Economics and Investing:

More trade war rumblings: China Condemns U.S. Tariffs on Tires as ‘Protectionism‘. (Our thanks to KAF for the link.)

Reader Laura H. mentioned: In 2009, US public debt will be approximately 90% of GDP “In 2009, US public debt will be approximately 90% of GDP. It will quickly approach and surpass 100% of GDP in the near future.”

Items from The Economatrix:

Getting Better Bargains Easier in this Economy


Government Home Loan Agency Faces Cash Squeeze
. “The Federal Housing Administration said Friday that its financial cushion will sink below mandatory levels for the first time in its history, but officials insisted the agency won’t need to be rescued.”

42 States Lose Jobs in August, Up from 29 in July

FDIC Chief Considers Tapping Treasury for Funds “The chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. says she is “considering all options, including borrowing from Treasury,” to replenish the dwindling fund that insures bank deposits. … Bair’s remarks go beyond what she said just three weeks ago when asked about tapping the Treasury after the fund that insures regular deposit accounts up to $250,000 hit its lowest point since 1992, at the height of the savings-and-loan crisis. “Not at this point in time,” she said on Aug. 27…. The FDIC’s fund has slipped to 0.22 percent of insured deposits, below a congressionally mandated minimum of 1.15 percent.” [And she didn’t know this on August 27th?]

Stocks Advance as Investors Look to Resume Rally

Oil Down to $72 on Concerns Demand Recovery Slow


Gold Industry Faces Reserve Crisis

Celente: Revolution Next for US

Volcker Launches Bombshell on Wall Street and D.C.



Odds ‘n Sods:

An average of once per day, I get forwarded “warning” e-mails about two essentially mythical legislative threats: SB-2099 and HR-45. Let me clear up some misunderstandings: SB 2099 is dead in committee, and is a piece of Illinois state legislation (not Federal), with no co-sponsors. HR-45 (a.k.a. The Blair Holt bill) is an actual bill before the US House of Representatives but it is similarly dead in committee, with no co-sponsors. (See the last two paragraphs of its Snopes article. BTW, I consider it horribly disingenuous of the leftist Snopes editors to bury this information at the bottom of the article.) Please stop forwarding this nonsense, and instead concentrate your efforts on real legislative threats.

   o o o

Cheryl sent this: Poll: 45% of Doctors Would Consider Quitting if Health Care Overhaul is Passed. Contradicts what the White House and AMA are saying

   o o o

UK Think Tank Says US Power is Fading



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Human freedom is not a gift of man. It is an achievement by man; and as it was gained by vigilance and struggle so it may be lost in indifference and supineness." – Harry F. Byrd



Linda Rawles Memorial Fund Donations

Before her recent death, my wife Linda (“The Memsahib”) asked that any memorial donations be made to her favorite charity, Anchor of Hope Charities, the main sponsor of the Anchor Institute, a Christian school and orphanage in rural Zambia. It is a very deserving charity, with hardly any overhead expenses. You can make a tax-deductible donation via PayPal, credit card, or by check. See the via PayPal/credit card page, or the mailing address for checks at the Anchor of Hope Charities Donation Page. Thanks for supporting this worthy charity! May God Bless You.



Economics and Investing:

Pete A. spotted this one: Map: Household incomes by state. Look for some coming shifts in this map as the recession cum depression deepens. I think that the steepest declines in come will be on the coasts and in The Rust Belt. But a lot of my Recommended Retreat Areas may do better.

From Krys W.: US credit shrinks at Great Depression rate prompting fears of double-dip recession

Items from The Economatrix:

Money Market Funds No Longer Guaranteed. “… the US Government will no longer guarantee Money Market Funds. The key points are that the smart money is getting out of Money Market funds. Assets in these funds have declined by 15% in the last month. There is still $2 trillion in non-Treasury Money Market funds. Are you sure your Money Market fund is safe? The second and more important point is that the Treasury is trying to force this money into the biggest banks. Let’s not let that happen. If you withdraw your money, put it in a local credit union or small bank in your community. But of course be sure to first check that institution’s safety rating.

Peter Schiff Says Deflation Will Be BIG…when you measure it in gold

Foreign Demand For Long-Term US Securities Fall

Unemployment in Industrial World to Hit New High


Mortgage Problems are Walloping Americans’ Credit Scores

Could China Propel Gold to $2,000?

“It Is Dangerous to Think the Financial Crisis is Already Behind Us”


Garfield Gets It
(The Mogambo Guru)

US Credit Card Defaults Up, Signals Consumer Stress


Which Crisis?



Odds ‘n Sods:

A reader mentioned a new web site that is worth a look: The Biblical View of Self-Defense

   o o o

Andrew D. suggested this from Popular Mechanics: Off-the-Grid Living – Self Reliance Through Home Solar and Wind Power and Farming

   o o o

FG flagged this: Sheriff’s Department Responds to Sonic Device Outrage. Another article notes ” The device was stationed by San Diego County Sheriff deputies at a recent town hall forum hosted by Congresswoman Susan Davis (D-San Diego) in Spring Valley and at a subsequent town hall with Congressman Darrell Issa (R-San Diego).” [JWR’s comment: I guess that tasering folks one at a time was deemed inefficient. There is nothing quite like watching an entire crowd in symphonious agony. Joe Stalin would be proud.]

   o o o

Paul G. suggested this Treehugger article: Travel By Rail In Style on a RailRider. (Please take a few minutes to review the extant SurvivalBlog articles and letters on this topic, such as this one from 2007, especially the safety warnings.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Associate yourself with men of good quality, if you esteem your own reputation; for it is better to be alone than in bad company.” – George Washington, Rules of Civility and Decent Behavior #56



Note from JWR:

Thanks for all of your prayers, in our family’s time of profound grief. I’m presently doing my best to cope, but I’m still in the “bouts of sobbing” stage. If it were not for the certain knowledge that Linda (my late wife) is in heaven, and awaits reunion with all of Christ’s elect, then I’d be totally distraught.

Today we present another entry for Round 24 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. It was written by a US Border Patrol agent.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) and C.)A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.)

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 24 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Bug Out and Refugee Considerations, by Brad T.

I’d like to shed some light on what it might be like to move across an unfamiliar area without money or adequate supplies. This might come in handy when you have to bug out following a natural disaster or other societal disruption. It might provide tips on how to avoid apprehension or detection while traveling. In addition, it might help you in determining a place for your retreat and anticipating refugees. Finally it might prepare you for some of the emotional and physical stresses you will face if you find yourself bugging out.

I live on the US Mexico border and there is a constant flow of illegal aliens and drug smugglers passing through and around my city. I live in the busiest area for smuggling drugs and people in the United States. Being a Border Patrol agent I also have up to date information on the trends and tactics illegal aliens and drug smugglers use to avoid detection and move to the interior of the United States. I have also tracked and apprehended countless groups of illegal aliens and drug smugglers. I will try to pass on some of my knowledge of how these people move from Mexico to the United States.

Most illegal aliens are extremely poor and are willing to walk through the desert for days or weeks, sometimes with small children. There are exceptions to this; most of these are drug smugglers. They have plenty of money, support vehicles, scouts and communication equipment. My focus in this article will be aliens that jump the fence and walk across the desert.

They mostly move at night without flashlights. During the day they sleep in clumps of trees or rocks or in caves. They seldom travel alone. Most are in groups of two to twenty. The guides have developed networks of trails and hiding spots to move through the desert. Some larger groups have several guides with one or more on a high ridge top to provide information about the movements of the Border Patrol or other people that will inform law enforcement of their location. The guides use cell phones or two way radios to communicate. They guide their groups to water in cattle tanks or streams. The groups can go for days without eating. When we apprehend a group in is common for them to tell us about dead bodies they passed on their way. They also tell us of injured or sick aliens that were left behind. Most of the apprehended aliens ask for food and water right away. When we give them food they eat ravenously.

In most cases the guides follow natural and manmade landmarks. The most obvious are game trails and dirt roads. They also follow canyons, natural gas lines, electrical power lines, railroad tracks, rivers and fence lines. For example a group will travel 50 yards off to the side of railroad tracks in thick brush. (This might be a factor to consider when choosing a retreat location. You don’t want groups of refugees traveling near your retreat because they are following railroad tracks or electrical power lines.) They seldom travel on high ridges because our cameras and radar will pick up their movements. They usually walk down trails with thick trees and bushes providing cover. They like to move through deep canyons with sandy washes at the bottom. Many trails military crest ridges where our cameras cannot see. When they must travel through flat open areas they might wait for hours until all the Border Patrol vehicles clear from the area before they continue.

During the summer they travel at night because it is cooler. If they have enough water they will continue during the day and only stop when they absolutely have to sleep or if they get heat exhaustion. Heat exhaustion affects your judgment and can lead to heat stroke and death very quickly. The best way to prevent this is to get out of the heat, drink plenty of water and reduce your physical activity. For some reason people with heat exhaustion remove their shoes. It does not occur to them to drink the rest of their water. I once found an alien under a tree nearly dead with a full bottle of water. When EMS arrived they had to give him four IV bags before he finally had to pee. It just shows how heat exhaustion can affect your judgment. Another time we found an alien sitting up with his legs crossed in the middle of a paved road with his shoes removed. He died sitting there waiting for a car to come rescue him. He probably did not realize that the blacktop in the sun is one of the hottest places for him to stop.

During the winter they walk at night because it is too cold to sit still. When there is no cloud cover the temperature can drop well below freezing. We use long range FLIR cameras and thermal imaging to locate groups. These cameras show small changes in temperature and you can actually see the cold air collected in valleys on still nights. A cow or rabbit shows up as a bright white spot on the screen because it is so warm compared to the surroundings. When groups stop on cold nights they usually stop at the military crest of a hill because the air is warmer at the top of a hill. During the day they sleep in areas hidden by trees and bushes. They huddle together to keep warm and many of the women get raped or assaulted. We find the “lay-ups” littered with empty food containers, water bottles, clothing and backpacks. There are some lay-ups that are so filled with junk it looks like you stumbled onto a landfill. This is also a common area to find dead bodies.

Part of my job is to search apprehended aliens for weapons or drugs. I have noticed they all carry the same items with very little variance. They are all wearing two or more pairs of pants and several shirts. I assume this is to avoid stickers and thorns and to keep warm. In the winter they have three or more pairs of pants and long sleeve shirts, sweatshirts and beanie caps. Their clothing is almost always dark colored. Most of the clothing is cotton and is very worn out. I have never caught an alien wearing Gore-tex or down. I can count on one hand the number of aliens I have caught wearing gloves.

Some of them have backpacks with meager supplies of food and water. The food is usually tortillas, bread and sometimes canned food. I have also seen quite a few aliens with Pedialyte. Other items include a cigarette lighter, plastic bag with raw garlic, identification cards, money and toilet paper. I am not sure what the garlic if for, maybe to keep mosquitoes away. When I ask them they usually just shrug and say they eat it. Some carry religious articles like rosary necklaces or virgin Guadalupe candles. This always amazes me they would carry a 2-pound candle for miles when they could have packed more food or water. Other items I find but not as often include cell phones, kitchen knives, medicine and pictures of family members. I have never found a flashlight, multi-tool, compass, GPS, duct tape or other items usually associated with a bug out bag. Most of the backpacks are very poor quality with one or more zippers broken. You would be amazed at how they patch, wire and tie backpacks closed when the zippers break.

The water containers you could find at a gas station, anywhere from quart to gallon size. If the aliens do not have a backpack they carry the bottles in their hands. Sometimes they tie two of them together and sling them over their shoulder. Some of the water bottles are painted flat black so they cannot be seen at a distance. If I catch the group far enough north where they have refilled their bottles from tanks or streams the water is very dirty. I don’t think they have the time or perhaps even the knowledge to filter it through a shirt. I have actually seen tadpoles and small water creatures swimming in water bottles of apprehended aliens.

One thing I will never get used to is the smell of twenty people that have traveled a week through the desert without a shower. I have located and apprehended a group at night using only my sense of smell. I am not joking. When we pile them in our transport vans the smell is overwhelming.

Most of them are dehydrated and most have cuts and scratches. By the time we catch them the cuts are infected. I once chased a group through a field of jumping cholla [cactus] at night. When I caught them they were covered in cactus spines. They had no tools to remove the spines so they were using fingers and teeth to try to remove them. Twisted and broken ankles are also common. Many of the women are pregnant. If they can get into the United States to have their children then those kids will be United States citizens.

It is amazing how many husbands leave their wives and children behind when their group gets chased by Border Patrol. The hardest thing to see is finding small children that were left behind. One day we found a six year old boy wandering through the desert because he became separated from his mom the night before. If was cannot find the parents the children are returned to Mexico and will end up in an orphanage. This kind of thing happens almost every day.

Another time we found a guy wandering around and he was almost delirious. He could barley talk and looked dazed. When we finally got him back to our station he did not want to eat or drink. He just sat on a bench and stared at the ground. He later told us that a week earlier he paid a guide to get him and his wife and three year old daughter into the United States. Once he crossed the border the guide hit him on the head and disappeared with his wife and daughter. He had spent the following week wandering around looking for his wife and daughter. I think that under such circumstances I would be a wreck too.

Some of the lessons I have learned from them: You can do much more than you think you can with much less. Using guides in unfamiliar areas is very valuable to avoid detection but don’t trust them. Also carry basic medical supplies and drink plenty of water to avoid dehydration. Finally don’t waste your money and time on useless items. If you have never hiked a trail at night without a flashlight you need to try it. It is amazing how much you can see and hear when hiking at night. Stop frequently and listen for 30 seconds at a time. One night I heard a noise that was over 30 yards away from me. I judged by the amount of noise it was a group of people. I went over to investigate and was surprised to find a slow moving tortoise walking over dry leaves. It is amazing how much sound a person walking makes.

I also have learned by experience that certain pieces of gear are essential for my job. Some of these I would discard if I was traveling cross country in a bug out scenario. I think weight would be the primary factor. When I go out in the field I always wear gloves to avoid scratches and cuts on my hands. I also wear eye protection, even at night. I once saw an alien that had his eye jabbed by a branch at night. It was horrible. I almost always have scratches on my face from walking down trails with thorns and branches coming across the path. I never use a flashlight unless I am tracking, and then it is only briefly. I carry small electrolyte packets with me and plenty of water. I wear long sleeve shirts. I also carry a GPS receiver, electrical tape, pocket knife and plenty of extra ammunition.



Economics and Investing:

U.N. calls for replacement of U.S. dollar; Joins Russia, China and G20 with demands IMF step forward (Thanks to Laura H. for the link.)

Reader John M. suggested a Market-Ticker link that clearly describes the urgency of the financial situation: Warning: Deflationary Collapse Ahead.

Items from The Economatrix:

Derivatives Still Pose Huge Risk, BIS Says

How the Collapse of Lehman Bros. Averted a Second Depression

Geithner Exaggerates US Government Retreat

Natural Gas Prices Spike 12% (Even with warehouse tanks bulging!)

Stocks Subdued Amid US-China Trade Tension

Wall Street Crisis One Year Later: Lehman, WaMu Lead List of Biggest Bankruptcies

Wall Street Math Wizards Forgot a Few Variables

Cautiously, Small Investors Edge Back Into Stocks [JWR’s comment: A more accurate headline would be: Lemming-like, Small Investors Edge Back Into Stocks ]

Job Market Outlook: When Will Companies Start Hiring?

Stiglitz Says Banking Problems are Not Bigger than Pre-Lehman

R.I.P. Zimbabwe Dollar

US Tire Duties Spark Clash with China



Odds ‘n Sods:

Tamara (of the always entertaining View From The Porch blog), linked to this: The Plow, The Surplus, and The Idiot. Don’t you know how cruel honey is, people? [Sarcasm Mode On: “Oh, those poor imprisoned bees! And wool? Totally cruel, like, all those poor cuddly sheeps and sheeplings, all senselessly slaughtered just for their wool coats. You know, we should just think of them as taller baby fur seals. The barbarity of wool harvesting must be stopped. The world would be a better place., Oh, and Naugahyde, too. All those little Naugas, butchered for their hides, by greedy, cruel capitalists!” And please don’t tell this woman that tofu actually comes from Ostrich eggs, or she’ll starve to death. Sarcasm Mode Off.]

   o o o

FG sent this: British Special Forces training Libyan troops. (FG’s comment on the politicians that orchestrated this travesty: “Galactic Level Stupidity”). JWR’s comment: First we hear that the Lockerbie bombing’s mastermind was set free from prison and returned to Libya to a hero’s welcome. And now this. Clearly, there must have been some backroom deals made with The Coiffured Colonel that have not yet been made public.

   o o o

Reader J.K. asks: Can it work here in the US? Home power plants project unveiled in Germany.





Notes from JWR:

Most of today’s blog content again comes courtesy of Cheryl. Thanks, Cheryl!

Don’t miss my note about Michael Yon’s blog, down in the Odds ‘n Sods section.





Economics and Investing:

Wow! Take a look at the latest market tickers for spot silver and spot gold. We might soon witness some profit-taking that could temporarily drive silver back to the $12 per ounce range. But consider that a buying opportunity. The next leg up will probably be in November, when The Chartist Gnome predicts silver over $18 per ounce and gold over $1,070. For those that already have bought metals: Do not attempt to “time” such a volatile market. Just hang on, and as the Gnome says, “Be ready for a roller coaster.”

Items from The Economatrix:

The Ghost Fleet of the Recession (Also suggested by several other SurvivalBlog readers.)

Airline Trade Group Predicts 2009 Loss of $11 Billion

Gold Falls as Speculative Holdings Reach Record, Dollar Climbs

Gold Investors Warned to Liquidate After Buying Frenzy

Moodys: UK Banks to Post $215 Billion in New Losses

Darryl Schoon: Greenback Gases, Gold and the Coming Shift