Letter Re: Influenza Exercise Shows the Potential for Major Infrastructure

Jim,
With all due respect (to Chris in Utah and the folks cited by Computerworld), “If a pandemic strikes the U.S., it will kill about 1.7 million people” is a fantasy, because it is based upon the 1918-1919 flu’s death-rate of 2.5%, and also that the United States’ population of the time was around one-third of the present number.

It was said that, in “normal” times, flu killed some 0.25% of those afflicted. In 1918-1919, that figure skyrocketed to 2.5%. Triple the U.S.’s population (in regard to the earlier 20th Century figure), and the post-WW1’s death-rate goes to slightly over 2 million. But, as I indicated earlier, that’s with the 2.5% rate.

In Indonesia and elsewhere, the death rate [for H5N1] is not even close to 2.5%. It is more like 53% to 60%. I made some further calculations (2.5 x 20, for starters, although that is a rather conservative figure), an came up with the following figure[s], that the death rate, in the U.S. alone (675,000 x 3 x 20), will be more along the lines of 40,500,000 (say a round 40 million, just to keep things tidy.)

Anybody who is of the opinion that a mere 1.7 million–approximately 3 times the 1918-19 rate–will be in their shrouds is living in Fantasyland. That-all is based on percentage that catches the flu, not the entirety of the U.S. population. Regards, – Ben

Letter Re: Advice on a Rust-Resistant Method to Store Spare Magazines

Hello Mr. Rawles,
I just read your recent post on investing in full capacity magazines and was motivated to place several large mag orders. I already had at least 150 rifle mags, so I have quite a few mags around. I recently have been trying to get my preparedness storage organized so that items can be stored for long periods without being damaged. As part of this I have been vacuum sealing mags in my Tilia Food Saver with an oxygen absorber thrown in for good measure. These will then be stored in bins in my clean, dry attic. (I live in the Midwest – extreme hot & cold temperatures). Many of my AK mags are polymer, the steel mags I have given a coat of Break Free Collector before sealing. The AR mags are of course either aluminum or the new Magpul polymer mags.

Do you think this is a good idea, or is there a better way? What is your recommendation for long term mag storage? My indoor climate controlled space is at a premium for food and ammo storage, so I would love to be able to keep these in the garage or attic if possible.

By the way, your book “Patriots” was instrumental in my starting my prepping journey, six years ago. Your Brother in Christ – EWG

JWR Replies: Proper magazine storage depends a lot on your climate. If you live in a humid climate and you want to store your spare magazines in a garage or attic, then you should first heavily oil any steel magazines and store them in sealed ammo cans. Be sure to also include a large packet of silica gel desiccant in each storage can. In the less humid western states, just a light coat of oil will generally suffice. My favorite airtight containers for storing bulky but fairly lightweight items such as magazines are USGI 20mm ammo cans, which are available at most gun shows and surplus stores. They are also fairly inexpensive via mail order, but typically by the time you’ve paid for shipping, your cost will double.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Stressed borrowers use plastic to delay default

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Writing in his most recent quarterly newsletter, economist John Mauldin mentioned: “…at the end of the second quarter, household mortgage debt [in the United States] totaled $10.143 trillion, compared with $4.295 trillion in 1999. Thus, in six and a half years the household sector’s mortgage debt increased by $5.8 trillion, or 136%.”

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Chester sent us a link to a hilarious YouTube video on hedge funds, credit derivatives, SIVs, and government bailouts.

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Thanks to Eric S. for sending this article: NYSE Eliminates Trading Curbs Dating Back to 1987. Now wouldn’t it be ironic if…

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"It is almost as if you were frantically constructing another world while the world that you live in dissolves beneath your feet, and that your survival depends on completing this construction at least one second
before the old habitation collapses" – Tennessee Williams (1914-1983)

Notes from JWR:

A reminder that there are just two days left in the special “six pack sale” for autographed copies of the latest 33 chapter edition of my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse”. The sale price of a box of six books is still just $90, postage paid. (Normally they are $24 per copy, but during this sale you get six autographed copies for $90, mailed in a Priority Mail Flat Rate box, sent to anywhere in the United States, including APO/FPO addresses.) This sale ends on October 31st. This is your chance to buy some extra copies for Christmas presents. Note that because of the recent rush of orders, I am now out of stock. However, I will continue to honor the special $90 six pack sale price, but there will be a delay for re-stocking until mid-November, when the remaining six pack orders will be shipped. All orders will be shipped in the sequence that payments are received. Do not order from me unless you are willing to wait until the third week of November for your six pack of books to arrive! (If you are in a hurry, you can order from Fred’s M14 Stocks. They recently bought 1,000 autographed copies for resale.)

Today we present another article for Round 13 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The writer of the best non-fiction article will win a valuable four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificate. (Worth up to $2,000!) Second prize is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. I will again be sending out a few complimentary copies of my novel “Patriots” as “honorable mention” awards. Round 13 ends on November 30th. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

Building a Scout Rifle on a Budget, by Paul B.

The late Jeff Cooper described a scout rifle as “a general-purpose rifle [that] is a conveniently portable, individually operated firearm, capable of striking a single decisive blow, on a live target of up to 200 kilos in weight, at any distance at which the operator can shoot with the precision necessary to place a shot in a vital area of the target.” Some of the basic requirements are a maximum unloaded weight of 3.5 kg (3 kg optimal), an overall length of 1 meter or less, a Ching sling, a forward mounted scope, a .308Winchester / 7.62mm NATO chamber, and auxiliary iron sights (optional). In my opinion these characteristics lend themselves to a SHTF scenario. The rifle would be light enough to always be carried, yet powerful enough to be used for defense or hunting. Also as a bolt action it would be reliable and accurate. It also would not call as much attention to you as a semi-auto battle rifle.

Nowadays, several manufacturers make scout rifle variants. Some of the most popular are the Steyr Scout, the Savage 10FCM, and the Ruger M77 Frontier rifle. The problem is that these rifles cost in excess of $2000, $675, and $750 respectively. This places them out of the range of many gun buyers. The great news is that there is an alternative. If you have at least some modest gunsmithing skills, then why not build your own?

The first thing to do would be to find a starter rifle. Since you want a cheap rifle, I would suggest trying to buy a used hunting rifle or looking at the surplus market. A good Israeli Mauser (.308) would be a great starting point and there are plenty of aftermarket Mauser parts. If necessary, a 7mm Mauser would also work. Another option is the Enfield Ishapore 2A. This is the option that I chose due to its availability at my local gun shop, its reliable and fast action, its 10 round [detachable] magazine capacity, and its ability to be loaded from 5 round stripper clips. Another bonus for using the Enfield is that a “Shooter’s Special” version is now available from AIM Surplus for $99.95. Since we will be replacing the stock and cutting and re-crowning the barrel, some drawbacks of the ‚ÄúShooter‚Äôs Special‚Äù will not be an issue. Although the procedures below were performed on the Enfield, most could be universally applied.

After you have chosen your rifle, the next step would be to clean it thoroughly and then test fire it. This way you can return it if there is a problem. There is no point investing the time and effort into a faulty rifle.

If you are satisfied with the performance of the rifle, then proceed to the disassembly phase. The Surplus Rifle web site has excellent “walk through” procedures on how to do this. Make note of any damaged parts and order replacements from Gun Parts Corporation (Numrich), or a similar company. I would suggest at least getting another extractor spring, extractor (if available), firing pin, firing pin spring, a new magazine, and a firing pin removal tool. These are not requirements, but having these spare parts would be invaluable if the supply suddenly dried up. The extractor spring is probably the most important since if the rifle was stored with the bolt closed the spring could have lost some of its function causing the extractor not to grip the rim properly resulting in very poor extraction. As far as magazines go, the new manufacture magazine I got from Numrich worked decently, but the new ProMag ones were terrible. Something else to note is that about 80% of the small parts in a Ishapore Enfield 2A are compatible with the Enfield No 1 Mk 3 parts.

After the rifle is disassembled, proceed to remove the barrel mounted rear sight assembly. On my rifle, this assembly was fastened with a screw under the slider bar and a pin on the side through the barrel. It would be a good idea to clean the area around the assembly with acetone (or fingernail polish remover) to remove the enamel paint and gunk. I had to use a torch to heat the assembly enough to knock it loose.

With the sight assembly gone it is time to tackle the barrel. According to Tac Ops,, a .308 20″ barrel will result in complete powder burn, full velocity, and full accuracy, while an 18″ barrel loses slightly in velocity while accuracy remains the same. I decided the 18″ barrel would be worth the trade off. Mark where the cut will be made, secure the barrel in a vise, and proceed carefully with a hacksaw. After the cut is done, stuff a cleaning patch down the barrel (starting from the receiver) to prevent further metal shavings from getting into the barrel and receiver. Use a file to smooth out your cut and get it as close to straight as possible. The better you do here, the easier the next step will be.

To finish the muzzle you will need to crown it. You could take it to a gunsmith, buy the crowning tools from Brownell’s, or use WECSOG skills and a little creativity. I chose to buy the Brownell’s tools and they worked rather well. I had to sand down the .308 pilot a little to get it to fit, but other than that there were no issues. Use plenty of thread cutting oil or similar and go slowly, cleaning the tool often and clearing any metal shavings from the barrel.

Enfields come with a little magazine loop on the trigger guard where a chain used to hold the magazine to the gun. This was from the days when commanders feared their soldiers would misplace their only magazine. I cut this off with a Dremel as it is no longer needed and it looks cleaner without it.

Before you proceed you must refinish the rifle as you see fit. For me, this meant cleaning, sandblasting, degreasing, and finishing with Gun Kote.

After the rifle is refinished, you can attach the scout scope mount. I chose the XS Sight Systems mount due to looks and robustness. To attach this mount, degrease both the barrel and the scope mount, attach the mount with JB Weld, make sure the Weaver rail is aligned with the receiver, and let it dry. After the JB Weld is dry, use Brownell’s Acraglas or similar to fill any voids between the mount and the barrel.

The final step is to fit the stock. I used an ATI Enfield Stock, and it worked pretty well. Some work needed to be done to make room for the scope mount. I used a Dremel tool with a sanding drum tip and checked for fit constantly. At this point you could also glass bed the stock, add a third sling swivel ahead of the trigger guard for a Ching Sling, and clean up excess plastic around the seams. A handy thing about the ATI stock is that the butt is hollow, so you can remove the plastic butt plate and store survival items inside (fishing line and hooks, matches, para cord, etc.). To allow easy access, I bought a Limb Saver slip-on recoil pad and slipped it directly over the open stock.

A scope with intermediate eye relief will be needed once you have a completed rifle. My preferred scope is the Leupold FX-II 2.5 x 28mm IER SCOUT.

A Ching Sling is also a nice option, although a normal sling can certainly be used. The only officially licensed manufacturer of a nylon version of the Ching Sling is The Wilderness.

Now not only do you have a versatile survival rifle for around $300 to $400, but you also have the practical gunsmithing experience from doing the project yourself, which could prove invaluable when the SHTF.

The Falling Dollar–Sheltering Your Assets in Steel and Alloy Tangibles

In a recent e-mail, SurvivalBlog reader Mike the Blacksmith mentioned two articles that confirm what I’ve been saying for several years–that the US Dollar is headed for further significant collapse in foreign exchange: Jim Rogers quits dollar after declaring US recession, and IMF chief warns dollar may suffer ‘abrupt fall’. The latter article is frightening. It is noteworthy that since the first month that SurvivalBlog went live (in August of Aught Five) I have been warning readers to minimize their exposure to dollar-denominated assets. Instead, invest in tangibles, tangibles, tangibles!

Other than silver, and productive rural land that could be used as a survival retreat, my personal favorite tangible investment at present is full capacity magazines. I’m talking about the kind that hold cartridges for firearms–not Architectural Digest magazine. You should buy only magazines that either original military contract, or from original factory makers. (No aftermarket junk!) Not only will these shelter you from further declines in the dollar, but they are also likely to zoom up in price if and when another Federal magazine ban is enacted. (This is very likely if the Democrats win the White House.) During the last Federal ban, which ran for 10 years before thankfully expiring (due to a “sunset clause” in 2004), the price of Glock pistol magazines jumped from $15 each to $75 each. Even relative “commodity” magazines like USGI alloy M16 magazines doubled or tripled in value. Magazines would also, of course, be very desirable barter items WTSHTF. I expect that if and when a new Federal ban is enacted it will have no sunset clause. Thus, it will have the same effect as the civilian transferable machinegun “freeze” enacted in 1986. With no end to that ban in sight, prices have skyrocketed.

Keep in mind that several states and localities have enacted “high capacity ” magazine bans, so research your laws before purchasing. (I prefer to use the more accurate terms “full capacity” versus “restricted capacity.”) OBTW, I am pleased to report that Ohio recently enacted state preemption of local firearms laws, so the bans in Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, and Toledo, Ohio are now null and void.

If you have any extra room in your gun vault, then stuff it full of what are commonly called “high cap” (11+ round) magazines. Specifically , after buying a large supply of magazines for your own battery of guns, I recommend buying the following varieties rifle and pistol magazines as an investment: M16, M14, M1 Carbine, FAL, L1A1, Mini-14, HK, Glock, SIG, Browning Hi-Power, Beretta M92, S&W 59/69 series, Ruger P85, ParaOrdnance, Springfield XD, Beta C-MAGs, Steyr, AK family (magazines from former Soviet Bloc countries only, not Chinese) Galil, and Valmet. Buy whatever you can find at reasonable prices. Since there are also semi-auto pistols and carbines out there that take submachinegun magazines (such as Uzi, Thompson, MP5, M3 Greasegun, Ingram M10 and M11/9, Sten, and Sterling), you might also buy a few of those.

To summarize, my guidance on full capacity magazine purchasing is:

1.) Buy only magazines that either original military contract, or from original factory makers. (No aftermarket junk!) Beware of marketing terms like “GI Type” and “top quality.” If it isn’t original, then don’t buy it, or you will be buying grief. Not only will they have poor feeding reliability, but they will also only have marginal resale value.

2.) First, buy extra magazines for the guns that you already own.

3.) Next, buy extra magazines for the guns that you definitely plan to buy. If a ban is enacted, then all semi-autos may be like Valmet rifles are today: where the guns are easier to find than their spare magazines. The law of supply and demand is inescapable.

4.) Next, buy extra magazines for the guns that you hope to buy, or expect that your children might need someday.

5.) Next, buy extra magazines for both the pistols and rifles that your local police and sheriff’s department issues. (If they don’t carry their long guns in visible racks, then ask them what model they carry in the trunks of their cruisers.)

6.) Next, buy a fairly large quantity of ubiquitous magazines that will serve well as barter items.(Mostly M14, M16, Mini-14, M1 Carbine, Glock, and Beretta M92.)

7.) Buy a smaller, but carefully selected supply of scarce European magazines. (Steyr AUG, HK, SIG, Valmet etc.) The day may come when not even large wads of cash buy you any full capacity magazines, but some owners will be willing to trade for magazines that they want or need.

8.) Once you have your supply of magazines in hand, divide them in three co-equal piles and store them in three separate locations, to protect yourself against burglary or other unpleasant future circumstances.

If you do decide to stock up on full capacity magazines as I have advised, then please buy from our paying advertisers, first: Gun Parts Guy (who, for example currently sells slightly used Imbel FAL magazines for under $8 each), Green Mountain Gear (who, for example currently sells new G3/HK91 20 round alloy magazines. for under $5 each). Then consult our Affiliate advertisers: US Cavalry Store, and GunBroker.com (auctions). If they don’t have what you are looking for, then some other magazine vendors that I can recommend are CDNN Sports, Cheaper Than Dirt, and Midway USA. (OBTW, if you buy from any of them, please recommend that they become SurvivalBlog advertisers. Thanks!)

Odds ‘n Sods:

Desert T. sent this article from las Vegas: Hot seller’s market shifts into reverse — Upside-down sales picture won’t change soon

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The Army Aviator notes: “On Sunday, the US Dollar Index dropped -0.25 to 76.98. What a Sunday! Did you see the Euro go to 1.4498 [ to the US Dollar]? That’s darned near 1.45, huh?
What a day.” JWR Adds: The opening bell in the US market on Monday morning should be very interesting. It is also no surprise that the price of gold just spiked in Asia.

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Frequent contributor RBS recommended this piece from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard’s blog: The Sky has Already Fallen

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“We all knew there was just one way to improve our odds for survival: train, train, train. Sometimes, if your training is properly intense it will kill you. More often — much, much more often — it will save your
life.” – Richard Marcinko, former US Navy SEAL Team Commander

Letter Re: Gold is Going Up, But is Now a Good Time to Buy?

Jim,
I am going to become a 10 Cent Challenge subscriber before the end of the month because the information provided in SurvivalBlog is invaluable and has forever changed my way of thinking!

I have been a reader for about a half year and have seen the topic of gold come up several times. Gold is apparently at a 28 year high and the desire to get invested from my personal standpoint is high but my question is do you see gold leveling out or continuing its upward trend? The other part of the equation is I am young father of four young children so my assets are extremely limited at this point in my life. That being said, I would ultimately like to “physically” acquire both gold and silver that I can keep on hand since I fear not being able to access it in a sudden SHTF scenario like a terrorist, NBC, etc. At the same time I need to balance this with buying other preparedness items that I have a long list of.

I already have a decent inventory of weapons but need more ammo than what I have on hand. I have about 1,500 pounds of various wheat, soy, rice, corn, and barley but most of that was nitrogen packed in 1999 putting me in position to need to rotate those supplies with a newer inventory. In addition, I have started a fairly detailed list of supplies that range from communications to medical.

All that being said, I kind of feel like I am about to sit down and eat an elephant and I really don’t know the best place to start. Thank you, – Dave in Florida

JWR Replies: First, let me state forthrightly that physical preparedness for your family should be paramount. Only after you have your beans, bullets, and Band-Aids squared away should you consider buying any precious metals. In my opinion, the precious metals are still in the intermediate phase of a bull market that will likely propel gold past $1,500 per ounce, and silver past $75 per ounce. Although you will not benefit to the same extent as someone that bought silver when it was between $4.13 and $5 and ounce, you have not “missed the boat”!

I’m often asked whether I prefer silver or gold for investing and barter purposes. I strongly prefer silver, for several reasons:

1.) Silver coins are ideal for barter. Gold is essentially too compact a form of wealth for practical barter. If you need to buy a few loaves of bread, silver dimes make a lot more sense than even the smallest denomination gold coin. Sure, you could divide a gold coin with cold chisel, but that would reduce its recognizability. I still recommend buying pre-1965 US circulated 90% silver dimes and quarters, with no numismatic value. (What the rare coin dealers derisively call “junk” silver.) These coins trade solely on their silver bullion value.

2.) Silver is far more likely to double in value than gold. Not only is silver in greater relative scarcity, at present (after decades of mine production deficits for that required for industrial use), but it also will benefit from what I call the “penny stock effect.” This is a purely psychological phenomenon, since silver still seems affordable, whereas gold is already out for reach for many investors. Psychologically it is “a long way” from $700 to $1,400 in order for gold to double, but it is conceivable that silver could double from $13 to $26 in just a few days. It is much like buying a “penny stock” (under $1 per share.) It doesn’t take major moves in a market to make penny stock double in value.

3,) Silver is less likely than gold to be confiscated by government decree, in the event of a monetary crisis. The logistics of accomplishing a gold confiscation (like the one that occurred in the US in 1933) would be complex. But since silver is roughly 55 times more bulky and weighty than gold, the sheer volume of silver in circulation would make a silver confiscation very difficult to accomplish

Regarding your bulk storage foods purchased in 1999: Some of them–most notably the wheat–are worth keeping. If you bought white rice, it is still most likely edible, although its nutritive value would be marginal. But the wheat should be just fine. It has a 30+ year storage life, even without nitrogen canning, which should extend its useful life even more.

Letter Re: Influenza Exercise Shows the Potential for Major Infrastructure Disruptions

Jim:
I thought you and your readers might be interested in this flu pandemic exercise recently carried out by financial services firms. An article in Computerworld describes the scenario: “If a pandemic strikes the U.S., it will kill about 1.7 million people, hospitalize 9 million, exhaust antiviral medications and reduce basic food supplies…”, and, “Among the other things that may happen in an actual pandemic are school closings, as well as blackouts or brownouts in major metro areas because of degraded service as a result of absenteeism. Internet service throughput could be reduced by 50% due to congestion, and Web browsing timeouts would become common. Airlines would cut schedules, and garbage would pile up on streets.”

The article’s fairly standard mainstream media flu pandemic coverage, the kind I’m sure we’ve all seen before. What makes this really interesting is that the scenario information used for the exercise has been posted online. It’s somewhat focused on the financial sector, but there’s a lot of good general information about what might happen when a major flu pandemic strikes. – Chris in Utah

Letter Re: Thoughts on Defensive Handguns

Dear JWR:
I have been reading SurvivalBlog for about a month and I really enjoy it a lot. One subject came to mind that I thought was worth discussing. That area is the [Colt Model] 1911. It is worth saying that I find the term combat tupperware incredibly amusing, as a Glock owner. I do not know what kind of high end custom 1911s people are talking about when they say it is necessary to spend $2,000 to get this platform to be functional. I bought a Springfield [Armory] Mil Spec .45 for about $535 and it works fine though it isn’t as pretty as an Ed Brown or Les Baer.

Some individuals speak about the guns being really unreliable. From my experience these claims are unfounded. The Springfield and Glock 22 have each jammed once, both were easily cleared, luckily on the range not in an emergency. I am sure the 1911 would not perform flawlessly on the Glock torture test but considering it served the US Army for both World Wars and countless smaller ones its reliability is solid enough for me.

The next point of contention that I have with criticism read on this site is about its single stack capacity and the weakness against multiple targets. I think it is worth remembering that in TEOTWAWKI and probably most of you will be carrying an assault rifle so the .45’s magazine capacity of 8+1 is not a big concern. The real niche of the handgun is before the time that I hope never comes! Since it is not convenient or socially/legally acceptable to carry an assault rifle in a 3 point sling to the grocery store or while driving a tractor we are left with a pistol for self protection the vast majority of the time.

The average gunfight is at very close range with a couple of shots fired. During gunfights where individuals (almost always police officers) run out of ammo and find themselves changing magazines rapidly under fire it was because they missed their target(s)! Not because their handguns did not have the needed stopping power or because there were a dozen attackers. Someone can have an extended 33 round magazine in a Glock 17 with four spares in their cargo pocket but if they are not able to accurately engage their target(s) they will probably not survive a gunfight. It is not particularly important what kind of gun you have, it is important that you can accurately engage targets. That is my 2 cents on that topic. – Ryan

Odds ‘n Sods:

Will the house-flipping contrapreneurs on both coasts of the US soon be in Deep Schumer? Reader Charley S. sent us this snippet from The Daily Reckoning: “Two million homes will go into foreclosure in the next two years, if home prices continue to slump, said a report released by Joint Economic Committee Chairman Senator Charles Schumer.”

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Jason flagged this one: US lacks enough labs to test for contamination if a ‘dirty bomb’ explodes in a major city

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A hat tip to SJC for sending this: Report: Oil production peaked in 2006, will halve by 2030, possibly leading to war

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Karen B. sent us a link to a price history chart for wheat.