Letter Re: A Company Layoff Underscores the Need to Be Well Prepared

Jim,
What a surprise my wife and I received at work yesterday. My wife and I work for the same manufacturing company and after two banner years and a huge Christmas bonus the company is reducing everyone to 20 hours a week. The company we work for is a total “team oriented” place to work and if one person gets a bonus we all get a bonus and the same is true when it comes to layoffs. While our company sets and exceeds the world standard for what we do many of the companies we are dealing with are unable to now qualify for bank funding. What I find odd is the fact that the companies we deal with are the ones that bring food to tables around the world and are consistently profitable. I take pause when the profitable companies aren’t able to do business.

So my true purpose for contacting you is to thank you for blog and the focus it has toward preparation. My wife and I have been reading daily and are Ten Cent Challenge subscribers. Additionally, I have your SurvivalBlog banner on my MySpace page as well as all my outgoing (non-work) e-mail footers. I read your “Patriots” novel and then started reading your blog as well as the Mental Militia forums. Together, those have [motivated] us [to now be] sitting in a much better place than we wouldn’t be otherwise. We now have food supplies for ourselves and our children for six months as well as weapons and ammo cache.

I want to close by saying that my wife or I ever seen this coming and we are thankful to be as prepared as we are and hope that others step up while they can. Sincerely, – “Sharp Shepherd”

Letter Re: Speeding Coyote Hunters Arrested in Illinois

Jim,
I enjoy reading your blog and have improved my preps exponentially since I began following you. I don’t know how many dozens of [telephone] consultations you do annually, but you and I spoke for an hour earlier this year. I live on Long Island, if that rings a bell. I feel that it was money well-spent.

The post on vehicle stops was informative. You mentioned Boston T. Party’s “Boston’s Gun Bible” as a reference source. I have read all his books, fiction and non-fiction alike, and found him to be both entertaining and informative. If I may, I suggest letting your readers know that he has a book devoted solely to interactions with law enforcement. His book is entitled “You and the Police” and can be found on Amazon.com for as little as $10.88 at last glance. This book covers all phases of dealing with law enforcement including traffic stops, roadblocks, airports etc . It also tells you what the police are allowed to do and what your rights are during a “contact”, “detention” and “arrest”. I have purchased copies for myself, family and friends. As the cover of the book states :If you don’t know your rights, you have none!”

Thanks for the blog. It’s my first stop each morning. God Bless, – Ken B. in New York

Letter Re: Comparing the Big Three Battle Rifle Chamberings in the United States

Jim,
It looks like I kicked a hornet’s nest a little with my article, so here is a little clarification on my part.

To reply to Jim H. In Colorado:
“The recent article [by Kyrottimus] that stated that at 50 yards a typical 45 ACP and 9mm [Parabellum] will have the same energy is wrong.
.45 ACP 230 gr ~390 ft/lbs (528 joules) @ 875 fps (JHP)
9x19mm Luger/Parabellum 115 gr ~385 ft/lbs (521 joules) @ 1,225 fps (JHP)”

“Wrong” is a harsh term for so many variable loads for any type of ammo. I basically used the NATO loading data for the 9x19mm in a 5″ barrel pistol in a U.S. Military M9.

Muzzle Velocity 375 meters per second (1,230.3 feet per second)
Muzzle Energy 569.5 Newton meters (430 foot pounds)
See: www.Gun-Shots.net: “9mm bullet weights typically vary between 95 and 147 grains. These bullets leave the average pistol barrel from 930 up to 1,450fps.”

And from another source:
Ball 115 gr (7.45 g) 1,125 ± 90 fps (343 ± 27 mps)
(If using this, +or- 90 could mean 1,035 fps min or 1215 fps max)
M882 Ball 112 gr (7.26 g) 1,263 ± 5 fps (385 ± 1.5 mps)
(If used, drop ~35fps off for a hand-loaded typical 115gr projectile to get ~1,225fps)

Sources included above; you’ll also find references to U.S. military .45ACP loadings as well.
I “dumbed” my stats in the article down to accommodate for ~4.5″ pistols or some commercial defense loads. Please revise any old reloading manuals to which you may be still referring.
“His additional assumption, that bullets will slow equally in an air mass, is also wrong.”
I didn’t claim anywhere that bullets slow equally to each other, but what I did say was a SINGLE bullet will decelerate at a constant rate assuming the atmosphere is at a constant pressure. Allow me to quote myself:
“…so long as the air resistance remains constant, so too will the rate of deceleration of the projectile.” (not “projectiles”)
The statement is of a singular bullet, not comparing one to another.
” I noticed that he listed the fps for a 9mm cartridge at 1,225 fps. This is the energy for a 9mm +p+ range cartridge…”
See above reference to NATO 9x19mm cartridge loads.
…while comparing it to the 45 ACP ball cartridge, not a +p rated bullet.”

I was merely comparing NATO spec to NATO spec (apples to apples, so to speak), maybe I should have listed that from the get-go. NATO ammo in 9×19 may be applied to handloaders using like weighted projectiles with similar sectional density/ballistic coefficient to allow for better “energy dump.”
“How convenient for the crowd that believes 9mm and 45 to be “equivalent”.”

They aren’t. I never said they were. I’ll pick .45ACP nine times out of ten because beyond 50 yards it retains more of its power, further. It also doesn’t over-penetrate as much at closer range so it’s usually more efficient at energy deposition than the 9x19mm at both closer and longer ranges (in my opinion). Please don’t jump to conclusions, I said they were “equal in net force to 50 yards”, not in their energy deposition properties.

” The Winchester Ranger +p 230 gr ball is rated at 985 fps out of my barrel and it’s ballistic coefficient makes it retain more energy at 50 yards than the lightweight 9mm 115 gr cartridge.”

That is a completely true statement, but it’s not pertinent to the point I was trying to make in my article.

” So while not trying to get into the age-old 9mm versus 45 ACP fight, he’s perhaps unintentionally dishonest in his comparison. I would hazard a guess that the data itself was simple cut and pasted, and the writer is unused to vetting his writing.”

If I was somehow inaccurate or dishonest in my assessment of handgun data (used mostly to compare to rifles, not so much to each other), I apologize. It was not my intent.

I used many other sources but most of those were mostly to reassure my own assessments and did not feel pertinent to list every one (those included above with the NATO 9×19 data in the M9 as well as .45 ACP are just a few).

It was not “cut and pasted” and my vetting as a writer is irrelevant. I admit, I over-generalized in my article for the sake of length. Perhaps I should have began with preamble stating so to avoid further reactions. If someone feels the need to add, amend or correct my article, please do so. I don’t know everything about firearms, ballistics or physics. But let’s be honest, anyone can pit two different calibers and different types of loads and get plenty of different results. I am trying to compare “like loads” as close as possible (barrel length, ammunition purpose, cartridge source, etc.).

Again, my intent was not to imply that one may be better than the other, or to start contentious arguments. I was simply trying to, in generalized manner, display physical properties of energy in moving projectiles.

” I also found a big error, where the writer says: “Note that grains in bullet mass differ from from the “grains” of smokeless powder (nitro-cellulose) propellant, which is not used in this article.” He couldn’t be more wrong. I thought there was something up when he equated grain weight to carats and then to grams – I don’t think this is a reloader or someone more conversant with ammunition – no reloader I know could ever make this mistake.”
[JWR Adds: I think that what he meant write was that a physical grain of powder does not necessarily weigh one grain. But you are correct that powder is weighed in the same “grains” scale as bullets.]

JWR is correct. It is my fault, however, for not better wording the statement. It should have read something like this:
“A grain is a unit of lead mass measurement. Note that a “grain” of measurement is originally based upon lead weight and is in no “weigh” equal (pun intended) to a single grain of powder (as powder comes in either extruded/stick or ball/sphere). It is a unit of measuring mass, not individual powder grains. The unit if measurement “grain” is the same no matter what you are weighing; bullets, powder or the amount of pepper in your pepper shaker”

” When he talks of the destabilization of a typical rifle round, he also describes what actually happens erroneously, when referring to the centrifugal force of the cartridge “failing”, and “the laws of inertia, resistance, velocity and mass” being the deciding factors after the “spin fails”.”

I thought I was using basic words. “Spin Failing” is not a technical term; not by a long shot (no pun intended). Critical destabilization is often thrown around as a buzzword. When a bullet hits something harder than air, it’s going to slow down. Longitudinal friction (the direction of the bullet’s travel) is not the only friction a bullet encounters when slowing down. Roll/Spin Friction (via the bullet’s spin) also occurs. If that friction is enough to slow its spin down beyond the point of stabilization, it will usually begin to tumble (if it is back-heavy). Otherwise it can do a myriad of other unpredictable things.

I am positive I’m close enough to be more right than wrong in my basic sentiments.

“Using words like ‘critically destabilizes’ sounds like he was quoting something again….”

Maybe I should have used words like “Break apart” or “loses stabilization” or “slows down very fast” to appease those who may find my motives or style of writing questionable. I am sorry if I am not 100% to-the-point in detail and that I have often over-generalized to truncate an already lengthy article. I stand by the basic concept of energy dynamics in firearms ballistics, though.

And in response to the comments by Beach:
“Point blank” is not just vaguely “… a few yards from the muzzle” as Kyrottimus stated.”
Correct. Again, my mistake of over-generalization. When dealing with new readers, I should have made a terse, but appropriate differentiation between “point-blank” and the usual closest correct distance to set up a chronograph (which yields “muzzle” data). Beach closed with is:”We need to teach the correct usage of terms, not colloquialisms.” I agree completely, and concede this point to you good sir. – Kyrottimus

Odds ‘n Sods:

Thanks to KAF for spotting this: A Giant Breach in Earth’s Magnetic Field. This natural event–roughly analogous to the nuclear EMP effect in that it can fry microcircuits–is all the more reason to store your spare radios in ammo cans or other Faraday cage type enclosures.

   o o o

Reader Bob R. notes that there was a recent “Death Map” study done with data from 1970 to 2004 that categorizes US mortality rates from natural disasters. Bob’s comment: “One would think that hurricanes would top the list, but it turns out heat is a bigger killer. I think this data would be good for managing your disaster plans.” The full report is available in PDF.

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N.L. sent this: The NAIS premise registration prosecutions begin in Wisconsin. For those of you hat aren’t familiar with the NAIS, see this background piece. You will note that we generally avoid politics in SurvivalBlog, but we make exceptions for issues like gun control and NAIS, where government meddling restricts our ability to prepare and to be self-sufficient. Oh, and speaking of threats to Constitutional rights, many readers have mentioned this: U.S. now only two states away from rewriting Constitution

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Eric recommended a piece by Karen De Coster posted over at Lew Rockwell’s site: Tolerating Spiders, Using Your Credit Cards, and Other Depression Survival Tactics.

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Just as I predicted, the US Dollar has resumed it bear trend in foreign exchange, and this has brought silver and gold out of their doldrums. I expect the metals to have lackluster performance until the MOAB-induced inflation kicks in, in earnest. Once that happens, precious metals will surely skyrocket, as investors flock to metals as safe havens. And, courtesy of The Economatrix, here’s the latest news and commentary: Analysts: Fed Out of Bullets After Rate Cut — Fears Behind the Cheers for the Fed — UK Rates to Follow US to Zero — Kiss the Dollar Rally Good-Bye — UK Bank Rescue Plan is Just Not Enough — Martin Weiss: Deflation Strikes Hard…What to Do — US Treasury and Fed Determined to Destroy Dollar — CitiBank’s Computers Down, Blocking Account Info — GM to Temporarily Idle Three Mexico Assembly Plants — Markets Get an “F” In P/E (Mogambo Guru) — Raising the Bar for Hedge Funds — Gold is Money, Therefore a Hedge Against Inflation

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“The right of a citizen to bear arms, in lawful defense of himself or the State, is absolute. He does not derive it from the State government. It is one of the high powers” delegated directly to the citizen, and `is excepted out of the general powers of government.’ A law cannot be passed to infringe upon or impair it, because it is above the law, and independent of the lawmaking power.” – Cockrum v. State, 24 Tex. 394, at 401-402 (1859)

Notes from JWR:

The high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction that started yesterday is already at $800. The auction is for a large mixed lot that includes:

1.) A large “be ready to barter” box of full-capacity gun magazines, from the JASBORR. This box includes: 12 – Used original Bundeswehr contract HK91 (G3) steel 20 round magazines, 6 – Used original FN of Belgium-made FN-FAL alloy 20 round magazines, 6 – Used AR-15/M16 USGI (a mix of Simmonds & Colt made) alloy 20 round magazines, and 2 – New and very scarce original FN (Belgian-made) US M1/M2 Carbine blued steel 30 round magazines (marked “AYP”) . All of these magazines are of pre-1994 manufacture (and hence legal to possess in New York.) These magazines have a combined value of approximately $450. Note: If you live in a state where full capacity magazines are banned, then you must choose to: refrain from bidding, or designate a recipient in an unrestricted state, or re-donate the magazines for a subsequent auction.

2. ) A brand new in box Big Berky Water Filter, with your choice of either four white ceramic filter elements or four black filter elements. This is a $329 retail value, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.

3.) A huge lot of DVDs, CD-ROMs and hard copy nuclear survival/self-sufficiency references (a $300+ value) donated by Richard Fleetwood of www.SurvivalCD.com

4.) A NukAlert compact radiation detector donated by at KI4U.com (a $160 retail value). 

5.) A desert tan SOG Trident folding knife, courtesy of Safecastle. (a $92.99 retail value.)

6.) A case of 12 recent production full mil-spec MRE rations (identical to the current military contract MREs, but without the civilian sale restriction markings). This is a $90 retail value, courtesy of CampingSurvival.com.

Thus, the combined retail value of this combined lot is at least $1,275. This auction ends on January 15th. Please e-mail us your bid for the entire mixed lot.

Today’s first letter comes from my old friend “Jeff Trasel.” Those of you that have read my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse” will immediately recognize Jeff as the basis for one the thinly-fictionalized characters. In real life, Jeff is a former US Marine Corps Force Recon NCO that later went on to work in the defense electronics industry and the software industry. More recently, he has lived abroad, and he has pursued two graduate degrees.

Letter from Jeff Trasel Re: Competence Versus Caliber

James:
In continuing our discussion on the warrior-way as lifestyle, I have several observations relative to several recent posts on SurvivalBlog that need comment. First off, I am heartened by the level of awareness, camaraderie, and spirit of practical know-how, innovativeness, and just good common sense that pervades the posts of late. However, several have given me pause for thought, not so much for controversy, more so as how the subject matter should be approached by those new to our practice. For instance, there have been some marvelous discussions on battle rifle calibers and their respective effectiveness. In fact, the data was some of the most comprehensive I have seen since attending the Small Arms armorers’ course at Aberdeen Proving Ground and various SOF weapons schools. The authors are to be commended for their research. However, I would caution those in the early stages of the preparedness continuum to perhaps hip-pocket knowledge of this nature, as the reality of such data is more academic than practical. Competence is in many ways more lethal than caliber. I cannot stress this enough and it is this mindset that is the nexus of my writings here.

Projectile weights, powder charges, and the like are good to know if you intend to customize specific loads for your preparedness battery, but in times such as these, the risk-reward ratio of the effort is somewhat squandered, and [for the majority of shooters] the costs better spent on ready-made, good quality commercial or surplus military ball. In fact, you cannot get much better than mil-spec National Match-quality out of the box. I know, as I’ve tried it, and it took a lot of tests with different projectiles from a variety of manufacturers, and considerable experimentation with various powder [types and charges] to make any measurable difference in many years of experimentation. This is not to say it cannot be done, but there are more pressing matters, such as time on the range that should occupy one’s time.

A recent post listed sabotage skills as desirable in a preparedness situation. As someone trained in such matters, and having practiced said skills in the field, I find this a rather curious addition to the discussion. This is a matter of one’s personal survival philosophy, but given that long-term living in a preparedness state is akin to living the life of an insurgent, I can think of no quicker way to bring one’s existence to the eye of authority. Indeed, this runs counter to any idea of survival in hostile environments, and represents an escalation that could imperil the long-term viability of one’s retreat. Sabotage is an offensive, not defensive posture. The nature of survival is to exact retribution only as a last resort and in a fashion that does not telegraph a level of tactical sophistication that is counter-productive. To paraphrase Chairman Mao, “…one must swim as a fish within the sea of the masses and not antagonize the great angler.”

There are distinct tactical reasons where sabotage may be of use, primarily in urban and built-up areas as a means of area denial or in hindering those who may be in pursuit during your egress to your retreat. Caltrops or water in the gas, as mentioned, would certainly work in these and other scenarios. I bring this up only in urging caution in deploying such tactics. It takes practice to become efficient these types of low-intensity offensive operations, and while one should stand ready to incorporate their use in a prudent long-term retreat strategy, it is better to focus on avoidance rather than irritants. – “Jeff Trasel”

Three Letters Re: Speeding Coyote Hunters Arrested in Illinois

Jim
I went to college at Western Illinois University [WIU] and now live 30 miles from there. I don’t know much about the guys that got arrested but I can give you some info on Illinois gun laws.
No NFA [“Class 3”] items are allowed except for possibly AOWs. I have heard conflicting reports on AOWs, but know for sure that “silencers” (sound suppressor) are
illegal under the state law.

As for transporting guns, all guns must be unloaded and inside of a closed case. This goes for handguns and long guns. And no a glove box, center console, or
trunk don’t count as a case for the gun.

Also, the only CCW allowed in Illinois is by police, retired police with the proper paperwork, private investigators with proper paperwork, and of course just about any
Chicago politician. – Mark from the corrupt state of Illinois

 

JWR,
Regarding the recent post about the two young men arrested for weapons offenses in Illinois. In Illinois, it is illegal to have a firearm in a loaded or open carry manner in a vehicle. All guns, long arms and handguns, must be unloaded and in a case. Interesting to note, my wife and I drove to Idaho this summer from our home in New Jersey looking for areas for relocation.That was a 6,000 mile trip and the only two states that I could not have my handgun loaded and either on my person or in the glove box were Illinois and Iowa. Although Iowa does have a consideration for concealed carry for residents. Illinois and Wisconsin are the only two states in the Union that do not recognize an individuals right for self protection with a firearm (the only two “no issue” states in the union). Just an FYI you may want to pass along to your readers. – CG

Sir;
An interesting post there “Letter Re: Speeding Coyote Hunters Arrested in Illinois”. I was curious why they were arrested and what “aggravated unlawful use of a weapon might be” so I went to look up some Illinois law.

It seems like they were arrested for what I would call “carrying concealed without a permit”.
It looks like the problem was the immediately accessible loaded handgun (without a concealed carry permit)–they had loaded handguns under the seat.

So:
1) Don’t do that!
2) If you are doing that, then don’t speed
3) Never give law enforcement officers permission to search your person, your car, residence, etc.

Some YouTube videos on the subject:

One
Two
Three

Regards, – Karl W.

JWR Replies: There may have been the doctrine of “plain view” invoked, whereby the owner’s permission is not required for a search.
In sum, it sounds more likely it was just bad OPSEC rather to blame, than anything else. When traveling in gun-grabby states, guns and and accessories must be kept out of view.

We live in the era of the Nanny State. So it is important–particularly for those of you that live in the more populous and heavily-regulated states–to study these doctrines which can be used as the pretext for searches: Plain View, Reasonable Suspicion, and Probable Cause. These doctrines are drummed ito the heads of students at police academies. Your knowledge of these doctrines, and your ability to intelligently articulate them to law enforcement are quite important if you want to remain free to go about your business. Be polite, but stand up for your rights. If you are asked for permission to search you vehicle, then decline politely. If the officer persists, you should say something to the effect of” “I’m sorry officer, but I have been advised by my attorney to never voluntarily assent to a search. Is there anything substantive stemming from the doctrines of Plain View, Reasonable Suspicion, or Probable Cause that would lead you to believe that I am engaged in any illegal activity beyond the motor vehicle code infraction for which you pulled me over? Assuming there is not, am I now free to go?”

Further, my advice specifically to the good people of Illinois is: Don’t continue to live under such tyrannical laws. Exercising the Right to Keep and Bear Arms should a given rather than something that must be kept a secret. Vote with your feet, and move! FWIW, I briefly compare the gun laws of 19 western states as part of my analysis in my Recommended Retreat Areas page. But for a far more detail on the gun laws of all 50 states, see Boston’s Gun Bible. (BYW, I consider that book a “must” for the bookshelf of every prepared American family.)

Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader T.H. in New Mexico wrote to ask, “How long will this recession last, and how deep will it get? A year ago, I would have said that it might last as little as 18 months, and that it would surely be “sharp.” But no we see many trillions of dollars being thrown at Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB), thus perpetuating the malinvestment, and doubtless delaying economic recovery. So I’d say that we will see a severe recession if not a full blown depression with lots of disruption that will last between four years and 15 years. Be ready for a couple of years of deflation, probably followed by a period of stagflation, and possibly some quite severe inflation. If possible, relocate to a safe retreat area, soon.

   o o o

Justin M. suggested this article: Gun Toting mom divides community. As I’ve said before: A right that goes unexercised soon devolves into a privilege, and finally a crime. Good for her. If more Pennsylvanians regularly exercised their right to carry, then this would have never have been a controversy.(See the last chapter of my novel.)

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For anyone that has been dragging their feet on the $59.99 FoodSaver vacuum packer special (which will benefit SurvivalBlog, via sales commissions), be advised:

– Orders must be placed by 12pm EST 12/18/08 (tomorrow) to guarantee delivery via UPS Ground before 12/25/08.
– Last day for UPS 2nd Day Air is Noon EST 12/22.
– Last day for UPS Next Day Air 12 Noon 12/23.
– Not responsible for delays due to inclement weather.

You can buy a FoodSaver v2830 for $59.99 (originally $169.99) with free Standard Shipping for orders over $100, directly from FoodSaver.com.Use code L8FAV28 at checkout. OBTW, I also recommend getting the Mason Jar vacuum sealing adapter kit, to make your FoodSaver more versatile. This offer is valid only during the month of December, or while supplies last. More than 400 SurvivalBlog readers have already bought these at the special sale price. Don’t miss out!

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RKB sent us an article from rom CQ Homeland Security, an inside-the-Beltway publication primarily for lobbyists and media types: Americans Talking the Preparedness Talk, but Not Walking the Walk

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More economic news and commentary from Cheryl: Stocks Rise After Fed Rate Cut — IMF Chief Issues Stark Warning on Civil Unrest — Global Woes Fuel Unrest — Downturn Spurs “Survival Panic” in Some — Treasury Yields Drop to Records as Fed Foresees “Exceptionally Low” Rates — The Next Financial WMD? — Airline Employment Fell 5.7% in October. And to cap all those, Susan Z. sent us a Bloomberg piece that corroborates one of the assertions that I’ve repeated since SurvivalBlog was started in 2005, that the Fed will likely inflate its way out of any major problem: Fed Cuts Rate to As Low As Zero, Will Use All Tools. (It would have been better titled “Monetizing debt is next, Fed says”)

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“The bottom line is that we’ve become a nation of thieves, a value rejected by our founders. James Madison, the father of our Constitution, was horrified when Congress appropriated $15,000 to help French refugees. He said, ‘I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents.’ Tragically, today’s Americans would run Madison out of town on a rail.” – Dr. Walter Williams

Notes from JWR:

Congrats to Sheryl, the high bidder in our benefit auction that ended last night. Many thanks for your generous bid. Today we start a new auction, which includes:

1.) A large “be ready to barter” box of full-capacity gun magazines, from the JASBORR. This box includes: 12 – Used original Bundeswehr contract HK91 (G3) steel 20 round magazines, 6 – Used original FN of Belgium-made FN-FAL alloy 20 round magazines, 6 – Used AR-15/M16 USGI (a mix of Simmonds & Colt made) alloy 20 round magazines, and 2 – New and very scarce original FN (Belgian-made) US M1/M2 Carbine blued steel 30 round magazines (marked “AYP”) . All of these magazines are of pre-1994 manufacture (and hence legal to possess in New York.) These magazines have a combined value of approximately $450. Note: If you live in a state where full capacity magazines are banned, then you must choose to: refrain from bidding, or designate a recipient in an unrestricted state, or re-donate the magazines for a subsequent auction.

2. ) A brand new in box Big Berky Water Filter, with your choice of either four white ceramic filter elements or four black filter elements. This is a $329 retail value, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.

3.) A huge lot of DVDs, CD-ROMs and hard copy nuclear survival/self-sufficiency references (a $300+ value) donated by Richard Fleetwood of www.SurvivalCD.com

4.) A NukAlert compact radiation detector donated by at KI4U.com (a $160 retail value). 

5.) A desert tan SOG Trident folding knife, courtesy of Safecastle. (a $92.99 retail value.)

6.) A case of 12 recent production full mil-spec MRE rations (identical to the current military contract MREs, but without the civilian sale restriction markings). This is a $90 retail value, courtesy of CampingSurvival.com.

Thus, the combined retail value of this combined lot is at least $1,275. The opening bid is just $100. This auction ends on January 15th. Please e-mail us your bid for the entire mixed lot.

Today we present a guest editorial by attorney and economic commentator Edgar J. Steele:

Call Me Delusional, by Edgar J. Steele

The following is an e-mail I sent three weeks ago to a small group of exceptionally-forgiving friends of mine, in which I pre-announced my hunch that things have changed fundamentally in the precious metals (PM) markets:

There are lots of possible reasons: options expiry last week, new administration coming, new econ[omic] team (same as the Clinton econ team, which ran the [Plunge Protection Team] PPT into overdrive), China going into recession, Motor City going BK, a need to devalue the dollar in the face of global recession, shorter hem length, planetary alignment… Fact is, though, it is just a hunch. An educated guess.

Both gold and silver were up smartly last Friday and this morning. This may be a trend worth watching. If you have the ability and have not yet gotten aboard the train, this would be a good time. Silver is much more volatile than gold and moves both quickly and over a larger amount of real estate than does gold. Currently, silver is historically about as undervalued vis-a-vis gold as ever has been seen. A quick march right through $20 per ounce is coming – of that you can be certain – it’s the timing that is fuzzy, is all.

eBay hasn’t yet caught a whiff of the trend, if a trend it is, thus the premiums for silver and gold still reflect last Thursday’s prices. A good time to buy on eBay but not to sell. I hear that Tulving has silver for sale.

Throughout this whole debacle during which physical and paper PMs parted company, resulting in a true “Black Market,” real, physical silver never has gone below $15 per ounce. Recall that I said a while ago that you never again will see silver below $15. If we see a sudden upsurge in the spot price of paper silver, it will be interesting to see if the 40-60% physical premium carries along – it probably will for a while, then decline.

My feeling isn’t strong enough yet to go public to my list or web site with my hunch. This missive goes out just to a handful of those who I know will forgive me for being wrong, as I so often seem to be regarding short-term PM price movements (though my long-term trend forecasts have been right on the money).

I’m looking for serious and significant politico-social events during the next 90 days. All hell could break loose, in other words. This, perhaps, is the single most important component of my hunch.

– – –
[Some follow-up commentary, also by Edgar Steele, added on December 15th:]

Though I have personally suffered tremendous losses as a result of the government’s months-long manipulation of the dollar, silver and gold, it has pained me even more deeply to know that others have sustained such losses, at least partially in reliance upon my outlook.
Fortunately, most have followed my recommendations to the letter and bought only physical silver and taken personal delivery. They will be made whole and then some. A whole lot more than “some,” I firmly believe.

Some list members, like myself, have been foolish enough to ignore my fundamental advice to hold only physical PMs, which is all that I continue to support publicly. They and I took substantial positions in mining stocks on margin and we got destroyed during the past few months. It was a calculated risk. I never imagined that the government would drive down PM prices while the stock market crashed and simultaneously inflate the dollar beyond the bounds of all reasonable foresight. Our recent experience illustrates the folly of investing (gambling, actually) with borrowed money.

Now I have no choice but to continue to gamble on the leverage inherent to mining stocks, though I have been stopped out of all my margined positions. As noted below, I believe that the fundamentals have shifted once again, more in line with what existed a year ago.

I still like Pan American Silver (PAAS) and Gold Corp (GG), but am particularly impressed with Coeur d’Alene Mines (CDE), which has declined well beyond the average during the past few months (to less than 10% of its value a year ago, becoming a true “penny stock” today) and which appears to have more headroom than most, as a result. I have bought as much of CDE as I could with what remains of my brokerage account balances (not much), though I continue to hold modest positions in PAAS and GG, as well as a couple of small firms that I cannot in good conscience suggest to others.

Do as you will. You know what I am doing. I can in good conscience recommend only that you buy gold and silver and take physical possession. They are at bargain levels today and are readily available if you are willing to pay the premiums being commanded. Do not mistake spot price for market price.

Check eBay, which is the closest thing we have to a published market these days. Here are links so that you easily can check on prevailing eBay silver and gold prices.

Here are a few good sources for gold and silver bullion: Tulving, Bullion Direct, Gold and Silver Now, and Seek Bullion. (Yeah, well, I wish I got something for recommending these sites – something beyond the knowledge that you almost certainly will be treated fairly and given good prices, that is.)

I believe that the next sixty days or so are among the most dangerous ever faced by America. We are in transition, with a do-nothing, lame-duck president standing in the way of a nation still transfixed by the vision of another man falsely promising change while that man (Obama) surrounds himself with the very people who created the staggering problems, both economic and political, now facing us.

Israel is whipping itself into a fever and virtually certain to strike out at Iran. Pakistan and India are on the verge of nuclear war. Economic riots have spread from Greece to other parts of Europe. Incredibly enough, pirates actually roam the seas again. All hell could break loose at any time, folks.

Take care of the fundamentals first: location, protection, survival. Then, and only then, should any of this financial stuff matter to you.

As bleak as this Christmas might seem to be shaping up, it well could be “the good old days” when viewed from just a couple of years hence. Enjoy it well and be particularly attentive to your family. In the long run, family is all that you have. And friends, don’t forget. I count you, particularly, among my treasured friends.

Merry Christmas. – Edgar J. Steele

JWR Adds: Unless someone is very wealthy, I concur with Mr. Steele thatthey buy only physical (read: tangible, in your personal possession) precious metals. Those might prove useful for barter in the recovery phase of an economic collapse, but not in the very depth of it. Here in the States, the easily-recognizable pre-1965 circulated silver US dimes, quarters, and/or half dollars will be ideal for barter.

Steele and I are are also in complete accord on this statement: “Take care of the fundamentals first: location, protection, survival. Then, and only then, should any of this financial stuff matter to you.” Or, as I put it, “Get your beans, bullets, and Band-Aids squared away before ‘investing’ anything extra.”

Letter Re: A Prescribed Burn in North Carolina to Find a Fugitive’s Weapons and Ammo

Howdy James,
I thought that this article was interesting in the fact that the US Forest Service is calling for a prescribed burn [in order] to locate weapons, ammo, and explosives (sounds like reloading powder) that a fugitive may have stashed around his camp site.

This got me to thinking, how safe are your caches? You will want to make sure any caches you have are buried well if they come looking for your cache and burn the area. Also consider that those landmarks/trees that were there may be gone after a burn, so locating it again may be difficult if you are basing it on ‘sight’ only! Be sure to have other methods to recover your cache. Later, – Mark in North Carolina

Two Letters Re: Comparing the Big Three Battle Rifle Chamberings in the United States

Jim:

The recent article [by Kyrottimus] that stated that at 50 yards a typical 45 ACP and 9mm [Parabellum] will have the same energy is wrong.

.45 ACP 230 gr ~390 ft/lbs (528 joules) @ 875 fps (JHP)
9x19mm Luger/Parabellum 115 gr ~385 ft/lbs (521 joules) @ 1,225 fps (JHP)

His additional assumption, that bullets will slow equally in an air mass, is also wrong.

I noticed that he listed the fps for a 9mm cartridge at 1,225 fps. This is the energy for a 9mm +p+ range cartridge, while comparing it to the 45 ACP ball cartridge, not a +p rated bullet. How convenient for the crowd that believes 9mm and 45 to be “equivalent”. The Winchester Ranger +p 230 gr ball is rated at 985 fps out of my barrel and it’s ballistic coefficient makes it retain more energy at 50 yards than the lightweight 9mm 115 gr cartridge. So while not trying to get into the age-old 9mm versus 45 ACP fight, he’s perhaps unintentionally dishonest in his comparison. I would hazard a guess that the data itself was simple cut and pasted, and the writer is unused to vetting his writing.

I also found a big error, where the writer says: “Note that grains in bullet mass differ from from the “grains” of smokeless powder (nitro-cellulose) propellant, which is not used in this article.” He couldn’t be more wrong. I thought there was something up when he equated grain weight to carats and then to grams – I don’t think this is a reloader or someone more conversant with ammunition – no reloader I know could ever make this mistake. [JWR Adds: I think that what he meant write was that a physical grain of powder does not necessarily weigh one grain. But you are correct that powder is weighed in the same “grains” scale as bullets.]

When he talks of the destabilization of a typical rifle round, he also describes what actually happens erroneously, when referring to the centrifugal force of the cartridge “failing”, and “the laws of inertia, resistance, velocity and mass” being the deciding factors after the “spin fails”. He uses big words, but I’m positive he doesn’t know what the interactions of those forces are. Using words like ‘critically destabilizes’ sounds like he was quoting something again, and not instructing the reader. You know, as do I, that [Col. Martin] Fackler [the lead author of the NATO Emergency War Surgery manual and numerous ballistics studies] explained all of this stuff very simply and very succinctly – and rotational forces are a primary reason for jacket and bullet fragmentation, they do not “usually fail” as he writes. – Jim H. in Colorado

 

Jim:
“Point blank” is not just vaguely “… a few yards from the muzzle” as Kyrottimus stated.

Here is the official definition:
In external ballistics, point-blank range is the distance between a firearm and a target of a given size such that the bullet in flight is expected to strike the target without adjusting the elevation of the firearm (see also gun). The point-blank range will vary with the firearm and its particular ballistic characteristics, as well as the target chosen. A firearm with a flatter trajectory will permit a nearer minimum and further maximum point blank range for a given target size, while a larger target will allow for a longer point blank range for a given firearm.

We need to teach the correct usage of terms, not colloquialisms. – Beach

Odds ‘n Sods:

Eric sent us this: Amish homeowners: Religion trumps building codes

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Michael H. flagged this: Fed Refuses to Disclose Recipients of $2 Trillion

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I’m overwhelmed! More than 300 SurvivalBlog readers have bought Foodsaver vacuum packers at the special December sale price.This a is a great way to save money and to support SurvivalBlog! (We get a small commission on each sale, if you follow our link.) You can buy a FoodSaver v2830 for $59.99 (originally $169.99) with free Standard Shipping for orders over $100, directly from FoodSaver.com.Use code L8FAV28 at checkout. This offer is valid during the month of December, or while supplies last. By buying foods in bulk and re-packaging them in more handy (single meal size) vacuum bags, you can save a lot of money on your grocery bill. And of course vacuum-packed foods have greatly extended shelf lives. Buy a FoodSavers, and you’ll be glad that you did!

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Not surprisingly, the bad economic news keeps coming: I spotted this article linked at Drudge: Third of Hedge Funds Face ‘Wipe Out’ After Slump, Godden Says. Terry in Cornwall, England sent this: Supermarkets’ emergency plans to keep shelves full. Bill N. endorsed a tongue in cheek look by Fred Thompson concerning the MOAB. Michael M. heard an NPR Marketplace news story and sent us the link: Quantitative Easing = “Let’s just print the money”. Reader “Bigbird” flagged this: Gross Domestic Product: 40 Percent of the United States GDP comes from 5 States; California, Texas, New York, Florida, and Illinois. And Eric sent all these: Ponzi Nation — Just a sign of troubled times, or has the Fed lost it? — Treasury bonds have reached bubble stage — Deflation has become inevitable — Household Net Worth in U.S. Declines Most on Record — SF feels pain of real estate meltdown. And to round out the day’s links, here is the latest batch from The Economatrix: Radical Fed Reserve Rate Cut to .05% — Dollar Staggers as US Unleashes Cash Flood — UK Royal Mail Pension in $14 Billion Hole — Ireland Joins Wave of Bailouts — Ecuador Default: Fears Others Will Follow — Alternative Currencies Grow in US — Bankers Privately Talk of the End of Days (A key quote: “I have spoken to a couple of pretty senior bankers in the past couple of weeks and their story is rather different. They don’t refer to the looming problems as being like 1992 or even 1929. They talk about a total financial meltdown. They talk about the End of Days.”) — Goldman Sachs Faces $2 Billion Loss, its First Since 1929 — “Already Bankrupt” GM Won’t be Rescued By Loan — Collapse of Pension Funds: End of Retirement? — Homes Lose $2 Trillion in Value in 2008 — Grave Worries About Automaker Failure — Gold Rises to $823, Dollar Sinks