Letter Re: Recommended Preparedness Focus for a Dentist in Kansas?

Dear Sir,
It was James Howard Kunstler who alerted me to the problems that has caught so many other people unawares in early 2002. Alas, although we’re light years ahead of our fellow citizens in terms of preparedness, we’re many parsecs behind the majority of your readers! We do have about six months of food on hand (which keeps growing each day), plus containers for water storage and filters for water purification. We have some basic medical supplies. Our “battery” has been augmented including the storage of several hundreds (although not thousands yet) of rounds of ammunition. Soon, I’ll have a basic reloading set up. I’ve been buying whatever high-quality tools I can find, whether it’s a 1930s #8 Stanley plane or a King of Spades shovel. Our organic garden is growing each year. We’re not squeamish so we’ll probably be gray-watering and humanuring as soon as it is feasible. My wife is a green thumb and is becoming an expert on foraging: she knows every edible plant/mushroom in Kansas!

So all hope isn’t lost but there is so much to be done. Which brings me to my point: thanks ever so much for this incredible resource!
But I have one question: knowing the little that you do about us (family of four, in rural Kansas, slightly-prepared but not much) what would you recommend as being our first priority? What products/skills should I spend the next year focusing upon? Thanks again, – SF, DDS, in Kansas

JWR Replies: My recommendation, particularly for anyone living in the Plains States and most of the western US is that water should be your top priority, including roof downspout rain barrel conversions, and locating any nearby creeks or reservoirs where you can collect water, and the means to transport and treat it, even if you are ling “Grid Down” and don’t have gasoline available to operate motor vehicles for hauling water..

In the next year, take advantage of as much free and low cost training as your schedule permits. (Red Cross, WRSA, et cetera.) Next, move on to more sophisticated training, as your budget permits. (Medical Corps, Front Sight, OnPoint Tactical, et cetera.)

Since you are a dentist, you might think in terms of operating a minimalist general dentistry and dental surgery practice without grid power. Stock up on expendable supplies. Search for old-fashioned/alternative equipment. Buy a full-up photovoltaic power system if you can afford it. You might even be able to find a foot-powered dental drill. These are now considered museum pieces, except in the Third World, where they are still in limited use.

As I’ve previously mentioned in SurvivalBlog, I have some very strong reservations about the humanure approach. To be done safely, it takes very close temperature monitoring, and that might prove difficult in a grid-down post-collapse environment. I also consider it unfeasible for handing waste at a remote retreat that is only occupied for part of each year. (Ideally, it would best done at a rural farm or ranch that has at least five residents that are living there year-round.) In my opinion the risks far outweigh the rewards for most of us.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Craig R. Smith of Swiss America asks: Will government bailouts spell end of dollar? (A hat tip to Jack in Texas for the link)

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TheOtherRyan over at TSLRF (one of the eight-or-so blogs that I read frequently) posted a succinct and commonsense list: 10 commandments for buying gold and silver

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One of my “Secret Squirrel” contributors mentioned that because the price of 128 MB and 256 MB USB memory sticks (aka “jump drives” or “USB thumb drives”) has dropped to less than $2 each, readers that want to contribute any articles or lengthy letters to SurvivalBlog can now do so more anonymously, by simply snail mailing them in MS-Word format or RTF loaded on a “stick”. Just tape them onto folded a piece of stiff cardboard and use a standard size envelope. This way there will be no e-mail trail. It will also save me many hours of laboriously keying-in hard copy articles, and eliminate the risk of transcription errors. My only special request is that because of software compatibility issues, please be sure to send multiple copies of the files on the stick in various formats, including plain text (“TXT”), Rich Text Format (“.RTF”), and Microsoft Word (“.MSW”). Once I’ve copied and then deleted the files, I will pass those sticks along to soldiers deployed in Afghanistan and Iraq. (I’ll pack them in my regular Any Soldier program gift boxes.) Our current mail forwarding address is: Jim Rawles, P.O. Box 303, Moyie Springs, Idaho 83845. Thanks!

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Eric mentioned this piece in The Toronto Sun: Head for the hills–U.S. economy collapsing under debt

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Cheryl N. (SurvivalBlog’s Economic Editor) sent us some more news and commentary that she gleaned from her web research: Gov’t, Wall Street Race To Save Lehmans—Bailout for Lehman Not Likely—Warning: 30 Airlines Will Go Bust This Year—August Foreclosures: Another Record High—US Housing Bear Market Nowhere Near Bottom—Lehman Brothers teeters on verge of collapse as Barclays pulls out

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“…we have yet to see a genuine effort by our national security leaders to engage the public to frankly and openly inform them on where we face major threats, how best the community should better protect itself and improve risk reduction measures. In fact the reverse is true: a range of government reports relating to Australia’s ability to respond to large-scale emergencies have been embargoed on the grounds that to share that information with the public would only serve to frighten people.” – Australian Strategic Policy Institute Strategic Insights Newsletter # 39 – Taking a punch: Building a more resilient Australia

Notes from JWR:

Our prayers go out for the citizens of Texas. Hurricane Ike made landfall with quite a wallop. More than four million people are expected to be without utility power for days or perhaps weeks. Thankfully, it has been downgraded to a tropical storm, but as of this writing it is still doing damage as it makes its way through Texas.

It is gratifying to see how much the SurvivalBlog readership has grown, particularly in Australia and New Zealand, and Indonesia. Welcome aboard! BTW, we are actively looking for correspondent in Australia and Indonesia, to keep us up to date on political, economic, and social issues related to preparedness. Like our other correspondents, you’d only be in it for the glory, plus the occasional free book or sample product.

The SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction ends tomorrow night at midnight, eastern time. The high bid is now at $570. The auction for a mixed lot that includes: Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans, (donated by Ready Made Resources–a $320 value), a NukAlert radiation detector, (donated by KI4U–a $160 value), a Wilson Tactical COP tool, (donated by Choate Machine and Tool Company, a $140 value), a DVD of 480 E-books on Alternative Energy (donated by WK Books–a $25 value). Please e-mail us your bid soon.

Letter Re: Generating Photovoltaic Power When Grid Power is Available

Jim:
I agree completely with your comment that [photovoltaic] solar systems should not be grid-tied to run the meter backward [to isolate the photovoltaic system from potentially devastating coupled electromagnetic pulse (EMP).]

When the grid is available to home or retreat, I believe it is worth connecting. It is the easiest way to deal with barns, 220 volt tools and wells, but some thought to solar wiring can go a long way. Many custom homes and retreats were built with home-run wiring before the price of wire jumped so high. A number of these homes and retreats can be solar-controlled simply by DPDT switching circuit wiring at the fuse box.

Think of two modes – solar when the grid is up and solar when the grid is down. The thing many people have not thought through is how to utilize their solar power when the grid is up and they make the lazy choice to grid-tie to realize the value from their solar system. Grid-up, I run a server and a large desktop computer from solar. Grid-down, I only run my laptop and have to control my well (dual 110 volt inverters) versus my refrigerator and chest freezer so they do not run at the same time. Grid-up, all my barns, refrigeration and 220 VAC is on the grid and most other 110 VAC is off-grid. When I leave the property, the grid tie is broken (I don’t need the well then.) and all phantom loads, lighting and refrigeration are solar run.

All my computers are hooked to my computer network by wireless cards. My television is wireless as well. This was very difficult to do because I have Charter [Communications, Inc.] high-definition cable [television service.] It took a broad-band wireless repeater between the converter box and the television. My solar system utilizes all available solar power and protects me fairly well from EMP. My home/retreat has well-insulated metal siding and metal roof for some added fire and EMP protection. – SAR

Letter Re: A Resource on Make-It-Yourself Backpacking Gear

Hello,
I came across this web site and thought I’d send you the link to a page at Backpacking.net: Make Your Own Gear! I can’t even sew my shirt buttons back on, but maybe it would be of use to other readers. [JWR Adds: Don’t miss the individual plans in the left hand bar.]

By the way, I gave your novel a good review on Amazon.com. Most everybody did. But I included a motivational quote in it that really means a lot to me. I heard it from an Amway tape many years ago:
“I will do today what others will not do, so I can do tomorrow what others cannot do”. I think it really speaks the survival mindset.

Have a great day, – Rod McG.

Odds ‘n Sods:

SurvivalBlog reader “Cyberiot” mentioned that readers with concerns about pandemic flu may be interested in a new and growing online storybook sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). “Pandemic Influenza Storybook: Personal Recollections from Survivors, Families, and Friends” includes first-person accounts of the 1918 and 1957 flu pandemics. Readers are encouraged to contribute their own recollections. Speaking of flu pandemics, earlier this year, New Scientist magazine published a detailed analysis of how a 1918-scale influenza pandemic would affect the US economy.

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I’ve heard from a reader that he plans to attend the ASPO Peak Oil Conference in Sacramento, California, later this month. When you attend events like these, please wear a SurvivalBlog t-shirt or hat, or carry one of our tote bags or messenger bags. You may be surprised who you bump into! (And we need all the publicity we can get.)

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Range Rat sent us this article: Survey finds holes in US disaster preparedness. Range Rat’s comment: I think they are trying to go against basic human nature trying to get parents to evacuate without their children. No wonder 63% won’t go along with the plan. I’m shocked that 37% said that they would!

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Our Economic Editor sent us another raft of news and commentary: The Feds Are Running Scared, Feds Considering Bringing Fannie, Freddie On To Budget, “Let Them Eat Cake”, Pareto’s Bazooka, Calling US Bonds Home, Deployed to the Dole Line (The Mogambo Guru), Stop the Bailout, Bailouts Will Push US Into Depression, WaMu Downgraded to D+, and BofA Says Losses Have Shifted to Commercial Loans.

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John Embry comments on the coming bounce in precious metals prices: When gold is gone, market will go nuts. I concur that the price of gold is currently undervalued. It is a good time to buy physical gold! (Buying junior gold mining shares is much more risky, but the potential profits are larger.)

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"He answered and said unto them, When it is evening, ye say, It will be fair weather: for the sky is red. And in the morning, It will be foul weather to day: for the sky is red and lowering. O ye hypocrites, ye can discern the face of the sky; but can ye not discern the signs of the times?" – Matthew 16:2-3

Notes from JWR:

Note from JWR:

I was saddened to hear that Chuck Karwan passed away last week, following open heart surgery. He was an exemplary American, a USMA West Point graduate (1969) that served in Vietnam and elsewhere (1st Calvary Division (Airmobile), 5th Infantry Division (Mechanized), and the 5th and 10th Special Forces Groups), and was a noted writer on knives and military firearms. He will be missed, especially by his friends in Oregon.

The SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction ends tonight (September 15th) at midnight, eastern time. The high bid is now at $580. The auction for a mixed lot that includes: Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans, (donated by Ready Made Resources–a $320 value), a NukAlert radiation detector, (donated by KI4U–a $160 value), a Wilson Tactical COP tool, (donated by Choate Machine and Tool Company, a $140 value), a DVD of 480 E-books on Alternative Energy (donated by WK Books–a $25 value). Please e-mail us your bid, ASAP.

Note from JWR:

A SurvivalBlog reader in northwestern Alabama wrote me to mention that he witnessed the local price of gasoline jump $.70 per gallon overnight (to $5.35 per gallon.) This presumably, was in anticipation of a disruption in supply because of Hurricane Ike. It bears mentioning that many SurvivalBlog readers wisely have at-home underground gas and diesel tanks. Among other benefits, these allows them to ride out the ravages of occasional price spikes like this one, in which even wholesale gasoline jumped to over $5 per gallon! It is starting to look pretty C.C.R.-ish out there. (As the song goes: “Hope you have got your things together.” and “Looks like we’re in for nasty weather.”)

The Lehman Brothers Debacle Illustrates the Extent of the Global Credit Collapse

You probably saw yesterday’s headline in The Wall Street Journal: Lehman Races to Find a Buyer. Well, well. The once mighty Lehman Brothers Holdings firm had a market capitalization of $47 Billion last year. But when I last looked, it was down to a paltry $2.58 billion. The company is now definitely on the ropes. It is likely that the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) is going to grow even larger. There will probably be an announcement made this weekend of a “private” takeover of Lehman–possibly including an overseas “white knight”–but down in the fine print we will learn that the deal will all be guaranteed (directly or more likely indirectly) with funds from either the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Treasury. (For now, Federal officials assert that they are merely “helping” to arrange a private sale.) Does this sound reminiscent of the Goldman Sachs bailout, around this time last year? Methinks they’ll use the same mechanism.

Stepping back a bit, it is apparent that the Lehman Brothers debacle is merely symptomatic of a global credit market that is badly broken. Liquidity has dried up more than at any time in living memory, and companies are desperate for working capital. The Lehman failure will not be the last collapse of an investment bank, nor the largest. In my estimation, the liquidity collapse will continue, taking down some of the titans of Wall Street, in the process. As assets collapse in value, creditworthiness shrinks, and margin calls are made, in a widening death spiral. I believe that it is very likely that in the months to come, you will hear of huge derivatives failures, with vanishing counterparties leaving the other half of the “perfectly balanced risk sharing” model twisting in the breeze. There will be huge hedge funds that go belly-up, leaving their investors with little or nothing. First will come word of hedge fund redemption suspensions, followed by news of fund collapses, followed by news of pennies on the dollar settlements, or perhaps no pay-outs whatsoever. Keep in mind that these funds are not FDIC insured, so hedge fund investors could lose everything.

Watching this slow-moving avalanche will be agonizing, and last for years. As I’ve written before, it will be impossible to predict when it will end, because nobody can gauge where the “bottom” is, as entire asset classes lose more and more value. Up until now, most of the media attention has been focused on residential real estate. But for more than a year, I’ve been waiting for the other shoe to drop: commercial real estate. As the recession continues and companies tighten their belts and begin laying off employees in earnest, a drop in commercial real estate is inevitable. Next we’ll hear of stock market declines, and perhaps a full scale collapse of share prices. Then will come municipal bond failures, and both private and public pension fund failures.

Depending on how long the downward cycle continues, this could make the Great Depression of the 1930s seem mild, by comparison.

Be ready. Be prepared to lose your job. Now might be the time to think in terms of secondary streams of income. Build up a home-based business so that you will be able to meet your basic needs and pay your property taxes. If you haven’t done so already, then get out of debt. Free up as much cash as possible by selling your collectibles, your vacation property, and your “Big Boy Toys”. (What is more important: to you? Your neighbors admiring a fancy Jet Ski in your carport, or feeding your family?) Sell your sports car, and buy a beat-up ut mechanically sound Saturn or Toyota Corolla. Cash out of most of your US dollar-denominated investments. After paying down your debts, put the cash that is generated into a one year storage food supply and some practical, liquid tangibles. It is essential that you do not hesitate. If you wait another few months, the prices of “fru-fru” collectibles will plummet. Sell them now, while they are still worth something. Prepare and stand ready to provide for your family, regardless of what happens beyond your control. It is your responsibility to prepare.

The Memsahib Adds: In the context of all this talk of gloom and doom, I must add that it is important to maintain balance, perspective, and a positive Christ-centered outlook. Take time daily to enjoy the blessings of your family and friends. Don’t obsess on the darker aspect of the “what if?” future to the point that you stop enjoying life and make those around you miserable. Husbands in particular, take note: Prepare so that you can provide for your families, but don’t forget to enjoy the blessings that we enjoy in the present day. Keep in mind Ecclesiastes 9:7-9:
“Go then, eat your bread in happiness and drink your wine with a cheerful heart; for God has already approved your works.
Let your clothes be white all the time, and let not oil be lacking on your head.
Enjoy life with the woman whom you love all the days of your fleeting life which He has given to you under the sun; for this is your reward in life and in your toil in which you have labored under the sun.”

Letter Re: A SurvivalBlog Reader Prepares for Hurricane Ike

Dear Mr. Editor:

Just a quick note to tell you how people that read your blog are preparing for Ike. Thanks for all the great information.

I live near Houston in the suburbs, about 60 miles north of Galveston. Most of the stores are open and have plenty of water, drinks, bread, tuna and other canned foods. The stores have done a much better job this time of keeping needed items in stock than they did when Katrina was headed this way a couple years ago. The gas is going fast, and many stations are closed. I filled both my vehicles Thursday morning in preparation for the storm, even though I am not leaving. I expect a lot of rain and wind, but little rising water this far inland. Thanks to you, I am prepared. I have all my bottled water, food, flashlights, batteries, generator, extra fuel, tools and tarps, first aid kit, my bug out bag and firearms ready. We have copies of all our important papers and photo’s on DVD, along with extra cash and computer backup’s in the gun safe. We have secured our home as best we can and picked up anything outside that could be blown by the wind. I understand from other people that if someone wants your generator they just come and take it even at gun point. That will not happen here. I am a Life member of the NRA if that tells you something. Thanks again. Best Regards, – A Loyal Reader in Texas

Letter Re: National Geographic’s Cover Story on Soil and Food

JWR,
Here’s a link to the September 2008 National Geographic cover story about the world’s fragile soils and their diminishing capacity to feed 6.5 billion+ people as well as cautionary examples of places where the soils can no longer support the existing population due to poor stewardship in the past.

Pages 92-93 of the hardcopy edition have a great fold out map showing soil fertility areas around the world — a good retreats and relocation general shopping reference (although certainly not detailed enough for researching specific properties). My Best, – Lee in Hurricane Alley

Letter Re: An E-Mailed SurvivalBlog Digest?

Sir,
I would like to sign up to get your blogs [via e-mail]; but I can’t see where I do that; Could you please help me. Thanks, – Dianne M.

JWR Replies: For the privacy of my readers, I don’t have a digest of my blog that is e-mailed. (I don’t like to keep lists. I don’t even keep records of anyone that makes a voluntary subscription donation.) Just direct your web browser whenever you’d like to read SurvivalBlog. It is updated daily (and I haven’t missed a day since the blog was started three years ago), so you might want to make it your browser’s “home” page, so that you’ll be able to read all of the useful articles, letters, and quotes.

Odds ‘n Sods:

U.K. state memo warns of “anarchy” in the city streets. (Thanks to Florida Guy for the link.)

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Yishai flagged this for us, from The Morning Brief: “This could be the mother of year-ends,” Brian Sack, of Macroeconomic Advisers and a former Federal Reserve chief market analyst, tells Bloomberg, which says the Fed may have to increase the cash it provides to banks and brokers beyond already-record levels to help them balance their books at the end of the year in the wake of six bank failures in the past two months and rising concern about Lehman’s capital levels. Lenders’ borrowing costs may climb further as companies rush for cash to settle trades and buttress their balance sheets at year-end, Bloomberg says. Meanwhile,

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Reader John S. mentioned that Interordnance currently has a couple of bargains for folks that like to stock up on barter items in quantity: HK G3 (HK91) alloy magazines for $1 each if you buy 1,000 or more, and crates of 20 re-arsenalized Mosin Nagant 91/30 bolt action 7.62x54r rifles for $1,100 per crate. John notes: “This might be a good deal for a group that wanted to have extra inexpensive bolt action rifles on hand to pass out to others for defense purposes.” An FFL is required for ordering the rifles. BTW, anyone looking for pre-1899 bolt actions that do not require an FFL should contact The Pre-1899 Specialist (one of our loyal advertisers) or Empire Arms.

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Eric spotted this one from MarketWatch: Foreclosures.com Reports More Than 100,000 Homeowners Lost Homes in August; One Million Foreclosures Expected in 2008

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Thanks to EMBW for the link to a Popular Mechanics article on hidden spaces.