Odds ‘n Sods:

Bush to outline 5-year mortgage rate freeze plan. (Don’t miss the reader’s comments below the article.) My comments: Here comes the mega-meddling. Cui bono? And who will bear the cost? I suspect that it will be us, the taxpayers. If so, we will be bailing out someone else’s “I bought a house that I couldn’t afford at the top of the market, and now I can’t sell it” uncontrolled instant gratification and greed. How charming.

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In one of his recent DownRange.tv audio podcasts, host Michael Bane (well-known for his “Shooting Gallery” television show on The Outdoor Channel) mentioned my novel “Patriots” in his list of favorite End of the World genre novels. Be sure check out Michael’s TV show and audio podcasts. He succeeds at being both informative and very entertaining. OBTW, don’t miss the links at Bane’s site to Jim Supica’s series of video tutorials on early double action cartridge revolvers. (A nice way to get familiar with some of the guns mentioned in my Pre-1899 FAQ.)

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Mike in Malaysia sent us this article link: Florida Just the First to Face National Run on the Bank

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I found this economic analysis from an Australian perspective, posted at Gold-Eagle.com: 2008…”Deeper, Darker, Scarier”

Note from JWR:

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Storm After-Action Report and More Thoughts on Western Washington as a Retreat Locale, by Countrytek

Introduction
I’m a life-long Western Washington resident – except for five years in Kansas & two in Berlin while in the U.S. Army. I’m the great-grandchild of Washington pioneers. I love this state – the ocean, mountains and fertile valleys – but what it has become — not so much.
This past weekend, (November 30 – December 1, 2007), the Olympic Peninsula of Washington state was hit by an arctic front from the Gulf of Alaska, dropping 3-6″ of snow in our area. The weather folks told us not to worry, that it wouldn’t last long, because we had a “Pineapple Express” blowing in from Hawaii. (If this were the other Left Coast, they’d call it a tropical depression — but up here in the Great North Wet, we don’t rate such notoriety, so they just call it a “Pineapple Express.”) The West coast of Washington (and parts of the North coast) experienced sustained hurricane force winds, with gusts as high as 130 mph in places. An aircraft landing at Boeing Field in Seattle recorded gusts of 140 knots at 4,000 feet on his approach.

I took one look at weather conditions this morning, and decided that it was a good day to hunker down and take care of me and mine. I called into work about two hours later. (Days when they expect bad weather, I get up extra early.). They said “Yeah, yeah, all the roads between here and there are closed . . . Have a great day!” They were right. The embankment above U.S. 101 slid out and across both the southbound and the northbound lanes. To make the picture complete, S.R. 8 was closed by slides, as well, so going the back roads to get to 8 to go around the slide on 101 was out of the question. My supervisor was more optimistic than me, and spent about ninety minutes in traffic snarls before getting turned around to go home.
So, anyway, for those of you who might be thinking that there are parts of the West side of Washington state that might make a good retreat, here’s the shakeout:
– U.S. 101 & S.R. 8 both closed by mudslides in multiple locations leaving only one route on or off the Olympic Peninsula: S.R. 3 via S.R. 16 from Tacoma, crossing the Tacoma Narrows bridge. (It wound up being choked down to one lane late in the day, due to flooding and mudslides.) All alternate secondary and county roads blocked by mudslides, flooding, fallen trees or washed-out bridges.
– At the end of the day, every river in Western Washington is above flood stage. The Skokomish River (always the first to flood, and the last back in its banks) is in a record flood from this event. (Mix heavy lowland snow with over 9″ of rain and unseasonably warm temperatures, and you get big water!) This means that you have flooding in every county in Western Washington.
– My county (Mason County ) lost its main feed from the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), putting the majority of the county in the dark for about eight hours. We had to wait for a BPA engineer to replace the blown breaker. I’m sure it’s much too complex for our county PUD engineers! (Funny! I live next door to one, and across the street from another, and both seem pretty competent to me.)
– Three small towns in Lewis County evacuated due to flooding.
– 20 miles of I-5 closed South of Chehalis (Lewis County) due to flooding.
– Hood Canal floating bridge closed due to high winds
– All North-South rail corridors blocked by slides or flooding
– Tahuya & Skokomish river valleys isolated due to mudslides and flooding
– Fire district had three separate relief centers set up. The problem was, none of the people who needed them could get to them, and rescue crews couldn’t get to the stranded people to rescue them. Entry into the isolated areas required a lot of chainsaw and bulldozer work.
– One beach community was evacuated by Coast Guard helicopter due to isolation by mudslides
– One death in Mason county, two in Grays Harbor. (Mudslide, falling tree, medical equipment made non-functional by power outage.)
– As of this writing, there are still about 1,000 people who are stranded and un-reachable by emergency services — including a woman in labor. (And this is just in my mostly rural county!)
– Very few grocery stores in Western Washington have backup generators, which means that if the power is off for more than a few hours, all refrigerated foods, dairy, and fresh meat must be disposed of — and, of course, is unavailable to feed hungry people.

Personal Actions:
– Had a breakfast of French toast so we got some warm food into us — just in case.
– Went out and stowed anything liable to blow away, including our Christmas tree and barbecue.
– Touched base with family and close friends
– Talked to my wife’s sister and brother-in-law on their return from their jobs in the Great Cesspool. (Known to the more urbane as Seattle.) They had to brave the Tacoma Narrows Bridge (Always an adventure in high winds! [JWR Adds: This bridge’s predecessors was the one that was made famous by the movie of its wild wind oscillation and collapse], drive to Bremerton, then back-track down S.R. 3 to get to their house and rental house that were both flooding. They reported that there were frequent encounters with water flowing over the road surface on S.R. 3.
– Talked one nephew out if taking the same route that my sister and brother-in-law came in, tried to talk another out of taking the back roads back to his house. He made it okay, but power is out and the creek is threatening. (God bless the man who designed 4-wheel drive!)
– Loaned an extra 100′ extension cord to brother-in-law sister so she could get power from their genset to their house.
– The BPA breaker blew about 10 o’clock, so we munched cold rations and read by sunlight until it was time to dig out flashlights and candles.
– Listened to local news on our hand-crank radio.
– Kept in touch with my brother-in-law’s siblings via hard-wire phone (No cellular service at all, which is not all that unusual here in “cell hell,” and – of course – cordless phones don’t work when there’s no power.)
– Gave ten gallons of water to my brother-in-law’s sister when she came back into town. (They’re on a well and chose to power the freezers and refrigerator instead of the well. they should consider getting a second [or larger] genset.)
– Lifted our Pepsis toward our next door neighbor’s house after the lights came back on an hour earlier than the last prediction.
– Checked the fridge and freezers to find everything as cold as if the power never hiccupped at all.
– Made dinner.
– Sat down at the PC to check for road closures for the morning and to compose this AAR.
This is yet another “100 year event.” Funny, those “100 year events” seem to be coming up every couple years nowadays. Global warming? Over-development? (Much formerly absorbent ground is now capped by spec houses, strip malls, big box stores and the asphalt that accompanies them.) Natural weather cycles? I don’t know. Could be a combination of all three.

Okay, that’s the feed-back on one event. Here are my other observations on Western Washington as a potential retreat locale:

Land: Due to the real estate bubble, this stuff is pretty precious. Good luck finding good land below $10,000 per acre. Expect to pay more. Finding land of any size is getting pretty difficult as well, as anything that’s twice the size of the minimum growth density (5-to-20 acres) gets sub-divided for spec houses or snapped up by conservation Non-Governmental Organization (NGOs). (Look for that to change somewhat now that the bubble has sprung a leak.) Expect unrealistic expectations from the sellers. The past 30 years have been spent in pursuit of the mythical California buyer (or green NGO) who can afford to drop multiple millions on the “right” place. Reality may set in on that front too — eventually. If you can find good land at a decent price, buy it! It won’t last long. Be careful about water — especially out here on the Olympic Peninsula. Either buy it with developed water (a working well), or make the sale contingent on both being able to develop a good water supply and being able to get a septic permit. (Yes! You can do this. Anything in writing is legal in a land transfer in Washington state — which means you need to read and understand all that fine print. Beware of [restrictive] covenants!)

Several things you need to bear in mind when looking for land:
– 44% of Washington’s land is in Federal hands.
– This includes the vast majority of the Olympic Peninsula – there’s a narrow band around the coast that’s in private hands – except for the dozen tribal reservations and the National Park.

– Big timber means something out here. Most of the large non-NGO private tracts belong to one of the big three timber companies: Simpson, Weyerhauser or Louisiana Pacific.

– NGO. Learn what it means. There are a lot of them out here. One stated goal is to acquire all the private land on the Olympic Peninsula and SW Washington and “rehabilitate it.” (That means get rid of the unwashed.) Which brings us to . . .

Regulatory Environment:Welcome to the Nanny state! Forget about throwing up a cordwood castle with “a little house out back.” Those days are long gone this side of the hump (and from what I’ve seen on my too infrequent trips over the hump, fading fast on the dry side [of Washington], too). Forget about being able to put in a gravity flow septic system. This is the land of the engineered system! Almost always above ground, usually including one or more [electrically-powered] pumping systems. If you buy developed land that includes an existing gravity-flow septic system, the baby that puppy! You do not want it to fail! Because, if it does, you will be putting in a very expensive engineered system to replace it.

System capacity is calculated by the number of bedrooms in your residence, so having a wink wink “den” is not unusual around here. Get creative! You can have sewing rooms, libraries, media rooms (Children are the ultimate media, after all — they are you writ on eternity . . . or at least the next generation.), or whatever non-sleeping purpose room you can think of — just do not exceed the number of bedrooms that your system is designed to carry. If you decided to “second-purpose” some of those non-bedrooms, it would be wise to find out about – and make friends with – the local septic pumping guy who can keep his mouth shut! (Hint: If he’s one of the County Planner’s brothers-in-law, he probably ain’t the guy you’re looking for!)

Think that’s the worst? Not hardly! Ever heard of “Critical Habitat Zones” or “Aquifer Recharge Areas?” This is new-speak for “We’re taking your land, and you get to pay for it!” It’s a toss-up for which is worse, because basically what it means is that the land-owner gets to pay for returning the land to some mythical “pre-aboriginal state,” Whatever in God’s creation that is supposed to be — and however some pencil-neck with a PhD is going to verify it! Because – unless I miss my mark – the only ones who are going to know what this land looked like before the aboriginal peoples got here would be the bears and God! I don’t think too many PhDs hereabouts confer with either. Oh, yeah . . . Once you’re finished paying for restoring your land to it’s long-previous pristine condition, you – nor none of your kith nor kin – may ever set foot on it again. Did I mention you do get to keep the inestimable privilege of paying taxes on said land that you were compelled to improve in a way that you might – or might not – agree with — and may never use again? It boggles this country boy’s mind, let me tell you!
I could go on and on . . . But at the risk of stretching your incredulity even further — Let’s jump to Politics!

Political Environment:
All policy is set by the Seattle set. If you think otherwise, you’re delusional and should seek proper assistance. Yes, we have some real conservatives hereabouts, but not enough to matter. It doesn’t help that most of the “loyal opposition” are more interested in sticking it to each other (in one sense or the other) than fighting the foes across the aisle. This state is the gold-bound proof to the theory that at least 85% of evangelical Christians refuse to register to vote or go to the polls. There are a lot of very nice Christian folk hereabouts – but either they don’t vote, or there’s a complete disconnect between their faith and their politics. So now that we’ve settled that little question, let’s look at the characteristics of a typical denizen of the Great Cesspool:
o Frequently seen at the statue of V.I. Lenin in Ballard
o Is a deep ecologist
o Supports radical feminism
o Believes that animals, trees and flowers are more valuable than children
o Is staunchly “pro-choice”
o Hung out/ sat-in upon / got lucky at “Red Square” whilst attending “The U”
o Has dabbled in Wicca, Earth Mother Worship, an Eastern religion, or is “spiritually sensitive”
o Probably a union Democrat, or the spawn thereof
o Drives – or covets – a high-end Japanese or European luxury/sport sedan, SUV, or hybrid vehicle
o Thinks most Christians need re-education, or at least intense sensitivity training
o Believes that the owning property is for the privileged — not the un-washed. (Guess which camp he/she/it falls in?)
o Rabidly anti-gun
o Radically Politically Correct (PC)
o Is certain that patriotism is a curable condition
o Voted for Kucinich and will vote for Obama
o Is convinced that Starbucks is a cultural center
o Thinks the U.N. is humanity’s only hope

Public Education:
Perennially over-funded and under-performing. Case-in-point: The top-rated public school district in the state has a 44% drop-out rate for boys. Girls do much better: 36%. Most districts turn out the barely-literate as their average students. What can one expect from a system that comes up with concepts like “compulsory volunteerism” Oh yeah, your kids can get extra credit for participating in an anti-war rally or an Act-Up event. My advice to anyone moving here that has children – or expects to have children – avoid the Washington public school system like the plague! Fortunately, we still have a pretty much hands-off homeschool environment here and some very good parochial schools. Raise ’em up right, teach them critical thinking skills, and there just might be some hope for this socialist’s paradise!

Media:
Bookmark your favorite conservative radio shows’ web sites! Because you are not going to hear them on the airwaves around here. To give you an idea which way the wet side media leans: A cat getting shot with a BB gun will be reported with more gravity and sympathy than the beating death of a child or the gang rape of a young woman. ‘Nuff said?

Culture?
– We got tons of it! As long as it’s oh-so properly PC.

Crime:
– Can we say “methamphetamine?” Keep an eye on your back 40. It may sprout a meth lab. (So might the neighbor’s rental property.)
– High rates of burglary and car theft
– Robberies and home invasions up
– I.D. theft on the rise

Hazards
– The Economic Bubble os due to burst. We’ve always had a boom and bust economy here, and it’s been riding high for too long.

– Earthquake
o We’re overdue for “The Big One.” This is especially true for the Cascadia Subduction Zone and the Seattle fault complex.
· Either of these could spawn dramatic Tsunamis. Avoid locating in low-lying costal areas or areas prone to slippage. You really want to learn about the Cascadia Subduction Zone and plan accordingly. An event on this system will be a regional event — from Alaska to mid-California. Outlying areas will be on their own – probably for at least a month – due to bridge collapses and land slides. Also, aid will go first to where it does the most good for the highest number. I’m thinking that means the Puget Sound Metroplex, Portland, the Oregon I-5 corridor and San Francisco.
· We’re talking a magnitude 9+ event with a duration of 10-15 minutes at the slip point, which translates to a 6-8 magnitude event of the same duration in the heavy population centers, possibly followed by a Tsunami measured in the hundreds of feet.
· Historically, there’s been an event on this system every 300 years or so. The last one was in the mid-1700s. You do the math.

o Volcanoes
– All the major Cascade and Olympic mountain range peaks are volcanoes. Most are active.

– The Golden Horde
o The Puget Sound Metroplex currently holds 3.5 million people. It is expected to grow to ~ 5.2 million by 2025
– Most have supplies for no more than three days – if any at all
– Most are used to an upper-middle class existence with all the urban/suburban amenities.
– Most are familiar with the Cascade and Olympic regions.
– Despite the anti-gun environment they foster and support, many will be armed.
– Many have off-road capable vehicles (The up-side is that 95% of those have never actually taken their vehicles off-road.)
– Many have boats
– Many have quads or dirt bikes
– Many have RVs
– You won’t need to worry about them during a Cascadia event or a Nuclear strike, because they won’t be able to get to you in the former case — and most will be vaporized in the latter.
· All other scenarios: Plan for and expect The Golden Horde.
– One more happy thought: Here on the Olympic Peninsula we see just as many Oregon plates on the weekend as we do from Washington, so expect some of the Portland Horde if you settle on the Peninsula or in southwestern Washington.
– And yet another: Many rural Washington counties contain prisons . . . What’s going to happen when the lights go out and/or the guards don’t get paid?

– Terrorism
o Due to the high population and strategic location of the Puget Sound Metroplex it is a high-value/high-visibility target.
– Nuclear First-strike Target List
o Primary
– Ft. Lewis & McChord AFB (Tacoma/S Pierce County)
– Bremerton Naval Ship Yard
– Bangor Submarine Warfare Center and Base
– Whidbey NAS
– Everrett Naval Station (Everett/Marysville)
– Fairchild AFB (Spokane)
– Hanford Nuclear Energy Complex

o Secondary
– Seattle
· Boeing
· Other heavy manufacturing & high tech
· Port
· Ship yards
· Transportation & communication center
– Tacoma
· Port
· Shipyards
· Other heavy manufacturing & high tech
· Transportation & communication center
– Everett
· Boeing
· Other heavy manufacturing & high tech
· Port
– Bellingham
· Port
– Portland, Oregon
· Port
· Transportation & communication center
– East Side Corridor
· High-tech & biotechnology
· Communications center
· Transportation corridor
– Cherry Point (Bellingham, Whatcom County)
· Petroleum Refinery complex
– Padilla Bay (Anacortes, Skagit County)
· Petroleum Refinery complex

o Tertiary
– Kelso/Longview
· Port
· Rail hub
– Aberdeen/Hoquiam
· Port
– Olympia
· Seat of Government
· Minor port
– Anacortes
· Minor port
– Moses Lake
· Long runway (Fighter & Bomber capable)
– SEA-TAC (Both the City & Airport)
· Long runway (Fighter & Bomber capable)
– Tri-cities (Richland, Pasco, Kennewick)
· Brain drain Battelle, etc. (Hanford staff/researchers)
If the nukes ever fly, the Western half of this state is going to look like we had missile silos all over the place. Why? Transportation, military, high-tech & communications.

– Pandemic
o Both SEA-TAC {seattle -Tacoma airport] and to a lesser extent, PDX (Portland International) are international hubs — and of course, Vancouver BC’s airport is their Canadian counterpart. Flights originate for the Pacific Rim countries, Europe, Mexico and Central and South America.
o Washington sits in the mainstream of the Pacific Flyway for migratory fowl.
o Washington is a major poultry producer

Conclusion

So, are you wondering why I haven’t run screaming for the hills of Idaho yet? Like I said in my intro: I love this state. It has its problems — probably more than its fair share, for that matter. But, it is beautiful. One acre of good Western Washington bottom land will support a cow and her calf well — two will support a horse at a high level of feed. It will also grow just about anything, and you are blessed with a long growing season. Rain can be a bit problematic at harvest times — but my ancestors managed to muddle through somehow. There are a lot of nice folk, too . . . Just wish they’d let me tell ’em how to vote — and then actually do it!
Of course, I could just be living in the state of De Nile. – Countrytek

Letter Re: Centerfire Antennas December Sale Just for SurvivalBlog Readers

Hi Jim,
I’m very impressed with the response to the ad I placed on your blog site [for Centerfire Antenna].
The SurvivalBlog customers have been some of the most polite folks we’ve ever dealt with. Looking through my web traffic statistics, most of those that have been referred through your blog have bookmarked our site.

I’m giving SurvivalBlog readers a $5 per antenna discount during the month of December. They can use the PayPal buttons and $5 will be refunded to their PayPal account when their order is processed. Or they can choose to have the refund donated to SurvivalBlog. They need to send an e-mail or note with their payment stating that they saw the sale on SurvivalBlog. If mailing payment [via USPS], they can just deduct $5 per antenna.

Also, I just read the letter from DC in Manhattan. It’s great to see a Manhattanite waking up and getting prepared! I’m praying that he eventually gets his young family out of Manhattan. A quick Google check shows a population of over 1.5 million on that island. Not good odds when/if New York is put through a state of emergency longer than a few days. Thanks again, – Ben Kanoff, Centerfire Antenna

Odds ‘n Sods:

“The Other Jim R.” sent us this: Report: World food prices to rise

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Morgan Stanley’s warning: Credit crunch alert over UK economy. (A hat tip to RBS for sending us that link.)

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From The Financial Times: Car makers warn of tough times in US

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Paulson says mortgage plan to be ready this week. My comment: Freezing adjustable rate mortgages to their “teaser” rate levels will only make the housing crash last longer. Delaying the natural market readjustment will only make matters worse.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Again the word of the LORD came unto me, saying,
Son of man, speak to the children of thy people, and say unto them, When I bring the sword upon a land, if the people of the land take a man of their coasts, and set him for their watchman:
If when he seeth the sword come upon the land, he blow the trumpet, and warn the people;
Then whosoever heareth the sound of the trumpet, and taketh not warning; if the sword come, and take him away, his blood shall be upon his own head.
He heard the sound of the trumpet, and took not warning; his blood shall be upon him. But he that taketh warning shall deliver his soul.
But if the watchman see the sword come, and blow not the trumpet, and the people be not warned; if the sword come, and take any person from among them, he is taken away in his iniquity; but his blood will I require at the watchman’s hand.
So thou, O son of man, I have set thee a watchman unto the house of Israel; therefore thou shalt hear the word at my mouth, and warn them from me.”- Ezekiel 33:1-7 (KJV)

Note from JWR:

Special thanks to “Jon Boy” from Atlanta, who said that he is sending us a four-year 10 Cent Challenge subscription payment ($36.50 x 4) in the form of $2 rolls of nickels. (73 rolls!) He certainly got his money’s worth by sending them in a $8.95 US Postal Service Flat Rate Box. (If the rolls had been sent at the normal “postage calculated by weight” Priority Mail rate, it probably would have cost more than $40 in postage!) For anyone thinking about doing likewise, be sure to do as Jon Boy did, and use plenty of padding and a second cardboard box inside the Flat Rate box, for reinforcement.) Once again, my sincere thanks!

Letter Re: New Bump-Resistant Door Locks from Kwikset

Mr. Rawles,
Kwikset lock company makes a “bump-pick” resistant lock [called the SmartKey]. The new locks appear to have a bar that attaches to each of the pins that interact with the key, so if one pin moves then they all have to move. Therefore all the pins have to be in the correct place at the exact same time and there is no “slop” that allows the pins to be “bumped” into place. If you get a chance next time you are around a Home Depot store they with have a display model for these new locks as they can be re-keyed by the end user without taking the lock mechanism apart.

As a contractor I have found that Kwikset brand locks not of the highest quality, but I bet that Schlage will be making a similar lock soon. This might be something to look into. – Brian S.

Letter Re: Using .22 Rimfire Conversions for Low Cost Pistol Practice

Jim:

I have just finished firing 500 rounds through an Advantage Arms .22 conversion for my Glock 17 and Glock 22 While not as accurate as my .22 Ruger pistol, it allows me to practice my shooting skills using the same holster and magazine carriers at fraction of what 9mm and .40 cost. More importantly, by using a conversion rather than a different pistol such as the Ruger, I am developing the same muscle memory, skills, and techniques I will use when shooting my service pistol. I chose the Advantage Arms over the Ciener conversion because the slide locks open when the magazine is empty, allowing me to practice my reloading skills. The conversion is well made except for the fragile factory Glock adjustable sights and only comes with one 10 round magazine. They also make conversions for the 1911 style pistols. – Bill N.

Letter Re: Thanks for SurvivalBlog!

Dear Mr. Rawles:
I am a newly-minted reader and fan of SurvivalBlog. I stumbled upon [SurvivalBlog] by doing a web search on what turned out to be one of your “Quote of the Days” from [the late] Jeff Cooper. All that I can say is that I am mega-overwhelmed at what you and the readers have put on-line. I started out by going back through your current threads, and that seemed like a lot. But then I started clicking on the monthly archive links [in the right hand column] and then I started doing searched on particular topics. Wow! I am blown away. There is so much there. It is like a comprehensive encyclopedia on preparations for survival. Along with my research at other web sites about the present-day political and economic slide, now everything is starting to click. It all makes sense. We are living in a very fragile world and it would be insane not to prepare. I am starting to build my “list of lists.” (Water is at the very top of my list. I’ll be soon ordering a Big Berkey filter–no doubt it’ll be from one of your advertisers.)

I have visited a lot of preparedness and survival sites. They all seem to either be amateurish or have big axes to grind. But yours is a breath of fresh air: No whacko rants, no diatribes, no flame wars, no “I think it could work this way” conjecture (that clown Dakin at the Bison Blog drives me crazy with his un-tested “this might work” ideas), no foul-mouth childishness, no political bickering, no racism, no anti-Semitism, none of that!

I also just read your “Pulling Through” movie script. They have got to make that into a movie! I just wish I knew where the Rawles Ranch was. I’d like to be your next door neighbor! I’m sure lots of other people would too, so I guess its a good thing that you keep your “Bat Cave” [location] a secret.

I heard about your site just before I started a week of vacation for Thanksgiving. Good timing! Otherwise I would have had to call in sick! I spent 10+ hours a day digging through the archives and taking notes. I have so much to do to get ready!

So again, thank you for putting this huge resource on the net for free! I’m heading out to the post office tomorrow to get a money order for a two year 10 Cent Challenge [subscription]. That’s the least that I can do. (I’m doubtful that anyone that reads SurvivalBlog more than once a week could live with their guilty conscience for not doing the same.) I’m also going to order a copy of your prepper’s course and your books.

God Bless You! – Aaron, “Somewhere East of the Rockies”

Odds ‘n Sods:

I found this piece from Peter Schiff over at Gold-Eagle: The End Of Consumer Credit As We Know It
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It appears very likely that the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors will cut interest rates again at their upcoming meeting (Tuesday, December 11th). If it is a 50 basis point cut (or more), it could kick off another huge round of Dollar-dumping worldwide, and we might see the USD Index drop down into the 60s. Speaking of the Dollar’s continuing fall, RBS sent us this from The Economist: Losing faith in the greenback

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RBS also sent us a link to a recall from Gerber–not the baby food company, the knife company. The recall is for their Made-in-China “Exchange a Blade (EAB) models.

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Kudos to Mike F. for finding us some data from Brigham Young University that revises the shelf life estimates for many storage food for as long as 30 years: New Findings for Longer-Term Food Storage. Keep in mind that “life sustaining” is not synonymous with full nutritive value. So be sure supplement your food storage program with some double-encapsulated multivitamins and a plenty of sprouting seeds. (Fresh sprouts are an ideal source of essential vitamins.)

Note from JWR:

Today is the last day to take advantage of the 33% off sale price for the “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course with accompanying audio CD. The course is only occasionally sale priced, so don’t miss out. Place your order online before midnight, or if sending a check or PMO be sure to get your order postmarked with today’s date.

Letter Re: Preparedness for Less Than a Worst Case, From an Eastern Urbanite’s Perspective

Hello Jim,
I am very new reader of your blog and am just now starting to go through the archives. Based on what I’ve read so far, I commend you on putting together a useful, fact-intensive blog on “survivalism” (whatever that means), that isn’t geared towards loony, off-the-reservation, tinfoil hat-type readers, who believe that 9/11 was a plot masterminded by Halliburton.

That said, one problem I suspect I will have with your blog is that you consistently seem to be preparing for an extreme, and more-or-less permanent, breakdown of society—or TEOTWAWKI, if you will. In one of your blog posts, you noted that the problem with preparing for TEOTWAWKI, is that “between now and then, you have your life to live.” This statement is particularly true for those of us who don’t live out West, don’t live in rural environments (let alone, gasp, urban east coast cities), have young children, drive a minivan, and enjoy otherwise the soft, latte-sipping lifestyles of Yuppiedom in the second Golden Age of American wealth.

My family and I fall into that category to a great deal. Don’t get me wrong: I e-ticketed most of my courses at Gunsite, so I’m no head-in-the sand sheeple. And I’m a pretty capable empty hand fighter. But I also grew up in the suburbs and didn’t exactly spend my youth learning to trap, fish, hunt, or plant seeds. I am married to a lovely wife who has no interest in learning to run a carbine, and we have a young daughter who prevents us from grabbing bug-out rucks and heading off to the bush for two weeks. In any event, if we ever managed to actually get from our 30th floor apartment in Manhattan to the bush, I’m not sure we’d know what to do.

The point I’m making is that there are a lot of people like us—people who live in cities, who don’t feel in the least bit at home in the outdoors, who aren’t going to learn about land nav or plotting azimuths, who aren’t going to buy a bug-out retreat in the country that is going to lie empty 52 weeks a year, and who are basically screwed if TEOTWAWKI actually and truly arrives.

Barring TEOTWAWKI, it seems to me that we are infinitely more likely to face moderately scary scenarios, like Hurricane Katrina and necessary urban evacuation, some urban 1970s style civil disturbance but nothing like Mogadishu, high-intensity individual criminal acts, a low-order terrorist event nearby and the accompanying panic, or some other situation shy of the worst case scenario.

We urbanites can prepare for those events, while not being entirely distracted from our workaday “ordinary” lives, or dedicating ourselves to trying to get off-the-grid. I certainly have made some attempts to prepare. For example, I have no doubt that we’re in the 99th percentile of Manhattan preparedness by virtue of the fact that we own:

– a well maintained and fueled Honda CRV with GPS, local region street maps, XM radio (for news), an empty 5 gallon gas can, and various vehicle repair tools
– a (legally permitted) pistol and shotgun, and enough ammunition for a firefight and reload under civilian ROEs
– $4,000 in cash
– a week of MREs and water, full rations
– a PVS-14 [night vision] monocular
– soft body armor
– basic camping equipment
– various tools like a good knife, a pry bar, Surefire lights, chemlights, paracord, etc.
– a fully stocked medical kit, 30 days of scrip drugs, and a copy of “Medicine for the Outdoors”
– personal hygiene gear
– a roll of 1mm poly sheeting and a ton of 100 mph tape
– full face respirators and disposable N100 masks
– GMRS radios, shortwave radio, a hand crank radio
– a ton of batteries
– a USB key and a 500 GB backup drive with all our important information
– 1 box of critical paper documents
– clothing suitable for the seasons
– baby stuff

Most of this gear is boxed, labeled, and stored in a single closet that we’ve dedicated to SHTF equipment. The other stuff (car, guns, cash, key documents, etc.) could be policed up in 10 minutes, and is written down on a checklist. If we had to, I reckon we could shelter in place for a week, or we could bug out in an hour (assuming, of course, Manhattan was not totally gridlocked).

I’d be very interested in your thoughts about what urbanites should be doing to prepare for bad times, given the restrictions of space, limited knowledge of/interest in outdoorsman skills, “Yuppie” lifestyle constraints, etc. Thanks. – D.C.

JWR Replies: For someone that lives on Manhattan Island, you are definitely quite well-prepared!

Some preparedness upgrades that I’d recommend for you:

1.) Pre-positioning some supplies stored with friends or relatives, or perhaps in a commercial storage space, at least 150 miles out of the city, on your intended “Get Out of Dodge” route. (For that dreaded “worst case.”)

2.) Adding a rifle to your firearms battery. With New York City’s semi-auto and magazine restrictions, you might consider a .308 Bolt action with either a small detachable magazine, or perhaps a non-detachable magazine. A Steyr Scout would be a good choice. Some semi-auto rifles that might be approved include top-loading M1 Garands and FN49s. (No doubt easier if you are a member of a CMP-associated shooting club.) If you can’t get permit approval for any modern rifles, then there is a handy exemption for long guns “manufactured prior to 1894 and replicas which are not designed to fire fixed ammunition, or for which fixed ammunition is not commercially available.” You might consider a pre-1894 production Winchester Model 1876 or 1886 in an obsolete caliber such as .40-60 or .45-90. (See my FAQ on pre-1899 cartridge guns for details. Be sure to select rifles with excellent bores and nice mechanical condition.

3.) A small photovoltaic panel for recharging your flashlights, radios, and night vision gear batteries.(Along with a 300+ Amp Hour 12 VDC “Jump Pack” (such as JCWhitney.com‘s item # ZX265545) and 12 VDC “DC to DC” battery charging trays and the various requisite cords.)

4.) A supply of antibiotics.

5.) Consult your local fire code, and store the maximum legally-allowable quantity of extra gasoline, assuming you have a safe place to store it. (I realize that most Manhattanites have their cars stored commercially with no additional storage space, and it can be a 20 minute car-juggling exercise just to get your hands on your car, depending on how “deep” you are parked.) If extra gas will be stored in your vehicle, then be sure to get one or more Explosafe brand fuel cans, and strap them down securely so that they will maintain their integrity in the even of a vehicle collision. You might consider upgrading to a mid-size 4WD SUV (such as an E85-compatible Ford Explorer) and have it fitted with an auxiliary roof rack where you can carry extra gas cans. (Again, I realize that most Manhattan parking garages have height limitations, but do your best.)