Economics and Investing:

Reader David H. reminded me that the text of Murray Rothbard’s book The Case Against the Fed is available free, online.

From Kevin A.: Why Monday’s housing numbers are meaningless

Nolan S. mentioned this piece on a fundamental change in the gold-to-silver price ratio: DIVORCE!

The new ‘retirement’ plan: Just keep working. (Thanks to DD for the link.)

Also from DD: Bank of America to cut 10% of branches

From GG: China takes baby step to reduce dependence on dollar

Items from The Economatrix:

Biden: “Long Way” to Recovery

Bernanke: About 25 Financial Firms are Systemically Vital

Lender Failures Reach 64, Most Since 1992

British Economy Crashing at Record Pace

Italian Economy to Shrink 5.2% in 2009

46% More Likely to Buy a Ford Because it Didn’t Get a Bailout

Dealers Aim to Clear Lots with Cash for Clunkers Program

Baby Boomers Curb Free-Spending Habits. New focus on frugality has many companies scrambling

Bernanke: This May Be Worse than Great Depression

British Economic Collapse Rivals Great Depression

More than 1,000 Banks May Fail in Coming Years

$20 Per Gallon

Lost Value of Equities in US and State Government Pensions

When Debtors Decide to Default

Odds ‘n Sods:

Luis S. mentioned a great site with web feeds of police and fire department frequencies from all over the US. This is a useful adjunct to having a scanner, especially when choosing GOOD routes that are outside your scanner’s range. It might also be useful as a tool for evaluating retreat locales before you move.

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Can you spell: “Agent Provocateur”? (No, not the lingerie company.)

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Reader DD sent this sign of the times: Los Angeles Airport parking lot is home away from home for airline workers

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Do any SurvivalBlog readers know of a source for small diameter (unleaded fuel) spouts that will fit Scepter Military Fuel Cans (MFCs)? (All that I’ve seen advertised are large-diameter spouts, for diesel or the old style for leaded gas filler necks.) Thanks!

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New Texas Law: Police can use force to compel hurricane evacuation. (Thanks to Greg C. for the link.)

Gear Up — Appropriate and Redundant Technologies for Prepared Families

I frequently stress the importance of well-balanced preparedness in my writings. All too often, I’ve seen people that go to extremes, to the point that these extremes actually detract from the ability to survive a disaster situation. These range from the “all the gear that I’ll need to survive is in my backpack” mentality to the “a truckload of this or that” fixation. But genuine preparedness lies in comprehensive planning, strict budgeting, and moderation. Blowing your entire preparedness budget on just one category of gear is detrimental to your overall preparedness.

Another common mistake that I see among my consulting clients is an over-emphasis on either very old technologies or on the “latest and greatest” technologies. In the real world, preparedness necessitates having a bit of both. At the Rawles Ranch we have both 19th century technology (like hand-powered tools) and a few of the latest technologies like passive IR intrusion detection (Dakota Alerts), photovoltaics, and electronic night vision. My approach is to pick and choose the most appropriate technologies that I can maintain by myself, but to always have backups in the form of less exotic or earlier, albeit less-efficient technologies. For example, my main shortwave receiver is a Sony ICF-SW7600GR. But in the event of EMP, I also a have a pair of very inexpensive Kaito shortwaves and a trusty old Zenith Trans-Oceanic radio that uses vacuum tubes. Like my other spare electronics, these are all stored in a grounded galvanized steel can when not in use.

Here is my approach to preparedness gear, in a nutshell

  • Redundancy, squared. I jokingly call my basement Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR)
  • Buy durable gear. Think of it as investing for your children and grandchildren. And keep in mind that there’ll be no more “quick trips to the hardware store” after TSHTF.
  • Vigilantly watch Craigslist, Freecycle, classified ads, and eBay for gear at bargain prices.
  • Strive for balanced preparedness that “covers all bases”–all scenarios.
  • Flexibility and Adaptability (Examples: shop to match a 12 VDC standard for most small electronics, truly multi-purpose equipment, multi-ball hitches, NATO slave cable connectors for 24 VDC vehicles, Anderson Power Pole connectors for small electronics–again, 12 VDC)
  • Retain the ability to revert to older, more labor-intensive technology.
  • Fuel flexibility (For example: Flex fuel vehicles (FFVs), Tri-fuel generators, and biodiesel compatible vehicles)
  • Purchase high-quality used (but not abused) gear, preferably when bargains can be found
  • If in doubt, then buy mil-spec.
  • If in doubt, then buy the larger size and the heavier thickness.
  • If in doubt, then buy two. (Our motto: “Two is one and one is none.”)
  • Buy systematically, and only as your budget allows. (Avoid debt!)
  • Invest your sweat equity. Not only will you save money, but you also will learn more valuable skills.
  • Train with what you have, and learn from the experts. Tools without training are almost useless.
  • Learn to maintain and repair your gear. (Always buy spare parts and full service manuals!)
  • Buy guns in common calibers
  • Buy with long service life in mind (such as low self-discharge NiMH rechargeable batteries.)
  • Store extra for charity and barter
  • Grow your own and buy the tooling to make your own–don’t just store things.
  • Rust is the enemy, and lubrication and spot painting are your allies.
  • Avoid being an “early adopter” of new technology–or you’ll pay more and get lower reliability.
  • Select all of your gear with your local climate conditions in mind.
  • Recognize that there are no “style” points in survival. Don’t worry about appearances–concentrate on practicality and durability.
  • As my old friend “Doug Carlton” is fond of saying: “Just cut to size, file to fit,, and paint to match.”
  • Don’t skimp on tools. Buy quality tools (such as Snap-on and Craftsman brands), but buy them used, to save money.
  • Skills beat gadgets and practicality beats style.
  • Use group standardization for weapons and electronics. Strive for commonality of magazines, accessories and spare parts
  • Gear up to raise livestock. It is an investment that breeds.
  • Build your fences bull strong and sheep tight.
  • Tools without the appropriate safety gear (like safety goggles, helmets, and chainsaw chaps) are just accidents waiting for a place to happen.
  • Whenever you have the option, buy things in flat, earth tone colors
  • Plan ahead for things breaking or wearing out.
  • Always have a Plan B and a Plan C

If you are serious about preparedness, then I recommend that you take a similar approach.

Letter Re: Shoot or Don’t Shoot–Moral Implications of the Split-Second Decision to Take a Life

James,
I’ve gotta chime in here. Jeff R.’s submission is great but I think he overlooked one very important point. He said:

“If you are involved in a shooting and it appears there may be an official inquiry, forget flashy, emotional phrases that uninformed people throw around, such as “shoot-to-kill,” “shoot-to-wound,” or “shoot-to” anything. Facts, not flash, will win the day. You didn’t shoot to do anything other than to stop the action and end the danger to yourself and your family. The old shoot-to-kill question is a trap that has been used on police officers in court; “if you shot to kill, why could you not shoot-to-wound?” Anybody familiar with defense shooting knows that close quarters shootings involve little more than shoving the gun at the target and firing. Likewise, nobody involved in a shooting has the luxury of time to ponder nonsense questions like the above.”

I would submit that not only should you “forget flashy, emotional phrases” – you should say nothing.. Anything other than “Officer, my life was in jeopardy, I would like to speak to an attorney now.” is a perilous mistake. Even if you are totally justified, completely innocent of wrongdoing., say nothing. Not even innocent-seeming justifications or alibis. Nothing. “I would like to speak to an attorney now”. Anything else and you are in serious peril.

I am not an attorney. Here you can see a law professor explain why.

As a side note: There is a video commonly shown to police academy students that depicts a real situation where a man armed with a knife attacked an armed police officer from across a room (10-to-15 feet). I have heard that merely viewing that video (and communicating the fact of said viewing) to a prosecutor can result in the dismissal of charges related to shooting a person who is threatening you with a knife. (While you’re armed with a gun). YMMV. Research carefully. – Matt R.

Economics and Investing:

Eric S. spotted this: Five Firms Hold 80% of Derivatives Risk, Fitch Report Finds

A reader from South Carolina sent this: The weak dollar and the economy

Items from The Economatrix:

Michael Panzner: Wall Street’s Gains Equal Main Street’s Losses? “In sum, while a growing number of investors seem to believe that Main Street is on the mend, many of corporate America’s senior executives — who are normally not prone towards pessimistic outlooks — are maintaining that they see no real evidence of a revival where it counts — on the ground. In fact, amid an almost single-minded focus on reported earnings results, many of which only appear favorable in comparison to the low-ball, company managed estimates that clueless analysts have come up with, Wall Street hasn’t been paying much attention to just how dicey things look at the top of the income statement.”

Dollar Dying, Gold Gleaming

UK Oil Giants’ Profits Plunge $10 Billion

Facing Retirement: 70 is the new 65

Guaranty Bank Warns it’s on Verge of Failure

Lawmakers: California Budget Crisis Resolved, For Now

Small Business Loan Defaults Expected to Rise

School Budgets Dip, Class Sizes Grow

Weiss: The Great Global Gap

Atlas Vacant – The Commercial Real Estate Bust: Gearing up for a $3 Trillion Headache. Increase in Vacancy Rates and Higher Defaults

Negative Folly (The Mogambo Guru)

Treasuries Fall as US Begins Auction, New Home Sales Rise

Call for Rapid Recovery is Bubble All its Own

Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader “Korea” mentioned this company in Oklahoma as a source for military surplus ammo cans and landing mat sections: Calumet Industries. I’ve heard from several readers that they’ve been having trouble finding ammo cans at reasonable prices. Simple logic dictates that the millions of Americans presently buying ammunition in large quantity will need a place to store it, and hence the ammo can shortage. If you know of other ammo can suppliers with reasonable prices, please send me their URLs, and I’ll post them. Thanks!

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Libertarians seek a place in the New Hampshire sun. Oh, and speaking of liberty, HPD sent a link to an article posted over at the JPFO site by Timothy Baldwin: The American Revolution Revisited.

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Steve G. saw a Slashdot piece about EMP linked at Instapundit: Electronic Armageddon?

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DD sent us this item: Drought turning Texas as dry as toast. But elsewhere: 3,000 Low Temp Records Set This July!

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Tamara had a link to a video clip at The Breda Fallacy of an air head addressing the Santa Cruz City Council. Wow! What stunning logic. She might a have a future as a career politician in Sacramento, or even Washington, D.C. Tamara’s comment: “Visualize her in a voting booth. (Cry a little.)”

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Behold, a people shall come from the north, and a great nation, and many kings shall be raised up from the coasts of the earth. They shall hold the bow and the lance: they [are] cruel, and will not shew mercy: their voice shall roar like the sea, and they shall ride upon horses, [every one] put in array, like a man to the battle, against thee, O daughter of Babylon.” – Jeremiah 50: 41-42 (KJV)

Note from JWR:

Just two days left! Ready Made Resources is continuing their special 25% off sale on case lots of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans, with free shipping to the Continental United States. Please don’t miss out on this sale, as they don’t happen very often. Stock up! The sale ends Wednesday, July 29th.

Community Disaster Recovery–Asking the Right People the Right Questions

I was pleased to see this post over at the Mountain Steps blog: A letter to our county commissioner about emergency preparation for hyperinflation. It is commendable to make such inquiries, but it is essential to ask detailed questions. Especially when contacting elected officials, vague, general questions tend to elicit vague, general answers, and hence most likely no action will be taken.

It is also essential that you do some research first, to direct your inquiry letter or phone call to the right individuals. Flunkies don’t create or change policy, they just implement it. You need to direct your letter to someone that has the authority to make policy, and has the budget to implement it. (In some cases, this will mean separate contacts to whomever controls the purse strings.)

I recommend that you ask detailed questions, such as:

Do you have a back-up generator, and how many days of fuel do you keep on hand? What is your contingency plan to implement before that fuel runs out?

Can you continue to operate without grid power? If not, then what contingency plans do you have?

Is the city’s water supply gravity fed, from end to end? If not, then what contingency plans have been put in place to provide water to utility customers, in the event of a grid power interruption longer than 48 hours?

And ask:

Are electrically-pumped filters used, or traditional gravity filters?

Then, if you discover that the water system is mostly via gravity, but it uses electric pumps only for pressurized filtration, then ask: If electrically-pumped filters are used, then has a disaster contingency waiver been established with the USEPA, (for turbidity and other standards), to allow bypassing of filters in the event of a grid-down emergency situation?

Similarly detailed letters or phone inquiries should be made to your local irrigation district, your fire department, power utility, phone companies (both cellular and land line), refinery, hospital, kidney dialysis clinic, coal mine, National Guard, grocery store, et cetera.

Do not expect the grid to magically stay up and running, Assume the worst case, and plan accordingly.

OBTW, one key word to search for when estimating the resiliency of your community’s infrastructure is co-generation. Find out where the co-gen plants are, and their capacity!

Letter Re: Your Dog’s G.O.O.D. Bag

Hello Mr. Rawles;
I just found your blog site and have not read all the postings yet. One thing I have not seen is a go bag for the dog. If one has a purse mutt, a carrier with supplies is one thing but if one has a real dog that is a part of the pack (family) then a go bag for the dog is a good idea. We have a German Sheppard and she can carry her own food and water in a doggy backpack. Doggy backpacks can be found at places like Campmor.com. [JWR Adds: Dog Backpacks are also available from Amazon.com, and several other online vendors.] I would train the dog to use it before the need arises. It probably is a good idea to get a collapsible dog travel bowl as well for the water as most dogs would waste a lot of water drinking from a bottle. I have seen these fold up travel bowls for sale at Wal-Mart. In real cold areas a dog coat is good if your dog is mostly an indoor dog as they are not acclimated to the cold. Even if they are, in some areas it can get real cold outside at night. We bought our dog’s coat at LandsEnd.com. It was on reduced sale. [JWR Adds: Foul weather coats for dogs are are also available from several other online vendors.] I would think that boots for dogs would be good to save their paws from the cold or even hot pavement or maybe broken glass or other such hazards during an evacuation. Again if you use these you must train your dog to accept them. [JWR Adds: In my experience, most dogs have difficulty adjusting to using boots, and most of the available brands don’t fit well and have a tendency to slip off. A far more practical solution is to use a wax-based cream, such as Musher’s Secret on your dog’s paws.] Campmor also sells a roll up dog bed/pad that can provide thermal cushioning or you could use a piece of ensolite pad. If you take care of your dog they will live better and longer and be a better companion and protector for you.

Thank you for helping to make people aware. Best Regards, – Glennis

JWR Replies: Those were great suggestions. In my opinion, the other items that you should put in your dog’s pack is a pair of Tick Tweezers, and a sealed bottle of a strong flea and chigger repellant. Carry it in three thicknesses of Ziploc bags, just in case of leaks.

Letter Re: Distance Traveling by Waterways

Hello Jim and Family,
As a former whitewater canoeing instructor (yeah, I know – but I passed my psych evaluation) I found the recent post on traveling on water to be both enjoyable and thought provoking. I would like to add, however, that all (personal flotation devices (PFDs) are not alike. It seems that in all parts of the country, commercial rafters are in business and (for the most part) guiding people safely down some mild whitewater experiences. Occasionally, and also tragically, deaths occur when people are thrown from a raft in perfectly survivable conditions. WHY they didn’t survive has to do with a multitude of factors, clearly, but there is just no excuse for the sorry excuses for PFDs these commercial rafters use. The rules and regs are not at all onerous to deal with, and any old type II life vest that is coast-guard approved is what most people put on. These vests are considered “flat water” vests for conscious swimmers. The only kind of vest I would use in whitewater would be a or Type V, depending on the severity of the whitewater I might use a type III. Type I’s do not have a collar system, they are just “mae west” type vests that are patterned after the old WWII vests our servicemen wore. You can slip out of a type I too easily IMO, and it does not have an active system to keep a swimmer’s head out of the water.

The question should be asked? “What makes whitewater – white?” I don’t believe that people think much on this question, and they really should…

The answer? Air.

When water falls over obstacles at speed, turbulence causes air to mix with the water, it essentially decreases the ability of a person to float, you can’t really swim in whitewater either, because you’re arms and legs are just beating at air. Very turbid water is nearly impossible to float in. Even wearing a type V doesn’t guarantee that your head will be above water. A typical type II vest has 15.5 lbs of float for the adult version, and 11lbs for a child version. A type I has a minimum of 22 lbs of float, but they are not well-liked by people who have to paddle. Specs have changed over the years, and type I’s used to have sealed pockets around kapok – get a hole in the pocket and you lose flotation for that pocket. They are also bulky and cumbersome to paddle a boat in. Do not use a type I if you can help it, if you must use a type I – than make sure they use closed-cell foam inserts rather than sealed compartments. Type Vs start at Type I specs for flotation, 22lb, but generally range in the 28lb rating area. The other important difference is that the type Vs almost always have flotation collars – meant to help keep the head shielded from rocks and keep it erect during possible unconscious conditions. In Colorado we’ve recently had a spate of deaths of fully-capable adults who had been thrown from a commercial whitewater raft. I checked, and most of what they had were type II and type III PFDs (same rating, almost, as the type II).

The whitewater rafting companies going through the Grand Canyon all use type Vs. I’ve seen some guides in the canyon wear a type III, and a type V over it.

If you’re going to use water to egress, and you might have to traverse whitewater – you really need to consider what PFD you select. They are not equal in quality or versatility, and if you live by the “always bring a gun to a gunfight” mentality, whether or not you are going to wear a PFD that will actually save your life should be an easy question. You will never, ever regret having quality gear when you need it – when your 12 year old child is engulfed by a river while wearing the bargain basement PFD you “found” at a surplus store – you’ll appreciate any time you spend in selecting a good vest. – LDM in Colorado

JWR Replies: Thanks for that reminder. As your children grow older, be sure to get progressively larger life vests for them. You can even get a K-9 PFD Life Jacket.

Economics and Investing:

From GG: Regional banks on the brink

Also from GG: UK GDP continues large declines

Another Seven US Bank Closures Announced on Friday: Regulators Shut Six Georgia Banks, One in New York State

Items from The Economatrix:

Fiction Upon Fiction (The Mogambo Guru)

Experts Float Debt Bubble Fears

Hollywood Celebs Filing for Bankruptcy

E-Trade Reports Quarterly Net Loss of $143 Million Discount-brokerage company has lost 94% of its market value in past two years

Asian Stocks Rise [Friday] on US Home Sales, South Korean Growth

Consumer Sentiment Falls on Jobs Concerns

Stock Trading Slowdown Steepest in Two Decades; Rally May Fizzle

UK Economy Shrank 0.8% in 2Q, More than Double than Expected

Global Depression Triggering the Evolution and Revolution of Central Banking

Bernanke Sidesteps Economic Crisis Issues

Buffett Hits $2 Billion Jackpot with Goldman

Gold Will Hit $1,250

Odds ‘n Sods:

I just heard about Alpha Innovations, a great source for very sturdy, reasonably priced, American-made Yawaras, Koppo Sticks, Kubatons,”Letter Openers”, and other other high density injection-molded goodies. Their “Stylus Kubaton” variant is ideal for anyone that carries a touchscreen PDA or an iPhone. (Consult your local laws before ordering!) OBTW, they also make some amazing custom products and sell training DVDs.

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Vietnam Veteran Keeps Vow, Eats 40-Year-Old (C-ration) Pound Cake. BTW, The Memsahib and I ate the last of my old C-Rations around 1987.Those had been packed in the late 1970s, and they seemed quite old (but still palatable) at the time, but I couldn’t imagine eating those another 22 years later!

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Jeff in Ohio mentioned a new ham radio net on Thursday nights at 9 pm Eastern time on the 20 meter band, at around 14.320 MHz. Jeff notes: “The net is sponsored by the American Preppers Network. This may be a good way for some people to find like minded individuals in their local area. The only downside is that upon giving your call sign anyone listening can look up your location on QRZ.com unless your retreat is not co-located with your mailing address.”

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Craig W. mentioned a thread about “Discreet” hockey bags for carrying carbines.