Odds ‘n Sods:

Speaking at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming conclave in August, Yale University Professor Dr. Robert Shiller said that residential house prices might fall as much as 50% in some former real estate boom areas. As evidence, he cited how much home prices have escalated in comparison to rents. Personally, I think that 50% is an optimistic figure. Given the pendulum-like nature of macro market swings, I think that prices in some cities like Phoenix and San Diego may drop at much as 65% from their peak. And it may take five or six years before prices hit bottom. I predict that in two years, the newspapers will be filled with “tales of woe” human interest stories, with plenty of articles about home owners that are upside down in their mortgages, in default and walking away from their McMansions. They’ll leave it to the bankers to tidy up the mess.

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A hat tip to SJC for sending us this Financial Times article link: IMF head warns on impact of credit crisis

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Chris D. recommended this article at the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) site: Treasury claims power to seize gold and silver — and everything else

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The folks at Safecastle (one of our most loyal advertisers) mentioned in an e-mail that they have put some of their most popular items together onto a single Practical Holiday Gifts page. I’m sure that any of your preparedness-minded friends or relatives would be tickled to receive any of those items as Christmas gifts.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"But a constitution of government, once changed from freedom, can never be restored. Liberty , once lost, is lost forever." – John Adams, Letter to Abigail Adams, July 7, 1775

Note from JWR:

A reminder that the special “six pack sale” for autographed copies of my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse” is still underway. The sale price of a box of six books is now just $90, postage paid. (Normally they are $22 per copy, but during this sale you get six autographed copies for $90, mailed in a Priority Mail Flat Rate box, sent to anywhere in the United States, including APO/FPO addresses.) This sale ends on October 31st. This is your chance to buy some extra copies for Christmas presents.

Letter Re: BBC/Discovery Channel Documentary on Asian Avian Flu

Hi Jim,
Last night I watched a superb two hour documentary on one of the science [cable television] channels about the coming avian flu pandemic. It was a co-production of the Discovery Channel and the BBC, so I’m sure everyone with cable television will have a chance to see it.

The documentary weaved between the predictions and projections of top epidemiologists, and a fictionalized account of the breakout in Cambodia, and its spread worldwide. The 1918 Spanish Flue pandemic was also used as a major point of comparison. All of the experts on the show said it is not a question of if, but when the bird flu pandemic explodes. They expect a 10% mortality rate minimum among the infected, with our health system totally overwhelmed. The antiviral medicine Tamiflu won’t prevent but will only slightly delay the pandemic, because it has no carry over effect. That is, as soon as Tamiflu stocks run out, the pandemic carries on at full speed. They expect the pandemic to launch worldwide within a month of the H5N[“X”] virus making one or two minor mutations to allow rapid human to human transmission. The new pandemic will spread much more rapidly than the 1918 [influenza] virus, because of the speed of jet travel. From the first bird flu first case in the USA to every city and town in pandemic crisis will take 90 days, according to their projections. In sum, it may take only four months from virus mutation to completely blanketing every town in the USA. Schools will be shut down, and at least 40% of workers will be off of the job, causing severe economic fallout.

They even showed and interviewed a suburban couple who are concerned enough to lay in “preps” for four months at home, including a generator, fuel, a water well etc. For once, they were not portrayed as “survivalist kooks” but more in the light of, “everyone should be making a plan like this.” A main point of the show is that ordinary people just cannot grasp the speed with which this pandemic is expected to breakout and travel worldwide, or the fact that there is no medical solution to the problem. It will have to burn itself out, with many tens of millions dying. The purpose of the documentary was given as causing people to ponder and discuss the issue and begin to make their own preparations. Once the mutation and breakout happens, events will proceed much too rapidly to make decent preparations at the national, local or even family level.

I would highly recommend that all SurvivalBlog readers keep and eye out for this documentary and watch it very carefully. – Matt Bracken

Letter Re: Home Alcohol Distillation

Jim–
I have been fascinated by the material in the book “Alcohol Can Be a Gas!”. My first walk-through was a bit disappointing because of what I thought was a lot of fluff until I got to how to use alcohol as a fuel. Then I went back and read about distilling alcohol. Then I realized the author was saying alcohol is a by-product (he uses the term “co-product” to show all the products have value). Then he explains how a small farm operation could be self-sustaining, power, heat, fuel and food. Sounds like a survivalist’s dream. I’m anxious to go back and read everything in the book.It is 500+ pages. It is $46, but worth it (I don’t have a dawg in this hunt.)

Chapter 12 “The micro-distillery farm” is the one that will get you thinking: waste heat from the still warms the mushroom facility; mushrooms are growing on the leftover mash; fish are thriving on the liquid part of the mash leftovers; earthworms get 1/3 of the mash to make castings. Alcohol fuels all the machinery, plus heats food, and on and on. Well, you’ve got to read it to catch it all. – Bob

Letter Re: Silver as an Inflation Hedge

Hi Jim,
First of all please pardon my English but this language is hard to learn, especially being from Cuba.
Let’s talk about silver. As a survivalist one of my tools is silver and at this time I am using that survivalist tool. At this time my cost per gallon of gasoline is of $1.21 and the reason for that is that I pre-paid for my gasoline for the next two years in one oz silver rounds.

Back in 1972 I paid $4.90 per ounce for my silver and in 1980 I sold it for $63.65 per ounce. I started once again in 1982 and stopped in 2002 when I had all that I needed. (There is a difference between “need” and “want”) and my average cost was $5.16 per ounce

At first cash will be king because that’s all that the American public is familiar with but with time they will educate themselves and precious metals will be king.
As soon as the general public in China and India start to buy silver the the price will explode, I don’t say the US because most people here are already broke. As time goes by my silver will go up in price and I will pay less for my gasoline and other items which will be very hard to get in the future. There is a lot more but I hope that you get the general idea.
PS: I already have food for 4-1/2 years, water for free from a creek, live out in the woods and I’m ready to rock and roll. “To be ready is not”. – Ponce

Cold Weather Survival Tips, by David in Israel

James,
Winter is coming [in the northern hemisphere]. An important skill is treating and preventing cold exposure, especially if a person is disabled and on the ground. The ground steals heat through direct conduction and by absorption of moisture.
Always go out well fed, include plenty of protein, copious warm hydrating liquids, and fats. Together these break down in a heat generating reaction as well as providing large amounts of energy for more heat generation.

Have a way to make a warm drink. A Thermos is skimping, better a small stove that is easily lit and kettle that will let you melt snow and make hot water to drink, this saves your body from having to heat
your drinks and also raises your core temperature if you get chilled or worse. Cold drinks bring down body temperature and the metabolism required to heat it to body temperature nearly requires as much water as you are consuming, un-melted snow is actually hydration negative due to the metabolism [required] to bring it to body temperature.

Insulate from the ground, dry grass leaves, seat pad foam, clothing, whatever. The ground will steal your body heat quickly.

Share warmth with a friend or more, huddle, hug, stack up as injuries allow.

Protect the heat loss areas. Cover first the head, then armpits, groin, trunk, and finally the extremities.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Writing in the September, 2007 issue of The American Rifleman magazine, Walter J. Kuleck reports that there is a logistical support problem for the thousands of M14 rifles that have been issued to US troops deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan. Kuleck writes: “…there is essentially no support available through Department of Defense channels–no parts, accessories, magazines, tools or documentation beyond a new Preventive Maintenance [PM] Magazine comic book and a 40-year-old manuals printed from on-line PDF files. The Army has made some efforts to buy back parts surplused decades ago and to purchase new walnut stocks, for example. Most components, however, are either acquired by individuals using personal funds or by combat units directly from stateside sources or scavenged from cannibalized rifles.” I have heard from three different “designated marksman” soldiers that are SurvivalBlog readers that they’ve had to beg relatives in the states to buy spare M14 magazines and mail them to their APO address, because they were issued an M14 with just a scant few magazines. One of them told me that he was issued his M14 with just one magazine. What a sad state of affairs. Our troops deserve better logistical support!

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AVS suggested an MP3 file of a sermon by Dr. Robert Dean of West Houston Bible Church, on our Founding Fathers and Genuine Freedom.

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Stephen in Iraq sent us this article on Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD): First it was honeybees. Now it is decimating native Bumblebees.

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By way of SHTF Daily comes the story of a modern day ghost town: ‘Nobody expected this to continue’ — it didn’t Phoenix suburb shows what can happen when gambling on housing boom. Just as I had predicted, the folks upside down in their mortgages are starting to just walk away.

Note from JWR:

The bidding is still at $500 in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction, for a scarce pre-1899 antique Finnish M39 Mosin Nagant rifle from my personal collection. This rifle was rebarreled by Valmet during WWII, and is in excellent condition. It comes with a replica bayonet, original sling, and original muzzle cap. Since the receiver for this rifle was made in 1898, it can be mailed directly to the winning bidder’s doorstep, with no FFL paperwork! The auction ends on October 15th.. Just e-mail us your bid.

Letter Re: Night Vision Gear for a Long Term Collapse

Sir:
I’d appreciate your advice. I am in the process of getting my family dialed-in for a long term collapse. (My main concern is a post-Peak Oil economic collapse.) Since I expect “the problem” to last at least 5 or 10 years before the economy gets reorganized (at a much lower level, and prolly much more dispersed and localized), I have worries that if I get a Starlight scope or goggles that they will be inop[erative] within three or four years, given constant use. From all that I’ve read, even the best [light amplification] tubes eventually burn out. I’m also worried that it would take 40 or 50 rechargeable batteries–even those gee whiz nickel hydride “no memory” batteries to last me [through the scenario]. What is the best alternative for someone looking at a 10+ year problem, yet still wanting the advantages of Starlight-type technology? And is there anything else that is low tech (other than friggin’ bells on strings) that I can use for night time defense of a retreat out in the wilds? Thank You Sir, – Allen D.

JWR Replies: There are a couple of alternatives that I can suggest. First, is buying a brand new “low hours” Gen 2 or Gen 3 night vision scope that uses standard type AA batteries plus a spare intensifier tube, and of course plenty of spare batteries. My recommended suppliers for Starlight weapon sights and goggles are JRH Enterprises and Ready Made Resources. For full mil-spec units as well as spare intensifier tubes, talk to STANO Components. For additional rechargeable batteries at a discount price, contact All-Battery.com. As previously mentioned in SurvivalBlog, every well-prepared family should also have a small PV panel for battery charging.

One lower technology alternative to Starlight technology, as described in my novel “Patriots”, is tritium-lit scopes, such as those made by Trijicon. I am often quoted as saying that I consider them “the next best thing to a starlight scope.” I still do. We have six of these scopes on our rifles here at the Rawles Ranch, including three ACOGs. The half-life of tritium (a gaseous isotope of hydrogen) is 11.2 years, meaning that through radioactive decay they have one-half of their original brightness after 11.2 years. So the practical effective life of a tritium scope is 22 years, and the practical effective life of tritium iron sights is 33+ years. (The latter are much too bright for my liking when new from the factory. We have three Colt M1911 series .45 ACP handguns that were retrofitted with factory-fresh Trijicon iron sights in 1994. Now, some 13 years later, in my opinion they have only just now “mellowed” (by radioactive decay) to the point that I consider them practical for tactical night shooting. I probably won’t have them replaced until around 2024. Trijicon scopes and iron sights are available at quite competitive prices from CGW. (One of our advertisers.) Tell them that Jim Rawles sent you.

Letter Re: Advice for Newbie on Food Dehydrating, Canning, and Storage

Sir:
I started reading SurvivalBlog just two months ago,following a recommendation by an elder at my Baptist church. Your blog has become a daily habit. I just recently signed up for $3 a month for the 10 Cent Challenge. Right now, I’m “peeling back the onion layers”–going through the [SurvivalBlog] archives. I am blown away by how much knowledge you have amassed there, all free. Thank you!

I’m feeling more than a bit overwhelmed by the enormity of what I now realize that I need to do, to prepare for my family [for] disasters. I wasn’t raised on a farm, or even in the suburbs with a vegetable garden. (Although I now live in the ‘burbs, I’ve never planted anything but flowers and ornamental bushes.) At the core, I’m from the Microwave Swanson’s Dinners and Pop-Tarts culture. I don’t have Clue One about how to do canning or dehydration of fruits and veg[etables]. Where do I start? What brand of home sealer or vacuum packer gizmo do you recommend?

Most importantly: My wife and I have two teenage boys, and they eat like horses. I have a pretty big budget (I’m in middle management and make six figures), so I don’t mind just buying most of what I need off the shelf–although I would like to get one of the Excalibur dehydration units that you mentioned. That sounds like a fun project my family on weekends. But for the storage food, I really don’t know where to start. Can I buy most of my food for storage at a “club” store like Sam’s Club or Costco? (We are already Costco members.)

Also, how to I calculate the storage [life] of foods? (I don’t want anything to go bad before we use it up.)

Thanks for your time, and all that you do in putting SurvivalBlog together. It is an amazing resource. – Bruce L.

JWR Replies: Don’t feel overwhelmed. Just make a “list of lists” and start preparing systematically. A good starting point is to get a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. It is tailored for someone walking into a Costco–or similar “Big Box” store–and buying a one year food supply right off the shelf. I even organized it based on the layout of a Costco store, and I talked specifically about what items are available in each section of the store. There are a surprising number of foods sold at “Big Box” stores that have long storage lives. The course binder includes an appendix on the anticipated storage life of dozens of different foods, and it differentiates between the various packaging methods.

Home canning is a subject that would take a book to explain in detail, so for this letter I’ll suffice with a couple of good references: The first is the book The Encyclopedia of Country Living by Carla Emery, from Sasquatch Books. Be sure to get the ninth or later edition. Mentioned at our Bookshelf page, and also available through our Catalog page if you can’t find a copy locally.) The second book on canning that I recommend is Keeping The Harvest. by Nancy Thurber, Gretchen Mead, and Nancy Chioffi. (Published by Storey Books.)

I do indeed recommend the Excalibur brand dehydrator. If buying one of them these days, I would opt for their big 600 watt ED-2900 model. We have a smaller, older model here at the Rawles Ranch that has been in regular use for about 20 years. And I expect it to last 20 more! (They are quite sturdy.)

For packaging the foods that you dehydrate, I recommend the Food Saver brand vacuum sealer, made by Tilia. These, coincidentally, are available at Costco stores. Stock up on plenty of extra bags. We prefer to buy the bag material in continuous rolls. We just cut them to size, as needed. We also use ours quite a bit to evacuate the air from canning jars, using the Mason Jar Adaptors. We use large 2 quart Mason-type jars to vacuum pack lots of foods–mostly grains, beans, and dehydrated goodies. OBTW, as a back-up for periods when grid power is not available, I also recommend buying a Tilia hand-pump sealer. They are a bit more time consuming to use than the 120 VAC “Food Saver”, but they work well and cost just $20 if you shop around.

Letter Re: Advice on Survival Retreats and Bug Out Vehicles

Hi Mr Rawles,
I saw the letter from someone that was considering an Isuzu Rodeo as a BOV. That is an awful decision. They do not get “30-35 MPG”. (Look up the EPA ratings). They are not reliable, they are cheap because of their poor quality, and parts are rare.

If I were buying a BOV (which I’m not, because I’m in college at the moment.) I would aim for a 1997 Ford Explorer with the V-8, which is compatible with the Mustang’s 302 for after-market parts (however, transmissions on the V-8 were upgraded in 1998 because of an issue with the clutch). The pre-1996 second generation V-6 Explorers had notoriously bad automatic transmissions (which is what caused mine to be junked at 233,000 miles, everything else was solid), but the 5-Speed automatic was much improved. Towards 1998 and 1999, as demand for Explorers was going up quality took a backseat to building as many as possible (this is a rule of thumb I follow for SUVs made from 1998 to 2000 during the dot com boom).

As a second option, a Ford Excursion or Chevy Suburban/GMC Yukon with a diesel would be a good option simply because they were the only major SUVs sold with a diesel and diesel has its inherent advantages, but with less maneuverability and off road handing due to longer wheelbase, and higher weight, the excursion weighs in at over 7,000 pounds. A stock Ford Excursion is useless in mud (firsthand experience), if one plans on using it as a BOV, upgrade the suspension and tires. I would steer away from any newer generation SUVs (2002+ Explorer, 2003+ Expedition, 2000+ Tahoe/Yukon/Suburban, 2002+ Trailblazer/Envoy, etc.) because they were redesigned to get better rollover ratings at the expense of off-road capability, something that literally 99% of SUV owners never did.
Land Rovers should be turned away from because of awful reliability and rare parts. Toyota Land Cruisers and Sequoias are venerable, but are rare. Luxury SUVs such as the Lincoln Navigator, (identical to the Ford Expedition, a decent BOV but built at the wrong times), Cadillac Escalade, GMC Yukon Denali, Lexus RX or GX, will draw added attention, and one would be wise to avoid that “He has a Luxury SUV, I bet he can afford tons of extra food.” They may have more options and be more comfortable, but every regular SUV counterpart had similar options, but without the Luxury nameplate.
Jeep Cherokees (discontinued) and Grand Cherokees are both very good SUVs in terms of handing off road, but were not as common as the Explorer, my logic being, its better to have a BOV that one can find parts for easily, they are however, more reliable. Some newer models are not “trail rated” and should be avoided if it is to be used as a BOV. Regards, – Sam

JWR Replies: For the record, according to All AutoReviews.com’s review of the 2008 Isuzu Rodeo, the two wheel drive version (with 2.2 Liter engine) gets 19 MPG in the city and 23 MPG on the highway, while the four wheel drive 3.2-liter, V6, 205-horsepower engine gets a pitiful 16 MPG in the city and 20 MPG on the highway. That is a hair less than a 4WD Ford Explorer!