Letter Re: Useful LifeHacker Articles

Mr. Rawles:
There are so many great and not-so-great ideas on the LifeHacker site including this one I found showing you how to use C cell batteries in place of a D cell compartment in an emergency situation:

There are some other interesting things on this site like creating make-shift air conditioning systems using cold well water (others have made emergency air conditioners using beverage coolers, fans and copper coils): DIY Heat Exchanger and Make Your Own Air Conditioner.
There is this one showing you how someone made hand washing more efficient while filling the tank of his toilet. [JWR Adds: I would recommend skipping this one. The implementation shown uses plywood which cannot be kept sanitary. It also might result in a smelly toilet tank if you use an non-chlorinated water source such as well water or spring water.]

And here’s one with a video demonstrating how one can cheaply acquire 8 – 1.5v button cell batteries from 1 – A23 12v battery:

Well, there’s enough on this LifeHacker site to keep you busy for some time. Enjoy!, – Tanker

Letter Re: Honey Prices Escalating, Just as Predicted

Jim:

Saw the post regarding imported honey. Heard the same thing from my small time honey supplier. For west coast Costco’s, Silverbow honey is pure and made from US and Canadian honey. Verified this with the folks at Silverbow, based in Moses Lake, Washington state. For the record, I do my best to support local businesses and suppliers in Washington state and the Pacific Northwest, followed (naturally!) by SurvivalBlog [paid advertisers and affiliate] advertisers. Regards, – MP near Seattle

Odds ‘n Sods:

“Dancing Barefoot” sent us this: H5N1 Asian Avian Flu Now in Germany: “Tests have found that birds at a poultry farm in southern Germany died of the H5N1 strain of bird flu, and some 160,000 birds were being slaughtered as a precaution, authorities said.”

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I heard from Vic at Safecastle that Mountain House freeze dried storage food prices are going up substantially on September 1st. OBTW, they still have some 7 Day Just in Case Kits of Mountain House foods (in handy pouches) on sale for just $100 postage paid. Get your Mountain House orders in to Safecastle, ASAP!

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The big put option play: Mystery trader bets market will crash by a third. Obviously this is either someone with killer insider knowledge or with no sense whatsoever.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“I would argue that Countrywide is insolvent. Their only asset is their pricing platform, their business algorithm, and that’s not working. The next biggest asset they have is the toner for their copiers.” – Joe Mason

Note from JWR:

When reviewing our blog statistics, I just noticed that more than 33% of SurvivalBlog readers now use the Firefox browser. It is a much more secure browser than Microsoft Explorer. I highly recommend that all of our readers make the switch. And speaking of security and privacy, I also recommend using Scroogle.org’s scraper as an anonymous interface to Google searches.

The Future of the U.S. Suburban Real Estate Versus Rural Retreat Real Estate

In recent months I’ve been asked by several consulting clients if it is still a good time to buy a retreat property. The answer is yes. If you find a really phenomenal property, the answer is always yes. (Yes if you can buy it without going deep into to debt. ) In fact, some close family members bought the place of their dreams after consulting with me this last year.

Say that you find a property that is in the region that you’ve selected, and it has all of the features that you’ve been looking for–such as gravity fed spring water, defendable terrain, good soil, open space for gardening and livestock–then you probably shouldn’t let it get away from you.

It is notable that SurvivalBlog recently launched a spin-off web site–SurvivalRealty.com–which features only survival retreat properties. Some might think that this is not a wise time to start such a venture. But consider that most of the advertised retreat locales are in areas where the price of real estate is likely to drop no more than 10%, even in the event of a prolonged bear market in real estate. In those areas, the downside risk is minimal. Further, the Baby Boomers will start hitting retirement age in 2011. many of them are planning on relocating to rural areas at that time. Some will be planning on using their equity in their city or suburban home to buy a home outright in a low-cost-of living rural area. Some will be retiring to a locale with great hunting or great fishing, to fulfill a lifelong dream. Others have a dream of owning rural acreage so they can have all the critters they’ve dreamed of, and that big garden. I believe as we approach 2011, property in rural areas will actually increase in value, especially if they have water frontage, are in an area renowned for great hunting or great fishing, or in some other way meet the qualifications of being someone’s retirement “dream” property. Our close family members took our advice and bought a waterfront property in a prime hunting and fishing location in the inland northwest. If the Schumer hits the fan then they are ahead of the game because they are actively preparing and upgrading their retreat. If it doesn’t, then they have still made a great investment for the future by buying their retirement property way ahead of the Baby Boomers.

Meanwhile, in the Coastal Suburbs…

In contrast to rural retreat properties, coastal suburban real estate is clearly in a declining market cycle, where time is on your side. There will be exceptions to the down trend, like the Silicon Valley, where industry is still humming along (at least for now) and where new immigrants are keeping demand high. But within a couple of years, most of the over-bought coastal real estate in the US will resemble Cape Coral Florida, where the listed prices have already dropped 22%, or Phoenix, where the inventory of unsold houses jumped 523% in one year. It is in the formerly “hot market” coastal regions that prices could decline by as much as 40% before the market starts to recover. These areas include San Diego, Orange County, Sacramento, Seattle, much of Florida, the Atlanta metroplex, the entire Washington DC region, eastern New York, and the entire “commuter corridor” portions of New England.

Economist John Mauldin recently reported that the largest number of residential home adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) resets–some $110 billion worth–will occur between October of 2007 and March of 2008, with the peak in March. Come next spring and summer, look for the U.S. home mortgage foreclosure rate to skyrocket. California is already leading the pack on foreclosures, registering their highest foreclosure rate in 11 years. The ARM resets (or “ARM twisting”, as I call it) will only make matters worse. Banks will be repossessing hundreds of thousands of houses and they will doubtless dump most of them on the market. And remember that these are regional markets that already has far too much unsold inventory. (In Sacramento, California, there are so many vacant houses with unkempt swimming pools that public health officials are fearing outbreaks of mosquito-borne illnesses.) I think that we can look for the bottom to fall out of the US coastal real estate market, most likely next summer. And by the summer of 2009, I predict that we will witness some “fire sale” prices, particularly in the inflated price regions where ARMs predominated. Again, for anyone looking to purchase property in coastal regions, time is on your side. Just watch the market patiently. In particular, watch for foreclosures. (Subscribing to a service like Foreclosure.com or RealtyTrac.com is a good way to avoid missing foreclosures as they become available in your chosen retreat area.) Keep your land-buying bankroll in easily-accessible short term paper–preferably something like TIPS. Be patient. It may take as long as eight years for the coastal real estate market to bottom. But when the price is right, pounce.

Today’s market is already a “buyer’s market.” Soon, it will be a genuine bargain shopper’s market. With this in mind, don’ hesitate to make a “low-ball” offer. Make your offer low enough to offset the downside market risk. That way you will be able to sleep at night. As the market deteriorates, offers will be few an far between, so even low offers will be given consideration. And if yours is the only offer, then you might be pleasantly surprised. Assuming there is a property that you really want but the asking price is too high, one tactic is to make a standing offer at a lowball price. Such offers are best made in October or November. Tell the seller that your offer will stand for six months. Odds are that the offer will initially be rejected. But then, if the seller gets nervous about the market and has a mood swing into desperation, the chances are good that the seller will eventually accept your offer. OBTW, your real estate agent will probably discourage you from this sort of tactic. But remember that he makes his living on commissions from home sale closings, so anything that delays a closing is discouraged. They just love that phrase “time is of the essence”. But in today’s market, at least on the coasts, time is on your side.

Letter Re: Michigan’s Upper Peninsula as a Retreat Locale

Dear Mr. Rawles,
I am a recently retired auto worker, electrician by trade, currently live on 5 acres 25 miles north of Detroit. We have plenty of woods and a nice garden area. When we built the house back in 1987 it was out in the boonies, in the past 20 years developers have bought most of the surrounding property and subdivided it. With the exception of the two 5 acre parcels to the north of us we are completely surrounded by houses. Most of the neighbors are nice people who we get along well with. We do get some trespassers from time to time on the property, these are usually suburban people who feel that our woods is a nature sanctuary for them. When we had the major power outage 4 years ago everyone helped each other out, sharing resources. I still do not feel comfortable being so close to Detroit. Having grown up in Detroit I can vividly remember the riots that occurred in the city when I was a small child.
Our family has spent many summer vacations in the Upper Peninsula (UP) and always enjoyed the people and forests of the UP. Recently we have been considering purchasing a parcel of land in the UP and building a retreat there. We are considering the eastern or central portions of the UP. There is plenty of good water, trees, and deer and small game are in abundance. The limiting factors as we see it are the cold winters, distance, and having to cross the Mackinac Bridge. Of course hard winters seem to keep the population down, and in a worst case scenario the Bridge could be secured to limit the number of people.
We have also considered the Thumb area of Michigan. We would be interested in your opinion.- Mark G.

JWR Replies: I’ve brushed on the “U.P.” as a retreat locale a few times in SurvivalBlog, most recently on March 28, 2007, when I wrote:

If you can stand the severe climate, then yes, the U.P. is about as good as it gets for retreat locales east of the Dakotas. For a move to the U.P., plan to budget to build a big greenhouse (with a steep-pitched roof), and big woodshed. You are going to need both! Oh yes. Don’t forget to lay in a large supply of mosquito repellent.

Here are a few notes to expand on those comments: Since I’ve never lived there, I can’t add much more than that. It is probably clear to most SurvivalBlog readers that I prefer low population density rural areas west of the Great Divide. This is for three key reasons: 1.) A more livable climate with a decent growing season, 2.) Less risk of nuclear fallout, and 3.) Much lower population density. In essence, fewer people = fewer problems. I fear that much of the eastern US has so much population that in the event of a societal collapse the wild game will be decimated, and there will be so many hungry people wandering about that looting of the worst sort will quickly ensue. Read my novel “Patriots”and my non-fiction book Rawles on Retreats and Relocation for details. But it bears mentioning that the U.P. is a special case: It is an area with a low population density. It is geographically isolated from the rest of the United States. And it has such severe winters that the climate will do far more for looter control than any ballistic measures.

One other factor is not very widely known: The utility power in the U.P. is provided by Upper Peninsula Power Company (UPPCO), which is one of the most independent utilities in the nation. While normally tied to the grid, it has enough generation capacity that it could conceivably go independent in the event of a short term grid-down situation. But I have my doubts as to whether the natural gas and coal that it uses would last very long. There are some hydroelectric dams and a few natural gas wells in the U.P., but most of their natural gas is piped long distances with the aid of compressor stations. These compressors are nearly all powered by grid power. Quelle dommage! I don’t think that the U.P. could be energy independent in a long term collapse

If you must stay in the Midwest for work or family reasons, then the U.P. is about as good as it gets. As for “the Thumb” of Michigan, it also has its merits. However, it is inferior to the U.P. in that there is no “back door” exit. But I would only feel truly “cornered” there if it were a worst case Golden Horde scenario. That might induce some severe anxiety!

Two Letters Re: Projecting Some Possible Outcomes for The Panic of 2007

Jim,
Very, very well done post, “Possible Outcomes for the Panic of 2007”. I would say you nailed it as good as can be done. However you will not be invited to be a guest on CNBC. – DAV

Jim:

Don’t ignore the compounding effects of a) an energy shock from peak oil, a major gulf hurricane, or geopolitical conflicts, b) natural disasters, particularly major 8.0+ earthquakes on the West Coast or the New Madrid fault, or c) wars and terror attacks driven by causes other than angry debt collectors (e.g. Al Qaeda, false flag attacks). All of these could shift us from the current outcome in your framework to a more painful one. Likewise, do not underestimate the risk of U.S. dollar hyperinflation – it is substantially more than 2%. Spending more money and printing money (or creating its electronic equivalent) is too much of a temptation for 99+% of politicians (Republican and Democrat) who are too cowardly to take desperately needed but painful steps and instead make everything worse with more spending, more regulation (particularly high risk of currency controls and offshore investment accounts), and more government interference in both the economy and our lives.

The most important message is to be prepared. Now is the time to get any long-lead time preparations ordered or built and to get any items that may no longer be available in the near future (particularly imported items). To the extent that you can make your family either partially or fully independent of the grid through a) installing solar electric, wind turbine, and/or small hydro alternative power systems, preferably with battery backups, b) installing combined heat and power or solar hot water systems, c) drilling water wells (even in suburbia where you have city water, d) building greenhouses and other infrastructure to grow your own food (plant and animal), and e) installing diesel backup generators with large fuel tanks, do it now because all of these are good personal investments for hard times. Although the financial markets have only dropped about 8% to 10%, at some point in the near future, one may have to think about non-conventional investment strategies to liquidate IRAs and other financial portfolios and move assets into either real goods (e.g. prepay future expenses), precious metals, or offshore in non-dollar denominated accounts with non-U.S. financial institutions with little or no exposure to derivatives. – Dr. Richard

Letter Re: Kudos for Medical Corps Training

Jim:
I’m writing to you from Caldwell, Ohio where I just completed the Medical Corps “Medical Response in Hostile Environments” field medicine class. Since Medical Corps, the group who offered the course, is one of your advertisers I thought you might like some unbiased feedback on the quality of their training.
This was an outstanding class given by a group of dedicated professionals. The information, and in particular the hands-on practice, was excellent. Our instructors included a BSN, CRNA, DDS, EMT and a former Corpsman/Medical Researcher. Their knowledge; willingness to share; humility; and hard work were impressive. You can really tell that these folks are doing what they do not for love of money, but a sincere desire to help others by sharing and teaching.
As you know Jim, I have no financial or other relationship with this group — just wanted to give you some feedback. Hope you and The Memsahib are well. Best Regards, – K.C.

JWR Adds: K.C. is a good friend of mine who is an EMT in the Western US. I highly recommend the Medical Corps training. The class that K.C. mentioned was their last course for 2007. In coming months I will be posting announcements about their training calendar for 2008. Don’t miss the opportunity to get some great training at a reasonable price.

Odds ‘n Sods:

From France24 (by way of SHTF Daily): Analysts mull contagion from US property market woes. We also read in ChannelNewsAsia: The German state of Saxony has decided to sell the Landesbank Sachsen (SachsenLB), which has been hard hit by the US sub-prime crisis

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DAV mentioned Michael J. Panzner’s Financial Armageddon blog. I was pleased to see that Michael is really digging ito the current liquidity crisis and astutely focusing on derivatives. (That will surely be “the other shoe to drop.” ) I was also delighted to see that he has a link to SurvivalBlog in his blog roll.

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Reader Jeff S. mentioned the QRPme.com web site. Jeff’s comment: “Having a QRP transmitter and receiver stashed away, in cans, for under $50 can’t be a bad thing, eh? Admittedly, you’re looking at “some assembly required”, but I suspect they’re EMP proof as all get out.” My comment: Yes, they’d be relatively EMP proof if they have no antenna attached. But once one is, then the microcircuits would surely be vulnerable.

Temporary and Permanent Obstacles for Retreat Security

At least two or three times a year, I have consulting clients ask me about anti-personnel and anti-vehicular obstacles.

In heavily-wooded country, dropping some trees to form an abatis (as shown in this illustration from US Army Field Manual FM 90-7) is a viable expedient. But keep in mind that obstacles often work both ways. they will keep the bad guys out, but also keep you in. That is why my favorite roadblock is a Caterpillar (“Cat”) or similar tracked tractor, parked perpendicular at a narrow spot on a road, with its blade dropped and ignition system disabled. That will stop just about any vehicle short of another Cat. The biggest advantage of this method is that a Cat can be moved quickly, to allow the passage of “friendlies.”

If you don’t own a Cat, then parking cars or trucks perpendicular at a narrow spot works fairly well. Remember: In most foreseeable circumstances, emplacing multiple obstacles of marginal utility is as good as emplacing just one massive obstacle. One fairly inexpensive technique is to emplace multiple 5/8″ diameter steel cables at 20 to 50 foot intervals strung 18inches above the ground, secured with heavy duty padlocks. To gain entry, even someone equipped with large bolt cutters would have to repeatedly reduce each obstacle. And during that time, they could be warned off or directly engaged with rifle fire.

As I’ve mentioned several times before in SurvivalBlog, an obstacle is only useful in defense if it is under observation from defenders, and can be fired upon by them. Otherwise, the obstacle can be quickly reduced or bypassed by attackers and rendered useless.

I’ve already discussed anti-personnel obstacles at some length in SurvivalBlog, including tanglefoot wire, razor wire, and concertina wire. I recommend that you store defensive wire, but that you delay emplacing it until the situation warrants it. In essence, you should wait for the time when your neighbors will no longer say, “Gee, what a nut case!”, and instead say: “Gee, I wish that I had thought of that!”

Letter Re: Ezekiel Mix–a Complete Survival Food

Jim and readers,

Many of you that have read the Bible remember Ezekiel in the Old Testament. Ezekiel 4:9 says “Take thou unto thee wheat, barley, beans, lentils, millet and fitches (spelt), and put them into one vessel and make thee bread thereof.”

This diet sustained Ezekiel in the desert for 390 days. A modern day interpretation of the Ezekiel recipe calls for the following: 20 parts wheat, 12 parts Spelt, 4 parts Hulled Barley, 2 parts Hulled Millet, 2 parts lentils, 2 parts Pinto Beans, 1 part Great Northern Beans, 1 part Kidney Beans.

Modern Food scientists have found that Ezekiel Bread is surprisingly complete in nutrients, containing all 8 essential Amino Acids. It only lacks the vitamin provided by sunlight that converts cholesterol in the skin into Vitamin D, which is then absorbed into the bloodstream.

Ezekiel Mix can be ground into flour to make Ezekiel Bread, used to make Soup, Stews or Porridge. Ezekiel Flour can also be added to other bread flour recipes to enhance nutrition.

You can make your own Ezekiel Mix, or do as we do. We purchase the mix from Walton Feed. They sell Ezekiel Mix in 25 pound bags, #10 cans with oxygen absorbers and Super Pails. (6 gallon air tight plastic food grade pail, containing the mix in a sealed mylar bag with oxygen absorbers.)

To grind the mix into flour you must use a grain mill. Because of the beans in the mix, you cannot use a stone mill because it will plug up the stones.

Ezekiel Bread Recipe (makes three loaves)

5-1/4 cups of Ezekiel Flour

or,

Grind in a Grain Mill:

2-1/2 cups of Wheat
1-1/2 cups of Spelt
1/2 cup of Barley
1/4 cup Millet
1/4 cup Lentils
2 Tablespoons Great Northern Beans
2 Tablespoons Kidney Beans
2 Tablespoons Pinto Beans

Measure into large bowl:

4 cups of warm water, (note if you have chlorine in your water it may kill the yeast and bread may not rise)
1 cup honey
1/2 cup of oil
2 Tablespoons of yeast

Mix and set aside for 5 minutes until frothy

Add 2 teaspoons of salt and all the flour

Mix with spoon until stretchy and elastic, about 7 minutes

Since this is a batter-type bread, you must use bread pans. Pour into 3 greased bread pans in even amounts.

Set oven to the lowest temperature and let rise 15-20 minutes. Level should be within 1/2 inch of the top of the bread pan. Do not let it rise any more or you will have a major gooey mess in your oven. Do not open oven or bread will fall from the cool air.

Turn oven heat up to 350 degrees and cook for 25 to 30 minutes. Enjoy!

When making stew, simmer for 8 to 10 hours on low heat or use a pressure cooker for 3 to 4 hours. You can also soak the mix overnight.

You may wish to consider storing extra Ezekiel Mix to hand out as charity as it is inexpensive and easily stored. – PED

Odds ‘n Sods:

I often get questions from folks looking for survival retreat property about the state tax rates (income tax, property (real estate) tax, sales tax, and so forth.) Here is a useful Internet reference at www.BankRate.com. State and local tax rates should be thoroughly researched before you choose a retreat locale.

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American home foreclosures leap 93% in a year

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The Credit Crunch contagion spreads yet further. We read this from England: Over 8.5 Million will be denied credit as level of debt soars. Can you spell recession?