Notes from JWR:

Hey! I just noticed that we’ve surpassed 4.5 million unique visits. Thanks for spreading the word about SurvivalBlog!

The high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $550. The auction for a mixed lot that includes: Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans, (donated by Ready Made Resources–a $320 value), a NukAlert radiation detector, (donated by KI4U–a $160 value), a Wilson Tactical COP tool, (donated by Choate Machine and Tool Company, a $140 value), a DVD of 480 E-books on Alternative Energy (donated by WK Books–a $25 value). The auction ends on Monday September 15, 2008. Please e-mail us your bid.



Letter Re: Should I Get a Bigger Property and a Bigger Mortgage?

JWR,
I currently live in a crowded subdivision in a moderately nice house that is worth $240,000. We owe approximately $120,000 on it, and have $120,000 in equity. Based on much of what I read here, we were looking for a house with some land, and recently found one for $370,000 (it’s only 2.5 acres, but that’s much more than we have now). If we buy it we will owe $370,000 -120,000 = $250,000). I currently make around $120,000 per year, in a job in the medical field that should not be too hard hit by financial crises.

So what do I do? Buy the country house and assume a larger mortgage (but have some space, and a water well, plenty of room for a garden, and less crowding)? Or do I forego that plan and just stay where I am, even though it’s crowded, because it’s cheaper, and I can get it paid off in 2-to-4 years?

The economy has me worried, so this decision has been a difficult one for me. Your site and its links makes a lot of sense to me, but when I read other things online (i.e. the main headlines) it all seems to say that “Everything will be okay, just give it time, you’re in good hands…” When can we expect the major crisis/crises to hit?
Praying for your wife, thanks for all you do, – Perplexed in the Midwest

JWR Replies: If your job is truly stable, then it might be safe making that move. Just by itself, having well water is a huge plus. (I’ve described numerous hand pump and solar well pump alternatives in the blog.) But with the economy presently looking the way it is, having that level of debt should be reason to give you pause.

One alternative to consider is instead of the “halfway measure” of moving to a house on a bigger lot–but still in a relatively high density area–is the concept of buying a dedicated retreat with a house on much more acreage (10+ acres) that is way out in the country, preferably in one of my recommended retreat regions. You could simply tell your family and friends that it is a “vacation cabin.”

My general advice to my consulting clients is to buy their retreat properties with cash, and leave their primary residences mortgaged. That way, if the economy totally tanks and you lose your job you can move to your retreat and essentially abandon your house to the bankers. (The phenomenon they now call “jingle mail”.) At your retreat you will then only have to worry about paying your property taxes.

In answer to your other question: I don’t give “timing” predictions. All that I can say with certainty is the the current economic instability is the worst that I’ve see in my lifetime. So just be ready.



Letter Re: Substantially Higher Food Prices at Warehouse Stores

Hi Jim,
Yesterday I made my monthly or thereabouts pilgrimage to Costco to buy bulk items for our pantry and other needs. I immediately noticed that prices had gone up on just about everything. The 40 pound bags of Kirkland brand dog food (re-labeled Iams brand) had gone up from $19.90 to $23.64 which is about a 16% increase in price. The 25 pound bags of Indian long grain rice went for $20.00 to $24.00 – a 20% increase and other items here and there had gone up a dollar or two or three.

While Costco continues to be a great value – when compared to other retail outlets – it too is getting hit with rising commodity prices. Mind you I think they do a standard 14% profit on stuff – meaning they negotiate a price then tack on 14% for operating costs and profit, their average markup is about 10% – that should tell you what’s going on.

Anyway, this Fall, if you trawl the Internet at all, is supposed to be a time of great upheaval – different folks have different pet theories about what may occur – mine is economic – this might be a good time to stock up for the winter – it’s harvest time anyway – might be good to remind folks to stock those pantries (while they still can).- Eric



Letter Re: Observations on Empty Store Shelves in Louisiana

Mr. Rawles,
I am an over the road truck driver and happen to be in Louisiana today. I have been to several stores in the southern part of the state and took note of what was in short supply. The shelves in the camping section were empty, they were out of water, generators, gas cans, coolers and frozen dinners. The frozen dinner thing I didn’t get, I figured they’d be short on canned or boxed food. Just stuff I noticed and thought I’d share. God Bless and I’ve been praying for your wife.- Vincent from Portland

JWR Replies: Part of the reason that the camping supplies were low is that September 1st has traditionally marked the end of the camping season. Many stores that have limited shelf space intentionally let these items run out, to make space available for seasonal items such as Halloween candy.

Your observation on frozen dinners was interesting. Human behavior can often be irrational. Part of this is based on ignorance and lack of common sense. In my estimation, the same people that eat frozen dinners on regular basis simply thought “emergency” and bought far more dinners than usual. They did this without thinking through the chain of events that are coincident with a major tropical storm, including power failures. The scary thing is that there are a lot of truly ignorant people out there that lack common sense. In my experience, the same ignorant irrationality displayed in times of emergency is an “equal opportunity” phenomenon–among people of all socioeconomic backgrounds.



Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader I.T.N. wrote me to ask: “I noticed that [the base metal value of] a nickel is [down to] now 4.9 cents. (due to a sharp decline in nickel as of late) Do you think this is temporary, or should I begin to spend the milk jugs full of nickels I acquired.” I expect that spot price of nickel will rebound in coming months, as the US Dollar resumes its decline. With more rapid inflation looking likely, I expect that a US five cent piece will have a base metal value of 10 cents (twice its face value) within two years. And in the long run, as I’ve predicted previously, nickels will begin to be worth 3X to 4X their face value. Once that happens, speculators will begin to acquire $100 (or larger) face value bags, as a speculative hedge against inflation. Hang on to those nickels! Someday you’ll be very glad that you did.

   o o o

Eric sent us a link with some more about making newspaper logs.

   o o o

The new Katadyn VARIO water filter has a unique design that allows it to be adjusted, depending on the input water quality. I recommend it. OBTW, SurvivalBlog readers will get free shipping on a VARIO filter if they call Ready Made Resources at: 1(800) 627-3809.

   o o o

Readers PNG, Niall, and Michael Z. Williamson all mentioned this new product development, perhaps as a starting point for designing a vehicular Get Out of Dodge kit: The Shelter Box. PNF notes: “Not available for retail sale, but an interesting point of comparison.”

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SurvivalBlog’s Economic Editor Cheryl N. sent us this gem: SF Wachovia Bank Under Siege By People Facing Foreclosure. File this under “A” for Audacity. OBTW, I think that the leftist ACORN group made an appropriate choice for the color of their t-shirts. True to form, Cheryl also sent us several pieces of news and commentary: US Deficit Nears $407 Billion, Government Takes Control of Fannie & Freddie, Bush: I Wouldn’t Call it a Bailout, World Stocks Soar on US Mortgage Bailout, Fannie/Freddie Bailout Offer Banks Stock Reprieve, Mexico Stocks Gain After US Bailout; Peso Slips, Taxpayer’s Might Make Money on Fannie/Freddie Grab, China Frets at US Risk After Fannie/Freddie Bailout, A $75 Trillion Fright Fest: 8 Megahorror Debts Chilling The US, Why the US Moved on Mortgage Giants, Best Financial Quotes of August 2008, Ten Worst Insurance Companies (PDF), GMAC May File For Bankruptcy as Early as Tomorrow, and, Treason at the US Treasury. This last piece includes this: “I will tell you openly, the rule of economic law has ended in the USA. Say what you will, the open seizure of Fannie and Freddie by the US government, without cause or recourse, and the destruction of private equity is the Rubicon. We shall not go back from this point. It is kaput.”



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“…we have the phenomenon called inflation which is the appearance of rising prices. I emphasis the word ‘appearance’ because in reality prices are not rising at all. What we’re seeing is that the value of the dollar is going down, that’s the real side of the equation. If we had real money based on gold or silver or anything tangible that couldn’t just be created out of thin air, it could be based on microphones, that they couldn’t just create with the stroke of a pen, you would see then that prices would remain stable over a long period of time.” – G. Edward Griffin, author of “The Creature from Jekyll Island



Notes from JWR:

The high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $550. The auction for a mixed lot that includes: Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans, (donated by Ready Made Resources–a $320 value), a NukAlert radiation detector, (donated by KI4U–a $160 value), a Wilson Tactical COP tool, (donated by Choate Machine and Tool Company, a $140 value), a DVD of 480 E-books on Alternative Energy (donated by WK Books–a $25 value). The auction ends on September 15, 2008. Please e-mail us your bid.

Today’s posts include an article cross-posted with permission from the new Everyday Prepper Blog. It is an interesting blog that is worth reading.



Letter Re: The EMP Threat May Be Worse Than We Had Thought

Mr Rawles,
Your readers may benefit from the following current links regarding the electromagnetic pulse (EMP) threat:

Full report of the EMP Commission to the House Armed Services Committee (July 10, 2008)

This link has a concise summary of key points from the above report:

I also recommend an interview with the Chairman of the EMP Commission.

The interview includes the following statements that are very important:

Asked just how many Americans would die if Iran were to launch the EMP attack it appears to be preparing, Graham gave a chilling reply: “You have to go back into the 1800s to look at the size of population’ that could survive in a nation deprived of mechanized agriculture, transportation, power, water, and communication.
“I’d have to say that 70 to 90 percent of the population would not be sustainable after this kind of attack,” he said. [Emphasis added.]

America would be reduced to a core of around 30 million people — about the number that existed in the decades after America’s independence from Great Britain.”

270 million deaths! That puts one EMP strike on a par with a full pre-emptive nuclear strike for the number of deaths inflicted. That’s why I took care of securing food and water before any other preparations. – ALG



Range Report: Advantage Arms .22 Conversion Kit for the Glock, by Everyday Prepper

To start off let me say I’m in no way affiliated Advantage Arms or Glock. I don’t get paid to advertise or test their products and I definitely don’t get paid to write reviews.

I took the Glock out today with the Advantage Arms conversion kit installed. I wasn’t exactly skeptical of the kit after reading about it online but I was expecting to have some sort of break in period. I opened the kit up and out fell an orange piece of paper that instructed me to put some oil on the parts in the picture. I grabbed the oil they shipped with the kit, put the drops on the slide where they wanted me to and rubbed the oil with my finger to spread it around some.

I took a piece of standard 8.5″x11″ sheet of printer paper and hung it up. Next I paced off 10 meters and turned to fire. The magazine seated perfectly just like my original Glock magazines. I chambered the first round took aim and pulled the trigger. Bang! Nice, I thought. There was almost no recoil and the gun hit pretty close to where I was aiming. I went ahead and fired a few more at a slow and controlled speed then I just let the last six or so speed their way to the target as fast as I could reasonably regain my sight picture. At the end of those 10, I went up to the piece of paper and measured the spread of hits and they all fell within a three inch circle, save one. (Though I think that one was me getting a little trigger happy.)

I finished the day by placing 10 to 20 targets out and running training drills to help with quicker target acquisition and movement. I fired in the neighborhood of 120 rounds (give or take five rounds) and never had a jam or malfunction of any kind.

It wasn’t an intense break-in but I was impressed at the quality, feel and accuracy of the kit.

If Advantage Arms wouldn’t have stamped their name on the slide you wouldn’t even know it was a company other than Glock that created the kit. With the market for these kits (I waited eight weeks while they caught up on back orders) I’m surprised Glock hasn’t jumped on this boat and started creating their own.

I’m not a professional instructor but I think the advantages to this kit are obvious. While I’m not shooting my standard caliber with its standard recoil I’m getting much more training time in and it’s much cheaper. I can practice every drill and training exercise I know for five times as long thanks to the cost savings. If you are worried about the recoil and muscle memory issues you can always finish your shooting day with your original caliber by removing the kit (as simple as field stripping the Glock) and putting your original hardware back in place.- Everyday Prepper

JWR Adds: Advantage Arms also makes .22 LR conversion kits for Model 1911 pistols, with an equally good reputation. Both of these conversion kits are available via mail order to US customers with no FFL paperwork, since they do not include a pistol frame.

Everyday Prepper.



Five Letters Re: Welding Oxygen Versus Medical Oxygen

James:
Just a quick note, never ever use oxygen under pressure near oil! Never use oil on the thread’s or fittings! The high pressure will cause the oil to detonate,similar to a diesel ignition! If you must,and probably should never need to, use a teflon tape seal!And if you have an acetylene bottle, let it stand for 24 hours as it may have been laid on it’s side before using it, separating the acetone from the gas. – Dean

 

Jim
The letter in response to welding oxygen versus medical oxygen was interesting. Unfortunately [that readers} was wrong on one point. Oil is never used around oxygen, period. Quoting from a Compressed Gas Association safety alert “Liquid oxygen containers must be properly cleaned for oxygen service and must be kept clean and free of grease, oil, or other hydrocarbon materials, which can combine with oxygen with explosive violence.”

The other danger is that the manufacturer does not know what the end use of the gas will be. If they allow any impurities in it, they could be liable for contaminating an end product of causing a substandard weld. I can assure you that virtually all oxygen is safe for human use. – Docliberty

 

Jim:
If you go to a local oxygen supplier and ask, (and they are being honest) they will tell you that they fill the welding oxygen, the aviators oxygen and the medical grade oxygen tanks from the exact same bulk tank, which is to say, they are all medical grade.
The previous e-mail is correct in that it is important to know that if you are using a compressor for breathable air, it should be medical grade, preferably an oil-less compressor.
His/her reasoning is correct but in the oxygen industry, no one I know makes their own oxygen with compressors on premises any more. Rather, they buy in bulk from dealers (You can make oxygen yourself with an oxygen concentrator but then you are back to needing electricity.) and the dealers only make one grade: medical grade.

The difference is not in the quality of the oxygen but the chain of custody of the tanks. If you bring an oxygen tank in to get refilled, they will give you another refilled oxygen tank of the same category (i.e. welding, aviators or medical) that you gave them but not likely the exact one you brought in. Here’s the issue: If a welding tank is used, you don’t know where it’s been and if it has been left open, contaminants may have gotten in at some work site that used it previously.

If you want to save money or avoid a prescription and use welding oxygen (which I have personally done) then here’s the solution: Buy a new welding tank and spray paint your name on it. When you get it filled/refilled, demand your personal tank back. Now you have chain of custody. The oxygen will be medical grade and since you started with a clean tank there will be no contaminants. Make sure that you don’t tell the refill station why you really want it or they may not refill it for you. If they ask, have your cover story, like welding…

Also, you will want a regulator that has a range of about 5 to 15 liters per minute. The oxygen that comes out will need to be controlled so you don’t waste it. Get one that has both liter-per-minute (LPM) and pressure gauges so you know both how fast you are using it and how much you have left. For medical applications, you don’t need 100% oxygen unless you are dealing with something like smoke inhalation or carbon monoxide poisoning. Raising the inhaled oxygen content from 21% (normal) to say, 50% will be a boon for your injured mates and make your limited supply of this valuable resource last longer. I would use oxygen with lung injuries or loss of blood, but this is a topic better answered by others.

You will also need to get/make an adaptor with the appropriate male nipple size to fit on the end of the regulator that will attach to the female end of the plastic hose that goes to the mask you will be using.

Welding regulators are not set up to go directly to a mask and medical grade oxygen regulators (which will go right to a mask hose) will not fit on a welding tank (by design to thwart this very thing).
Masks are inexpensive, but medical supply houses can be sticklers for requiring a prescription for them. Online purchases rarely require them. You will want what is called a rebreather mask. They look the the ones you see fall from the airplane ceilings in movies.

If you want to give 100% oxygen and not waste any, look at the rebreather bag attached to the mask. Decrease the LPM of oxygen until you see it deflate with each inhalation but not all the way. If it stays fully inflated at all times you are wasting O2, if it goes empty/flat on inhalations, you are dropping below 100% oxygen and forcing the patient to pull in extra air from outside the mask which not only decreases the oxygen level but may be difficult for the injured. If you want to go below 100% oxygen, then make sure that the mask has valves or ports on it to allow air to be breathed in from outside or loosen the mask a bit so air can get in from the sides. Test this by making a tight seal with the mask on your face, plug up the hose and breath in. If you can do this without effort, you’re set up is good. Don’t go with nasal cannulas as they waste 50% of the oxygen and you’re not likely to get a refill anytime soon.SF in Hawaii

 

Sir:
Despite the dire warnings, there is no difference in oxygen purity or suitability for breathing among the four “grades.”

From a major supplier’s web site:

‘There are four kinds of oxygen that are merchandised or sold to users; Aviation, Medical, Welding and Research. There is a ongoing controversy if there is any difference between the different types. Oxygen gas is produced from the boiling off of liquid oxygen. It would appear that the oxygen is therefore the same. Where we obtain oxygen, all the different types of oxygen are supplied from the same manifold system. Then someone says that medical oxygen has more moisture in it. That is partly true. The oxygen going to a hospital bed is plain oxygen that comes from liquid oxygen. At the bed location, there is a unit on the wall that adds moisture. At this moment we now have medical oxygen. If the oxygen is in a pressure vessel or in a manifold system (like inside a hospital) then it is regular oxygen. The cost of medical or welding oxygen is normally much less than the oxygen you get at an airport.
”Also of interest, we have been told by the suppliers of welding oxygen, the purity level required for welding and cutting purposes is more critical than for breathing.
”The bottom line about the different types of oxygen is in the insurance liability of the oxygen supplier. The gas is the same but the insurance liability is different.”

All oxygen is generated from oil-free compressors/liquefiers because any oil (of whatever nature) is highly flammable in 100% oxygen

The bottom line is safety – oxygen makes things burn, even people. Safe use requires scrupulous attention to cleanliness and detail. Don’t do it if you don’t know if it is safe or not. – JB, MD

 

James,
I sent in a letter about using aviation or welding oxygen instead of medical oxygen and another reader replied, objecting that compressor oil could compromise the safety of the oxygen. I don’t want to get into a tit-for-tat over the subject, but I think it’s important to address the reader’s concerns because the lack of a prescription may keep people from obtaining oxygen that could later save a life.

Unlike SCUBA air, oxygen is not pumped with a compressor at the point of bottle filling. It is dispensed from a large tank that has been provided by a supplier like Air Products or Praxair. Oil, whether petroleum based or vegetable based, is not present in the compressed oxygen. Oil and grease can burn spontaneously when exposed to pure oxygen – especially under pressure – so the suppliers take care to remove such impurities before bottling.

When I said that medical, aviation and welding oxygen are all clean, pure and dry, I meant exactly that. They come from the same source! ABO, medical and welding oxygen are all U.S.P. grade oxygen and all are safe to breathe. The only differences among them are that ABO has had an additional drying step to prevent ice formation at altitude and there are slight differences in filling methods (evacuate first or not) and paperwork, all inconsequential when we’re talking about supplemental oxygen delivered through a mask or cannula.

Private pilots have been using welding oxygen for years with no ill effects. If welding oxygen somehow scares you then by all means, buy ABO: We know that’s safe to breathe. My main point was that there is a no-prescription option available.

I just Googled a good resource. This guy is an expert on the subject and perhaps his paper will clarify things and end further debate on this subject. – Matt S.



Letter Re: Firearms Battery Recommendations

Jim,
In reference to the post on September 9th concerning the Mossberg Riotgun–as far as I know the only Mossberg available with the steel safety switch (as well as steel receiver, steel trigger guard, bayonet lug and heavier/thick walled barrel) is the Mossberg 590A1. For a few dollars more it is, IMHO a better choice. They can still be had for around $500–steel trigger assemblies et cetera are available for upgrading the plastic parts but they are pricey, and the trigger assembly has to be shipped to an FFL. Once [all of this is] done it may in fact be more expensive than simply buying the Model 590A1. Best Regards, – Jason in North Idaho



Odds ‘n Sods:

Universal flu vaccine tests start in the UK

   o o o

We can now chalk up another $200 Billion in the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB). It’s now official: U.S. Seizes Fannie and Freddie. This confirms my suspicion that there is no such thing as “too big to bail out”, but the dictum of “too big to fail” is in full force. I predict that these bailouts will continue in both the public and private sectors, in a “widening gyre.” The bailouts won’t end until the US dollar is destroyed as a currency unit. Get out of any dollar-denominated investments, as soon as possible.

   o o o

Kevin A. sent us a link that illustrates the pernicious effects of inflation: The 99 Cents Only store chain gets ready to break dollar barrier. Of course I can remember the late 1960s when the Motel 6 chain raised their rates above $6 per night for a single room. Few folks now remember what the “6” in Motel 6 stood for. But even though that happened when I was a child, that dates me. As I’ve written before:Currency inflation is little more than robbery in slow motion. You are being robbed of your buying power. Sadly, because inflation is so gradual in the First World countries that few people raise much of a fuss.

   o o o

Ken McC. sent us an article about Veggie Garden Thefts in England.

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I spotted an article linked over at the Coinflation site that made me chuckle: Razor wire stolen by metal thieves



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“The game of chicken that foreigners have been playing with their $[US Dollar] reserves will come to an end. Someone will flinch. The world’s banking system primarily uses Dollars for its reserves. The other currencies used as reserves, Yen, Pounds, Euros, etc. also use Dollars as reserves. Countries are using each other as reserves in a never ending circle of falsely created values. Think of it this way, it is like two people trying to hold each other up off the ground at the same time without either touching the ground. There is no backing or foundation to any currency nor to any banking system worldwide. The last semblance of support was knocked out from under the system back in August, 1971 when Nixon closed the Gold window. Who will be first to sell Dollars? Who will be next? Who will be the first to flinch in this game of chicken? I have no idea, but when the $[US Dollar] selling starts it will snowball. It will probably destroy the entire worldwide banking in less than two weeks time once it begins. Markets will close for unspecified amounts of time, distribution, trade, travel, will all cease for unspecified amounts of time. Foodstocks will be wiped out in a week or less. This will change the world as we know it.” – Bill Holter, Fannie and Freddie in the Lap of the U.S. Treasury



Note from JWR:

The U.S. economy is showing clear signs of disintegration, as the global credit collapse continues to take its toll. The once bountiful Lake of Liquidity has dried up to now resemble the Owens Valley. Corporations are screaming for cash, banks are failing, the real estate market is in freefall, and hedge funds are desperately clinging to the edge of the abyss. The proposed “solution”–The Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB)– keeps growing, with no end in sight. It is actually part of the problem rather than the solution. If you haven’t done so already, prepare yourself for a long term layoff, loss of equity in your home, and and possible relocation under duress. A major depression now looks very likely.



Letter Re: The Approach of Tropical Storm Hanna Was a Wake-Up Call

Sir,
I used to think of myself as “Mr. Preparedness.” I read the blogs and often went shopping for preparedness supplies. Then tropical storm Hanna came to the Carolina coast and I realized just how ill prepared I really was.

I didn’t even have my medicines in order. Also, I had no reserve of cash in small bills ready to go. Nothing was packed. It took some time to get all my things together. Had this been a real emergency, I would have been in trouble.

Sir, you mentioned in a previous blog the importance of having that bag already packed, by the door, and ready to carry to the car. I am now taking this instruction literally. I spent most of Saturday repacking. Where I focused most of my attention on was my medicines and toiletries. During evacuations I volunteer for a non-profit where they provide cooked food, have plenty of water, and have a reliable generator for the whole building. They even and a shower. I now have packed clothes for three days including a towel and shower shoes, a spare of all of my toiletries, spare medicines for a week, and what will soon be a hundred dollars in cash in small bills, all in two lightweight, easy to carry bags.

Another thing I am going to start doing is fueling up the car to “full” a little more often. And any other steps to shorten the time before I get “the call” and I am move out.
Hopefully with these preps I will be better ready the next time a disaster happens. Thanks – Wes