The Demise of the US Dollar–The Handwriting is on the Wall

The major news outlets have finally started shouting about the collapsing value of the dollar and the bull market in precious metals. (Looking at the charts, $820 per ounce seems to be the new floor for spot gold.) Just as I predicted, it was a move by China that precipitated the latest drop in the dollar. Thanks, BTW, to the five readers that all sent that link. I should mention that several SurvivalBlog readers mentioned that article. Reader Mike the Blacksmith noted: “The remarks by Cheng on world currency status is the most important point in this article.” The currency markets are coming apart at the seams. Reader Chris S. pointed to the one year chart for the US Dollar versus the Canadian Dollar.His comments: “Notice the steep drop? It hasn’t even looked close to this since the 1970s during the worst of the oil crunch. Other countries are beginning to stop trading in dollars altogether. When someone says “your money is no good here” now, it’s not a compliment and a prelude to a freebie. It means they don’t want our money. Considering our main export to the rest of the world right now is our paper money, this doesn’t bode well. I would say that we could work our way out of this by building things the rest of the world wants to buy, but our so-called leadership in this country (both political and business) has also exported the jobs and sold off our infrastructure. We’re getting increasingly stuck with empty factories and mortgage debt in a real estate market that no one wants to finance. BTW, the US Dollar is also now beginning to lose value against the Mexican Peso…” Also in the news, there are rumors of a formal dollar devaluation.

And if that weren’t bad enough, we read some disturbing news on the credit market front: Markets fear banks have $1 trillion in toxic debt (thanks to both D.V. and Matt B. for sending that link.) But wait, it gets worse: Bond insurers set off fresh wave of credit panic.

Getting back to the FOREX markets, it is noteworthy that the USD Index has broken down below the 76 level. When I last checked, it was at 75.405, and falling. From deep in his lair (rumored to beneath Zurich’s Paradeplatz), my friend The Chartist Gnome tells me that it is a long way down to the next interim support level. (For those of you that deride technical analysis, just ignore the following.) This SurvivalBlog snippet from a few weeks back bears repeating:” [I had mentioned ‘Some analysts suggest 75 or perhaps even 72 as the next support level for the US Dollar Index’. The Chartist Gnome said that I was being overly optimistic. By his calculations, ‘the next logical support level for the USD Index is 72 and then if that fails to hold, we can expect a step off the cliff with no support until 42.’ Lest you think that this is some wild-eyed exaggeration, Jordan Roy-Byrne (editor of The Trendsman) came up with almost identical numbers. (Namely, 72 and 40 support levels.) Gulp! A USD Index level of 42 would equate to around $2.75 to buy a Euro and $4.02 to buy a British pound.”

I often tell my consulting clients that it is impossible to predict short term market moves, but I’m often asked for advice on long term trends. My favorite bit of sage advice to quote about the UD Dollar comes from economist Ed Daughty, who writes under the pen name The Mogambo Guru: He explains: “You paint a dollar sign on a rock, which you can also use to defend yourself, and (according to the instructions), ‘Hold the rock in an outstretched hand, making sure the rock is well away from your body, then say aloud ‘Oh, Magnificent Mogambo U.S. Dollar Index Predictor, what will the dollar’s value be over the long run?’ then let go of the rock.’ It’s uncanny how accurate it is!”

I’ve said it before, and I’ll probably say it again: Protect yourself from the imminent demise of the US dollar. Get out of your dollar-denominated investments. If you have an IRA, talk to Swiss America and roll over your IRA into a warehoused US Gold Eagle IRA. Sells your stocks and bonds.Even the best of them is no protection when the currency unit itself is destroyed. Sell your silly jet ski and big screen plasma HD television. Instead, buy productive farm land in a lightly populated region–land that that can first and foremost serve as a survival retreat. (See our spin-off SurvivalRealty.com web site for specially-selected retreat properties.) Get your family’s food storage and survival gear squared away. Buy some practical tangible barter goods, like common caliber ammunition and full capacity magazines. After that, if you have any funds left over, invest it in physical silver (such as $1,000 face value 90% silver pre-1965 mint date coin bags) and store it in your home vault.

Letter Re: Living Off The Land

Mr. Rawles,
My Survival Group was having a discussion the other night, and we got to talking about “What if / Worst case” stuff. One of the situations involved the old “Lost in the wilderness with nothing but your knife and your lighter”. (you do carry a pocket knife and a lighter with you, right?) That got us to thinking…what would you eat? Most of us tended to think of ways to snare small game, but then we got to talking about wild plants. Before long, it became clear that not only is foraging for wild plant potentially more efficient than snaring wild game, its also much easier. There are almost always edible plants all around you, no matter where you are. Usually within arms reach! Case in point: The Pine Tree.

Pine needles can be easily brewed into tea which contains many nutrients and vitamins. Pine cones can be roasted over a fire (you did start a fire already, right?) to open the cone and access the seeds inside. In a longer term situation…those same seeds can also be ground into a type of course flour. One can also east the inner bark of Pine trees if nothing else is available. And that’s just the common Pine tree, which grows almost everywhere! Speaking of Tree bark: remember that Aspirin (acetylsalicylic acid) was originally derived from teas made from the inner bark of the Willow tree.
Anyway, you get the point. A little study on the matter can go a long way toward making you self sufficient as far as food is concerned, by enabling you to supplement your dry-stores (you do have food stores, right?) with fresh greens providing vitamins and nutrients year round. Just remember what Crocodile Dundee said “You can live on it, but it tastes like…”Well, you know what.

Here area couple of web sites I’ve come across that deal with this topic:
Linda Runyon’s “Of the Field” Web Page
 WildwoodSurvival.com/

There are, of course lots of other web sites out there, as well as good old fashioned EMP-proof books as well.

Good luck, and KYPD, – Krys in Idaho

Letter Re: Advice on Sources for a FN FAL Clone Rifle

Hi,
I am a relatively new but loyal reader and can use some advice. I am looking to purchase a .308 battle rifle (eventually five or six of them) and wonder if you have any resources for fairly priced new FN FAL (type) firearms and magazines? Thanks, – Ryan

JWR Replies: If you don’t mind a paper trail, some of the best bargains are some of the “builds” done by individual members at The FALFiles Forums. Depending on circumstances (such as car repairs, loss of jobs, and divorces) they are sometimes sold below cost. For example, here is a very nice L1A1 presently being offered.by a gent that needs to raise cash for house construction.

It is possible to get lucky and find a FAL or L1A1 listed at the FALFiles Marketplace Board that is being sold in your own state, being sold by a private party. Of course any transfers across state lines would have to be processed through an FFL holder. State laws on firearms also vary widely. Research them before you make a purchase. If avoiding a paper trail is a high priority, then I recommend that you make all of your gun purchases at gun shows from private parties, or through GunBroker.com (on-line auctions) or GunsAmerica.com (fixed price sales–usually more expensive). Both of these web sites have search features that allow you to search “by State”, allowing you to find only sellers from your own state. Again, that way you won’t run afoul of the Federal law that prohibits the transfer of a modern (post-1898) gun across state lines, except through a FFL dealer.

You also asked about magazines. Your best source for both metric FAL and inch pattern (L1A1) magazines would be Gun Parts Guy (he currently sells slightly used Imbel FAL magazines for under $8 each and I heard that he also obtained a batch of brand new in the wrapper Australian L1A1 magazines.

Letter Re: Home/Retreat Power Generator Noise Reduction by “Jerry the Generator Guy”

Jim,
One thing to note about generator noise reduction. It’s not just a matter of running quiet by normal standards. It’s a matter of running quiet when nothing else is making any noise. With the grid down, a lot of normal background noise will be gone. That was one reason for my choice of solar electric power over a generator. – Raymond

JWR Replies: Remember that light discipline will be just as important as noise discipline, post-TEOTWAWKI. It is important to have the materials on hand to black-out your windows. Regardless of your power source, if you have power when nobody else does for blocks–or miles, then your house would be a “come loot me” beacon at night. Buy a stack of 1/2-inch plywood and two dozen 2″x4″x8′ studs now. Carefully measure and cut inserts for each of your windows, and label each of them for quick reference. The edges can be wrapped with rags or old blankets. They can be tacked in place (so that they don’t fall inward) with finishing nails or power screws driven in above, parallel to the sheet of plywood. At the same time, build a framework of 2x4s so that you can make a relatively light proof “airlock”–something a little bigger than a phone booth. It can be covered in opaque blankets. That way you can open your front door without fear of a blast of light escaping. T o be prepared for any overlooked light leaks, buy a few cans of expanding insulating foam (such as Dow “Great Stuff”, available at any hardware or building supply store such as Lowe’s or Home Depot) and some dark spray paint. Once you have your blackout shutters up, do a check for light leaks. As a final test, look for light leaks while wearing night vision goggles. (You will be amazed at what you missed!) It takes considerable effort to make a house that light-proof. But perhaps that is overkill, considering the capabilities of most would-be looters.

Letter Re: Nutritional Supplements and Preparedness

Jim,
There is one thing that I think that would be very helpful to also stock up for WTSHTF, that would be supplements there are several out there and other products just for general health like protein powers / Met rex formulas and so on. I have some experience with these things from the Army – to helping my father fight cancer. Most of these added to a meal would help your body with many things like extra calories, to repairing muscle, blood pressure, vision, heart, to just good general heath. I really do not know of a shelf life and whether or not they would store easily. What would be your thoughts?

Taurine
From Body Building For You
From The Magnesium Website
From Better Nutrition

Acetyl-l-Carnitine
From Wikipedia
From OSU
From BodyBuilding.com
From Dr. Ray Sahelian’s web site

Arginine
From Wikipedia
From the Vitality Research Institute
Arginine Versus Aspirin

The reasons that I picked these three is because I just finished a test on a product that I have been using. A few years ago I had to entirely give up coffee on doctor’s orders. If your anything like I was on that news he should of taken me out behind the building and just shot me, no more coffee that was my life juice. He then told me that he also had to give up coffee and that he had found something else it was a Sobe product called No Fear and that his body had thanked him for it many times over. So I tried it, at first I thought okay what’s the big deal about this stuff then in about a week I felt better and a lot of other things happened–I had focus and drive, no heartburn, and my body started to feel much better. So one day I found this product on sale so I bought a lot of it because in the mini marts and such stores they are about $2.50 a can but I found it for 99 cents a can so I purchased 22 cases–all they had. Well, that was about three years ago, just to see. I put about three cases in my storage food area. I just [recently] used myself as a guinea pig and drank two cans from the stores and it was just fine. So today I called Sobe and asked they if they had a shelf life on this product they said no that had never been asked before. (Note: Do not drink more than three a day or you will not sleep.)

Next, when my father came down with throat cancer and had his voice box removed he was eating from a feeding tube (And will be for the rest of his life). He could not get his weight back on that he need to survive. With what the hospital gave him, so I called one of my old Army buddies and he came up with a mix of protein powder, Met-Rx, and baby food blended together. It worked very well for a long time and it wasn’t fat that he put on. Rather, it was healthy muscle weight even through radiation therapy he did not lose weight. So I have several hundred pounds of these products in my food stores. The products that I stocked up on were Mega Mass-3000 (protein powder), Met-Rx, and other supplements. – Chad

Odds ‘n Sods:

RBS flagged this from The Age in Australia: Crash is coming, warns top investor

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Thanks to Eric S. for sending this article on a “polemical documentary”: New ‘disaster’ movie warns world of oil apocalypse

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An article that provides some details on the Robert Karhe US Gold Eagle coin payroll tax case, which resulted in a mix of acquittals and a hung juries–no convictions.

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The excellent Comet Gold web site (often cited in SurvivalBlog) recently merged with The Contrary Investor’s Cafe. Please update your links/bookmarks.

Notes from JWR:

Wow! I guess that by now you’ve heard that the spot price of silver jumped nearly a dollar an ounce yesterday and in early morning (Asian) trading to $15.70+ per ounce. Meanwhile, gold topped $830 an ounce. I told you that the precious metals bull would continue his charge. This is hardly the top! The full implications of the housing market collapse and the credit market melt-down have yet to be felt. To use a quaint aphorism: “You ain’t seen nuthin’ yet!”

Speaking of surging numbers, from our hit map I can see that Europe has developed a severe case of SurvivalBlog “measles.” Welcome to all of our new readers in continental Europe and the British Isles! I’m also gratified to see that the US and Canada are well-blanketed with SurvivalBlog readers. Please keep spreading the word!

Are You Ready to Get Out of Dodge in Winter Weather?

Here in the northern hemisphere, winter is rapidly approaching. So it is timely that I write about vehicular mobility in winter weather.

Every well-prepared family should have one or more four wheel drive vehicles with snow tires or chains. For those of you that have “11th Hour” Get Out of Dodge (G.O.O.D.) plan, I trust that you have pre-positioned the vast majority of your food and gear at your intended retreat. Towing a trailer on icy winter roads is a dicey proposition even in the best of times. In my estimation, piloting an overloaded vehicle with an overloaded trailer WTSHTF is tantamount to suicide. If you’ve planned things properly and pre-positioned your gear, then there is no need for a trailer. Just one quick trip with fuel cans, bug-out bags, backpacks, web gear and weapons cases should suffice. Enough said.

So what do you need in your vehicle to make sure that it gets you from Point A to Point B? I assume that at all times you carry a tool kit, flashlights, road flares, engine starting fluid, first aid/trauma kit, chemical light sticks, a CB radio, and your usual “Bug Out Bag” basics including food and water. So lets talk specifically about mobility essentials:

Traction sand. You probably already have a couple of bales of USGI sand bags. Just fill a bag (or two) with coarse sand and tie them shut with a pair of plastic cable ties to prevent leakage.

Single-Bit Axe, at least 3 pound. (Such as Northern Tool & Equipment Item# 119922)

Shovel. A proper USGI folding entrenching tool (not a cheap Asian knock-off) might suffice, but I prefer a more substantial 40-inch D-handle round nose shovel, such as the Kodiak, available from Hector’s hardware.)

Hi-Lift Jack (aka “Sheepherder’s jack”) (Such as Northern Tool & Equipment Item# 14421)

Choker/tow chain (such as 4WD.com Item # 26083.) These should also be available from JCWhitney.com 4WD Parts and most local auto parts stores.

Ratchet hoist aka “Come-along”. (Or better yet, carry two.) I like the Dayton and Tuf-Tug brands brands. (Such as Northern Tool & Equipment Item# 152911)

Several short lengths of chain, steel sleeve-locking carabiners, and large Grade 8 bolts with nuts that can be used to connect/secure chains. (Sometimes you need to improvise.)

Tire chains (Yes, even if you have studded snow tires.) And if you must depend on a trailer for winter G.O.O.D., then get chains for the trailer, too.

And to risk some controversy: Bolt cutters–at least 24″ length. I prefer 36″. (Such as Northern Tool & Equipment Item# 558397). Sadly, very few of these are now made in the States like my trusty old Woodings-Verona brand. Note: Please don’t do anything illegal. Also be advised that in some of the liberal Nanny States, carrying bolt cutters in your rig could be considered “criminal intent.” But here in The Un-named Western State, they just call it a “A real good idea.”

Other Cold Weather Essentials (this list assumes that you will be transiting snow country–modify it accordingly if you live in the South):

Warm Clothing, pile caps, and gloves

Extra pairs of dry socks

Ice creepers (such as “YAKTRAX”, available from Lehmans.com)

Snow shoes and spare binding parts (Such as the Huron-made snowshoes available from Lehmans.com)

Sleeping bag(s). I prefer the Wiggy’s brand FTRSS. We have five sets of them here at the ranch, and they have served us very well for nearly 15 years.

Fire starting kit with plenty of tinder.

Letter Re: Tree Planting Hardiness Zones Map for the US

Sir:
I guess this has been out for a year but it’s new to me that the Arbor Day Foundation has come out with a new Hardiness Zone map. I live in northern Ohio so I moved from a 5 to a 6 zone. Global warming? This makes a big difference in the fruit trees I can plant. Some areas have moved up two zones! In the past I was considering putting in a few acres of Paulownia trees for future timber but the nursery recommended only Zones 6 and above for timber production. This is a big deal for me. I’d love to get some advice from your readers whether I should start following the new Zone map or stick to zone 5 trees. An acre of Paulownia trees are about $ 2,000 for just the seedlings. I’d hate to be out that money and the labor involved if they don’t grow well. – Adam in Ohio

JWR Replies: I’m the ultraconservative type, and I’m suspicious of alleged climate change (versus short term changes that are caused by the 11 year solar cycle.) You never know when a hard winter will wipe out a planting. Am I too conservative? I’d appreciate comments from readers on this issue.

Two Letters Re: Advice on Rifle Stock Pouches

Sir
I saw in the blog someone mentioning the stock pouches soldiers have on their rifles overseas. Sadly these pouches are there because our servicemembers are not trusted with a loaded weapon while on the FOB. We are required to maintain possession of the weapon and a minimum amount of ammunition (usually one magazine) but we are not allowed to have the weapon loaded. Unfortunately we don’t teach our servicemembers to be safe with weapons–we simply don’t allow them the possibility to have an accident. – Jake

Dear Jim:
I use the SpecOps [brand] Ready Fire Mode pouches, and second your recommendation.
The biggest advantage I see is that you will often not have all your web gear (with spare mags) on your body in a self defense or survival situation. Standing guard duty in a crisis, of course you will, but often you are doing other work or resting, and not wearing full “battle rattle” 24/7. So having an extra mag on the gun – in one grab and go package – could be a lifesaver.
Secondly, the extra weight of a mag at the end of the buttstock counterbalances the front-end heaviness of many .308s. So, even though you are adding weight to the gun, the weapon handles better and feels better. Most noticeably, it is easier to balance in one hand while changing mags. Plus the extra weight helps with recoil.
Finally they have very thoughtfully provided a D-ring to attach a sling to the top of the buttstock.
Better photos and more technical details at the Spec-Ops company web site …but Midway USA offers it at a better price than the factory [for direct sales]. Regards, – OSOM

Odds ‘n Sods:

SF in Hawaii suggested this BBC article: State of the planet, in graphics.
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My brother mentioned the WikiHow article “How to Cook Food on Your Car’s Engine”. Back in the early 1980s, before MREs were widely issued, in the US Army we often warmed C-Ration cans on top of our vehicle engine blocks.

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From perennial contributor RBS: Credit Bubble Bulletin: Structured finance under duress

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Stephen in Iraq sent us this: Atlanta water use is called shortsighted

Note from JWR:

The high bid is now at $400 in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction, for four items: a Baygen Freeplay Summit AM/FM/Shortwave digitally-tuned radio, and a Baygen Sherpa hand crank flashlight. These were kindly donated by Ready Made Resources, one of our most loyal advertisers. Also included in the auction lot is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing, and an autographed copy of my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse”. These four items have a combined value of more than $350. The auction ends on November 15th. Just e-mail us your bid.

Letter Re: Home/Retreat Power Generator Noise Reduction

Hi Jim-
I wanted to comment on the generator noise reduction article by Jerry. An easy and relatively inexpensive solution that gives dramatic noise reduction for portable generators: Rubbermaid-type plastic storage sheds. These sheds typically have about a 5′ wide x 2.5′ deep footprint, a composite floor, and are an ideal size for a typical, 2,000 to 7,500 watt generators.

To modify the plastic shed for running the generator inside, four important, simple modifications are needed: 1) Cutting a small intake port on one side, and covering it with any type of breathable, mesh screen, to keep critters out. 2) Cutting a 3″ or 4″ round exhaust port on the opposite side from the intake. 3) Mounting a marine/bilge type 12 VDC exhaust blower motor to the exhaust port and wiring it to the 12 VDC circuit of the generator. 4) Placing an aluminum-faced fiberglass HVAC insulation panel where the generator’s exhaust will most closely hit the plastic interior wall of the
shed. The exhaust is hot enough to melt the plastic without the insulation.

My setup has two 4″ Rule brand marine bilge blowers wired in parallel, plugged into the 12 volt panel outlet of my Generac portable generator. When the generator is started, the blowers start. I have taken temperature measurements inside the enclosure with the generator running, and it only varies a few degrees from the ambient air temperature. The blowers exhaust a tremendous volume of air; heat doesn’t build up inside the enclosure because the air turns over so quickly.

The sound reduction is tremendous. The generator becomes a distant background noise at about 50′. Much more than that, and it becomes nearly
inaudible.

Cutting a hole in the composite floor for some type of security fixture to lock the generator to is also an easy project.
Hope this is useful. Regards, – Rich S.