Economics and Investing:

GG suggested this commentary by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: China has now become the biggest risk to the world economy

Reader “Gravy” sent a link to an interesting animated map on changes in unemployment rates.

Mr. D. sent a link to a National Pravda Radio news story: Joshua Kosman, Predicting The Next Credit Crisis. And on a similar note, GG sent this from The New York Post: Book: Spike in PE-owned firm defaults ahead

Items from The Economatrix:

Irish Government to Pay Immigrants to Go Home

Have Prices Already Risen Too Much, Too Soon?

Karl Denninger: Better Late Than Never

Economists Fear Impact of “Dollar Carry Trade”

Odds ‘n Sods:

Ryan (not one of the one of the Ryans of TSLRF fame) sent this news item from a southern Idaho newspaper: Driggs boy shoots bear on family’s porch. Ryan’s comment: “This is great. Hope my daughter turns out like this”. Speaking of bears in Idaho, my old college roommate e-mailed me the link to this archived picture from the Colt Firearms collection.That was lucky shot. (Needless to say, .32 ACP is not a reliable stopper for predators of either the two-legged or four-legged varieties! Here at the ranch, we regularly carry .45 ACPs in the woods, and feel just barely sufficiently armed.)

   o o o

I heard from a reader that as of January 1st, in California and Washington it will be illegal to balance car and truck wheels with lead weights.This might present an opportunity for anyone in California or Washington to acquire some scrap lead for various post-TEOTWAWKI projects. Just ask your local tire shop what they plan to do with their bins of old weights, and offer them a nominal sum for what they have left. You might get a real bargain.

   o o o

K.L. in Alaska suggested this article from England: Organic GM alternative considered. K.L’s comment: “Apparently there’s a move afoot to re-brand genetically engineered seeds
as “organic” to make this monopolistic practice more palatable to the public.”

   o o o

Lawrence in West Virginia let me know that the mail order catalog/Internet company Sportsman’s Guide got another batch of pre-1899 Chilean contract Mausers, that they are selling sans papiere for $299. That is a fair price, these days.They have them in both 7×57 Mauser, and arsenal conversions to 7.62mm NATO. The latter are safe to shoot with standard 7.62mm NATO ball, but NOT with commercially loaded .308 Winchester soft nose, since it has substantially higher chamber pressure! If you want to shoot soft nose through these, then work up a mild hand load. Or, using a .30 caliber bullet puller collet and a reloading press, carefully pull the bullets from loaded standard 7.62mm NATO ball cartridges and re-seat soft nose 150 grain spitzer bullets. (This is how some high power rifle target shooters make “Mexican Match.”) By the way, for some details on the legalities of pre-1899 guns, read my Pre-1889 Cartridge Guns FAQ.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"It is a cruel thought that, when we feel ourselves standing on the firmest ground in every respect, the cursed arts of our secret enemies, combining with other causes, should effect, by depreciating our money, what the open arms of a powerful enemy could not." – Thomas Jefferson

Notes from JWR:

Update: There have been a large volume of orders received for the 33%-off sale for the “Rawles Gets You Ready” family preparedness course. I just heard from Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing, that they’ve already used up about half of their available supply of copies of “How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It”. So order your course soon, if you want to get one of the free bonus books!

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I noticed that we’ve surpassed 12 million unique visits, and we’re about to reach the milestone of 8,000 archived articles, letters, and quotes for SurvivalBlog. Please let your friends know about SurvivalBlog, especially that all of the archives are available free of charge. We don’t charge any fees, or have any “special member access areas”. Our Ten Cent Challenge subscriptions are entirely voluntary! A link to SurvivalBlog in your e-mail footer or in your web page would be greatly appreciated! Oh, and please mention that you read SurvivalBlog when you write your obligatory annual Christmas letter. Many Thanks!

Over-Planning: Get Thine Act Together!

I occasionally hear from consulting clients that get stuck in the rut of “over -planning”. They do so much planning for training, and planning for stocking up, that they never seem to get around to doing either! Lengthy “to do” lists are worthless if they never get implemented. This sometimes reaches absurd lengths, as illustrated by one of my clients that showed me a spreadsheet on his laptop PC, in which he not only compared prices from various vendors for ammunition, but also tracked the changes in their prices, over the course of two years. I asked him: “Well, when did you buy, and how much did you buy?” His reply: “Well, none yet, actually, but I’ve found the best sources, and I’ve logged their price increases, shown in dollar prices here, and in percentage terms, here. Look here: This company has increased it prices by 12% less than these others. Now look at this column: their prices are up an average of only 21% since this time last year.” So, while he was busy fiddling with his spreadsheets, the purchasing power of his money went down by more than 20%. He would have been ahead by at least 20+ percent, if he had just bought ammo a year earlier. But instead, he sat idly by and watched the value of his dollars melt. And these were dollars kept in a typical bank account, perhaps earning only 2% interest. (If he had invested precious metals, then he would have at least stayed ahead of the price increases on ammo.)

The foregoing instructs an important point: Avoid infinite planning cycles, and get started with some concrete steps at preparedness. Clip some coupons and go to you local discount grocery store or “Big Box ” store, and actually lay in some supplies, when prices are favorable, of course. If you are not sure exactly what you should buy, or about the shelf lives of various foods, or how to repackage them in oxygen-free sturdy containers, then get a copy of the “Rawles Gets You Ready” family preparedness course. The bottom line is that a good plan today beats a perfect plan, tomorrow. Or, as we often used to quote in the US Army: “Better is the enemy of good enough.”

From David in Israel: Off Grid Alternatives to Utility-Supplied Electricity

James
One of the most troubling things I see when speaking to people about going off grid is how badly they want to keep all of their electrical appliances and just spend many thousands of dollars on a battery bank more appropriate for a U-boat and solar cells or generators to keep them topped off. Having had a minor role in a micro-satellite system design proposal one thing you learn when confronted by limited power supply is to either economize or do without.

The appliances you own for on grid use are not efficient. They are built to be inexpensive or if you are better off durable, even the fancy electrical appliances out of Europe with the Energy Star are in reality a big waste of power once you are paying by the off grid watt for solar panels and battery banks. There is no reason a normal family shouldn’t consider an off grid option for their home. Even in a national emergency and societal breakdown it is very rare for supplies of diesel fuel, gasoline, kerosene, and LP gas to be unavailable for long periods at some price.

Dryer – Enemy number one especially in a large family, a solar clothes dryer is under $5 at nearly every hardware store, ask for a clothesline. Folding indoor drying racks are very popular in Israel. Even in winter indoor drying can be assisted by using a fan, it will also keep the air humidified. After trying the above and finding you just can’t make it there are LP gas heated clothes dryers, but these still need mains power for the drum motor.

Oven/Stovetop – There is no reason to use electrical power for cooking. Excellent caterer grade ovens and stoves are available at most appliance stores which run totally on gas. Some may use an electrical ignition or thermostat but nearly all can be retrofitted either with a piezoelectric (no battery needed) spark starter or can just be lit with a match avoiding the danger of the old style pilot light since they now are equipped with a thermal safety. Most people find they actually prefer gas once they are used to it as it is a more even heat. We have had good success using MSR camping kerosene burners when the gas to our home was unavailable for a few weeks.

Hot Water – Nearly any off grid home will benefit from the addition of a solar collector in addition to a well-insulated gas water heater. Think about turning down the thermostat or using a secondary gas instant heating system and low flow shower heads to stretch your hot water supply.

Heating – Most stores and contractors can provide a wide variety of wood, pellet, gas, kerosene, or oil-fueled stoves and furnaces and space heaters. Insulation is key to keeping your alternative heat system from breaking your bank account.

Power Tools – Some older large shop tools can be powered by a PTO shaft or belt system. The possibilities from a gas motor, to steam, to hydro and beyond are limited only by your imagination.

Water pressure – In many areas there is not enough wind for a windmill to keep a water tower full so an electrical or gas pump might work better once all factors are evaluated. If your retreat is located below the summit of the hill it would probably be much easier to install a pool or cistern on the summit to provide pressure for firefighting operations even if your pump is destroyed, for every foot of elevation .433 pounds of water pressure is required for filling your tower or cistern and this pressure is returned when water is used in your home or property. Anyone living in a wilderness area should have in addition to a gravity fed water system of at least 1,500 gallons and a 300 gpm capacity, and at least one portable reservoir. There are portable swimming pools that are the same as US Forest Service uses for firefighting, and a gas powered portable pump for emergency firefighting. Descending water can be run reverse through some pumps generating electricity making it a very effective and inexpensive way to store electrical power once your battery banks are full.

Refrigeration – Most readers if their inventory their refrigerator will find mostly leftovers or things which actually will last until consumption without refrigeration. There are high quality kerosene and LP gas powered absorption refrigerators, some with secondary mains power optional, available from a few suppliers even in the US.

For those with the skills required to build and test a system which can withstand 250 psi anhydrous ammonia, copying the old Crosley Icy-Ball chest refrigerator-freezer is a thrifty option. Since anti-drug manufacturing laws make obtaining anhydrous ammonia difficult, an icy-ball can be built with drains on the absorptive water side to self distill ammonia from cleaning solution. A warning: Ammonia is a dangerous respiratory irritant and any homemade system should be used with caution and kept and recharged outside in case of leakage. One DIY design includes a shutoff valve to keep the ammonia from reabsorbing until the valve is opened allowing it to be stored in a charged condition.

Before refrigeration people would buy eggs and milk fresh in the city or if they could have chickens and a cow or goat would produce their own. A chicken is easily consumed by even a small family once cooked, in less than a day.

A water evaporation cooler cabinet is another very cheap option for keeping food.

Lighting – Gas mantle lighting once found in most urban homes is not difficult to implement using either camping lamps and piped gas or better yet certified indoor lamps. While in college I worked in a gun and camping shop which sold a reverse fitting for refilling disposable Coleman LP gas cartridges from the older non-tip over shutoff bulk tanks making camp lights highly practical for hanging. It must be remembered that gas lighting presents an increased fire hazard so precautions including avoiding clutter and considering the floor and wall surface must be taken into account. Battery powered florescent and LED lights and LED nightlights are also useful for reading and small tinkering. Metal halide lighting is much more power friendly than incandescent if large areas require illumination for security purposes.

Communications – Your radio communications system should have a redundant battery bank and power supply should your services be required in an emergency. It should be remembered the operating rule of just as much power as required and the usage of low power consumption modes like CW. Tube systems are notoriously wasteful of power and tubes have limited life so these should be kept as backup systems in most cases. Only power up satellite Internet systems after you have typed up all the e-mails and set them up to send immediately after going online. There are offline viewers which will call up all the web sites you normally visit and grab them all for later viewing.

Television sets, satellite receivers, and large stereo systems are wasteful of electrical power if left on. A small notebook computer for occasional movies and an MP3 player for music will save many valuable watts. Unplug or employ a disconnect switch [or power strip with switch] on all electronics unless they are in use. This will protect them from power surges in addition to eliminating sleep-state power draw. [Also know as a “phantom load.”]

Telephone – If your retreat can obtain telephone service a secondary redundant system connecting you to selected neighbors can be set up in some areas by ordering an old style alarm or bell line to one central home, this is usually cheaper than a line with actual telephone service, and should work in most telephone systems even if the central office with its redundant power goes offline but the wires are still intact. The Telephone company will either splice the wire pairs at the neighborhood box or at the closest central office, officially only for alarm systems, it is possible to set up anything from long run Ethernet or simple voice lines with an old style “everybody rings” party line. This will not save off grid watts but is a good way to add redundancy to your retreat.

Safety – Install at least two combo carbon monoxide sensing smoke alarms in your home in addition to a smoke alarm in every occupied room. In these alarms, install long life lithium batteries and check on the first of the month and every time you change to or from daylight savings. DO NOT use rechargeable batteries for your smoke and carbon monoxide alarms!

Due to the higher fire risk using flame-based alternatives to electricity I even more strongly recommend installation of fire sprinklers in all rooms, flame hoods over all cooking surfaces with automatic sprinklers that have a manual activation, and at least two standpipe and hose cabinets with 100 gpm gravity flow minimum per standpipe, ABC-rated fire extinguisher, gloves, goggles, and Nomex face shroud. Install outdoor standpipes and stocked hose locker for wildfires, a charged mobile phone for 911 (BTW, you need not have an active calling plan to use a cell phone to call 911 in the USA) and if you have to retreat from interior firefighting. Most importantly have an evacuation and rendezvous family accounting plan and volunteer with the local volunteer fire department, learn when the fire is just too big to fight by yourself.

With an engineering eye it is often possible to reduce your home or retreat electrical requirements to an inexpensive few hundred watts once alternatives are considered. Shalom, – David in Israel

Letter Re: A Bulk-Buying Solution–Form a Buyer’s Club

Hi Jim,
The bulk-buy solution I settled on was to start my own food co-op or buying club, as an associate of a bulk supplier. They send out a monthly price list and can deliver weekly in my area with only two days’ notice. My orders must meet a minimum of $350 each and I must be present when the truck backs down my driveway in order to properly receive and write a check for the shipment. The driver calls me an hour ahead of time so I don’t have to wait around all day.

My aim was to make the buying club available to other nearby preppers strictly for bulk orders of long-term storage items but so far I have been the only one to use it.

The great advantage I see in a buying club is that it permits large purchases that would seriously raise eyebrows in a grocery store if they even permitted you to clean them out of the items you sought. (Some stores at least have threshold policies.) It meets the needs of procrastinators who finally decide that now is the time to stock the bunker. Also, the supplier’s wholesale warehouse would not be mobbed as early as grocery stores would after TSHTF because few consumers would even know about it.

A downside of the co-op approach would be curious close-by neighbors witnessing you receiving scores of bags, buckets, and boxes, possibly coming over for a nosy visit while you are unloading. This has not been a problem in my location due to my long driveway but would present OPSEC concerns to many. Members of a buying club club who pick up their orders at the drop-off point might benefit from unloading their vehicle while the neighbors are gone or asleep. Another potential downside is that authorities or criminals could seize the bulk supplier’s membership list in a search for “hoarders” of food supplies, an excellent reason for creating off-site caches. – Jim McC.

JWR Replies: Thanks for that suggestion. Two more caveats: Depending on your locale, you might need both a business license and liability insurance. We now live in a very litigious society. It is sad but true, someone that merely strains their back while on your property might file a lawsuit. So if you decide to operate with liability insurance, I recommend that you do not open up the organization to anyone except your relatives and trusted friends.

Letter Re: Converting Precious Metals ETFs to Physical Metals

Mr. Rawles,
I have read your blog with interest for several years now, and I am coming around to your view that using long-term physical holdings in precious metals as a “time machine” to fight inflation is a good strategy. I have some small investments in bullion-backed exchange traded funds (ETFs) that I would like to convert to physical holdings, but I am unsure of the most efficient way to proceed.

Of course I could always just sell the shares, head to the coin shop and pay the tax man next spring, but all I really want to do is shift the location of the bullion that I already own. It doesn’t seem right that this should be taxed. Okay, I’m not the first person to whine about unfair taxation, but is there some way to postpone Uncle Sam taking his cut for a while?

Are you aware of any method to convert shares in a precious metal ETF into physical holding without incurring a tax penalty?

Best Regards, – Brian in Michigan (another one of your “burbivalist” readers)

JWR Replies: Sorry, but I don’t know of any way to avoid the tax hit with cashing out an ETF. Perhaps a SurvivalBlog reader with a background in a tax law knows a way, and can comment.

FWIW, I’ve never recommended ETFs. Rather, I ‘ve always said: “tangibles, tangibles, tangibles”. To me, in the context of precious metals that means owning the physical metal and holding in your own hands. I recommend that all of your future precious metals purchases be done that way, to eventually minimize you paper or “synthetic” metals holdings,

Influenza Pandemic Update:

CDC Now Says There are Likely 4,000 Swine Flu Deaths in the US. This is 4x what they had been reporting.

Ukraine Dead at 213; Still No Sequences From WHO 1,192,481 Influenza/ARI; 62,462 Hospitalized

WHO Appeals to Ukraine for Help with Hemorrhagic Pneumonia

Senators Debate Requiring Paid Sick Leave for Workers with Flu

11 Die of H1N1 in War-Ravaged Afghanistan

Cheryl sent this article auto-translation link: Belarusian doctors: “Swine flu triggers a deadly form of pneumonia disease”

…and this data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Health.

Cheryl also did some digging and found this: Norway: 300,000 Infected. Doubling of cases has occurred, they are watching for the hemorrhagic pneumonia that occurred in Ukraine

Economics and Investing:

Jonas sent this: GLD ETF Warning, Tungsten-Filled Fake Gold Bars

GG flagged this: China: Loose US Policy, Weak USD Creating Speculation

From Pamela E.: Arrogant Fed hasn’t learned a thing

Items from The Economatrix:

White House Aims to Cut Deficit with Unspent TARP Money

AIG May Tap Credit Line as Commercial Paper Expires

Japan Derivative Market Unraveling

If You Thought the Housing Meltdown was Bad…

The Midnight Food Line at Wal-Mart. There are American families who aren’t eating at the end of the month and are literally hitting Wal-Mart at midnight, as soon as their food stamp benefits hit their accounts.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Yishai spotted a link to New Scientist, posted by Glenn Reynolds, over at Instapundit: Mini ice age took hold of Europe in months

   o o o

Steve S. mentioned a recent article in The Detroit News that briefly quotes JWR: Apocalypse now: Armageddon scenarios reach fever pitch

   o o o

SurvivalBlog’s British-born Editor at Large Michael Z. Williamson mentioned this incredible news story from Nanny State Britannia: Find a gun, go to jail.

   o o o

For the OPSEC-minded amongst us, Ron A. suggested this article with umpteen links: Web World Wide — 50 Free Internet Tools for Tin-Foil Hat Wearers. OBTW, I take offense at the “tin foil hat ” moniker. SurvivalBloggers’ hats are made of food grade reflective mylar, topped with a region-specific camouflage cover. 😉

   o o o

Ken M. suggested some short videos on how to escape from “zip tie” handcuffs. Ken’s comment: “This might come in handy if you are ever in a hostage situation.”

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“I, for one, do not trust Congress to be in charge of monetary policy. But I do not argue that the Federal Reserve System should maintain its independence from the Federal government. I maintain that it should be made completely independent of the Federal government: cut loose and left to fend for itself, just as the Second Bank of the United States was in 1836. It went bust.

I am not so naive as to imagine that this will happen in my lifetime, short of a true social collapse in which several million people die because of the collapse of the division of labor due to hyperinflation. I do not expect this to happen. But I can dream [of such a catastrophe].” – Dr. Gary North

Note from JWR:

A special two-week 25% off sale on canned Mountain House foods began this morning (Sunday, November 15th) at Ready Made Resources. (One of our most loyal advertisers.) For even greater savings, they are offering free shipping on full (unbroken) cases lots. But because of the higher handling costs, if you “mix and match” cans within cases, shipping will be charged.

Letter Re: Legality of “Law Enforcement Only” Marked Full-Capacity Magazines?

Hello,
I just had a quick question, I recently purchased a 100 round BETA C-MAG from a man at a gun show, but there are markings on the front that say “For Law Enforcement/ Government Use Only” . Does this mean I should not have bought it? And what should I do with it if it’s unlawful to have? Please help, – Peter B.

JWR Replies: Your drum magazine was produced sometime between 1994 and 2004, during a time when production for civilian sales was banned in the US. But that restriction marking became null and void after the 1994 “Assault Weapons” Ban’s sunset clause went into effect, in September, 2004. Except for residents of New York (where a separate state ban was enacted) and a few other hoplophobic localities, you should not be concerned. However, it is possible that magazine might be a source of confusion if a new full-capacity magazine production ban is ever enacted. Save your receipt, so that you can prove when it was purchased. And to avoid all ambiguity, you might eventually want to trade it off to someone in law enforcement or the military, for another one that is unmarked.

Letter Re: Home Hot Water Heater Tanks as an Emergency Water Source?

Dear Jim,
In all the posts I have been reading about storing water, I wondered if a typical home hot water heater could be used as a source of stored water in an emergency or TEOTWAWKI. Containing about 50 gallons in a glass enclosure, could that be considered a source of water, if [civic supply tap] water was not available or had run out? I’d be interested to hear your readers’ responses.- Diane G., Springfield, TN

JWR Replies: Yes, the water in your home’s hot water heater is a good source of emergency water, if your utility water is ever disrupted. (Or, if you are on a private well, and you don’t have access to a backup generator that can power your well pump.)

You can drain the water from the hot water heater, using a standard garden hose (or the cut-off stub of a garden hose), that has the female hose fitting. OBTW, it is a good idea to drain the rusty sludge out of the bottom of your hot water heater at least once per year. Not only will this mean that you will have cleaner water available from the tank in the event of an emergency, but it will also extend the life of an electric hot water heater. (Typically, the bottom electric heating element will burn out, once the sludge level eventually works it’s way up to the bottom element.)