From Nanny State Scotland: MSPs get power to fine over climate change
o o o
North Korea Threatens US as World Anticipates Missile
o o o
From Cheryl: Plan to protect D.C. from nuke EMP attack
o o o
Bill Buppert mentioned a controversial video that uses movie clips to illustrate a point: The Four Stages of Revolution: Part 1 (and Part 2)
“There’s no such thing as life without bloodshed. I think the notion that the species can be improved in some way, that everyone could live in harmony, is a really dangerous idea. Those who are afflicted with this notion are the first ones to give up their souls, their freedom. Your desire that it be that way will enslave you and make your life vacuous.” – Cormac McCarthy (author of the disaster novel The Road
Today we present another entry for Round 23 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.
First Prize: A.) A course certificate from OnPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day OnPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried foods, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.
Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.
Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.
Round 23 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
One core tenet of the Survival and Preparation (S&P) culture that is often misunderstood, misapplied and has a high probability of failing, and that is “the bug-out”. I am prompted to write this after reading so many S&P-related books, blogs and forums where individuals are indicating that their primary plan, and the focus of their preparations, is bugging-out. The common discussion topics of bug-out vehicles (BOV), bug-out bags (BOB), bug-out land, etc, and the overall S&P lexicon confirm the importance placed on the bug-out concept. Although well organized and executed, a 1,600 mile bug-out is portrayed by some of “The Group” in the novel “Patriots”.
Don’t misunderstand, bugging-out does have a role in S&P: if your residence becomes completely uninhabitable, for any number of reasons (earthquake, radiation, toxins, fire, destruction, war, etc.), then relocation is mandatory. In these cases, being prepared to mobilize and relocate yourself, your family, and some resources is vitally important. Such situations force the prepper to implement Plan B. The problems with bugging-out are both numerous and severe, and are to be avoided or countered, if possible:
It has been well established by this blog and many S&P de facto leaders that outside of a few specific circumstances, the primary plan, Plan A, should always be to bug-in. Staying at your primary home has many advantages:
The problem arises when lack of adequate, fundamental preparation results in the need to bug-out, when it otherwise could have been avoided. In other words, Plan A (bugging-in at your primary home) must be abandoned unnecessarily and prematurely, and Plan B (the secondary and far worse choice) becomes the only option, due to the prepper’s own actions or inactions.
People frequently write about how their urban home would be unsustainable, over-ran, or likely destroyed in many potential scenarios. Therefore their preps focus on bugging-out. When times are good and relative tranquility prevails, there are many attractions to an urban lifestyle, with job availability at the top of the list. Recognizing the added risk and difficulty of post-SHTF survival in the urban setting, preppers often abandon bug-in preparations, relegating themselves to bugging-out. Different life choices, such as small town or rural living, or taking extraordinary efforts to prepare their urban home, increase the viability of Plan A. For me and many others, the post-SHTF advantages of rural life are secondary to the quality of life enjoyed in these slower-paced environs.
The math doesn’t support bugging-out. If one assumes that there are 305 million Americans and about 2.3 billion acres within the US, it sounds promising that there are 7.4 acres available to each American to which to bug-out. So a family of four should get almost 30 acres, right? Taking a closer look, inhospitable open cultivated farmland, open pasture, desert, wet lands, and bodies of water can largely be eliminated as places to which to relocate. Although these places could be inhabited, they are less attractive than “heading for the hills” as is often cited as the bug-out plan. What about the nation’s forests? There are about 747 million acres of forest that appear to be available for relocation. Data suggest there are 50 million “rural” Americans, and 255 million “urban” Americans. So we have some part of 255 million people that currently reside in about 60 million urban acres, looking to relocate on something like 757 million forested acres, which is about 3 acres per refugee. Not only is this not much space in which to live and forage, but:
In conclusion, I advise that one of two actions be taken to reduce the need for depending on a bug-out strategy:
Mr. Rawles,
At one time or another I have driven every mile of the trip as you described in your reply. Like you, I have encountered those who [are unfamiliar with the driving distances in the western US]. I’ve even met folks that cannot discern the difference in scale on a road atlas from switching the pages between Montana and Massachusetts.
I see this regularly with Army inspectors who call me and say that they want to fly into Billings, inspect Army Reserve units in Billings, Butte, Helena, Great Falls, Missoula & Kalispell all in two days and then fly out on the third day. 🙂
Not counting any of the half-day side-trips that you mentioned, Mapquest estimates a driving time of “19 hours, 31 minutes, and a Total Estimated Distance: 1,114 miles”. Regards, – Ed in Montana
James,
Grandpappy isn’t comparing apples to oranges correctly. His reloaded ammo pricing is for premium self defense bullets, which cost $150 or so per thousand. Most people are going to reload cast lead, which would cost $50 or 60 per thousand for a .40 S&W for example. If you price new premium self defense ammo, like Doubletap, it is going for around $700 a case. If you purchased new brass (why?) Hornady or Speer premium SD bullets, you would still be able to build your own (which we supposedly should not due to legal concerns) SD ammo for half the cost. And practice? Much, much cheaper with lead bullets.
Recent online ammo vendors (who have in stock) are trying to charge almost $500 for a case of .45 ACP 230 grain hardball (look at Natchez). You can load 230 grain lead roundnose (LRN) and duplicate the factory load for maybe $130 or so with good hard cast bullets included. Compared to today’s ridiculous ammo prices, you can make up the cost of your reloading setup in a case or two of ammo. Anyone who wants to shoot more than 500 rounds a year should be reloading. Thanks! – M.S.
Jim:
Grandpappy had a great article on reloading, but what about time? Time is money. Reloading is very time consuming. Between [the time required for] collecting the fired brass, sorting the brass, cleaning [or tumbling] the brass, de-priming the brass, adjusting brass specs to factory (sizing, case length, primer pocket, etc…), this alone is a huge labor and use of time.
This, and my worsening eyesight that keeps me from enjoying precision hand loads, is why I gave up on reloading and sold all my equipment and supplies. BTW, I made a bundle of cash selling my new and used brass and primers. Wow! I quadrupled my money.
No one seems to factor in time. I don’t know about you, but have a long list of to-do projects and brass prep is not one of them.
I’m sure glad I bought hard and heavy in ammo back in the old days. I’m set for my life and probably the life of my kid too. – Robert
JWR Replies: I agree that reloading is time-consuming, but it is a valuable skill. For anyone that makes a six-figure salary, it is probably not worthwhile as a hobby at the present time. But for the rest of us, that don’t make that much money, and a have a bit of time on our hands, it is well worth doing. It is particularly worthwhile for students and retirees. I love listening to music, and find that since it is a relatively quiet activity, reloading is a soothing, almost cathartic experience. But, of course, “your mileage may vary.” Regardless, it is a valuable skill. I recommend that SurvivalBlog readers at least take the time to learn how to do it, and lay in the appropriate tools and supplies. Reloading capability might prove invaluable in a long-term collapse.
OBTW, don’t overlook taking the same humidity precautions for powder and primers that you do for loaded ammunition. On that note, I should mention that I prefer using used Tupperware boxes for storing primer and percussion caps. They are airtight, yet they pose less of an explosion risk than metal ammo cans, in the unlikely event of a house fire. (I look for Tupperware containers whenever I go to garage sales, thrift stores, and farm auctions. Powder cans seal quite well by themselves. Again, for the sake of fire safety, they should be stored in a “blow open” plywood cabinet. Again, resist the temptation to store it in something confining like a 20mm ammo can.
GG spotted this article: The Real Crisis Is Food: Beginning of the Bull for Agriculture
Udo sent this: U.S. Home Prices Drop [Another] 6.8 Percent in April as Foreclosures Rise. JWR’s Comment: We are nowhere near the bottom! I don’t expect that for another four to seven years. With the exception of retreat properties, it is best to stay on the sidelines and rent, while you are waiting for the market to bottom. Then you can buy for perhaps 25 cents on the dollar.
Reader HPD liked this piece by Mish Shedlock: US Approves IMF Gold Sales; What Does It Mean?
Items from The Economatrix:
Asian Stocks Decline On Growth Concerns; BHP, Honda Motor Fall
States Turning to Last Resorts in Budget Crisis
Can the US Government Allow California to Fail?
Auto Industry Workers To Make Solar Products? Obama names another “czar” to help retrain employees
US Loans $8 Billion to Ford, Nissan for Green Vehicles. JWR’s comment:. This MOAB thingy juz gits bigga an’ bigga. Nissan? Is that an American company? (Not!)
BoA Resurrects Home Mortgage Advertising “Lender rebrands ex-Countrywide business, looks to restore trust” (Restore trust? With the same trustworthy “experts” at the helm?)
California Cuts Tax Exemptions For Kids Will increase a family’s amount due for 2009 by about $210 per dependent
Stock Market Gains (Wednesday) Ahead of Fed Decision on Interest Rates
May New Home Sales Dip 0.6%
Citi Boosting Salaries to Offset Lower Bonuses
Why Obama Must Bail Out California, But Won’t
The US and UK Will Both Default on Their Debt By Summer’s End
Cheryl flagged this: North Korea’s Strong New Threat
o o o
Reader Kevin A. suggested this piece over at LewRockwell.com: Survival Training: Be Armed, Store Food, Use Real Money, Secede
o o o
Kevin also noted that his regional newspaper, had a “how to” feature on building rainwater catchment barrels. Kevin’s comment: “While it focused more on the possible conservation aspects of using such a device, it’s becoming more and more evident that many preparedness tactics are entering the mainstream.”
"How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values?" – Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, December 5, 1996
Today’s first item is an article that was kindly contributed by Grandpappy–a past winner of SurvivalBlog’s ongoing nonfiction writing contest.
There are some significant cost differences between reloading shotgun shells and reloading pistol and rifle ammunition.
The following cost summaries illustrate these differences (all cost data collected in June 2009):
Pistol Ammunition Summary:
$0.270 = Total Cost of one New Factory-Loaded 40 S&W 165 Grain Pistol Cartridge.
$0.206 = Total Material Cost to Reload one Used 40 S&W 165 Grain Pistol Cartridge.
$0.064 = Cost Savings of Reloading one Used 40 S&W 165 Grain Pistol Cartridge.
Rifle Ammunition Summary:
$0.800 = Total Cost of one New Factory-Loaded 308 Caliber 165 Grain Rifle Cartridge.
$0.480 = Total Material Cost to Reload one Used 308 Caliber 165 Grain Rifle Cartridge.
$0.320 = Cost Savings of Reloading one Used 308 Caliber 165 Grain Rifle Cartridge.
Shotgun Shell Summary:
$0.240 = Total Cost of one New Factory-Loaded 12 Gauge 2.75-inch #7.5 Shot Shotgun Shell.
$0.410 = Total Material Cost to Reload one Used 12 Gauge 2.75-inch #7.5 Shot Shotgun Shell.
-$0.170 = Additional Cost to Reload one Used 12 Gauge 2.75-inch #7.5 Shot Shotgun Shell.
Shotgun Slug Summary:
$0.631 = Total Cost of one New Factory-Loaded 12 Gauge 2.75-inch One-Ounce Shotgun Slug.
$0.738 = Total Material Cost to Reload one Used 12 Gauge 2.75-inch One-Ounce Shotgun Slug.
-$0.107 = Additional Cost to Reload one Used 12 Gauge 2.75-inch One-Ounce Shotgun Slug.
A more detailed cost analysis that supports the above numbers appears at the bottom of this article.
The above data is based on average costs as of June 2009. I did not select the lowest possible cost nor the highest possible cost for each item. Instead I used the average cost.
If a person wanted to prove a specific point then he or she could easily select a set of extreme cost data that would support his or her point of view. For example, a person could compare the cheapest reloading materials to the most expensive factory-loaded ammunition and show a large savings. Or a person could compare the most expensive reloading materials to the cheapest factory-loaded ammunition and show a loss.
Since I am not trying to encourage or discourage reloading I used the average cost numbers for each material to provide a more balanced perspective.
The above data suggests that the average person could save a little money by reloading pistol and rifle ammunition.
On the other hand, the average person would save money by purchasing new factory-loaded shotgun shells instead of reloading empty shotgun shells.
The above conclusion is the same one I reached in 1974 when I first investigated the costs of reloading ammunition. In 1974 I could save money reloading both pistol and rifle ammunition but I would have paid a premium if I had tried to reload shotgun shells.
The above analysis does not take into consideration the cost of the reloading equipment. If a person were to invest $290 in reloading equipment plus $40 in one set of reloading dies in a specific caliber, then that person would need to reload the following number of empty cartridges to recover the cost of the total investment of $330:
5,156 Pistol Cartridges = $330 divided by $0.064 savings per pistol cartridge, or
1,031 Rifle Cartridges = $330 divided by $0.320 savings per rifle cartridge.
This clearly illustrates that a person would need to reload a lot of ammunition in order to break even on his or her investment of $330 in reloading equipment that includes one set of reloading dies. Therefore, the average person would probably be better advised to invest in new factory-loaded ammunition if he or she can still find it available for sale.
However, if factory-loaded ammunition becomes increasingly difficult to find, or if its price continues to increase, then a person might want to consider the reloading option as a viable alternative.
Some additional information about the reloading process is at the following page on my web site. This following web page also discusses the art of bullet casting and how to reduce your lead bullet cost to approximately $0.05 per bullet using clip-on lead wheel weights and ordinary solder that contains tin:
How to Get More Ammunition During Hard Times.
A general discussion on how to improve your marksmanship ability when shooting at paper targets is at the following page on my web site: How to Hit the Target Bull’s-Eye.
The following detailed cost information is provided to support the cost data at the beginning of this article. This cost data is based on the average costs for each material as of June 2009:
Pistol Cartridge (40 S&W 165 Grain FMJ):
$0.030 = Primer Cost ($29.99 per box of 1,000 divided by 1,000).
$0.016 = Average Powder Cost ($15.79 per pound divided by 959 cartridges per pound).
$0.160 = Average Bullet Cost ($15.99 per box of 100 divided by 100).
$0.206 = Total Cost to Reload one Used 40 S&W Pistol Cartridge.
$0.270 = Average Cost of one New Factory-Loaded 40 S&W Cartridge ($13.49 per box divided by 50 rounds per box).
Rifle Cartridge (308 Caliber 165 Grain):
$0.030 = Primer Cost ($29.99 per box of 1,000 divided by 1,000).
$0.120 = Average Powder Cost ($21.99 per pound divided by 184 cartridges per pound).
$0.330 = Average Bullet Cost ($16.49 per box of 50 divided by 50) .
$0.480 = Total Cost to Reload one Used 308 Rifle Cartridge.
$0.800 = Average Cost of one New Factory-Loaded 308 Cartridge ($15.99 per box divided by 20 rounds per box).
Shotgun Shell (12 Gauge 2.75-Inch #7.5 Shot):
$0.039 = Primer Cost ($38.99 per box of 1,000 primers divided by 1,000).
$0.049 = Average Powder Cost ($18.49 per pound divided by 378 Shells per pound).
$0.290 = Average Shot Shell Cost ($50.99 per 11-pound bag divided by 176 Shells per bag).
$0.032 = Average Wad Cost ($7.89 per bag of 250 Wads divided by 250).
$0.410 = Total Cost to Reload one Used 12 Gauge Shotgun Shell.
$0.240 = Average Cost of one New Factory-Loaded 12 Gauge Shotgun Shell ($23.97 per case of 100 shells divided by 100 shells per case).
Shotgun Slug (12 Gauge 2.75-inch One-Ounce Slug):
$0.039 = Primer Cost ($38.99 per box of 1,000 primers divided by 1,000).
$0.107 = Average Powder Cost ($18.79 per pound divided by 175 Shells per pound).
$0.560 = Average One-Ounce Slug Cost ($13.99 per 25 Slugs divided by 25).
$0.032 = Average Wad Cost ($7.89 per bag of 250 Wads divided by 250).
$0.738 = Total Cost to Reload one Used 12 Gauge Shotgun Slug.
$0.631 = Average Cost of one New Factory-Loaded 12 Gauge Shotgun Slug ($9.47 per box of 15 slugs divided by 15 slugs per box).
The cost of the empty metallic brass shell case and the empty plastic shotgun shell is not included in the above figures because those items are being reused and therefore they may be considered a “sunk cost.” A sunk cost is an expense that was incurred in the past and it is not relevant for future purchase decisions. In other words, after you have paid for the factory-loaded ammunition, and you have fired that ammunition, then you have the choice to either: (1) discard your empty shell cases, or (2) re-use those cases. If you decide to re-use your fired shell cases then you do not incur any new additional expense.
Sales tax and/or shipping expenses were not included in the preceding data. These costs would be unique to your geographical location and they would equally impact all the above costs by the same ratio.
The above costs for new factory-loaded ammunition are based on the cost of that ammunition at a Wal-Mart in the southeastern United States as of June 2009.
Mr. Rawles:
I am planning a trip to the Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming area the first week of October. Is there any area to avoid at all costs? Is there any area to “must see”?
We will only have 6.5 days on the ground so must make every minute count. Your knowledge and help is greatly appreciated. Thanks, – Mr. Falsch
JWR Replies: Wow! Covering three states in six days? That will really be pushing it. Given that incredibly tight time constraint, I’d recommend this itinerary:
Fly in to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and rent a four wheel drive SUV. But don’t look around there–it is a resort town. Drive south and start looking in earnest in the Star Valley of Wyoming, then drive down to Montpelier Idaho. Then zoom through (skip-over) most of southern Idaho, and head north on Highway 95. Start looking in earnest again when you get to about 20 miles south of Riggins, Idaho. Then take a half-day side-trip to see any available ranch land up on the “Island” plateau (a must)–that sits west of White Bird, Idaho. Then proceed to Grangeville, and drop down the south fork of the Clearwater river. You’ll pass right by a property that I used to own, near Stites. Spend some time looking around Kooskia (a must), and be sure to take a drive out Clear Creek Road. Next, drive down the Clearwater River Valley to Orofino, and then Lewiston. Then drive up to Moscow and perhaps take a short side-trip to Troy. Proceed north on highway 95 and then take a side trip to St. Maries (a must), then after skipping over the resort town of Coeur d’Alene, check out the area from Athol up through Cocolalla. Then, skipping over the resort town of Sandpoint, check out the vicinity of Bonner’s Ferry and take a half-day side trip up the Moyie River Valley. Crossing into Montana, check out the Yaak River Valley, and then up the Kootenai River Valley to explore the Libby, Montana area. Finally, drive up to the vicinity of Eureka, Montana.
Even with only brief stops to talk to real estate agents to pick up brochures and to buy some Huckleberry ice cream cones, you will be hard pressed to do all that in six days. If you had just a couple of more days available, then I’d advise taking a side trip to the Salmon, Idaho area (especially driving the nearby River of No Return Road, as far as the wide spot in the road called Shoup), and perhaps another side trip Driggs, Idaho.
Places to avoid: Skip by all of the arid regions (wherever you see mostly sagebrush-dotted hillsides), skip all the trendy resort towns, and skip all of the high-elevation towns like McCall!
For much greater detail, see my book “Rawles on Retreats and Relocation“. There, you will find some useful maps and details on the locales that I mentioned. That book ($28) will give you the equivalent of several days of my consulting time, that is normally $100 per hour.
There are also numerous suitable retreat properties listed at our spin-off SurvivalRealty web site. (You will note the Idaho, Wyoming and Montana are featured prominently.)
OBTW, mid-October will be the peak of the fall colors through most of the route that I described. So bring lots of film or a high capacity digital camera memory card!
Also, BTW, October is deer and elk season in all three of those states, so expect to find only skeleton crews manning the real estate offices. It is best to make appointments with agents in advance!
Next Question in Swine Flu: Who Gets Vaccinated?
Swine Flu Epidemic Escalating in Middle East
Fatal Swine Flu Cluster In Buffalo, NY “The above comments describe two students of magnet schools in Buffalo, NY that are a mile apart. Both students were on life support yesterday, and the middle school student (15) died after life support was withdrawn. The elementary school student (9F) remains on life support. The clustering of two critically ill students raises concerns about the emergence of a more lethal strain of Pandemic H1N1. … The 2009 Pandemic is tracking with the 1918 Pandemic, which produce mild disease in the spring, and was more lethal in the fall when previously healthy young adults.”
Swine Flu Could Infect Up to One-Half the Population
From The Daily Bell: David Morgan explains why silver remains the ‘people’s metal’ and why it may be a better investment than gold
Karen H. sent this: Numbers on Welfare See Sharp Increase
DD sent a piece about British ex-pats: Global downturn dashes retirees’ dreams
SurvivalBlog’s Editor at Large Michael Z. Williamson sent a link to this lengthy piece: Still Researching Corruption at The Treasury
Items from The Economatrix:
US Says Bonds Seized In Italy Are “Clearly Fake”
Bearer Bonds Saga: Resolution?
Employers Are Undermining The Economic Stimulus Plan “Reports are starting to appear suggesting that laid-off or underemployed Americans, and the long-term unemployed, are losing patience with the Obama administration’s and Congress’ economic stimulus plan, which thus far has not done anything to arrest the growth of unemployment, now at close to 20 percent of the US workforce, at least as unemployment used to honestly be counted in the 1970s and early 1980s.”
Marty Weiss: California Collapsing “State officials continue to insist that a state default is unthinkable … much like GM executives said their bankruptcy could never happen. In my view, there is a very high probability that California will default. It’s obvious its debt merits a junk bond rating from every Wall Street rating agency. And it’s equally obvious that the ratings agencies are artificially inflating the rating, stalling downgrades, and grossly understating the risk to investors.”
The Recession Tracks The Great Depression
Is American Indebtedness Worse Than Reported?
A Credit Squeeze For Small Business Owners
The Danger of Unemployment
Stocks End Day (Monday) With Worst Losses in Two Months “Dim World Bank forecast for global economy helps sink markets.”
Employers Cutting Back on 401(k) Plans
Mystery Still Surrounds The Ponte Chiasso Affair