Two Letters Re: Retreat Group Recruiting and Organization

James,
Some tips when looking for like-minded suitable people for a survivalist group:

At work look for people who carry a pocket knife–a real pocket knife not a tiny little Swiss Army knife– in these politically correct times it’s one of the first thing that sticks out in an office environment
When sharing a ride to lunch you may notice some people always have some hiking/camping gear always in their cars. Having a spare pair of shoes such as hiking boots at work.
Observe if anyone goes for a walk at lunch or any other indication that they are staying fit/prepared.
Pay attention to what people say if someone mentions politics, someone may be very obviously trying very hard to hold back when someone spews utter nonsense.
See if anyone ever mentions hiking, camping, or hunting during conversation.
Most of us spend a significant amount of time in the office. By finding a coworker you will have an added advantage if you need to bug out from work. Even 2 people traveling together to a common destination and following a well rehearsed procedure will increase your chances of survival and getting out of immediate danger area in the
first few hours.
Try joining a college or local marksmanship/gun club.
Join a hiking/camping club or group.
There will be quite an overlap between these groups and those are individuals that may be a good starting point.
People in either of the groups are already showing some interest in some of the skills, have at least some of the necessary gear and training required.
Pay attention to Boy Scouts stickers on cars, NRA stickers, political affiliation stickers.
Someone who was previously in the Boy Scouts or emergency preparedness organization such as Civil Air Patrol or local Department of Emergency Management often has the proper values, training and willingness to continue training .

Your local neighbors should not be overlooked. You are living in close proximity and can often tell when someone brings back lots of #10 cans from COSTCO or is dragging big green boxes of bulk ammo from Cabela’s or trying to quickly toss in several rifle cases in the trunk without alarming neighbors.
You are also in a pretty good position to observe how often or if your neighbors go camping, if they seem to have a spare rugged SUV always loaded up for the next camping trip etc.
Seeing what kind of signs pop up on the neighbor’s lawn during the voting season can also be very telling.

Always use your brain and really pay attention, you may be surprised by what you’ll notice about people you haven’t given a second thought of before.
Good groups aren’t recruited in my experience, they just from from several people/several couples who end up going hiking, camping, shooting together and have similar political and moral beliefs. Talk of survival retreats sort of comes up on its own without being forced. – Steven

 

Mr. Rawles:
After our last Ron Paul Meetup, I was circulating and greeting folks. Out of “the corner of my ear” I heard the words, “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse.” I spun around and there were two women talking about your novel and our present economic condition.
As a shameless plug for my candidate, the Ron Paul Meetups in readers’ areas might be a way to network with some like-minded folks.
Godspeed, – Brian in Wisconsin



Letter Re: “Life After People” Documentary Series

Jim,
You noted that several SurvivalBlog readers had mentioned the “Life After People” documentary series, in advance of its first airing. I just saw it. What a waste of time. This show provided nothing of any use to anyone. It seems as if it was an excuse to give the computer graphics specialists something to do while the screen writers are on strike. I believe this show was primarily a vehicle to promote the idea that humans are destroying the planet. It kept stating how better off the planet, animal life, the oceans and their wildlife were now that man was gone. Most of the ‘experts’ seemed gleeful at the prospect. A strong argument for mother earth and for population reduction, though on an extreme scale. Another big ‘What if’ movie. They kept showing how things like buildings, bridges, cars, film, CDs et cetera deteriorate when man is not their to keep things up. Useless information considering their would be no reason to worry if we’re all dead! – Jason in North Idaho



Odds ‘n Sods:

I got the chance to watch the first three episodes of “Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles”. I found the show was worth watching. There are no great earth-shattering revelations about preparedness, but it sure beats the mindless drivel usually found on network television. For those of us without televisions, full episodes are available at the Fox network web site.

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In a recent e-mail, Naish Piazza of Front Sight sent a link to key web site to bookmark: Family WatchDog.The site provides Google maps showing where registered sex offenders live in proximity to your home.

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A reader forwarded this sobering page that details one man’s experience with his negligent discharge from a .45 ACP pistol. Ouch! Keep the four laws of firearms safety in mind whenever you handle guns.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“It has never been clear to me why increased magazine capacity in a defensive pistol is particularly choice. The bigger the magazine the bigger the gun, and the bigger the gun the harder it is to get hold of for people with small hands. And what, pray, does one need all those rounds for? How many lethal antagonists do you think you are going to be able to handle? Once when Bruce Nelson was asked by a suspect if the thirteen-round magazine in the P35 [Browning Hi-Power] was not a big advantage, Bruce’s answer was, “Well, yes, if you plan to miss a lot.” The highest score I know of at this time achieved by one man against a group of armed adversaries was recorded in (of all places) the Ivory Coast! There, some years ago, a graduate student of mine laid out five goblins, with four dead and one totaled for the hospital. Of course there is the episode of Alvin York and his eight, but there is some dispute about that tale. (If you read it over very carefully you will see what I mean.) Be that as it may, I see no real need for a double column magazine. It is all the rage, of course, and like dual air bags, it is a popular current sales gimmick.” – The Late Col. Jeff Cooper



Letter Re: Does Future Inflation Justify a Higher Level of Indebtedness?

Sir,
In reading the recent economic commentary on your blog site I have to wonder – if one is convinced that we’re to see a significant increase in inflation, then why get out of debt? Take a mortgage for instance: with decent credit it is now possible to refinance (or purchase) and get a fixed rate mortgage under 5% and rates will likely go lower before we’re done. With tax breaks and even normal inflation this is essentially free money. In an inflationary environment (which I don’t argue we’re in) it would make sense to keep this debt and instead use your cash to purchase things that will increase or at least hold their value. You’ll later be able to pay that mortgage down with cheaper dollars or not at all if TEOTWAWKI actually occurs. Obviously nobody should be carrying credit card debt and getting out of variable rate mortgages would be a good idea but debt in and of itself isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
Obviously I don’t know what direction the markets will go, nobody does (or at least they aren’t telling). But I do feel quite safe sitting on cash and nibbling on stocks as they come down in price. One always must consider the horrible possibility that the world as we know it will not end.) Regards, – Steve G.

JWR Replies: I cannot in good conscience recommend that anyone go into debt, stay in debt, or go deeper in debt if they can avoid it. The nascent economic recession will bring with it some huge layoffs–all the way from multinational corporations down to your local “Mom and Pop” stores. In an age of layoffs, debt will not be your friend. Even if you have debts that are being serviced with increasingly cheaper dollars you will still need an income to pay your debts! If you lose your job, you could then lose your car, and then your house. Keep in mind that although mass inflation at the consumer level seems very likely, it is not a certainty. Albeit much less likely, we could see price and wage deflation–something like the situation in the 1930s. In such deflationary times, all forms of debt would be absolutely dreaded.



Letter Re: How Much Ammunition to Store?

Mr. Rawles:
My wife and I enjoy your web site immensely. I do have one question for you. I know we are targeting how much food/water supply we need for long-term survive but how much ammo do you think the average family should strive to purchase/store? Thanks, – David K.

JWR Replies:
It is important to maintain balance in your preparations. Food storage, first aid supplies, and heirloom seed storage should be priorities. But after those have been taken acre of, it makes sense to stock up on ammunition. As long as you store your ammo in sealed military surplus cans, there is no risk in over-estimating your needs, since ammunition has a 50+ year storage life if protected from oil vapors and humidity. Consider any extra ammo the ideal barter item. The late Col. Jeff Cooper rightly called it “ballistic wampum.”

For your barter inventory, I recommend that you stick to the most common calibers: For rifles: .22 Long Rifle, .223, .308, .30-06 (and in the British Commonwealth, .303 British.) For handguns: 9mm, .40 S&W, and .45 ACP. For shotguns, 12 gauge and 20 gauge. As I’ve previously mentioned, you might also buy a small quantity of the “regional favorite” deer cartridge for your area, as well as your local police or sheriff’s department standard calibers. (Ask at you local gun shop.)

I consider the following figures minimums:
2,000 per battle rifle
500 per hunting rifle
800 per primary handgun
2,000 per .22 rimfire
500 per riotgun

If you can afford it, three times those figures would meet the “comfort level” of most survivalists. In an age of inflation, consider that supply better than money in the bank.

Ammo prices have recently been galloping, so do some comparison pricing before you buy. Bring photocopies and “print screen” print-outs with you when you shop, as bargaining tools. Typically, the larger gun shows each have several large ammunition vendors.

Some Internet ammunition vendors that I recommend are: AIM Surplus, Cheaper Than Dirt, Dan’s Ammo, J&G Sales, Midway, AmmoMan.com, Natchez Shooter Supply, and The Sportsman’s Guide. Both to save money and to maximize your privacy–since umpteen heavy crates being unloaded from the back of a UPS truck is pretty obvious–I recommend that you be willing to drive a distance take delivery in person from a regional vendor. Ammo is best bought by the 3/4 ton pickup load! Also, keep in mind that by buying in large quantities all at once from a big vendor, you will typically get ammo for each caliber all from the same lots, which will result in more consistent accuracy.



Weekly Survival Real Estate Market Update

Winter Home Inspections
Although winter time retreat shopping can afford many positives like reduced prices and motivated sellers, there can also be a few downsides as well. While purchasing your retreat during the winter, especially when there is a considerable amount of snow on the ground, extra care must be taken during your inspection period. Many surprises may await you when the spring thaw arrives. Among them may be hidden trash and slash piles that will have to burned or removed, road grading and repair work, downed frost free spigots, fencing repairs, vegetation removal and major grounds keeping issues that are hidden under the snow. That nice rock flowerbed may be a heap when the snow melts due to falling ice/snow off the roof. Also, varmints and pest infiltration can be a major issue especially in unoccupied dwellings. On a side note a recent home inspection report here stated “The woodpeckers appear to have mounted an attack on the front porch eve”. Funny? Absolutely! But not to the new owner. Beware of unoccupied dwellings for sale, especially in the winter. Snow hides many maintenance items that may need to be addressed and could be quite costly. Asking the seller to plow the driveway may be one thing but asking them to remove the snow load all the way around the house and each out building so the inspector can complete a thorough inspection may be an issue, especially with upwards of three solid frozen feet of snow on the ground here in the mid-range elevations of northern Idaho. This cost may range upwards of over a thousand dollars and sellers who have had their property overpriced and on the market for a while will not be motivated to incur such costs unless you release some earnest money to pay for it, and the fee reimbursed should you actually purchase the property. Why? Who knows, it makes no sense to me, but some sellers are very stubborn, to their own detriment.

Here is a list of items to make sure are working and not damaged during a winter time purchase: Well and well pump(s), all water lines (have they burst?), septic lines and tank, any generators and off grid solar components (have the batteries been neglected or are they due for replacement or upgrade?), wood decking (has the snow cracked or otherwise damaged the decks/railings/steps), wood stoves and piping/flues (creosote build-up or other deferred maintenance like loose flashing at the roof seal?), roofing (has the snow load loosened or ripped off any shingles?)–a good reason to have metal roof (for fire protection as well), any appearance of water intrusion into the basement or crawl space in winter is really going to be an issue in the spring. It is recommended that the buyer be present at the home inspection and normally a good inspector will let the buyer follow them around the home for most of the inspection. Most inspectors will be happy to let you tag along, as you’re paying them and they will explain certain details of demerit or merit, as you go.

If the retreat you’re buying has been on the market for a while, then your agent should have visited the property during the summer/fall months and therefore should be aware of any issues regarding road, vegetation, downed timber, and landscaping issues that wouldn’t be obvious under snow cover. This is one more reason to seek out a qualified retreat real estate agent in your desired locale.

Survival Supplies Storage
Once you have closed escrow, the work begins at your new retreat. As I have stated before several times, before TEOTWAWKI the threat of fire will be either first or second on the list of major threats, next to theft. Speaking with a client this morning I was very specific that they should store their supplies ‘assuming’ that the retreat was going to burn down. Yes, having just spent a bunch of money on a retreat one may feel a bit annoyed, but storing expensive supplies under the house or hidden in walled over closets and crawl spaces is at best mediocre and dangerous at worst. If there is not a full concrete built basement under the house where a bunker can be walled off to survive a fire and water damage then an alternatively located underground bunker must be built, period. It would be better to put a bit less cash down on the property and save $15,000 for building a self contained storage bunker than to lose it all during fire season, or worse yet from a small propane heater malfunction– the heater that must be left on during the winter in order to keep your water pipes from freezing while the place is not attended. Not living at your retreat full time has its issues, none of which cannot be overcome with a little forethought.

A simple excavated 12’x12′ (finished size) underground concrete room–typically insulated concrete form (ICF) block–with proper drainage on the sides/underneath and a small CONEX container placed on top would probably be enough for anyone’s basic storage of supplies. (Clothes, storage food, medical supplies, tents, sleeping supplies, guns, and ammo). These supplies would be needed to survive if you were to find the main retreat structure just a smoking hole, upon arrival. Note that the CONEX should have a secured internal vertical entrance door leading to the shelter. [JWR Adds: in addition to a stout lock and equally stout hasp, the trapdoor should be concealed beneath something that doesn’t look worth stealing, such as burlap sacks full of rags, prominently marked “Extra shop rags”.] The rest of the less essential and less valuable supplies can be hidden in the retreat itself, but always have a reserve in place. Owning a retreat is a blessing, and very few have the opportunity. Just be diligent about your supplies, since storage consideration are as important as the retreat itself.

If you have any questions about retreat real estate in northern or north central Idaho, then please contact Todd Savage via e-mail at: toddsavage@meadowcrk.com



Odds ‘n Sods:

Loyal content contributor RBS sent us this “must bookmark” link: The Librums’s PDF Collection. It is veritable gold mine of mostly out-of-print books on practical skills.They are primarily late 19th Century, but there are also a few modern titles like the “US Army Special Forces Medical Handbook”, “Where There is No Dentist”, and “Where There is No Doctor.” They have lots of free gardening books, formularies, recipe books, and so forth. The usual provisos on 19th Century book reprints apply: Most notably, safety standards in those days were not quite the same as today’s, so be careful around harmful or explosive vapors, unshielded blades, and so forth.

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Eric flagged this one: Steve Forbes Says U.S. Dollar Policy Amounts to `Zimbabwe Economics’

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Charley S. mentioned that the Fedco Seed Co-op, based in Maine (but with growers all over the country) is by far the best value in heirloom seeds. Charley says: “You get, on average, twice as much seed for your money (and I’ve compared them, variety by variety, with all the best-known companies. They also have the most extensive, information-packed, and well-written catalog.”





More Angst on Wall Street

The recent overseas stock sell-off inspired the White House and congress to start talking about manna from heaven, in the form of tax rebate checks. The same day, the Federal Reserve announced what can only be seen as a desperation measure–a one-day .75% interest rate cut on two key rates–has done little to reassure the traders on Wall Street. The market is starting to make some wild daily swings, mostly downward. This piece from The New York Times sums up the big picture nicely: Worries That the Good Times Were Mostly a Mirage. Meanwhile, we read: Plenty to chew on for great minds of Davos. All the signs point to a big, deep, recession. Even Herculean amounts of liquidity pumping and “helicopter dropping” won’t stop this one.

The core of the financial problem is that bankers won’t make loans when they cannot properly evaluate risk. As I’ve noted before, the credit collapse was triggered by the subprime mortgage debacle, and the contagion spread to all sectors of the banking world. There are so many loans that are wrapped up in so many “repackaged” aggregations and “investment vehicles” that nobody really knows who owns what debts, and exactly by what underlying assets they are backed. The CDO and SIV pundits use the term “marked to market.” But I have coined the term marked to mystery. That is a better description of what is going on. The global credit market is now like a giant mushroom farm–where everyone is kept in the dark and fed horse manure. There are mountains of mystery debts held by countless corporations, governments, and institutions. In this unprecedented credit environment, ultra-low interest rates will not revive the sagging economy. The bankers are still petrified, and who can blame them? We recently learned that even the credit ratings agencies were in on the sub-prime swindle. So the bankers can longer trust the word of the “expert analysts” at Moody’s and S&P.

No doubt the President’s Working Committee on Markets (commonly called the Plunge Protection Team) will be working late and ordering pizza delivery. It think that Ben Bernanke & Company will need bigger helicopters, and more of them. This is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. Be prepared for a deep recession with layoffs, tax-funded bailout shenanigans, “incentive” programs, stagflation, huge write-offs of derivatives losses, failed municipal bond funds, the whole works. The big question is: will over the counter derivatives trading carry on as before, without too much disruption? If the answer is no–if there is a derivatives meltdown, then all bets are off. We are talking about possibly hundreds of trillions of dollars in derivatives in play at any given time. A full scale derivatives meltdown would probably trigger a global depression that could last decades, and topple national governments. I’m dead serious about this.

For those of you that took my advice and bought silver and gold, congratulations. You will at least have your capital protected, and might even profit handsomely. Lower interest rates mean a weaker dollar, and that means higher precious metals prices. Jean-Claude Trichet, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB) has said that there is little chance of a European interest rate cut, to follow the Fed’s suit. So keep watching the US Dollar Index in the months to come. Any further interest rate cuts by the Fed will probably result in a huge devaluation of the dollar.



A Honeybee CCD Disaster Soon?–Bee Prepared!

In the past three days, more than a dozen SurvivalBlog readers e-mailed this article link from The Telegraph: Honeybees may be wiped out in 10 years. I can not overstate that this is very alarming news. If the honeybee hive losses are universal in the “breadbasket” regions in the middle latitudes around the world, it would be cataclysmic for agriculture. The loss of honeybees for pollination because of CCD and/or successive waves of disease could very well cause a global famine that might result in a 20%+ die-off of global population and veritable TEOTWAWKI.

Even if there is just an outside chance of a honeybee die-off, it is prudent to redouble your preparedness efforts:

Food storage. Increase the depth of your family’s food storage program. Heretofore, I had recommended a two year supply. I am now recommending a four year supply.

Seed gathering and storage. Gardening without the help of bees will make seed saving all the more important. Keeping a four year supply of non-hybrid (open pollinated or “heirloom”) seeds is now appropriate. Without bees, the chances of a “zero yield” year of seed gathering for any particular variety goes up considerably. Having extra seed will be crucial for charity and barter–to supply your friends and neighbors.

Greenhouses. Increase your area “under glass.” If you live in snow country, then buy a greenhouse that can take a snow load, like a Turtle Tuff geodesic dome greenhouse. Two other advantages of these greenhouses are that 1.) they can be disassembled in a few hours and put in storage seasonally, and 2.) they can also easily be taken with you if you need to relocate your retreat.

Hand pollinating. Practice the art of hand pollinating. Every fruit and vegetable we eat cannot be produced by a plant without a flower being pollinated. Plantsmen have been hand pollinating for more than 100 years to breed new varieties. This involves mimicking bees by carrying pollen from one flower to another–typically with a feather, Q-Tip or a small paintbrush. This is very labor intensive. It might be prudent to start thinking along the lines of which plants produce the most food per pollination. For example pollinating apple blossoms would yield more calories per pollination than a cherry blossom. And beefsteak tomatoes would yield more per pollination than a cherry tomatoes. In a world without bees, think of terms of dwarf or semi-dwarf variety fruit trees, to make hand pollinating easier. (It is not realistic to expect to be able to hand pollinate 25 feet up a ladder.)

In closing, think through the full implications of a honeybee die off. Fruit might only be readily available in Third World countries, where there is a large pool of cheap labor for hand pollination. First World countries with a lack of agricultural day laborers might suffer. Will hundreds of thousands of Mexican farm workers be allowed into California, Florida, and Texas for hand pollination work each spring? What will be the secondary and tertiary effects of a honeybee die-off? Plan accordingly.



Odds ‘n Sods:

Eric S. sent this piece from Canada: All signs point to U.S. consumers hunkering down in recession bunkers

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Reader Dale L. mentioned that Cheaper Than Dirt now sells battery-powered surplus German field telephones (minus commo wire) for $48 per pair. Cheaper Than Dirt is not one of our advertisers, but I recommend them. Anyone looking for original USGI surplus TA-1 field telephones that don’t require batteries should contact Ready Made Resources. A good source for military surplus WD-1 commo wire is Fair Radio Sales. (Also not one of our advertisers, but recommended.)

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Bruce C. sent us this: Plague a growing but overlooked threat



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"When the federal government spends more each year than it collects in tax revenues, it has three choices: It can raise taxes, print money, or borrow money. While these actions may benefit politicians, all three options are bad for average Americans. " – Congressman Ron Paul



Note from JWR:

The high bid in the current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction lot is now at $220. The auction is for a Brunton Solarport 4.4 watt photovoltaic panel (a $140 retail value), a Deluxe Outdoor Survival Tool Kit (a $70 retail value)–both kindly donated by Ready Made Resources–as well as seven other items: A copy of the latest edition of “The Encyclopedia of Country Living” by the late Carla Emery (a $32 retail value), an autographed copy of my novel “Patriots” (a $23 retail value), an autographed copy of my nonfiction book “Rawles on Retreats and Relocation” (a $25 retail value), a SurvivalBlog Key Logistics Tote Bag (a $17.50 retail value), and an autographed set of Michael Z. Williamson’s “Target: Terror” modern military fiction sniper trilogy, from Avon books: The Scope of Justice, Targets of Opportunity, and Confirmed Kill. This auction ends on February 15th. Please e-mail us your bids, in $10 increments.



Letter Re: Retreat Group Recruiting and Organization

Mr. Rawles,
One subject that seems vastly under-represented in the bulk of survivalist literature is that of organizing and recruiting.
It’s fairly obvious that in a real WTSHTF scenario, a lone wolf, or small family would be in a precarious position regardless of how well armed and well prepared they may be. A group of three or four would be hard pressed to maintain any real degree of security while going about the [gardening and other self-sufficiency] work required for basic survival.

In my experience, it’s hard enough finding someone that’s even “like minded”, let alone skilled or intelligent. There’s also a tremendous element of trust involved in attempting to organize. Approaching someone to join your survival group is a fairly risky proposition, because you’ve basically advertised the fact that you’re preparing for a worst case scenario to that person, and whomever they decide to tell. There’s a further degree of trust necessary for making mutual purchases, storing equipment at a centralized location. etc. etc. I’m sure you can think of the hundred different concerns that come into play when it comes to increasing your membership.

In your excellent novel “Patriots”, the organization element of the story sort of “fell into place” with a cadre of intelligent, like-minded individuals, possessing complementary skills assembling [partly] by chance meetings. It was also convenient that none of the group members had small children, elderly dependents or chronic health conditions. Another complication which wasn’t addressed was that of group members with other “attachments”. None of the characters in the book came to the retreat with an uninvited guest, like a sibling who had experienced a miraculous change of heart upon realizing that their “survivalist nut” brother was right all along.

This is the single most frustrating element of my preparedness efforts. I know that it’s going to take more than a tiny group of people to survive a prolonged catastrophe, but all of the potential complications involved in finding new members makes it very difficult to do any recruiting. I can acquire skills and assemble materials to the best of my abilities, but in the end, there won’t be any real substitute for a few more rifle-wielding warm bodies.

Any insights, strategies or suggestions you might have for filling the void would be much appreciated. Sincerely, – LW

JWR Replies: The situation I described in my novel actually mirrored my personal circumstances at the time that I wrote the first draft, in early 1990. I had just been married three years, and my wife and I had not yet had any children. Although I consolidated things a bit to avoid having “a cast of thousands”, the majority of the characters in the novel were based on real-life friends, and “The Group” paralleled a group that I had associated with since college.

When recruiting for any retreat group, proceed with prayer.

To supplement your own extended family, try to find folks with the same religious background and representing a good mix of skills. My novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse” describes some of the specific skills that would be ideal for a group retreat–like a doctor, a mechanic, a machinist/welder, a farmer, a combat veteran, and so on. If you are already living at your intended retreat, it is probably best to recruit locally. If not, then you should probably recruit regionally looking for preparedness-minded people that have the same long-term relocation destination, or at least the willingness to be flexible about where they relocate.

As previously mentioned in SurvivalBlog, I recommend three web sites (two paid, and one free) for making connections–whether you are looking to join or form a retreat group, or even for someone looking looking for a “prepper” spouse. They are:

Conservative Match (a paid matchmaking service–based on shared conservative political/social views)

Liberty Mates (a paid matchmaking service–based on shared libertarian views)

The Survivalist Groups [“Meet-up”] web page–(a free service courtesy of the folks at SurvivalistBooks.com. If you use this service, then please give SurvivalistBooks.com some business!)

Needless to say, use discretion when using these services. As a prepared individual, you have more to lose than most folks. For your safety and security, it is better to go through a long series of correspondence and to do some background and reference checking before revealing your locale and details, or meeting face to face.