Letter Re: Infoworld’s Take on IT Doomsday Scenarios

James,

The magazine Infoworld is a fairly trusted source in the information technology (IT) field. They recently posted an article titled, “Tech apocalypse: Five doomsday scenarios for IT”.

Here is a quote:

“What could happen [from a wide scale EMP attack]: Workstations? Dead. Data centers? Gone. Cell phones might still work, but the cell towers probably won’t, rendering them useless. Your car won’t start. A large enough attack will also shut down automated controls at power substations, leaving everyone in the dark. Think pre-industrial revolution days. In our scenario the New York Stock Exchange shuts down, causing shock waves to reverberate throughout worldwide markets.”

That is not bad for a mainstream IT magazine, though in this scenario they downplay the aftermath. in my opinion. However, they call it “higher than you might think” when talking about chances of this happening.

Their description of the effects of a massive coronal ejection (their last scenario) is pretty good, with a prediction of a recovery time of 4 to 10 years, if at all. – MP



Letter Re: Another Experience with Stockpiling Nickels

Dear Mr. Rawles,

I thought I would drop you a note on my experiences in attempting to collect a significant volume of nickels. After seeing the Coinflation.com site and some of your articles and hearing about the changes being made by the US government in what materials are allowed to be used to make nickels, I decided to take your advice and start collecting. I decided to obtain $1,000 worth to start with, so I went to my local credit union and walked up to the teller and asked what their policy was on obtaining large volumes of coins. She said that they have to pay for shipping of coins and that they order coins twice per week. They also ship their bulk coins that they collect in the coin counter they provide for their members to a company that counts and rolls and sells the coins back. She described the coin service they use. So I asked if they had any coins that they were going to have to pay to ship to the coin processing company that I could buy at face value so they could save money on the processing fee. She was happy to sell me a $200 bag of nickels, unrolled and only counted by their coin counting machine. I accepted that, bought the nickels and took them home. 4,000 nickels in one bag is not lite but it looked worse than it was for carrying.

I thought this solution seemed easy enough so I started dropping in at the credit union once or twice per week. At first they said they didn’t have any bags of nickels for me to buy and then after about two weeks they told me they weren’t allowed to sell me bulk nickels anymore and that their manager told them it was not allowed. I found this to be a little annoying, after all I was trying to help them to save processing fees by buying the nickels in a $200 bag so they didn’t have to pay the shipping for the nickels. I considered my options at this point. I wanted to find the least painful way to get this situation resolved so I thought I would call up the Vice President of the branches in the area and complain. I realized this was excessive and thought I would try calling up the manager of the branch first. Maybe he was a reasonable man. I was disappointed to hear him tell me they had recently had a meeting and established new rules for coin purchasing. The rules outlined that each non-commercial member was only allowed to purchase $20 to $30 worth at a time on a basis of once or twice per week. I explained that I only needed $800 worth and that if I buy $30 worth twice per week it would take me a little over one year to obtain my goal of $800 more worth of nickels. I then stated that this was really over burdensome. He countered that he anything more would cost them too much money. He asked when I would be bringing back the nickels and putting them through the counting machine in the lobby. Then he explained that they have been having problems with some of their members buying large volumes of nickels, sorting them and returning the bulk of all the low value coins while keeping all the coins that sell on eBay to collectors. I responded by promising not to bring back any nickels and that I simply wanted to store them. I would only bring them back if I became unemployed and foreclosed on my house and desperate to spend the money. He still resisted and told me that this was their policy and he had to follow the rules as they were given by the senior management of the Credit Union. I persisted and asked if he would please request an exception to the rules this one time so that I could obtain $800 worth of nickels and that I would be willing to pay a small fee to obtain them if needed. After waiting about a week he called me up and told me they were willing to grant my exception to the rules if I paid a one time $25 fee and promised not to bring them back and put them in his counting machine. I did some quick calculations and decided this was a reasonable solution and accepted. We setup a schedule and they have been calling me twice a week to pick either 1 $100 box or 2 $100 boxes for a total of $300 worth per week. I now have $600 worth of nickels in my safe and am on track to have my goal reached within a little over one week.

Thanks for all your help and advice and hard work on your blog. – Max



Economics and Investing:

G.G. liked this piece at The Daily Beast: America’s Debt Gets Scary

Greg C. suggested this blog article that has some serious implications: The Most Important Story that the MSM, Fox News, Glenn beck, and Others Will Not Cover.

Flavio sent this linkio: Retail Sales Fall.

Here is a real Economic Indicator: Box makers wait for signal of economic growth (Thanks to Mike A. in Ohio for the link.)

Items from The Economatrix:

Stocks Fall on Worries Regarding Greek Debt Return

The Four Cities that Best Weathered the Recession (As if the “recession” were in the past?)

Germany and France Split Over Solution to Greek Debt Problem

When Credit Falls and Equities Rise, Stock Investors Beware



Odds ‘n Sods:

More than 20 SurvivalBlog readers forwarded the link to a New York Times article on potential cyber attacks on the US power grid: Academic Paper in China Sets Off Alarms in U.S. Meanwhile, we read: Electricity disruptions a growing threat. (Thanks to Brian B. for the latter link.)

   o o o

Observations from the mainstream media on societal decline and collapse: In the Soviet suburbs of Hell and the blasted avenues of Mogadishu, I saw what our society could become.

   o o o

Smoky the Bear Big Brother: US Forest Service admits putting surveillance cameras on public lands. (A hat tip to Chad S. for the link.)



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"So this is how liberty dies: with thunderous applause." – Natalie Portman as Padmé Amidala, Star Wars: Episode III, Revenge of the Sith (Screenplay by George Lucas)



Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 27 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Luger, 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $249 value.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 27 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Building Your Kits for Survival, by Jeff M.

There are many different ways to go about preparing for tomorrow. One method that has really worked out well for me so far is kit building. Kits focus your attention on one specific area at a time, and bring into focus the strengths and weaknesses in your planning. There is something of a natural progression to it; you can start small and work up to bigger and better as you develop the means and know how.
This is intended as an overview of the concept; details for specific kit building can be found all all over the web.

EDC (Every Day Carry)
The Everyday Carry (EDC) is a “kit” that you keep on your person at all times. What it consists of is entirely up to you, and based on your personal needs. Universal items (Prep minded individuals or not) are personal identification, credit cards, cash, cell phone, keys, medications. More specialized items are knives and multi-tools, personal protection, keychain based tools, fire making devices, flash drives with important personal info. My EDC is split between my key chain and my wallet, is not cumbersome in the least and I am extremely happy with the system. For your EDC balance the things you would never, ever, want to be without, under any circumstances; with what is practical to carry. I just won’t be one of those guys who carries a purse.

PSK (Personal Survival Kit)
The Personal Survival Kit (PSK) is meant to be a small supply of materials to help you survive a few days if stranded or separated from a safe place. It does not have to be expensive, large or all inclusive. This is an area to expand on your EDC and give yourself a fighting chance. The survival basics must be addressed here: Shelter, Fire, Water, Food Gathering, Identification, Navigation, Signaling for help. My kit fits into an old military surplus three-magazine ALICE Pouch, and probably cost around $40 to build. It goes with me on hunting, fishing, hiking and off road trips.

24-Hour Kit (GHB)
The Get Home Bag fills the gap between PSK and the fairly large 72-Hour Kit. A typical School sized backpack will fill the bill nicely. Include Food and Water, Clothing, a Blanket, a Tarp, Personal Hygiene products. It may be more or less than 24 hours; build yours around the maximum timeframe it may take you to get home from the farthest you usually travel from home. For most of us, this kit is probably best left in your vehicle, and need not be overly expensive. In fact, many items can be found or re-purposed for next to nothing.

Car Kit
The Car Kit may be the most overlooked, yet useful, assemblage of goods you can put together. Something as simple as a flat tire can leave you stranded literally anywhere. Items such as Jumper Cables, Fix-a-Flat, Air Compressor, Flashlight, Fire Extinguisher, Water/Coolant, Oil and tools can be stored in a toolbox or, as in my case, an old gym bag.

72-Hour Kit (Bug Out Bag)
“They” say three days is about how long a person can expect to wait for rescue, or help to arrive after a natural disaster. It would make sense to build a semi-comprehensive kit to last a person (or family) 72 hours. It would make even more sense for this kit to be portable, in case evacuation in called for. This is where the concept of a Bug Out Bag comes in. Whether you have a place to “bug out” to yet or not, a good sized backpack prepared to support you and your family for 3 days is a good idea. The size of this kit will allow you to include bigger and better items like sleeping bags, cookware, food and water. A weapon and ammo should be considered. One pack per family member is a good idea. Don’t forget to pack comfort items like sweets and stuffed animals, especially if you have little ones! While any old backpack will do, military surplus Alice and MOLLE packs will probably hold up better and are very affordable.

First Aid Kits

Store bought First Aid Kits can be good, but are rarely comprehensive and never tailored to individuals. A good plan is to buy a large kit and then add to it with medications and other items where lacking. First Aid Kits should be in each vehicle and Pack/Kit you have, as well as the home.

Disaster/Earthquake Kit
We live in earthquake country, and so have an “Earthquake Kit”. For us it’s a plastic tub in a closet with food, water, radio, flashlights, blankets and clothes. It should be enough to last you a few weeks if supply routes are cut off, and you want to work up to a two month store as a benchmark.

Future Trade Goods
It might not be a bad idea to begin storing up what may be “Future Trade Goods”. That may be .22 caliber and other common ammo, tobacco, alcohol, spices, seeds, bleach, canned goods. Things that are fairly cheap and easy to find, but could become very valuable when unavailable. Somehow, I don’t think the average man is going to be all that interested in a sack of old Nickels, he wants something he can use.

These are just a few examples of some of the kits commonly assembled. You can create sub-kits for more specific tasks such as Water Purification, Food Gathering or Self Defense, it’s the concept and practicality that I like. It helps you look at your preps in detail and iron out the problems. You get to know each and every component and how to use each of them. The end product is a good modular system you can build on and modify as needed, and the peace of mind that you are making progress and prepared for whatever may come your way tomorrow.



Letter Re: Vehicle Shutdown Via Remote Control–No Longer Just a Remote Possibility

Dear JWR:
I hope that you are well. I thought that the following news report may be of interest to your blog. Not to get too “tinfoil-hat” here, but many of your readers may not appreciate the vulnerabilities their vehicles’ computers expose them to. See: Hacker Disables More Than 100 Cars Remotely. The article begins:

“More than 100 drivers in Austin, Texas found their cars disabled or the horns honking out of control, after an intruder ran amok in a web-based vehicle-immobilization system normally used to get the attention of consumers delinquent in their auto payments.”

In this case the compromised system was an after-market product, but in a recent OnStar commercial GM actually brags about being able to remotely shut down a running vehicle [with their “Stolen Vehicle Slowdown” feature on “select 2009 and later models”.]

Increasingly new vehicles are being equipped with these systems (e.g. GM’s OnStar and Ford’s Sync) as they are built. These systems are capable of providing location using GPS, two-way communication via the audio system (possible covert monitoring as well?), are capable of arming or disarming security system, locking and unlocking of doors, and even starting and shutting down the engine. Is that really a good idea? – L.S.C.



Letter Re: Package Delivery OPSEC

Hi Jim,

I am constantly making efforts to prepare for an uncertain future and I thought I was practicing good OPSEC. I do not discuss my efforts except with fellow preppers and my wife, I do not have anything outside my house that says “prepared”, and I generally stay low profile.

One of my friends just decided to make a purchase of 50 food grade buckets with me so we could share the shipping charges. I was shocked when one of my neighbors just called me to say, “Scott: What the heck are you preparing for?”

I raced home to discover five large boxes sitting in front of my house with “Emergency Essentials, Helping People Prepare” printed on every side on the boxes in a font that makes the words run from one end to the other. This is anything but low profile. Please pass this knowledge on to others on your blog. Let my mistake be a lesson to others. When ordering from unknown vendors, specify the packaging must be plain with no markings. This slip up on my part may have put my family at risk in the future. Having a box at your front door that says “DELL” is one thing, having a box that says “I am preparing with lots of food inside” is completely different! Best Regards, – Scott in California

JWR Replies: Most preparedness products vendors are happy to either use unmarked boxes, or assemble their logo boxes inside out. Be sure to ask for the “plain brown envelope” treatment.



Economics and Investing:

Veteran analyst Jim Rogers talks about the world’s financial woe: Another recession ahead. It was nice of him to use the more kind term for it.

From Chad S.: Food prices push Indian inflation up to 9.9 percent

Also from Chad: China’s Wen pushes back against yuan rise calls. This quote from the article doesn’t bode well: “We are very concerned about the lack of stability in the U.S. dollar. If I said I was worried last year, I must say I am still worried this year.”

G.G. liked this commentary from Richard Daughty (aka The Mogambo Guru): US Economic Outlook: Default, Hyperinflation or Both

Items from The Economatrix:

Pain in the Tank: Gas Prices Highest Since 2008

“Wall Street” Sequel an Omen of US Collapse

To Fill Budget Gaps, “Stealth” Taxes are Creeping Up

Debt Doom (The Mogambo Guru)

Strategic Defaults are Soaring in California, and Now they Might Really Explode



Odds ‘n Sods:

Rufus sent us this: San Diego Searches For Ways To Deal With Hoarders. No, not the sort of” hoarders” we usually think of, but just leave it to the vagaries of government to someday soon misapply such laws to to people that prudently build up larders.

   o o o

Rourke sent us this YouTube music clip: Meet You At Menards – Original Apocalyptic Ukulele Song. Rourke described it as “So cheesy that it’s actually funny.”

   o o o

Rebellion in America heats up as fifth state exempts guns. We also read in The New York Times: States’ Rights Is Rallying Cry for Lawmakers. (A hat tip to Brian B. for the links.)

   o o o

News from Idaho and South Carolina: Idaho’s plan to downgrade the dollar.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“And, behold, I [am] with thee, and will keep thee in all [places] whither thou goest, and will bring thee again into this land; for I will not leave thee, until I have done [that] which I have spoken to thee of.” – Genesis 28:15 (KJV)



Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 27 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Luger, 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $249 value.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 27 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Survival Mindset: Being Ready for a Violent Encounter, by AK in Tulsa

Most of us who spend any time at all thinking about “Survival” or “Preparedness” have probably spent some of that time considering the subject of Self Defense. If you’ve spent enough time thinking about it, you’ve probably spent more than time on the subject. Like many of your survival-minded brothers and sisters, you’ve likely spent some of your hard earned dollars on a weapon or two. Perhaps you have a small arsenal at home. Owning a weapon may save your life but not if it’s not with you when you need it or if you’re not prepared to use it.

As a law enforcement officer in a fairly large Midwest town, I’ve seen both the very prepared and the completely unprepared come out on both the winning and losing ends of violent encounters. I’ve seen a man beaten half to death by an unarmed intruder in his living room when he had a baseball bat sitting in the corner behind the door. It wasn’t a thought in his mind. I’ve seen the smelly result of a wood-be attacker picking the wrong apartment to break into and finding a young lady in the bathroom with a disposable cigarette lighter and a can of hair spray. She didn’t just have them; she knew how to use them.

In a violent encounter, having the right tools won’t do you a bit of good if you don’t know how to use them. If you have the correct mindset, even the wrong tools will often make do.

A cop carries a gun on his hip at work every day. Most people who work outdoors or in warehouses carry knives or box cutters. You’re average office worker or department store clerk doesn’t carry a gun or a knife. Many people don’t carry guns or knives. In uniform I may have two or three of each at any time. For those of you who typically don’t carry anything that is traditionally thought of as a weapon, it may be a consideration that you wish to make. If you choose to walk around unarmed, that’s okay, as long as you’re prepared to protect yourself.

Violence can strike at any moment. In my town, there was a somewhat recent incident where a mother took her two teenage daughters to tan at a tanning salon. While they were tanning inside, she and her infant and her toddler were waiting in the family van outside. While waiting outside, a man approached the van and physically made his way into the van. He left the mother and took her children. Due to some sensitive subject matter, I won’t discuss the incident further, except to say that if the mother had been armed or at least considered the weapons at her disposal, the story may have had a much happier ending. What is the most powerful personally operated weapon most of us have at our disposal and that this mother had that day?

What has four tires, weighs 2,000+ pounds and can be easily aimed at an attacker? If you haven’t figured it out yet, it’s your vehicle. Not only can a vehicle act as a shield or a shelter, it can make a fine impact weapon. Find yourself in a riot and you know that stopping means you’re not making it out alive or at best seriously injured? I understand that there are legal ramifications to doing what I am about to express but we’re talking about living and dying here. If it comes to me getting my family home safely or letting someone have their way with my wife and daughter while I’m lying unconscious in my own blood, I’m going to apply enough gas to keep moving quickly, tell my family to get as low as possible and I’m moving forward. Should rioters or attackers choose to stay in my path, they will have made the wrong choice.

Survival is about choosing to survive and carrying out whatever actions are necessary to complete the task. I once had an instructor who would say “Be polite and professional and have a plan to kill everyone you meet.” Does that sound harsh? Absolutely it does but to some degree, this is the way that people must live if they wish to continue to stay on the top side of the grass. Many violent crimes begin with some thug putting a smile on his face and asking for directions or some unsuspecting parent answering a knock at the door. Bad things don’t just happen when you accidentally drive through the rough neighborhood or when you’re walking to your car after work one night. They happen when you least expect them. You’re sitting in church and some lunatic walks through the door with a 12 gauge and starts mowing down the flock. You’re standing in line at the local convenience store and suddenly you realize the guy in front of you is putting on a ski mask or has just pulled a revolver from his pocket.

Mental preparation is important to survival. You have to have an acute awareness of your surroundings. You have to pay attention to the people around you at all times. You absolutely must have your eyes open to what is going on around you. I cannot count the number of times I’ve worked a robbery that took place in a public place with several witnesses who should be able to give an accurate description of the suspect and then find out that half of them didn’t even realize the store was being robbed until after the robber was gone. Instead of walking around like a sheep with your head down, grazing, you’ve got to keep your head up and your eyes moving. Be the sheep dog, not the sheep. You need to notice when the guy walks into the gas station with his hood and sunglasses on. You must see the guy approaching you in the parking lot after work. You can’t be talking to the other soccer moms when that weirdo is approaching your child on the other side of the playground. You have got to have situational awareness. There are times when you can’t prevent a situation from unfolding but if you are aware, you can at the very least try to protect yourself or your loved ones. The only appropriate action may be to run or hide or dial 9-1-1 on your cell phone. You may find it appropriate to draw your .40 S&W from your purse and create a cloud of pink mist where some bad guy’s head used to be.

Go back to the office worker. We’ll use Jane as an example. Jane works in a call center as a customer service representative. She has never fired a gun. The only knives she owns are for use in the kitchen and they don’t leave the kitchen. She spends 40+ hours per week sitting in a cubicle talking on the phone. One night Jane is stuck at work late on a long call. She gets off the phone finally, finding that she’s the only person left in the office except the creepy manager that always sniffs her hair when he walks by. Jane is grabbing her purse and keys when she sees him come around the corner and he has a slightly creepier look than normal. She suddenly feels very frightened. What does Jane have to defend herself with? Yes, pens and pencils make pretty good stabbing weapons if you’re strong enough to use them. I suppose you could try to strangle someone with your mouse cable. No, I don’t think the stress ball would do much to slow down a wood-be attacker. How about a stapler? The common desk stapler will open up and double in length in order to be refilled. Most people never look at their stapler as an impact weapon but the one on my desk weighs almost two pounds, is made mostly of steel and swung at someone’s head could do some serious damage, if not dispatch them permanently. Those scissors that she usually only uses to make paper dolls when calls are slow, they are an edged weapon and when jabbed into someone’s eye are pretty effective. Suppose creepy manager guy is a rapist and he’s been waiting for this opportunity to get Jane alone. Jane needs to be aware of the possible weapons at hand. Jane needs to be aware of the exits in the building. Jane needs to know where the fire-alarms are (fire alarms are just as good as calling 9-1-1, they bring firemen and firemen bring big muscles and axes, firemen can be just as effective as cops).

As far as having “a plan to kill everyone you meet.” I think the point is being ready for whatever may happen and being ready for whoever may bring it to you. There are people in the world with nothing but evil in their hearts. Those of us who are willing to not be sheep must be willing to stand up to these wolves and must be ready to do so at a moment’s notice. As far as dealing with the District Attorney or cops after you’ve beaten a burglar’s brain out with the toilet seat, there is an old saying; “I’d rather be judged by twelve than carried by six.” Living is priority number one. I’ll worry about the details later.

Now, if all of this sounds a bit too extreme for you, you probably haven’t ever had a gun pointed at you or had someone trying to take your head off with their bare hands. I have and I’ve talked to many people who have. I’ve seen what happens when people are unprepared physically or emotionally for violence. Violence is often unprovoked. Bad guys are like wolves. They take the weak sheep from the heard. The ones who aren’t paying attention when they sneak up, the ones who are still eating after the others have already run off, those are their prey. If you are the sheep dog, you smell the wolf before he ever gets close and he doesn’t approach you because of your strong, confident demeanor. If he is foolish enough to approach you, he gets the business end of a stapler stuck in his skull. Be aware and be safe.



Three Letters Re: Now You See It, Now You Don’t — The Value of Concealment

Mr. Rawles,
I read Joe M.’s article with great interest. The contributors to your site always seem to have creative ideas. I have often thought of ways to conceal a passageway, escape route or just a safe / storage room.

Here are four links to companies that offer hidden doors or panels.

Thanks again for all you do. – John G.

James,
Two very good books contain a wealth of hints on constructing and concealing hidden compartments and entrances, covering evidence of work you want to keep concealed, and devising ways to guard against tampering:

The Great Escape, by Paul Brickhill (the book, not the movie [which is much more inspirational rather that instructive.])

Escape from Colditz, by P. R. Reid

Additionally, they’re great true stories of defiance, resistance, and survival. – PJJ

 

Sir:
Referring to the article where the writer suggested magnetic locks. Most people do not know of Assa Abloy [of Finland]. I’m not even sure their product is available in the U.S. [Many of] their padlocks are just about un-pickable.

Main Products Page

Padlocks Page

Padlocks Brochure PDF

Regards, – Kevin S.