Three Rules for Living Through the Second Depression, by Chaz Valenza

I believe we are on the precipice of the Second Depression. Though President Obama is working valiantly to turn the country’s financial ship, it appears to me that the lack of a genuine
economic engine to create sufficient, sustaining, value-adding jobs will come too late. What should the common man do?

Much of the advice on how to live through such hard times is often too specific, not specific enough or draconian. How many of us are ready or should even consider survivalist methods? Who among us can afford to completely restructure their finances on a moment’s notice? Which of us can effectively plan now for the unforeseen severity we may or may not face?

Often to my amusement, I have found that everything in life can be boiled down to Three Rules that pretty much envelop the whole enchilada. I call these simple statements of essential truth a “Three Rules” poem. They can be fun, amusing, thoughtful, whimsical, et cetera. This one, presented for your approval and commentary, is dead serious.

Properly deduced, by sorting through the minutiae to find the lowest common denominator, a given Three Rules won’t tell you exactly what to do, but they should provide the framework for recognizing actions to a successful conclusion.

Here are mine:

Three Rules for Living through the Second Depression

1. Escape and avoid entanglements with scams and the authorities.

2. Stick together to defend each others right to food and shelter.

3. Make yourself useful.

Allow me to elucidate on each of the above.

Escape and avoid entanglements with scams and the authorities.

Debatable as it may seem now, this rule will become imperative. As the situation grows grimmer, more and more people and organization will devise ever more devious ways to steal the resources they want from those that can be conned or exploited.

As we have seen, much of what is called our financial system is nothing more than a cabal of greed that has worked diligently to sanction rules that effectively fleeced workers of their deserved earnings.

Look at any list of what to do during a financial crisis and you will find suggestions as to the preservation of your hard earned capital, should you have any, or a suggestion that you get out of debt. Good ideas, but they do not go far enough or wide enough to give anyone practical guidance and doable tasks.

First, let’s go wide. This rule includes all powerful or legally protected organizations that promise more than they know they can ever deliver. Here are examples that deserve skeptical analysis: unsecured debt of all kinds, especially credit cards with numerous fees, charges, penalties and usury interest rates; work at home scams; costly education with no job certainty; fortune tellers and spiritualists of all varieties; full commission sales positions with no base salary; internet scams; credit counseling; insurance; job counselors, resume services and business consultants; barter brokers; pyramid schemes and other versions of musical chairs; speed, DWI and other police traps to snare high fines and surcharges; et cetera.

If you haven’t already noticed, the police are out in force and quick to pull the ticket book trigger. Here in New Jersey, though the civil and criminal courts were subject to cost-cutting furlough days, no such thing happened in the money making municipal courts. Basically, now is not the time to get caught being late with payments or cheating on taxes, nor the moment to get on any bureaucrat’s building code violations clipboard. As the tax & budget shortfalls grow, expect to be hunted down for the most insignificant violation of any law, code or tax regulation.

The authorities will continue to work diligently to create money-raising traps disguised as public service. Be careful out there! That you’ve done nothing wrong, nor hurt anyone, may not matter. If caught in any such snare, don’t exacerbate the situation, minimize the damage.

Keep you relations with the government limited to only what it can do for you and beware that even these “community chest” transactions may include trade-offs, expressed, implied or otherwise that may work against you.

Going as far as possible, if you lose you job or you’ve been purchasing necessities on your credit cards, or you can’t afford the medicine or medical care you need or you’re about to lose you home or car, definitely consider escaping the entanglement and life sucking burden of debt. Are you feeling guilty about the option of filing for protection from your creditors? Consider this, you didn’t’t make the rules, but you have to live by them. Bankruptcy is in the rule book, use any and all rules to your advantage without any qualms.

Stick together to defend each others right to food and shelter
.

All of the accounts of the Great Depression remind us of how important organizing will be to survival in the Second Depression.

Face facts, it’s good to be member of any club that supports you in living a decent life.

I am no fan of organized religion, and I do not advocate its proliferation, but I must recognize its one aspect of value to the individual participant: community. Remember, you don’t have to believe in Santa to have friends. Any group will do, especially family. Have a pact to house each other if worst comes to worst.

In Florida, Max Rameau is housing the homeless in foreclosed property. He considers his work both civil disobedience and the morally proper response to human necessity. In desperate times, we will all do what we must. We must all protect the most basic human right to food and shelter for each other.

Do what they did during the Great Depression, support your neighbor and don’t let them be evicted. Homelessness is a nightmare that can bring the strongest of us to our knees. The right response is not to let it happen to our friends, family and neighbors.

Act locally to secure food resources to your geographic community, both near and wide. Industrial agriculture, the menace that brought you cheap, unhealthy and non-nutritious food, will starve you when you cannot pay the price. Recognize that hunger is a political/financial issue; it has nothing to do with a lack of food in the world. This will not change during the Second Depression.

During the Great Depression, there was abundant food, much of it warehoused and going to waste as scare jobs meant scare money and starving people. Monsanto, ConAgra,
Nestle and ADM are not going to feed you if you can’t pay; neither are McDonalds, Burger King, Fridays, Chili’s or the rest of the chain palletized food venues.

Support your local farms and fisheries as much as possible. Not only is that where your food will be grown, it’s where the local jobs will take root. Farmer’s markets, chef-owned and independent restaurants, the locally owned quality supermarket may be a little more expensive, but chances are they offer real value and will be there to underpin the your local community when times get tough.

Make yourself useful.

You can start right now. Play “what if” with yourself and do a little mental planning. What if, I can’t afford the rent? Make the call to friends and family so you will know where you can go and for how long. Figure out your finances now. Do what makes sense now in light of what is probably going to happen in the future.

If you have a job, keep it. If you hate your job, know the risks before you make a move. If you have savings, secure it. If you have debt, do what must be done to get rid of it. Sooner is better than too late.

If the worst happens and you’re out of work this is the rule to heed. Figure out what you can do. They’ll be plenty to do to help others and help you and yours.

As with food, jobs are going to become an important local resource. Local business are not going to move, but the may fail, without your support during the Second Depression. Consider local options for everything you buy now. Tech support and computer repair: the local geek shop or a Dell extended warranty? Banking: Citibank or the local credit union that will still FDIC secures your deposits? Customer service and support: deal with the person in Bangalore or request for a representative in the United States? It goes on and on: The local organic farm or Perdue? Quality clothes made in the USA or Wal-Mart’s Chinese imports? The big box home center or the local hardware store that is not just luring you in to sell you patio furniture? We’ve made too many poor choices in all these respects over the last three decades. Let’s think local and long term starting now.

Fix it. Paint it. Repair it. Weed it by hand instead of buying Round-up. Collect rain water for your garden. Basically, when your money is in short supply and your time is long, use your time and don’t spend the money.

Voting early and often may be out of the question, but if you got the time why not make yourself useful and give your elected representatives an earful. Now is the time to make your voice heard as our timid politicians tip-toe around and hope for the best.

In conclusion:

Apply these rules starting now to your particular situation, needs and environs. We can get through this if we start thinking and acting more deliberately and cut out those institutions that only want our money and have never cared a whit about us.

JWR Adds: Before you send me a Nastygram about Mr. Valenza’s article, please re-read my introductory note, above.



Letter Re: GPS for Day-to-Day Use and Survival

Hi Jim,

I enjoyed that excellent GPS article [by Mike S., “GPS for Day-to-Day Use and Survival”.] It squares well with my personal experience.

GPS on-board mapping has many errors. Seems worse in the hinterlands. Also pretty bad where new construction is concerned. I was amused while driving in MA that for about a half mile my GPS unit thought I was driving down railroad tracks.

While snowshoeing with friends, my buddy had to demonstrate the GPS on his iPhone. All it showed was a dot in the middle of a blank screen. We were beyond the reach of cell phone towers and his phone could not access a map. We had a good laugh about it, but it’s a good thing we knew our way through other means.

Many people who totally rely on a GPS for driving seem to lose their innate sense of direction. I asked a cousin for directions to a place and he said. “Huh . . . I’ve been there a hundred times but just follow the GPS directions. I really couldn’t find my way there without it.”

I do enjoy having GPS in my car. It came in handy when my speedometer cable broke and I could get my mph off of the unit.

Just be aware of its limits and don’t forget your other navigation skills. – Raymond



Influenza Pandemic Update:

LJ in England sent us this: Swine flu deaths in Britain soar to 29 as 12 die in four days

Andrew in England sent this from Yahoo UK: Pandemic threat ‘worse than terror’

From Cheryl: Great Pandemic Flu of 2009 is Coming and No One Can Stop It! Cheryl’s comment: “This is a 2006 novel, Another Place to Die by Sam North, called a blueprint for survival tips for the coming pandemic. Worth checking out. It might deserve a place next to Patriots.”

SR recommended this: Fight for swine flu vaccine could get ugly



Economics and Investing:

Reader IJS flagged this: Ron Paul: Obama Will ‘Destroy the Dollar’

Jim Sinclair (of JS Mineset) mentioned this chart posted at Contrary Investor, showing levels of derivatives exposure. Jim Sinclair raises and interesting question: Where does Goldman Sachs actually have the majority of their derivatives plays? And this chart is also illuminating. In the same piece, Sinclair included a link to this: Mobius Says Derivatives, Stimulus to Spark New Crisis. I have been warning folks for years that the derivatives market is like a ticking time bomb! A full-scale derivatives implosion could make the current economic crisis seem trivial, by comparison!

Buckle up! FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair is predicting that the bank failure rate will increase tenfold. (A hat tip to IJS for the link.)

Greg C. spotted this: California tax officials: Legal pot would rake in $1.4 Billion. Greg’s comment: “Well they ended prohibition during the depression so they could collect a new source of tax revenue. I guess we should’t be surprised by this new development.”

The latest over at the Dr. Housing Bubble blog: Foreclosure Nation: Highest Foreclosure Quarter in History.

No Great Surprise Department: Foreign demand for US financial assets down in May. [JWR Adds: “First prize for our contestants is a suitcase full of US Treasury Bonds. Second prize is two suitcases full of US Treasury Bonds.”]

Items from The Economatrix:

Rising Unemployment Accelerates Foreclosures Crisis

CIT Group, Inc. Won’t Get Bailout, Raising Bankruptcy Prospect Shares tumbled 70% Thursday. “It is unclear how a bankruptcy filing by a company that lends to thousands of small and mid-size businesses would affect shaky financial markets hobbled by an economy in recession and bleeding hundreds of thousands of jobs a month. Small businesses are seen as keys to economic recovery.”

Minimum Thought (The Mogambo Guru)

Map: Broad Unemployment Across the Country

Stocks Make Push at End to Keep Rally Alive Is this more manipulation?

World Bank Warns of Deflation Spiral

House Bill to Hit Millionaires with 5.4% Surtax More BHO “share the wealth” philosophy, in action.

Republicans Criticize Agency for Consumers “Republican Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee called the proposal “an example of this administration being Big Brother” and “a tremendous overreach” that would limit what companies could sell and consumers could buy.”

CalPers Sues Rating Agency Over Losses
“Calpers, the biggest U.S. public pension fund, has sued the three largest credit rating agencies for giving perfect grades to securities that later suffered huge subprime mortgage losses. The California Public Employees’ Retirement System said in a lawsuit filed last week in California Superior Court in San Francisco that it might lose more than $1 billion from structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, that received top grades from Moody’s Investors Service Inc, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Inc.”



Odds ‘n Sods:

Some unexpected fallout from the Kahre American Eagles legal tender case: U.S. Attorney Wants Newspaper to Name Names. (Thanks to Chad in Missouri for the link.)

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F.G. mentioned this guaranteed-to-choke-you-up commercial from Ford.

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Reader KAF brought this piece in IBD to my attention: It’s Not An Option; Congress: It didn’t take long to run into an “uh-oh” moment when reading the House’s “health care for all Americans” bill. Right there on Page 16 is a provision making individual private medical insurance illegal. Meanwhile we read: Congressional Budget Director Warns Health Care Bills Will Raise Costs

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Greg C. spotted an article describing the threat spiral escalations in South Africa: ATMs to Dispense Pepper Spray to Robbers





Letter Re: Recommendations on Discreet Self Defense Weapons and Training

Mr. Rawles:
I am at a disadvantage to your American readers. I live in a suburb of London, and travel by train to work each day. Street crime is now out of control in some neighbourhoods, but I cannot carry a weapon. I must say that I’m envious of Americans that can carry concealed pistols and revolvers. Here, I cannot even carry a pocket knife. Are martial arts effective, and if they indeed are, then which one will be most effective with not too much time for training? What do you suggest? Thanking You in Advance, – G.H. in England

JWR Replies: I wrote the following for SurvivalBlog back in 2006. I’m re-posting it, along with an update, for the benefit of the many readers that have come on board more recently:

I highly recommend training to use a cane, walking stick, or a traditional full-length umbrella. This is particularly important for our readers like you that live in gun-unfriendly nations. Ditto for our readers that live in states like California, New York, and New Jersey where is is very difficult for mere mortals to get a carrying concealed weapon (CCW) permit. And even if you are a concealed firearms permit holder, you should learn these valuable skills. Why? You never know when circumstances might dictate that you cannot carry a pistol. (For example, when traveling to a state where your CCW permit is not valid, or when traveling overseas.)

Here is a forward from firearms instructor John Farnam, by way of SurvivalBlog reader Grampa Redd:

“I attended a stick/cane-fighting seminar yesterday, instructed by Peter Donello of Canemasters. Canemasters manufacturers high-quality canes and walking sticks and provides training in their use. However, I used my Cold Steel City Stick, as did several other students.

I was astonished at the number of effective moves available to the cane/stick fighter, certainly more than I can remember! Peter’s knowledge is vast, and I did my best to catalog the few that I thought were most effective and easiest to learn. Range is the big advantage that canes have over blades and other impact weapons.

Striking and jabbing are still the premiere moves, easily done with nearly any style of cane. Some follow-up moves and holds and more comfortably accomplished with a hooked cane than with a straight stick, but either style works just fine. The real question is: What can I have with me most often that attracts the least attention?

This four-hour clinic is something I recommend to everyone. The cane is a wonderful, low-profile, yet extremely effective fighting tool that most people can fit into their lives with a minimum of lifestyle disruption. Most casual observers don’t even notice when you have one with you and certainly don’t believe them to represent a threat. Time well spent!”

As for walking stick designs: From what I have heard and observed here in the U.S., if you are well dressed and groomed, then law enforcement officers in most jurisdictions will hardly give you a second glance if you are carrying a walking stick. But if you are shabby looking and perceived as “riffraff”, then expect to get plenty of grief. Canes, especially aluminum ones those that look like true walking aids, are far less likely to attract suspicion than walking sticks. I have an acquaintance who lives in Oakland, California who carries a dull silver aluminum cane with a big rubber tip. This cane looks very unobtrusive if not downright innocuous. It is not until you pick it up that you realize that it has been retrofitted with a 1/2″steel rod firmly epoxied into its hollow core. The phrase “the iron fist in the velvet glove” comes to mind!

I have another acquaintance that lives in a very rainy climate, near Seattle, Washington. He makes a habit of carrying a stout full length traditional umbrella whenever he gets out of his car. Aside for misplacing several umbrellas over the years (a fairly costly mistake, since he carries a big sturdy umbrella which cost around $60 each), he has had no trouble. (And, by God’s grace, he has only had need to use it to protect himself from rain showers.) Nearly all of the stick/cane fighting techniques apply to folded umbrellas, and they can also be used quite effectively for jabbing.

My general preference is to use a shoulder-width two handed grip grip in most situations, to maintain control and more importantly to assure retention of the stick. This is akin to what has been taught for many years by police academies in the use of long (“riot”) batons. The last thing that you want to happen is to have Mr. Bad Guy gain control of your weapon. If that were to happen, you would become he “Owie” recipient instead of the Owie distributor!

Do some research on your local laws. In most jurisdictions, any blow with a striking weapon to the neck or head is considered potentially lethal. Police academies emphasize this in their baton training. (“Never strike above the chest unless you you would in the same circumstances draw your pistol and fire.”) So don’t escalate to doing so unless you absolutely confident that your life is threatened and you have no other choice. (Essentially it is the same as firing a gun–at least in the eyes of the law.) It may sound sissified and a bit too prim, proper, and “Queensbury Rules”, but most courts look at things in terms of equal force and a graduated response, roughly as follows: If Mr. Bad Guy uses his fists, then you can use your fists. If he uses a weapon, then you can use a like weapon. If he strikes above the chest, then you can strike above the chest. As a practical matter, there are no rules in trying to save your life in a street fight, but apparently there are in court houses, post facto. Yes, I realize that graduated response is not realistic to expect, since street fights are fast and furious. Most victims don’t even recognize that their attacker is using a weapon until after the incident is over. (The classic victim’s police statement is: “I thought that he was punching me until is saw the blood, and it wasn’t until then that I realized he had used a knife on me.”) But again, a graduated response is what courts will expect in order to make a ruling of justifiable force in self defense.

Don’t forget that we live in a litigious era, so expect prosecution and/or a civil lawsuit in the event that you are forced to use a weapon in self defense, even if you were entirely in the right. Show restraint, and never deal out punishment. Just reduce the threat with a quick jab or two, disengage, and then engage your Nike-jitsu technique. (Run!)

If you get into an absolutely lethal brawl (a truly “kill or get killed” situation) and you cannot disengage, then by all means aim where you can do the most damage: The front or side of the neck. The human neck is soft tissue, a bundle of nerves, veins, arteries, and wind pipe. It is your surest target to end a fight quickly and decisively. (The same goes for hand-to-hand combat. Aim your punches at his throat.) But again, it is also your surest way to find your way to a courtroom. I can’t stress this enough: show discretion!

When carrying a weapon of any sort for self defense, be sure to develop the same Condition White/Yellow/Amber/Red situational awareness skills that you would for carrying a concealed firearm. (See Naish Piazza’s article “The Color Code of Mental Awareness”, available free at the Front Sight web site. (Click on “Special Offers” and then on the link for “15 Gun Training Reports free of charge.”) Extensive training on self defense combative techniques is worthless if you don’t see an attack Be alert.

If you don’t live near a school that teaches cane and stick fighting, there is a 40 minute training DVD produced by the Gunsite academy, titled: “Defensive Techniques: Walking Stick.” It is available from the Gunsite Internet Pro Shop. (They do not accept overseas orders.) OBTW, one of my readers also recommended Lenny Magill’s training DVD “Mastering the Walking Stick“.

I should also mention that modern self defense with a walking stick (“Bartitsu“) was first popularized by Edward W. Barton-Wright. His classic 1901 magazine article on walking stick self defense is available for free download. See: Part 1 and Part 2. These techniques are weak on weapon retention, but it otherwise is still fairly valid, even after more than a century.

Update for 2009 on Yawaras and Kubotans
For discreet carry, don’t overlook the potential effectiveness of short striking weapons such as Yawara sticks and Kubotans. Since these self defense tools are restricted in many locales, I recommend instead carrying a Cold Steel Pocket Shark pen that has had its markings scraped or sanded off. Outwardly, this stout little weapon will pass for a marking pen. (And it fact, it is a marking pen, which should get you past all but the most rigorous security checkpoints.)

Some martial arts dojos offer yawara stick training. These are derivations of the ancient “closed sheath” Japanese striking techniques. These classes are offered by both karate and Filipino Martial Arts (FMA) academies. Just be forewarned that many dojos require at least brown belt ranking as a prerequisite for anything beyond “empty hand” classes. This means a lot of time and money before they will teach you how to use a yawara!

Although they are no substitute for hands-on training from a master, there are several training DVDs that can give you a head start. These include Yawara Kata Training by Maurey Levitz, Kubotans & Yawaras by Sammy Franco, and The Persuader (also known as the Kubotan or Yawara) by George Sylvan.

In closing, I must repeat that situational awareness is crucial. You mind in your primary self-defense weapon. With the right training and a survivor’s mindset, just about any small sturdy object found close at hand can be used as a weapon–even a pocket comb or just a tightly-rolled magazine or newspaper. Get the training, practice often, never travel unarmed, and maintain “Condition Yellow”, as a minimum.



Three Letters Re: N95 Masks for Influenza Protection

Dear Jim and Family,
I recently read your book “Patriots”. It was a great read and really scared me too. it brought to light all of fears I have in the back of my mind on how fragile society is and our economy. It is spurring me into action now although it will have to wait as I am deploying to Afghanistan in the next couple of months.

I just read your section on the Swine Flu and the question of N95 masks and wearing them. As an 11-year veteran career firefighter and sergeant in the Army National Guard, I felt I needed to inform your readers of one glaring life and death point about those masks that is being missed: You need to be fit tested for any mask, the word mask is a misnomer, they are respirators, if they don’t fit right, they won’t work. When it comes to diseases don’t accept anything less than a 100% fit. Not all masks work for all people, I’m sure you and your wife aren’t the same size, for example. Also, if you go on the International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF) web site there is Flu Pandemic information. The IAFF also recommends P100 masks, not N95 masks. This is because the P100s catch pretty much 100% of the [2 micron or larger ] particulates, so they are the best bang for your buck. Also a P100 is a long duration use filter, by that I mean, as the filter gets more and more saturated it will get harder and harder to breathe. The mask could be used for a day or a couple of days if need be. P100 masks are made by Moldex [, 3M, and several other makers] and sell for about $40.00 for a five-pack.

I live in Stamford Connecticut right outside New York City (NYC) and work for a large Fire Department. I fit test all 300 guys every year and about 20 size changes occur each year due to weight loss or gain. Hence another reason to be fit tested. I hope that this sheds some light on the issue of a proper-fitting mask.

Be Well, Stay Safe, and with God most of all, – SGT Joe L.

James,
An N95 or N100 mask is actually only good for a few hours of use. Once they become saturated with water from your breath, they loose their effectiveness as well as become a health hazard that makes it easy to literally asphyxiate you. The wet keeps air from going through that part of the mask and you end up breathing the air that makes it past the seal between your face and your mask. Also those of you (like me) with facial hair, out comes the razor. If you plan on spending a long time out in public during what ever the epidemic of the day is, you should carry several. This is good advice to those that have bought a single box of them and consider themselves “prepared”. The best bet during a pandemic is just to stay at your retreat, away from others.. N100 masks are quite expensive even by the box and are the best choice. N95s will do if you don’t have any N100s. – Frank B on the Border

Jim;
Referencing the letter: Recent Experience with an N95 Protective Mask: This may be a case of “pilot error”. The standard N95 mask has a bad reputation, as a retailer of N95 masks there are several drawbacks to these masks, they are:

* Fit
* Filter
* And Fouling

First let’s look at fit, because they are designed as a one-size-fits-all consumer product they obviously don’t fit every face, and they tent to gap around the edges, especially if making facial movement like talking.

Second, the filter material they are using is deemed “to stop “95% of all particulate matter larger than 2 microns”. There are several articles that show the manufacturers use every conceivable way to make their product match those standards and few of them are on actual human test subjects. [(The tests are done with mechanical test fixtures with tight edge seals.)]

Third and most important as your letter writer pointed out is “Fouling”. With out an exhalation port the filter material becomes clogged with the water vapor you breathe out. This then forces you to either force your air in and out through an increasingly “full” mask or more likely, breathe around the gaps in the mask, making it completely ineffective.

Then you may be asking “Why buy them if they don’t work”? Well the truth of the matter is that they do work, if you use them correctly and for the right reasons. The inexpensive N95 masks come in boxes of 20. That is so that you change them often. With heavy use, i.e. heavy breathing, they should be changed at least once an hour. The greatest utility for these masks is to help you to not touch your nose and mouth with your hands!

Although the Flu virus can be airborne, you are far more likely to get it by touching a contaminated surface like a door knob, stair rail, or a grocery cart handle [and then unconsciously touching your face]. So for that purpose they do a great job.

There are more expensive disposable masks on the market, (Those made by Triosyn are the best in my opinion, although very expensive and hard to find.)

Don’t count out the great standby, the N95, I stand by them, but only if they are used correctly! – Kory



Economics and Investing:

From frequent content contributor GG: Commodities market is the place to be, says Jim Rogers. Rogers describes Ben Bernanke: “He’s an idiot.”

Reader HPD mentioned this piece by Robert P. Murphy: Mish Should Ditch His Deflation Fears

Who’s getting hit most by layoffs?

LA mayor: City will pay costs from Jackson event. How can Los Angeles justify this expense, given their fiscal situation?

Struggling Landlords Leaving Repairs Undone

GG sent this: Federal tax receipts down 31% in Second Quarter

Items from The Economatrix:

Brand Name Companies Go Bankrupt

Obama Says Unemployment Will Increase for Months
How jobless numbers will respond is “not yet clear”

Some Economists Warn Obama’s Too Optimistic on Economy

Still Traveling for Business But Carefully

FBI: Bank Robber Cites Economy in Holdup

Strong Results at Intel Pull Stocks Sharply Higher

Despair Flows as Fields Go Dry and Unemployment Rises The San Joaquin Valley is America’s fruit and vegetable basket.

Jobless Benefits Run Out in Record Numbers

Washington’s Dilemma: This Isn’t a Recession, it’s a Collapse

California Nightmare (The Mogambo Guru)



Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader JN-EMT mentioned a site that describes a straightforward method to refuel a propane-converted car or truck from a 20 pound barbeque LPG cylinder. Take a look at this page for the “gas can” and other propane ideas.

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F.R. found this piece at the New Scientist site: Is your city prepared for a home-made nuke?

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Experts Now Saying Recent Cyber Attacks Came From Britain, Not North Korea

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Cheryl sent this article from Sacramento, California: Rise in County Gun Sales Tied to Fewer Cops, What Obama Might Do

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US Guns Debate Fires Up as Arizona and Tennessee Allow Guns in Bars





Notes from JWR:

For the next two weeks, starting today (Wednesday July 15), Ready Made Resources is having a special 25% off sale on case lots of Mountain House Freeze dried foods in #10 cans, with free shipping to the Continental United States. Please don’t miss out on this sale, as they don’t happen very often. Stock up!

Today we present another entry for Round 23 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried foods, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 23 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

This article might at first glance seem “off topic” for SurvivalBlog. But as I can attest personally, health insurance is a vitally important preparedness measure. If it were not for our insurance, I would be presently be bankrupt and would have been forced to sell my ranch. (My wife is presently in very precarious health and has had more than $1 million in medical expenses in the past year. Thankfully, the insurance has paid for most of it.)



Medical Insurance for Prepared American Families, by Pat C.

The American healthcare system is collapsing and it will continue to do so no matter what comes out of the current debates in Washington. As a result, healthcare in the United States will continue to rise in cost. Worse, healthcare will become difficult to obtain; specialty care is already scarce in some areas and many rural counties do not have even one doctor who will accept Medicare patients. There are many reasons for these developments that are too complicated to outline here but it’s important to be aware of these trends because they will affect your ability to obtain care when you need it.

Directly related to the healthcare system is the health insurance system which is equally a mess. Following are what I’ve learned in the past 30 years as a health insurance broker in a western state:

Why You Need Insurance

As an insurance broker, I constantly meet people who tell me that they don’t need medical insurance. Most often I’m told “I’ll just go down to the emergency room where they gotta treat me no matter what”. While this is technically accurate it doesn’t mean you’ll necessarily get the care you need. A lot depends on the tax base of the city, county, and state where you live. If your region is financially solvent, the local hospital will probably take good care of you. However, if your local government or state are in trouble, healthcare is the first thing that gets cut, leaving hospitals underfunded and understaffed. Compounding the problem is the fact that reimbursements from HMOs, insurance companies, and the various federal and state entitlement plans (Medicare, Medicaid, county welfare, et cetera) are in many cases lower than the actual cost of delivering care. As a result, the system is starved for funding and providers are in revolt. Older doctors are simply retiring and dropping out of the system. Many of the physicians that remain in practice are canceling their contracts with insurance plans and government schemes and moving to cash-only business models. (In a major city in my state, it’s getting very difficult to find a pediatrician who accepts insurance. Most are now cash only.) As for emergency rooms, it’s becoming difficult for some hospitals to staff their ERs, especially with specialists and surgeons because the outside docs have no assurance that they’ll be paid for treating the un-insured. This results in delays in critically needed treatment as ER directors frantically try to find doctors who will provide care to injured but un-insured (or government-insured) patients.

These trends are causing a serious physician shortage that’s going to get worse as more doctors exit the system. As mentioned, many of the physicians who stay around are limiting their offices to patients who pay cash or have insurance that adequately reimburses them for their time and expertise. A group of surgeons in my town recently constructed their own private hospital about two miles away from the regional medical center. Since it’s private and does not accept government funds, the doctors can limit who gets in. If you don’t have insurance, they send you over to the medical center.

The fact is that the US healthcare system can no longer afford to provide care to everyone who needs it. Most federal, state, and county systems are hopelessly bankrupt and there are 50 million baby boomers now entering their highest-cost years of healthcare needs. In the coming years, who gets treated will be primarily be decided by a person’s ability to pay the bill and private, comprehensive insurance will be one of the few keys that will get you the care you need. Like it or not, in the future the people who have insurance will get treated and those that don’t will be sidelined to long lines for tests, appointment with specialists, and needed surgeries.

How to Get Covered

Aside from cost, the biggest problem with private medical insurance is getting approved. Most states allow insurance plans to decline individuals who have prior medical problems. The debates going on in Congress now include guarantee-to-issue mandates for insurance carriers. However, these mandates – if approved – are years way from implementation. Meanwhile, people with existing medical conditions need insurance now.

Some states in the eastern US mandate guaranteed coverage for all applicants but most states don’t. If you have a pre-existing condition, the only way to get medical insurance is to be part of a group plan, either as an employee or as a business owner. The regulations vary from state to state but most states require insurance carriers to issue group coverage to eligible businesses no matter what the health of the participants. In other words, insurance companies cannot refuse to cover employees of a legitimate group. However, you can’t just call yourself a group and get covered – eligibility for a guaranteed group plan is strictly defined. In most cases, eligibility requires an established business (typically in operation at least 3-to-6 months), with two or more W-2 status employees, working at least 30 hours per week, for at least the local minimum wage. All of these requirements must be satisfied to qualify and carriers require detailed verification of these parameters in the form of business records and payroll reports. So you can’t just call yourself a group and get coverage – you have to have a real business with at least two people on a legitimate W-2 payroll.

For most people, this is a dead end. However, there is a loophole in some state laws that can get you around most of these requirements. The insurance regulations in some states allow corporate officers to count as employees for the purposes of qualifying for group insurance. If your state has this provision you can form a corporation, name yourself and your spouse (or family member, or friend) as corporate officers and become eligible for guaranteed-issue medical coverage no matter what your health history. In my state there is no requirement that the corporation actually engage in a trade or business or have revenues, nor is there a requirement that the officers be on payroll or take a salary. All that’s required is a corporate structure and at least two officers named on the filing documents. Carriers hate this loophole but there’s nothing that they can do about it if it’s part of the state’s insurance code. It’s the law and they have to abide by it.

Cautions: The corporation must be filed in your state of residence and the officers typically have to be state residents as well. Other requirements may apply depending on where you live so discuss the details with a local attorney who works with small businesses and a local insurance broker who is familiar with the group plans available in your area. Also, don’t submit a filing with 10 or 15 family and friends named as officers because they all need coverage. Keep a low-profile. You may technically be within the law but I’ve seen carriers find one excuse after another to postpone approval of a plan because they didn’t like the group. You are much more likely to get five separate corporations approved, each with two officers, than a single filing listing 10.

In my state, creating a corporation costs about $2,000 for the legal work and filing fees and there may be annual taxes levied by the state depending on where you live. Note that these outlays do not include the cost of the insurance plan; the corporation is merely the vehicle that will allow you to obtain coverage. However, once your corporation is in place, you will be able to obtain insurance and maintain coverage for the rest of your life irrespective of your health or your employment.

Pre-Existing Condition Exclusions: Even though you can obtain guaranteed coverage through your corporation, the insurance plan will not necessarily cover pre-existing health conditions. Unless you have prior insurance in place within 62 days of the start of your group insurance (“Prior Credible Coverage”), existing medical conditions may have a waiting period before they are covered. Here’s the general rule:

A pre-existing condition is a medical issue for which you saw a licensed practitioner, had tests or treatment, or for which you took a prescription medication in the six months prior to the start of the new plan. If you did not see a practitioner or have treatment, tests, or took meds for the condition in the prior six months, then you are covered for all conditions immediately. If you did have treatment of some sort, then that condition is not covered until you have been on your new plan for six months. But after six months-plus-one day, the pre-existing condition is covered just like any other illness. And once you’ve satisfied the six-month wait you won’t have to do it again even if you switch carriers or plans as long as you move directly from one group plan to another.

Finally, don’t lie about your medical history thinking that you’ll get past the pre-existing condition exclusion. Insurance carriers investigate every claim that comes in during the first six months that a plan is in effect. They can do this because the authorizations you sign when submitting a claim allow the company to obtain any medical records about you no matter how far back. Meanwhile, you’ll likely forget that during a prior office visit with your doctor he asked you about the problem and you mentioned some treatments in the past. That will be in your doc’s notes and the insurance carrier will see the note and start tracing back. If they find out you lied on the application they’ll refund all your premiums, hand you back all your claims, and rescind your coverage. People try to cheat insurance companies every day and the carriers know every lie, every scam, and every trick that people try to pull. They’ll find out if you try to cheat them and they’ll pull your coverage if you do.

Low Cost Medical Coverage

Unfortunately, there’s no such thing as "Low Cost Medical Coverage" but there is lower-cost coverage. We tell all of our clients to select a plan with the highest deductible they can afford if they get sick. High deductible plans have lower premiums but still provide comprehensive major-medical coverage in the event of a serious accident or illness. In most states carriers now offer plans with annual deductibles of up to $5,000 and that’s what we recommend.

While $5,000 may seem like a lot to pay if you get sick, you can always work out a payment plan with the hospital once you’re on your feet again. For example, let’s say that a heart attack and bypass surgery cost you $50,000, with the insurance company picking up about $43,000 of the cost. You owe the hospital $7,000 for the deductible and various co-payments and you can’t afford to write a check for the full amount. First off, thank them for taking good care of you – the hospital’s billing people get yelled at all the time about how high the bill is. Meanwhile, the hospital’s docs and nurses probably saved your life, so be respectful and grateful. Then, offer to pay $600/month over 12 months. Another strategy is to ask for a discount in exchange for immediate payment by cash or by credit card. Providers want to collect payments and close out accounts as fast as possible so many will make a deal for quick payment. If you owe the hospital $7,000 tell them that you’ll settle the bill on the spot for $3,500. They may counter at $4,500 or $5,000, but whatever figure you settle on will be a significant discount. The key here is immediate payment – have your cash or credit card ready because it’s the only enticement you have to get a reduction in your balance.

Insurance That’s Not Insurance

I occasionally get a call from someone that goes like this: “I bought insurance from a guy and then got sick and now the hospital says I owe $30,000. What can I do?” Some insurance contracts have limits on how much will be paid for expensive care such as surgery or hospitalization but those limits are buried in fine print on the back page that no one reads. These plans typically have lower rates that the local Blue Cross/Blue Shield policies and it’s tempting to purchase the cheaper coverage. However, like anything else, you get what you pay for with insurance. Plans with similar benefits all cost about the same from carrier to carrier because they pay out about the same amount of money if you get sick. So a plan that promises lower rates for high benefits is impossible – somewhere along the way, the insurance company has figured out a way to make a profit even though they charge less than their competitors. Most of the time they do this by capping the payout in some way, usually by “internal limits” on expensive benefits. For example, a company located in the Southwest has been very successful in marketing a “special” policy designed specifically for the self-employed. Their sales people tout the great coverage and low premiums and they sell a boatload of this junk insurance all over the US. What they don’t tell you is that the policy benefits have caps on the payouts. The agent will explain that the policy will pay 80% of your hospital bill but what he doesn’t tell you is that the hospital payout is limited to $10,000. (This is an actual case that I dealt with last year. A young women was diagnosed with cervical cancer about seven months after buying insurance from this company. She now owes the hospital $37,000 because her contract limited the hospital payouts to $10,000.)

Here’s what to look for: Be very suspicious of insurance plans that are connected to some sort of official-sounding “association” or “union” for the self-employed. I’ve rarely seen a plan like this that provided good coverage. Some of these plans don’t even have a real insurance company behind them – the association or union is just a front for the sales guys who sell cheap insurance, collect a pile of money from the premium payments, and then close the plan down and skip town, leaving all their customers with no coverage. (I’ve personally seen two such "plans" in my area.) Also, do not complete an application if you have to initial every page of the form. When you initial a form it means that you have read, understand, and agreed to everything on that page and doing so is legally binding. That means that you can’t sue the agent or the company if there’s a dispute later about the terms of what you signed. That’s what happened to the girl with cervical cancer – she got stuck with a $37,000 hospital bill but couldn’t sue the agent because she had initialed the page with the fine print about the $10,000 payout cap. And because of this initial-each-page scam, that guy is still out there selling his junk policies to unsuspecting people.

Before buying insurance, read the fine print. Ask questions. Listen carefully and take notes. Talk to agents from different companies. And be very suspicious of any plan that’s not insured by a major, well-known insurance company. If it sounds too good to be true it probably is.

Premium Increases: Whatever plan you choose and whatever the monthly rate, your premium will go up every year. Yep, every year. By how much? That depends on your location but in our state it’s averaged 10% per year. Some years were higher than that, some lower, but 10% is the long-term average we’ve seen and we thing that will continue. There are lots of reasons for this – too many to discuss in this posting – but it’s a fact and you need to plan for it. In addition to the annual increases, your rate will also get bumped up as you move into higher age brackets (e.g. 20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64). Fair or unfair, right or wrong, that’s the way the system works. The cost of healthcare and the cost of health insurance is going to rise in price every year. If you want access to good medical care you need to understand and plan for this reality.

The one offset to these increases is to raise your deductible from time to time. A $5,000 deductible was unheard of a few years ago and now is common. In a few years we’ll start to see deductibles of $10,000 or more. Moving your deductible up every few years will help control your premium outlays. But doing so will place increased importance on maintaining your health. In the coming years as medical care gets more costly and you raise your deductible your personal lifestyle will increasingly impact your household finances. If you lead an unhealthy life your medical expenses will ultimately bankrupt you unless you’re very wealthy. Therefore, a healthy lifestyle is now a financial decision. Cut out the tobacco, get more exercise, eat right, and get your check-ups. In short, do all the things we all know that we should be doing. If you follow though, you’ll be healthier and there will be less danger of you depleting your family’s monetary reserves by $10,000 per year for deductibles and co-pays because of a chronic illness.



Letter Re: The Utility of Horses and Horse Theft Prevention in Hard Times

Hi Jim,
I read your blog every day as I am preparing my family for the likely collapse. Thanks for the info.We are looking for the ideal spot for our retreat and have found many possible places all in the Pacific Northwest (wooded, very private and off of main roads, creeks, etc.)

Here is our dilemma: We have four horses and want to grow our own hay to feed them. How does one find a property that is remote and hidden but still with enough flat, fertile land to grow hay (5-10 acres per horse!)? Our horses are all small and hardy breeds but still need to eat! In a TEOTWAWKI scenario, do you consider horses a positive for transportation, pulling/plowing power?

We are preparing for a worst case scenario — no gasoline to import hay, closed roads, Golden Hordes, unlimited government regulation of farming/production, hungry horses, et cetera.
What are your thoughts? Thanks, – Alex

JWR Replies: Owning well-trained horses is highly recommended, particularly in a long-term situation where gasoline is either unavailable or prohibitively expensive. I recommend that you locate your retreat in both good pasture and haying country that has reliable rainfall and fertile soil. Plentiful water in the absence of grid power will be the first and foremost consideration. Assuming that you have a pair of horses that have worked in harness, find an old-fashioned horse-drawn hay mower and a large hay wagon, so your horses can earn their keep, by bringing in their fodder.

Training of both horse and rider is crucial, if nothing else than for safety. As our family has learned, a horse can do a lot of damage in a hurry, even if they are at a standstill. Get the best training you can afford. For draft horses, Doug “Doc” Hammill up in Montana is one of the best. There are of course hundreds of trail horse trainers, but for practical versatility I recommend that you also search out the best working horse trainer in your region. (Even if you don’t own cattle now, you may someday in the future.) OBTW, I recommend watching the DVD “Clinton Anderson: On the Road to the Horse Colt Starting”.  

Unless you find an exceptionally isolated property, security will be dependent on having neighbors that you can trust and in having enclosed stall space where you will secure your horses every night. You will of course need perimeter electronic security. Get a Dakota Alert infrared intrusion detection system, at the minimum.

If and when you relocate, try to buy a parcel that is essentially landlocked–but I mean this in the good sense of the term–namely a parcel with a neighboring ranch between you and and the county road. Ideally your property should have just one private deeded right-of-way lane for you to watch. (Your property should sit at least one “40” back from any public road.) That will distance you and hopefully shield your stock from line of sight, and it will greatly simplify your security arrangements. Limited avenues of approach will considerably reduce the requisite security man hours and also greatly reduce your stress level.



Letter Re: Wringers for Hand Washing Clothes

JWR:
For those who are planning to wash clothes in case of power outage or loss of delivered water I have two suggestions.

First is the wringer to get excess water out of washed clothes. Use an industrial mop wringer, such as the kind available through Lowe’s stores. It is made of heavy duty industrial plastic, and, of course, is dual use. Wring out your mops or your clothes. It is less expensive than a traditional roller type wringer.

Second, for washing clothes in small batches you might consider a foot moved (adapted to hand crank on rollers) drum cement mixer of the kind marketed by Sportsman’s Guide. It is made of poly plastic and is easily cleaned. Once again, it is a dual use item. Mix your cement (60 lb. sack capable) or in an emergency use it as a clothes washer. Due to its tight seal it could also be used as a storage container if need be, instead of a five gallon bucket. If you choose, you could get multiple buckets for storage use and then after the manure hits the spreader, when the drums are empty, use them as barter items.

One final item: Sealable plastic drums with removable tops of the 55 gallon variety are a good way to store sacks of cement and keep them dry until they are needed. Bag each cement sack in heavy duty plastic bags before storage, as a “just in case”, so that if one bursts it does not make a mess. Plastic drums used for soap –like that used by car washes (or auto dealers)–can sometimes be purchased fairly cheaply from the car wash owner. (They have a return fee to the distributor of between $10 and $20.) These type of drums have two small caps in the top and are easily cleaned and reused to collect runoff water for gardening, toilet flushing, or could be adapted for use as mini-septic tanks with exit holes drilled on one third of a side (properly called vaults) or cut a hole in the bottom, install a toilet seat and use it for an outhouse (but don’t forget to cut out the top and set it on a base layer of large gravel prior to use).

Just a few thoughts for the “adapt, reuse and recycle” minded. – Bob W., in West Virginia

Influenza Pandemic Update:

1918 & 2009 H1N1 Similarities Confirm Recombination “…the growing list of similarities between 2009 pandemic H1N1 and 1918 pandemic H1N1 continues to cause concern.”

UK: Swine Flu Vaccine to be Cleared After 5-Day Trial
(How can they eliminate the risk of pathogenicity so quickly? Your Editor is dubious.)

WHO Says Health Workers Priority for H1N1 Swine Flu Vaccine