Letter Re: Of Bulls and Bears–Some History and a Glimpse at the Future

Dear Mr. Rawles,
Thanks for the great blog, and your “Patriots” novel. Reading your site has become a daily routine for me.
One thing that I am finding amusing in today’s investment market is this mythical line in the sand of when we are officially in a Bear market. At present the market seems to be fighting to stay just above this line and almost daily some market pundit states how one average or another has “officially’ entered an intraday Bear Market.
Few people know, especially those in the investment market, the origins of the terms Bulls and Bears.

In my neck of the woods, the Gold Country of the Sierra Nevada mountain range, Bulls and Bears have been battling it out since the early days of the Gold Rush. This was sport for many of the local towns to bring to the town square a large bear captured in the wild and put the bear to do battle with a local prize bull. The men of the town would gather and wager on which of the two behemoths would win out in a fight to the death.

One of two scenarios would play out. In the first scenario (a Bull Market) the bull would gore the bear in the abdomen slashing the bear open in a spectacular display of blood and guts. The bear would die fairly quickly and the townsmen would head off to the bars to tell of their afternoon’s entertainment. In the other scenario, (the Bear Market) the bear would gain position inside of the bull’s horns placing the bull in the proverbial ‘bear hug’. Then things would get ugly! The bear would then bite off the nose of the bull. At this point all the bear has to do is hang on and let the bull bleed out – and that is just what the bear would do. This takes hours of the bull bellowing in pain, blood pouring from the bull’s face all the while. Once the bear had achieved the inside position and the nose was bitten off, it was effectively over, but there were still the hours of bellowing and blood until the bull finally died.

The reason for my writing you with this bit of history is because it is obvious that in the investment arena the bear has gained the inside position, the nose of the bull has been bitten off, and we are watching the bull bleed out (numerous large cap companies reporting colossal, multi-billion dollar quarterly losses – now in a row; the housing market crash; the dollar weakening; and the entire banking industry teetering on complete insolvency to name a few. The efforts of the Fed to gauze the wound will not prevent the inevitable outcome). What amazes me is watching the pundits and talking heads make ridiculous statements about how we are “not actually in a bear market” because we float just above a subjective line in the sand; or my recent favorite, some reporter whining about “why can’t we just get to the bottom of the bear market already and start over”. The history of Bulls and Bears shows, at least in symbolic reference, why a bear market is not a quick, flashy downside where we ‘just get there and start over’. This is a long, slow process and no matter how hard the bull tries to pull away, he is not getting away from the inevitable outcome.

Jim, you, through your blog site, you offer us the opportunity to be prepared for what may come. Those who sit ringside believing that the bull will somehow win out in this scenario are fooling themselves and those around them. Keep up the great work! – Dennis

JWR Replies: As reader Kevin A. recently mentioned to me, the market terms are most often attributed as follows: Bulls gore head first and then raise their heads and thus their horns upwards, while bears fight by striking with their paws in a downward motion. But regardless of the specific origin of the terms, don’t forget the old Wall Street saying: “Nobody beats the bear.”



Letter Re: The Novel The Road is Now in Movie Production

Mr. Rawles,
As you seem to enjoy a bit of fiction with your survival preparedness I thought you would be interested to know that Cormac McCarthy’s best-selling and Pulitzer Prize-winning novel, “The Road”, is being made into a Hollywood movie. While certainly not the world’s greatest survival fiction it isn’t a bad morality play of the mindset required to survive a pervasive society ending disaster.
The movie is set to release in November by John Hillcoat and star Viggo Mortenson, Robert Duvall and Charlize Theron, Guy Pearce and 12-year-old Kodi Smit McPhee.
It could be good but the sheeple will no more go see this than they will the survival movie, “Blindness”. – Neal





Letter Re: Preparedness Versus Reliance on God’s Providence and Protection

Jim,
I’ve struggled with the paradigm of preparing versus having faith in God to provide for our needs and protection. There are many Biblical references/analogies regarding both. Would you be willing to share your thoughts? Sincerely, – Short-ckt

JWR Replies: For some relevant Bible passages, please see the latest additions to my Prayer page. In particular, see the sections under these headings:

Clarification on Christianity and Physical Preparedness
Food Storage
Self Defense
Charity

May God Bless You and Yours!



Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader Cheryl N. sent us this article that ran in Australia’s The Age, back in June: Talk of financial system breakdown moves from the fringe to the mainstream

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Both Dean and KAF mentioned an EMP article, in The Wall Street Journal.

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Cheryl N. also flagged this: 2007 Mortgages Going Bad at Faster Pace. “Mortgages issued in the first part of 2007 are going bad at a pace that far outstrips the 2006 vintage, suggesting that the blow to the financial system from U.S. housing woes will be deeper than many people earlier estimated.” Meanwhile, we read: California Housing Years Away From Bottom

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Grut in Colorado told us about a You Tube clip produced by some LDS women, teaching food storage techniques.

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Reader Scot F. mentioned that the State of Ohio is touting pandemic flu preparedness, in a new television public service advertisement.







Letter Re: Some Practical Experience with WVO Conversions for Diesels

JWR,
Some waste vegetable oil (WVO) information for you: My 2001 Excursion 4WD runs on WVO, and I’m presently in the process of converting my recently acquired 1996 Ford F250. For my first conversion, the Excursion, I bought a conversion kit from a company and I recommend that all first timers on straight vegetable oil (SVO) start with a kit from a reputable company. I’m building my second conversion kit on my own and I expect it to cost around $800 for all the conversion parts except for the second tank for the WVO. (I picked up a L-shaped 105 gallon transfer tank cheap off Craigslist a year ago since I knew I’d be getting a diesel pickup and converting it sometime in the future). Conversion kits usually cost more but they use expensive filters only available by mail order from boat supply houses ($33-$40 each filter). Mine is cheaper since I run filter bases and filters from FleetFilter.com ($5-$7 each filter for an equal or finer micron rating). Fleetfilter is a NAPA auto parts store in Texas that only sells filters online (I’m not affiliated with them I’m only a satisfied repeat customer). The main advantage is this: If I ever need to replenish my spare filters while on a trip, I can go to the local NAPA store and if they don’t have it in stock they will have it in the morning. (A side note: I used to call them “NOPA”, as in; Question: “Do you have this part in stock? Reply: “Nope uh, I’ll have it in the morning.” Joking aside, they really can get the right parts the first time.)

The savings of running on WVO will completely pay for the conversion in about four and a half months and completely pay for the entire truck, and the other stuff I bought for it, in about 2.3 years (Payback was calculated on $4.00 per gallon diesel. Payback is faster when diesel is higher. I last filled up at $4.22 per gallon). I picked up the truck cheap since second gear was blown out, also I bought a topper and a rolled over truck (for cheaper than a junkyard transmission) and swapped the transmissions out so I can have complete a spare drive train as soon as I rebuild the bad trans. After I sell my old gasoline-powered truck I’ll have very little money in the “new” one, and I already have enough filtered and de-watered WVO to cover the cost of the conversion and then some. If I lose my sources of WVO (local restaurants give it to me for free) then I can use up my WVO or probably just run on diesel and keep what I have in long term storage to be used during in emergency to G.O.O.D. After that I could run Waste Motor Oil or Automatic Transmission Fluid (ATF) in the same second tank that the WVO ran in. Between the two tanks (the 44 gal. stock tank is for veggie and the new tank mounted on the inside of the frame is 24 gallon) in the Excursion I can go about 1100-to-1200 miles to empty, and in the F250 I estimate a range of about 2,500-2,700 miles to empty (two stock diesel tanks 15 and 19 gal. and the 105 gallon transfer tank).

Preparation for long term storage of WVO – People talk about a limited shelf life of vegetable oils while this is true for vegetable oil to be used for cooking, I don’t think this applies when working with WVO for fuel. I believe they go bad due to microbes, similar to the microbes present in diesel fuel. Microbes need three things to live, water, food and air. To kill the microbes, I de-water all the oil, then filter it again before I pump it into 55 gallon drums or 275 gallon totes, as I pump it in I add microbiocide (available from boating supply houses) to kill the microbes and I fill the containers to the brim to reduce the amount of air present. Due to the microbiocide, the vegetable oil in the container can never be fit for human consumption, but I’ve never reused any of the waste vegetable oil I get from the restaurants anyway, since I don’t know what chemicals they clean their fryers with and would never consider cooking with used oil (from a source outside my families direct supervision) as an option – not even in a pinch. So even after all this if the WVO “goes rancid”, it still doesn’t matter since we use it for fuel, not cooking. Note: The dead microbes will leave a very thin layer of sludge at the bottom of the LTS containers when allowed to settle for several weeks, no matter how finely the oil is filtered.

BTW, thank you for all your assistance and efforts. We bought the family pack pallet of 150 of #10 cans from SafecastleRoyal last year, we would not have bought it or heard about it, if you hadn’t pointed it out and told us why now is better than later. They were very courteous, helpful and allowed us to make a few substitutions. We are glad we joined the Safecastle Royal program and we did tell them we found them via SurvivalBlog. We have commented several times how grateful we are to have some food for ourselves and for charity. God is Good. We also bought a Listeroid [engine generator] several months ago as we saw the writing on the wall concerning Bernanke’s decimation of the dollar, and are grateful we slipped in under the wire on that too. You have taught us a lot and my wife is now very eagerly exploring the possibilities of getting some goats. I hope to be a 10 Cent Challenge supporter soon.

Thanks and God Bless, – Rollinns (A loyal reader who has a long way to go and has read only partially through the archives and lives somewhere in the middle of the country within a few hours of I-70.)



Letter Re: Advice on Finding a Retreat

Mr. Rawles
Regarding GvO’s letter that was posted on Thursday: I think that “finding a retreat” is not as important as finding people to work with, and while time may be getting short, I still believe the answer is primarily about people, not places.

GvO obviously has skills that would be useful even before the Schumeresque season arrives. So, I can tell you what worked for us.
We found an online group that was devoted to Homesteading, after a year or so when the group decided to have a Meet-N-Greet, we went, and met the founders, and some of the other members. This went on for a few years, and soon we found ourselves being invited to join in other activities. In the end we have become part of a small highly committed yet not strictly organized Meet-N-Greet. I believe that it will be a stable, and functional group due to the fact that we have all spent quite a bit of time getting to really know each other, what we have to offer, and what we need help with.
I found out later that the whole reason the original founder set up the online community, was to find Meet-N-Greet members, so if you can’t find a group like this then as James said, start one. I would recommend that it not be about survival or preparedness, directly, rather some other activity like homesteading, or camping, or whatever else you have an interest in that can naturally extend into a more secure future.

The key is to get involved in group activities, and pull your your share of the weight without getting in the way. Let your character show through your actions, and I believe that you will find what you are looking for–or more precisely it will find you. Thanks James, and Good Luck to GvO. Regards, – Anon.

JWR Replies: As I mentioned in my Finding Like-Minded People in Your Area static web page, networking is the best method to find or form a retreat group. Online discussion forums such as The Mental Militia “Gulching” is one good national venue. But of course all of the usual OPSEC provisos apply. Go slowly and cautiously. Above all, proceed with prayer.



Odds ‘n Sods:

Tom from Atlanta wrote to ask me about the recent drop in oil and precious metals, and the simultaneous rally in the US Dollar. He asked: “Does this mean the credit crisis is over, and that commodities will tank?” My answer: Not even close. Just take a look at the US Dollar Index chart. Print out that chart, slap a ruler on it, and draw a trend line. Now ask yourself: At the macro level, is there anything that has changed that will make the USD substantially stronger in the next few years? NO! So we can conclude that the recent spike in the USDX is simply a momentary pause for the down escalator. Just look at these short term counter-cyclical blips as a good buying opportunity to increase your precious metals holdings. Buy on the dips. As I’ve written before, 72 is the magic number to watch for on the USDX chart.

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Ben H. found this: Bacteria were the real killers in 1918 flu pandemic.

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Reader C.Z. e-mailed me to ask about a recommended supplier for low self discharge (LSD) nickel metal hydride (NiMH) batteries. I recommend All-Battery.com.

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The WRSA has another “Grid-Down Medical Course” scheduled to start this coming Monday. It is not too late to sign up. This one will be in Everett, Washington, September 12th to 14th. Their training is inexpensive, and highly recommended. This is also a great way to bump into fellow SurvivalBlog readers. (Wear your SurvivalBlog hat or t-shirt!)

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Currie sent a snippet from an article by Jim Quinn posted at LewRockwell.com: Is the U.S. Banking System Safe? Here is a key quote: “There are 8,500 banks in the U.S. Based on an independent analysis by Chris Whalen from Institutional Risk Analytics, they have identified 8% of all banks, or around 700 banks as troubled. This is quite a divergence from the FDIC estimate. Should you believe a governmental agency that wants the public to remain in the dark to avoid bank runs, or an independent analysis based upon balance sheet analysis? The implications of 700 institutions failing are huge. There is roughly $6.84 trillion in bank deposits. It is almost beyond belief that $2.6 trillion of these deposits are uninsured. There is only $274 billion of the $6.84 trillion as cash on hand at banks. This means that $6.5 trillion has been loaned to consumers, businesses, developers, etc. The FDIC has $53 billion to cover $6.84 trillion of deposits. Does that give you a warm feeling?” JWR’s comment: The table in the article that is titled: “Level 3 Assets as a % of Capital” says it all. There’s a bad moon rising.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"You have to choose [as a voter] between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the Government. And, with due respect for these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the Capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold." – George Bernard Shaw



Note from JWR:

I was saddened to hear that Skip Ellsworth recently passed away, at his home in the Philippines. He was the founder of the Log Builder’s Association. Skip was an amazing craftsman, teacher, and patriot. He will be missed!



Letter Re: Finding a Family Oriented Survival Retreat

We are a devoted Christian family located in N.E. Oklahoma who are looking to encourage, help, and possibly connect with other families that are like minded. My wife and I have been preparing since we have been together (1999). We now have three young children, and are very family oriented. We homeschool and even home church. Despite the fact that some ‘hard core’ survivalists cringe at the thought of caring for little ones, we love children and consider them a blessing, and we believe that it is an honorable duty to be able to provide for and protect them. Besides ourselves, we also have two other family members who are part of our core group. For the last year we have invested all of our time, energy, and extra funds into preparing for what is coming. We prayerfully approach all of our decisions, and realize that ‘unless the Lord builds the house’ all of our efforts are vain. We do not believe we have all the answers as to what is coming and how to best deal with it, but we feel confident in stating that if we seek the Lord with all our hearts that he will direct our path. We do believe that the evidence shows that what we see happening to our nation is part of God’s plan to bring judgment upon this wicked backslidden people. As I’ve heard it said before ‘if God doesn’t judge this nation, than he will have to apologize to Sodom and Gomorrah’.

Logistically, we are in good shape in most areas. The Lord has blessed us to be able to accumulate a large food supply (2-3 years), gardening supplies, food processing and preserving equipment and supplies, lots of various outdoor gear, water purifiers of all sorts, bug-out vehicles, medical supplies, rechargeable batteries, and also guns and ammo. Areas we are working on presently are communications, power independence, more medical knowledge and gear, and other various training to help ‘hone’ all of our skills. I agree with JWR that gadgets and gear are useless without the skills to use them.

My biggest area of concern right now is location. We have a fairly secluded spot with acreage, but there are three major issues we have discovered:

1) We still have a mortgage on the place that cannot be quickly paid-off (too much, too little time). Which, when the economic crash comes, would put us at the mercy of the government controlled bank (due to bail-outs). This would cause us to have to relocate at a time of tremendous risk to our family. (This is not wise) We do have a ‘plan B’, that will be discussed on point 3.

2) Mentality of the populous: After living here for five years, we have come to the conclusion that most people in this area, sadly, even many who claim the name of Christ, are either lazy and dependent upon government programs to sustain them, or have no apparent discernment and therefore see no need to prepare. That means that they will likely succumb to the pressure and do the bidding of the powers that be, and/or they will come knocking demanding another ‘free ride’ from those of us that are prepared. (A great example of this can be found in Matthew 25, The Parable of the Ten Virgins) . Either way that spells trouble and possibly an armed confrontation, which we are ready and willing to withstand, but we realize that at this point we are under-manned. This is not a good situation for our Family Orientated Survival Retreat. Our philosophy is to avoid all potential armed confrontations if possible, but to be willing and ready to defend when necessary.

3) Physical Location & Plan B: This particular area of Oklahoma, though it is very rural and has a longer growing season, is very difficult to farm. Because we are in the foothills of the Ozarks, the soil is extremely rocky and very difficult to cultivate. We had to bring in top soil to be able to start our own garden. It also gets extremely hot in the summer months, so irrigation would be critical to keep crops from withering up & dying. That requires a whole separate set of logistics that would need to be sustainable during a crisis period. If we had to leave the homestead under adverse conditions, there’s Plan B.

Plan B is to retreat into the plentiful woods surrounding my area, but here is what I have discovered. There is a tremendous amount of poisonous snakes and spiders inhabiting the terrain, and even worse, there is also an innumerable amount of ticks and chiggers out there to torment even the casual traveler or hiker. Even though statistically the ticks in this area predominately do not carry Lyme disease, there are other diseases that can be transmitted by these tormenting Arthropods. My family and I have suffered many other physical reactions from the bites of ticks and chiggers. You can scarcely walk out into the grassy area of the yard during the warmer months and not get infested by ticks, chiggers, or both. We even looked at some retreat property in the mountainous terrain of N.W. Arkansas and found the very same problems with these nasty critters. Even with good repellents you can still get attacked, and realistically, if you are on the run how much repellent can you carry with you along with the rest of your critical supplies? The thought of having to hide a family with little ones in the deep woods of this area for any extended period of time worries me. When we first moved here I thought this area would suit our needs well, and for our present needs it’s worked out okay, but simply put, this is not what would be considered an ideal area for survival.

With all that said, I stated above that our main concern is location. We believe that it is expedient for us to look for another location for our group. Here is a breakdown of important items that must be part of finding the ideal location.

A) Safety

Because we are family orientated and have small children, we must try to establish the safest location possible, preferably making that location your primary residence. Also, your location must be set up to be able to best provide for the needs of families, which includes children of all ages. Number one priority is safety, that means being safely away from the hordes, safe from looters, and safe from tyrants and their minions. Think about what it was like when you and your spouse were first married, and how easily the two of you could just ‘up and go’ when you wanted to, but now that you have children all of that has changed, and, depending on the number of children you have, it can be a major project just ‘packing up’ for church! Now imagine what it would be like if your retreat was about to be, or was being overrun by a group of attackers. How fast could you and your family, with all of their necessary gear, move to safety? Would you even be able too? That is why the best way to protect your little ones is to gain an ‘advantage’ by choosing the optimal retreat location now while you still can. This may mean sacrifice and teaming up with others, but what is the alternative? This deserves careful consideration on the part of all concerned parents and retreat members. Even if all cannot be permanent residents, there still needs to be a concerted effort by several families to establish the best scenario possible. Therefore the Family Oriented Survival Retreat must be remote enough to be avoided by most, but reasonably accessible to the members who are not full time residents. As most realize, moving a family to a safe location during times of crisis can be very difficult and dangerous. There are so many potential hazards that can occur during a ‘bug-out’ situation that time and space cannot allow for them to be written here. Not to say it’s impossible, but it is a notable risk. Therefore all families that cannot be permanent residents should strive to be located as close as possible to the retreat location.

B) Team Work

The Family Oriented Survival Retreat location must also be properly manned and defendable. This means that one family by itself is not enough, no matter how remote you get. We all need help, and we should all want to help others. This is how all truly great institutions have worked, this is how Christianity works, and this is how a Family Oriented Survival Retreat must work. This is probably the biggest stumbling block of all, because Americans are generally selfish, we only think about ourselves and that’s the way we plan. We generally don’t try to work with other families to create a better situation for all. I realize that we must be discerning about others, and character does matter, but if you haven’t found the people you are looking for in your immediate area than maybe it would be advantageous to look for others outside your area. The bottom line is that there are others out there who would be great to work with and have the right mind set, but maybe like yourselves, don’t quite have the financial means to buy a big remote property, and even if they did, they wouldn’t have the man power to make it work. That’s why we need to connect with others somehow, maybe even set-up a forum for people to be able to discuss these matters and potentially find other like minded families too work with.

C) Relocation

This leads me to my last point, and that is location, or maybe better stated, re-location. After studying several areas and reading the articles written by Mr. Rawles and others, it seems that the Northwestern region of the U.S. may be the most plausible place to look. There are several important factors to consider and for sake of space I would just recommend checking out this comprehensive write-up [by JWR] that goes into greater detail on the subject. I have spent time talking to a few realtors and others in Northern Idaho and in Northwest Montana, and my impression is the basic mindset in these areas is geared more toward that of the survivalist. There also seems to be a greater sense of community as well. If this is true than it could go a long way in a crisis. But regardless, this may be a good place for a few like minded families to band together and create several Family Oriented Survival Retreats. This would pool resources, skills, and abilities and would increase the chances of surviving the coming years.

I realize that a lot more can be said on this subject, but I challenge those of you who feel moved to look into these things to put it to prayer, and if you would like to share your thoughts or are interested in pursuing a Family Oriented Survival Retreat you can contact me at: quityourselveslikemen@yahoo.com. – David M.



Letter Re: GPS Receivers with a Back Road Mode

Jim,
In answer to the recent inquiry: I can’t speak for other manufacturers, but Garmin’s Mapsource software has a setting for the road types along routes. I took my family on a camping trip a few weeks ago and we were on a single-lane dirt road for several miles between paved roads. We saw a group of wild turkeys cross the road and numerous deer bounding away as we passed.
Since this trip, I found the setting in Mapsource that the software uses to determine road types. Click the “Edit” menu and select “Preferences” and in the resulting dialog, select the “Routing” tab. There is a slider for “Road Selection” adjusting from “Prefer Highways” to “Prefer Minor Roads”.

I personally have the Garmin GPSMap 60CSx and wouldn’t trade it for anything else. I have had the unit just over a year and updated maps once from City Navigator North America 2008 to City Navigator North America NT 2009. NT is a smaller file-size allowing you to hold more maps on a single Micro SD card. I use a 2-gigabyte card and have both sets of City Navigator and Topo 2008 for a good portion of the Eastern Seaboard. Updated maps are imperative as roads are always changing, but Garmin does a good job of software releases and bug fixes. – Reid



Odds ‘n Sods:

John T. spotted this thought-provoking piece by Chris Sullins posted over at Of Two Minds: The Self-Selected Remnant

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David in Israel recommends the Pyromid Folding Grille. David notes: “I got mine at an outdoor gear shop closing sale. I was surprised by the high list price for a grille but that was before I used it. Made of stainless steel the infrared energy from the coals is all aimed upwards toward the food, after many seasons of use the once mirror shiny grille is a dull gold color where it was heated but there is no sign of corrosion. I follow the instruction to use a foil liner every time and this makes cleanup easy, just carefully remove the foil liner with the dying coals add a little water and once the grille is cool fold up and go. Newer grilles also include a super heat grate which is supposed to intensify the heat by holding briquettes sideways so the ash will fall off. Since the grille is only an inch deep and 12 inches wide when folded up in its bag it easily straps to the side of my bicycle rack for trips to the park or farther. I have burned everything form Sterno to charcoal to driftwood when touring and it has always been good to grill burgers, cook a chicken, or boil a pot of water.

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Reader CRW notes: “David Walker, a national hero and former comptroller for the US government, who resigned earlier this year, now heads the Peter G. Peterson Foundation which is devoted to warning the public about the looming bankruptcy of the government. I have just discovered that they have a movie, “I.O.U.S.A.” coming out in theaters in a few weeks. A movie trailer is available on their web site. “I.O.U.S.A“. may be to the US economy what “An Inconvenient Truth” was to the environment.

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Take a look at the new Be A Survivor blog. It is quite interesting.

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Inyokern sent us this ABC News article link: Into the Economic Abyss: How Deep Will It Go?