Letter Re: Societal Collapse: The Albanian Experience (Circa 1997)

Mr. Rawles,
I’m a new SurvivalBlog reader, and your blog goes along a lot with many of my own thoughts and precautions; things many people these days consider ridiculous, but that an old instructor of mine (from a gov’t agency that shall go unnamed) would probably call “maintaining a healthy level of paranoia”.

In browsing your blog and its archives, I have been surprised to find no mention of the Albanian crisis in 1997. I believe that it offers a strong example of how quickly and unexpectedly a (relatively) advanced society can descend into chaos, and how drastic the consequences can be.

For your readers (should you see fit to post this), I’ll sum up. This is very basic information on the subject, and those readers who want to learn more can easily find more detailed info online.

Coming out from under the Iron Curtain, Albania was a fairly well-ordered nation. Obviously it was much less developed than the Western European nations, but it wasn’t sub-Saharan Africa either. With the fall of communism, new ways of conducting business opened up, and new means of finance came about as well. Over a few years the economy became dominated by Ponzi schemes, and when these collapsed, the nation descended into complete chaos.

That’s the quick and easy version. There are a few relevant things to learn here.

1. The people were taken in by a form of finance that they did not fully understand, or that had implications that they didn’t grasp the magnitude of:
Ponzi schemes are a classic form of financial shenanigans, but don’t dismiss the mistake of the Albanians as hopeless naivete. Ponzi schemes and related “investments” are alive and well today, and while we do have some safeguards against them now, many legal forms of investment can also have severely disruptive effects. Everyone knows about the problems stemming from failure among even the “experts” to grasp the problems in the American financial system, and anyone who thinks that the system is going to become significantly more stable and easily understood in the near future is deluding themselves.

2. The resulting collapse came quickly and was severe:
I believe that from the first indications of collapse to the complete breakdown of society took about a month. When society collapsed, it went really bad, really fast. The most vivid memory in my mind (from news broadcasts, I wasn’t there myself) is of an 11 or 12 year old child leading his younger brother by the hand, with an AK type rifle over his shoulder for defense (or possibly predation). That’s the kind of chaos we’re talking about here. About 2,000 people out of a population of 3 million were killed in the chaos. That’s a fairly small percentage, but it all happened over a month or two. Assuming two months, that’s about a 0.4% fatality rate, if it were annualized (if I’m committing a mathematical or statistical fallacy here please feel free to correct me).

3. The chaos was for a limited time, and order was restored:
Those who survived the initial period of turmoil were able to rebuild. However, before someone looks at examples like these to plan how long they should prepare to hold out for, bear in mind that this was a relatively disarmed society, very small, located near many larger stable nations, and the recipient of an international (UN) stabilizing/peace keeping operation. In a nation like the US, a complete collapse could be more severe, harder for the world to halt or repair, and could in addition cause such severe economic disruption worldwide that no one would be able to help. The point I want to make here is, even if you can’t move full time to the countryside and become self sufficient, you can still make preparations to survive a lot of situations in the short-term. And all things come to an end. There will be bad times to weather, and just as surely they will be followed by less bad times in which to prosper.

Hope this provides helpful food for thought.

May God bless you all, and keep you and yours, – JJ in North Carolina

JWR Replies: I appreciate you reminding our readers of the Albanian Crisis. This did, indeed come very close to a full-scale societal collapse death spiral. In my estimation, the reasons why it didn’t get more prominent attention in the western media was because it took place in what could best be called a “backwater” region, and happened at the same time as the Kosovo crisis, which was considered the “bigger” story. (Read: The news camera crews were busy elsewhere, interviewing people that speak English. It is just human nature for journalists to prefer staying in a nice hotel in Belgrade, rather than some dump in Tirana.) Nor did journalists descend on Albania after the fact, to try to document what had happened. No, they were busy droning on and on about the death of Princess Diana, and the then-pending British handover of Hong Kong.

This timeline and these photos are indicative of what the media failed to properly cover.

Letter Re: Feedback on The American Empire is Bankrupt

JWR:
I was puzzled by the piece by Chris Hedges (The American Empire is Bankrupt, from truthdig.com) that you linked to in Friday’s SurvivalBlog. There are two huge, crucial, inestimable, incredibly fundamental flaws in Hedges’ article:

* One is his assessment of the primary cause of the American national bankruptcy,
* The second is his conclusions as to who will be causing the greatest social disruption in our nation as that bankruptcy starts impacting our daily lives.

First, the fundamental causes of the American bankruptcy. Hedges quotes heavily from an article from & interview by The Financial Times’ Michael Hudson. So that I don’t take anything out of context, here is the text direct from Hedges’ article, mostly quoting Hudson:

  • “The balance-of-payments deficit is mainly military in nature. Half of America’s discretionary spending is military. The deficit ends up in the hands of foreign banks, central banks. They don’t have any choice but to recycle the money to buy U.S. government debt. The Asian countries have been financing their own military encirclement.”
  • “There are three categories of the balance-of-payment deficits. America imports more than it exports. This is trade. Wall Street and American corporations buy up foreign companies. This is capital movement. The third and most important balance-of-payment deficit for the past 50 years has been Pentagon spending abroad. It is primarily military spending that has been responsible for the balance-of-payments deficit for the last five decades.”
  • “To fund our permanent war economy, we have been flooding the world with dollars. The foreign recipients turn the dollars over to their central banks for local currency. The central banks then have a problem.”

These statements are partially true…as far as they go. But what is left out is more important than what is said. No discussion (in fact, not even a mention) of spending for the U.S. welfare state? Not even the slightest consideration of the fact that American military capabilities are clearly authorized as Constitutional responsiblities–but not our welfare state? This is, simply put, looney toons logic and math.

· Reasonable people can argue over costs, scope and effectiveness of U.S. military budgets/overseas operations (not to mention declared and undeclared wars) since 1916. But that’s not where all the big money has been going. The serious spending increases in our budget are in domestic nanny statism, welfare, circuses and feasts—since at least 1965. You don’t have to be a degreed economist to figure out that military spending constitutes “half of America’s discretionary spending” is because welfare state spending has been made non-discretionary! After all, that is why they’re called entitlements!

o We could defund every military capability we have…but not a single welfare payment can be stayed legally by the hand of the President, his Cabinet, or the U.S. Congress. Welfare and nanny-state benefits are literally entitlements, and by law cannot be left unfunded.

· Things like welfare benefits, Section 8 Housing, etc., especially in this age of electronic payments, must be paid, even if the Congress does not pass those parts of the federal budget. (I believe this was written into law soon after the Clinton-Congress budget train wrecks in the 1990s.)

· If you cut the entire U.S. military budget in half, you only dent the deficit. But if you cut just 25% of the sum total of all welfare state benefits, there would be a huge annual federal budget surplus.

o I conclude Hedges’ illogical placement of blame for the budget situation, and all of the impending consequences, are based on his political leanings… which are decidedly leftist, judging by this article. So, what is he trying to accomplish, since he is blaming the wrong folks for the crime?

Second, I completely and absolutely dispute (verily, even dismiss) Hedges’ conclusions as to who will be causing the greatest social disruption in our nation as the U.S. bankruptcy starts impacting our daily lives. Hedges states that:

* “If [other nations] succeed [in dumping the U.S. dollar as the world’s primary currency], the dollar will dramatically plummet in value, the cost of imports, including oil, will skyrocket, interest rates will climb and jobs will hemorrhage at a rate that will make the last few months look like boom times. State and federal services will be reduced or shut down for lack of funds. The United States will begin to resemble the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe. Obama, endowed by many with the qualities of a savior, will suddenly look pitiful, inept and weak. And the rage that has kindled a handful of shootings and hate crimes in the past few weeks will engulf vast segments of a disenfranchised and bewildered working and middle class. The people of this class will demand vengeance, radical change, order and moral renewal, which an array of proto-fascists, from the Christian right to the goons who disseminate hate talk on Fox News, will assure the country they will impose.”

Hedges is saying, politely, that those crazy religious people clinging to their guns are already going nuts, and they will get even worse once they start starving! And all of the “proto-fascists,” which presumably means all of those folks recently described in Department of Homeland Security memoranda as being “risks” [read: pro-life, pro-balanced budget, conservative, libertarian, pro-2nd Amendment, Christians, ministers, bishops, Ron Paul supporters, Republicans, etc.], will be using the opportunity to enact “vengeance, radical change, order and moral renewal.” What Hedges fundamentally has done is blame all the victims for being raped!!!

* I’m surprised he didn’t go further and blame it on all of those evil “survivalists,” but even looney tunes logic has trouble blaming the preppers for the very situation they’ve been predicting for a couple of decades now.

Personally, when TSHTF I won’t be nearly as worried about “working and middle class” folks as I am about the welfare-dependent, “entitlements-R-us” folks. The working and middle class folks have the brains to figure things out–we’ve had a number of neighbors start quietly storing food and gear over the last six months–even the ones who (now regretfully) voted for Obama. But, as proven repeatedly during and after the Katrina crunch…it is the welfare-dependent underclass that will tear the cities and countryside apart. Can things get ugly among “working and middle class” types?? Of course. Still, I think most folks who actually work for a living will quickly band together for security and burden-sharing purposes to endure and survive. However, I’m far more skeptical about those who think “the government” owes them a living, no matter what the situation–survivalblog.com fans are well aware of the many violent examples of that syndrome following multiple disasters over the last decade. (If not, try a couple of internet searches for “Katrina violence” or “Katrina gun confiscation” or “Katrina looting” or…well, you get the idea.”)

Bottom line: Hedges’s article borrowed the language, analysis and conclusions of the prepper/survivalist/fiscal conservative movements–to use as a tool with which to attack them indirectly. Indeed, Hedges appears far more interested in painting the impending social unrest (read: welfare & food riots) as a tool of the another evil right wing conspiracy, than in acknowledging them as the inevitable consequence of the social policies he has supported and championed.

Many of us were taught in our youth that we should “dance with the girl what ya brung.” I think Hedges has concluded his “girl” (read: politics) is darn ugly, emits foul body odors, suffers from multiple social diseases, and has bad teeth to boot. Not surprisingly, he now wants to switch partners while blaming it on all the other, far more circumspect squires at the Preppers’ Informal Dance–but we shouldn’t help him get away with it. Respectfully, – Gentleman Jim in Colorado.

Economics and Investing:

Harry Schultz warns Bob Chapman’s newsletter readers of a possible upcoming “bank holiday.”

From KAF: A Fake Financial Fix

Glenn M. recommended this article and the accompanying video clip: Thirty Years of Inflation Coming, But “Deflation Scare” Not Over Yet, Cycle Maven Says

Karen H. sent this: Derivatives Get Second Look From U.S. Congress That Didn’t Act. I warned SurvivalBlog readers almost four years ago about the threat posed by derivatives.(Please take tee time to re-read that article.) The frightening thing is that we have not yet seen the derivatives bubble fully implode–just one sector..

Also from Karen:
States Turning to Last Resorts in Budget Crisis. “With state revenues in a free fall and the economy choked by the worst recession in 60 years, governors and legislatures are approving program cuts, layoffs and, to a smaller degree, tax increases that were previously unthinkable.”

If you have been waiting, then here is a good dip in silver. (Spot silver was over $16, just a couple of weeks ago.) Buy low!

Items from The Economatrix:

10 Quirky Economic Indicators

Moody’s Warning On California’s Debt Stuns State “California, which is struggling to close a $24.3 billion budget gap, faces the prospect of a “multi-notch” downgrade in its credit rating if the state’s legislature fails to act quickly to produce a budget, Moody’s Investors Service warned on Friday.”

Numerous Cracks Found in States Hiring Freezes Exemptions, exceptions, outright violations…

Discover CEO: Obama’s Credit Card Reforms Will Raise Rates

Top Senators Question Obama’s Plan for The Fed. Geithner takes heat at hearing on financial reform

Democrats to Push Through Banking Overhaul Quickly

Stocks Log First Weekly Loss Since May

US Homes Recovery “Distressingly Slow”

Gas Prices Coming Down?

California Unemployment Hits Record 11.5% in May

Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 23 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from OnPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day OnPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried foods, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 23 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Going the Extra Mile in Amateur Communications, by Extraman

I really enjoyed reading the great novel “Patriots”. In reading it, I picked up lots of good tips along the way. But I felt it really had very little contemporary information about communications, other than the chapter “Radio Ranch” which finally touched on an individual with a serious interest in radio communications. The use of Single Sideband (SSB), Citizens Band (CB) 27 Mhz radios, along with slightly modified “old” style low cost hand held “cheapo” radios really leaves a lot to be desired regarding how it could be done, on a fairly low budget.

It is my sincere belief that anyone even remotely interested in being prepared for what may come should obtain a Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Amateur, or “ham” radio license.

While years ago, It was difficult to learn Morse code and pass the written exam for such a license, the code requirement has now been totally eliminated from all classes of amateur radio licenses.
These days, several companies sell printed books that contain the entire question pool (along with the answers) that will be on the written exams. Simply “highlighting” the correct answer to each question only, And then reading the question along with the highlighted Correct answer (only) After a few short weeks of about 10 minutes per day of such reading will easily allow most anyone to pass the written exam. Sample test runs are available online, free of charge.

The “Technician” class test is very easy to pass, which allows unrestricted operations on VHF and UHF). But I suggest spending the extra effort to get the “General” class license which also permits HF (High Frequency) world-wide communications. For general background on licensing see this site, and this one.

The main “bands”, or [ranges of] frequencies that can be used by a ham operator range all the way from 160 meters (1.8 MHz) Up through 1.2 GHz and above. For more information about ham radio operation, A simple Google search will bring lots of results and information about this neat hobby, That could very well turn out to be a life saver in times of disaster. (In fact, Amateur radio does provide the main links in and out of disaster areas when normal modes like cell phones fail. This is proven time and time again. Most every large hurricane in the U.S. finds ham operators being the only means of communications in and out of the hard hit areas until normal services are restored.)

Once a person has talked halfway around the world with nothing but a radio, A piece of wire strung in the trees for an antenna, and a 12 volt car battery, with no infrastructure. (Like the commercial cellular or land line phone, Internet, etc systems that WILL fail at the worst possible time.) They will be “hooked” on the newfound ability to communicate without any outside help whatsoever (The commercial cellular and land line telephone systems fail during times of disaster as much because of simple “overload” (everyone trying to call someone at the same time) as the do because of infrastructure failure.

Many modern-day amateur radios are now designed to receive not only the “ham” band frequencies, But a wide range of other frequencies. So a VHF/UHF mobile type radio is also capable of receiving the AM aircraft band, FM Police, Fire, Ambulance, Business bands, Marine band, Including the NOAA “Weather” channels, etc etc. (But they may not decode some “big city” police trunked, and or encrypted communications) The lower frequency ham grade radios (HF) will also receive most everything from the AM broadcast band right up through VHF low band radio. This includes the international short wave broadcast stations like BBC (British Broadcasting Corp.), etc.

What many do not know is that with the simple “snip” of a diode or resistor inside these radios, They can be made to also transmit over that very wide frequency range! (This is the so-called MARS Military Affiliate Radio System (MARS) or Civil Air Patrol (CAP) modifications, and is public knowledge all over the Internet. It is not illegal to thus modify these radios. It is illegal to use them to transmit outside of the ham bands unless you hold a valid MARS license, and then only on authorized frequencies for that use. (I have used old dental “pick” type tools to do this modification. (BTW, when you go to a dentist, ask for old used dental tools, Usually they are happy to give them to you.) to remove the [transmission mode blocking] resistor or diode mentioned. (The online sites will provide nice photos, I suggest a very bright light and a big magnifying lens. However, in a life-threatening emergency, FCC rules provide that pretty much “anything” goes…….. So even though your radio that can now also operate on the 27Mhz CB band, it would not be legal to use it for that under normal circumstances, unless a genuine emergency exists.

There are a few radios that I have owned and experimented with and can confirm such operations. One of the very best mobile radios available is a Yaesu FT 8800 “dual band” VHF/UHF. This radio, After the simple snip of the diode can transmit all over the VHF and UHF band. This includes the business band portion (Which also includes such services as MURS (Multi Use Radio System), a license-free system on VHF FM, the General Mobile Radio Service (GMRS),and Family Radio Service (FRS). It is really neat to have but one radio that can do all these things, Even though you cannot legally transmit on those other frequencies under normal circumstances.

The Yaesu FT 8800 radio will also “Cross Band” repeat, Right out of the box with no modifications. This means a person can set up two channels and talk through the radio from a small low power hand held radio, At the full power of the mobile radio. (Cross band repeat means to talk to the radio on one band, VHF for example, and the radio will automatically retransmit your signal on another band, For instance UHF, and vice-versa)

Speaking of hand held radios, My current favorite is the little micro size Yaesu VX 3. A tiny radio that can receive a very wide range of services, including commercial AM and FM broadcast. The simple snip of one little diode allows it to transmit on the GMRS band, Marine band, etc. A major advantage to the little micro size VX 3 is that it uses very common digital camera batteries that are available everywhere for a very low cost. (less than 5 bucks each for a nice Lithium ion battery including shipping!)

For a few dollars more, The Yaesu FT 60 has the full 5 watt power of larger hand held radios, Along with the full touch tone pad, (But is slightly harder to “snip” that diode….. The radio needs to be taken apart to get at it….)

Other good hand held radios include the Yaesu VX 7, VX 8, And the Icom T 90. These are all proven workhorse radios that will do the job.

For a base station type HF radio, The very best “Do it All” radio is the Kenwood TS 2000. The TS 2000 covers 160 meters through 440Mhz UHF, And even goes up to 1.2Ghz with an optional module. The same simple modification will allow the TS 2000 to operate all over, and the TS 2000 can “Cross Band Repeat” from not only VHF to UHF, But from HF to UHF! This means a person can monitor (And or also talk back) on HF through the TS 2000 from out in the field with the small hand held radio! Really neat to not being “stuck” indoors in front of the radio. You can be out in the garden monitoring your HF (or VHF) frequencies from the tall base station antennas, With nothing but the little shirt pocket size hand held radio! The TS 2000 is selling brand new right now for under $1,500.00 if you shop around. (Yes, Such radios after the aforementioned snip of the diode ARE capable of talking on 27Mhz CB etc in the event of a true disaster)

If a “better” quality HF radio is desired, Check out the Icom 756PRO series (PRO II, PRO III) The original PRO sells good used for $900 and up. These are high quality radios with a wide range “spectrum scope” that shows other signals on the band. But the Icom 756PRO series is HF only, no VHF/UHF, and it cannot crossband repeat.

There are lots of other radios that can operate on a wide range of frequencies, And have certain advantages (Along with disadvantages) For example, the Icom 706 series will do HF through UHF, And is a small light radio very capable of mobile operation. (The Icom 706 series is also a proven good radio). However, such radios cannot dual receive like the TS 2000 (Ability to monitor two frequencies at the same time, or cross band repeat) There are many others, such as the Yaesu FT 857, et cetera.. They all mostly operate from “menu” driven operation. (Not nearly as easy to operate for old timers like myself as a radio with more “knobs and buttons” Maybe younger computer types would enjoy them more.)

It is possible to operate on both the ham bands and your business band with one radio and not violate the law on a daily basis, but t needs to be done the “other way around” . You could take a commercial radio certified for the business band in question and simply program in the ham frequencies you want. This is 100% legal to do and operate on a daily basis. The drawbacks are that commercial radios are single band only. So if you wanted to have one on the two meter ham band and your VHF business band, And you also wanted to operate on UHF, then would need to have a second radio.

(All of these base or mobile radios operate from 12 volts DC (or 13.6 VDC) So will work fine from your solar panel battery bank) Speaking of which, I have been running all of my radios for many years now on just a single 12 volt “Marine” Deep Cycle type battery, Kept on a fully automatic 10 amp charger connected to commercial power— In the event of a widespread and long term “power grid failure” that same battery can be kept charged with a solar panel. (I have several panels and have experimented with them, They do work well, But I have not resolved the overcharge regulation problem yet. (I have not yet spent the money for a commercial grade voltage regulator [“charge controller”] that will work with solar panels. Quality ones are expensive. Of course wind generators and other means of producing 12 volt power will work as well.

I suggest LED (Light Emitting Diodes) If electric light is desired, for their very low current consumption, to save precious battery power.

All radios need an antenna to be effective. All that is really needed to operate on the HF bands is some wire and some simple plans to cut dipole antennas. Stock up on electric fence wire and insulators from your local farm supply store for cheap antennas for the low HF bands! Although copper wire will work better than galvanized steel or aluminum fence wire, it costs lots more. And the cheap stuff will do the job.

For VHF and UHF radio operations, It is also possible to build your own antenna from scratch, But in most cases it is lots easier to just buy a decent VHF/UHF dual band antenna along with some good quality coax feed line cable. (For VHF/UHF, Keep the coax length as short as possible. TIMES LMR 400 is the coax of choice by the professionals for shorter runs of less than 70 or so feet)

For those on a real budget, It is possible to ask for “spool ends” of cable television “drop wire” from your local friendly cable TV guy. (Offer him a bag of donuts.). Even though that coax is 75 ohm and not the 50 ohm suggested for ham use, In most all cases it will work just fine, especially when you consider the very low cost! (On the lower HF frequencies, Coax cable “loss” is not really a [significant] factor or problem. Most any skinny cheap coax should work just fine. But as you move higher in frequency, coax feed line loss becomes critical- Use only short lengths of the very best at VHF and UHF.)

All antennas should be installed as high as possible. Which of course kind of makes them a lightning target. There is an article in the May 2009 issue of Popular Communications magazine on how to protect from lightning on a low budget.

You may have read or heard about the threat of EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) from a nuclear event. This is a real threat. However, not nearly as much of a threat to most of us that many would have you believe. If your radio station is well protected from lightning, and you are more than a few hundred miles away from the nuclear event, unless that is a special high intensity EMP device then you should have
no problems. (EMP acts like lightning, with a faster rise time). I plan to address EMP and lightning more fully in a future article.

Like owning a firearm and lots of other things, It is not enough to just buy the above mentioned radios and equipment and leave them in a box. It is important to use them on a day to day basis to really learn how they operate, And all that they are capable of.

Amateur radio is a fun hobby, and it provides you with some real communications when the other services fail.

Get yourself a license and enjoy it today!

Besides the advantages of being able to talk with friends, neighbors, your [preparedness] “group” if you have one, And other “ham” operators, Just think of the ability to also be able to talk to others on the marine band, Business bands, GMRS, etc with the same radio if TSHTF!

In addition to ham radio, I suggest getting a number of GMRS small hand held radios (UHF FM) for all unlicensed family members and friends and neighbors. I got a number of “store return” Motorola 9500 series GMRS hand held radios on Ebay for just over $20 per pair, complete with drop-in chargers! Do monitor the channels in your neighborhood and choose a channel with little activity, And then also change the “privacy code” (Which is actually a subaudible tone) to something other than what they came programmed for to
further make your system a little more private. While I would never consider any of the GMRS frequencies of much value for “tactical” use, These little radios do work very well,
And can provide good communications and teach youngsters (And oldsters alike) the ins and outs of radio communications on a very low budget.

Letter Re: Cuban Spy Ring Arrests Raises Concern of Ham Radio Restrictions

Jim:
This article concerns me: Cuban spies’ shortwave radios go undetected: Low-tech transmissions no big deal for U.S. intelligence. The journalist mentions: “The International Amateur Radio Union said there are more than 700,000 amateur radio operators in the United States.” I hope the governmental paranoia does not try to constrain the best method of rural emergency communications. – KAF

JWR Replies: Without mentioning anything classified, I can safely say that they are describing clandestine operatives in in the US. receiving the old-fashioned HF “Numbers” broadcasts from Cuba. These are typically code groups of five numbers, read aloud by a woman, in a monotone, such as : “Ocho, Cinco, Cinco, Uno, Nueve…” These codes are very hard to break without a huge sample for brute force computer cryptanalysis.

This modus operandi has been used for 40+ years, and is well-known to both amateur operators and the signals intelligence (SIGINT) community. To the best of my knowledge, receivers are a non-issue vis-a-vis regulating amateur radio equipment. But clandestine transmitters may be another matter. Given our fluid borders and the ubiquitous “diplomatic pouch” it is absurd to think that regulation on the possession of HF radio transmitters would have any meaningful at stopping clandestine traffic. Licensed radio amateurs are largely self-policing. They fairly quickly identify and locate unlicensed broadcasts in their their vicinity.

The Cuban DGI is an odd anachronism. While most intelligence agencies have leapfrogged their communications to exotic methods such as steganography to imbed messages in in photos sent as .gifs via the Internet and using low-power spread spectrum transmissions, the DGI’s modus operandi is at least 30 years out of date. It is somewhat analogous to Cubans still driving around cars that were manufactured in the 1950s. The last I heard, the DGI still had offices that primarily used typewriters made in the former Yugoslavia. Picturing that, you can practically smell the Cuban tobacco smoke.

Letter Re: It Will Be Skills, Not Gear That Will Count in TEOTWAWKI

JWR,
Skill is critical, parts and tools can be improvised.

While I agree with C.A.Y.: “… the combination of skills plus tools plus parts is what’s needed”, there are important exceptions. In some south asia villages, a highly skilled artificer [with a few assistants] can create a self-loading pistol, per day, without parts, and only the most primitive tools of drills, belt sanders and files. The steel is recycled from wrecked cars and trucks. The skill is what makes this possible. This town near the Khyber Pass makes one thousand guns per day. Look at minute marks 3:33 and 3:46 for the ammo and gun fabrication.

During WW2, Allied POWs [in German Stammlagers and Oflags] fabricated metal cutting lathes, shortwave radio receivers, photographic darkroom developing equipment and offset printing for counterfeit documents – all without the appropriate tools or parts – it was all improvised. The skill with working with the original equipment back home showed the way to the objective.

Conversely, in my fully-equipped machine shop, I have seen freshly graduated mechanical technologists and machine tool operators wreck instruments and equipment, ruin dies, moulds and tooling – and occasionally remove necessary appendages from their bodies. It was the skill [and common sense] that was lacking.

Skill is critical, parts and tools can be improvised. – Richard S.

Five Letters Re: Escape From (Fill in Your City Here), 2009

Jim,
I live in a rural farming area east of the Mississippi and can tell you that cutting a gate or fence would be a very bad choice (in this area).  In 99% of the cases you would already be on private property, so cutting the fence or gate would be considered a “hostile” act.   Most of the folks I know would shot first and ask questions later . . . these folks all hunt, so they are not likely to miss . . . and trust me they know when someone is on their property.   When the police are called, you will find they are a relative or friend of the local (we are very rural) . . . and the “strangers” will be just “bagged and tagged”.    If you must cross a gated or fenced area, stop, honk your horn, jump up and down, o anything to get the property owners attention, he is probably watching anyway . . . who knows you might turn out to be an asset to him instead of a liability.

I do not want to make this sound all negative.  We all know that living at your retreat full-time is the best option, but circumstances may make that impossible for you; your job or just the finances to make that kind of a move.   The real question is do you believe bad things can and will happen?    If so what are you going to do that is practical and realistic?    “Borrowing” a plane might be a cool idea, but it is far from realistic. Several have already commented on this point and I happen to be a retired Naval aviator with more hours and experience than I care to remember, and flying to my retreat would be the last option I’d consider (we live at our retreat full-time, but do travel).    If “your” plan involves some exotic way of escaping the metropolis you live in then you are planning to stay too late (that includes having to take back roads)!   You will have to establish “trigger events” that make the decision to execute “your” depart plan (what those trigger events are up to you, based on your analysis and understanding of events.) If you wait until it is obvious to everyone then you are “way too late”.   And that is the rub: are you willing to give up your comfortable city life for a survival existence, on a “chance” that “this is it”?   If the answer is “no” then best of luck to you, you will need it.  If the answer is “yes” then you had better figure out a way to preposition your items, at a location that involves more than just your family . . . and then maybe you will have a fighting chance to survive the transition.   None of this is easy, but if you really want to provide for and protect your family then what other options do you have. You can rely on the government to see to your basic needs (it’s called being a refugee), or you can do all within your power to provide realistic options for them yourself. The choice is yours. – RH in Virginia

Dear SurvivalBlog Readers:
I want to preface my comments by saying that I have the utmost respect for JWR, his work, and all the readers and contributors to this site. I understand and hold close the essential tenets of independence and preparedness, living as I have my whole life in the heart of Southern California earthquake country.

That said, the recent string of essays about escaping a city when TSHTF is complete nonsense. The thought that if you get out early you’ll leave everyone else behind is fantasy thinking. The fact is that in such a situation just about everyone will be thinking about getting out and many will act on that impulse. That means that EVERY freeway, EVERY back road, EVERY intersection, and EVERY town will soon be filled with hoards of roaming people, all of whom will be unprepared, scared, and desperate. You might – MIGHT – actually get a jump the situation and beat the hoards out of the city but a human tidal wave will be right behind you, spreading out in all directions, many thousands of which will be heading right to wherever it is you’re going.

Further, a good percentage of the roaming hoards will be street criminals and gang members. Many will be military vets who had advanced training in tactics and equipment and they’ll all be heavily armed – in many cases, better equipped than the local law enforcement. In the short-to-medium timeframe, these groups will be the most dangerous threat and sooner or later they’ll be coming to your hideout. I don’t care how many rounds of ammo you’re carrying on the way or how much you’ve got stashed if you actually make it to your refuge. No matter how much you’ve got it won’t be enough, especially if you get in a firefight with a group that’s shooting back with high caliber, armor-piercing ordnance. And let’s not forget about the really heavy stuff – RPGs or plain old dynamite that they’ll find along the way. If you look like you’ve got equipment and food, you’re going to be a target, simple as that.

JWR is right – the safest strategy is to move away now and get established long before the crisis hits, preferably far enough away that it’s just too difficult for city hordes to get to you. (A tip of my hat to Frank B – 15 miles from the nearest asphalt road.) You’ll still be in danger from unprepared locals and groups that do make it out to the frontier but the farther away and better prepared the better.

Meanwhile, what about the millions of us who can’t relocated and are stuck in the cities? After 30 years of survival thinking related to earthquake preparedness I determined that the only effective strategy is to stay put and lay low. Don’t fire up your generator, blast your radio, and light up your house will the oil lamps you so carefully stashed for just the very event. In fact, leave all your survival equipment stashed for a couple of days until the first big wave of refugees passes by. Camouflage your place and your family to look like you’re destitute – that you have nothing, just like everyone else. With a bit of luck, the hordes will pass you by and you can then join up with neighbors, pool your equipment and resources, and develop a defense strategy. Meanwhile, whatever governmental resources exist will be directed at the cities first so there’s a likelihood that some form of law enforcement will be imposed. It’s the rural areas that will be the most lawless and there won’t be anybody out there to help enforce the peace, at least not for a very long time. Once the peace is secured in your city you can implement your long-term strategies of off-grid living, food production, bartering, and practical skills – machinery repair, welding, auto and home maintenance – that will always be in demand.

One final thought – as mentioned so often on the site, survival skills have a very steep learning curve and there is no substitute for hands-on experience and training. Read the books but then go practice! Can you find, set up, and operate your equipment in the pitch dark at 3 AM? If you’ve had a beer of two? Can your spouse, if you’re hurt? Can your kids if you’re not home? Have you ever eaten freeze-dried food? Can you take down and repair the Coleman stove? Bake biscuits? Operate a chain saw? Jury-rig a DC power cable from the car battery to your living space? Successful preparedness means that you continually ask – and answer – such questions. – Patrick C. in Southern California

James,
I think using an aircraft as a bug-out vehicle would not be a good idea. If you look back at the emergency following the September 11, 2001 attack on the United States, you’ll remember that all planes were grounded. I a 9-11 situation a small aircraft flying low or even flying at all would attract unwanted attention. Probably in a bug-out situation in a aircraft you would have to leave early before things got hot and and you risk being forced down in a strange location or being shot down. Both not good options. On 9-11-2001 my wife and I were scheduled to fly home on a commercial airline at 13:30 from half way across the country. Needless to say we found we were grounded before we finished breakfast. When I heard the news we headed to the nearest electronic teller and withdrew as much cash as was allowed. Since we were traveling by air we were traveling light and had little survival gear and virtually no weapons. First we checked the trains and found they were all stopped, same for busses. I next zipped over to the local truck rental and reserved a rental truck for a one-way trip home with a credit card. After the truck reservation was secured I went to a local car dealer and secured financing for the purchase of a late model used SUV and put a small deposit down for them to hold the vehicle. Had I had my own plane I may very well have considered hedge hopping home and would more than likely not been allowed to refuel reroute and maybe risked being arrested if I did manage to land of my own accord.

Because of the help afforded us as total strangers stranded in a strange town, far from home, we moved to the area the following year and have lived here on our small farm at the end of the gravel road ever since. – P.B.

 

Jim,
I knew my letter regarding escape in a light plane would end up attracting the criticism of one or more experts on the subject… I’d like to address Larry in Pennsylvania’s response.

First I’d like to point out that I never suggested using a Cessna 172 for anything. I merely mentioned that my father-in-law recently purchased one and that’s what got me thinking about it. There are any number of light planes available, from ultralights to Cessna Caravans, and some are better suited to the task than others, depending on how far you need to go. I, for example, have friends who own a 450 acre ranch 250 miles from here. I could easily make it to their ranch in virtually any airplane without having to refuel.

I addressed some of Larry’s points in my original letter. Yes, fuel is an issue, that’s why I mentioned it. I think Larry might have misunderstood what I was saying. I was not suggesting putting autogas into any random airplane. There are a ton of light planes that have been STCed (Supplemental Type Certificate qualified) for autogas and many more with the same engines that could burn autogas but whose owners haven’t asked for an STC. In a 1998 letter to the Experimental Aircraft Association (of which I’m a member), the FAA said “Autogas use has been extensively compared, tested, and analyzed. Autogas has been shown to be an acceptable alternative to avgas for the airplanes and engines approved for such use. Airplanes and engines approved for autogas use have met the FAA certification requirements for engine detonation, engine cooling, fuel flow, hot fuel testing, fuel system compatibility, vapor lock, and performance.” More information and a copy of the letter above can be found at AviationFuel.org. What I suggested and what I’m suggesting now is research. Know ahead of time what your airplane can burn and either have it on hand or have solid plans for how to obtain it.

I also addressed Larry’s concerns about overloading so I won’t rehash that here other than to say again that yes, payload is an issue but it can be planned out ahead of time. I thought I was very clear that leaving by airplane was for those who had pre-positioned supplies [at a retreat].

As for obstructed runways or runways cluttered by looting, etc., I seriously doubt it in any realistic situation that would require emergency evac by air. Here is a perfectly realistic situation: Terrorists bomb the nuclear power plant that sits 150 miles upwind of my (very large) city. A fallout cloud is approaching at 15 miles per hour. The authorities screw around for four hours and then declare an evacuation of the entire city. We’ve got at most six hours to evacuate a huge city and its suburbs – a feat that the Gulf Coast cities can’t pull off in two days! Interstates immediately become parking lots and before long are totally stopped by broken down cars. A mere fraction (5%) of the population decides to take state highways and county roads – that’s 315,000 people – and the same thing happens to those roads. Whatcha gonna do?

In this scenario, do you think looters are really going to head for the airports to steal gas and oil? I doubt it would even occur to them, especially in the hours immediately after a disaster. They’ll be in Best Buy and Wal-Mart stealing televisions and beer – we’ve already seen it happen!

My airplane suggestion was laced with caveats and the weather was certainly one of them. During many parts of the year, large parts of the country enjoy nice weather with only isolated storms. You don’t need forecasts and radar to avoid bad weather. God gave you eyes and the ability to make a 180-degree turn. Pilots did it for years before these services were widely available. Further, except over congested areas, there are few places where you’ll have no options for an off-field landing. Have plans ‘B’ and ‘C’ constantly in your mind. When I was flying my solo cross-countries, there was never a moment when I hadn’t identified somewhere I could land if the engine quit ‘right now’ – my instructor beat that into my head constantly. As Larry points out, an off-field landing could invite looters but remember, the emergency is only hours old and people aren’t hungry yet, and probably aren’t desperate enough that the normally law-abiding become a danger.

As for Navaids such as VOR, ADF, and even GPS… Ever heard of a chart, a pencil, a stopwatch and a compass? It ain’t rocket science. If the weather is good you don’t need any outside help to get from A to B. Again. pilots did it for years before these were available – and for many years after, since many couldn’t afford to equip their aircraft with fancy gadgets and nav radios.

Finally, once again I’ll say this is a very unlikely scenario. If it happens it depends on having good weather and solid pre-planning, at least to the extent possible. The wisest course in my hypothetical situation above would be to bug out by car at the first hint of a problem – before the full extent of the problem was revealed to the masses. But if for some reason the news was delayed or something (car problems, missing family member) delayed your departure for even a few hours, leaving by car would be impossible. At that point my “Plan B” starts looking better than radiation sickness, despite some well-identified problems and risks. It’s all about options. I think keeping options open is important. – Matt R.

JWR,
An important note to remember if one plans to use an aircraft during some type of emergency is that the control of the National Airspace System may have been handed over to the military. If that is the case, and I think it would be as the government attempted to maintain control of things as the cascade of events progressed into TEOTWAWKI, something called SCATANA (Security Control of Air Traffic and Air Navigation Aids) could be implemented. This plan closes down all aircraft operations save a few fixed wing fighter interceptors under the direct control of the National Command Authority. Here’s the bottom line. Under SCATANA if you fly, without positive control from the right folks, you die. No warning, no identification passes. An example of how serious the blanket authority is enforced is illustrated by the instructions given to a USAF C-130 on 9-11-01. This aircraft, full of soldiers from one of America’s front line Divisions was over the Great Plains on an exercise. They were ordered to land at a small municipal airport immediately. These soldiers, and they weren’t just Privates, ended up renting a bus for the day long ride back to their unit. Agree desperate times may call for desperate measures but ensure you have adequate information to make the decisions. As always, planning is the key ingredient for success. Using an airplane is a possible Get Out of Dodge solution, especially if used early on in the event. Just know all the second and third order effects. Keep up the good work. Excellent site – Redcatcher21

Economics and Investing:

KAF found this one: Standard & Poor’s cuts ratings on 18 banks

Also from KAF comes this item from Foreign Policy: What Does the End of the Recession Look Like?

Another week, another three banks bite the dust: North Carolina, Georgia, Kansas Bank Seizures Cost $363 Million. (Thanks to Karen H. for the link.)

Dr. Gary North on Inflation Versus Deflation. (Thanks to OSOM for the link.)

Another from Karen H.: Port of Los Angeles Inbound Shipping Container Traffic Down 18%

Krys in Idaho sent this: Is this the death of the dollar?

Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader Jonathan B. and SurvivalBlog’s Editor at Large Mike Williamson both sent this video clip that displays utter stupidity. (I cannot believe that so many people on the firing line acquiesced to being part of this!)

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Ferdinand recommended a great piece of common sense journalism by Patrice Lewis, over at WND: Calling All Kooks.

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“Dim Tim” mentioned these YouTube videos: Solar Car and Tractor, and John Howe’s Solar Chainsaw.

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KAF flagged this: Absolutely prefabulous: Eco-living has never looked this good thanks to a new wave of prefabricated palaces

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“He doubted whether they could survive the winter, even though they piled broken furniture into the fireplace. Some accident would quite likely overtake them, or pneumonia might strike them down. They were like the highly bred spaniels and pekinese who at the end of their leashes had once walked along the city streets. Milt and Ann, too, were city-dwellers, and when the city died, they would hardly survive without it. They would pay the penalty which in the history of the world, he knew, had always been inflicted upon organisms which specialized too highly.” – George Stewart Earth Abides , (1948), a classic pandemic novel

Note from JWR:

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