Letter Re: Understanding Human Immune System Response to Infection

Hello! I just finished reading Patriots   for a third time – INCREDIBLE book. I’m also a good friend of “Dr. Buckaroo Banzai.” I have a master’s degree in immunology and teach in a nursing program at a local college. My comments are aimed at the general education of the readership of your blog. The immune system operates largely on the function of T-helper cells. There are two main T-helper varieties. One variety (T-h1) deals with intracellular pathogens (viruses, few bacteria) and the other (T-h2) deals with extra-cellular pathogens (majority of bacteria, protozoa, fungi).  What separates these two groups are the cytokines (chemicals which modulate immune response) that are released. T-h1 cytokines promote immunity to intracellular pathogens AND SUPRESS the function of T-h2 cells. What this means is that the body’s response to a viral infection WILL leave the patient more susceptible to a bacterial infection. The opposite is true as well – bacterial infections leave the body less prepared to deal with viral infections. Just thought you’d want some of the background here! Keep up the good work, keep your powder dry, and God bless! – Dr. Rocky J. Squirrel

Letter Re: Power Outage Alarms

Thanks for keeping up the good work. I have inadvertently discovered a great power outage alarm. We were bought a carbon monoxide detector a while back. Whenever the power is cut, or the unit is un-plugged, it WILL wake you up!   I don’t know how long it continues to go off because it is so loud, I get it stopped right away. This is an item we should all have, too, just to detect the carbon monoxide. – Sid

Note from JWR:

Today we feature still another entry for the SurvivalBlog writing contest. The prize is a transferable four day course certificate, good for any course at Front Sight. Get your non-fiction articles submitted via e-mail by the end of November to be considered for the contest. Most of the articles that have been submitted thusfar are fairly general.  Feel free to submit detailed articles on specific topicsAll will be considered for posting.

Jeff in Afghanistan on: The Combat/Survival Mindset

I have been a soldier, police officer, and am now working overseas as a security contractor in Afghanistan. I’ve attended and given a great deal of firearms related training, and over the past few years I’ve started to see a serious deficiency in typical law enforcement and self defense training. The United States is a country filled with people who live lives mostly untouched by serious violence. That fact is a good thing, and is a testament to our country, but it handicaps us in the way we train ourselves and our warriors, particularly our police. I want to cut directly to the main issue I see. In my experience most shooters who practice with any frequency have decent basic skills. I see quite a few who are very good shots and have some basic tactical skills. Americans have access to good firearms and equipment, as do American police officers. However, I believe most self defense minded people, and indeed most police officers, are trained to fail by their departments, their instructors, and their society.

Most police departments require officers to qualify quarterly, and many departments are moving toward realistic shooting and away from static paper punching. The department I worked for offered different holsters for officers, and if officers wanted to change, they had to practice with the holster and demonstrate at the range that they could smoothly draw and make accurate shots very quickly. Technically most of the officers were decent and some were quite skilled with their equipment. Many fired their weapons on a weekly basis and dry fired daily to keep skills sharp.

Where the department and society in general let them down was in mental preparation. If an officer is involved in a shooting, the officer is immediately put on suspension while the incident is investigated. Most of the time, though admittedly not all, the suspension creates a pall around the officer. Counselors are brought in and the officer is typically required to attend. The legal environment is such that officers live in fear of the almost certain law suit that will follow the shooting. If the officer has done everything right, the chances of losing an actual trial in front of a jury are small, but officers know the agency/city or county my settle for a lesser amount to put the issue away. City managers would rather write a smaller check and settle with the wounded or dead criminal’s family than suffer the small percentage chance of suffering a multi-million dollar judgment in court. This scenario assumes the officer survived the shooting, or more accurately, applied all his training to the situation, made the right decisions, and used his skill with his weapons to defend his life or the life of another. Many other officers lose their lives because the doubts and fears we train into them cause them to hesitate at the critical moment and lose the encounter.

We have in effect trained our officers to fail. This applies to citizens training for self defense as well, because much of the training taken by citizens is at the same schools police officers use. Indeed, at the local level, many of our police officer run side businesses and train locals in basic skills so they can qualify for concealed carry permits.
The fact that an officer is immediately removed from duty after a shooting, investigated while the media has a field day and his department offers non-committal statements until they see which way the legal/public opinion wind is blowing pounds the idea in the officer’s mind that he has done something wrong or heinous. The officer is taught that defending himself, doing the job he was hired to do, is bad. He is also taught that he should feel quite remorseful after the action, and due to that remorse require counseling. Those facts are also observed by his fellow officers. These activities set the officer up for a difficult future.

I understand the legal ramifications for a department and I know why officers are given days off after a critical incident such as a shooting. What I am arguing against is the passive and shameful mindset that accompanies a shooting. When an officer survives a shooting by employing his skills, he should be rewarded not taught to feel shame and fear of legal reprisal.
Likewise, a citizen who defends his family from an intruder at 3 a.m. has done a heroic thing, not something to be ashamed of. If you disagree with my stance here, ask yourself what you would say to a family member who shot an intruder: Would it be, “Oh my goodness, that is terrible, you must feel awful” or would it be, “Congratulations, your kids and family are safe and you did the right thing.” If you read this website, you might be one of the rare people to offer encouragement, but you also know what the majority of people would say.

My Experience
In my current position I face more violence than I did as a soldier or a police officer. I also face a less complicated legal environment, though I do occupy a gray area in terms of use of force in this country, and therefore have to worry about losing my job or suffering prosecution in local courts. I have been in several shootings here, some that would best be described as small battles. A few times I have been in one, and then in another later in the day. I am not given time off, counseling, or therapy, nor do I need it. The actions I have taken were proper and I do not lose a wink of sleep over it. Speaking to my police friends brought home these problems for me, because I heard repeated statements such as, “How do you deal with it, that must be very tough…etc.”

The work can be difficult, but I was hired because I am an armed professional, and I should not fall to pieces the first time I am required to demonstrate that professionalism. If I had fallen apart, my employer would have been right to fire me. I don’t suffer any mental anguish over my work, because I am a professional, understand my environment, and act properly. These lessons may seem far removed from your situation, but if you carry or own a weapon for protection, your outlook should be the same as mine. It does no good to survive a shooting, and then crumble afterward.

Societal Issues
Our society will not admit that it is proper to defend yourself or your family at the current time due to several factors in my opinion, but that does not make the desire to defend yourself and your family any less worthwhile or heroic. The United States has had an increasing standard of living for many years, and many people are generations removed from genuine life threatening hardship. This has resulted in a mental and physical softening of the general population. They have never been faced with life and death choices and cannot truly conceive that others have. It is also a fact that it takes large amounts of money to own media outlets and most people who have enough money to own or hold high positions in such media outlets reside in major cities. They live in a world even more insulated than most other Americans (already an insulated group as a whole), and they present their view of the world in their newspaper or on their television channel. Thus Americans see a skewed view of life in the media. I am not broaching the “liberal bias” issue here, simply saying that most of the people who own major media share certain life experiences and tend to represent those in the media. Those life experiences are not consistent with the way the majority of Americans live.

Issues You Should Consider
If you are involved in a shooting, whether as a police officer or a citizen, you should consider a few ideas. Be confident in yourself and your actions, but do not make broad statements to friends, the media, or peers until the legal situation is resolved. Don’t wear offensive or tasteless clothing (such as, “The only good criminal is a dead criminal,” or “Gun control means shooting with two hands”) either before or after the incident. While these things may seem funny, you will be tried in the court of public opinion as well as a court of law, and both may be done concurrently at times. You should not want your actions to appear lighthearted or frivolous about what you have done. The confidence you should have is not the kind to trumpet on a t-shirt or bumper sticker. You have protected yourself and/or your family and you should be proud and confident, but not to the point of your own detriment.
If you are a police officer, attend any training and or counseling your department requires. But do so with an air of quiet confidence, not shame or fear. If your department gives you several days off after the incident, don’t sit home and brood about the incident. Take your spouse and children out of town for a few days to a place you will all enjoy. Go to dinner and be your normal self. You will instill confidence in them by your actions, and they will learn valuable lessons about self defense and dignity from you. Conduct yourself as properly as you did during the incident, and be happy, because you are still alive and able to enjoy the ones you love.

We all have a right to a decent, safe life. When some thug tries to steal that right from us or someone we love, and we shoot him, we have not done a bad act, he has. We cannot change our society as a whole, at least not quickly, but we can change how we feel and view our own actions. Be proud of yourself and your decision to be responsible for your own life and continue holding your head high if you are forced to use your firearm to defend yourself or your family.

Letter Re: CONEX Containers

I’ve recently been shopping around for used sea containers [Continental Express or “CONEX” transoceanic shipping containers], primarily to replace the weathered sheds that came with our property. While I haven’t sold my wife on the idea yet, we have been looking at metal sheds, which are more expensive and much less durable. You can purchase sea containers for a fairly reasonable price (approximately $1500 for a 20’ unit). Naturally, I started thinking about other possible uses for them (shelter, fallout shelter, etc.), and wanted to see if you, or any other bloggers, had any experience with using them in the survival context. They’re weather tight, can be purchased insulated, and are steel. Seems like there must be some pretty interesting possibilities there. – P.H.

JWR Replies:  I agree that despite the recent price increases, CONEXes are still a bargain. Many thousands of U.S. soldiers and Marines are billeted in converted CONEXes in Iraq.  These are called Containerized Housing Units (CHUs).  This consists of CONEX retrofitted with a door, window, top vent, power cabling, and an air conditioning unit.  These are pretty Spartan accommodations, but it sure beats living in a tent.

Just keep in mind that if you use a CONEX for above ground storage then a “spinner” vent should definitely be added to the roof . Why?  Because CONEXes tend to sweat inside.  (For the same reason, do not stack cardboard boxes directly against the interior walls.)

Don’t count on a CONEX being truly secure storage if your retreat property is not continuously occupied. Welding on a shroud to protect a padlock from attack by bolt cutters is a good idea. But given enough time, a determined thief will just come back with a cutting torch.

Perhaps some SurvivalBlog readers will have some detailed suggestions for the various uses of CONEXes, or if any of you are deployed troops that are billeted in a CHU, please e-mail me with your comments!

Letter Re: STANO Components

I am fairly new to the survival lifestyle and I’m still learning. I’ve been in the military and have been hunting and shooting since I was a small child, so I’m okay there. I’m interested in obtaining some night vision goggles for use after hurricanes (I live in southeast Louisiana) and for patrols if TEOTWAWKI occurs. One of my neighbors is way ahead of me and has actually done some business with you on Valmet parts, etc. He trusts you and I trust him, so I wanted to get your opinion on STANO Components. I assume that since they are a link on your website that you have personal experience with them and that they are a reputable company. However, in today’s world, I feel it is necessary to confirm this. Would you please share with me your feelings and opinions regarding STANO Components? Thank You, – R.V. in Louisiana

JWR Replies: I only know of Al Glanze (who operates STANO Components, Inc., in Silver City, Nevada) by reputation. But what a great reputation! One of the SurvivalBlog readers featured in the Profiles section (“Mr. Tango”–a night vision expert) told me that he has bought nearly all of his night vision gear from STANO Components. He tells me that Al Glanze is extremely reputable, sells only top quality gear, and has a fantastic reputation for customer service. He mentioned that on several occasions Al was willing to let “Mr. Tango” hand pick image intensifier tubes based on “in the field” side-by-side nighttime tests. (Checking for subtle differences such as minimum scintillation–commonly called “the sparklies.”) Virtually all of the U.S.-made scopes that STANO Components sells come with certified data sheets. (Stating the exact number of line pairs and other critical data.)

Beware that there is a lot of junk on the night vision market–especially Russian junk–with fake data sheets. Most of the rebuilt U.S.-made equipment one the market was put together on someone’s kitchen table, often using image intensifier tubes of dubious quality with an unknown number of hours of operating time. But, in contrast, you can buy from STANO Components with confidence.

Letter From Argentina Re: Post-Collapse Political Turmoil, Health Care, and Gambling

Mr. Rawles.
I read your book and I found it both entertaining and full of information as many others did. I live Argentina, South America where things have been hard after the 2001 economical collapse we suffered. We changed five presidents in one week, if you can believe that, and well… we are struggling to get back on our feet, though it sometimes it seems that it’s impossible. “When it finally seems as if we hit bottom, someone starts to shovel.”
I started reading your letters on Survivalblog.com and find them, again full of valuable insight. There are a couple of things that, in my most humble personal experience, might differ from what you estimate may happen after a crisis. Medical health companies, for example have made a lot of profit. This is because public health isn’t worth a penny, they are on strike most of the time and lack the most basic health implements like disposable needles, cotton, etc. People either have private health insurance or die like rats over here. As for the popularity of gambling and casinos, don’t ask me why please, I’m clueless, but it seems that the poorer the people, the more they gamble. Most poor neighborhoods, some that even lack tap water or gas service, places that don’t even have light, there you can find one big shiny Bingo in the middle of the place. Please excuse my English, its not as good as it should be. Just wanted to let you know how things developed over here, concerning those issues, thought you might find them interesting. I posted some general thoughts concerning urban survival at a place called frugalsquirrel.com under the name of FerFAL at the General Patriot Discussion forum: http://www.frugalsquirrels.com/ubb/ultimatebb.php?ubb=get_topic;f=1;t=044387;p=1

It’s just things I noticed, some stuff I do myself to get by, in this now-turned Third World country. Regards, – Fernando in Argentina

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

I try to keep my daily quotes short, so forgive me for subjecting you to four stanzas. But that article from Jeff in Afghanistan reminded me of Kipling…

If, by Rudyard Kipling

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting;
Or, being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or, being hated, don’t give way to hating;
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise;

If you can dream – and not make dreams your master;
If you can think – and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with triumph and disaster
And treat those two imposters just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn out tools;

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: “Hold on”;

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings – nor lose the common touch;
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you;
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run –
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And – which is more – you’ll be a Man, my son!

Note from JWR:

Today we feature yet another entry for the SurvivalBlog writing contest. The prize is a transferable four day course certificate, good for any course at Front Sight. Be sure to enter your non-fiction articles via e-mail by the end of November to be considered for the contest.

The Micro-Farm Tractor, by “Fanderal”

My goal, like so many of us, is to be able to pre-bugout, to a retreat I can live on full time. I dream of having a few acres out in the country where I can mostly support myself on what can be produced on my own land. When I first started to think about it, and plan for it, the first question of course is “How much land?” After getting past the obvious answer, “As much as possible”, came the more reasonable answer of: “enough to do accomplish my primary goal of optimal self-sufficiency.” After more study I came to realize that five or so acres is about all I could really work. Five acres, when worked intensively, will produce far more than a family of four can consume. This five acres would contain everything, House, Barn, a one to two acre garden, chickens, Rabbits, Goats, et cetera.

So having settled on five to seven acres, I turned to the issue of what tools, equipment, and other assets would be needed to make my micro-farm work. Beyond the usual hand tools. And shop tools, my research led me to study power equipment appropriate for the Micro-Farm. What I found was the Two-Wheel, or “Walk-behind” Tractor. A good example of the class is the BCS 852 with a 10 horsepower diesel engine. It has a single cylinder engine mounted in front of a trans axle. The Trans axle drives a pair of wheels that are from 3.5 to 6.5 inches wide, and 8 to 12 inches in diameter. It is also equipped with front and rear Power Takeoffs (PTOs) used to transfer power to a variety of implements. For me this is the optimum retreat utility tractor. To justify that statement I need to go into a bit more detail as to why. As with all things, this selection is based on my plans and intentions, but I believe that they are generic enough to qualify as a general solution for most people, but as always Your Mileage may Vary (YMMV).

The factors I am taking into consideration are:

Size of Farm.
Number of people available to work it.
Fuel availability/economy
Life expectancy under the projected load

The truth is most of us have not, or will not be able to acquire more than five to 10 acres of land. If you can get more, fine, get it; you can’t have too much land, but you can leave yourself short on other things by buying more land than you really need, or can work.
In most cases the garden will be run by just one or two people, either because of off farm employment or the kids may be grown and gone before you make the move. People that are already doing this will tell you that one to two acres, if worked as intensively as is reasonably possible is all one person can handle. If you have more land, then you have the option of bartering produce, for labor to work more acres. But I would still keep it in two-acre units.
The core concept of survivalism/preparedness is independence; you can’t be independent if you can’t do most, if not all the maintenance yourself. While yes, most anyone with any mechanical aptitude at all can work on most regular tractors, however they have four times as many cylinders, fuel injectors, and fuel lines, twice as many tires, use much more fuel, and mostly are too much tool for two to five acres.
When the world ends there will be NO more fuel deliveries from anywhere, and if there are then they will be prohibitively expensive. So you need a fuel that you can produce yourself, to me this means biodiesel. It’s a fuel you can make yourself; it will substitute directly into the tank with NO modifications to the engine, and gives almost exactly the same performance, as regular diesel.
So with these concepts in mind I started thinking about what the ideal tool would be. I eliminated most regular four wheeled tractors like the Ford 9N and the International Harvester (IH) Farmalls because to buy one of their modern counterparts new is very expensive, and to find parts for older ones that you can buy on the cheap can also be expensive. While there has been a lot of development in compact and subcompact tractors in the last few years, they are mostly compact technical wonders that have all kinds of computerized fuel injection systems, high volume, high pressure hydraulics, and just lots and lots of things that need to be maintained or fixed. Simplicity is crucial.
My search for information about small farm tractors, as with most things today, started online. I started from the position that a Walk-behind Tractor would be the optimum choice because on the surface it met two of the most important criteria, Fuel requirements, and maintainability. The MOST important question remained, how much land could be worked with it and still expect it to last a lifetime.

Dean M., one of my online sources, who has actually been running a Market Garden since 1989, says that much of that time was spent downsizing his garden to it’s current 1.5 acres. According to Dean,one to two acres is about all one person can work, when trying to maximize the production of a garden. The general consensus is, that the limit on how large a garden you could work with one of these machines,is really set by how much labor was available, rather than the capacity of the machine.
To answer that question I needed input from an expert. In my web search I found many companies that make and sell this kind of equipment, but they are almost ALL overseas. Of the domestic companies most only sell Walk-behinds as a sideline. I found a company in Owenton KY, which specializes in small-scale commercial agriculture equipment. Joel Dufour founded Earth Tools in 1977, and all they sell is Walk-behind tractors. .

I asked Mr. Dufour about the capability, capacity, and requirements of walk behind tractors for a TEOTWAWKI scenario. He recommended not the largest one he sells, the 948 but rather the model 852, which comes with an optional 10 hp diesel engine. He says the 852s are far more versatile than the 948. Based on what his customers are actually doing with the units, and have been doing for nearly 30 years he gave me the following information about capabilities, and requirements of these units.
You can work up to two acres of Market garden per person, and/or about 15 acres of Haying for livestock. With proper preventative maintenance, used in a commercial agricultural operation, a tractor like he sells will last 20+ years. They can haul up to one ton on a two-wheel trailer. Depending on the specific task, running 8 hrs on a gallon of fuel is possible. He has several customers that make their own biodiesel and run their 852s on it, and have reported no problems.

When it comes to maintenance requirement the diesel engines are designed for 5000 hours TBO (Time Between Overhauls), and are meant to be rebuilt twice before replacing crankshafts or connecting rods. That means that the engines have a 15,000 hr life span minimum (with proper maintenance). For routine maintenance they only use 1.5 quarts of oil per change, which needs to be done every 75 ours or annually–whichever comes first. The oil filter is cleanable and the air filter is replaceable. The conical clutch lasts 1000 – 2000 hrs, and can be replaced in less than 2 hrs. All maintenance, including overhauls can be done with regular hand tools, the only exception being one $25 tool for working on the transmission if it’s ever needed.

One point that Mr. Dufour thinks is undersold is safety. He pointed out that one of the most common fatal accidents on a farm is a tractor rollover. When operating one of these units on a slope, even if you were on the downhill side of the machine, and you couldn’t get out of the way, they only weight about 300 lbs, so it is very unlikely you would suffer a life threatening injury. Where as with even the smallest of standard tractors if it rolls over on you, death is the very likely outcome.

So let’s look at how these machines match my original requirements:
Size of Farm:
A 10 HP machine will work as much land as most of us will be able to get, and work, without being too big for the job.
Number of people available to work the land:
The constraint is number of people vs. planting/harvesting schedule; again it is well matched to the 5 to 15 acres, with which most of us will wind up.
There is nothing that the owner can’t do on these machines, from routine maintenance to a complete overhaul, which would require more than basic mechanics hand tools, and one inexpensive specialty tool.
Safety: I don’t care how much the machine can do or how well it does it, the one thing that you absolutely cannot afford in the post-TEOTWAWKI world, is an injury. So the machine that is least likely to cause me harm is WAY up on my list
Fuel availability/economy:
These units can be had with Gas, or Diesel engines. Gas engines can be run on alcohol with modification. Diesel engines can be run on biodiesel without modification.
Life expectancy under the projected load:
You can work as much acreage as you have time and people to work without over working the tractor. They are truly an agricultural grade machines, not glorified Home duty units.
While I’m not trying to sell this particular tractor, however if we use its characteristics as a baseline then I think it is fare to say that a diesel Walk-behind Tractor would make an ideal vehicle for a Micro-farm. It is the core power unit for almost all farm tasks, can be adapted to do just about anything else that requires up to 10 HP; from electrical generation to pumping water, with the right connection to the PTO. It also meets or exceeds the core requirements that I laid out at the beginning. This is not to say that there might not be other machines that would also work, but if you are starting from scratch like most of us, then this is a good objective solution.
Related info:

JWR Adds: 
From the standpoint of a small acreage survival retreat, a walk-behind tiller/tractor makes a lot of sense. WTSHTF, fuel will be at a premium, so it is logical to get something that will give you maximum useful work with minimum fuel consumption. And as Fanderal mentioned, they will also minimize tractor rollover accidents. This is especially important at a retreat with a lot of newbies. (Just because you are accustomed to thinking “safety first” at all times doesn’t mean that your recently-transplanted Big City friends and cousins will be!) 

If you need to cultivate significantly larger acreage, then a full-size tractor makes sense, but only of course with significantly more training and more voluminous fuel storage.  BTW, the new “crawler” (rubber tracked) tractors have a lower center of gravity that traditional wheeled tractors and hence are much less prone to rollovers.

I used a gas engine Troy-Bilt Horse tiller for several years and found it very reliable. The BCS products are made in Milan, Italy. At a list price of $3,799, these are not cheap.  But if you go with the principle of “buying something sturdy and reliable once, versus buying something flimsy, multiple times”, then this sort of purchase makes sense. To get the most for your money, shop around for a slightly used, diesel-powered unit.

One other consideration: Tractors are noisy and can be heard from a long distance. Wear hearing protection whenever operator a tractor or tiller.  In a post-TEOTWAWKI survival situation, this may mean one individual wearing earmuffs operating the tractor, and another individual that is concealed 50 to 100 yards away, on dedicated security duty.  (Otherwise, operating noisy equipment like a tractor or chainsaw might be a noisy invitation to get bushwhacked.)

Here are some additional useful URLs:

Letter From “Dr. Buckaroo Banzai” Re: Pneumonia Risk–Time for Your Pneumovax?

Dear Mr. Rawles,
I think the pneumovax is a good idea. However, there are simply no data to support your statement that “pneumonia co-infections are the biggest killer associated with the Asian Avian flu.” Whether even a single victim of the current H5N1 avian flu in Asia has even developed pneumococcal pneumonia has not been reported. I doubt it. These people appear to be dying too quickly for that to be the problem. I think they are simply dying from viral pneumonia.

In 1918-1919 many flu victims died within 24-48 hours of becoming febrile. Those deaths certainly had nothing to do with pneumococcal pneumonia.

That being said, in ordinary flu epidemics, old and debilitated people do develop secondary bacterial pneumonia after their systems are further weakened by viral pneumonia with the flu. In many cases, these secondary pneumonias are caused by the pneumococcus.
So there is undoubtedly some utility in the pneumococcal vaccine. Remember, it only protects against 23 varieties of a single microorganism, the pneumococcus. As you can gather from its name, though, the pneumococcus is the poster child of bacterial pneumonia, and it certainly can and does kill.

Whether or not there will be a worldwide pandemic of H5N1 avian flu depends only on the virus — if it has become or will become easily transmissible from human to human, there will be a pandemic, because it is antigenically novel and nobody has much if any immunity to it.

In the final analysis, the scope of the pandemic also depends only on the virus — on its attack rate and case fatality rate. The attack rate means how many people in a population become infected –105 — 25% — 50% — and the case fatality rate means how many of those people die. An attack rate of about 25% appears likely for a true flu pandemic. Currently the case fatality rate in Asia appears to be about 50%, but I think that is wildly over-estimated, since only the dead and dying are being counted, and there may be many milder cases that are going undiagnosed and unreported. A case-fatality rate of 0.5% to 1% would be typical of a bad flu, and a case fatality rate of 2% or 3% was usual in most communities in 1918-1919. Anything more than that, even 5%, would be devastating. Remember that some isolated communities were more susceptible, and wiped out, in 1918-1919. All the best, – “Dr. Buckaroo Banzai”

JWR Replies: Your point is well taken, Buckaroo. When I saw references to “pneumonia co-infections” I mistakenly assumed that they were mostly pneumococcal pneumonia infections. So I went back and did some more reading. I was mistaken.  Most of the pneumonia deaths were indeed due to H5N1 viral pneumonia–which of course Pneumovax 23 won’t prevent.  But I’m glad to hear that you agree that it is a good thing to get a Pneumovax 23 inoculation, nonetheless.

Letter Re: Rokon Off-Road Motorcycles

Dear Mr. Rawles:
Look forward to your blog everyday – keep up the great work! A question and suggestion for an article, from the point of view of those who must have a good bug-out plan….1. Got a source for a mechanical (as opposed to electronic) power out alarm? Under many scenarios the first warning of a Schumer / fan interface will be the power out (or confirmation that TS is REALLY HTF). Electronics are vulnerable to EMP, but a mechanical alarm could give you hours head start of TSHTF….2. Bug out vehicle. The first thing I thought after seeing the jam on the freeways out of Houston was – gee, a motorcycle could sure come in handy – less fuel needed, weave around stranded cars, drive on the grass or cross-country around roadblocks, etc., etc. Seriously looking at the Rokon TWO- wheel drive all-terrain motorbike as a BOV.  See: www.rokon.com
1. A motorcycle can weave around stranded cars, drive on the grass or cross-country around roadblocks, etc., etc.
2. In a Rokon, BOTH FRONT & BACK wheels get power – can go rugged places no other ATV or motorcycle can
3. can carry 1,000 lbs. and tow a trailer up to 3,000 lbs.!
4. Multi-purpose – a mini-tractor in power and accessories – many agricultural implements such as:
* Disc Harrow
* Log Skidder
* Moldboard Plow
* Lawn Mower
* Broadcast Spreader
* Power Take-Off Kit
* Agri-Sprayer,
5. 5 to 6 hours on one tank, plus alternate fuel storage in the hollow wheels (if wheels not used for gas, can float the bike to ford a river!)
6. extremely rugged, high ground clearance, fat wheels for traction, etc., etc.
–Less cargo capacity vs. a car or truck
— Less protection for occupants versus a car or truck
— Max 40 mph.
–“Ignition Electronic Magneto” in the engine – potential EMP problem?
How vulnerable would you rate this vehicle to EMP?
http://www.kohlerengines.com/common/resources/tp_2503_a.pdf  – “N.” in Texas –

PS. I have no affiliation to Rokon, financial or otherwise, other than that I am a potential customer

JWR Replies: Your letter ties in nicely with today’s article about tiller/tractors. “Sturdy, slow and low tech” maybe the order of the day, come TEOTWAWKI.

RE:  …Got a source for a mechanical (as opposed to electronic) power out alarm?  That should be fairly easy to construct. These are probably already commercially made, but if there aren’t;  Imagine a relay, (powered from AC to DC adapter) that is in the normally open position when current is available. When the AC power goes out, the relay trips to the closed position and activates a battery powered alarm–something piercing like a Mallory Sonalert. Alternatively, it could even trip something low tech like an old fashioned spring-powered alarm clock bell.

Letter Re: Asian Avian Flu

Hi Jim,
Thanks for your excellent site. I read it every day but Sunday and enjoy most every article. However, while I believe it is important to be as prepared as possible for pandemics and every other kind of emergency, I’m convinced that the Avian “Bird” flu is contrived and a needless scare. Bill Sardi, on his excellent website, has numerous excellent articles, all well researched and documented, showing that this crisis is hysteria being fanned by government authorities (http://www.knowledgeofhealth.com/report.asp?story=Bird%20Flu%20Hysteria%20Fanned%20By%20Inaccurate%20News%20Reports.). I heartily recommend this site to all your readers. – G.M. in North Carolina

JWR Replies: There may be some exaggeration and hyperbole, but I do believe that the A.A. flu threat is real. Don’t count on on anyone in government saving the day.  Make plans to provide for yourself. Make plans to hunker down in self-quarantine for an extended period, preferably in a lightly populated farming region.