Economics and Investing:

Courtesy of The Other Jim R.: Dollar Will Weaken, Currency Crash Possible, Roubini Says

From FG: More US wealthy opt to surrender their citizenship

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard asks: Does the world have the courage to deal with its debts? “There are three ways out of our mess. We can pursue 1930s liquidation that purges debt through mass default. Such Calvinist destruction cannot be imposed on a modern democracy. We can devalue debt by deliberate inflation. This will backfire as bond vigilantes boycott government debt – unless rigged by capital controls or “administrative measures”. You see where this leads. Or we can try to right the ship by paying down our debts, very slowly, by sweat and toil, navigating a treacherous course between the Scylla and Charybdis of the twin-flations, for as long as it takes. This is the only responsible course left we as we face the devastating consequences of our own credit delusions. Are we up it?”

Reader Randy F. flagged this: China alarmed by US money printing; The US Federal Reserve’s policy of printing money to buy Treasury debt threatens to set off a serious decline of the dollar and compel China to redesign its foreign reserve policy, according to a top member of the Communist hierarchy.

Items from The Economatrix:

Food Stamp List Soars to New Record Past 35 Million

Biden: Stimulus Working Better than Expected

[Memory] Chips and Beer May Herald Return of Pricing Power

Florida Exodus: Rising Taxes Drive Residents Out


Old Chrysler Defaults on $3 Billion Bankruptcy Loan from Government


US Doles Out Grants for Energy Projects
Projects are in US, but profits flowing to European companies and developers

1.3 Million Americans to Lose Jobless Benefits by Year’s End

Mortgage Defaults Shifting to Prime Borrowers


The Government’s Cooked Books



Odds ‘n Sods:

FG spotted this: Ammo demand remains Sky High. Here is a quote: “On delivery days at the Bass Pro Shop in the Silverton, 20 to 30 customers will line up for the store to open, said Keith Rainey, an assistant manager in the hunting department. ‘They call us up every day to find out when the next load is coming in,’ Rainey said. ‘If you don’t get there early, you don’t get any bullets.’
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Mark D . sent this: Veggie Vandals: community gardens deal with theft

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As they say in Southern China: “Ni hao, Y’ all”: Reader Tim T, just discovered that there is a Chinese translation of SurvivalBlog available. We don’t have many hits there, but at least we don’t seem to be blocked by The Great Firewall of China. (Which is surprising, since I am such an unrepentantly disharmonious reactionary Capitalist Rotor.)

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From Nanny State Britannia: U.K. Boy Scouts banned from using penknives on camping trips. (Thanks to FG for the link.)



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people, it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government — lest it come to dominate our lives and interests." – Patrick Henry



Letter Re: Lessons from a Brief, Opportunistic Burglary

Dear Jim,
I want to forward a story from my local electronics surplus dealer concerning his son and wife who live in a new upper-middle class subdivision just outside of Portland, Oregon.

Last Friday, William (not his real name) went off to work as normal. Kids went off to school. Wife was home. She left the house at 11:15 for a quick errand. She got back about noon. Only 45 minutes.

On her return, she noticed the front door unlocked. She did the correct thing and did not enter the house. She called the local police from inside her car parked across the street. They cleared the house and noted that it looked like a quick search had occurred. Drawers were piled by desk, freezer contents were thawing on the floor. As soon as the safe was found by the bad guys, the hasty search stopped to concentrate on it. [JWR Adds: Perhaps it is worthwhile to leave a small “bait” vault that is bolted down in the master bedroom closet, while your main gun vault is hidden behind a false wall.]

Unfortunately, it was only a “fire safe”–mostly plastic, bolted to the floor) which can be popped open with a pry bar. Bad guys opened it quickly, took $16,000 in paper money, jewelry, etc. and were gone in a few minutes. In contrast, a $1,000 gun safe or a small floor safe set in concrete would have frustrated average thieves for at least an hour, if not completely.

The cash will not be covered by insurance (excluded in the policy), and the house policy will only cover about $4,000 of the documented jewelry. No one expects recovery or conviction, nor any significant investigation since “only property” was lost.

Details that I didn’t have were about household help (carpet cleaner, maid, yard service, plumber, etc.) who might have tipped off an unsavory buddy about the number of people in the house, entries/gates/dogs/alarm systems, vehicle details, coming and going timing and regularity, observed portable wealth, etc.

Lesson: A small “fire safe” for papers should be secured in a “real” safe or vault that household help do not have access to or knowledge of. Expect casing of better neighborhoods that are nearly empty during the work-week. Short shopping trips are plenty of time for Breaking & Entering, but the bad guys know that the clock is ticking from their first knock on the front door. Delay (a well-concealed stout safe) is a homeowner’s best asset, followed by professional armed response. A well-concealed video camera feeding to a hidden recorder would greatly encourage the local police to pursue prosecution, or help your investigator. [JWR Adds: Concealed web cams feeding motion-capture images to an off-site server are now quite affordable.] Concealed carry for the lady of the house may have made her feel more self-assured during her retreat back to the car.

Best wishes for your family. Sincerely, – Karl K. in Oregon



Letter Re: Some Travel and Bug Out Gear Recommendations

Sir,
First, as promised earlier I wanted to follow up and describe the kit I take with me on my trips. As I have mentioned in the past my job takes me overseas all the time, so for the past decade I have spent 80-90% of my time in third and second world countries. As a result the type of kit I take with me becomes important – it has to be packable and lightweight (especially now that the airlines are limiting you to 50 lbs. per bag versus the old 75 lbs. per bag). I have built up a kit that fits inside a one quart water bottle that goes in my suitcase whenever I travel. In the kit I have:

1. A folding knife (not a one hand opening one … just a plain old Buck style knife). When asked (four or five times in a decade now) I explain that this is for cutting my food.

2. A pocket knife (Swiss Army knife) [JWR Adds: Per FAA regulations, edged weapons may only be carried in checked baggage–not in carry-on bags,.]

3. A fork and spoon (titanium)

4. A small (AAA battery size) LED flashlight

5. Several packets of sugar free hydration mix

6. Water purification tablets and a water purification straw

7. A compass (Marble’s Brand Pin On)

8. A waterproof container with matches in them (while technically not allowed I have packed them for years with no problems)

9. A length of 550 cord

10. A map of the region that has been waterproofed after various routes out of the area have been marked on it.

11. A waterproofed copy of my passport front page, driver’s license, and birth certificate, and contact number.

12. A couple of Krugerrands

I also have in the suitcase:

1. A small SW receiver (Grundig)

2. A first aid kit

3. A medical kit with various antibiotics, cold medicines, etc. in it.

4. A sewing kit (scissors come in handy and the thread and safety pins can be used for fishing)

I also use a backpack to carry my laptop and business stuff in. I have in the past pulled the hard-drive from the laptop and left it sitting there when I have had to evacuate. The survival kit goes into the backpack in this case. Just because the backpack is a 5.11 RUSH24, it has not raised any eyebrows by customs officials. In addition to this I have always carried a packable raincoat or poncho and a cold weather jacket in my suitcase along with a good pair of hiking boots and a couple of pairs of wool hiking socks.

Notice that other than the items in the water bottle, they are all items that one would use on a long business trip anyway.

I make it a habit to never pack and carry anything with me that I would not be willing to dump if the need arose.

I am sure this list will cause all sorts of heartache and discussion but I have used this kit or something very similar since I was a teenager (my father was posted all over the world) and unless we are talking about a complete breakdown of order it has enough in it that I can make it out of an area if need be.

Second, we are using this weekend as a chance to go enjoy the great outdoors and practice our load out at the same time. As mentioned in the past we plan on using a camping trailer to get out of our area if we are forced to. So this weekend (as we have in the past) we are practicing our load out and go skills. The kids look at it as a game, and now while the world is not as bad as it could be, we can survive if we forget something basic – and have time to add it to the trailer.

Third, when it comes to a bug-out many of us are tied to our computers and would want to take them with us. While I plan on taking one laptop with me if we ever have to leave our house (plus the K-12 educational CDs that we have for it) along with vital records, there is another way to keep your records with you. I have started to use products from a couple of different sites for many reasons – portability and security are chief among them. Portableapps.com allows you to load a basic set of applications onto a USB [memory] stick and use it in “stealth” mode on any computer with a USB port. This allows you to keep your records and a basic set of applications with you at all times (things like money management software and email are critical). I also frequent pendrivelinux.com and have a USB stick set up with a virtual linux image that allows me to do the same basic things as with the windows portable applications. I would urge you to set up several USB sticks like this so that you can get by with a single laptop/PC per family versus multiple ones. I also have the same sort of setup (using the windows briefcase function) for my critical business documents – while pulling the hard-drive does work this is a much cleaner solution.

In this way if I need to walk out of an area, a small USB memory stick is a whole lot easier to carry than a laptop. Plus with the large number of companies that are placing tracking software on your laptops these days, being able to keep certain things private has a great deal of appeal. – Hugh D.





Economics and Investing:

Sluggish growth in france leading to big trouble. (Thanks to DD for the link.)

Larry T. sent this: Why Default on U.S. Treasuries is Likely, by Jeffrey Rogers Hummel. “Buried within the October 3, 2008 bailout bill was a provision permitting the Fed to pay interest on bank reserves. Within days, the Fed implemented this new power, essentially converting bank reserves into more government debt. Now, any seigniorage that government gains from creating bank reserves will completely vanish or be greatly reduced.”

Items from The Economatrix:

Five Weeks on the Brink: Reliving the ’08 Meltdown

Brown to G-20: Economy at Critical Juncture

Recession Hits Nest Eggs; US Promotes Ways to Save

List of US Banks Closed by Feds Jumps to 89 (MO, IL, IA, & AZ)

Moody’s Ruling is “Landmark Decision” Einhorn Says

US Recovery Leaving Workers Jobless May Spur Company Profits Recovery indicators not boosting paychecks; 9.1 million stuck in part-time jobs

New Jobless Claims Dip Less than Expected Data indicates job market’s recovery long, bumpy

Jobless “Traumatized” by Tough Economy



Odds ‘n Sods:

Cheryl mentioned: 13 Tips On Cutting The Family Budget

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I made the mistake of spending more than a half hour on the phone with this journalist who promised me that he was sympathetic to the preparedness movement, and would write a favorable article. Either he was disingenuous, or his editor thoroughly re-wrote the piece: The new survivalists: Oregon ‘preppers’ stockpile guns and food in fear of calamity. Oh well, at least they spelled my name correctly. Oh, and don’t miss the lengthy comments section. It shows how ultra-liberal Portland has become.

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Reader DD suggested these pesky critter tips

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North Korea “Weaponizing” Plutonium, Offers Talks





An Instructive Survival Story from the 1930s

Do you thrill to read pulse-quickening stories of survival where individuals triumph over extreme odds? How about a survival situation that didn’t occur over a period of minutes, such as a tornado….or a survival situation that didn’t occur over a period of hours, such as a hurricane ….or a survival situation that didn’t occur over a period of days, such as a flood. What about a horrifying survival story that dragged on year after year with no help, no rescue, no hope, no end in sight?

Fearful survival stories of the last Great Depression abound, but we are losing those that lived during that experience through old age. Their stories of triumph and hope need to be heard and remembered.
Do you know personal stories of privations and suffering that are told and retold, first-hand from family members?

In recent days we’ve read on SurvivalBlog about the poorly coping, unemployed Indiana family living on the edge — yet still buying Pepsi, cigarettes, beer, Subway sandwiches, and car washes — and then about other individuals faring better by taking jobs that they never could have imagined working at, such as the poultry farm worker.

All my life I was taught lessons of the Great Depression that had affected my parents’ lives. Yes, my mother had stories to tell, but my father was the real survivor in spite of his sad growing up years. As Ann Landers once said, “The fire that melts butter also forges steel.”

Two experiences defined my parents’ lives: The Great Depression and World War II.
The Great Depression was such a dreadful event to survive that they could never let it go. I would give anything for my parents to still be alive so I could probe their memories and learn more from them. On the other hand, I’m very happy they are not here to see that history is repeating and the uphill struggle they overcame during their lifetimes may be coming around again. My observation of that Greatest Generation is that surviving the Great Depression left people with one of two approaches to money. Either they became tight-fisted to the point of miserliness or money had no meaning, that is, money was for the good it could accomplish and human relationships were tantamount.

My sweet, precious father was the latter type. He should have grown into a bitter, greedy, driven man, but he was the kindest, sweetest person I ever knew. His life was defined by generosity and a gentle, loving, giving spirit.

I feel like people today have no idea where we have come from and where we could be headed again. The depths of a Great Depression are not in the realm of reality or feasibility today to many people.

Here is my Daddy’s story:

Daddy was born in 1920 into a working class family in a small, dusty Texas town that sits near the Red River and Oklahoma border. His parents were loving parents although a bit bigoted. His father served as a city councilmen, volunteer fireman, church deacon, and proudly was active in his Masonic Lodge. The family owned their own little wooden house on a dirt street and had many friends through church and civic activities. My father was the eldest child. Grandmother had gone to junior college for one year and had grown up on a farm and had the usual farm skill set. She knew all about food preservation, small livestock, and all the handiwork imaginable such as sewing, tatting, quilting, crochet, and knitting. The family was well-respected in the community.

My father’s world turned upside in 1931. Daddy’s father worked as a railroad engineer, work that seems to have been some type of job transferring trains onto different tracks at the train depot. His work did not involve any travel and he was home in the evenings for supper. Until he died, my daddy hated the lush plant called “cannas” that he knew as “depot plants” because of the sad association in his mind with trains. My popular grandfather was so liked in the town that he had made an enemy, a mean, hateful, spiteful one. His immediate boss was jealous of my grandfather’s standing and fired him without cause or reason according to family oral tradition. In 1931, the Great Depression had been going on for two years with years still left until recovery. There was no work to be found anywhere and no social safety net. My grandfather was not afraid of hard work or any type of job, there just weren’t any jobs available. By this time, the family had now grown to 2 children in the family and my grandmother was pregnant with the third.

Out of desperation to feed his family, my grandfather visited a man in town who had some connections and business around Texas to ask for, even beg, for a job, any job. This man said that the only work he had available that he could give my grandfather was a job in another town many hours away working on unloading trains. While it meant leaving the family, it would provide some income for the family. Unfortunately, my grandfather was a tall, big-boned man and somewhat overweight. He moved out of town to work in the 100+ degree humid east Texas summer. The work was so strenuous that one day in the high temperatures, he collapsed from a heat stroke…not heat exhaustion…heat stroke. They took my grandfather to lie down in a bed out of the sun, to try to cool down. Of course, air conditioning and Emergency Department Trauma Centers were only pleasant future dreams. Then they called my grandmother and a friend of hers had a car and money for gasoline, so together they drove many hours to east Texas t o retrieve my grandfather. They loaded him up and drove back to their hometown. Grandfather rested at home for a few days then went back to work in east Texas out of desperation because without him working, there was no money. He was dead within a few days from a relapse heat stroke. I can’t begin to imagine the depths of despair my young widowed grandmother felt when facing the future with three small children. She was on her own to survive.

At the age of 11, my father, just a child, became “the man of the family,” as his mother told him. Until his own personal health collapse at age 13, Daddy brought home the only cash the family lived on. Grandmother took the three children back to the family farm (her parent’s farm) each summer for a couple of weeks to can and bring home some food to live on for the next few months. The family kept a few chickens in the backyard in town and my Daddy wrung chickens’ necks when they decided to splurge and eat one. Breakfast was often apple pie. An ugly, old biddy hired my Daddy to deliver the local newspaper twice a day in town. While Daddy had a bike, out of spitefulness, this woman insisted “her” paperboys deliver on foot. My father grew six inches in two years, while attending school and delivering newspapers. And then his health crashed. Daddy was dying of starvation here in the USA, the son of a family with standing and respect in the community during the early desperate days of the Great Depression.

While there was a family doctor in their small town, my grandmother took my father across the river to Oklahoma to visit a different doctor who had been recommended by a friend. Years later, our surmise is that the starvation was so embarrassing that grandmother wanted to see a doctor who didn’t know the family. The Oklahoma doctor declared that my father had tuberculosis (TB), a diagnosis that saved Daddy’s life. Perhaps this was act of kindness by the doctor. Who knows?

At any rate, when 13 years old, Daddy was sent to a sanitarium in west Texas, situated in a dry, sunny locale. Daddy was fed three nourishing meals a day with forced, silent bed rest for hours each afternoon. His mother never came for a visit. In fact, there were no visitors. Travel was out of the question, just too expensive. A family friend gave him the beautiful gift of a newspaper subscription. A radio on the ward provided entertainment and during afternoon rest, the children communicated by spelling words via sign language. While friends at the sanitarium died, after six months Daddy recovered enough to finally go home.

Even though Daddy was pronounced non-contagious, in fact cured, his mother wouldn’t allow him in the house. He slept in a shed in the backyard all by himself, while still just a child. To understand how primitive the shed was, the main house didn’t have running water and toilet facilities until many years later. Grandmother sold angel food cakes made with the chicken eggs and got hired to work in the Works Progress Administration (WPA) Sewing Room teaching women how to sew. Daddy never again was the main breadwinner for the little family. The rest of his life, all x-rays showed no scarring from TB, his skin tests always turned up negative results, and he was able to play the trumpet. Daddy never had TB, he had survived starvation.

My father possessed a quick, brilliant, complicated mind. He excelled in high school academics and eventually graduated. Until his death, he had many life-long friends from his little hometown. Grandmother was determined that all her children would get an education and have inside jobs. Daddy’s uncle was an old maid who worked in the oil fields. He generously sent my father $25 a month to go to college, which was all the cash Daddy had to live on. Daddy graduated from the college that eventually became the University of North Texas in Denton. Through all four years of college Daddy lived in a boarding house and ate only one meal a day. That’s all he could afford. He died in 2008, a few days shy of 88 years old. Throughout my entire life, I never saw Daddy leave any food on his plate or anyone else’s at the table for that matter. Some habits are hard to break.

My daddy’s life story is one of love and triumph. But, his story also full sadness and of people who did not rise to be the best they could in a terrible time. They let their baser motives guide their actions. Daddy’s family survived because of church and faith, family, community, the little backyard garden and chickens, and everyone in the family working together for each other to stay alive, including an 11 year old child . That Indiana family has no interest in survival, no instinct for survival. Where is their garden? Where is their sense of urgency to pull together and everyone contribute to the family’s survival? They are whining and waiting to be saved, and it’s not going to happen. They must depend on themselves.

It’s so hard to believe that conditions could ever get this bad again, but as my parents always said, “Life turns on a dime.” I fervently hope we never see a return to the dark days of a Great Depression.

Thanks, Jim, for all you do and best wishes to the family. – Elizabeth B.



Letter Re: Surviving an Expedient Ambush Roadblock While Traveling by Vehicle, by M.W.

Mr. Editor,
In his article “Surviving an Expedient Ambush Roadblock While Traveling by Vehicle“, M.W. was incorrect when he wrote, “The lead vehicle should place their vehicle at a 45-degree angle to the direction of travel and the weapon system should then be employed across the hood so that the engine block provides a [limited] ballistic shield for those person(s) providing cover[ing fire].”

Do not stand leaning over a vehicle[, thinking that it will provide ballistic protection.]. At 200 yards .30-06 FMJ will penetrate 20 inches solid white pine. It will just as easily penetrate the sheet metal of a vehicle and you. See Hatcher’s Notebook.

Have one or more shooters take cover in defilade in a ditch. If terrain permits, then have one or two take cover on a hillside so as to shoot down on the bad guys.

Remember:

A.) You cannot see through [most] concealment.
B.) You cannot shoot through cover.

BTW I saw a episode of [the television series] Jericho that showed the defenders leaning across cars. I wonder which idiot they chose for technical advisor. – Vlad

JWR Replies: I concur! To amplify on your advice: If you are ever in the unenviable position of being caught in the open, with only a car or truck to provide marginal cover, then make the best of it. Getting down prone will reduce your target signature by 80%. And if you have no available intervening terrain that will provide cover (i.e. you are an open, forward slope), then get as low as possible, positioning yourself so that both a vehicle wheel and the engine block between yourself and los hombres malos. Tires and tire rims are actually fairly difficult for bullets to penetrate intact with any regularity, so they too afford marginal protection. If you are returning fire from a prone position behind a car, keep in mind that it might suddenly take a 7 inch drop, when a tire is punctured, so do not put any part of your body under a vehicle while in the midst of a firefight.



Odds ‘n Sods:

Michigan State Fair Ending After this Year

Items from The Economatrix:

Cerberus to Ban Withdrawal From New Hedge Funds for Three Years. Note: JWR warned us about hedge fund redemption suspensions, two years ago!

So You Just Squandered Billions…Take Another Whack at it


Soft Number Folly
(The Mogambo Guru)

Scam H*ll Ahead (The Mogambo Guru)

Americans’ Income Slump Biggest on Record

The Renminbi as the World Reserve Currency (Pt. 1)

Hit Me Again (The Mogambo Guru)

Video: Peter Schiff on CNBC Fast Money

Small Retailers Feel Sharper Pinch


Loan Sharks Circle Credit-Starved Consumers

Mike Whitney: Band-aids for the Recession

John Galt Fla: The Bananas are Back



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Trust in the LORD, and do good;
Dwell in the land, and feed on His faithfulness.
Delight yourself also in the LORD,
And He shall give you the desires of your heart.
Commit your way to the LORD,
Trust also in Him,
And He shall bring it to pass.
He shall bring forth your righteousness as the light,
And your justice as the noonday." – Psalm 37:3-6



Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 24 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) and C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $345 value.)

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 24 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.