Economics and Investing:

GG sent an article link which will not be a news flash to SurvivalBlog readers: What Americans might face next: inflation

CNN: Three reasons home prices are headed still lower. (Thanks to FG for the link.)

Monroe sent us this: Death and Taxes: 2010 Graph of Federal Budget. Monroe’s comment: “Not for the faint of heart… but then if you aren’t using real money…!”

Items from The Economatrix:

US Economic Disaster Worse than Weimar or Zimbabwe

Cities, Counties Take Back Corporate Tax Breaks

China Becomes World’s Biggest Gold Buyer in 2009

Eurozone Credit Contraction Accelerates

The Economic “Experts” Who Stopped Making Sense

Banks Accused of Profiteering in 2009



Odds ‘n Sods:

Bobbi-Sue sent a link to some crunch leading indicators with individual and regional railroads in accessible graphs.

   o o o

GPS-led travel goes amiss; Three Oregon parties rescued

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Super C. sent a link to some informative text and video about about unexpected immersion in cold water.

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Reader Mike O. sent us this: Packing Heat in Helsinki; Why do Finns own so many guns? This piece in the liberally-biased Slate, fails to mention several key facts. Among these: 1.) Although firearms ownership is widespread in Finland, its violent street crime rate is lower than in almost “gun-free” England. 2.) The journalist attributes the predominance of gun ownership to the hunting culture. This is partially true, but they failed to mention that many Finns consider private gun ownership “invasion insurance.” I guess the Slate writer never heard about the Winter War, and 3.) The two mass shootings that he mentioned were aberrations. Finns are largely peaceable folk. And whether the folks at Slate want to admit it or not, being well-armed helps keep their society peaceable.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“I am the good shepherd, and know my [sheep], and am known of mine.
As the Father knoweth me, even so know I the Father: and I lay down my life for the sheep.
And other sheep I have, which are not of this fold: them also I must bring, and they shall hear my voice; and there shall be one fold, [and] one shepherd.” – John 10:14-18 (KJV)



Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 26 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Luger, 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $249 value.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 26 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Preparedness for Digital Doomsday, by David W.

One subject I’ve not seen mentioned recently is that of data recovery and security. As a proponent of various disaster recovery plans for large companies during my tenure as in information technology auditor I’d like to propose a few ideas to the readers to increase the chances of keeping data post-TEOTWAWKI. No one plan works for everyone and your mileage may vary.

First off we all generate lots more data then we think. The most common insurance against loss of a home PC is regularly maintained backups to some form of storable media like DVD-r’s. However, in a post-TEOTWAWKI world we might not be able to count on having functional hardware to restore to on the other side of the crisis. The decision to attempt to maintain digital data must first be made. Assembling your family photos and all of the documents will most likely result in a heavy cumbersome item to store and/or move. Printing the entire 2009 year of this very blog results in quite a stack of paper. Keeping a for each monthly archive results in 12 megabytes of data – a very tiny amount to manage when we think of data in terms of gigabytes. Indeed assuming the same amount of content, about 66 years of monthly printouts of survival blog can fit on one CD-ROM, about 400 years on a single DVD-R.

Maintaining a digital store of data of your records, photos, videos and other media has its ups and downs. On the plus side you can store an enormous volume of material (you can even scan your entire paper file) on a small device such as a laptop or external drive. These items are fairly easy to grab and go – and they can be copied for redundancy to fairly inexpensive devices for backup purposes. The downside is that power is required, they are vulnerable to EMP, and in the event of total loss you don’t have a scrap of paper to rely upon. Even after scanning your papers to digital format, be sure to keep the most critical papers ready to go alongside your backup drive. It’s a big decision, however in my case I keep so much data that I’m going all out to preserve as much as possible. Ill lay out my strategy at the end of this article.

Supplying power is the key to using any digitally stored material post TEOTWWAKI. Laptops can require 10x less power than a typical desktop model. In my home office I use a desktop, but I frequently transfer all of the data to my laptop machine. That way I can grab my laptop and go if need be. Readers of Patriots may recall the use of a notebook for movie night years after the crunch. A solar charger and small inverter (175 watts or so) is generally sufficient to power a laptop with its 110/220 adapter. The prescient purchase of a 12 volt car charger for your laptop will save the inherent loss of running an inverter to step up to 120 VAC merely to convert it back down to around 12-14 volts DC. [JWR Adds: I agree! As I’ve previously mentioned in SurvivalBlog, a DC to DC adapter is far more efficient than a DC-to-AC-to-DC solution, with an inverter! Ditto for simple battery charging of NiMH AA, C, D, and 9 VDC batteries! For those, use a DC-to-DC charging tray, available for RV accessory dealers, such as Camping World.]

Another machine type to consider is a Mini PC or Book PC – these are available – and quite small for a grab and go situation. They require a keyboard, mouse and display but otherwise are self contained. Personally I prefer a laptop but there are some other choices out there.

Battery life and survivability is reasonably good with modern laptop batteries. Their life can be prolonged in several ways. First off they generally hold three to five hundred cycles of charge and discharge. They do not suffer the ‘memory effect’ of prior types of NiMh and NiCd batteries. See this site for more information on prolonging Lithium type batteries. That said, the cell will last longer if it is not cycled very often. If at all possible, run the laptop from its power adapter and use the battery only once or twice a month. In this way you should be able to get more years of service. Spare batteries can be purchased as well.

Hardware survivability is the other key. Unless you have deep pockets, buying multiple notebooks for redundancy is out of the question. I’d rather have a backup M1A then a spare laptop any day of the week. That said there are certain parts you can purchase that greatly increase your chances. Whatever machine you have, acquire a spare hard disk drive. These are now so small and cheap and readily available on ebay. Note that spare internal hard drives for laptops differ from external USB drives. There are great advantages to having both spare internal hard disks for your laptop as well as a few external drives. Another consideration can be the new solid state hard disks which are less prone to failure with no moving parts.

Step one is a data inventory. Bear in mind that I use a desktop PC and transfer a copy of the data to my laptop frequently. In my case I am very diligent about storing every file in the My Documents folder. By right clicking on the “my documents” folder, and then clicking the ‘general’ tab, windows will tally up the count of files and give you their total size. In my case, 193 GB

The next step is to make backups. With some quick and dirty math I know that it is quite a chore to burn these to the 41 (193GB / 4.7GB per DVD) but every four months I do so, anyway.. There are many other strategies but this works for me. Other folks like to burn only the data since the last backup. (Do a web search on “incremental backup” for more information.)) These are stored in a CD wallet and placed with my backup materials. I rely on these in the event that hardware and backup drives are all a total loss, and will recover the data after the crisis ebbs. After sizing the “my documents” folder and any other data folders I want, i plug in an external hard drive ( in my case a 1TB free agent drive which cost about $99 ) and before going to sleep, I drag and drop the files to copy on to it. By morning the copy is complete. This is done weekly in my case. I can tolerate the loss of one week of data but no more. Finally, after the copy is complete, I delete the prior documents on my laptop. (Be careful – if you use the laptop to change a file you must save it to another location or risk it’s loss) , and copy the fresh full backup I just made from the external hard drive to the folder on the laptop, which takes several hours and should be done at night.

What I end up with is my desktop PC with all of its data. I do my work here. I also have an external drive ready to go with the most up to date data, and a laptop already loaded with the same information, ready to grab and go at a moment’s notice. Or in the event of extended power failure, while sheltering at home, I can power up the laptop using my small solar charger to use the information stored there. Finally I have a CD Wallet that has most of the data if no hardware is working. Lots of redundancy.

For more advanced users, or those who like to learn and are fearless to experiment, I highly recommend the Linux world. Go to Ubuntu.com and download the latest disc image and burn it to a CD-ROM. You end up with a bootable CD-ROM that loads linux instead of windows (and can be toyed with without making changes to your PC if you just want to poke around.) That has many technical capabilities that exceed the scope of this writing. Many distributions of linux can support booting from a USB Jump Drive – with the ability to see the hard drive in the machine. Since the hard drive has the moving parts it is most prone to failure. One Linux strategy that I employ is having a USB Jump drive bootable to linux and DVD backups of my most critical data. Truly the top 1,000 of my most favorite family photos, and scans of my most important works all fit on a single DVD-ROM. Using that strategy I can boot Linux from the USB Jump Drive and see my most crucial stored data on DVD-R’s without the use of any hard drive. Not one moving part to break.

Everyone should consider developing some strategy. I find the idea of a functioning computer loaded with survival information, literature, my personal information, family photos and archives and other critical data a comfortable thought for TEOTWAWKI. It is also a great item for entertainment, and hopefully after the crisis I can assist others in recovering their digital lives.







Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Look at the means which a man employs; consider his motives; observe his pleasures. A man simply cannot conceal himself.” – Confucius [Ware’s translation, The Sayings of Confucius, p .26]



Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 26 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Luger, 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $249 value.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 26 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Survival Banking and Economics, by the Survivalist Banker

Survival is more than just having supplies, it is possessing knowledge, and specifically knowledge about free market (Austrian) economics and banking. One of the fundamental reasons for past productive success in the United States is because there were less intrusive government regulations, a smaller court system, and the division of labor was less cumbersome. Individuals were able to gravitate to where there was a demand that wasn’t currently being met, and were able to meet it without Big Brother wanting to not just regulate the behavior, but also steal a piece of the action if it was successful. If TSHTF, then we will need to return to our roots and be able to analyze where we can be productive and learn to maximize our trading capabilities.

While it is important to be able to sustain yourself as referenced by the many survivalist tactics in this blog, it is also important to consider what would happen if there was a form of Anarchy, meaning “no rule.” Have you thought about what would happen if the roads were privatized (Read Walter Block’s The Privatization of Roads and Highways)? Privatized courts, police, military, and even bodies of water? How does someone take advantage of this? Each person attempting to become self sufficient needs to study the nuances of these ideas because they could shape the community both during and especially after society attempts to put itself back together. Most people think of the intact government handling these aforementioned parts of society, but what if there was no government for a while, what if the oceans were even privatized? What is someone claimed the air?

If society as we know of today ceased to exist, the individuals who thrive will be those who didn’t just prepare to survive, but those that also have a business product in high demand and is lowly supplied. Survivalists need to look into their skill set and figure out their specialty. Is it creating low lactose dairy via goats? Growing herbs and being an apothecary? Eventually all our supplies will run out unless we have something that we can produce and trade. My recommendation is that someone specialize in a product more so than a skill. People will have a lot of time to learn new trades, but they won’t necessarily have the ability to learn both a new skill and have the resources to produce the said product.

An example would be to create a bank. May sound extreme but how many people really understand how a bank works? How many have studied Murray Rothbard and the ills of fractional reserve banking? Most people today know more about their iPod than the soundness of their bank’s balance sheet because they think the magical FDIC is guaranteeing their deposit. This has led to people only caring about the interest paid on their savings or money market accounts and not on the actual bank. Well the FDIC doesn’t really have any money, it just has our money that is taken via taxation. I think when banking returns post collapse, people will not put a deposit in banks with the idea of getting an interest payment on their money. Instead, they may note that the FDIC has been abolished due to lack of taxation, and that the only reason for a bank to exist is to safeguard the money, and they will be willing to pay a fee to do so. I am sure that there will not be many survivalists who not only understand banking, but will have a structural set up to protect the deposits. The entrepreneur who creates a vault like residence, has an ethical reputation in the community, has ample gold, silver, and yes even copper pennies, will most likely be the choice for a bank.

Now this banker would understand that he can have two types of accounts, he can have 100% of his reserves backed by a commodity such as gold, or can accept long term deposits with the idea of lending them out to other business’s or for real estate ventures. I don’t think anyone after TSHTF will want their money lent out at first, but eventually as society re-organizes itself, some individuals may want to take risk and allow their deposits to be lent out. If you have the time, go to YouTube and type in “How an Economy Grows and Why it Doesn’t” by Irwin Schiff. (This is Peter Schiff’s father). Although it is in the form of a cartoon, it explains how a primitive economy on an island grows and is fantastic for not only educating children, but also adults who aren’t economically inclined.

The combination of gold and guns for a banker is important, but it should also be noted that the new money may in fact not be gold or silver. Although it most likely will, at least in my opinion, be silver, there is the possibility it will be something else. The idea put forth by Frederick Hayek of competing currencies will probably be the scenario, and survivalists need to understand that currency is always spontaneously created. It is created out of need. It is possible that different parts of the U.S. will adapt different types of currency. A banker needs to be prepared to accommodate these types of transactions to help an economy grow from a primitive one to facilitate more advanced monetary transactions. Therefore understanding currency exchange is rather significant, as well as how to understand business’ and real estate on a risk adjusted basis, should the need for bank lending become demanded by the bank’s customers. Additionally, a banker may need to partner with another entrepreneurial survivalist with Radio/Communication expertise to stay in contact with other “start-up” banks, and be readily in touch with their customers.

The nuances of lending out deposits are great, and I’ll mention many Libertarians and Constitutionalists find it revolting, but it is still something that needs to be understood for a banker to be able to explain all available services to his potential customers. Understanding of all services is important, as it is the consumer via the free market that will dictate what is desired “post collapse,” not a government entity. The basis for banking, I believe, is the basis for modern society. Although my entry is devoted to economics and banking, there are many other novel business ideas that a survivalist could educate themselves on, my thoughts on this are “to each his/her own.”

In terms of education and where someone could go to get started, the booklist on this web site is fantastic, but for the topic of this entry I will make a few specific suggestions. First YouTube videos should be downloaded and stored on your hard drives. This will be very valuable because if the internet goes down then there will be no way to access YouTube, and I’m just using this site as an example since there are other comparable ways on the internet to find videos. Perusing the various Austrian economist sites (like the Mises Institute for starters), intelligent investors like Jim Rogers, Doug Casey, and Marc Faber, and specifically lectures on banking will be very valuable.

Besides just economics, investing, and banking, if there are any other areas of question such as the constitution or law, stocking up on some Andrew Napolitano video’s could be both useful and entertaining post collapse. If you really want a good laugh then just download things like Ben Bernanke was wrong, but I suspect that post-TSHTF no one will believe in Keynesian economics anymore anyway. Books will be important for trading, but as a banker, if you are able to hand out duplicated DVDs of topics to your customers you will help distribute the ideas of a free market post collapse in a novel way, and hopefully create not only better, but a more educated customer relationship than other competing bankers; although I’ll again mention that I think there really won’t be much competition in this area. Obviously food, protection, et cetera are needed to simply survive, but there is no way that free trade, and innovation via division of labor can truly help us after TSHTF unless we have sound banking, and an educated banking populace.



Letter Re: Photovoltaic Pathway Lights for Emergency Lighting

Dear Jim:
First, thank you for your informative site. I know you`ve helped me, and many others fill in the gaps in knowledge for preparation for times to come. I live just three miles from the San Andreas Fault , so even if the Schumer doesn`t hit the fan, “the big one” could come at any time. Thus I`ve been prepping for many years, but it was a wind storm that helped me think of this trick.

The local utility power recently went down and the girls broke out some candles,while I grabbed a couple of battery powered lanterns. Candles are great, and would not be with out them, but have inherent fire danger, I had just purchased a dozen solar yard [pathway] lights, on close-out sale for about $30 [for all 12]. With all the lights down in the neighborhood they seemed very bright all of a sudden, so I twisted off the fat Frisbee-shape tops ,and brought them inside. I started placing them throughout the house, and was able to bring a little light to each area, they are not bright, but you could walk around the entire house,with out bumping it to anything ,without any other supplemental lighting.

I started playing with improving the lighting produced by them when I realized what a great safe reusable alternative they could be. One easy way is to set them on top of a glass,and set a piece curved foil behind them, or place them in front of a mirror, I even made a little chandelier with four of them that was bright enough to play games under. I became so enamored with them that we use them every night now instead of leaving any lights at all on to make your way to the bathroom, et cetera. Another use they have is you can recharge your size AA batteries for flashlight or radio with them, they also are not going to attract a lot of attention, people may think you have a couple candles going, and [that you] are [just] as unprepared as they are. Meanwhile, you’ll save on propane and white gas.

I hope this is of help to others. If you give it a try then I’ll bet you`ll put a few in the house at night. Thanks for everything you do Jim, and may the Lord bless you , your family, and your readers, – Steve K.



Letter Re: A $20,000 Matching Donation to the Linda Rawles Memorial Fund

Jim,
I am offering a challenge for your readers. I will match dollar for dollar all donations made by your readers to Anchor of Hope up to a total of $20,000. If they will respond, we can raise $40,000 for Anchor of Hope Charities. So that you know that I am serious about this, I am sending my donation of $20,000 to them today. – An Anonymous Donor

JWR Replies: Thank you, Sir, very much for your tremendous generosity! The Anchor of Hope orphanage and school is a very worthy charity with hardly any overhead. I am hopeful that more SurvivalBlog readers will also make contributions! To get the ball rolling on your challenge offer, I just made another substantial donation.



Economics and Investing:

Even More MOAB Money: Bankers Get $4 Trillion Gift From Barney Frank

The Economist: A turbulent year in the currency markets is coming. (A hat tip to frequent content contributor G.G.)

Bill R. sent us this from The Wall Street Journal: Banks Risk Storms in Safe Havens

From Reader F.G.: California gears up to charge “Use Tax” on items purchased out of state

Items from The Economatrix:

Stocks Edge Higher as Jobless Claims Fall

Fannie, Freddie Proving Too Big to Shrink

North Korea Bans Foreign Currencies in Market Clampdown

$36 Charge for Not Using Your Credit Card

Goldman Sachs Denies Betting Against Clients on CDOs

US Studies Banks’ Handling of Toxic Assets

Pension Fund Sues Morgan Stanley Claiming Bank Knew Investments Were Bad



Odds ‘n Sods:

The mainstreaming of survivalism continues: Newsweek now seems to be saying that individual preparedness is a good idea. (Thanks to Mike F. and several other readers for sending the link.)

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Wendell in Tx. wrote mention a source for fish traps, Heinsohn.com. They run a country store in Texas.

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Ohio Jim mentioned that starting Friday, January 1st, you can’t drive an APV on your own property in Ohio unless it’s registered and licensed.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“The clocks stopped at one seventeen one morning. There was a long shear of bright light, then a series of low concussions. Within a year there were fires on the ridges and deranged chanting. By day the dead impaled on spikes along the road. I think it’s October but I can’t be sure. I haven’t kept a calendar for five years. Each day is more gray than the one before. Each night is darker – beyond darkness. The world gets colder week by week as the world slowly dies. No animals have survived. All the crops are long gone. Someday all the trees in the world will have fallen. The roads are peopled by refugees towing carts and road gangs looking for fuel and food. There has been cannibalism. Cannibalism is the great fear. Mostly I worry about food. Always food. Food and our shoes. Sometimes I tell the boy old stories of courage and justice – difficult as they are to remember. All I know is the child is my warrant and if he is not the word of God, then God never spoke.” – Viggo Mortensen as The Man, in The Road, (2009), screenplay by Cormac McCarthy and Joe Penhall. (Based on the novel by Cormac McCarthy.)