Odds ‘n Sods:

Cheryl sent this: How Gardening Became Fashionable Again

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Also courtesy of Cheryl: USA Today Poll: 96% Affirm 2nd Amendment

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Now that I’ve successfully met my manuscript deadline with Penguin Books, I can come up for air. For the first time in many weeks, I’ll have the time for some quasi-recreational reading. I’m about to begin 7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century. (Yes, I’ll post a review.)

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Mike Williamson (our Editor at Large) mentioned that Survivalblog advertiser Shelf Reliance now has a “monthly budget plan”–set up payments with them, and they’ll deliver the goods on your schedule. This is a great way for people with limited financial resources to build up their emergency food supplies without having to save up a
bunch of money all at once. Set up a plan, make payments, get the foodstuffs you want, delivered.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“All over the world, interest rates have been cut and budgets padded. France’s deficit is running at 8% of GDP. England is running a deficit of more than 12% of GDP. And the U.S. is mobilizing as if it had been attacked by Martians. On the credit side, the feds have cut rates more than ever before, for a monetary boost equivalent to 18% of GDP, according to Grant. As to spending, $13 trillion has been pledged…an amount equivalent to a full year’s annual output of the United States of America. This response is three times more (adjusted to today’s dollars) than the U.S. spent to fight WWII. It is 12 times more (relative to GDP) than the total committed to fight the Great Depression.” – Bill Bonner, The Daily Reckoning. May 4, 2009

An Update to the Classic: The Hyperinflation Survival Guide, by OSOM

Published in 1989 to educate US businessmen on how to cope with hyperinflation, Gerald Swanson’s book “The Hyperinflation Survival Guide: Strategies for American Businesses” contains a wealth of lessons for non-business folks as well. If you run a business or have investments, do yourself a favor and read the book. For the rest of us, here is a concise adaptation (and updating) of Swanson’s business lessons for the individual / family.

Hyperinflation is defined as “rapid, debilitating inflation that leads to a major devaluation of a country’s currency”. Argentina, Bolivia, and Brazil in the 1980s were used as case studies to extract lessons for the US. In all cases government overspending, and paying for deficits with printed money is the underlying cause – sound familiar? The fiat money supply supply was grown exponentially, and the foreign exchange value of the currency plummeted. Foreign exchange, and wage / price controls followed.

Are We Facing Hyperinflation Now?
With almost a doubling of the adjusted monetary base since August 2008, serious inflation is already “baked in the cake” as those clever folks at Casey Research put it. The M1 has already spiked 10%.

With ongoing multi-trillion dollar deficits, hyperinflation is a distinct possibility. The prescient economist Dr. Gary North is of the opinion that the Fed will be smart enough to pull back and keep it confined to mass inflation. When push comes to shove, he thinks they will choose a full-blown depression over the horrors of hyperinflation. Of course this assumes no major mistakes from the Fed in a situation where past mistakes, and a rickety mal-investment economy make the path between hyperinflation and depression increasingly narrow. As government regulation, taxation and inflation has distorted the natural order of the economy more and more, the mal-investments made become more and more severe. The endgame is an economy so distorted and arthritic that it can only sink into depression to correct the mal-investment, or be stimulated into hyperinflation. We are a long way down that road – how much further we will go is a matter for debate. Bottom line, the lessons of this little book are worth internalizing, as we are going to have serious inflation – the only question is how much, and for how long. The following are lessons from Swanson’s book:

Time Eats Money
Lesson Numero Uno – keep repeating the mantra “time eats money” – over even short time periods. Ingrain this in your thinking. If you continue to act as you have in the past, your wealth and standard of living will be eaten… Cash in the bank, or currency in hand, is a rapidly depreciating asset – a “hot potato“.
A 1% per month inflation rate means the purchasing power of $100 in the bank or currency is reduced to $88 in one year. But at 10% per month inflation, $100 goes down to $31 in 12 months! At 20%, just 11 cents of purchasing power left.

Tangibles
As Rawles keeps repeating – get out of cash and into tangibles, Tangibles, TANGIBLES.

Get your income into another currency, precious metals, or tangibles EARLY and FAST to preserve purchasing power. (2009 update to the book – are there really any hard currencies left outside of gold and silver? Even the Swiss are inflating now.) Stockpile goods you are sure you will need before they zoom up in price – part of John Pugsley’s Alpha Strategy.

When, and what price you buy at, may become as important to your standard of living as how much money you make. Stockpiling is even more important as governments often resort to the economic snake oil of wage and price controls. This pushes legitimate transactions onto the black market, and cripples the economy with shortages. Don’t expect a normal availability of goods. Low profit margin goods are often the first to disappear, as price controls wipe out the small profit and make production uneconomic. Imported goods will become much more expensive with currency depreciation, and/or largely unavailable with foreign exchange controls. Having your own inventory will help cushion the shortages.

Banking
If you have cash you must shop around and negotiate hard to get a high rate of interest – to at least partially keep up with inflation. Diversifying your deposits over different banks is a good idea as some banks likely will go bankrupt. Even if you are fully reimbursed by the FDIC, you will have lost a lot of purchasing power by the time the bureaucrats cut you a check.

Think REPLACEMENT Cost
Forget historical costs, it’s not what you paid in the past – it’s the REPLACEMENT cost in the future. Example – unless your insurance specifies replacement cost it‘s worthless. Selling anything, you only make a real profit if you cover the replacement cost, plus an inflated profit margin. Budget for what it will cost, not what it costs now.

Decision Making
Once it is underway, inflation can accelerate frighteningly quickly. When money loses value by the day or week there is no time for procrastination. You have to make decisions fast to stay ahead of the curve. Do your research, and make plans NOW. You want to be one of the first to react – not caught in the herd‘s stampede.

Information Sources
You have to pay close attention to foreign exchange rates, and the price of gold and silver to get a handle on what is happening in real time in real markets. Relying on government statistics that only tell you what happened in the past is like driving using your rear view mirror. Even worse, government statistics on inflation are bald-faced lies understating the REAL inflation rate.

Relying on US government numbers is like driving looking backwards – using the side mirror with that little warning “Objects are CLOSER than they appear.”
Stay ahead on the information curve – read Survival Blog daily, and follow Austrian economists who foresaw this crisis, and have made consistently good predictions, e.g.: Gary North, Richard Maybury, and Casey Research. (They all offer a lot of valuable, free information to motivate you to become a subscriber.)

Your Job
Your wages will probably NOT keep up with inflation:
You get a cost of living increase to catch up on last year’s inflation, so you are always playing catch-up
The actual inflation rate is accelerating so you never get a full catch-up on the rate.
You will probably not get a full cost of living raise from your employer due to the fact that they are being hurt financially as well.
Your cost of living will probably be based on government statistics which understate the true rate of inflation.
Combine all this with possible wage and price controls, and your job income will not maintain your standard of living

Coping Strategies:
Get paid by your employer weekly or even daily so you can get your earnings into tangibles right away before more purchasing power is lost. When inflation really gets rolling, even a week or day’s delay can be significant. Keep contract periods short so you can renegotiate as needed.
Try to get your pay increases tied to something real in a free market – an interest rate, foreign exchange rate on the real (“black“) market, or the price of gold or silver. Be prepared to document the basis for your request with hard evidence.
Become more valuable to your employer now. Non-essential staff will often lose their jobs. Gary North, to his credit, hammers on this theme relentlessly – “Fireproof Your Job”

You will need to be constantly negotiating with your employer about pay raises, and payment schedules to try and keep up with inflation. Be a model employee if you want your employer to help you when they are under extreme stress. Imagine trying to get a raise of more than the official inflation rate the government admits to… – “not gonna happen” unless you are a vital part of the team. Similarly, if wage controls are slapped on – you will be asking your employer to get very creative about working around regulations to compensate you – you had better be worth it…

Credit – Forget It!
Even if available, the interest rate will be horrific. Who wants to lend money that is paid back with dollars depreciated at an unknown, but accelerating, inflation rate? You’re probably on your own to finance purchases. If you have any variable rate debt, e.g., credit cards, get rid of it now before the interest rate is jacked up. Your income will probably not keep up to make the payments. If you are owed any money, better collect it fast (and have a high interest rate to at least partially compensate for projected future inflation).

On the bright side, your pre-hyperinflation fixed-rate mortgage can be easily paid off with gold or depreciated dollars – if you still have an income that has even partially kept up with inflation. Who said hyperinflation wasn’t fun? It’s great to be a previously indebted homeowner – until the riots hit your neighborhood.

Seriously, the good news is that forewarned, and acting on the knowledge, you have a big head start to survive financially, when most folks are being wiped out. You must take big, speculative risks if you want to profit, but coming out the other side with most of what you have now is a good goal, and will put you far above average.
I‘m not so optimistic about the larger society, or world in general. Read FerFAL’s blog. [JWR Adds this Proviso: Be advised that there is some crude language at his site, and some anti-Semitic statements.]

FerFAL’s blog will give you an idea of what economic desperation did to the crime rate in Argentina. Being in a safer place, with good security, and a strong team is advisable.

The truly scary part of a hyperinflation is that wiping out the life savings of the middle class tends to erode their moral base and the foundations of society. This often results in scapegoat wars, and guys like Hitler becoming more popular. To get a feel for Weimar Germany, read When Money Dies

As they say, history doesn’t repeat exactly, but it often rhymes, and we aren’t starting off with an overabundant moral base…

Retreat, Barn and Shop Building Resources From Uncle Howard’s

The Uncle Howard’s web site doesn’t come right out and say “Hey, these buildings make a great place to store your preparedness gear!” or “Be sure to ask about our bullet-proofing upgrades!”, but Howard is all about filling the needs of land owners that want to build. There are plenty of off-the-shelf models, but they are willing to have extended conversations to get a one-of-a-kind perfect-fit design. Uncle Howard’s has a drafting department that takes a conceptual sketch all the way to engineered and stamped plans to satisfy buyer with specific needs.

The site has some general information stuff that would be helpful to anyone looking at a construction project, even if they choose a different company, such as their Glossary (What do you call walkway along the top of a wall?) They also have some very informative FAQs. (What is the difference between engineered plans and “wet stamped” engineered plans?), and links to sites for each state so you can find your local info, for permitting, equipment rental, etc. I highly recommend the printable Homework page(Quick: which seismic zone are you?) and the Total Cost Estimator which helps you run through the total cost of the project, not just the structure. (Did you remember the outhouse for your workers?)

If yo ‘re thinking about building, you’ll find a whole lot of great information and planning ideas. Oh and if you do call to ask about their floor plans or kits, be sure to mention that you read about Uncle Howard’s on SurvivalBlog, because they have sales, discounts, and offers that don’t always get posted to their web site.

Two Letters Re: A Practical Tip on Using Roof Catchment Rainwater

JWR:
In response to today’s post, I would like to offer an alternate method to avoid going outside in the rain to flip the value after five minutes.

Cut the down drain pipe into about 5 feet from the discharge elbow. At the elbow end install a blank over the opening. Drill a small hole in the blank, perhaps 1/8th inch diameter, and reattached the outlet ducting to a container to catch the runoff.

At the above cut in the drain pipe, install a “T” and an ell to move the water downward into a barrel.

[During each fresh rain shower,] the pipe that is blanked off should hold the initial water that would contain bird droppings and other unpleasant things before it starts to run out the “T” above into the clean water receptacle. This method gives you clean water for drinking and dirty water for the garden. Of course run your clean water through the Berkey before drinking.

I wish I could take credit for this method, but the thanks will have to go to Mel Tappan. – JH in Arkansas

 

Jim,
I found a rainwater diverter that looks interesting. It can be turned on and off in seconds so you can let the first few minutes of rain wash the bird poop off the roof before you start collecting water. I imagine with a rain sensor and a little effort, it could be made to start diverting water automatically a few minutes after it starts raining. – Matt R.

Mexican Flu Update:

Top Flu Expert Warns of a Swine-Bird Flu Mix

12 More Swine Flu Cases Confirmed in Massachusetts

First Flu Death in Canada; US Cases Rise

Mexico Deaths; Cases Higher than Reported

Swine Flu May Be More Infectious than Thought

Swine Flu Moments and Decisions Lie Ahead

WHO Reports Big Jump in Worldwide Swine Flu Cases 3,440 Cases, 29 Countries, 48 Deaths

Japan, Oz Confirm First Cases of Swine Flu

Swine Flu Lacks 1918 Killer Traits (So Far)

US, Costa Rica Flu Deaths Mexico has suspected upswing in cases, delaying school reopening in six states

Number of American Flu Cases Overtake Mexico’s; Now Almost 3,000

Economics and Investing:

Now, the truth comes out: Banks Won Concessions on Tests. I figured the “tests” were rigged, but not quite so blatantly. And here are some more details on the “Buddy-Buddy” Creative Accounting: Fed cut banks’ deficits after negotiations: report. (Thanks to Roger Y. for the links.)

Reader D.D. sent his one: Next challenge for banks: Credit card losses Number usually tracks unemployment, but this time it may be worse

Items from The Economatrix:

Global Financial & Economic Crisis: How Much Time Do We Have Left? “The US-Dollar has been technically hyper inflated, even though no one is saying “the king is nude!!”… Not yet, anyway…”

Imminent Global Stock Market Crash to Support US Dollar

The Clock is Ticking on the US Dollar and Bond Markets

BofE Braces For Third Wave of Financial Crisis

Desperate Baby Boomers Return to Work

Peter Schiff: Don’t Be Fooled By Inflation

Short Sales: Banks Block Way Out of Foreclosure Crisis

Experts Say GM Bankruptcy is Almost Inevitable

Real Estate Crash Shifting to Commercial Properties

Welcome to the Frozen Economy This is a flashback of a piece from July of 2008. It shows how tough the times were in Maine then, before the big crash. Very interesting reading. “My neighbors are like deer caught in the headlights: frozen in fear as something sinister, implacable, and wholly unanticipated lurches toward them. A reckoning has begun to unfurl like a dark flower, slowly at first, then gathering urgency and force. This is not a short detour after all, but an untraveled road to an unknown place from which there is no return, no escape…and we are not prepared.”

On The Subject of Bottoms “Also worth noting is the fact that the yield curve is steepening in the U.S. and in other countries where governments are cranking up the printing presses, signaling that investors are losing faith in those who control the public purse strings.”

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"We have no government armed with power capable of contending with human passions unbridled by morality and true religion. Our constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other." – John Adams

Odds ‘n Sods:

Only in America! The Weaponizers (A hat tip to KAF for the link.)

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I heard that Midwest Outfitters just received just under one full pallet of 5.56 NATO 55 grain FMJ (“ball”), fresh 2008-production ammo. This ammo is newly-manufactured to military specifications by Bitteroot Valley Ammunition Components in Montana.This is not re-manufactured but made with all new components. The head stamp on this batch is BVAC 08 and the NATO symbol. Right now, just for SurvivalBlog readers they are offering a case of 1,000 rounds for $500 with Free Shipping. At last count, they had only 83 cases left.

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I heard from Gary up in Montana that clones of the recently-enacted “Made in Montana” guns bill are about to be introduced in the legislatures in Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arizona, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho and Washington. Yee haw!

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Reader PNG mentioned the DHS Radiation Event Medical Management web site. PNG noted: “The [content of the ] entire site can be downloaded for Windows, Mac, Unix, Linux, etc.:nd a subset of the site can be downloaded for PDAs and many smart phones.”

Notes from JWR:

For SurvivalBlog readers that are conversant auf Deutsch, there was a review of my novel in the widely-read Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) newspaper: Amerikanischer Bestseller: „Patriots“ Wie das Ende unserer Welt zu überleben ist.

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The high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction. is now at $1,100. This auction ends in just four days. It is for a large mixed lot, which includes:

1.) A Three-Color Desert Camo Interceptor OTV (Outer Tactical Vest) size XL only, and a spare Woodland camouflage outer shell, kindly donated by BulletProofME.com. These items have a combined retail value of $960!

2.) A vehicle detection system, which includes: one MURS Alert Probe Sensor (MAPS) with 50 foot probe cable and one MURS Alert Hand Held (M538-HT) transceiver. The MAPS unit’s probe can be covertly installed under the surface of a driveway or road to detect vehicular traffic and a voice alert is sent to the hand held transceiver when a detection occurs. Donated by MURS Radio. Retails for $303

3.) Two cases of Yoder’s Canned Bacon, courtesy of CampingSurvival.com. (12 cans per case.) A $276 retail value.

4.) A NukAlert compact radiation detector donated by at KI4U.com (a $160 retail value). 

5.) Three Garden Security Collections, and two Garden Bean Collections, donated by SeedForSecurity.com. With included free shipping to any US postal address, this is a $100+ retail value.

6.) Two America Stone knife sharpeners (with belt pouches), donated by the manufacturer. (A $60 retail value.)

Thus, this auction has a combined value in excess of $1,800. This auction ends on May15th. Please e-mail us your bid. Your bid will be for the entire mixed lot.

Letter Re: An Expedient Manual Clothes Washer

Mr. Rawles:

How about washing clothes without electricity? One way that works fairly well is to take 5-to-6 gallon plastic buckets and cut a small hole in the center of the lid just big enough for a toilet plunger. Fill 3/4 ways with water add soap (you did remember laundry soap for a year right?) add clothes for about one person pants, shirt t-shirt, under wear and socks, plunged for 1 minute let soak for 5 minutes plunge again for 10 seconds. Dump out water, fill with fresh water again plunge for 1 minute dump out, fill again with clean water plunge for 1 minute dump out. Hand wring the clothes, hang out to dry or hang near wood stove in the winter to dry.

Clothes washing was something I had thought about. I was going to buy one of those old fashioned double tub sinks to wash clothes outside. The “bucket method” sounds much easier AND I already have all of the items I need.

I did think of a few things to do in addition to this. Here is how I plan to use this method. There are three in my family, so we will have three buckets and three plungers. On wash day each person will have their own bucket. The person with the cleanest clothes gets water and soap first and does the above. That water is put in the next cleanest person’s bucket and then that water goes into the dirtiest bucket. By cycling the water down the chain, we should be able to use much less water. Of course the dirtiest bucket would get an extra rinse job. We will also have laundry soap that will not harm plants, so we will use the water for the garden.

I have become an avid reader of your site. I’ve gotten more helpful information from your posters than many books and sites I have used for years. They seem stuck at the basics and have never moved on to fine tuning. Thanks for your work. – Jennifer G.

Letter Re: A Practical Tip on Using Roof Catchment Rainwater

Jim
There are simple old time solutions to the possible problem of collecting and using “polluted” roof gathered rain water.

Add a splitter, (an upside down Y shaped piece of pipe), to the downspout before the pipe runs into your cistern or rain barrel. One side of the “Y” goes to your catchment, the other to the ground or drain. Add a simple flip value to the inside of the splitter. During the first 5 minutes of any rain, turn or flip the valve to run the water out onto the ground or into the usual drain. Once the roof and gutters, (and air), have been washed clean of any dirt, debris or pollution, flip the value over to fill the rain barrel or cistern. Keep the barrel or cistern tightly covered so animals or mosquitoes can’t get in. At least once a year completely drain the barrel or cistern and scrub clean with bleach and water. Rinse well and drain. Then refill. This ensures a clean supply of “soft” water that should be safe to drink, (and incidentally is especially good for using in steam irons and washing hair ). – Jim Fry, Curator, Museum of Western Reserve Farms & Equipment, Ohio

Three Letters Re: Deer Ticks – The Threat Within Your Perimeter

Jim,
Good post about Lyme Disease today. I live in Connecticut and caught Lyme in 1995. Took me years of antibiotics to get it into remission. Also, please note that on 50% of people get the classic “bulls eye” rash. I didn’t, and as a result I was misdiagnosed for five months while it established itself in my neurological system.

I recently purchased some special undergarments from Rynoskin which the ticks and other bugs can’t get though. Maybe some of your readers would be interested. Cabela’s sells their own version, called Bugskins but I’m not as familiar with it.

Keep up the great work. I enjoy the blog out here in Blue country!
All the best, – Joe from Connecticut

 

James:

I found your post on deer ticks and Lyme Disease of much benefit. I would like to share with you a brief account of a man I knew who contracted a very peculiar illness. He suffered from severe malaise (general weakness) which was misdiagnosed by the local doctors a number of times.He was diagnosed with anything ranging from influenza to Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever and even cancer. As it turned out, he had Lyme disease contracted via a deer tick

His symptoms were not much different from what Bill S. described in his letter but apparently at the time, it was not recognized for what it was. there was as much early suspicion of Lyme disease as there is now.
My point is that we cannot be too cautious when it comes to our health. even with competent doctors, things can get missed.
This gentlemen endured quite a long recovery, partly due to lack of early recognition and partly because Lyme disease is a nasty one. It was years before he was “right” again. – M.D.T.

 

Hello Mr. Rawles,
The definitive studies on ticks were concluded in Oklahoma some 30 years ago, in detailed deer habitat/population studies. (See the reference below.) The results of the studies indicated that 90% of the ticks occur only in a small portion of the outdoor habitat. Perhaps as little as 5% of the habitat. That particular habitat is the area where deer bed down regularly.

I live on five acres and in contact with the vegetation outside daily, in waist high shrubs, knee high grass and under some heavy growth of trees. Rarely do I find a tick on me, here in western Oklahoma.

Generally the potential occurrence for ticks on humans is overstated. Because people simply do not regularly pass through, work in or visit the bedding areas of deer.

This does not however belittle the fact that just one tick can pass to a human a disease condition that can impact health negatively. Fear of ticks from outside activities is generated when warnings are described to the public. If you stay away from deer bedding areas your chances of having a tick transfer to you are very low.

The other environmental condition for ticks to gravitate to is a yard with outside penned dogs. Watering tanks serviced by windmills or solar pumps for livestock will also be used by deer, bobcats, coyotes and many small mammals. Watering places frequently will have over runs of water leaving behind pools of water on the ground.
These areas may have higher concentrations of ticks.

Beat the odds:

  • Always inspect yourself for ticks after being outside.
  • If you have an outside dog in a fenced yard treat the dog’s sleeping area with insecticides.
  • Stay out of deer bedding habitat.

But for the first time in more than a year yesterday I picked a crawling tick off of my neck heading for the hairline.

If in a bugout situation stay away from deer bedding areas for sleeping or rest stops. You can spot these areas. The deer will leave behind a mashed down area of vegetation [usually] in brush and/or under low trees. You can also see the imprint of where deer rest and sleep under trees where there is less vegetation.
Distinctive well-used trails will lead to these areas.

Type of habitat that is based on ecological descriptions of a community of plants have a significant effect on the ability of ticks to maintain a population of individuals.

Reference: White-Tailed Deer Utilization of Three Different Habitats and Its Influence on Lone Star Tick Populations, by Carl D. Patrick and Jakie A. Hair, The Journal of Parasitology, Vol. 64, No. 6 (Dec., 1978), pp. 1100-1106. Published by: The American Society of Parasitologists

Understanding ticks is more complex than just understanding the potential for disease transmission. Cordially,- JWC in Oklahoma