Odds ‘n Sods:

Thanks to Eric B. for potting this: Study shows fuel cell cars still 15 years away at best

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SF in Hawaii forwarded this video link: Jim Rogers Speaks the Truth about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

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Wolf sent us this: Merrill Drops After $4.65 Billion Second-Quarter Loss, the same day that Cheryl sent us this: Citigroup posts $2.5B loss, but beats expectations. It seems neither the brokers nor the banksters are faring well in this credit-starved environment.

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JT flagged this one from The Daily Telegraph: Africa’s Oil Boom Shifts Balance of Power





Note from JWR:

I’m posting things early today, since we are going in to town where The Memsahib will be seeing the doctors. Thanks for your many e-mails of support and your continuing prayers.



Letter Re: The Tomato Rebuild–Machining Technology is Crucial to Modern Society, by Thomas G.

Jim,
After reading the recent letter by Thomas G, I felt compelled to offer a response to demystify some of the technologies he talked about. First, I am a tool and die maker for an ammunition manufacturer. If it’s broken, I fix it, if we need it, but can’t buy it, I design and make it.

From reloading dies, case feeders, powder measures, primer feeders, cold header press parts, I have done a lot. So I feel somewhat qualified to shed some light onto how things are done. I’ll start basic, and then work up to complex.

Aside from the technology of making metal, the most basic component is arguably the screw, or the nut and bolt. While these can be made on a lathe, that’s simply not practical in the world of mass production. Since at least the turn of the previous century (1800-1900) bolts have been made using machines called headers and rollers. Headers come in two forms, cold and hot. A cold header is typically used for making bolts, these take wire (and by wire, I mean form, not size) the wire is then cut, and pushed into a die. A forming die will then come down and crush the wire that sticks outside the base die, this forms the bolt head, this can also be done for nails, rivets, screws etc. In the case of bolts and screws they are then dropped into a thread rolling machine. This is a device which has two panels which have flattened threads cut onto them, the bolt rolls between the two panels and is threaded.

Nuts are made by hot-heading. A slug of wire is heated until it’s pliable, and is then smashed into a form. When it’s cooled it’s then threaded using a tap.

Gears are made on machines called hobbers, but can be made on a horizontal mill, or a shaper with an indexing head. The hobber works by holding a gear blank between centers, and then has a cutter that rotates above the gear. Once a gear is made, it can be used as a template for casting more, either die cast, or sand cast, depends on size and material.

A lathe is a fairly basic machine, if anyone has ever seen a wood lathe, a metal lathe works on the same principle. If you can build a wood lathe, you can build a metal lathe in a number of iterations. Given the scrap available from even a post-collapse society cobbling a functional lathe together should be fairly easy. The same applies to a mill.

For those who have interest, I suggest checking out the gingery machines web site, and perhaps even buying the book set. While a long time ago I decided it was easier to buy and rehab an old lathe than to build a new one, the books will give even the novice user a good idea about how machines are made.

It is important to note that most machine tools were conceived back in the 1800s. With a few decent measuring tools, almost anything can be made. The greatest thing about the age we live in currently is our ability to measure. If you have a few decent sets of dial calipers, a few dial indicators, a pyrometer (for heat treating) and a stop watch, you can produce just about anything you need.

At times after reading “Patriots” I laugh at the [refugee] character who was the machinist, (Lon Porter) since he carried his tools around in a bicycle trailer. While one tool box may satisfy the storage space required for some measuring tools, it would take a truck to move all of the various tools (tool bits, drill bits, mills, punches, indicators, angle finders,
etc) that I would consider ideal for a post-apocalyptic machine shop.- AVL



Letter Re: PetroMax Kerosene Lanterns

Hi Jim,
I figured I’d better write about my experience with PetroMax (BriteLyt) Kerosene lanterns.
I’ve had their 150CP (Candle Power) (100 watts of light) for a couple years now and really like it.
BriteLyt is now providing their 500CP (400 watts of light ) to the US Government as Model MR-2 with a federal stock number.
BTW they also make a nice 11,000 BTU kerosene stove which they are also making for the government.
So I got two of the new USG MR-2s and tried them out. Right away I had a problem!

As you know, I’m [living and own a retreat at] at 6,600 feet MSL and 9,800 feet MSL. (I should have picked up on this earlier. Altitude! Lack of air! Ha!) Okay, sometimes I can be slow witted.

Anyway, I had a miserable time of it with these two lamps. If I’d have been at sea level, I wouldn’t have had any problems.
Working with BriteLyt, I used the jets for their 150CP lamp and now the MR-2s series work great at my altitude. I’m going to try their 350CP jets (a little bigger gas flow) and see how they work. More light should be the result. Actually, I like the way the 150CP jets work.

How great are these lamps? Really great.
Nice light! Absolutely. [Because of the intense glare,] I highly recommend the lampshade style reflector.
Burn anything. Gasoline, Paint thinner, kerosene, diesel, JP-8. What do you have, I’d probably try it in these lamps.

The word I’ve got from my research worldwide is “If you have a PetroMax that works well, it’ll be a thing of joy for a lifetime.”
BTW, repair parts are really inexpensive and worth putting in a supply if you get these lamps. As you know, the [US] military has geared up for exclusively JP-8 and done away with gasoline, except for those darned never-worked-right gasoline lamps. Now one more thing is JP-8 capable. A lantern that burns JP-8 diesel.

I heard we had some boys freeze to death in Afghanistan last year and the inclusion of the kerosene stove will make sure that doesn’t happen again. With the kerosene stove in a pit under a tent or tarp, you’re not gonna freeze.

All in all, for a good prep, I recommend these lamps. However, as with all technology, toy with them and learn the little quirks that they have. Overall, I’m well pleased especially with the [large quantity of] diesel I have put away.

I’ll update you when I get the 350CP jets and also when I can get one of their stoves. – The Army Aviator



Odds ‘n Sods:

Thanks to Cheryl for sending a link to an article that describes how more banks are in trouble. These include: Wachovia (downgraded on the 15th), WaMu, National City Corp., and U.S. Bancorp

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Eric sent a link to an editorial from The Des Moines Register: Help farmers, consumers: Revive grain reserve

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KMA spotted an article in The Economist titled Peak Oil, The Only Way is Down.

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John T. sent us a link to an article that is a sign of the times: Pakistani Investors Stone Exchange as Stocks Plunge



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“If you ever hear a government official come out and say that an institution is fine, you know it’s time to get your money out because history shows they’re likely lying. Look what happened with Fannie and Freddie. The government said everything was fine right up to the day the US Treasury dropped the biggest government bailout of all time on the American taxpayer. The bill for Fannie, Freddie and the bank failures could cost the taxpayer over $400 billion. (That’s your money, of course.)”. – Richard Benson in: Is Your Money Safe?



Note from JWR:

The high bid in the current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is $500. This auction is for a big mixed lot: a NukAlert radiation detector, donated by KI4U–a $160 value), a DVD of 480 E-books on Alternative Energy (donated by WK Books–a $25 value), and the following package of survival gear all kindly donated by CampingSurvival.com: One case of MREs, one pack of water purifications tablets, a bottle of colloidal silver, a fire starter, a bottle of potassium iodate tablets, an emergency dental kit, a pack of “Shower in a bag” bath wipes, and one messenger bag to pack it in.



Letter Re: A Reminder to Readers About Botulism

Jim,
Feel free to post the following if you think it would be of help and interest.

Bulging cans with botulism are worse than most think. While bulging cans of food are relatively rare and most everybody knows that any bulging can should be discarded, few know just how seriously dangerous they can become if opened or accidentally ruptured. Botulism is so extremely deadly, it must be suspect in all bulging cans and they must not only be discarded, but put away from anyone else. Botulinum toxin is one of the most lethal substances known to man, as seen in this CDC article. When food is in short supply some will begin buying and using whatever old cans they can find and be eager not to waste anything too, thus many will also be tempted to open suspect bulging cans to better inspect the contents, before just rejecting it, and usually by smelling it.

People need to know that even a single small whiff of Botulinum toxin, especially when concentrated and released from a pressurized bulging can, can kill you stone dead in a few paralyzing hours, it’s truly that deadly. Please warn people at every opportunity to never fool with any suspect cans and to dispose of them as if a live grenade, where no one will come across them either. – Shane Connor, www.ki4u.com



Letter Re: The Cost of Things to Come

We are in a simultaneously deflationary and inflationary situation.
The deflationary forces are:
1) We’ve been a credit based society and with less credit available, less purchasing will happen driving down prices.
2) Most people have most of their wealth in their home, their stocks and their banks (Indy Mac anyone?), all decreasing in value thus putting the brakes on discretionary purchasing driving down prices.

The inflationary forces are:
1) The rising price of oil raises transportation and manufacturing costs for everything.
2) The increasing population and decreasing supply of commodities (food, metals etc.) increases prices.
3) The Fed cannot raise the interest rate and slow down inflation without causing an even worse housing collapse.

With two opposite forces pulling on the economy, for a time we have had a dynamic stasis as the forces balanced each other. Now these two forces are literally tearing the fabric of the economy asunder.

On one side, anything available that is sold in the international marketplace or has intrinsic value will increase in price.
This means food, oil, ammo, metals, commodities. This is due to the loss of the value of the dollar and the fact that the demand for these items is less negotiable. On the continuum, you must have food, and you’d really like not to freeze this winter due to lack of heating oil.

You, along with six billion other people will do what you have to, in order to continue to eat but do you really need that 40″ television, a dinner out or a vacation or…
Anything that is sold exclusively locally (not including commodities), and is discretionary will begin to decrease in price.
Expect deep discounts as stores that do not have international presences liquidate inventory to cover expenses. Have you been to [shop at] The Sharper Image lately?
This includes anything that people own and don’t really need such as: Trucks, cars, boats, electronics etc…

Consider what you do for a living. If you have hard skills (plumbing, gardening, medical), your skills are non-discretionary. You will be needed and your prices can rise with the prices of commodities.

If you are a consultant, artist, analyst, if you have a store that sells non-essentials, you’re vocation is discretionary. Your prices will likely go down if you want to attract work.- SF in Hawaii



Letter Re: The Backwoods Home Magazine Anthologies

Jim,

I recently purchased Backwoods Home’s “The Affordable Whole Shebang” offer which includes printed anthologies of Backwoods Home starting from year one to the present (13 years) as well as 11 CD-ROMs packed full of information: recipes, alternative energy, firearms info, preparedness guide, etc. The CD-ROMs include a partial electronic anthology of the magazine (years 7-14) for easy portability.

I was very impressed by the sheer volume of reading material for only $257! I am a voracious reader and it will take quite a while for me to consume it all. I highly recommend this fantastic offer and feel that not only is it entertaining to read, it is very informative as well. This is an important addition to the preparedness library. I’m not associated with the magazine–just a satisfied reader. – Rob M.



Odds ‘n Sods:

Downturn gains steam as inflation roars ahead

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Cheryl N. sent us this: Fears Over Safety in Savings Triggers Panic in US

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Jason M. flagged this: ‘Flying IEDs’ Pose New Iraq Threat. (OBTW, I’ve had the acronym “UAVIED” in the SurvivalBlog Glossary since August of 2005. Terrorists may soon use radio-controlled planes–from the size of light model planes, on up–packed with explosives.)

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The International Forecaster anticipates “A Complete and Systemic Breakdown” of the US and world financial systems and economies. (Kudos to Kevin A. for finding that item.)





Note from JWR:

The high bid in the current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is $390. This auction is for a big mixed lot: a NukAlert radiation detector, donated by KI4U–a $160 value), a DVD of 480 E-books on Alternative Energy (donated by WK Books–a $25 value), and the following package of survival gear all kindly donated by CampingSurvival.com: One case of MREs, one pack of water purifications tablets, a bottle of colloidal silver, a fire starter, a bottle of potassium iodate tablets, an emergency dental kit, a pack of “Shower in a bag” bath wipes, and one messenger bag to pack it in.



A July, 2008 Jim Rawles Interview by AlterNet

The following is a transcript of an interview that will soon be run at the popular left-of-center AlterNet web site:

AlterNet: Is survivalism a failure of community? A celebration of it?

JWR: I’d say that survivalism is indeed a celebration of community. It is the embodiment of America’s traditional “can do” spirit of self-reliance that settled the frontier.

AlterNet: Is it engineered by personal issues? Is it a racial, or economic phenomenon, in your opinion? Or both?

JWR: Survivalism [is a movement that] crosses all racial and religious lines. It is essentially color blind. For 99% of us, we could care less about the color of someone’s skin, but we care a lot about about including people with valuable skill sets. The preparedness movement is simply a rational quest for family and community level self-sufficiency in an increasingly dangerous world. There is unfortunately a very small but very vocal minority that are disgustingly racist idiots. I’m sad to say that they also call themselves survivalists. They get an inordinate amount of press coverage, making that 1% look much larger than it really is. In my opinion they should be ignored and shunned, and I certainly don’t give them a platform on SurvivalBlog.

The economic cross section of SurvivalBlog readers is also amazing. We have working class readers that a worried about how they are going to make their next car payment posting alongside surgeons and entrepreneurs. We have both starving students and Little Old Lady pensioners. The readership is also global. We have regular readers in more than 90 countries. But even with this diversity, we all get along. [I didn’t mention that I also edit out a lot of rants and foul language from the readers’ letters that I post.] Part of this is the realization that the next Great Depression will be a tremendous “leveler”.

AlterNet: Do you think survivalism is a rational response to our current crises?

JWR: Absolutely.

AlterNet: After all, we have an administration with minority support that is ruining the economy and world without a care for what its majority thinks. Do you think the unilateral policies of America over the last several years has contributed to the mindset? Or is it just gun nuts going too far?

JWR: There is greater interest in preparedness these days because the fragility of our economy, the lengthening chains of supply, and the complexity of the technological infrastructure have become apparent to a broader cross-section of the populous. All parties concerned may not realize it, but the left-of-center Greens that are calling for “local economy” and encouraging farmer’s markets actually have a tremendous amount in common with John Birchers that are decrying globalist bankers, and likewise with gun owners that complain about their constitutional rights being trampled. At the core, for all of them, is the recognition that big, entrenched, centralized power structures are not the answer. They are, in fact, the problem.

AlterNet: What do survivalists get right?

JWR: They recognize that smaller scale economies and older technologies are appropriate. They also recognize that meaningful solutions are found at the community level–not from top-down, command-driven bureaucracies.

AlterNet: What do they get wrong?

JWR: A minority of SurvivalBlog readers are over-enamored with gadgets. I call these folks “Mall Ninjas.” They live in a fantasy world. In the real world, skills beat gadgets every time. But in our “big box” consumerist economy, some people mistakenly think that they can buy happiness, or–in this case–buy preparedness. A big, expensive pile of “tacticool” gear without the hard-earned skills to know how to use it is essentially useless. It takes time and a requisite expenditure of sweat to really know how to tend a garden, hang a gate, cut a cord of firewood, or field dress a deer. Some people have simply never done something so basic as digging a post hole in rocky ground, and they will break down in tears if they ever have to. Their fancy gear can’t do everything for them.

AlterNet: Do you think Peak Oil and climate crisis will team up to smack the American Dream down?

JWR: I think that Peak Oil is already upon us, but I’m reserving my opinion on climate change, since there is so much conflicting evidence.

AlterNet: Do you think technology can save us?

JWR: I don’t think that technology–in and of itself–can save us. Again, it is practical skills, not gadgets that will help us to pull through tough times. This not to say that I don’t recommend some high tech items like photovoltaic panels. Life without them in a “grid down” situation would be very uncomfortable. I’m also a great fan of hydrogen fuel cell, alcohol gas, and biodigester technologies. But those will likely be a case of “too little, too late.” If anything, life in the 22nd Century will more closely resemble the 19th Century than it will the 20th Century. I predict that it will be a century of steam and horse power. And between now and then? Sadly, the 21st Century will probably be remembered as the time of the Great Die-Off.

AlterNet: Are Americans too spoiled to change their ways before it is too late?

JWR: For some Americans, yes. But others are clearly showing the wisdom to “Get Out of Dodge” while the getting is good, by moving to lightly-populated “retreat” regions to genuinely pursue self-sufficiency. Again, these people come from all across the political spectrum. I think that in the the next couple of decades we will witness the formation of some remarkable intentional communities (a.k.a “gulches”) that will feature some unlikely bedfellows: Anarchists and Ayn Rand readers, Mennonites and gun enthusiasts, Luddites and techno-geeks, fundamentalist Christians and Gaia worshippers, tree huggers and horse wranglers. We welcome them all. I have been pleasantly surprised to see SurvivalBlog readers set aside some very sharp differences for the sake of a common goal. That consensus is one of the things that gives me the most pride about SurvivalBlog. I’m a conservative Christian but that doesn’t mean that I’m not willing to listen to a leftist agnostic, if he has something useful and productive to say about practical preparedness and self-sufficiency.

AlterNet: And what do you see as the chief threats legitimizing a survivalist defense?

JWR: The threats are clearly manifold: Peak Oil, a derivatives meltdown, pandemics, economic instability, food shortages, stock market and currency collapses, terrorism, bank runs, state sponsored global war, rationing, and more. In a situation this precarious I believe that it is remarkably naive to think that mere geographical isolation will be sufficient to shelter communities from the predation of evildoers. I strongly believe in turning the other cheek, but as a realist, I also believe in Rule 308. (See the SurvivalBlog Glossary.)

AlterNet: What are you [personally] preparing for?

JWR: All of the above. I read Psalm 91 regularly. I encourage AlterNet readers to take a look at the SurvivalBlog “Precepts” page for the details of my philosophy and envisioned scenarios. Again, I believe that we have more in common than we have differences.