Odds ‘n Sods:

What varmint is killing your chickens? Ellen F. suggested this informative predation web site.

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Slate conducts a thought experiment: The End of America 2009: How it will happen.

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In case you missed it when it aired in June, the US ABC television network’s “what if” documentary Earth 2100 has been posted to YouTube. Although it has plenty of Al Gore-style guilt-ridden “we ruined the environment” hand-wringing, it is still worth watching.

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Some rules of civilization (outside of a handful of cruel exceptions like the Ik tribesmen) are almost universal: Living in Tents, and by the Rules, Under a Bridge. (Thanks to “Ant” for the link.)



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“How quiet, calm, and solemn, not at all like when I was running,” thought Prince Andrei, “not at like when we were running, shouting, and fighting; not at all like when the Frenchman and the artillerist, with angry and frightened faces, were pulling at the swab – it’s quite different the way the clouds creep across this lofty, infinite sky. How is it I haven’t seen this lofty sky before? And how happy I am that I’ve finally come to know it. Yes! everything is empty, everything is a deception, except this infinite sky. There is nothing, nothing except that. But there is not even that, there is nothing except silence, tranquility. And thank God!…” – Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace Volume 1, Part Three, Chapter XVII



Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 24 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) and C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $345 value)

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 24 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Preparedness on a Very Tight Budget, by Shane M.

I see it several times a week: What gun should I get? How much ammo should I have? How big should my garden be? Should I get gold or silver? And on and on it goes, week after week. More and more people are becoming “aware,” and are seeking the advice of those of us who have “been there, done that.” There is so much great information out there to answer the plethora of those types of questions. Invariably, someone eventually asks, “how do I afford that?” There are other variations of this question as well, but it all boils down to the same thing in the end. Many of us, including myself, are not monetarily wealthy. Considering that most of the country is in debt, that means that many survivalists, especially those new to the subject, are in debt. With the sudden realizations smacking them about the head and chest, combined with the required urgency of the situation, people want to get the necessary preparations in short order, but are not sure how to do it with limited funds.

It can be done. Just like your 401(k) investments, it happens a little bit at a time. I do not know a single survivalist that just bought into the life with just one check from the checkbook. This is not a life you just buy into in a day. So rest assured that those of us who are well prepared did so over time, with trail and error, money, sweat, and bruised egos. You have an advantage that we did not have – the internet. You can learn from us, from our mistakes and our wisdom through the internet and gain valuable insight, hopefully without many monetary mistakes. Absorbing this knowledge is your first key to being able to “afford” preparations.

Beans, bullets, Band-Aids has been articulated many times and in many ways. Now, how do I afford it all? A budget and prioritizing are the answers. Did I just hear you moan? I am sorry, but you cannot do it without a budget and setting your priorities to pay down debt and acquire preparations. All other things go to the bottom of the list. I have never in my life made more than $40,000 in a year. Looking at my last 22 years of taxable income statements, it shows that my average yearly pay is just over $18,000 per year. This is not because I do not have the ability to earn much more, it is because I choose to live life and not be a slave to societal pressures to have a career. I have still managed to prepare with miniscule funds, debt, and a family by setting my priorities and keeping a strict budget.

So, how do I get started?

  1. Stop using credit cards and credit – forever!
  2. Stop frivolous spending immediately – no eating out, no movies, no cable, no manicures, no vacations, no guys’ night out, etc. Either you are serious about preparing, or you are a party-goer. Which is it?
  3. Establish an emergency fund, in cash of at least $1,000. This is not spending money. This is to cover an inevitable visit from Murphy, Sod, or Finagle.
  4. Document every dollar you spend to find out where your money is going.
  5. Create a budget that outlines your debts and expenses. This should be prioritized with Food, Water, Shelter, and Transportation at the top. These are the bills that get paid first. Other bills, debts, and expenses get laid out in order of importance. When you add up your bills and expenses, if the number is larger than your bring home paycheck, you need to get another job. If the number is smaller, this money is used for getting your preparations. If your total is equal to you take home pay, tighten you belt.
  6. Tighten you belt – go over your expenses and see where you can cut. Everyone has things they can cut. Eliminate anything that is not necessary. Shop for better deals on phone services, electricity, etc. Change the thermostat a few degrees, unplug appliances when not in use, shop at different stores, use coupons, purchase used, etc.

Now that you are started with properly managing your money, it is time to make lists for preparations. Food should be the first thing on the list, followed closely by defense (guns, ammo, and training) and medical supplies and training. Clothes, shoes, coats, etc. should also be on the list along with communications gear. There are plenty of other things to put on your lists, and much of it has been discussed on this blog. Now that you have your lists of things to get, research real costs of these items and document your findings.

What do I mean by real costs? In the business world, this is called total cost and is the actual cost of an item, shipping, storage, and upkeep of the item. You need to know all costs involved for every item on your lists. Fifty pounds of triple cleaned oats may cost you $12.50 from you local supplier, but to put it up long-term, you will need a bucket, mylar bag, and oxygen absorbers. You also need to know where you are going to store it, and any associated costs to keep it stored. Some items may require a climate-controlled environment for long-term sustainability and this cost may be separate from your home costs depending on your situation.

You can severely cut into the total cost of preparations by researching, pooling resources with other preppers, and working as a team to put up those preparations. You can get bulk discounts by purchasing case lots, pallet lots, and purchasing seconds. This goes not just for food, but also for guns, ammo, clothes, seeds, construction materials, etc. Write down the price quotes you get, the name of the business, the phone number, and with whom you spoke. After the first few calls, it will get easier and become enjoyable. If you have friends, break up the lists and put others in charge of researching a subject. A big thing to remember when researching your future purchases: businesses must sell products to stay in business, but you are not required to buy – most things are negotiable.

So, how did I do it? Using all of the above, I started by allotting $10 per weekly trip to the grocery store to get canned goods. These were put away for emergencies. Other money was saved until I had enough to purchase an item at the top of my list (i.e. a rifle), and then the process started over. Later, I learned that I needed to set a budget for my weekly grocery trip and make a list for that as well. Since I was keeping track of every dollar I spent, I noticed that my weekly shopping trip expenditures were erratic, fluctuating between $90 and $190 per week plus my $10 preps. So, I made a list for the week’s groceries and set a [weekly] budget of $125. The first few months of this were hard. I had to make concessions, purchase lesser cuts of meat, off-brands, or simply cut certain things altogether. After a year of doing it this way, we were spending less than $75 per week to feed a family of four. What do you think we do with the extra money we were spending at the grocery store? That’s right, it buys more preps every week.

I sold my full sized four-door truck with payments, which freed up $430 per month, and paid cash for an early 1990s model beater S-10 Blazer. Is it as nice as my truck was? Not even close. Does it get me where I need to go? Absolutely. What do you think I did with the extra $430 per month? Right again, I bought more preps. Every time we pay off a debt, the money we were paying towards it gets put towards another debt, until it is paid off. Then all of that money goes to the next debt and so on, until suddenly, no more debt. Every extra dollar we got, paid for a prep or went to a debt.

I also save the required money and purchase exactly what I want, not something to get me by. Always buy what you want. Never purchase something that you think you want or something inferior. I see others do this all the time. This is the best way to waste your money. I see others with slim budgets purchase a Mosin Nagant and a tin of ammo, simply because they wanted to have something, when they really wanted a M1A or an AR-15. If I want an expensive rifle, or high quality tent, I stay patient and save the required amount of money and get exactly what I want. I learned this lesson the hard way, so you shouldn’t have to.

If you were as prepared as you thought you could be, and TEOTWAWKI came to pass, you would do everything in your power to properly manage your resources and hopefully ride out the storm. You would document all of you food, guns, ammo, and supplies. You would make plans on how best to utilize what you had, disseminate those plans to your family (and friends) and make certain that those plans were followed. Well, TEOTWAWKI has not come to pass, but all of the ingredients required to survive are the same ingredients needed to prepare to survive. Document what you have in monetary means, make plans to best utilize those means, disseminate those plans to your family, and make sure everyone sticks to the plan. Before you know it, you will be well stocked and supplied.

 



Two Letters Re: Advice on Storing Precious Metals–Are Safe Deposit Boxes Safe?

Hello Jim,
I think the problem with the links readers sent you about how and where to hide precious metals, cash, etc., miss the most important point–it’s not the hiding place itself, but how inaccessible or well-concealed the hiding place is. Given enough time, anyone who knows what kind of faux storage containers to look for (e.g., a can of soup) will naturally check there first. Unless items are stashed away in your bug-out location, burglars will typically want to get in and out of a house as quickly as possible.My recommendation would be to not only install a floor safe in [a dry] basement or in a corner of the house, but to also make that spot as inaccessible as possible under normal circumstances. Install the safe in the far back corner of the basement, then stack as much clutter as possible on top of the spot–what thief worth his trade is going to waste his time moving dozens of boxes of Christmas ornaments, old clothes, books and furniture to see if there might be a safe underneath everything? In the meantime, small stashes of precious metals and other valuables can be hidden in various unlikely spots around the house [for use] until the home’s residents get a chance to go down and move all the clutter to access the safe. It might sound like way more work than it’s worth for some people, but it’s a lot easier than trying to replenish stuff that should’ve been hidden in such a place to begin with. – Chad S.

James,
I really appreciate your blog and the info. God bless you for it. Regarding the articles that you mention and link “Seven Secret Places to Hide Cash in Your Home“; I don’t believe [this article] is completely sound advice.

First, now that the information is out in the open, on the public Internet, none of those options are still valid as protection against thieves. Granted, probably not many actually surf those type of blogs. However, with thieves something like that travel by word of mouth very rapidly. In fact, a close friend of mine who is a corrections officer at Federal penitentiary refers to the institution as a” college for bad guys”.

Secondly, none of the seven options offer protection against fire. Additionally, insurance companies do not cover cash losses on their policies.

What are some viable options? Personally, I use a heavy fire-proof gun safe, that contains a smaller water-proof and fire-proof safe inside it for my important papers, cash, and gold coins. With that combination, I have several hours of fire-protection. Another option I’m considering is burying some cash in a sealed in ziploc bags inside a PVC container somewhere outside where it is unlikely to be accidentally discovered by digging.

Just my initial thoughts. Again, I really appreciate the information and your efforts. May God bless you and your family. In Christ, – S.R. in Kentucky



Economics and Investing:

Yikes! CBS Advertising Net Income Plunges 96% (Thanks to frequent content contributor F.G. for the link.)

Tom G. mentioned this piece by Karl Denninger: Blatant Monetization Uncovered: Federal Reserve bought back half of the seven-year issue this week. I ‘ve warned you that monetization (and inflation) are coming. This is just the begriming!

Reader Karl in PDX asks: Do you remember in the 1990 [gangster] film Goodfellas, by Martin Scorsese, when one of the robbery team goes out and buys a pink Cadillac for his wife with the proceeds? Robert DeNiro’s character has to step in. “Now, what did I tell you about laying low for awhile. Huh?” This news headline too familiar to be a coincidence: Goldman employees told no big purchases. “…this is a sensitive time for us, and wants to make sure that we’re not being seen living high on the hog.”

From frequent content contributor GG: Lithuanian Economy Shrank 22.4%, EU’s Worst Recession

Items from The Economatrix:

Southern States Becoming Epicenter of Job Losses

The Greenback is Broken

Is Gold Gearing Up (Again) to Break $1,000?

Skip the Happy Talk, this Depression is Just Beginning

Wealth for the Sensible (The Mogambo Guru)

Obama Administration Withholds Data on Clunkers
Most buyers not picking Ford, Chrysler, GM

Bank Regulators Dig in Against Obama Shake Up

US Stocks Retreat on Worse-Than-Expected Jobs, Services Data

Georgian Bank Says Bad Loans Surged 10 Times in Six Months, Seeking Cash

Factory Orders Increase 0.4%, Ex-Transport Increases 2.3%

Senate Poised to Add $2 Billion to “Clunkers” Program.

Biggest Recession Blunders



Odds ‘n Sods:

Steve W. and Brian M. both mentioned that there will be an EMP risks and risk mitigation conference in Niagara Falls, New York in September: EMPactAmerica. For a conference of this nature, registration is reasonably priced. The “early registration rate” deadline is August 8th. As with other public events where preppers congregate, if you attend, then wear or carry SurvivalBlog or Bennington Flag meet-up gear. You never know who you might bump into!

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Patton sent this: 34 Million Americans on Food Stamps

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From GG: More ask to carry concealed weapons; Political, economic fears drive increase

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Steve W. recommended this article from Make magazine: Cottage Economy.





Hard Times at Here–Are You Ready?

The hard economic times that I–and many others–warned you about are now here. We are clearly now in the opening stages of a full-scale depression that will last a decade or longer.

This news article (sent to me by SurvivalBlog reader Eric C.) .about an unemployed couple in Indiana is a microcosm of what we will be witnessing for the next decade. Take a few minutes to read it.

Our pampered society is in for a rude wakening. Now, at the risk of sounding unkind and judgmental, the term “white trash” comes to mind. Note that this man in Indiana had no savings, plenty of debt, and obviously no food reserves. Also note that despite his “austere” budget on unemployment insurance, he wastes hundreds of dollars per month as he smokes cigarettes, drinks soda pop, drinks beer (in large quantity), gambles, and pays for commercial car washes. His wife still carries a Blackberry with an airtime contract. Why are they buying disposable diapers, when they could be washing cloth diapers? The article also mentions that the husband has gained 40 pounds in the year since he was laid off. Did he consider planting a vegetable garden? Or washing his own car? (Both would have saved money and provided exercise.) This couple needs a serious lesson in budget priorities. They say that they are worried about their children’s school grades, yet they still have a television and XBox games. It is time for a garage sale, to sell those time-wasting gadgets. Then regularly-scheduled trips to the local library, to get their children literate!

This gent is in his thirties, yet he has ruined his health with drinking, smoking, and over-eating. He and his wife seem to view military service as a last resort for their high school senior son. Well, I have a news flash for them: Both the son and the father should have enlisted! In 2006, the US military raised its maximum age of enlistment to 42. (BTW, as the economy continues to worsen, I expect the military to raise their standards considerably and eventually begin turning away large numbers of candidates, just as they did in the 1930s.)

It is also noteworthy that this man is on anti-depressants. He is not alone. Consider this article that was sent to me by Karen H.: Antidepressant Use Doubles in US, Study finds. That is alarming just by itself, but just consider what will happen if and when the Schumer Hits the Fan, and all those patients run out of their medications. (And their booze, and their cigarettes, and their marijuana, and their MTV, and their Crackberry instant messages, and their chocolate, and their American Idol, and their Dunkin’ Donuts, and their porn, and their meth, and their soap operas, and their “Energy” drinks.) This could get very ugly, very quickly, once so many millions of suddenly very cranky, very desperate people start roaming the streets. My suggestion is: Don’t be near then, in any significant numbers. Move to hinterboonies.

In summary: I had no idea that wallowing in self-pity was such exhausting, time-consuming work. At least they have a comfortable couch and recliner. This old quote mentioned by a SurvivalBlog reader sums up their situation: “The Lord does not bless the farmer who leans on his hoe.”

Here is my advice for SurvivalBlog readers on how to survive the currently unfolding Depression:

  • Work cheerfully and diligently. It is slackers that find themselves unemployed first.
  • Get debt free and stay debt free. Take on no new indebtedness, and pay down the debts you already have.
  • Learn to distinguish essentials from non-essentials.
  • Write a budget, and stick to it. Whittle it, as necessary, to avoid debt.
  • Sell off your useless Beanie babies and assorted knickknacks.
  • Increase your savings
  • Build up your food storage
  • Diversify your investments. Don’t put all your money in one bank.
  • Check your bank or S&L’s safety rating at TheStreet.com. Check your stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, and insurers, while you are at it.)
  • Hedge your investments with some tangibles
  • Sell off any vacation or rental properties that don’t have retreat potential
  • If you move, then it should be to a place near a secure job, and preferably to a piece of farm or ranch land that provides some self-sufficiency.
  • Develop a second stream of income.
  • Release yourself from your addictions. Pray fervently, and if need be, seek help.
  • Plant a garden.
  • Stay in shape.
  • Be willing to accept work that is lower paying or less appealing
  • Be charitable.
  • Most importantly: Get right with God. (Believe, repent of your sin, confess Jesus as your savior, and be baptized.) It is time to pray hard, folks! I believe in predestination. If you are reading this, and feel convicted to make change in your life, then you are fulfilling what God has had planned for you since “before the foundations of the Earth.”

Forgive me for ranting, but that article about the unemployed family in Indiana got me a bit riled up.

One suggestion, in closing: If you get laid-off, do not move to a relative’s basement in Michigan. Instead, move to where you can find work, even if it hard, “rolled up sleeves” work.



Letter Re: Advice on Storing Precious Metals–Are Safe Deposit Boxes Safe?

Good Morning.
I have been diversifying my investments, with a strong emphasis on gold and pre-1965 [silver] coins. Currently, the coins are stored in a bank safe deposit box.

Can you tell me, in the event of a “bank holiday” will safe deposit boxes be available? In other words, I understand that they won’t allow me to withdraw cash from my account (my understanding of the term, bank holiday). But, would the bank allow customers access to the safe deposit boxes to withdraw whatever might be stored in the vault?

Thanks for all you do. Keep up the good work. – RBH

JWR Replies: No, bank boxes will probably be unavailable, since in bank holiday, bank lobbies will be closed to the public. In fact, the “worst case” for hard money preppers would be the combination of a bank holiday and a simultaneous gold confiscation a la 1933. I can foresee that you would only have access to your safe deposit box under the watchful eye of a sworn officer, on your first deposit box access following a gold seizure–either by executive order or by an act of congress. So your options include private (non-bank vault companies–very few and far between, unless you live in Las Vegas), or hidden storage caches at home. I prefer the latter. For details, see this piece that I wrote about wall and door caches in SurvivalBlog.

Coincidentally, reader Mike O. recently sent me the link to this LifeHacker article: Where and How to Safely Hide Cash in Your Home. And soon after, reader Andrew D. sent this: Seven Secret Places to Hide Cash in Your Home. You gotta love synchronicity.





Economics and Investing:

Susan Z. recommended this piece by Bob Chapman: And All the Kings’ Horses and All the King’s Men…

GG mentioned Mish Shedlock’s latest piece: Weekly Unemployment Claims Portend Disaster

Also from GG: Federal tax revenues plummeting. I can foresee the reinstitution of pre-Kennedy-era marginal tax rates (more than 50%) in the next few years. This is just one more good reason to invest in tangibles. They’ll heavily tax interest income, but you don’t pay taxes on tangibles until you sell them.

Several items from frequent content contributor Karen H.:

Cathay Pacific to Park Six Passenger Planes After 27% Sales Slump ““We still cannot see any signs of any pickup in business,” Chairman Christopher Pratt told reporters in Hong Kong today.

Adidas Q2 Net Profit Falls 93 Percent

P&G Fourth-Quarter Profit Declines as Consumers Curb Spending

ADP Says U.S. Companies Decrease Payrolls by 371,000 “The estimated 371,000 drop, higher than economists forecast, followed a revised 463,000 drop the prior month, figures from ADP Employer Services showed today.”

Farmland Falls for First Time Since 1987 “Farmland prices in the U.S., which advanced for 21 years, couldn’t escape the worst plunge in real estate since the Great Depression.”

Items from The Economatrix:

Investors Nudge Rally Forward with Small Gains

Mortgage Aid Program Helping Fraction of Borrowers

Florida-based Mortgage Company Suspended A prominent U.S. mortgage company is being investigated by the Housing and Urban Development Department after allegedly failing to submit a required financial report, raising concerns of fraud. The Federal Housing Administration on Tuesday suspended Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corp. from originating new FHA-insured mortgages, HUD said in a news release.

The Ultimate Suckers Rally: Record-breaking 50% Stock Market Rally in 5 Months; Extreme Market Volatility Occurs in Deep Economic Recessions and Depressions

Good-bye Dollar, Hello Gold

Fed to Strengthen Bank Examination with Expert Teams

American Incomes Head Down, Threatening Recovery in Spending

Banking Bonuses is Bubble Yet to Burst
“Even after receiving billions in government money to rescue the industry, whose bonus culture has been nailed as one of the causes of the crisis of 2008, the bankers have slipped right back into their old ways. And yet the one lesson we can draw from the last year is that all bubbles burst eventually. The bonus juggernaut is staying afloat on a wave of cheap money and taxpayer support. That will be withdrawn one day, and the fallout will be huge.”

Sotheby’s Sees Bottom for Art Market After Quarterly Profit Declines 87%



Odds ‘n Sods:

10 Things You Need to Know to Live on the Streets

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From Cheryl: Russian Subs Patrolling Off East Coast

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Outcry Causes Obama Administration To Change Language on Cash for Clunkers Website

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Hawaiian K. mentioned a piece by Jack Spirko, posted over at LRC: Modern Survivalism Tenet Number Five; Food stored is an exceptional investment. You simply can’t lose by storing additional food that you use on a regular basis



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Naturally the advance planning that we did on this thing belongs on the credit side of the ledger. So also does the venture into night flying, although in the final analysis the only real effect it had on this operation was to hold us in the area for one more night. Had we found the U-505 at night, there would have been no possibility of capture—that boarding idea was improbable enough in broad daylight, it was impossible at night.

This whole operation is an example of the fact that a military commander controls events only up to a certain point. He can anticipate certain things, perhaps even set the stage for them to happen, and can be ready to cash in on them if they do happen. But whether they will happen or not depends on many things over which he has no control. One is what goes on in the other commander’s mind and another is what goes on in his own. Both of these mental processes are subject to influence from above, or by Divine sufferance, from below. I am not trying to say that we have no control over our destiny on this earth. But I do say that in many things we control it only up to a certain point. Beyond that point nebulous things which occur inside men’s brains decide the issue. In this particular instance, I speak from firsthand experience when I say the stuff that ran through my mind for a week or so was all wrong, but the final result was very good….

The only moral I can see to all this is to plan your operations carefully, get the best advice you can from experts, fix it so that if certain things happen, you will not be caught flat-footed, and then, rely on the motto we have stamped on all our pennies—’In God We Trust.’” – From Twenty Million Tons Under the Sea, by Rear Admiral Daniel V Gallery . In June of 1944, Gallery’s Naval Task Group Task Group 22.3 boarded and captured the German submarine U-505, the first capture of an enemy man-of-war at sea since 1915, taken as a Prize of War and still on public display, at the Museum of Science and Industry in Chicago.



Notes from JWR:

I just heard that JRM, the author of the recent article “A Prepper Husband and a Stubborn Wife,” has been tapped for a special “Publisher’s Award” by Jake Stafford, the Publisher at Arbogast Publishing. JRM will receive a complimentary copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. Congrats!

Today we present another entry for Round 24 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) and C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $345 value)

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 24 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.