Economics and Investing:

GG flagged this: Property Tax Rebellion Brewing After Real Estate Collapse. Here is my prediction on how this will play out: Property values will eventually drop by 50% in most of the more populous states. Assessed valuations eventually drop correspondingly, but only after a public uproar and some foot-dragging. Tax revenues will decline. State legislatures will respond, increasing property tax rates by 100%. Net result: The politicians still get their money.

Also from GG: Total Fed Credit: A Credit to Fed Stupidity (The Mogambo Guru)

K.L. in Alaska suggested this piece about U.S. Treasury auction shenanigans, posted by Chris Martenson, over at Seeking Alpha: The Fed’s Shell Game Continues…

Items from The Economatrix:

Sovereign Debt Crisis at Boiling Point

Thanks to Greenspan and Bernanke the Next Crisis Could be Even Scarier

How the Wall Street Crash Changed America Forever

Notes From Jim Sinclair’s Toronto Seminar

Shadow Government Statistics Hyperinflation Special Report (Update 2010)

BLS Releases Latest Jobs Openings Data, Number of Unemployed People Per Open Spot Increases in February to 5.5. (Some “recovery”!)

Investors Rush to Sell Greek Bonds

Odds ‘n Sods:

Readers R.V.L. and S.S. both sent this good bit of news: Arizona House approves concealed weapons bill. If it is enacted, I suspect that several other western states will follow suit with Vermont-style “no-permit-required” concealed carry bills.

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SurvivalBlog’s Editor At Large Michael Z. Williamson forwarded this: More Air Marshalls arrested than arrests made.

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Jon in Wyoming sent these two articles that underscore the importance of finding a retreat locale with plentiful water:
Water publication focuses on drought, and Colorado Basin nears drought tipping point.

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Reader J.M.S. recommended that for greater web browsing privacy, SurvivalBlog readers should switch to the Firefox browser (version 3.5 or later) and install an add-on called BetterPrivacy.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“No one of us is ever safe. There is no security this side of the grave. A shipwreck or a hurricane can put man back to the brink of savagery, both in the means he uses to get his food and the lengths he will go to get it. The more ill-prepared people are to face trouble, the more likely they are to revert to savagery against each other.” – Novelist Louis L’Amour (1908-1988) from his novel “Bendigo Shafter”

Letter Re: The Sustainable Rural Cabin

Many people spend a considerable amount of time making evacuation plans, but seldom are people properly prepared when they arrive to their destination. The purpose of the article is to incorporate proper site planning into your rural cabin. All factors are broken into general relationships allowing the user to adjust the factors to meet the unique conditions at your rural retreat. All factors are overshadowed with the emphasis on silent security. By incorporating these fundamental ideas, you are ensured a safer and prosperous retreat location.

Selection of Property
Landscape conditions vary widely. Effective site planning works with existing site conditions while minimizing exposure to potential security issues. Initially, the retreat will be located on a south facing slope with moderate slope conditions. Avoid building on ridge lines or flood plains. The water source should be nearby, or located at the retreat location. This will minimize time spent hauling water in the future. Existing vegetation should be disturbed as little as possible, especially at the vehicular entrance to the site. Most site entrances will eventually begin to erode or grass over, so take care to eliminate initial tracks inward. The site location must also be secure from view of major highways or commonly-traversed areas. The surest way to encourage others to investigate is have them easily see your location while passing by.

Designing the Outer Periphery
Once the secure site has been selected and purchased, development can begin. Evergreen windbreaks should be planted to block winter winds. In many locations in North America this will be in the north, west, and east directions. Deciduous windbreaks should be established southward to provide shade from summer sun. After fall leaves drop, the home is naturally allowed to warm from the sun. An orchard should be established just inside the confines of the windbreak. If the retreat eventually grows into a working farm, additional expansion for your garden and livestock should be left open.

Designing the Inner Periphery
The rural retreat can grow to be as large and complex as money allows. I have broken the design into six main quadrants. All areas share a relationship to the adjacent quadrant, and are thus interconnected. Quadrant one is the cabin or home. It should be built to reflect an architectural style commonly fond in your region, as to not garner unwanted attention. Large, deciduous trees should shadow it. A basement would be ideal, given that soil conditions allow. To the left of the home will be a patio of impervious material (brick, concrete, etc). this will serve as an outdoor work space and lumber storage. Underneath the patio, a common cellar and/or cistern should be located. Underground storage will provide additional food supplies during cold, waning months. To the left of the patio will be the barn, or outdoor work shed. This facility will also house the solar power panels, inverter, and battery bank, since wind power may draw attention and risk mechanical problems. The barn will also allow a secondary outlet to the cellar for additional security reasons. Just to the north of the barn will be a perennial herb garden. They should be established early, then allowed to flourish until needed. The next two quadrants to the left will be vegetable garden space. They allow your crops to be easily accessed from the home, while being watered as necessary. A deer-proof fence should fall in between the spaces of the buildings and wrap around the inner periphery as necessary. Be careful to keep at least twenty feet from surrounding fence to nearby windbreak trees. This layout could be adjusted for existing site conditions. For example, flipping the layout right to left may work better for your site, but do not flip the layout north to south. The house would then be too close to the adjacent windbreak, providing a security problem.

The information provided outlines the minimum requirements for a success rural retreat. Be careful to maintain the relationship between parts, but feel free to adjust as natural site conditions dictate. Remember avoidance is the best security measure, so by reducing your visibilities, the chances of success are greatly enhanced.

Letter Re: COSTCO’s Thrive/Shelf Reliance Storage Food Sale

Jim,
For blog readers who are COSTCO members, there is a deal running from April 5th to April 25th on a Shelf Reliance Thrive 1-year supply of dehydrated and freeze-dried food for one person. For this time period it is marked down from $999 to $799, delivered.

I couldn’t find this particular package on the Shelf Reliance web site, but I assume that it was made specially for Costco. Thanks, – Matt T.

Economics and Investing:

RBS sent us this from The New York Times: G.M. and Chrysler Pensions Underfunded by $17 Billion. (As Senator Everett Dirksen once famously said: “A billion here, and a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talkin’ about real money!”)

Reader M.Q. suggested this article: Should the U.S. Sell Its Gold? [JWR’s comment: Our gold reserve (the ostensible “backing” for the US Dollar–although US dollars are no longer redeemable for specie), if currently liquidated would fetch only $288 billion. There are an estimated $829 billion paper (printed) dollars in circulation, with more than half of those dollars held outside the US. But there are also TENS OF TRILLIONS of electronic dollars out there, as ledger entries. This illustrates why I prefer the genuine article. (Tangible wealth, not empty promises.) The US Dollar has become a pitiful joke. It is only tradition, familiarity, and good will that keep it from sinking to the level of its real value per square inch, which I estimate is somewhere between that of wall paper and toilet paper.]

Government stimuli like ‘narcotics’ for economy, Marta says

The latest installment of the Friday Follies: Myrtle Beach bank seized by FDIC

Items from The Economatrix:

Is Platinum the New Gold?

William Endahl: US Economy Will Not Recover for at Least 15 Years

Bernanke: Joblessness, Foreclosures Pose Hurdles

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

My son, forget not my law; but let thine heart keep my commandments:
For length of days, and long life, and peace, shall they add to thee.
Let not mercy and truth forsake thee: bind them about thy neck; write them upon the table of thine heart:
So shalt thou find favour and good understanding in the sight of God and man.
Trust in the LORD with all thine heart; and lean not unto thine own understanding.
In all thy ways acknowledge him, and he shall direct thy paths.
Be not wise in thine own eyes: fear the LORD, and depart from evil. Proverbs 3:1-7 (KJV)

Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 28 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Federal 5.56mm XM193 55 Grain FMJ ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $199 value, and includes free UPS shipping.

Second Prize: A.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $400, and B.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing, and B.) a Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.)

Round 28 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Suburban Survival, by The Suburban 10

I am a public school teacher with five kids and one income. There is little in the way of extra cash to protect the family, but I will do my best to prepare for TEOTWAWKI. If you want to plan well; plan as if it was a lesson plan and you are going to teach it to a class. My class is my family the the goal being not to get anyone panicked (Refer to # 9 below). Having a receptive audience is difficult, because of what I deem…complacent comforts. These are built into the core and routine of our everyday lives that we depend on all to often (you know what they are).

Suburban survival is a surreal world of isolation. You feel alone although you are surrounded by tens of thousands of complacent people who are very comfortable in their grid dependent homes and lifestyles. Try living in suburban New York in which neighbors think you’re getting wacky because you talk of preparing for an event that they deem impossible or extremely remote.

You ask that I provide what works. I provide to you what may work and what does not work when trying to explain to neighbors the concept that more people prepared the less people in need . Going Social and leading a group of individuals is not an option. Sorry, but human nature is 90% reactive and 10% proactive. If you are reading this wonderful blog and this story I tell, then good for you, welcome to the proactive10%. But does anyone really know what will work? You ask for what is proven. Nothing is proven when it comes to TEOTWAWKI. Just prove to yourself that you have prepared for the worst and hope for the best to the greatest of your ability without losing your mind.

What may work is what I have planned for this summer.

1. Two years ago, this house I bought has a chimney with the wood stove removed. I have since bought a wood stove on eBay and will install it this summer. Contact local tree services for what is known as a hook (someone who can give you free wood because around here it costs them money to get rid of it).
2. The back 6 feet of my garage is walled off as a walk in pantry and safe room. Steel racks from target $80 to store the basic recommended foods and three 5 gallon clear water containers. Stores such as Target.com and Harborfreight.com sell a nice three bottle storage rack and a $4.00 hand pump.
3. We like to go camping, so the escape gear is packed and ready to go in the garage. I have three day MRE food packs for each child. Books, games, toys and blankets. I like the items from www.lifesecure.com if you want it all pre-packaged.
4. The Aqua Rain Gravity Water Filter will be used for long term water consumption because I have a fifteen diameter above ground pool that maintains 5,000 gallons of water. Fun to play in and a nice supply of water when filtered. Five gallon clear containers will be wheeled to and from the pool to a basin and then filtered and stored.
5. As an alarm. We have a small barky Cairn Terrier. He has proven to be very territorial. I have encountered many dogs in my life and the small ones seem to bark at strangers the best. Not to scare them off but to let you know there is an intruder.
6. Pray. With the Lord there is confidence and the resolve that you are giving it your best shot and some things are just plain out of you hands and in His.
7. Stay fit. Run and stretch. Exercise with you family. Personally I run and work out with a 1” by 3’ wooden staff. [These are commonly called “dog chasers’] It is cane-like and there are many defensive and offensive forms that can be used.
8. I have friends who are police officers and have never fired their weapon in the line of duty. Do you really want to shoot someone? I train my family for a chaotic attack. We have code words and all have set actions when the code word is mentioned. No matter how crazy things get remember that everything is negotiable. Have a planned system for dealing with a threat other then sending bullets all over the neighborhood. If you can offer an item or two to the desperate individual (who may truly need help) then do so. If they really look like trouble or if they are armed then at least have pepper spray ($11.99 per can here in New York). If you are going to shoot someone, then expect to be shot at as well. You can always think from the other end of the barrel as well, by checking out this web site.
9. Communication – The FEMA and Ready.gov have suggestions on how to communicate to you kids so they know that what you are preparing for is legitimate. The other type of communication Midland Nautico NT3VP VHF 88-channel Two-way radio covers many of the important radio bands as well a my CC SWPocket AM/FM Shortwave Pocket Radio From C. Crane Company.

10. My preparedness approach, in a nutshell:

Heat- Wood

Cook- Wood Stove

Light – Oil Lamps

Food – Stocked bulk items

Water – Aquarain Water filter 2000gallons per filter

Books – Survival (I own three right now), and fiction

Kids – Lots of Books Games, Toys (Legos) and art supplies

Long Term:

Food – fishing and trapping (raccoon/squirrel, locally)

Barter – Lots of practical things and 1 ounce US Silver Eagles (Currently @ $19 each)

Money – $5 Bills (x 50) as a cash reserve

Protection – The Lord gave us our eyes, ears and intuition.

Letter Re: Home Brew Biodiesel Versus Vegetable Oil

Greetings James!
I just completed your book “Rawles on Retreats and Relocation”. Thank you for putting so much effort into this resource. I would like to make one point: You talk about [several] alternative fuels [including] Vegetable oil and Biodiesel. As a point of clarification, Biodiesel is significantly different than Vegetable oil.
Biodiesel is created by putting vegetable oil through a conversion process where by the glycerin is removed. This process creates a much cleaner fuel, burns more completely in the vehicle and does not require a separate fuel system to preheat the fuel to 170 degrees, as does Straight Vegetable Oil (SVO).

I have been making Biodiesel from used vegetable oil for six years now and have used my homemade fuel in my 1997 Ford F250 for over 70,000 miles.
We carry a very large 110 gallon auxiliary tank in the back and have a travel range of just under 2,000 miles, unless we are pulling the camper [trailer].

I digress. Making biodiesel in a survival situation would be difficult at best. It takes methanol, lye, water and heat–lots of heat.

Running straight vegetable oil in a survival situation would be easier [with a two tank system], as you pointed out in the book. Find it, filter it and put it in the tank, as long as the outside temps are good and warm.

Thanks for your work. I also enjoyed reading “Patriots”. Take care and God Speed! Rick H. of Omaha Biodiesel

Three Letters Re: Meet The Saiga Family

James Wesley:
I absolutely love my Saiga-12. With the 20 round drum it is a walking talking claymore. I have tried the 30 round magazine and it is just too bulky. Unless you plan to deploy the Shotgun with some type of shooting sticks then 20 is the way to go. Much more manageable. As to the magazines: I prefer the 10 rounders. While having two more shells in the magazine is nice, the added length (an additional 3 inches) is a little comical. Not to mention the problem of finding some tactical pouches that accommodate the longer magazines. TheVestGuy.com makes those pouches, but then you still have to find a vest/rig to hold the pouches and they seem very cumbersome to me. The ten rounders are still big, but you can setup your battle rig around the 10-rounders without sacrificing mobility. Nice write-up though. For the record, I don’t have an iron in fire but MD Arms presently has their 20 round drum on sale for $100. They have been in a pitched marketing war with the Wraithmaker drum maker over whose drum is better. I don’t have a favorite, but I will say that competition makes for a happier consumer. The drums used to sell for over $300 each, from both sites. – A.J.K.

Jim:
Readers should do some research before joining the “family.” I’m not here to bash the Saigas but there are better choices out there especially when it comes to the Saiga 12. A magazine fed 12 gauge semi-auto is a great idea but if you do even cursory research you will find that the Saiga 12 is far from the most reliable semi-auto shotgun. It does not have a bolt hold open feature after the final shot which will nullify, to a certain extent the magazine advantage. (I believe it can be retro-fitted to a last shot bolt hold open) With the right magazine, aftermarket springs, and polishing/finishing of the gas port the Saiga 12 can be dependable but there are two clear choices when it comes to a self defense semi-auto shotgun – i.e. the FN SLP and Benelli M4. You can shoot these and reload as you go – I believe the tube feed is superior in this regard but everyone has an opinion. Yes both are a grand or more but worth every penny and are as reliable as a semi-auto shotgun can get. For home defense many, myself included, feel that a 12 gauge is the ne plus ultra when it comes to firearms. Good from zero to 100 yards with slugs and even if the bad guy is wearing body armor it will incapacitate him so he is either dead or out of the fight. If money is an issue, and it is for me, (I’m saving up for an FN SLP) get a H&R Pardner Protector Pump for $200 which has a reputation for reliability and is a clone of the Remington 870 so all parts can be interchanged – including the barrel with a spacer. I had a $200 credit and my Gun Shop guy recommended the Pardner – said they had sold hundreds and never had one returned for any reason. I got it based on trust and then researched it (not best way to do things) and it is hard to believe how much gun you get for $200. As for capacity, many home defense shotguns will hold 9 rounds which is plenty and can easily be reloaded as you go. In the end practice makes perfect. The fastest handgun shooters in the world use revolvers. A dedicated cowboy action shooter will prevail with “primitive” firearms over the latest and greatest if the latter does not practice. I agree with the writer that the Saiga guns are worth considering – just do some homework first. – John M.

Hi,
I wanted to make a couple comments re: the recent article on Saigas by Brett G. First, I am a Saiga fan, own and shoot Saiga-12 shotguns, and used to own a couple Saiga .308 rifles. That said, advising someone to focus only on the Saiga family for their weapons needs is, in my opinion, very ill-advised.

The first reason is simple: spare parts and magazines. All of the magazines for the Saiga family are expensive and relatively hard to find. The relatively low expensive cost of the rifle itself is quickly outweighed by magazines costing $50 each. Take the Saiga .308 for example: $500 for the rifle and 10 magazines costs you $1,000. For the same price you can get a PTR-91 [a HK91 clone] and 100 of the 20 round capacity [alloy G3] magazines. I recently stocked up on HK G3 20-rounders (that work in a PTR-91) for just $1 each.

The second reason is utility. The author recommends the Saiga-223. The consideration that is ignored here, of course, is the modular nature of the AR-15 platform. For example, the author mentions that while .308 is a good all-around cartridge, a rifle in .50 BMG might be desirable, then goes on to state that the cost might be prohibitive. However, there’s no reason to have a dedicated rifle for .50 BMG when an upper for an existing AR-15 works just as well and is cheaper. Also, [in the US] barreled AR-15 upper receivers have no paperwork required, for those who are concerned about such things. Further, other options exist such as the .458 SOCOM or the .50 Beowulf both of which are also available as AR uppers and utilize commonly-available M16 magazines. And regarding magazines, why wait to find Saiga-223 mags on sale at one of the few vendors that sells them when you can get AR mags for $10 less anywhere, every day?

I’m a fan of my Saiga-12 shotguns, but when it comes to rifles I think there are better options out there for someone assembling a collection that will be used for defense and survival. – J.T. in Michigan

JWR Replies: I concur with you in general. However, I suspect that magazines for Saigas will become a commodity within a few years. (That is, barring another full capacity magazine production and importation ban, here in the US.) I’ve recently seen Saiga magazines drop to under $35 each, and they will probably be under $25 each within another year. The law of supply and demand in a free market can be a good thing!

I actively discourage you from buying .458 SOCOM, .50 Beowulf, or 6.8mm uppers unless or until you already have a full complement of ammo, spare parts and magazines for your rifle in the standard 5.56mm chambering. Don’t make the mistake of depending on guns in oddball chamberings, at least not for la fine del mondo come lo conosciamo. (Or, since this is in the context of Russian Saigas, perhaps I should say: “konéts svéta”.

Economics and Investing:

Leland suggested this blog series by Kellene Bishop: Hard-Core Financial Preparedness

B&T sent us this from Shadowstats: Actual March unemployment 21.7%. (“March Employment Gain of 162,000 Was 114,000 Net Result of Temporary Census Hiring.”)

Carla sent this scary bit of news: Petrol $9.00 a gallon in UK. Thankfully that is per Imperial gallon (1.2 US gallons) but that still works out to $7.67 per gallon.

Items from The Economatrix:

Santelli: $4 Gas, $150 Oil Coming this Summer

Unemployment Benefits Expire for Thousands

The Line Of Doom (The Mogambo Guru)

What Does it Mean to be Middle Class in 2010?

UK: High Earners Hit As 50% Tax Goes Ahead

Initial Jobless Claims Increase Unexpectedly

Oil Down to Near $85 as Two-Month Rally Stalls

Broke Icelanders Opt for Exile

Odds ‘n Sods:

Neal spotted a web site for an interesting camping stove that has an integrated thermoelectric generator (TEG), to provide a draft. Given its design and the materials used, I have my doubts about its useful working life, but the overall concept is captivating.

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Israel distributes biochemical war protection kits to civilians.

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An expensive lesson on Big Bears and Big Government: Alaska man who fed wild bears pleads guilty. (A hat tip to RBS for the link.)

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Ask the first man you meet what he means by defending freedom, and he’ll tell you privately he means defending the standard of living.” – Reverend Martin Niemoeller (1892-1984) German Lutheran pastor, was arrested by the Gestapo and sent to Dachau in 1938. He was freed by the allied forces in 1945.