Economics and Investing:

This headline appeared yesterday: Stress Test Data to be Released May 4th. Since the pre-release rumors have been bad, Monday, May 4th could be a key event. Be ready for turmoil in the weeks following this announcement. Have plenty of cash on hand, since it will be difficult to predict what the sheeple will do on or after May 4th–when presumably the majority of US banks will be declared insolvent.

From DD: March existing home sales fall by three percent. “The results were ‘a little disappointing’ given that homes are more affordable than they’ve been in years and mortgage rates are near record lows, said Lawrence Yun, the group’s chief economist.” DD’s comment: “Words cannot express how absurd Yun’s statement is to me. After all, America is only facing the worst recession since the 1930s. Unemployment is out of sight and getting worse.The Federal government is overspending beyond comprehension. Not to mention that, American home buyers are too concerned about keeping what they are able to scrape together after new taxes amid their efforts to obtain food, shelter, water, transportation, et cetera. Then you throw in the fact that middle class jobs are being replaced by either unemployment or minimum wage work with little to no benefits. Finally, to top it all off some institutions require 20%+ for a down payment. Simple economics: If someone doesn’t have the means, the opportunity is irrelevant.”

Items from The Economatrix:

GM to Close Most US Factories Up to Nine Weeks

Majority Irish Expect Summer Civil Unrest

Volvo to Cut More than 1,500 Jobs

Bank Lending Keeps Dropping

US Advertising Famine Ravages NY Times and Yahoo Profits

Credit Card Giants Defy Plea to “Be Fair”

Bank Bailouts “May” Hurt Taxpayers, be Open to Fraud ” …the rescue program’s special inspector general concludes that a private-public partnership designed to rid financial institutions of their ‘toxic assets’ is tilted in favor of private investors and creates ‘potential unfairness to the taxpayer.'”

Fed Tests Harder on Regional Banks

Top Bailed-Out Firms Continue Lobbying “The top 10 recipients of the government’s $700 billion financial bailout spent about $9.5 million on federal lobbying during the first three months of the year.”

Geithner Says Most Banks Have Sufficient Capital to Keep Lending…. ” …but a pile of bad debts is fostering doubts about their health and slowing a recovery”

Tipping Point For US Treasuries?

Fed Shrouding $2 Trillion in Bank Loans “In Secrecy,” Suit Says

The Mighty Debt Purge of 2009

The Quiet Coup “The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States. One of the most alarming, says a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is that the finance industry has effectively captured our government—a state of affairs that more typically describes emerging markets, and is at the center of many emerging-market crises. If the IMF’s staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells all countries in this situation: recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform. And if we are to prevent a true depression, we’re running out of time.”

A Meditation on Our Monetary System: A State of Permanent Siege

12 Major Brands that Will Disappear

Jobless Claims Show Double-Digit Unemployment Still Coming

If Banks Can Challenge Stress Tests, are they Tests at All?

The Land Mine on Bank Balance Sheets

Odds ‘n Sods:

Mat found a great Swiss Army Knife Forum, devoted to collecting and modifying the Großvater of all survival tools. The Swiss Army Knife (Schweizer Offiziersmesser) is a must for each teenager and adult family member. Unlike a Leatherman tool, they are light enough for daily pocket carry. The forum has some interesting information on outdoor survival projects such as tin can stoves.

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Commander Zero has some interesting commentary on the current shortage of ammunition, magazines, and primers: 1994 Versus Now. JWR’s comment: Commander Zero’s observations are spot on. It may be years before manufacturers catch up with demand, and by then, the legislative landscape may have shifted. We may see substantially higher taxes on guns, gun parts, ammo, and reloading components. Never underestimate the ability of politicians to serve themselves a big slice of pie, whenever they see a prosperous market. In my estimation, the greatest gains will be in prices for full capacity (11+ round) magazines, since there is a very high likelihood of a “high capacity” ban. There will still be guns manufactured that can accept full capacity magazines, but only neutered 10 round magazines will be legal to manufacture. The law of supply and demand dictates that magazine prices will rise. (All the buyers of those new guns will want to buy at least one full capacity magazine, and probably several.) It will be 1994 all over again, but this time without a 10 year “Sunset” clause. So it not unrealistic to expect to see 33 round Glock magazines selling for $200+ in just a few years.

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Yet another journalist has asked for interviews of SurvivalBlog readers. If you live within 60 miles of Nashville, Tennessee, take note: A Religion reporter with The Tennessean would like to talk with you. His emphasis for the article will be on how Christians approach survivalism. Contact: Bob Smietana. Phone: 615-259-8228 Or e-mail: bsmietana@tennessean.com. (The usual OPSEC rules apply…)

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Allan S. found this Australian web page instructive: The Food “Lifeboat”: Food and nutrition considerations in the event of a pandemic or other catastrophe. (Don’t forget the Vegemite!)

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

Here we live in a country that has a fabulous constitution and all these guarantees, a contract between the citizens and the government – nobody knows what’s in it. It’s one of the best kept secrets. And so, if you don’t know what your rights are, how can you stand up for them? And furthermore, if you don’t know what is in that document, how can you care if someone is shredding it?” – Frank Zappa (1940 – 1993), as quoted by Spin Magazine, July 1991

Letter Re: G.O.O.D. Advice for College Students

James,
Our family recently found your book and blog. We are working diligently to prepare. One question I have not seen addressed: What do you think about sending a child to college? We are a conservative, Christian, home schooling family. Our daughter has been looking forward to attending a small Christian college that is about 1-1/2 hours from our home. Now that we are awake we are feeling that keeping her close to home as we prepare to relocate is best. Any thoughts? – S. in Southern California

JWR Replies: A college that is just a 1-1/2 hour drive is probably close enough, especially if she has her own car. But living in Southern California–with both earthquake risk and a high crime rate–be sure to identify and practice driving several alternate routes on surface streets and back roads, just in case she must “Get Out of Dodge” (G.O.O.D.)

As a backup, keeping a Montague folding bicycle–kept chained to the bed frame in her dorm room–could get your daughter home, even in the event of a major earthquake that causes road closures. Montague folding bikes are available from Safecastle, one of our loyal advertisers.

I also strongly recommend self defense training for your daughter–both firearms and martial arts. (The latter is important for Californians, since open carry of firearms is effectively banned, and concealed carry permits are very difficult to obtain in most of the more populous counties.) She should attend Front Sight or Gunsite, and one of the better full contact martial arts schools that teaches an art with plenty of kicks and punches (such as Tae Kwon Do), and then perhaps she might move on to one of the advanced grappling arts (such as JuJitsu).

Oh, and as previously mentioned in the blog, I recommend that the first two years of college credits be obtained by a combination of CLEP tests and on-line courses. Not only is this less expensive than resident on-campus classes, but it also will keep your child safely at home for a couple of extra years.

Letter Re: It Takes a Tiller

Hello Jim,
Anyone serious about food production needs to have a quality rear-tined tiller such as a Troy-Bilt. However the cost can be prohibitive,close to $2,000 for the seven horsepower model. But be patient and keep an eye on auctions, classified ads, etc. Two weeks ago a good friend picked up an older model Troy-Bilt at an auction for $450. We were both like kids at Christmas (I already have mine).
This brings up another point. This same friend had always been a guns and ammo kind of prepper. After several months of convincing he has finally seen the need to be well rounded in his preps. Weapons are important but far from the most important. His Troy-Bilt tiller is partial proof that he is changed his mindset.
Take care, – Jeff in Ohio

Letter Re: A Possible Blunder with Bulk-Packed Storage Food

Mr. Rawles,
We have recently found that we have also made a food storage blunder and hope to prevent someone else from doing the same. Following the eat what you store and store what you eat advice, we store a good bit of rice. We purchase buckets at the local big box home store and thought we were doing ourselves a favor by adding one more thing to keep the rice fresh in our humid climate. We put the rice in the “clean” looking white kitchen trash bags, using them as a liner, and then in the buckets. We did this more than eight months ago and just found out from routine internet reading and education, that all trash bags are coated with pesticides. I guess this is common knowledge in the food storage arena, but even after doing this for years, we somehow missed that one. We are not sure what to do with the rice now, whether we can just take the rice out and remove the liner or if we need to pitch it. Any advice would be appreciated. Thank you. – Lori

JWR Replies: You should contact the manufacturer to determine whether that particular type of trash bag is “food grade”. Be sure to ask if they are treated with pesticides or any other toxic chemicals. If not, then the food in question should be fine.

Letter Re: A.P. Reporter Seeks Newbie Preppers in SoCal for Interview

JWR’s Introductory Note: I got the following from a legitimate reporter that has promised a fair and balanced article. Of course the usual OPSEC considerations apply…

Hello.
I am a reporter with The Associated Press and I am working on a story about the growing number of people taking steps to stock up on emergency food, water and other supplies because of concerns about the recession and the stability of the networks that keep our grocery stores stocked up and our power running. I interviewed Jim Rawles last week and he suggested that I post here to find people who would be good to talk to for my piece.
I am specifically looking for people who haven’t really thought much about emergency preparedness/survivalism before, but have started to stock up on supplies recently (say, in the last six months) because of the bad news on the economy and the financial system. I am based in Southern California, so I am really looking to talk to folks who live in Southern California – although I could do interviews by phone with people from out-of-state.
Please contact me at reporting4good@gmail.com if you would be willing to be interviewed for this story.
Once you contact me, I will respond with my business e-mail and name and other contact information. I would just rather not put up that information in a general post that anyone can see.
I look forward to hearing from people soon!

Gillian Flaccus
Associated Press, Orange County Correspondent

Letter Re: Bicycles as Bug-Out and Utility Vehicles

Jim:

While solid tires have their advantages, ordering them from the Airfreetires.com company is not recommended. The Better Business Bureau (BBB) gives them an F rating.
Just wanted my fellow readers to know they should be leery of ordering from them. I do not speak from personal experience because I heeded the warnings I read on a wonderful resource for bicycle info: www.bikeforums.net The “Utility Cycling” area has a wealth of info concerning the type of info on foam-filled tires.- EliteT

Economics and Investing:

From frequent content contributor G.G.: Gold rush in the suburbs as shine disappears from economy

D.D. suggested this: Why the bank stress tests are bunk; The Obama team has put banks under the microscope and plans to release the results. If the findings are bad, expect more market turmoil. If they’re rosy, who’ll believe them?

Some sobering news in The New York Times: I.M.F. Puts Bank Losses From Global Financial Crisis at $4.1 Trillion


Items from The Economatrix:

Freddie Mac CFO Apparent Suicide

Global Economy Expected to Shrink this Year

Leading Economist Decries Power of Wall Street “Oligarchs”

Five Reasons Why House Prices May Never Recover

Bank Profits Appear Out of Thin Air

Yuan Trade Move “Far Reaching”

Pay Up or Get Out

Odds ‘n Sods:

Several items of gun news were sent to us by Cheryl: Firearm Sales Surging Since Obama’s Election — Gun Ownership Growing, Following National Trends — Shortage of Guns, Ammo Reported

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Cheryl also mentioned an interesting piece over at Steve Quayle’s site: Raising Catfish In A Barrel

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Some encouraging news: Gary in Montana mentioned that the recently-enacted “Made in Montana” Federal gun law exemption (Montana HB 246), is now being emulated in two other state legislatures: Alaska HB 186 and Texas HB 1863. I expect this trend to continue, especially in southern and western states. In my estimation Wyoming, Idaho, South Dakota, and Utah are the next states most likely to enact similar legislation.

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Canned Ham, Going Once, Going Twice: The Rise In Grocery Auctions

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“The bulls will buy stocks believing that we have another bull market on our hands. After having lost 50% of their money since 2007, they’ll lose another 20% – 30% when this rally collapses.

The bears, meanwhile, are convinced that there is worse to come. They think the stimulus spending programs will cause inflation. So they’re buying gold and commodity stocks sure that when inflation comes, it will cause mining and oil stocks to soar. Maybe it will eventually. But the first big move will probably be down. They, too, will lose big.

That could be the Big Surprise of this depression. It will kill the stock market bulls when the bear market rally collapses… then it will kill the stock market bears when the mining and commodity stocks collapse… and then it will wipe out the middle-class savers when inflation increases and the dollar collapses.” – Bill Bonner, writing in the Fleet Street Invest newsletter

Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 22 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The contest prizes include:

First Prize: Two transferable Front Sight  “Gray” Four Day Training Course Certificates. This is an up to $4,000 value!
Second Prize: A three day course certificate from OnPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses.
Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing

Round 22 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Save Money, Get Prepared, and Eat Healthier with Intermediate Term Food Storage, by Travis A.

In any emergency or survival situation food is a primary necessity. So naturally there are many discussions and advice here and on other forums concerning food and food storage. There is a lot of great information and products available for long term (10-15 year) food storage. I have read many articles comparing the various MREs available, poured over blog posts about the best freeze dried foods, and watched Google videos on the proper storage of whole wheat grains. Popular vendors such as CampingSurvival.com and other SurvivalBlog sponsors offer freeze dried meals and canned food with extended shelf lives such as the Yoder’s line of products. While these options can be a good investment, the acquisition of a ample supply can pose a challenge to those new to prepping and to families on a fixed budget. It can certainly seem daunting (and perhaps financially impossible) to a newcomer to buy the large amount of food needed to sustain a period of extended crises. And while its nice to have 5 gallon buckets stacked full of red winter wheat, many do not have the equipment or knowledge for preparing and cooking storage foods like wheat, should the need arise. In addition, an important aspect to any food storage program is the regular rotation and use of your storage food as part of your regular diet. The average family exploring preparedness for the first time is not going to make major changes to their eating habits overnight.

Since most sound advice suggests having at least one year supply or food on hand, there is no apparent reason to stockpile foods with a storage life of 15+ years. When properly integrated into your daily diet, foods with a storage life of 1-to-3 years can form a good base for your food storage program. (An excellent resource for determining the storage life of certain foods has been mentioned here before: http://www.stilltasty.com ) One of the best ways I have found to build up a convenient, usable food supply in a cost effective manner is the bulk purchase of rice, pasta, and various spices. Dry goods such as spices, rice, and pastas generally have a shelf life of at least two years when stored properly. These basic ingredients can be combined in different ways to create a foundation for a wide variety of healthy, delicious meals. Additionally, mixing up recipes in advance can make it easy to include them in your daily diet. The principal is based on the popular Lipton and Rice-a-Roni side dishes found in your local grocery store. However, rather than paying $1.25 to $2.00 each, you can make these sides for less than 25 cents when properly purchasing ingredients. Additionally, you do not have the added colors and preservatives typically found in the store bought packages. As an added benefit, the ease of preparation of these prepackage meals makes their use in an emergency ideal. Simply add water and cook them on a gas grill, propane camp stove, or similar heat source. Immediately following a SHTF event, the less time and energy spent on food prep frees one to focus on improving your situation. Below are a few examples of recipes you can make with the dry ingredients:

Chicken Onion: 3-Tbsp Chicken Bullion Base, 3?4 Tbsp Minced Onions, 1 Tsp Cornstarch, 1 Tbsp Parsley Flakes, 1?2 Tsp Garlic Powder, 1?2 Tsp Celery Salt, 1?4 Tsp Black Pepper, Mix with 4 oz of pasta or 5 oz or rice. Add 2 1?2 cups of boiling water, cook over medium heat until noodles or rice is done. (Add 1?2 Tbsp of Evaporated Milk for a creamier taste)

Italian Beef: 3-Tbsp Beef Bullion Base, 1?2 Tbsp Oregano, 1?2 Tbsp Onion powder, 1 1?2 Tsp Minced Garlic, 1?4 Tbsp or Basil, 1?4 Tsp of Black Pepper, 1 tbsp Parsley Flake, Mix with 4 oz of pasta or 5 oz or rice. Add 2 1?2 cups of boiling water, cook over medium heat until noodles or rice is done. (Add 1 Tbsp of Powdered Tomato Paste for an alternative taste.)

Tasty Additions
Use a wide variety of rice (white, brown, wild) and pastas (bow tie, fettuccini, rigatoni) for maximum flavor and texture combinations to help reduce the chances of appetite fatigue. For other flavor variations and extra nutrition add dehydrated carrots, broccoli, peas, or corn. Experiment with the above ingredients or add your own until you find several combinations your family likes. Once you determine a few recipes you like, take out one Saturday and mix up a few big batches. Include everyone for a fun family event. You can package individual servings in Ziploc bags or vacuum seal them for a longer shelf life. As an alternative to individual servings, multiply all ingredients by 20 or more but leave out the pasta/rice. Now you have big jars of your spice mix that you can just scoop from, to mix with your pasta or rice when you are ready to cook it. Just keep track of the proper combination (for example, 1?2 cup or spice mix per 6oz of pasta).

These cost effective mixtures can be eaten by themselves, used as a good side dish, or serve as a basis for a full meal. To extend its meal potential and increase nutritional value consider adding fresh vegetables from your garden or your favorite meat for extra protein. I like to roast a whole turkey or chicken a few weekends a month. I simply add the precook turkey/chicken to various combinations throughout the week for a fast, easy, nutritious meal. This type of storage and preparation can fit well with today’s busy suburban life. It is also a good idea to include cans of Tuna, Chicken, or Yoder’s Turkey Chunks, in your food storage for use in your recipes now or post-TEOTWAWKI situation. Canned meats like this generally have a shelf life of 3-5 years. Another good option now or after the SHTF would be to experiment with the addition of fresh sprouts. Sprouts are cheap and easy to grow and add a lot of flavor and nutrition to your dishes. I use the Sprout Garden Kit available over at Ready Made Resources. Broccoli, radish, alfalfa, and bean sprouts are packed with nutrients and the sprouting seeds have a shelf life of 4-5 years.

Acquiring the Ingredients
For the purchase of your ingredients, the best advice is to shop around and buy in bulk. Buying spices off the spice rack of your local grocer is not advisable. Places like Sam’s Club and Costco carry large containers of spices for restaurants. A 6 oz vial of garlic powder might run $3.00 at the grocery store but you can buy a 7 pound bottle at Sam’s Club for only $17.50. One good resource I have found is BulkFoods.com. You can buy a 5lb bag of chicken base for less than $15.00. They also carry Broccoli flakes, dehydrated, carrots, peas, tomato powder and more. Many times they have better pricing than Costco or Sam’s on some items. Northbay Trading also carries dried vegetables in bulk. When making purchases just remember that the bigger quantities offer better pricing. A 50lb bag of rice at Sam’s is only $22.00. Another idea is to search for wholesale or bulk food suppliers in larger cities near where you live. For example, I found a wholesale grocer near me (Leon H. Lewis, in St. Louis, Missouri) where I can buy 20 lb and 30 lb bags of pasta for $10.00. They also carry Parsley by the pound for $5.50 and pound bags or oregano for $3.90. Most of these bulk food suppliers and food manufacturers target schools and institutions but many will sell to the general public.

By pursuing this type of food storage program you can reduce your family’s current food expenses while developing an emergency store of food that you like to eat. I hope this information helps you ramp up your food storage program and save time and money on everyday meals. For more information and tips on bulk food purchases, our gracious host offers the excellent “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. – Travis A.

Six Letters Re: Bicycles as Bug-Out and Utility Vehicles

Six Letters Re: Bicycles as Bug-Out and Utility Vehicles

James
Firstly I wish there were at least as many bicycle articles and questions on SurvivalBlog as gun posts. As a gun maker, gunsmith, firearm owner, and combat user I still put a fancy semi-auto combat rifle below a decent bicycle for most people’s survival purchase priorities. Let me offer a contrarian viewpoint on the priority of complete firearm battery in your survival shopping list. Obtain some snares, a quality .22 semi-auto, and a few thousand rounds of ammo, a few months of food and cooing fuel, basic camping/shelter gear and then get a decent bicycle. It is quite possible to hunt for meat and drive off most random bandits with a .22, just remember when money becomes available that you can do much better once you have other very important categories squared away. As I usually try to squeeze into all of my posts, survivalism is not being a Navy SEAL, a SWAT team, or even a gun collector, it is about surviving. Someone that confuses their gun, ham radio, equestrian, medieval weapon, or other hobby for survivalism leads to misplaced priorities and funds that are better spent on important preparations.

When cruising bike shops, thrift stores, and police auctions consider the following:
Don’t worry about the state of the tires, since you will probably replace them even on a new bike. Learn how to recognize a good set of rims and a well built wheel with good spokes, this is a major failure area, they should be round and when spun roll freely and not move to the left and right(small deviations can be fixed by an expert adjusting the spokes). Road rims are often too light for survival use but are quite nice if you know you will be touring on well paved road, for our purposes though stick to the more universal 26-inch heavy mountain rims. Unless you are an expert on servicing shock absorbers go for a hard tail and solid forks, the majority of discount bikes have junk springs and no oil dampeners and are a weak point in the design. Good long life shocks for big guys can be around $300 or more in my experience (I weight over 200 pounds), anything less has left me with blown seals even in moderate to heavy utility use.

Handlebars are more important than most leisure riders would think, long rides will make you want more hand positions than a straight mountain bike handlebar offers, rams head bars or at least wrapped ‘horns’ give you a place to reposition and rest your hands on long rides. Good bike gloves really help here too. Some conversations with bike mechanics, test driving bicycles, and visiting bicycle nut boards (just like gun nut boards) will help you know which types of brakes, shifters, cables, dérailleurs, and other components are good and which are junk. Especially examine the rear dérailleur and dérailleur hanger on used bikes for breakage and the front dérailleur for chain wear, replace and stock quality brake pads and cable. You will be replacing any used chain, keep your chain clean and oiled with proper oil, carry and learn how to use a chain breaker tool, stockpile quality chain and bicycle chain oil; these are big barter items.

A worn chain will wear down the sprockets, look for saw tooth shaped sprocket teeth and if present replace the gear cassette. In flat country a single speed bicycle with coaster brakes is the best choice since it is nearly maintenance free, but consider a good gear range set if a bug out to mountainous territory is a possibility, remembering that once gears are involved, even the best expensive internal hubs are less reliable than a simple single speed. There has been a fad of fixed gear, a web search will tell you more, my opinion is that it just moves the mechanical stress to your legs an knees, fine if you are 16 years old but not if you are 40. You will be repacking all of the wheel and crank bearings with quality bearing grease on a used bicycle, I use marine grade grease hoping it will be more waterproof.

Check the frame for stress cracks and dents from accidents, especially aluminum or exotic frames. Steel frames can be welded or brazed especially in a low stress area, Aluminum and exotic composition repairs are best left to experts or thrown out. Buy and have spares for your bicycle saddle, get a performance seat not a lazy-boy fat seat, test out several but remember that your butt will get used to a performance seat after a while, but a far comfort seat might make it harder to aggressively pedal. Men be sure to get something that protects your ‘family’ anatomy. A seat that is too hard and regular pressure can damage your tissue and circulation leading to dysfunction, especially on bumpy roads. It is possible to rebuild a saddle with full grain cowhide, especially if you find someone skilled in shoe making, I don’t like rear shocks because of weight and cost but I do use a spring saddle to protect my spine from big road shocks. I always stay away from the cheap toy/department store bicycles and their dismal components, there is no realist upgrade path for this junk other than replacement so avoid it unless you have no alternative, any bike is better than no bike, if you are stuck you could always make it into a one speeder coaster brake bike, eliminating the cheap unreliable gears.

Buy the best tires and tubes you can afford, this is where the rubber literally meets the road. Since I switched to Schwable Kevlar tires I have not had a flat in 3 years of hard urban commute, even using other high quality brands I usually needed to patch a tire at least once every other month over ten years of heavy rural and urban high mileage cycling, Schwables are also very long wear life tires. Knobby tires might sound good for mud, but they rob you of much rolling momentum on roads, Specialized brand Cross-Roads tires are a good compromise with knobby sides and a center strip for dry dirt, hardpan, and paved roads.

For a good example of a nearly ideal survival bicycle research the old Swiss military bicycles. If there is a possibility of hitchhiking there are tough quality folder bikes available, never discount the utility of grabbing a free ride over your own muscle power, even in TEOTWAWKI. Try to stick to a bike with quality standard components which can be improvised or scavenged from junked bicycles if required. After doing some solid research you will still need to invest some money to get a good bicycle most of the time, new expect to spend a minimum of $300 list price, do not waste your money at toy or discount stores, either buy quality used and have service done at a competent local bike shop or let them help you pick out something new, just like buying a firearm.

You will need to carry a repair kit at all times including a good pump, quality patches (I use Rema Tip-Top), a spare tube in case the valve stem is damaged or you cant patch the hole, tire levers, and a folding bike tool I like the Crank Brothers multi tools which include spoke, chain, hex and screwdrivers and more. Swap in your good tube and patch the hole when you are in a comfortable place. If you are really in the rough carrying a folding tire in your pannier might be worth the weight versus walking, tubes, patches, and tires are serious stockpile and barter items. Buy a quality helmet, ankle strap, gloves, and lights, since in most scenarios you will be sharing the road.

There are many more considerations and much research is required to buy, build, or rebuild a good survival cycle, there is plenty of info on discussion boards to help you but start at http://www.sheldonbrown.com/ Sheldon Browns bicycle mechanic web site, he is no longer with us but his genius will continue to help cyclists.

Since this is SurvivalBlog we must discuss firearms carry on a cycle, this is my personal experience and YMMV. Handguns should be worn high and tight just below the kidney area of the back, I use a belt pancake holster just behind where the hipbone sticks out, it is most comfortable on long rides and probably the safest place for a large handgun in a fall. Rifles are best carried in an ATV handlebar gun rack pointed forward mounted on the handlebars. Any other attachment of AR-15 family or larger rifles that I can think of would just get in the way anywhere else, although the US military mounts rifles to the top tube with their Montague full-size folding bikes, I have never used a mount like this. A slung rifle will fall forward and/or rub. For those readers with access to full-auto pistol style SMGs like the mini or micro-Uzi in some sort of holster attached to the handlebars might be an option to spray bad guys in a surprise ambush.

Many of the readers will consider their bicycle either a vital part of their bug-out-bag or even a secondary bug-out vehicle so carrying cargo is important to discuss. BOB trailers and kid carriers are good for open roads, but an overly wide trailer can make moving a bicycle onto sidewalks and between cars difficult to impossible even in normal times. Cycling with anything past a light comfortable backpack leads to fatigue. Panniers and rack and handlebar mounting is the best option for gear, let your bicycle shoulder the weight, there many options available on discussion boards. It is important to remember that your loading should not get in the way of quick defensive firearms access.

For those who are considering adding a small motor I suggest buying a scooter or dirt bike instead. Battery and gas assist motors add to the weight of the bicycle, get in the way, and are quite expensive, not to mention the lack of electricity or fuel in a serious society collapse. one exception would be that initial bug out would be accomplished by gas motor add on and then remove it for utility uses, this would not cause the long term stress on the bicycle wheel and might be reasonable. – David in Israel

Hi!
I’ve admired your site for a while. It is very informative.
In response to your listed article about bug-out bicycling, It would greatly benefit anyone following that strategy to investigate GreenTyre. They sell poly-ply, airless tires that last for years. A little hard for the novice to install, but very much worth it without sacrificing ride quality.
Just an FYI from a blog reader. – JHF

 

Jim–
I saw the article on bikes on the blog. Thought I’d toss the web site for AirFreeTires into the mix. They make great tires–I have them on my Specialized mountain bike, a couple of 1960s vintage Schwinn bikes, a couple of my wheelbarrows, …you get my drift. If I could, my farm tractor, garden tractor, etc. would be equipped with these things Take care and God bless you and your family. You are doing good work. – Tom S.

 

Mr Editor,
A reminder to make sure to bring your lock for your “bug out” bike. Some young guy rode off on my husband’s bike a few years ago, and he had to run after him, and jerk him off the back of the bike to get it back. Then some other guys hollered at him to ask what was going on, so he yelled back that the guy was stealing his bike, and the guys then laughed and forgot about it. At the time, there were no emergencies going on, and it happened a few years before the “recession”. So if there’s no gas available, or the limited gas is really high priced with long lines like it was when we evacuated in advance of Hurricane Rita, bikes will look pretty good to those without transportation. (Yes, we both had locks on our bikes for the Hurricane Rita evacuation).

I should mention that our truck had two tire blowouts during the evacuation, so we now have an extra mounted tire available to throw in the bed of the truck if we have to evac/bug out. Those inflate-a-tire cans won’t do much for shredded tires. And my husband checks [the two spare] tires every spring when I do hurricane prep[aration checks and supply refurbishment].- Sheila

Hi Jim

I just read the article on Bicycles as Bug-Out and Utility Vehicles. I’ve been on vacation by bicycle in Italy several times.

Always keep at least one spare tire and at least 4 inner tubes with you on multi-day trips. Buy the tubes on different occasions at different stores. I once had a batch of four inner tubes that all leaked! Tubes are made in production batches and sometimes a production run goes terribly bad.

Also remember the experience in the Netherlands in the Second World War. Everybody was cycling around with wooden wheels [or even on bare rims] since there were no tires left. They are the hardest part to get in a SHTF scenario. Most other parts you can get by breaking apart other bikes but tires completely run out after a year. I have at least four tires of every type I need at home. I also have a 80 year-old very strong transportation bike which has tires that are extremely durable. Some postmen use these tires. (Called “transport, extra heavy”)
They cost a bit more (about 30 Euros per tire) but last easily 5+ years and for some reason they simply cannot get leaks in their inner tubes. I never had a flat in 15 years, only one tore apart because the inner tube was too old (!) and the bike was standing parked in full sun (so don’t do that ;-))

I use different types of tires for different types of functions. For everyday Utility I use my extra heavies, for speed racing I use very fast but fragile tires and on longer trips I use road touring tires. These are thicker and less fast but a flat tire will bring your daily speed down too. Don’t “save money” and buy bargain-priced tires because the more expensive ones are really worth it.

For parts: well, just use a bike with less parts for everyday use. After a long period they all run out, even yours. The best Utility bikes are in my opinion so called strong old quality “dutch bikes” with no gears, no handbrakes, no headaches. For inner city everyday use this is just perfect. On vacation I of course use a different bike. Light, strong and with 21 gears. I use and maintain it often. Grease is a good friend. If you use the bike often it pays back to initially spend a bit more on them. On vacation I take with me extra brake shoes, a gear cable and gear connector. With good gear I never had real problems. Also a basic multitool and bike gear (Allen keys, wrench 10, 12, 15, practice what you need). Install quicklock systems to have less nuts & bolts and to work faster and with less tools. I have hydraulic brakes which are very strong, reliable and never let me down in 10 years.

A mountain bike for bug-out is nice but heavy, not very fast and not very useable for long distances. You will get tired faster. Typical mountain bike tires offer more resistance and are far less fast. A mountain bike is of course very good to stay off road and for special ops. It depends on your situation, but I have very good roads everywhere, also on places were you will hardly meet anyone. I prefer asphalt roads along waterways for example. Speed is more important for me. Stay in front of the hordes and get out fast! I have a very light racing bike to keep me in shape which is part of my prepping. Maybe getting in shape is the first and far most important reason for having a bug-out bike at all.

I also keep a little bug-out bag stored with my racing bike with essential light weight survival gear (knife, Micron stove, Maglite, Katadyn water filter, etc.) and three days of preps. That should get me out 450 kilometers at least. Enough cash will buy me a place to stay and eat after that. If you go on vacation on a bicycle you will find out that there are always helpful people around when you arrive somewhere with a friendly face when I arrive sweaty and very tired.

I have respect for your blog! It has taught me a lot. I hope to do something in return by writing. Regards, – Jeroen in Holland

Sir;
Be aware that AirfreeTires.com offers polyurethane microfoam tires that cannot go flat or blow out. I prefer these two varieties of tires:

26×1.9 Sierra Unidirectional High Rebound
and,
26×1.9 Ocelot High Rebound

They have little rolling resistance under my 280 lbs. I have used them since October, 2001. IMO the ride is comparable to Michelin Wildgripper Sprint 26×1.95.

Regards, – Vlad

Two Letters Re: Pedal Power for Electricity Generation and Water Pumping

James:
As for using a bicycle as a PTO device, imagine being asked to pedal uphill for hours on end, going nowhere, summer or winter, until the power comes back, this is the slavery of powering off of your bicycle, it works to provide some feeble current, but there are much better ways to spend your man hours and food calories. Notable exceptions are using a small wheel generator for bike lights or small battery charging like mobile phones as you travel, BTW you will need to add a rectifier and voltage regulator circuit since bike generators produce AC power, an inexpensive friction generator will wear on your tire, but hubs dynamos are expensive around $50 plus requiring a wheel rebuild. You could power an old belt drive Singer sewing machine, or flywheel for light machine shop tools, since these do not require such exertion, there are plans available for using a broken bicycle to put the pedal drive under your work table. If you want electrical power, then go with solar, wind, or a water wheel. Don’t be an energy slave. To move water make a water tower, cistern, or pond on a hilltop and pump using wind power, since it will be gravity fed you have available water in the storage and the pump will run every time there is wind refilling the storage. Other options are using a water wheel pump, or the very reliable inertial pump.
All the best to you and the family – David in Israel

 

Jim:

Back Home magazine published an article on a bicycle powered water pump in their March/April 2009 issue (#99). The issue is available online for $3.75. – Matt