Letter Re: A German Army Think Tank Sees Dire Consequences for Peak Oil

Hello Mr. Rawles,
A report on the political and economical impacts of Peak Oil by a think tank of the German Army was recently leaked to the Internet. It is, of course, in German. The think tank draws pretty drastic conclusions. I currently do not have the time to translate the essence of it, but this might be useful or interesting at least to your readers who are fluent in German.

Here is a summary: Bundeswehr-Studie warnt vor dramatischer Ölkrise, [also in German] by Der Spiegel.

Kind regards, – Chris K. in Germany

JWR Replies: Thanks for alerting us to that article. Here is a link to a very rough automated English translation: Bundeswehr study warns of dramatic oil crisis.



Economics and Investing:

Bernanke: Fed Will Take “Unconventional Measures” If Needed. “…the Fed will consider making another large-scale purchase of securities if the slowing economy were to deteriorate significantly and signs of deflation were to flare.” (A hat tip to Deborah M. for the link.)

Its Official: China is Unloading its Treasury Bonds

John Williams of ShadowStats Says Economic Data Will Get Much Worse.

Trapper Mike sent this: Ron Paul questions whether there’s gold at Fort Knox, New York Fed. To clarify, part of his concern is that physical gold may indeed be stored there, but that it might actually belong to other parties!

Items from The Economatrix:

Government Set to Confirm What Many Feel: Economy at a Standstill

Stocks End a Brutal August with Meager Gains

Snapshot of an Economy About to Get a Lot Bleaker

Youth Employment Lowest Since 1948

Fed Seeks Delay of Bank Data Release

US Warned by S&P its AAA Credit Rating at Risk

Democrats Face Economic Facts: Updraft Unlikely



Inflation Watch:

In 2008, shortly before the currency was effectively abandoned, the inflation rate in Zimbabwe hit a ludicrous inconceivable 897,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 percent per year. (An 89 sextillion percent inflation rate!) So now instead of Zim dollars for practical currency, they are using the South African Rand, the Botswana Pula, the British Pound Sterling and the United States Dollar for most transactions. It will be ironic, if and when the US Dollar begins to inflate. Like us, Zimbabweans may soon feel “stuck”, holding withering US Dollars. OBTW, some bad news from Zimbabwe, that came to us by way of Cathy Buckle’s blog: “Enter into all of this the pending compulsory 51% indigenous shareholding of companies and the waves start flooding in over the edge of the floundering boat. Last weekend the Indigenisation and Empowerment Minister, Saviour Kasukuwere, threatened to close down 9,000 companies because they hadn’t yet submitted indigenisation plans to his ministry. Apparently only 480 out of 9, 557 companies had put in the paperwork that effectively gives control of their companies to complete strangers.”

Reader Gina A. wrote to mention that the cost of her prescriptions medicines (some of them fairly exotic) had skyrocketed in the past 18 months. She asked for some solutions. My advice? Read this book: 101 Ways to Save Money on Health Care.

Carla P. notes: “I usually watch the sale papers when buying groceries. I noticed a great price at one of our stores for one of the major brands of peanut butter: $1.39. The trouble is, the jar had gone from an 18 oz. size to a 16.3 oz. size. About a 10% decrease.”

SurvivalBlog reader “Booth” chided me for harping about inflation, when the government’s key inflation figure–the Consumer Price Index (CPI)–is currently at just 1.94% (in figures calculated through June, 2010). The problem with the CPI is that it is so heavily manipulated that it has hardly any useful meaning. The methodologies used for calculating the CPI are fundamentally flawed. For example, it uses hedonic “adjustments” to the price measures to “allow for quality changes.” For some details, see the analyses by economist John Williams (of ShadowStats) and Barry Ritholtz. In my estimation, the real rate of cost of living inflation in the US is somewhere north of 5%. And if you are saying to yourself, “Well, 5% isn’t so bad”, then consider the Rule of 72. At 5% currency inflation, you are robbed of half of your purchasing power every 14.4 years. So it is no wonder that so few people now keep money in banks in passbook savings accounts. Those provide a negative rate of return, when you consider the real world inflation rate. Inflation is orchestrated theft and a hidden form of taxation, plain and simple.



Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader Kevin J. mentioned this opinion piece: Looters and the lessons of Katrina. It has some typical liberal hand-wringing, but it is nonetheless a thought-provoking piece.
|
   o o o

D.T.D. pointed us to this interesting article: Man has lived without money since 2008. Apparently, he also swore off wearing shirts.

   o o o

Cheryl N. suggested this essay: Collapse Survival Will Be Tribal: Begin Recruiting Now

   o o o

Did you ever wonder why you might want to add a .50 BMG rifle to your battery? Watch this.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“If the representatives of the people betray their constituents, there is then no resource left but in the exertion of that original right of self-defense which is paramount to all positive forms of government, and which against the usurpations of the national rulers may be exerted with infinitely better prospect of success, than against those of the rulers of an individual State. In a single State, if the persons intrusted with supreme power become usurpers, the different parcels, subdivisions, or districts of which it consists, having no distinct government in each, can take no regular measures for defense. The citizens must rush tumultuously to arms, without concert, without system, without resource; except in their courage and despair.” – Alexander Hamilton, a.k.a. Publius, The Federalist Papers, Number 28.



Notes from JWR:

Did you ever feel as if you predicted the future? Read this: Investors Head for Bunkers, Driving Up ‘Shelter Shares’. Here is key quote: “If it’s the end of the world, what do you buy? Canned foods, guns and the generators,” said Keith Springer, president of Capital Financial Advisory Services. “There are a huge number of people who feel this is the end of the world.”

To stay ahead of the next market trend, my advice is to move out of dollar-denominated investments and into tangibles, such as productive farm land, guns, ammo, and precious metals.

Today we present another entry for Round 30 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Parabellum (Luger ) with 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP projectiles, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo (a $249 value), and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $400, and B.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing, and B.) a Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.)

Round 30 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Planning for Extra Mouths to Feed, by D.V.

As a regular reader of SurvivalBlog, I have found a fountain of information to be gleaned from the many great writings posted on here and wanted to quickly say thank you to all those who write in with their thoughts and experiences. 

What I wanted to share was something that I experienced recently.  I found in all my prepping and plans something I had not realistically considered.  I have considered the possibility of many scenarios for a long time but I think it has been in just the past few years that I have felt that things are rather precarious.   I guess one of the biggest things to influence me was my Grandmother, she would tell me stories of the Great depression and how the family managed to get by during the “lean years”.   Keeping her words and stories close to my heart I began more recently to really get my preps in line.  I have a very rural retreat property that someday I hope I can move to but in the mean time, I try to keep things on track here at home.  I have a small farm and I think it is coming along nicely toward being self sufficient but I actually feel we live a bit too close to a big city for me to view it as the retreat I would like it to be.  We raise chickens and goats and have a nice garden that I can most of the things out of it.  I put up a pretty nice amount of stored food. 
I thought I had already taken into consideration many scenarios and issues that might arise during tough times including family and close friends that might appear on my door step in an emergency, and while; some I am certain will come with some supplies, there are others… they are the scoffers that would undoubtedly show up just in time knowing we were prepared.  I thought I had covered all of this with my calculations and figures.   I thought about those I know and who would travel a great distance to arrive here and how much food would need to be stored.  I have lots of calculators to tell me how much of what I would need to sustain these extra people and I was seriously thinking I was in pretty good shape as far as being on a good track.
Until a few months ago, when all of a sudden we had a house full of people, all of whom were unemployed which meant they brought into the house little to nothing in the way of help for food, utilities or even in some cases labor around the farm. 

The first few weeks we would just make due and I would make what I could for meals with much of what I had here in the house augmented by frequent trips to the grocery.  Even still it was difficult to keep food on the shelves, things started to get sparse real fast and much to my chagrin I found that my preps were suffering under the strain of the added mouths to feed, Not only  could I no longer afford to add to my preps but they were dwindling at an amazing rate.  But the most frightening thought that came to me was if it all went this quickly all the while augmenting our needs with grocery store runs, what would happen when we could no longer do this? When there was nothing to be had at the grocery store?   This thought was very troubling for me and I began to feel woefully unprepared and foolish at thinking that this could be so easily a task to prepare for.  I found that this issue is much more complex than just putting up a few extra things for the unexpected house guest.

In my panic at watching my years of work disappear right before my eyes, I began to ferret away supplies to other parts of the house, I had a trunk which held my wedding gown for years, I moved the gown to a box and this trunk now became my new food storage area, my bedroom closet now held my liquor cabinet and ammo and even behind books on the bookshelf you might find a can of soup or box of Jell-O.  I at that moment realized the “why” of having some caches, I recalled that I had read in Alas, Babylon by Pat Frank. The protagonist, Randy Bragg, had put away a trunk full of things and this motivated me to think more about how to put up these “Extra” things.  So as I began my hide and seek with food stuffs, I began to try to put things into these places but now with a clear organizational pattern.   I considered what each person was doing to contribute to the house  but when I spoke with our “guests” about our feelings with regards to the current state of things and the need for them to pitch in even if it were to only weed the garden, it turned out that often times they would scoff at our “doom and gloom” and avoid us or turn up missing when it was work time, but they never failed to be present when it was dinner time or when it came time for us to go to bed.  This is when they would “raid” the cupboard, which is how I discovered what was happening to the food.  There were a number of offenders that would pilfer from the cabinets when everyone was sleeping.  This brought me to my next realization, that you can’t expect that these guests will be honest.   If someone feels like they are not getting enough they will steal it.   I first thought I should lock the cupboards but that is so harsh.  It was then that I decided I would simply keep it all out of the cupboards and pull out what I needed as I needed it.  Having experienced this I have decided to permanently keep most of my food preps in stashes about the house noting the date the stash was established and in using these would completely empty the stash into the cupboard and replenish with a new date (rotating the food in larger quantities).  This is actually working well as I replenish an entire week or two’s  worth of food in an instant and it is just part of my regular shopping (which always includes a few extra of this or that as well) but now as I shop, I take all that I just purchased to the trunk or box, remove the contents of the cache and insert the “new” groceries and place the cached items on the pantry shelf, I then note the date of the switch and move the cache to the bottom of the list.

Add to all of this the little idiosyncrasies that come with cohabitation.  If you can, just imagine how annoyed I was that a whole roll of toilet paper that was used by only two people took only a matter of a day or two to disappear, I began to wonder what they are doing with it.  Eating it? Thankfully No, but  I came to find that my son’s girlfriend was using it to take off nail polish, makeup, wipe the sink off and anything else she wanted to wipe or dab.  Before I had even realized it twelve big packages of toilet paper were missing!  All I could think was: “Have any of you ever heard of a rag?”

This is but a small example of the usage and the lack of knowledge, but there are other things to ponder that we never thought of until it was staring us right in the face.  Like the septic system, ours, which is okay for about 4 people could not sustain with 9.  We were selling eggs from our 35 chickens but now we could not keep enough eggs in the house for some reason, all of these things made me think of the resources and strain additional people bring into the picture.

 Where this brought me was the realization that while one might think about the thief that comes to take your preps after the SHTF, whom we would of course promptly run off with our defenses.  And this is because we have taken a good bit of time thinking about how to keep these unsavory types out and how to keep our location safest.  But, how do we deal with freeloader family members?  The ones that show up on your door step tattered and sad looking, who will it be?   Your brother?  Your mother?   Your child?  These people will assume you have it all going on and will be looking to you to “fix” things for them. 
At some point in all this it dawned on me that this is a lesson I am to learn, that in all likelihood this is something that not might happen but will happen.  We will be overrun with friends and family that will be looking for what they view as salvation.  Granted there will be those who show up and you are glad to see because you know they will be less of an inconvenience and more of an asset.  But really, do any of us think that if our freeloader child shows up we will turn them away?  How could we?  So now what do we do with this dead weight?  Not to mention that after reading “Patriots by James Wesley, Rawles, I and few others realized that a group of like minded individuals would better weather such storms than those going it alone.  Well now, what is the rest of the group going to think of your freeloader relative?

I have taken some time to think these things through and a few conclusions came with amazing clarity.  First, I have discovered that, no, I do not believe that I or my fellow group members could turn away family.  So I began to think about how to handle the “freeloader”.  And a verse from 2nd Thessalonians comes to mind, from the New International Version Bible: For even when we were with you, we gave you this rule: “If a man will not work, he shall not eat.”  (2 Thessalonians 3:10.) Going on that premise, I began a chore list where each person had chores to do each day, everyone was assigned a laundry day (which incidentally we removed the washer from the septic to a gray water area that we used to irrigate the garden) if a person failed to be bothered with laundry that day you were to either go dirty or go to the laundry mat.  Everyone had indoor chores as well as farm chores and this really made a difference in my irritation levels.  I would cook a generous meal we would all sit at and eat and then at the end of the day, everyone was locked out!!  Okay, okay I know this sounds awful, but we have the extra bedrooms in the basement which has a separate entrance and bathroom so they were only locked out of the kitchen, thus prevented the pilfering during the night.

It was amazing how quickly they began to get jobs and even moved out. Since this time I have thought about how to accommodate these people without alienating others in our group that will help to establish a set rule when it comes to the dynamics of a group and how to handle these unexpected persons.
|
We discussed ways to assign levels to each grouping of individuals that would best accommodate these people and the needs of the group while maintaining a clear hierarchy or chain of command.  Which I believe is important not only for the smooth running of things but also for each person to understand their role in things (no need for the alpha male or female instinct to take over).  While it is a bit cut and dry and I think in need of more work as there is always the exceptions to these things, here is what we are doing to best outline these persons, their needs and what they can offer in such times.
Level 1: the operations level this level is our main group!  These people have been working on our preps and skills for some time and are the ones with supplies and a specific skill set.  These people are the ones that we chat with, work with and plan with for the inevitability of SHTF.  Each person in this level has a clear idea of their role and expectations in the eventuality of bad days.   No expectation need be set.

  • The property owner
  • The skilled expert

Level 2: this level is the persons that have not actually become part of the group but are still well ahead of the curve with their preps and needed skills.  Each person in this level is most likely the “go-it-aloner” who did not want to get together, but found that for any number of reasons they need to ally themselves with a group.  While these people will most likely be an asset a skills assessment and work allotment will be necessary.

  • Family member with skill & prep
  • Other persons with skill and prep

Level 3: This level is the persons that show up with either some kind of preps or skills but not typically both, minimal need or very willing to work.  Each person in this level has something they can offer even if it is to weed the garden and while a family member will be given preference, there are no guarantees the other persons can be accommodated or integrated.

  • Family member
  • Other persons

Level 4: comes knocking with neither skills nor preps but is family, this person is typically the freeloader and will not work or offer anything.  While I believe it is necessary to do for ones family, it will also be the family members that must pick up any slack or share their food and things with this person.

Level 5: comes knocking with neither skills nor preps  – a refugee (frankly this level, would most likely be sent on their way with a couple of cans of food and some water. )

Each person will need to be assessed to determine where they can best fit in with the group and if they want to eat they will work. Anyone can weed a garden.  Everything is to be done using the level system.  However you choose to utilize it, the insurance that those who “show up” will do their share is important to the whole group, no one wants to just give away their hard work and will resent it if they have to especially if it is not even their family. 

I found that while we had our “guests” visiting there were some things that I could recognize as qualities that would be useful, my other son’s Girlfriend could eat more than anyone I had ever seen before in my life and was sneaking food all the time and this was profoundly distressing for me, however I began to see she loved to work in the garden, tending it fastidiously.  Once I locked up the food I began to see her as an asset more than a liability.  I believe that everyone can pull their own weight if they have to but I would hate to have my sister arrive on the door step with family in tow barking out demands to someone simply because her family owns the land.  With a system that clearly defines a role of each person, each person can be a useful integral part of the community without the strife the can often follow!



Letter Re: Ecuador’s Uplands as a Retreat Option

Dear Jim:

Amid decisions about planning to weather the storm after TSHTF I see people dangerously narrowing their strategy options. They are putting all their eggs in one basket when conditions could require them to abandon those plans. The typical options are flight, fortress, and community and any of the three could wind up being best… or worst! Let me share a few thoughts on the flight option.

Flight usually involves bug-out bags, bug-out vehicles, defensive armaments, haste, maybe stealth, with hopefully one or more pre-stocked destinations. But what if a hazard has affected a huge region, making your pre-stocked bug-out location unusable? What if the entire hemisphere becomes too dangerous?

I bought land in Ecuador that I could flee to if needed. At 25 acres for $5,500 it was feasible for someone of very modest income. Besides being some distance from home it has good survival potential: plenty of rainfall, perfect temperature range at 6,500 ft. elevation (no heating or cooling season), year-round growing season, low population density, self-sufficient neighbors, above the tropical diseases and poisonous snakes of the Amazonian lowlands, rivers teeming with trout, good streams for hydro-power, small government, no building permits required for the countryside, almost negligible property taxes, peaceful changes in government. You can see the possibilities.

I recommend having pre-stocked bug out locations nearby, even for those who are full-time residents on a survival retreat property, as well as distant retreats in some other part of the world. Be prepared to leave at all times. My passport and other needed travel items are part of my every-day-carry kit.

What if you are suddenly driven from your home by fire, home invaders, or other calamity and you have nothing but your pajamas, slippers, and maybe a jacket? What if civil order has broken down and there is no-one you can turn to for help? In that case you would be well served by one or more secure buried caches, giving you what you need to bug out, shelter, clothe, and feed yourself, as well as a weapon or two. I chose the buried, large-diameter, hermetically sealed PVC tube with heat-sealed Mylar liners for my buried caches. I buried them away from my house but within easy walking distance, using as much stealth as possible to avoid being seen and to avoid leaving tell-tale traces of my activity. Another use I have yet to employ: a string of small food and water re-supply caches en route to my bug-out destination in case I need to make the week-long trek by foot.

A network of buried caches would enable the owner periodic access to food, ammo, etc. while appearing to have little worth stealing. This could be the ticket to escaping plunder by roving gangs or government during the first year or so of violence following a full-blown SHTF event. There are many possible approaches and anyone handy in the workshop can fashion suitable buried cache containers. Those without the time or ability can buy various-sized pressure-tested cache tubes online through SafeCastle, a trusted SurvivalBlog advertiser. – J. in New Hampshire



Letter Re: Sticking to Accepted Building Standards

Dear Jim and Family,
I can understand why [the gentleman that writes Laptop and Rifle, a blog recently mentioned in SurvivalBlog] should go forthrightly into the wilderness this way. Its taking control of his life, with his own hands. But it is a pity that some important stuff got overlooked. There’s a wonderful (and necessary) book called the “Uniform Building Code” (UBC) that all contractors know and love as their bible of legal building laws, which also happen to be good engineering. The google programmer is doing the equivalent of writing bad code by ignoring this book. His second hut has no poured concrete footing, so the first time it rains, its going to sink/tilt and no longer be level. Considering the area he’s building is heavily volcanic, the soil will also be composed of swelling clay, which means its also going to tear apart his concrete block foundation, something it would also do to a poured concrete footing. In that territory, you have to build in spring after heavy rains or water down the site for 30 days in order to allow the clay to swell to saturation. Thus, once the foundation is poured the concrete is put under compression, the only way its physically strong. Most homes in California are built this way due to the common prevalence of swelling clay soil that formed subsequent to the lengthy volcanic system that predated the San Andreas fault line. If he’d asked the county building department in Chico, he’d know that. Or ditto if he had just looked it up with a web search. Cheers, – InyoKern



Letter Re: Hurricane Earl Headed for U.S. East Coast

Hi Mr. Rawles.
I hope that everything is going well for you. You might want to pass this on to your readers. As of a couple of minutes ago, Janice Dean, the Weather Lady on the Fox News Channel, was discussing Hurricane Earl. They are urging all residents from the Outer Banks to the Canadian Maritimes to review their Hurricane Evacuation Routes and be ready to “Bug Out” within the next few days. Computer Modeling shows no weakening of the Hurricane, the only question is just how close Hurricane Earl will get to the Eastern Seaboard. God’s Blessings on you and yours, – “Bubblehead” Les



Economics and Investing:

S.C. flagged this: Policy Options Dwindle as Economic Fears Grow. S.C’s comment: “Wow, even the New York Times gets it!”

Chris P. sent this New York Times article: Housing Fades as a Means to Build Wealth.

G.G. sent this: S&P Says US Should Act to Protect AAA-Rating.

G.G. flagged Part 2 of Gonzalo Lira’s excellent essay: Hyperinflation, Part II: What It Will Look Like

My hero, Dr. Walter Williams comments: Avoiding the Looming Disaster of Social Security (Thanks to Don W. for the link.)

Sue C. sent this: Economy slows to 1.6 percent as trade gap widens

Items from The Economatrix:

Why US Treasury Notes Will Eventually Yield Nothing

Stocks Rise After 2Q GDP News, Bonds Slip

Consumer Spending Rises 0.4% In July

Stocks Drop as Investors Enter Week Cautiously

Gasoline Prices Fall Ahead of Labor Day Weekend

Bernanke Calls For Help to Revive The Stuttering US Economy

Joel Skousen: Inflation: What it Takes to Get There

Stock Markets Face “A Blood Bath,” Warns SocGen Strategist Albert Edwards

Jim Quinn: The Age of Mammon

Bancor: The Name of the Global Currency that a Shocking IMF Report is Proposing

Investors Embark on Treacherous Month

UK: Graduates Warned of Record 70 Applicants for Every Job. “Class of 2010 told to consider flipping burgers or shelf stacking to build skills as they also compete with last year’s graduates.”





Odds ‘n Sods:

Susan C. in Texas sent a link to a web site that has all sorts of mixes you can make yourself to save money. Susan notes: “Many of these mixes are healthier than store bought ones. OBTW, I find that these recipes call for too much salt.”

   o o o

The big sale at Ready Made Resources on Mountain House freeze-dried foods began last night, and runs for just one week. Don’t miss out!

   o o o

Reader N.I.M. sent this: H1N1: A Bullet, Dodged. Meanwhile, we read: XDR-pH1N1 Raises Pandemic Concerns

   o o o

Richard H. forwarded this link: Why You Need a Zombie Apocalypse Phone.





Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 30 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Parabellum (Luger ) with 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP projectiles, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo (a $249 value), and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $400, and B.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing, and B.) a Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.)

Round 30 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.