Letter Re: Novel Recommendation–“Solar Flare” by Larry Burkett

Mr. Rawles,
I have read your novel Patriots and passed it along to several people that I know. Most of them now own their own copy as well and it has been a big boost in helping them see the need for making preparations for the times ahead.

It is with great interest that I have read the recent discussions about solar flares on the blog. The novel that first piqued my interest in survival and preparedness was the book Solar Flare by Strategic Air Command veteran and former NASA employee Larry Burkett. The premise of the novel is an eruption of solar flares that destroys much of the technology in the modern world, and how people begin to cope and adapt. Certainly not as comprehensive as your novel but it is an interesting read nonetheless. Before his death in 2003, Mr. Burkett was also a well known Christian financial advisor and wrote other books such as What Ever Happened to the American Dream?, The Coming Economic Earthquake, and Your Finances in Changing Times.

Thanks again for your work on the blog, and God Bless! – Bryan S.

JWR Replies: The majority of opinion is that the likelihood of a truly massive solar flare event (i.e. a huge coronal mass ejection (CME) with an accompanying X-ray flare burst) is extremely low. Ian O’Neill, one of the chief debunkers of solar flares and similar threats posts at the Universe Today web site. I generally agree with him, but I don’t completely rule out the chance of a massive flare that could have EMP-like effects. Just like the often over-emphasized “magnetic pole shift.” and sudden-onset climate change threats, I personally place the CME threat way over at the far end of the threat matrix. It is the corner of the chart that I label “Extremely low likelihood in our lifetimes, but devastating if it were to occur.” My viewpoint on preparedness for a massive CME event is this: As long as we are preparing for nuclear fallout and EMP as every family should, then we are also preparing for solar flare shielding–since those preparations are nearly identical.

Odds ‘n Sods:

KAF sent us this follow-up article about the recent IndyMac bank run and closure: Chuck Schumer, bank killer. OBTW, I stand by my prediction (since 2007) that there will soon be widespread bank failures and runs. The global credit collapse has made them inevitable. JWR’s recommendation: Check up on your bank’s safety rating. Spread out your risk between institutions by opening numerous smaller accounts, and keep extra cash on hand! For many years, I have recommended Weiss Ratings (now part of TheStreet.com) as an information source for judging the safety of banks and insurers, for my consulting clients. Marty Weiss and his staff do excellent research and, unlike Standard & Poors, they are truly independent and objective. Meanwhile, we read: Fannie Mae, Freddie Rescue a `Unmitigated Disaster’

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Thanks to Paul B. for this link: Why Wall Street Is in the Midst of Its Worst Round of Layoffs in Decades

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Reader Norman in England sent us this from The Times of London: Britain is creating youths who have nothing to lose by crime.

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Northerners Flee Rising Heating Oil Costs. (A hat tip to Luke N.)

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“The basic tool for the manipulation of reality is the manipulation of words. If you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use the words.” – Philip K. Dick

Note from JWR:

Wow! We are rapidly approaching the milestone of four million unique visits to SurvivalBlog. Not bad for a “niche” blog. Thanks for helping to make SurvivalBlog such a success. Please continue to spread the word.

There is just one day left in the current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction. The high bid is now at $370. This auction is for two cases (12 cans) of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans donated by Ready Made Resources, valued at $260, a course certificate for a four-day Bushcraft & Survival Course valued at $550, 25 pounds of green (un-roasted) Colombian Supremo coffee courtesy of www.cmebrew.com valued at $88.75, and a set of 1,600 U.S. Military Manuals, Government Manuals, and Civil Defense Manuals, Firearm Manuals on two CD-ROM disks, valued at $20. Please e-mail us your bid, ASAP. The auction ends at midnight (eastern time) on July 15, 2008.

Letter Re: Report From an Enthusiastic XD Pistol Shooter

Hi Jim,
I recently bought a Glock 21 (.45 ACP). Although the pistol works great, it did not fit my hand well and it tended to point to the right as I brought it up to fire. I have large hands so it was not a “large gun, small hand” problem. I love my Glock 19 and Glock 27 so there is no anti-Glock bias here.

For comparison, I bit the bullet and bought a [Springfield Armory] XD Tactical in 45 ACP. Renting a gun is not an option where I live, so if you do not know someone with an particular model, you are out of luck in the testing department. Anyhow, I can not be more happy with my choice of the XD. The pistol is about as [Model] 1911 feeling as you can get in a plastic frame firearm. I believe it is the steel magazine used in the XD that allows for the much thinner and more ergonomic grip design. I was also pleasantly surprised by the ambidextrous safety that works like a 1911. No more weak finger magazine changes for me.

I would wholeheartedly recommend the XD to anyone looking for a reliable pistol and would point to my $600 Glock 21 mistake as evidence.
Kind regards, – Bill A.

JWR Replies: I’ve heard from many SurvivalBlog readers that they love the ergonomics of the XD grip angle. They are fantastic pistols. And now that spare parts for the XD pistols are becoming available, they are my top pick for self defense pistols. (And this comes from someone that was heretofore a dyed-in-the-wool M1911 dinosaur!)

A reminder to all SurvivalBlog readers in North America: Front Sight’s Gun + Gear + Training special offer (that includes a free XD pistol in your choice of calibers) will be ending soon. My advice is: go for it, or you will kick yourself later! It is a great bargain and it would be a shame to miss out. The Front Sight gray course certificates are transferable (they can be used by anyone that hasn’t trained at Front Sight before), so the deal is worthwhile even if you end up giving your course certificate to a relative or a friend that has the time to train. They also have no expiration date, so there are no worries if there is a delay in scheduling your classes. (OBTW, with the hot climate in southern Nevada, I recommend scheduling classes between mid-October and early April.)

Regarding your Glock 21, don’t consider it a “mistake” and a loss, just because it doesn’t fit your hand. As I’ve mentioned in SurvivalBlog before, there is an option for you: Both Robar and Arizona Response Systems do very nice machined grip reduction gunsmithing on Glocks. In his excellent book “Boston’s Gun Bible“, author Boston T. Party mentions that a large frame (G20/G21) Glock with a grip reduction feels a lot like holding a Browning Hi-Power. Boston highly recommends frame reductions. Although I haven’t personally had any Glock work done by them, I have done business with both Robar and Arizona Response Systems for more than a decade on other gunsmithing projects. Both firms are very competent and reputable. The last I heard, Robar had higher gunsmithing rates and a deeper backlog of orders. So you should probably go with T. Mark Graham at Arizona Response Systems. OBTW, if your budget allows it, have tritium sights installed at the same time as the grip reduction job.

Letter Re: Stocking Level Advice for a Preparedness Newbie

Hi James,
My name is Heather. My husband and a couple of friends started discussing your novel “Patriots” and that they wanted to be prepared. I began reading the book to get an idea what my husband was talking about. I found it very interesting and informative, however, being the more logistical minded of us I am at a loss as to where to start. We have four children under the age of 11 and live in downtown Salem, Oregon. We both work so we have some money to begin preparing with, but what do we start with? And if preparing for a scenario as described in the book, is there a formula or guesstimate on what each person will need for a year of food, clothing etc? I have been looking through books and web sites but I haven’t found anything like that. My husband and his friend are reviewing the weapons and such but is there a general guide to how much to stock up? I apologize in advance if this information was in the book or your web site and I missed it. Thank you very much for your book, your knowledge, and your enthusiasm! – Heather

JWR Replies: My oft-cited “Lists of Lists” post is a good starting point in prioritizing what you need. However, quantities can be very subjective. They are dependent on how long you think a crisis will last, and how many “strap hangers” will show up on your doorstep the day after the Schumer Hits the Fan (SHTF). Those siblings and cousins that incessantly teased you about being a “paranoid preparedness nut” (and that did nothing to provide for themselves) will be standing there, looking very sheepish.

As for determining quantities for food storage, see the calculator at the LDS Provident Living web site, which I linked to in this November, 2007 SurvivalBlog post.

Letter Re: The Mil-Spec AR-15 Parts Chart

Jim,
Maybe Chris S. misunderstood the AR reference chart that you referenced. I just wanted to defend the comparison link on ARs you posted. It is accurate on the quality. Remember, this list is only for specific models from a particular manufacturer, but is also overall a good gauge of how that manufacturer makes things. If xyz manufacturer properly stakes the carrier key sometimes (as Chris pointed out, his was better than the Bushmaster listed), and not all the time, they aren’t going to get the “X.” This is because they do not consistently or reliably produce quality. I can tell you from my firearms teaching experience, that the little things do add up or are by themselves critical. Lack of quality can get you killed. In particular, on an AR type weapon the most important thing to make sure that it is done properly is the bolt carrier group. The gas key screws must be staked or they risk backing out during firing, which can result in a major breakage/malfunction or even risks danger to the user. I’ve seen this happen. Also make sure the extractor spring has the black plastic insert (to boost extractor tension) or you might experience extraction issues. I’ve seen a lot of ARs malfunction (type 3/double feed) because some company saved themselves 25 cents in manufacturing and skipped inserting that black insert on a $1,200 rifle! That kinda makes me wonder what other corners they cut. Honestly, things like parkerizing under the front sight base that are on that chart, aren’t critical, but they can potentially extend the service life of the rifle and are an overall indicator of the attention the company pay to the manufacturing process. Like Chris S., I own a Bushmaster. But I have upgraded and fixed some of those more critical things on it (I swapped to an LMT bolt carrier group, and I staked the castle nuts), so that it is TEOTWAWKI-worthy.

Chris is right that you have to be careful when buying an AR-type rifle from a private party because many sellers will tell you (either by honest mistake or dishonestly) that “this is an xyz brand AR.” I got suckered a couple times when I was more inexperienced and didn’t know what I was looking at. Know your stuff, or bring along someone who does. Despite the paper trail, often buying directly from reputable [manufacturing] companies like Noveske or LMT, is the way to go. I strongly suggest SurvivalBlog readers who own or are thinking of owning an AR platform weapon to read that link you posted again, and in particular, the explanations below the chart that discuss why those things can be critical. Oh, and don’t forget, the AR-series rifles and carbines run best when well-lubricated. – PPPP

Odds ‘n Sods:

Krys in Idaho spotted this: World Bank’s Zoellick: Food prices high until 2012

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Cheryl sent us this troubling article over at The Market Oracle: Fannie and Freddie Credit Implosions Are Too Big to Bail Out

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Anyone that owns both an AR-15 and an FN 5.7mm pistol might be interested in the new 5.7 AR upper receiver groups made by FN. Apparently FN is finally now shipping them –unless this seller is marketing vaporware.

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Some Deep Schumer: IndyMac ‘Bank run caused by Senator comments’

Note from JWR:

Today, with permission, we present a guest article by economist Richard Daughty (a.k.a. “The Mogambo Guru”). I have been a fan of his columns for many years. He has a hilarious writing style, with articles that are often peppered with The Mogambo Guru’s Gloriously Insightful and Articulate Whilst Jovial Acronyms De Jour (TMGGIAAWJADJ). I should also mention that I unashamedly filched one of his acronyms for my own use, changing it slightly to: Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR).

Banks Are Suffering From Their Own Stupidity, by The Mogambo Guru

The first half of the year is over, and now all those brokerage accounts and retirement accounts will be sending out statements to hapless account holders, and it is bad news in spades. This is why (I assume) the Plunge Protection Team (composed of the Federal Reserve, the Treasury and bank insiders) tried to drive the stock markets up on Monday, June 30 – to make those account statements look not quite as bad, and, hopefully, prevent people from dumping all of their stock and bond holdings in a desperate attempt to save something before the whole idiotic, fiat-currency, unlimited-fractional-banking thing just collapses.

Perhaps this drop in the market averages (as demand overwhelms supply) is what prompted John Williams at Shadowstats.com to write, “Overhanging the markets for a number of years has been the question as to when the major holders of excess U.S. dollars in the global financial system might look to dump those holdings. An opportunity for that dumping is at hand.”

The reason is that “Most central banks know that their unwanted dollar hoards are going to generate long-term losses, but the oil markets have opened up an opportunity to mitigate some of those losses. For the rest of the world, dollar dumping now would reduce inflation risks outside the United States.”

This means that “Over the longer term, U.S. equities, bonds and the greenback should suffer terribly, while gold and silver prices should boom.”
And it is not just him and me that are so gloomy, but a new study from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) noted that a plunge in the dollar “may happen”, as the dollar has slid 14% against the euro (EUR) in the past year, handing foreign investors in U.S. dollar assets “big losses measured in dollars, and still bigger ones measured in their own currency”, and which is making people so nervous that “a sudden rush for the exits cannot be ruled out completely.”

Bob Janjuah, analyst at the Royal Bank of Scotland, has also advised clients that “A very nasty period is soon to be upon us – be prepared,” which goes along with that bank’s warning that inflation has paralyzed the world’s central banks, and that of a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months looks more and more likely.

And the stupid banks (always the cause of all of economic troubles) are suffering from their own stupidity, and Bill Buckler of The-Privateer.com newsletter notes that “US Banks have suffered $US 391 billion of losses and write-downs from mortgage- related securities since the start of 2007, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg. US banks could lose another $US 300 billion on real estate loans during the year ahead.”

What makes this $691 billion loss so special is that “such losses could jeopardize balance sheets because the US banking system had only $US 1,350 billion of equity capital”. Hahaha! They’ve lost two-thirds of the banks capital! Hahaha! Morons!

Since all things are connected to all things, he says, “the sum of it all is that the entire US banking and financial system is so threadbare, fragile and short of capital that a collapse or crash in one place could knock the underpinnings out from under several other US financial sectors which would take even more down with them. A systemic crash – at any time – is today a distinct possibility.”

This is all in addition to the fact that morons who have kept investing in the American stock market are suffering losses, proving once again that the majority of investors must lose money over the long term. Spengler at atimes.com notes that when he says, “American equity markets show no real capital gains since 1997. That is, an American who bought the equivalent of the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index at $954 in January 1997 and sold today at $1,278 would have exactly the same number of inflation-adjusted dollars.”
Mr. Spengler concludes, “My advice to individual investors? Invest in some popcorn, because the next six months will be something to watch.”

Jim Sinclair of jsmineset.com is more humorously laconic when he says, “You can be sure something really stupid is about to happen.” He might have been referring to me, but I am usually stupid to start with, and so why would he just be mentioning it now? So, I think he means something more sinister. Much more sinister. And ugly. – July 7, 2008

Editor’s Note: Richard Daughty is general partner and COO for Smith Consultant Group, serving the financial and medical communities, and the editor of The Mogambo Guru economic newsletter – “an avocational exercise to heap disrespect on those who desperately deserve it.” The Mogambo Guru is quoted frequently in Barron’s, The Daily Reckoning and other fine publications. Click here to visit the Mogambo archive page.

Letter Re: Advice on Relocation–A Reader Concerned About Local Racism

Mr. Rawles:
I’m a single mother of an 11-year-old living in rural Colorado, with good food and supply stores. I share a house with another single woman who owns it, in a duplex apartment. We have wood heat and national forest out back. We have no firearms. I have no family and I’m on disability, but I have a registered nurse license and keep it up. I honestly do have a very hard time working a job, but would if I had to and realize it may come to that. I have been disabled since a car accident in 2004.
My question is related to race. I’m black. I feel horribly isolated out here and sad all the time. Even church people are cold and distant. I’m afraid to go out and take a walk with my child as people have screamed and thrown things at us. And Colorado isn’t even as bad some other areas. If something happens fast versus a slow emergency and people panic, I think these people would easily seek to hurt my daughter unless we keep hidden.

I want to move to Atlanta (my child was born there and her father is there who would help also), where I could make friends, have Christian fellowship with real Christians, and have some support (emotional) from others and have a chance of doing normal things such as dating.

The problem with Atlanta, is not a worry about gang members, who are actually people too–and in a minority, they would be quickly put down by people such as the Muslims and regular folk if they decide to be aggressive to their own (unlikely other than to other criminals and drug users, and even more unlikely that they’d travel)–but if it is a SHTF situation I worry that areas such as that would simply be cordoned off without supplies and the people within them left to die. I see the average Americans quite capable of this sort of evil (I equate them to Germans in the 1930s and early 1940s) because they don’t seem to think of us as truly :”people” unless we are “exceptions” in their eyes. As a Christian, I think these very prideful, affluent and braggart-type people are the sorts who will be destroyed by the Lord, no matter where they live and how safe they’ve tried to make themselves, not the majority in the inner city as their wisdom has it. The meek will inherit the earth.

My question is whether I should trust in the Lord and move to Atlanta or stick it out in what is an adequate retreat in rural Colorado given my circumstances? Ideally, I would prefer to leave the country, but don’t have the resources to do that.

JWR Replies: Colorado probably won’t be good for you, unless you can join an established “retreat” group there. I am sorry to read that even church people you know are cold and distant. (I would pray that most Christian retreat groups are essentially color blind. They’d be happy to have a member that was of any race if they had years of practical experience as a nurse.)

The Memsahib Adds: Your neighborhood sounds horrible! Is it just one horrible person who screams and throws things? Or are most of your neighbors awful? Whether you stay or move, as a single person without family, black or white, you ought to have as your highest preparedness priority to develop a support group. This may not be a full blown survival group. But it could be people who you could count on if you got snowed in, or your car broke down, or you ran out of firewood. I think that rural people expect mutual aid in times of trouble. Although because of your accident you are not able to work full-time as a nurse, can you volunteer part time as a ministry? For instance could you volunteer at a crisis pregnancy center, at a Vacation Bible School or Camp, or part time at a Christian school or daycare, as a nurse? This would be a way to serve the Lord and let the local community see your value as a nurse. If people in your community are made aware of your skills and training, race might become less of an issue. As for the ugly, ugly, ugly, individuals who don’t think of blacks as truly people, as you say, unless you are “exceptions” in their eyes, maybe they will see you as the exception, which will make you and your daughter safer. Perhaps in the course of volunteering you will develop friendships with the other volunteers. Helping others will help you with feelings of isolation and sadness. (But I have to say, I do think the church today is really failing in hospitality. For example, we have had people in our church say to us that they “would love to have over for a visit”, yet more than a full year has gone by before they set an actual date for the visit!) Another thought is: attend the Bible studies your church offers. When people get to know you as a person, maybe they will not see the color of your skin. It is really a shame that you have to work so hard just because your race. That isn’t the way it ought to be! But, I think this advice applies to any single person. The single person must work extra hard to immerse themselves into the community. You must go out of your way to attend all the community activities and do works of service for your neighbors and church members. Eventually they will start reciprocating. And maybe they will even come to rely on you for certain things. Bit by bit, you will become a part of their social network. And when things go bad they will feel compelled, out of their reciprocal relationship with you, to aid you in your time of trouble. God bless you and your daughter in your upcoming decision on relocation.

JWR Continues: If you do decide to move out of Colorado, then I’d recommend that you move to a more rural portion of the southeastern US than Atlanta! The city of Atlanta and its suburbs will likely be a war zone if and when bad times come. North Georgia is rural and has a lower population density than the communities around Atlanta, but it is already so impoverished that it might not do well in an economic depression. Rather, you should pick a more prosperous yet still agricultural area (preferably with mostly “truck farming”) and with a low population density, that is well away from urban sprawl. It should be well inland to be safe from hurricanes, but no in the primary Tornado Belt. (For example, western Tennessee would be a bad choice.) Just as important is finding a good church home–somewhere that you can be with like-minded folks, of any race.

One clue: Look for small towns (250 to 3,000 population) with one or more church that has a mixed race congregation. Those are the places where people will likely work together rather than divide along racial lines, in the event of a disaster.

Another clue: Look for churches with “Reformed” in their church name. They tend to have a high ratio of preparedness-minded individuals. (And usually sound doctrine, too!)

If you would consider relocating to join an existing retreat group that would value your skills as a nurse, then see the “Finding Others” static page at my site:

With current high food prices, truck farming areas are likely to do well in the next few years. You might consider some of the more rural counties in eastern Tennessee, Missouri, South Carolina, or perhaps north Alabama.

In your situation, since you are unarmed, you are probably best off joining a group where you can benefit from mutual security, and where you can put your medical skills good use with folks that will appreciate them and benefit from your knowledge and experience. Proceed with prayer!

Odds ‘n Sods:

Eric flagged this one: Britain urging return to wartime food frugality

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In doing research on dry climate gardening, Eric also came across a fascinating gardening technique called “Keyhole Gardening“

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SurvivalBlog warned you that this was coming: Fannie, Freddie shares in meltdown on insolvency fears

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Nate sent us the link to some commentary by Mark Gilbert at Bloomberg: Granddad, Tell How Capitalism Committed Suicide

Letter Re: Has Family Preparedness in the U.S. Declined Since 9/11/01?

Dear Mr. Rawles,
I first learned of your blog site through a New York Times article that ran back in April. Since then, I have spent a lot of time on your excellent site, and have followed many of your suggestions. I think the best you’ve made so far is that people read the book “Boston’s Gun Bible“. Mine is now a well thumbed rag doll, but the amount of knowledge contained within is impressive. My larder and defensive cache are coming along nicely.

I want to point out another New York Times article to you: Are You Ready for the Next Disaster? What’s most disturbing [about this article] is that there are actually people out there willing to admit that they are less prepared now then they were before 9/11! That really crystallizes the sort of folks I would include in the term “Golden Horde“–or as we call them in my house, “the zombies”.

Keep up the good work, and thanks for all of your efforts! – Archimedes