Economics and Investing:

Yikes! CBS Advertising Net Income Plunges 96% (Thanks to frequent content contributor F.G. for the link.)

Tom G. mentioned this piece by Karl Denninger: Blatant Monetization Uncovered: Federal Reserve bought back half of the seven-year issue this week. I ‘ve warned you that monetization (and inflation) are coming. This is just the begriming!

Reader Karl in PDX asks: Do you remember in the 1990 [gangster] film Goodfellas, by Martin Scorsese, when one of the robbery team goes out and buys a pink Cadillac for his wife with the proceeds? Robert DeNiro’s character has to step in. “Now, what did I tell you about laying low for awhile. Huh?” This news headline too familiar to be a coincidence: Goldman employees told no big purchases. “…this is a sensitive time for us, and wants to make sure that we’re not being seen living high on the hog.”

From frequent content contributor GG: Lithuanian Economy Shrank 22.4%, EU’s Worst Recession

Items from The Economatrix:

Southern States Becoming Epicenter of Job Losses

The Greenback is Broken

Is Gold Gearing Up (Again) to Break $1,000?

Skip the Happy Talk, this Depression is Just Beginning

Wealth for the Sensible (The Mogambo Guru)

Obama Administration Withholds Data on Clunkers
Most buyers not picking Ford, Chrysler, GM

Bank Regulators Dig in Against Obama Shake Up

US Stocks Retreat on Worse-Than-Expected Jobs, Services Data

Georgian Bank Says Bad Loans Surged 10 Times in Six Months, Seeking Cash

Factory Orders Increase 0.4%, Ex-Transport Increases 2.3%

Senate Poised to Add $2 Billion to “Clunkers” Program.

Biggest Recession Blunders



Odds ‘n Sods:

Steve W. and Brian M. both mentioned that there will be an EMP risks and risk mitigation conference in Niagara Falls, New York in September: EMPactAmerica. For a conference of this nature, registration is reasonably priced. The “early registration rate” deadline is August 8th. As with other public events where preppers congregate, if you attend, then wear or carry SurvivalBlog or Bennington Flag meet-up gear. You never know who you might bump into!

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Patton sent this: 34 Million Americans on Food Stamps

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From GG: More ask to carry concealed weapons; Political, economic fears drive increase

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Steve W. recommended this article from Make magazine: Cottage Economy.





Hard Times at Here–Are You Ready?

The hard economic times that I–and many others–warned you about are now here. We are clearly now in the opening stages of a full-scale depression that will last a decade or longer.

This news article (sent to me by SurvivalBlog reader Eric C.) .about an unemployed couple in Indiana is a microcosm of what we will be witnessing for the next decade. Take a few minutes to read it.

Our pampered society is in for a rude wakening. Now, at the risk of sounding unkind and judgmental, the term “white trash” comes to mind. Note that this man in Indiana had no savings, plenty of debt, and obviously no food reserves. Also note that despite his “austere” budget on unemployment insurance, he wastes hundreds of dollars per month as he smokes cigarettes, drinks soda pop, drinks beer (in large quantity), gambles, and pays for commercial car washes. His wife still carries a Blackberry with an airtime contract. Why are they buying disposable diapers, when they could be washing cloth diapers? The article also mentions that the husband has gained 40 pounds in the year since he was laid off. Did he consider planting a vegetable garden? Or washing his own car? (Both would have saved money and provided exercise.) This couple needs a serious lesson in budget priorities. They say that they are worried about their children’s school grades, yet they still have a television and XBox games. It is time for a garage sale, to sell those time-wasting gadgets. Then regularly-scheduled trips to the local library, to get their children literate!

This gent is in his thirties, yet he has ruined his health with drinking, smoking, and over-eating. He and his wife seem to view military service as a last resort for their high school senior son. Well, I have a news flash for them: Both the son and the father should have enlisted! In 2006, the US military raised its maximum age of enlistment to 42. (BTW, as the economy continues to worsen, I expect the military to raise their standards considerably and eventually begin turning away large numbers of candidates, just as they did in the 1930s.)

It is also noteworthy that this man is on anti-depressants. He is not alone. Consider this article that was sent to me by Karen H.: Antidepressant Use Doubles in US, Study finds. That is alarming just by itself, but just consider what will happen if and when the Schumer Hits the Fan, and all those patients run out of their medications. (And their booze, and their cigarettes, and their marijuana, and their MTV, and their Crackberry instant messages, and their chocolate, and their American Idol, and their Dunkin’ Donuts, and their porn, and their meth, and their soap operas, and their “Energy” drinks.) This could get very ugly, very quickly, once so many millions of suddenly very cranky, very desperate people start roaming the streets. My suggestion is: Don’t be near then, in any significant numbers. Move to hinterboonies.

In summary: I had no idea that wallowing in self-pity was such exhausting, time-consuming work. At least they have a comfortable couch and recliner. This old quote mentioned by a SurvivalBlog reader sums up their situation: “The Lord does not bless the farmer who leans on his hoe.”

Here is my advice for SurvivalBlog readers on how to survive the currently unfolding Depression:

  • Work cheerfully and diligently. It is slackers that find themselves unemployed first.
  • Get debt free and stay debt free. Take on no new indebtedness, and pay down the debts you already have.
  • Learn to distinguish essentials from non-essentials.
  • Write a budget, and stick to it. Whittle it, as necessary, to avoid debt.
  • Sell off your useless Beanie babies and assorted knickknacks.
  • Increase your savings
  • Build up your food storage
  • Diversify your investments. Don’t put all your money in one bank.
  • Check your bank or S&L’s safety rating at TheStreet.com. Check your stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, and insurers, while you are at it.)
  • Hedge your investments with some tangibles
  • Sell off any vacation or rental properties that don’t have retreat potential
  • If you move, then it should be to a place near a secure job, and preferably to a piece of farm or ranch land that provides some self-sufficiency.
  • Develop a second stream of income.
  • Release yourself from your addictions. Pray fervently, and if need be, seek help.
  • Plant a garden.
  • Stay in shape.
  • Be willing to accept work that is lower paying or less appealing
  • Be charitable.
  • Most importantly: Get right with God. (Believe, repent of your sin, confess Jesus as your savior, and be baptized.) It is time to pray hard, folks! I believe in predestination. If you are reading this, and feel convicted to make change in your life, then you are fulfilling what God has had planned for you since “before the foundations of the Earth.”

Forgive me for ranting, but that article about the unemployed family in Indiana got me a bit riled up.

One suggestion, in closing: If you get laid-off, do not move to a relative’s basement in Michigan. Instead, move to where you can find work, even if it hard, “rolled up sleeves” work.



Letter Re: Advice on Storing Precious Metals–Are Safe Deposit Boxes Safe?

Good Morning.
I have been diversifying my investments, with a strong emphasis on gold and pre-1965 [silver] coins. Currently, the coins are stored in a bank safe deposit box.

Can you tell me, in the event of a “bank holiday” will safe deposit boxes be available? In other words, I understand that they won’t allow me to withdraw cash from my account (my understanding of the term, bank holiday). But, would the bank allow customers access to the safe deposit boxes to withdraw whatever might be stored in the vault?

Thanks for all you do. Keep up the good work. – RBH

JWR Replies: No, bank boxes will probably be unavailable, since in bank holiday, bank lobbies will be closed to the public. In fact, the “worst case” for hard money preppers would be the combination of a bank holiday and a simultaneous gold confiscation a la 1933. I can foresee that you would only have access to your safe deposit box under the watchful eye of a sworn officer, on your first deposit box access following a gold seizure–either by executive order or by an act of congress. So your options include private (non-bank vault companies–very few and far between, unless you live in Las Vegas), or hidden storage caches at home. I prefer the latter. For details, see this piece that I wrote about wall and door caches in SurvivalBlog.

Coincidentally, reader Mike O. recently sent me the link to this LifeHacker article: Where and How to Safely Hide Cash in Your Home. And soon after, reader Andrew D. sent this: Seven Secret Places to Hide Cash in Your Home. You gotta love synchronicity.





Economics and Investing:

Susan Z. recommended this piece by Bob Chapman: And All the Kings’ Horses and All the King’s Men…

GG mentioned Mish Shedlock’s latest piece: Weekly Unemployment Claims Portend Disaster

Also from GG: Federal tax revenues plummeting. I can foresee the reinstitution of pre-Kennedy-era marginal tax rates (more than 50%) in the next few years. This is just one more good reason to invest in tangibles. They’ll heavily tax interest income, but you don’t pay taxes on tangibles until you sell them.

Several items from frequent content contributor Karen H.:

Cathay Pacific to Park Six Passenger Planes After 27% Sales Slump ““We still cannot see any signs of any pickup in business,” Chairman Christopher Pratt told reporters in Hong Kong today.

Adidas Q2 Net Profit Falls 93 Percent

P&G Fourth-Quarter Profit Declines as Consumers Curb Spending

ADP Says U.S. Companies Decrease Payrolls by 371,000 “The estimated 371,000 drop, higher than economists forecast, followed a revised 463,000 drop the prior month, figures from ADP Employer Services showed today.”

Farmland Falls for First Time Since 1987 “Farmland prices in the U.S., which advanced for 21 years, couldn’t escape the worst plunge in real estate since the Great Depression.”

Items from The Economatrix:

Investors Nudge Rally Forward with Small Gains

Mortgage Aid Program Helping Fraction of Borrowers

Florida-based Mortgage Company Suspended A prominent U.S. mortgage company is being investigated by the Housing and Urban Development Department after allegedly failing to submit a required financial report, raising concerns of fraud. The Federal Housing Administration on Tuesday suspended Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corp. from originating new FHA-insured mortgages, HUD said in a news release.

The Ultimate Suckers Rally: Record-breaking 50% Stock Market Rally in 5 Months; Extreme Market Volatility Occurs in Deep Economic Recessions and Depressions

Good-bye Dollar, Hello Gold

Fed to Strengthen Bank Examination with Expert Teams

American Incomes Head Down, Threatening Recovery in Spending

Banking Bonuses is Bubble Yet to Burst
“Even after receiving billions in government money to rescue the industry, whose bonus culture has been nailed as one of the causes of the crisis of 2008, the bankers have slipped right back into their old ways. And yet the one lesson we can draw from the last year is that all bubbles burst eventually. The bonus juggernaut is staying afloat on a wave of cheap money and taxpayer support. That will be withdrawn one day, and the fallout will be huge.”

Sotheby’s Sees Bottom for Art Market After Quarterly Profit Declines 87%



Odds ‘n Sods:

10 Things You Need to Know to Live on the Streets

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From Cheryl: Russian Subs Patrolling Off East Coast

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Outcry Causes Obama Administration To Change Language on Cash for Clunkers Website

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Hawaiian K. mentioned a piece by Jack Spirko, posted over at LRC: Modern Survivalism Tenet Number Five; Food stored is an exceptional investment. You simply can’t lose by storing additional food that you use on a regular basis



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Naturally the advance planning that we did on this thing belongs on the credit side of the ledger. So also does the venture into night flying, although in the final analysis the only real effect it had on this operation was to hold us in the area for one more night. Had we found the U-505 at night, there would have been no possibility of capture—that boarding idea was improbable enough in broad daylight, it was impossible at night.

This whole operation is an example of the fact that a military commander controls events only up to a certain point. He can anticipate certain things, perhaps even set the stage for them to happen, and can be ready to cash in on them if they do happen. But whether they will happen or not depends on many things over which he has no control. One is what goes on in the other commander’s mind and another is what goes on in his own. Both of these mental processes are subject to influence from above, or by Divine sufferance, from below. I am not trying to say that we have no control over our destiny on this earth. But I do say that in many things we control it only up to a certain point. Beyond that point nebulous things which occur inside men’s brains decide the issue. In this particular instance, I speak from firsthand experience when I say the stuff that ran through my mind for a week or so was all wrong, but the final result was very good….

The only moral I can see to all this is to plan your operations carefully, get the best advice you can from experts, fix it so that if certain things happen, you will not be caught flat-footed, and then, rely on the motto we have stamped on all our pennies—’In God We Trust.’” – From Twenty Million Tons Under the Sea, by Rear Admiral Daniel V Gallery . In June of 1944, Gallery’s Naval Task Group Task Group 22.3 boarded and captured the German submarine U-505, the first capture of an enemy man-of-war at sea since 1915, taken as a Prize of War and still on public display, at the Museum of Science and Industry in Chicago.



Notes from JWR:

I just heard that JRM, the author of the recent article “A Prepper Husband and a Stubborn Wife,” has been tapped for a special “Publisher’s Award” by Jake Stafford, the Publisher at Arbogast Publishing. JRM will receive a complimentary copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. Congrats!

Today we present another entry for Round 24 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) and C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $345 value)

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 24 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Incubating and Hatching Eggs for Self Reliance, by Jason C.

I recently decided to try to add to my skill set by doing something I had not tried before. Raising birds from eggs. I have included raising animals as part of my long term survival plan for TEOTWAWKI. And in my usual fashion I needed to try it first to feel comfortable in listing it as a skill to be used if the situation arose.

There are many reasons that would require the need to hatch birds from eggs. Even if you have your flock already, what would happen if they were to become sick and die leaving you with just eggs? Or if a fox got into the henhouse (literally) and ate all your adult birds. Or a neighbor barters with you for some eggs but doesn’t have enough adult birds to spare. I even thought about the wild birds and wondered if I were to find a nest with duck or goose eggs would I have the skills to utilize these resources.

With my limited knowledge on the subject my first stop was a few internet searches to get some basic information on supplies. What I found was the need for an incubator. This is a container that is made to maintain a steady temperature and humidity for the hatching eggs. This can be as simple as a converted cooler for a few dozen eggs, or as elaborate as a large commercial incubator to handle hundreds or thousands. With preparedness in mind I found plans for converting an old refrigerator into a suitable incubator. (There are many plans available on a variety of web sites for you to choose which might fit your needs) I also came across a commercially available incubator call the “Hovabator”. I was impressed with this model and decided to order it as the cost was minimal and included all the needed parts including a thermometer. When it was delivered I was pleased and impressed with the incubator as well as the detailed instructions and helpful hints. This unit uses standard household 110 volt power however it requires very little power and I did run it for a few days on a deep cycle marine battery hooked to a 750 watt power inverter. After three days there was almost no power loss shown on my volt meter. I would estimate that the battery would easily run this incubator for two weeks before needing to be swapped for a charged battery. However I did set it up in my garage with an average summer time temperature of around 88 degrees, so it required less heating than if running during a cooler season. The instructions suggested a temperature of 100-101 degrees for most species of game birds. Once I had the incubator set up, I ran it for a few weeks to check the reliability. After the initial trial it was now time to pick my eggs.

For my first shot at hatching I wanted to pick a species that would be common for my area but would also be something that I may come across in the wild. And of course cost would be a consideration as well. I first thought quail eggs would be interesting, but they are such a small bird that a large number would be needed to use as a food source. I finally decided on the Eastern Wild Turkey. We have a great population of these game birds on our hunting lease and I thought with their size that the food value would be high. I searched for a company that could supply me with a dozen eggs for the first hatch. I located several breeders but chose B&D Game Farm , based on their informative web site.

I would like to recommend this farm and their quality products. I ordered a dozen eggs online for less than I could buy two frozen turkeys at the grocery store. I did have to wait an extra week for delivery as one of the owners explained over the phone that their wild turkey flock had slowed down on their laying and that a lot of people had been ordering this breed from them. Once the eggs arrived I was pleased to see all the additional information that came along with these eggs. Including a detailed hatching booklet with specific care instructions.

Now it was time to begin the incubation. The eggs were placed in the incubator at 100 degrees. I also added approximately ½ cup of water to the bottom of the tray to keep the humidity high enough. Suggested humidity is 50% up until the last few days where a slight increase is desirable. Water was added every three to four days as needed. Each egg was placed on the tray and was marked with an “X” on one side and an “O” on the other using a #2 pencil. The instructions for the turkey eggs recommended turning the eggs 2-5 times per day and the X’s and O’s would help me to keep track of which side was up. I would recommend at this point that if you do want to hatch a large quantity that you invest in an automatic turner for your incubator. Turning the eggs by hand everyday was fun the first few days and after that become a chore I would pass on to the kids.

The turkeys hatched in 28 days. There are many birds that will hatch sooner and a few that will take longer, but most will be between 14-30 days. Chickens are 21 days, and quail are 14 days. It is best to find out what your chosen breed will be because it is recommended that you stop turning them 2-3 days before they hatch.

Small cracks and then small holes began appearing the morning of the 28th day. The turkeys were trying to get out. Unfortunately the kids wanted to try to help them and we lost one to slippery fingers. Another helpful hint: Do not try to help the chicks by breaking their eggs. They will do fine by themselves if the chicks are healthy. Out of the dozen eggs we lost one to a cracking early on and another to clumsiness and three did not hatch at all, but considering this to be my first try I felt good to have eight out of twelve successfully hatch out. For the poults (turkey chicks) it is okay to leave them in the incubator for up to 24 hours after hatching for them to stay warm and dry off, but then they need to be moved to a brooder or a warmed enclosure. Again with summer temperatures in the south being on the warm side I used a cardboard box and hung a light bulb placed 15” over the box for warmth at night. You may need to have a more elaborate set up in the winter months or in a cooler climate.

Feeding and watering is a simple process and commercially available feed or “scratch” is very inexpensive and available at any “feed and seed” store. Although it appears to be a mix of crushed grains with corn being the main ingredient. An older gentlemen at the feed store mentioned he used to take two handfuls of corn to one handful of wheat and grind until almost a powder when he was feeding his chicks. For those of you who require more technical information a meat bird is recommended to have a diet of at least 18-25% protein base to help it reach its full weight. The feeding trays and water trays should be very shallow as the birds will peck and get it all over themselves [or drown] if given to them in deep trays.

I lost two more birds in the first week but after that they have been growing nicely. I expect them to be full size in another 4-6 months. I have shot wild turkeys upwards of twenty pounds and with these birds being farm raised I hope they will be at least that weight.

I constructed a pen using hardware cloth nailed to poles. It is four feet high and approximately 20’x10’. I also added an old shrub and a three sided wooden box to help give them some protection for inside the enclosure. Right now a few handfuls of feed thrown in the enclosure is about all that is needed and of course a water tray. I do plan on raking out the enclosure each week and laying some straw or sawdust in the bottom.

This experiment has taught me several things. The most important of which is the confidence and basic techniques of raising birds for food in a TEOTWAWKI situation. I plan on doing several more test runs of a variety of birds. My wife has mentioned she would like a few peacocks to add color to our yard. But I’m thinking maybe a few guinea hens or regular laying hens for the next batch. At the very least we will end up with a few chicken dinners and eggs to go with the venison sausage that I made last fall.



Letter Re: Saving Clad Dimes and Quarters?

Sir,
I have accumulated ‘some’ pre-1965 silver. Not the $1,000 face value per family member as seems to be the benchmark but I do have a bit over $1,400 face value and a few gold coins (about two ounces of gold, in combined weight) for my family.

Someone told me that even post-1964 dimes and quarters (and of course pennies and nickels for their real metal value) would have ‘some’ value if the dollar went bust. I do not understand how this can be but I have been saving coins nonetheless.

My question is am I better to take the ‘too heavy to lift’ jar of quarters and dimes I have and buy more pre-1965 junk silver or more food with it rather then hold it hoping it will have value ‘after the fall’ ?
I have no problem holding it as is if that is ‘smart’ in regards to my total survival package. Thanks, – PW

JWR Replies: Depending on the situation the “value” of coins may someday be a matter of their base metal content, but they also have face value. A post-1964 US dime or quarter is a pitiful joke, because it is just a silver-plated copper slug. You are much better off with nickels, or pre-1982 pennies, in terms of face value versus base metal value. See www.coinflation.com for details.

Imagine a future currency reform. Say that inflation sets in and eventually a zero is lopped off the currency. So new paper Federal Reserve notes are issued, and the old notes are recalled for a 10-for-1 exchange. Typically, when such currency transitions occur, the old coins would still circulate at face value, So you’d have an overnight 10X windfall on all coins in your possession, based on their retained face value. (Paper money is relatively easy for a government to switch, but coinage is not!)

My advice os cash in your copper dimes and quarters, and replace them with pre-’65 silver, or perhaps nickels (of any mint date) if you have the storage space. This way you’ll have both a tangible hedge on inflation, and some insurance in the event of a currency re-issue.



Influenza Pandemic Update:

Reader Pete A. sent us a link to an updated interactive map: Tracking the global spread of swine flu

First Wave of Swine Flu Peaks in UK

Mexico registers big jump in swine flu cases

Swine Flu Strategy Under Revision “U.S. authorities will release within days other ‘community-mitigation”‘measures, intended to help keep businesses operating, help hospitals avoid being overwhelmed and guide local authorities in deciding whether to cancel public events, officials said.”



Economics and Investing:

Most of you have noticed the recent price action in silver and gold. Typically, the precious metals go through “Summer Doldrums” each year, with light trading and moderated prices. But not this year! One can only ask: if the market this strong in August, then how will it be in November, as the US Dollar Index (USDI) continues to slide? I hope that you took my advice and bought silver when it was recently under $12.50 per ounce. In my estimation even at $14.50 per ounce, silver is still a bargain. As I’ve often written, buy on the dips.

BusinessWeek says huge wave of corporate Bankruptcies coming. (Thanks to GG for the link.)

Rich suggest this: How Safe is My FDIC-Insured Bank Account?

While our politics are disparate, I’m only rarely disappointed by the analysis and commentary presented by Charles Hugh Smith’s Of Two Minds blog. Here is a recent post: “The Royal Scam” by Anonymous Correspondent

Items from The Economatrix:

Postal Service Considers Closings, Consolidations

Tax Revenues Post Biggest Drop Since The Great Depression

Mainstream Media Economic Recovery Propaganda, False Profits and Some Surprises

Do Not Be Fooled: Another Major Economic Collapse Could Be Coming Sooner than Many Think

Prolonged Aid to Unemployed to Run Out By Year’s End

Alabama’s Jefferson County Makes Massive Job Cuts Lays off 2/3s of 3,600 employees because of plummeting revenues.

New Stimulus? White House to Extend Jobless Aid?



Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader WW says: “Welcome to the Third World, America”: Horse slaughters have Miami-area owners on edge

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Beware march of the killer robots, expert warns
. (Thanks to FG for the lead.)

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Hey, I just noticed that I finally logged my first reader in Cuba! So it is time for an experiment: Fidel Castro is expected to die before the end of August, but will not be succeeded by Hermano Raúl Modesto. (I’ll bet that I suddenly get several more mapped hits in “Cuber”. But of course, they will all just be los escuchas –the DGI‘s Internet gnomes.)

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Highlighted by reader Adam D.: Bomb shelter industry sees spike in sales