Economics and Investing:

Reader Steve C. sent this: Foreclosure Rates Surge, Biggest Jump in Five Years

The editors of The Daily Bell alerted us to this news article: Expert: Bear Market Can Last for Another Five Years

Ray T. suggested this: IMF Prepares For Global Cataclysm, Expands Backup Rescue Facility By Half A Trillion For “Contribution To Global Financial Stability”

Items from The Economatrix:

Rise in Jobless Claims Underscore Wobbly Recovery

Stocks Edge Higher on Mixed Reports, UPS Outlook

Low Stock Market Volume: It’s Even Weaker Than You Think

Oil Jumps to $86 a Barrel

Treasurys Slump After Bernanke, Beige Book Bond Report

Oil Above $80 Could Stall Global Economic Recovery



Odds ‘n Sods:

T.B. mentioned that a map of natural hazard mortality in the United States has been produced. The map gives a county-level representation of the likelihood of dying as the result of natural events such as floods, earthquakes or extreme weather.

   o o o

The Deflation flags are still flying: Wal-Mart Bets on Reduction in Prices. (A hat tip to Chad S. for the link.)

   o o o

Reader Brian B. sent this from The Daily Iowan: Gun Law Stirs Controversy

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Sometimes, the small trend indicators can have great significance: U-Haul tracking data suggests more families migrating to Kentucky,
Vermont than other states
. (A hat tip to GG for the link.)

   o o o

Shortage of Rare Earth Minerals May Cripple U.S. High-Tech, Scientists Warn Congress. (Our thanks to Eric S. for the link.)



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The art of taxation consists of so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest amount of feathers with the least possible amount of hissing." – J.B. Colbert, French Statesman, circa 1665



Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 28 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Federal 5.56mm XM193 55 Grain FMJ ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $199 value, and includes free UPS shipping.

Second Prize: A.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $400, and B.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing, and B.) a Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.)

Round 28 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Better Barter Preparedness, by Dan H.

I’ve heard a lot of suggestions about bartering.  Some of them are good ideas, while others might be dangerous.  Bartering is just trading, either goods for goods, goods for services, or services for services.

First of all, we need to ask why we are bartering at all.  If we need to barter, it is probably because we need (or just want) something we don’t have, and someone else needs or wants something that we have.  If something isn’t exchanged by both parties, then it’s essentially a begging or charity situation.

It is best to put yourself in a position where you don’t need to barter at all.  Have everything you need.  If you don’t have enough food, water, shelter, weapons, medical supplies, communications equipment, gardening supplies, energy, transportation, books, tools, or skills, then you need to get those first!  Try to prepare yourself to the point that you have enough for charity.

None of us can be totally prepared as an individual.  Very few of us can be totally prepared as a family.  Even few multi-family groups will have everything they will ever need.  This is why you will need to prepare for bartering.

Ideally you want to be prepared enough that you don’t need to barter for tangible items (food, weapons, etc.).  It is very difficult, however, to have all the skills you might need.  Some of the skills you may have to barter for might include medical, veterinarian, electrical, mechanical, machinist, or heavy labor.  Those first skills I mention can take years of training and practice to become proficient.  The need for those skills are probably obvious.  The last one, heavy labor, might not be considered a “skill”, but clearly it isn’t something you can store up for years.  Labor help might certainly be needed by the weak or elderly, but even a strong young family might need help with a bigger project (large crops, digging an irrigation system, constructing a building, cutting wood, etc.).

Now that you know why you might need to barter, the question becomes what do you use for barter?  A skill is a very valuable thing to have.  As I have said, for most people, skills are hard to store for a rainy day.  And if you are the one with a valuable skill, it takes no room for you to store it.  And, when you give your skill to someone, you still have it when you leave.  Most of us, however, will be trading something tangible for a skill or for something tangible.  Think of tangibles you can get now, that might be valuable during TEOTWAWKI, that store well, cost little, and can be hard to make.

I strongly suggest that the primary item you store for bartering is food.  Look at almost any big disaster, or the lives of people in Third World countries.  Food is generally the most sought after item.  Use your head when you barter with food.  Don’t do anything to give the impression that you have lots of it.  You may want to act like it is your very last meal and you’re only trading it away out of desperation.  You don’t want someone coming by later and taking the rest of your food by force.

Other items I would suggest are lighters, matches, toilet paper, feminine protection,  duct tape, razors,  soap, lithium batteries, aluminum foil, coffee, small bottles of drinking alcohol, and cigarettes.  Those last items may be very desirable to those with addictions, even if you don’t use them yourself.  Fuel might also be used for barter, but its bulk, hazards, and shorter shelf life might make it hard to store enough to spare any for barter.

Generally, you should probably not barter your own firearms and ammunition for other goods.  First of all, if you’re trading your firearms away, it must mean you didn’t store enough of something else.  Extra guns and ammo can be expensive.  Use some of that money to get more food and other supplies so you are less likely to need to barter in the first place.  And, the price of a gun can buy an awful lot of the other bartering items I mentioned.  My second thought would be concern that the gun or ammo would be used against you or your family.  If you’re willing to trade a gun to someone, it should be someone you would trust with your gun at any time.  I might barter a gun in exchange for a service, or barter to someone who already has a gun.  If you trade it to the wrong person, you might truly be at the losing end of the deal.

Don’t get me wrong.  You need plenty of guns and ammo for yourself, your family, and maybe some spares.  My plans, generally, don’t include using them for barter.  You definitely don’t want to be in a position of having to barter to get a gun.

If you notice, I haven’t mentioned water as a bartering item.  That’s because I think you should not barter with water.  First of all, you should have planned well enough that you will not have to go to someone else for your water.  And, if you have water to barter with, then you can afford to give it away to someone in need.  I think nobody should be deprived of water if it’s available.  If you have the only water hole in 50 square miles, then share!  It’s just the right thing to do.  Water is more replaceable.  It can fall from the sky, food generally doesn’t.

After you get your bartering supplies in order (remember, get your personal supplies in order first), then you should make a list showing what items you are willing to barter away, and how many of those items you’re willing to get rid of.  At the end of the list, you should make some notes telling why you decided what items are to be bartered and why.  If you’re not around to make the bartering decisions, the list can be a great benefit to whomever is bartering.

Some great tips on how to actually barter can be found in Jim’s book, “How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It”.  Check it out. [JWR Adds: I also wrote some advice on bartering strategies, and that 2008 article is available in SurvivalBlog’s free archives.]

So, plan ahead.  Be smart about who you barter with.  Store enough supplies for yourself, for charity, and for safe bartering.



Product Review: Triple Eight Professional S.O.L. Knife, by Michael Z. Williamson

This tiny knife is a very durable piece of hardware.

Construction is of steel, with a hard phosphate or oxide finish. The pivot is adjustable with a spanner wrench, very smooth and has slick bushings. The lock is of the rotating handle design, with strong pins to hold the blade rigid when open. The handles swing easily open or closed, and remain in place in the hand without slipping.

The finish survived being dropped on a tile floor unmarked. The handle did open a fraction—the detent is fairly light.

As can be seen from the photos of the knife, it’s very small open and closed, with a blade about an inch long. This model has one side serrated and one plain, in AUS8 steel. The serrations are surprisingly fine with good geometry to cut rather than drag.

The serrated side was able to saw through an electrical cord in few strokes, with no damage to the teeth. The plain edge cut a 3/8” bevel all the way around a firewood log and still shaved hair. I jabbed the point in and bent until it popped a small divot of wood out, without damaging the tip at all. This was a fairly brief test, but the knife still looks brand new after it.

The design is similar to the OSS Thumb Dagger, and that is the best and most comfortable grip to use to hold it (See photos). It excels at chores such as opening packages and cutting cord, and easily stabs containers open. A variety of tests were conducted and it was still new looking and sturdy, and still shaving sharp. No tests were conducted on metal containers yet.

The knife also has a lanyard/key ring, and when folded is about the size of most common keys and keychain tools, so is very discreet for carry.

For those who prefer other blade designs, the company offers a flat chisel and hooked cutter “CopTool” for seatbelts and such, the “WrightKnife” that is single edged with a contour for the thumb, the “RhinoKnife” with a caping blade with gut hook, the “TalonKnife” with what appear to be line and cord cutters built in, and the “Kirkidashi Knife” that is a miniature damascus tanto. Chinese manufacture is quite standard in the blade industry anymore, but all are designed by well-known American bladesmiths, built under American license. The workmanship seems quite sound.

These would make great small knives for pocket carry, or as emergency tools for the vehicle. They’re small enough to carry in shorts or even a swimsuit pocket, or to keep in a vehicle console with a lanyard for easy access.

Most models retail at $34.95 and will undoubtedly be less expensive through most retailers.



Economics and Investing:

GG sent this: Pray For Inflation — It’s Our Only Hope. [JWR’s Comment: Well, its the government’s only hope. For the Citizenry, mass inflation will be wealth destruction. As I’ve noted before, inflation is essentially a hidden from of taxation.]

Reader CZD sent this item: The Dow at 11,000 is Misleading. (CZD warns that he expects there will be multiple dips. I concur. This “recession” is far from over. I stand by my assertion, that we are actually in the early stages of of depression.)

Items from The Economatrix:

The Dow’s Up But Trades are Scarce, Worrying Bulls

Jim Sinclair: Bank Prohibits Bullion and Cash in Safety Deposit Boxes

PIMCO’s Bill Gross Frantically Dumping Treasuries, Thinks US Interest Rates Will Soar

Gas Prices are Up, But is That a Good Thing?



Odds ‘n Sods:

SurvivalBlog’s Editor At Large Michael Z. Williamson keyed in on this article: BOB, America’s Biggest Sodium Sulfur Battery, Powers a Texas Town

   o o o

Titus suggested this population density map as a good starting point for looking for retreat locales.

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H.A.H. suggested this WorldNetDaily article: County to feds: They’re our roads! Supervisors vote to reopen routes hit by BLM closure

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Randy F. liked this piece, by my hero Walter E. Williams: Parting Company.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Even as a youngster, though, I could not bring myself to believe that if knowledge presented danger, the solution was ignorance. To me, it always seemed that the solution had to be wisdom. You did not refuse to look at danger, rather you learned how to handle it safely.” – Isaac Asimov,”The Caves of Steel“, p. viii



Note from JWR:

I just heard from my editor at the Plume Division of Penguin Books that another publisher has purchased the rights to produce a Bulgarian language edition of my non-fiction book “How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It”. As Alice said: “It just gets curiouser and curiouser. “

Today we present another entry for Round 28 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Federal 5.56mm XM193 55 Grain FMJ ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $199 value, and includes free UPS shipping.

Second Prize: A.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $400, and B.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing, and B.) a Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.)

Round 28 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Thoughts on the Bug Out Bag, by Tugboat

When I think on the “Bug out Bag” I am not thinking of a basic survival kit. The survival kit is designed to be small, portable, and with you whenever you venture out into the woods. The bug out bag is a larger version of the same but designed for a totally different scenario. When you know you are going to be on your own for an undetermined amount of time.
First off it will be larger than a survival kit; usually a small backpack or duffle will suffice to carry all you will need for an extended stay away from civilization. It will also need to carry the basics in shelter, first aid, clothing, food and cooking, as well as means to procure food from natural resources. With this in mind, let’s list the things necessary to any kit and then you can tailor it to your specific needs.
Shelter:  One can do well with a tarp and some imagination. I would recommend one about 10’x 8’ as a minimum. There are also small camping tents that are very roomy and light weight that added with a tarp would make a very comfortable camp. Don’t forget a bedroll or a couple heavy wool blankets.
First Aid: In any situation one must be capable of dealing with physical injuries from minor cuts and scrapes to sprains and broken bones. A good commercial first aid kit will cover most of these as well as contain a booklet on how to treat these conditions I consider this as an essential.
Also don’t forget a supply of medications you are taking, as well as a supply of throat lozenges, pain relievers (advil or tylenol), and yes, a small bottle of whiskey or other strong spirits can come in very handy as both an anesthetic and antiseptic.
Clothing: Depending on where you live and where you plan to go the proper clothes are essential. I would recommend a set of clothes that can be layered and rely on natural fibers like wool to help retain heat in cold and cool in hot weather. ‘Nuff said.
Food and water:  First, you can’t carry enough. I would stock up on MREs . Being light weight and easy to fix carrying enough to last a week or two should not take up too much room in your pack. Water is heavy, but necessary carry as much as you can and also carry a water purification system be it tablets or a filtration system. For cooking a small Boy Scout cook kit is great it contains a pot, plate, cup, and a fry pan that nests together and takes up very little space. Also don’t forget the basics like dry flour, sugar, tea bags, salt, pepper, hot sauce, dry beans, corn meal, oil, et cetera.
And lastly we come to the means of obtaining food in the wild.
The first thing that comes to mind to me is a small telescopic spinning rod and reel with a small box filled with a few lures, hooks and sinkers. You should be able to find bait and be able to fish the local streams and rivers in your area. The next thing I would have is a book showing the edible plants growing in your area.  And lastly, choosing a firearm.  This has been covered by so many different writers that it would be an individual’s choice of the best to bring. I will stick my neck out and say that my Ruger 1022 .22 rifle, NEF .410 shotgun, and my Ruger .357 magnum Blackhawk, or a smoothbore flintlock musket and a .44 cap and ball revolver would fill most of my foraging and protection needs.
Along with a couple flashlights, matches, lighters, extra cordage, your basic survival kit and a healthy dose of common sense you should do well wherever you happen to take off for.
There is nothing wrong with being prepared.  For it is better to have something and not need it than to need and not have it.



Implications of the U.S. National Debt — The Upright Spike

It is noteworthy that the Federal Debt chart has again turned sharply upward, to nearly an upright spike, rising to 90%+ of GDP. This level of Federal indebtedness had only one precedent: the massive spending that was needed to finance World War II. The current massive over-spending on the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) can’t go on indefinitely. At some point, the piper must be paid. In the long term, gross overspending will have some major implications for U.S. Treasury paper, and inevitably for the U.S. Dollar as a currency unit.

I should mention that in 1945 (the peak of the last indebtedness spike), the U.S. dollar was still a net lender nation and our currency was still redeemable–by the citizenry in real silver coinage, and by foreign governments in gold. But since 1985, we have been a net debtor nation, and since 1971, the “dollars” in circulation have been backed only by the hot air that emanates from the District of Criminals. My advice is that henceforth that you don’t believe in any of the following:

  • Empty political promises of “Change”,
  • Hopes of “winning big” in the lottery,
  • Debased and irredeemable currencies,
  • “The check is in the mail”
  • The long term prospects for governments with bankrupt treasuries,
  • Unfunded pension plans, or
  • The Tooth Fairy

In many ways the United States is in worse shape than Greece or Iceland–the so-called “basket cases” of Europe. This is because our long-term unfunded obligations (most notably Federal pensions, Social Security, interest on the national debt, and now socialized medicine) are proportionately much larger than theirs. These obligations can be measured somewhere north of $65 Trillion. There is no way, whatsoever, that these obligations can ever be fully met, given the demographics of our aging population. As my maternal great-grandfather was fond of saying in his intentionally fractured Spanish: “No ay ningun posibilidad!” (“There ain’t no way!”) Even if personal incomes were taxed at a rate of 100% in the year 2050, it wouldn’t cover these obligations. So there are only two ways out for Schumer and Company: Either the programs will have to be drastically reduced, or the payments will be made in greatly inflated dollars. I suspect the latter will be more politically expedient.

In the long run, despite the purported “good intentions” of those controlling monetary and fiscal policies, the U.S. dollar is simply doomed. Therefore, I sincerely hope that you, dear readers, are hedging into tangibles! What is in our future? In a word: Inflation.In fact, there is already evidence of inflation getting underway. Perhaps in a few years, we may see sights like this — a sign posted at a public restroom on the Zimbabwe/South Africa border.

I’ve said it before, but I must repeat it. To protect your savings from the ravages of inflation, you’ll need tangibles, tangibles, tangibles! – J.W.R.





Letter Re: Sustainable Rural Cabins

Jim;
In the article, “Sustainable Rural Cabins”, under the headline, “Designing the Outer Periphery”, the author wrote, “Evergreen windbreaks should be planted to block winter winds”.

That works fine if the evergreens, (or other trees), you plant and the way you group them is consistent with the way the same trees occur naturally in the area. For example, if white pines grow naturally in the woods around where you are establishing your homestead, then you can plant more white pines and they won’t be noticed. But if you plant, for example, blue spruce where none normally occur, you can see them from a distance, and any observant woodsman will know that humans are there. Camouflage includes becoming unnoticed. If you plant not appropriate species of trees or bushes in an area, you might as well put up a billboard that shouts, “Here I Am!. If you are trying to conceal your whereabouts, remember to observe nature, work with nature, be consistent with nature. – Jim Fry, Curator, Museum of Western Reserve Farms & Equipment



Economics and Investing:

Kevin S. recommended this from the Global Guerillas Journal: What Makes a Home Valuable?

CBO chief says debt ‘unsustainable’. (Out thanks to reader S.M. for the link.)

GG and Chad S. both flagged this: Gold hits record high for British investors; The price of gold has risen to an all-time high in sterling and euro terms.

Also from GG comes this video clip: Meredith Whitney: Housing Will Fall Again

S.M. sent this: Is the World’s Second Biggest Economy On the Ropes?

Items from The Economatrix:

Stocks Trade Mixed After Alcoa Results Fall Short

February Trade Deficit Increases to $39.7 Billion

Oil Price Slide Continues for Fifth Straight Day

Pensions: The Untold Crime of the Century

The Power of Gold

With 1 in 5 Americans Out Of Work, Obama Issues One Million Green Cards

A Mortgage Crisis Picturebook Even a Progressive Could Understand

Commentary from Dan Denninger: Did The Fed Just (Surreptitiously) Bail Out Europe?