Odds ‘n Sods:

The latest news and commentary gleanings from our economic editor: Despite $143 Billion Bailout, AIG May Be Tottering Towards Collapse — Global Financial Crisis Drives EU Toward Recession — Auto Sales Worst Since 1992 — US Manufacturing Shrinks to 26-year Low — Battered Global Markets End October With Worst Losses Ever — Global Financial Matrix Disintegrates — HBOS, RSS to Reveal Massive Asset Losses — Brits Hoarding Cash? — International Trade Slowed ‘Savagely” By Credit Crisis — The Financial Next Shoe To Drop — Blue Mountain Capital Freezes Withdrawals From Its $3.1 Billion Hedge Fund — Bernanke Push For Lower Bank Borrowing Costs Drives Treasury Yields Higher — Banks Tighten Lending Standards By a Record as U.S. Economic Outlook Dims

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Some deep Schumer ahead? Schumer Vows Big Changes on ‘Issue After Issue’ in Next Senate. (A hat tip to KAF for the link.)

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Our #1 Son attended the Seasteading Institute‘s First Planning Conference, where he got the chance to meet a lot of Libertarians–with a capital “L”. He plans to write a piece about Seasteading for SurvivalBlog that will be posted soon.

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Ruger announces the recall of some LCP .380 ACP pistols.

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Hawaiian K. sent us this article on “diesel trees”

Note from JWR:






Today (Tuesday) is the last day to take advantage of the 33 percent off pre-election sale for the “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. The sale ends at midnight tonight, Eastern time. Don’t miss out!

Our first post today comes from my darling wife. She is now home from a lengthy stay in the hospital, but is still is need of your prayers. Please pray for a complete recovery and restoration of her full vigor. There is so much in this mortal life that we’d like to accomplish together. Please pray that she will be given the years that needs here, before she goes to be with the Lord. Thank you!.

From The Memsahib: Buyer Beware When Purchasing Livestock

While most of my livestock purchases over the years have been satisfactory, I have found that buying livestock can be full of pitfalls. I will share some of my mistakes in hopes you can learn from them. I have found livestock sellers may not outright lie to buyers but they often do not volunteer important information. So it is very important that you get a detailed book for each type of livestock you plan to purchase and do some research, so you’ll know exactly what questions to ask. Make certain the book has a chapter about choosing healthy stock. The book ought to give you signs of unhealthy or poorly conforming animals as well as questions to ask the sellers about the health of the animals.

The first time I bought sheep I did not know to ask if the yearling lambs I was buying had been wormed. Unfortunately the five lambs I bought had not been wormed. Because of the parasite load they were carrying, they were not able to withstand the stress of the transport, feed change, and new environment. They quickly developed pneumonia despite all I did to try to keep them alive. Two out of the five died. No, the seller would not refund any of my money.

I paid a premium price for the first dairy cow I bought because supposedly she was “due to calve” in less than two months. I did not ask the seller to have a veterinarian certify she was bred. (My mistake!) She never calved and the seller would not refund the extra that I paid for a “due to calve” cow. We drank store bought milk for an extra year because of this mistake.

Then there was the pair of a angora rabbits I purchased. I assumed wrongly that since I was buying a “breeding pair” that meant they would breed. I did not think to ask the breeder to demonstrate that the male had all his necessary parts. He didn’t. No, the seller would not refund my money.

Temperament is another important component of purchasing livestock. Animals with bad temperaments can be difficult to work with or down right dangerous. Don’t take the seller’s word for the temperament of the animals, insist on seeing a demonstration. Even better arrive early, to see the animals before the seller has a chance to get the animal “ready”.

I told the seller of my second cow, that I intended to show her at the Fair and milk her. He kept expressing on the phone to me how wonderful that would be. I neglected to ask for a demonstration of her being haltered, led, or being milked. He neglected to tell me she was more feral than a March Hare. The only time I was able to milk her was when she was immobilized in a squeeze chute!

Then there was the horse supposedly “gentle enough for a novice to ride bareback. But the seller kept postponing our meeting and postponing until it was getting quite late even though we had driven several hours to see the horse. When we finally were met by the sellers, the seller’s daughter who supposedly was the only person who knew how to ride never showed up. Because it was late and getting dark and we had a long drive home, and they just seemed so honest we bought the horse on the seller’s word that I, a novice, could ride the horse bareback with just a snaffle bit . Later when I rode this horse at our ranch, after he discovered that I could bring him under control when he tried running away with me, his next trick was balking–refusing to move at all. When I repeatedly urged him forward he started rearing and bucking. No, the sellers would not take the horse back and refund our money.

Do your homework. Find out all the questions you should ask, find out what parts you should inspect and what to look out for. Insist on seeing the animals handled, haltered, led, ridden, milked, as applicable. By the way, if the seller is only able to manage the animals with well-trained stock dogs, then how are you going to manage them? Do not let the seller’s position as president of the breed association or their religious affiliation cause you to believe they would not mislead you or omit information in order to make a sale. Sadly I have found this out the hard way, “Buyer beware” should be your watch words as you purchase livestock–even from the breed association president, and even more sadly sometimes from people who claim to be of the same religious beliefs as your own.

Five Letters Re: Prisons and Other Institutions Amidst a Societal Collapse?

Mr. Rawles-
I just finished reading the letter sent in by the correctional officer regarding his prison’s security infrastructure and keeping the prisoners in during a SHTF scenario. I think he’s missing an important element regarding keeping prisoners in the prison: He assumes the prisoners will be attempting to get over or under the fences unaided. Prisoners have families and social connections on the outside. During a true SHTF breakdown, some of those outsiders will take risks on behalf of their incarcerated loved ones. The fences that should be an obstacle could be breached with a vehicle from the outside in just a few seconds, by someone coming to the aid of a prisoner during social upheaval.

In a situation where the wheels are really coming off our society, I believe people should assume the majority of prison inmates will get out, and become difficult to identify as they reintegrate with whatever elements of society are left.
Regards, – Rich S.

 

Sir:
I enjoy reading your blog. Let me be the first to applaud you on your record of more than three years of daily posts without a miss. Good job! Now let me recommend that you start posting twice a day!

On the subject of prisons, something that hasn’t been mentioned other than obliquely is the possibility of outside help in the time of collapse. And I’m not talking about the help of peace-loving citizens in maintaining order in a time of society difficulty. If the world goes crazy, I suspect that family members, fellow gang members and some who just like to feed chaos will be assisting prisoners escape from the outside. This would include attempting to take out guards if they are still on duty, ramming the fences with vehicles to break them down, to even opening individual cells. Just something to think about, especially if you live near a prison. – Brian

 

James Wesley,
I have a friend that lives near a [high security] Federal prison. Complete with guard towers, COs carrying weapons, and a lot of inmates. We have talked about this at length and have some conclusions similar to your man that posted from the Midwest. I have one issue with his logic – here in our area a lot of inmates have family members that have purchased housing close to the prison to make for easier visitation (and bring a new low to our area). I would say that the local people might stop some of these guys from getting over or under the fence but I would also say that one ‘loved one’ with a semi or large box truck will make sure that these upstanding incarcerated ex-citizens will be able to make a break for it by crashing the fence. You can count on some bad guys getting their friends out in a time of crisis as they will have some people on the outside with out a doubt.

Just something that people over look – saying the locals are going to pepper them in to demise is not counting that they may have relatives or friends coming to rescue them from a sure end at the hands of the man. So it might be good idea to set up security both to and from the prison before that peppering action takes place. – Fitzy in Pennsylvania

 

Jim,
I have enjoyed the illuminating, if somewhat chilling, discussion regarding the fate of correctional institutions in the event of a total TEOTWAWKI event. Joe in the Midwest paints a very interesting picture that, coming from an insider carries great credibility. The water issue alone pretty much guarantees the end of any possible uprising in a matter of days. Grim, but there it is.

It occurred to me, however, that while it may be possible to button up a facility on the inside, there may be serious gaps in security that might prevent a determined force, arriving on scene well equipped, to break in and free everyone. This has happened before, in Latin America on occasion. In fact, a sniper from outside the prison carried out a gangland execution from a hillside in France as late as Sept. 30th of this year. In Iraq and elsewhere, attacks from the outside to facilitate escapes seem to be getting almost routine.

In a situation where it was becoming apparent that law and order were breaking down across the spectrum, I find it unlikely that the Mexican Mafia or other robust organizations of that nature would sit by and allow their comrades to remain locked in a potential death trap. These organizations are more than capable of throwing the kind of party that could see the facility breached from the outside in while an uprising occurs inside.

The local community, as Jim pointed out, would be a key source of back-up for a beleaguered guard force but they had better be prepared to meet with a force that would undoubtedly be equipped with all the kinds of things you don’t find in sporting goods stores and prepared to commit extreme violence. In the case of the aforementioned organization, they undoubtedly have members in their ranks who have served in someone’s army somewhere, most likely in combat or severe unrest areas.

Making their way to their target would not necessarily be too difficult as many of these facilities are within range of a tank of gas from areas where these groups congeal in numbers. More than likely a number of gas stations along the way that can be looted as well.

Some of the figures in secure facilities mean a great deal to these organizations, sometimes even running them from the inside. That they would sit idly by and let them die I find unlikely. At that point, you’ve got serious problems on two fronts. Those fences can be breached by anyone with a chain saw with a metal cutting attachment…or a stolen dump truck. Defeat the cinder block in much the same way and saw through any re-bar they encounter. The corrections officers get pinned down in their secure fall back position by infantry and all the birdies fly the cage.
Any local law enforcement organizations or concerned citizens in these areas may wish to consider that possibility as they ponder our uncertain future. – Mosby

Mr. Rawles:
Having read the post about a large correctional facility from the perspective of one of it’s guards – I think that a few things need to be addressed.

It’s not necessary to go over or under a wire fence, you simply need to defeat some of it’s deadlier facets. Defensive obstacles are only as good as the people defending their integrity. With 30 minutes the convicts will have the concertina wire cleared away and the fence itself clipped. Among the many things taken from inmates on a regular basis are makeshift wire cutters. Worse yet, envision an accomplice outside the wire (realizing the fence is no longer defended) can simply walk up and toss a couple of small bolt cutters that will deal with the fence quickly. I suppose it’s even possible to simply drive a vehicle through both fences, although some are built with concrete bases and are resistant to this. The point is, the fence might as well not exist – there will be no folks on the other side of the wire to defend it, most of them in such a scenario will be at their homes looking after their families – the only ones available might be unmarried men and women, but – again – their labors are far more usefully spent preparing at their shelter, than protecting society at large by their actions.

Perhaps he should ask himself exactly how many COs will remain to defend the wire? And you have to remember that you are flanked, since each of those inmates has family, and if experience serves, quite a few families move to the area near the institution just to be nearby [to facilitate frequent visits].

He’s right, of course, in that there are typically only a core of troublemakers bent on violence, for the most part America locks up a lot of non-violent people, our incarceration rates per capita are staggering compared with the worse third-world hellholes for human rights. Yeah, there is summary execution in those places that aren’t factored in, but we seem to be the only on that is bent on rearing millions of people that have been disenfranchised and alienated from their own society.

According to The Christian Science Monitor: “More than 5.6 million Americans are in prison or have served time there, according to a new report by the Justice Department released Sunday. That’s 1 in 37 adults living in the United States, the highest incarceration level in the world.”

Now let’s look at the ripple, each of those persons is a member of some family for the most part, most have children – all of these people have a bone to pick with society as a whole. So it is not unjustifiable to contemplate that there are a few hundred people outside of the prison that will make it their business to free those that are still inside. Then there are the families, who, realizing, that their loved ones are in a locked-down prison, starving and subject to the basest brutality imaginable – will mount some sort of rescue effort.

Let us hope that it’s not a family member with access to a M1 Abrams tank or even a Bradley [tracked Infantry Fighting Vehicle], not to mention the several different varieties of armored transportation our military uses and stockpiles around the country.

Long before this happens, the administration of each prison (and since it’s more and more often a private corporation with no intrinsic duty to serve the public trust) needs to identify their core population that are the violent offenders, put them in the deepest lockdown, then release the non-violent ones. It really is a small percentage of the population. Get them back with the only societal control that has any chance of working, their families. But you need to do it before you have 2,000 violent felons looking for a way out. They will find a way out.

I, frankly think that if things collapse too hard that the prisons in California alone will be overrun by the gang members who are not in the prison. Pelican Bay Correctional Facility had 3,301 prisoners as of 2006. While located in the far north of California hundreds of miles from S.F. and L.A. – it’s only a hop and a skip to Salem, Oregon. And it’s where California houses the worst of the worst. Fortunately for San Francisco, a far larger prison exists just north of the bay – San Quentin. With a paltry 5,000 maximum security inmates. It costs $210 million a year to run. In a collapse can you really foresee any state government allocating that?

If you live in California, you really want to avoid the areas on this map. They have 318,000 inmates in their system with an annual turnover of about 14,000 (leaving and being replaced) It costs almost $10 billion a year to run with a per inmate cost of $35,000. That $10 billion represents the budget shortfall that California is currently struggling with.

The correctional system and it’s repercussions on our society is yet one more lie we as citizens have been allowing our politicians to use to manipulate us. The truest statement ever made about prison, is that most people go into it fairly naive and non-violent, they get their real education once they are in there. If someone burglarizes my home, for instance, I figure he owes me to fix it and to replace stuff – that’s pretty much it. As our current legal systems exists, the bad guy doesn’t commit a crime against me, but against “The People of the State of California” – huh? Recently a burglar duo had their sentences ‘modified’ – they had been convicted of 32 separate residential burglaries – most while the residents were at home. In the original sentence one got 18 months and the other got six months, reimbursement was ordered and each was to write a letter of apology to the victims, along with 500 hours of community service. Without telling the victims, about 9 months later, the sentences of both were modified to credit for time served, the writs of restitution were vacated and they were both released without spending one hour doing community service, and not one penny to restitution. And it was all done without the knowledge or consent of the real victims, who no longer had the right to object simply because the crime was against, “The People”. No kidding.

I’m pretty sure that we turn out more violent offenders every year than we do doctors and nurses in a given year. Heck, in California alone it’s 14,000. And most of those aren’t first offenders, it is very rare to spend time in a real prison on your first offense in California.

So while the fence looks formidable, and I’m certain someone would make some effort to secure it in the event of a total lockdown – there are factors that we have been breeding out of control for decades now that will influence the ultimate outcome of it.

Oh, did anyone notice that the California Penal System map didn’t include Federal facilities? There are 11 of them. Here’s a map of Federal Prisons in the BOP’s farthest western region.

Not all federal facilities are true prisons, some are temporary facilities (like those attached to courthouses)

Oops, have we forgotten all the local prisons (county jails) Each county has at least one, but most have at least two (one for temporary – awaiting trial, short sentences) and one for longer term. Hmmm… Let’s see: California has 58 counties, and officially 117 jails according to records. Most of these have a wide mix of inmates, in most cases those sentences to misdemeanors go to county jail, but a lot of inmates there are held by contract with state corrections due to overcrowding, and lets not forget that when a prison inmate must undergo a trial while still incarcerated, they are transferred to a county facility until the trial is over. At any one time in California there are 6,000 people awaiting trial on various felonies, some will plea out, some will go to trial, etc. It is estimated that current capacity is 75,000 – add that to the state prisoners and federal prisoners and you come up with 20,133 in California (according to the Bureau of Prisons web site) as of Nov 2, 2008.

Aw, gosh – I almost forgot the seven military prisons or confinement centers in California! This rounds out the current population to around 180,000 people in California alone – and they are everywhere that people are. That, by the way – does not include the county jails. It is difficult to get a day to day count there because so many of them are operating well above their rated capacity

People whine all the time about the money we ‘waste’ on military interventions – and nobody seems to care about the number one growth industry in America today – prison.

Oh, this doesn’t count those people who are currently serving their sentences in house arrest or other non-incarceration capacity – but that number is statistically small compared to those locked up and dehumanized. Do I sound like a bleeding heart type? Well, if you knew me you wouldn’t think so.

Along the same lines of Elizabeth B. who recently explained that stocking up on food wasn’t enough, you have to learn to grow it too – you cannot sit back and expect that criminal acts will disappear in a societal collapse – neither will the criminals who existed before starvation set in, not to mention those that will turn criminal when their survival is on the line. – LDM

Odds ‘n Sods:

Robert C. alerted us to “a real life synopsis of what happened post-Hurricane Katrina from folks who witnessed it.”

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Where will the Dow bottom? This was recently posted at The Trader Blog: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly – Three Scenarios For The Stock Market

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We warned you about the precipitous drop in overseas shipping long before the mainstream media picked up on it: Investors shun Greek debt as shipping crisis deepens. The article begins: “Freight rates for shipping are crashing at the fastest pace ever recorded as banks shut off credit lines to the industry, precipitating a sudden crunch in world trade.”

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Sol G. sent us a link to an October article in Business Week that we had overlooked: Lehman: One Big Derivatives Mess. The full extent and end results of the Lehman derivatives fiasco probably won’t be known for several more fiscal quarters.

Notes from JWR:

I was quoted extensively in a recent article at Forbes.com, titled Surviving The Apocalypse. BTW, both the article and the “In Pictures” sidebar slide show was remarkably free of errors. Sometimes journalists manage to get things right.

Tomorrow is the last day of the “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course pre-election 33% off sale. Don’t miss out!

Today we present another entry for Round 19 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The contest prizes include:

First Prize: The writer of the best contributed article will be awarded two transferable Front Sight  “Gray” Four Day Training Course Certificates. This is an up to $4,000 value!
Second Prize: A three day course certificate from OnPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses.
Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing

Round 19 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

Adapt to Survive, by Elizabeth B.

You are incredibly mistaken if you think you can store up enough to see you through bad times. You are wrong, dead wrong. When I say store up, I’m talking, food, provisions, tools, barter equipment, and whatever.

The key to survival will be adaptation, just like in nature. Those who survive will be those who can readily adapt to a changing environment. I know many of you are sitting on little mountains of barrels, cans, packages and feel like you have an edge. Simply put, you will not be able to squirrel away enough.

What happens when the stash runs out?

I was shocked to read this week (October 31, 2008) when a SurvivalBlog reader wrote:
“Is there a good book that you can recommend on food storage for someone like me that is on a budget and wants to “do it myself”, but not go so far as ‘grow it myself?’ ”

How long will the bad times last? Who knows? What will you do when the stash runs out? Barter those silver and gold coins that no one can eat?

Survival skills depend on knowledge and practice. If you have children, take them out of soccer and dance classes and immediately put them in Girl Scouts or Boy Scouts. Look until you find a good troop or better yet, join up, take the required training, and begin your own troop. You will influence more lives than you can possibly imagine. You and your children will have outdoor living experiences that will see them through the rest of their lives. Did you ever cook your food over a wood campfire and lie on the ground scanning the night sky for meteors with the smell of smoke and coyote yelps lingering in the air? Scout troops teach children community living and cooperation, both critical survival skills.

Read everything you can until you become familiar with survival concepts and theory. Then you need to begin to practice, practicing daily. First of all, move out of your apartment into a house. If you can’t afford to buy, then you shouldn’t be storing food. Rent if you can’t buy. You don’t have enough room to practice and store your supplies in an apartment, no matter what anyone says.

Here is a short list of skills you and your loved ones need:

* Water: Harvesting, storage, filtration, sterilization

* Gardening: How to plant, save and store seed, make soil, propagate.

* Fire: Get rid of that propane tank and charcoal briquettes, practice fire-starting with a variety of materials that you find. Build many types of fires. Accumulate a couple of iron items such as a good grill or tripod, dutch oven, lifters, and work gloves … learn how to cook over coals, on a plank, in a box oven, in a trench, in a hay box, in a tin can, in a rocket stove…know how to dry and smoke … know how to build a fire anywhere on any surface and how to improvise safe surfaces. Buy as many matches as you can. Matches are an excellent storage item. They’ll never go bad and will be a high demand item.

* Shelter: Practice making shelters from as many materials you find on hand for a variety of conditions. Sleep outside in different weather as often as you can. You’ll grow to love it and will discover the night sky.

* Solar cooking. Make solar cookers from boxes, aluminum foil, glass jars. Practice, practice, practice throughout the changing seasons

* Tools: Know how to clean, sharpen, store tools; get very familiar with your ax and saw and hammer and pliers. Feel free to stock up on nails and screws and wire.

* Cooking: Unfortunately, the current generation of young adults really knows practically nothing about tasty and thrifty food preparation. This is easily remedied. You eat multiple times a day. Look on each meal as a practice event. If you have children, shut down the smorgasbord of choices for each picky eater. Everyone needs to know how to eat beans and rice with a few additions such as meat for flavoring, herbs and spices to make each meal new and palatable. Make soup a daily fare. It won’t matter if you have thousands of dollars of food stored if it is not familiar foods that people enjoy. There is no SPAM or tuna in my storage. I won’t eat SPAM, and I’m morally opposed to eating tuna due to depletion of our oceans and crashing fish populations. Learn to eat more simply now, today. Eat each meal at home, don’t eat out. Practice serving vegetarian meals at least once a day. Terrific cookbooks like Apocalypse Chow and Backpacker’s Recipes can point you in the right direction. Can you bake bread in a dutch oven? Can you make pasta with wheat and a pasta machine?

* Food. I saved this topic for last because it is so huge. First, buy some sturdy gardening tools from Craig’s List. The older ones are better. Read up, talk to gardeners, go to free community gardening events, and begin now, yesterday was already getting very, very late to learn this skill. Food is going to be much more important than just stashing and hoarding. Real freedom comes from being responsible for your own food. When you are out of the apartment, you’ll be able to prepare for your chickens. True, you might not be able to house them right now due to city or HOA regulations, but the time will come. Be ready for your little chicks and their fabulous eggs. You need to plant fruit trees specific to your zone which will thrive. It takes three years or so for fruit production. In my incredibly tiny area I have pomegranate, olive, apples, figs, blackberry, strawberries, and bananas. Look on every square inch of your yard as an opportunity for food supply. Practice container gardening — you never know. Composting and mulching cannot be overstated or overlooked. You should never throw another scrap of fruit or vegetable away again. Get a dog for the other food scraps, friendship, and protection. Invite wild birds into your garden. Learn what the sun requirements are for specific plants and what your garden can supply. Include edible native plants that you know you can serve in a pinch. I have mesquite, roses, cacti, lilies, and edible flowers. Learn to eat a huge variety of foods. Learn to prepare a huge variety of tasty foods. This will truly be the key to survival in the future. My Great Depression-era father thought that pickled pig’s feet, cornbread crumbled into buttermilk, pinto beans with cornbread, and greens were some of life’s greatest pleasures. Picky eaters will not be survivors. Complainers will not be survivors.

Finally, forget the batteries. They won’t last forever and you can’t buy/store enough for the rest of your life. You are contributing to the toxic waste stream by buying batteries. If you just insist on having a flashlight, then go buy a case of Faraday flashlights that work on the principal of magnetic induction. A radio is actually a terrific idea. Get a hand crank dynamo or solar radio. Like I said, ditch the battery idea. Prepare to adapt to a new life. [JWR Adds: Be warned that most of the Chinese-made “dynamo” hand crank radios on the market are very flimsy and are unlikely to last more than a month of daily use. I recommend the BayGen radios, made in South Africa. They are built to last.]

Critical issues such as waste removal, weapons, spirituality, residual recycling, and community need to be in the back of your mind, but that is for another essay.

As you reach for an item in the store, ask yourself this question: What if I could not buy this today or ever again, would I miss it? What could I use instead? Can I do without this today and forever? Rethink your lifestyle and prepare for another test of adaptability that may be thrown at humanity. Throughout time, we have been tested whether it has been by ice ages, wars, famine, or plague. If you can adapt, you can survive.

I’m only speaking in generalities because it is up to you to adapt to survive. You need to find out the information for yourself and think of new ways to live. Survival is not only about surviving, it is about living and enjoying life. It’s impossible to teach someone everything there is to know, at some point you have to depend on yourself. Check YouTube.com for endless videos on any subject in the world. I’ve improved my vegetable growing methods by learning from experts on YouTube. In the end, your existence will depend on your own mind and your own heart and your own hands.

[JWR Adds: While Elizabeth has made some excellent points, she has overstated her case for adaptation. There are some critical uses for both propane tanks and rechargeable batteries that justify their inclusion in preparedness planning. Granted, they represent finite supplies. But I’d rather have them in reserve for a critical situation and not need them. The inverse is not appealing. (Needing them, but not having them.) Imagine if you needed to conduct impromptu surgery. Would you prefer to perform a surgery by the light of fat oil lamps?

I disagree with her assertion about not storing extra tools. Tools will be worth their weight in gold. A lot of things can be improvised and adapted, but high quality tools–especially those with tight tolerances cannot. You can probably improvise a plow, but you cannot improvise a Unimat lathe. And consider this: With a Unimat lathe (in properly trained hands) and given enough high speed steel stock you can build just about any tool including another Unimat lathe. Thus a “stored” tool can be eminently useful for “adaptation.”

Lastly, keep in mind that preparing to survive in a warm southwestern climate is considerably different than in cloudy, cold northern climes. The colder the climate, the deeper the larder that you’ll need. (Since growing seasons are short, and in some years with early frosts you will have hardly any garden yield. Stored fuel (firewood, coal, et cetera) is similarly important in cold climates. There may come a year when you cannot cut a fresh supply of firewood–say you break a leg or have a major illness. That is why it is very important to have several years worth of firewood on hand.]

Letter Re: When Unprepared Folks Show Up on Your Doorstep

Mr. Rawles;
With the current state of the country more and more people have been stepping up their preparedness. The question I get asked most is what to do with the people who say they will be over when everything falls apart.
I know you have addressed this in the past, but it is something people need to think through with the current state we are in. With my preparedness consulting I have had story after story from preparing people of family, friends and people who know they are preparing, but do not prepare themselves saying they will be there when everything falls apart.

I have used your novel “Patriots” as a guide for how to prepare for any scenarios and it mentions giving charity to those who show up and sending the unwanted on their way and keeping those who belong or can contribute to the group. For the transients or refugees this is a very good solution to the problem, but when it comes to family and people who know you are preparing it calls for a different solution or group of solutions. I hope you can give some advice to everyone facing this problem. We can go into OPSEC when it comes to not telling folks what they are doing, but there have been mistakes made and it is hard to hide from non-preparing family and for them to understand not to talk about it or you are trying to network with people to get a group together and the information spreads.

Some of the stories I have heard are:

There have been several version of this first one, but it is basically the same falling out in a group and the unwanted plan a unwelcome return.
“We had a member of our group and he turned out to be a slob, was not preparing and thought that a case of ammo and a rifle was all you needed and they would take whatever else was needed from the weak. They politely told him that he was not welcome and would not sharing in the preparations. This person is now contacting the group, saying if it hits the fan that they “will be over”.
The group believes they will have to defend themselves from this former member who will bring his spouse and children with him.”

“We have been preparing for several years and have been trying to get family members, both close and distant involved in a group.When things go bad they [declare that they] are all coming over.
We do not have the room for the extra people in our home. We do not have enough food for the extra people. We do not have other supplies they will need to live here. They do not have the mindset to endure a long term situation nor will they contribute to the survival of the group.We already have a small group of like-minded people we have networked with and are either leaving supplies here or will be bringing their supplies when they come and we have enough for only them.”

With our networking efforts we have talked to many people and have picked up some good people to be in a group. With the economy going down the tubes we are having past contacts talking to us and they plan on showing up if it hits the fan.”

“We have had someone gossip about our preparations and now we have people saying they will be over and we do not even know these people.
How may people know we are preparing and how many are going to show up and what are they going to do to us if we turn them away or will they just take our supplies?”

Respectfully, – Ron from Ohio

JWR Replies: Based on what I read in e-mails, nearly all SurvivalBlog readers–save a few that are utter recluses that have few (or no) family ties–all go through the same thing. This most commonly happens at holiday gatherings, when “Cousin Bob” first teases you for having “that mountain of storage food in your basement”, but then slyly adds “…but I know where I’ll go when things fall apart.” This is the same Cousin Bob that has frittered away his earnings on plasma big screen HDTVs, Jet Skis, and BluRay DVDs. My advice is to be blunt and forthright. Tell Cousin Bob that he’s had the same period warning that you have had, and that he’s had comparable resources available to prepare. Depending on your predisposition, you might say: “You’ve been warned. You must make adequate preparations for your own family. Period.” Hopefully that will spur your relatives into action.

Letter Re: Useful References on Metalworking

I recommend two books to help our readers understand metalworking. They might never need these, but they’re at least useful for understanding what’s involved:.

1. Wayne Goddard’s $50 Knife Shop

2. The Modern Blacksmith

And if you want to go a step further, there’s a nice compendium called “Useful Farm Implements”, though I suspect we’ll just focus on more immediate books like “Gardening When It Counts” though I personally recommend not using animal protein powder as a soil and feed amendment [as recommended in that book]. Prions, ya know?

On a more personal note, I remain stunned that the economic crash has driven down the price of oil instead of up to the stratosphere. Stunned, I tell you. Its funny that no matter how much education you manage, how much study you do, and calculation, you can still miss things. Good call on the economic crash, BTW. You pinned it down, 10 years ago. Must feel slightly queasy to find yourself right. The irony of course is that there’s been no civil uprising mess, so the strategy isn’t working yet. I try and stay fluid and adaptable instead of committing to a single strategy for success. But I don’t have a family to protect either. Keep well and don’t let reality get you down. Best, – Inyokern

Letter Re: The CDC’s Suggestions on Preparing for Future Flu Pandemics

Mr Rawles:
My sister-in-law works for one of the large food bakeries. They make a well-known cracker that is purchased by a large portion of the US population every day. She manages health and safety for a number of their bakeries and recently attended a conference on pandemics hosted by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). The CDC is holding these conferences for companies producing staple foodstuffs as they say it isn’t “if” we will see a flu pandemic but “when”.
The conference was a real eye-opener for my sister-in-law. The CDC says that we will either have a flu pandemic or avian flu pandemic within the next 10 years (likely earlier rather than later). The following recommendations for key personnel of the bakery was provided by the CDC as they believe we will see absenteeism over 50% during a pandemic. They want food manufacturers to be able to continue production during a pandemic.
Here are the top three:
1. Have a supply of Tamiflu on hand. Roche offers companies a program that will store Tamiflu for them in advance for a fee. Roche will rotate the stock on a regular basis to guarantee freshness and ship it immediately to key personnel in the event of a pandemic. Individuals should get their physician to write a prescription and keep some on hand. Tamiflu will be in short supply during a pandemic.
2. Get a flu shot every year. The CDC is making a concerted effort to get flu shots offered to everyone, not just targeted groups anymore.
3. Get a pneumonia vaccination. Pneumonia is the actual cause of death in many flu cases. The CDC is now recommending that key personnel get this vaccine. Many flu shot clinics also offer the pneumococcal vaccine as well. You will have to be persistent in requesting it as they are hesitant to give it to the general population. The CDC is trying to limit it in order to keep it available for targeted groups.
It will be very difficult to limit contact to both other people and livestock in the event of a pandemic. By following these three recommendations, you should be able to reduce your chances of dying during a pandemic. – Rangemaster

Odds ‘n Sods:

More gloomage from Cheryl, our Economic Editor: Germans Freeze £21 Billion in Property Fund (“Nearly €30bn of German property funds were frozen between Tuesday and Friday last week in what industry experts fear could foreshadow a UK commercial real estate collapse.”) — The Federal Reserve is Inflating at 341% Per Annum — Cash Was King, Now Gold Is God — Fed Interest Rate Cut May End Up Making Matters Worse (“The Federal Open Market Committee’s half-point cut in its Federal Funds target does not address the leverage and credit issues in the banking system.”) — Gold, Faith And Credit (The Mogambo Guru) — Peter Schiff on Glenn Beck: Global Economic Crisis In Perspective

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Reader Jordan S. mentioned Wikipedia as a potential survival reference. He noted since the Internet won’t be available in a Grid Down situation, it is best to download a snapshot of the current Wikipedia articles, in HTML format sans pictures). Jordan notes: “You’ll get the current version of every article. It’s large – around 14 Gigabytes, but you can store it on DVD or an external hard drive.”

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“Luddite Jean” in England sent us these economic and news headlines: Interest rates may be cut by 1% and pundits start to recognise that their predictions were too optimistic — Government ‘spend our way out of recession’ — Faulty army-issue gun that is ‘too expensive’ to fix

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Author Michael Panzner has some follow-up commentary on the scope and implications of the next Depression: Repeat the Past (and then Some)?

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The liberties of our country, the freedoms of our civil constitution are worth defending at all hazards; and it is our duty to defend them against all attacks. We have received them as a fair inheritance from our worthy ancestors: they purchased them for us with toil and danger and expense of treasure and blood, and transmitted them to us with care and diligence. It will bring an everlasting mark of infamy on the present generation, enlightened as it is, if we should suffer them to be wrested from us by violence without a struggle, or be cheated out of them by the artifices of false and designing men." – Samuel Adams (1722 -1803)

Note from JWR:

There are just two days left in the pre-election 33% off sale for the “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. This course only rarely goes on sale, so don’t miss out on the discount price!