"A bone to the dog is not charity. Charity is the bone shared with the dog when you are just as hungry as the dog." – Jack London
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Note from JWR:
The preparedness movement is increasingly becoming a mainstream phenomenon. The latest evidence can be seen a recent post by Patrice Lewis at WorldNetDaily: Preparedness 101. Lewis is also the author of a regular blog that primarily covers self-sufficiency topics: Rural Revolution.
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Seeking Subject Matter Experts for the Second Patriots Sequel
The manuscript for the first sequel to my novel “Patriots” is now at Simon & Schuster, and should be published in around 13 months. (Deo Volente.) My sincere thanks to the SurvivalBlog readers that shared their expertise.
I’m now working on the second sequel. To give this upcoming novel the same authenticity as my first two, I would like to correspond via e-mail with:
- Anyone that has been stationed at Fort Knox, Kentucky in the past five years.
- Anyone that has lived in or near Bradfordsville, Kentucky.
- Anyone that has lived in or near Muddy Pond, Tennessee.
- Anyone that has lived in Butte County, South Dakota.
- Anyone that has lived in or near West Branch, Iowa.
- Anyone that has lived in or near Scottsbluff, Nebraska.
- Anyone that has lived in or near Morgan City, Utah.
- Anyone that has lived in or near Waterville, Vermont.
- Someone with tactical (field) experience with MLRS or ATACMS missile systems.
- An expert on cell phone jammers.
- A current or former UH-60 Blackhawk pilot.
- A current or former LGM-30 Minuteman III crew member–preferably in launch control at a silo complex.
- A current or former Trident FBM submariner.
Thanks!
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Shifting to Tangibles in an Age of Inflation
I’m often asked by my consulting clients why I put so much emphasis investing in tangibles rather than in traditional investments that are denominated in United States dollars. The problem with dollar-denominated investments is that they are vulnerable to inflation of the currency unit itself. The U.S. governments over-spending and deep indebtedness is bound to catch up with it someday. And when it does, inflation and economic ruin will be the result.
But there is protection from inflation. If the majority of you assets are in tangibles and they are in your immediate possession, then you will be insulated from the searing heat of mass inflation. And, in the event a total collapse of the dollar, many tangibles can be used in lieu of cash, for barter transactions.
Which tangibles? I recommend buying farm land, common caliber ammunition, guns, hand tools, good quality knives, silver bullion coins, and gold bullion coins.
To spell this out in greater detail, I recommend:
- Productive farm land that is in a lightly-populated region with plentiful water and rich topsoil.
- Factory made ammunition in common calibers (“ballistic wampum“) such as: 308, .30-06, .30-30, .223, .7.62×39, 12 Gauge, .22 Long Rifle (rimfire) .45 ACP, .40 S&W, and 9mm Parabellum (Luger). For your investment and barter stockpile, buy only name brands like Winchester, Remington, and Federal–and perhaps Hornady and CCI.
- High quality guns from name makers, chambered in common calibers. Good choices include M4geries, AR-15s, Steyr AUG-A3s, HK91 clones, HK93 clones, Galil Golanis, Ruger Mini-14s, FN-FAL clones, M1As, .308 Winchester bolt actions, Glock double column magazine pistols, XD pistols, Colt and Kimber M1911 .45 pistols, and Saiga 12 gauge shotguns.
- Well-made hand tools, with an emphasis on 19th Century technology tools, such as: shingle froes, scythes
, adzes, draw knives, axes
, crosscut saws
, and so forth. BTW, many other old-fashioned tools are available from Lehman’s.
- Well-made knives, such as: Swiss Army knives (of various models), CRKT
knives, and Cold Steel knives.
- Silver bullion coins should probably be 1 ounce or less. Either buy 1-ounce bullion “rounds” from a name brand supplier like Northwest Territorial Mint or Tulving, or pre-1965 circulated US. silver quarters from a company like AMPEX.
- Buy gold bullion coins only after you have secured at least 500 ounces of silver bullion coins. (Always prepare for a “disaster barter” situation first, and then move on to buying gold coins as a long term investment and inflation hedge.) In the U.S., I recommend buying only the most readily-recognizable gold bullion coins: American Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs and Krugerrands.
It is difficult to predict when substantial inflation will emerge in the United States. There are too many variables that cannot be predicted. Some of them are essentially political, such as debt monetization, currency pegs, bailout programs, and changes in tax laws. Just be watchful for signs of resumed inflation, and be ready to act swiftly to get the balance of your investments out of dollars.
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Letter Re: Australia’s New Nanny State Knife Ban
Dear Jim,
Welcome to the newer even bigger Nanny State here in Australia. Here is some information with regards to new national knife laws coming into force soon. ( I believe about six weeks ). For all your readers it will be of interest that the Australian Federal Government is going to ban all imports of the following: multitools, lockback folders such as Old Timer, Schrade etc, Swiss army knives, and Wenger army knives.
Never mind the fact that pocket knives and Swiss army knives have been used in Australia for over a century without trouble, but because of the explosion of knife attacks over the last few years, the responsible are being punished because of the idiots, first they disarmed us [of firearms], now they are going to the next level.
Of course the law sensible people won’t comply or even register with the new laws, but what happens when your Gerber or Leatherman multitool needs repairs in the USA? You may be able to send it out of Australia, but it will get confiscated on the return leg!
The New South Wales Police are now requesting the name and address of all bona fide collectors. (Next will be all the bigger knives such as Ka-Bar, CRKT, et cetera.) Please note the Australasian Knife Collectors (AKC) refused to comply with supplying to the authorities peoples’ names and addresses.
JWR Replies: Some Australians may consider this new law “the last straw”, and wisely choose to emigrate. Sadly, 99.99% of the population won’t. They will remain, like the proverbial frog in the soup pot.
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Economics and Investing:
Sue C. sent this: V-Shaped Recovery Dreams Evaporate
The U.S. housing market is still nowhere near the bottom: Record Number of Bank Seizures of U.S. Homes. (Thanks to Steve C. for the link.)
E.M.B. sent us this evidence that the banksters are in Desperation Mode: Fannie Mae Began Buying $1,000-Down Mortgages Without Approval
From Toby Connor of Gold Scents: Why Can’t Politicians Understand What is Really Happening?
Items from The Economatrix:
Swiss Institutions Ask: Where’s The Gold?
Real World Solutions to Economic Tyranny
Greenspan: Fiscal Stimulus Worked Far Less Than Expected
Would A Midterm Loss For Democrats Boost Stocks?
Americans Struggle to Regain their Shrunken Wealth
CitiGroup Shedding Student Loan Business
Good news, Peoria: Caterpillar Sales Accelerate Across the Globe.
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Inflation Watch:
G.G. flagged this: Look Around: There’s Major Commodity Inflation Happening Everywhere
A rush to buy tangibles: Argentines Say Buy Now as 25% Inflation Outlook Buoys Car Sales
Carla M. wrote: “I have been shopping thrift shops all my life and when we moved to our current location that didn’t change. What has changed is that for the past three years sewing patterns had been .25 each, but two weeks ago the price jump to .99 each. As a side note, I can buy sewing patterns new for .99 when they go on sale at the local fabric and crafts stores.”
A correction to a previously posted item: The Applegate Farms Organic Hot Dogs (mentioned by Reader L.C. in Inflation Watch on September 13th) did in fact go from 8 to 7 hot dogs per pack and remain at the same price, but what L.C. might not have realized is that while the new package contains only 7 hot dogs, it has remained the same weight as the 8 hot dog pack. The 12 ounce weight is now distributed among 7 hot dogs instead of 8, making each hot dog in the new pack 14% larger than before. My apologies for posting any dezinformatsaya.
Odds ‘n Sods:
Constitutionalist surge! SurvivalBlog readers in Montana should be aware that Steve Kendley’s election bid for county sheriff of Lake County now looks very promising. Despite his “campaign on a shoestring budget” Kendley is now favored to win. If you live in Lake County, then please show up and vote on election day. And all Montanans should consider making a campaign contribution (up to Montana’s $160 maximum). I hope that his election will encourage other Constitutionalists to run for sheriff! Oh, and speaking of Montana, don’t miss Pastor Chuck Baldwin’s latest piece on his family’s upcoming move up to the land of Big Sky Country Mud Flaps.
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This news story illustrates that the 911 system cannot be trusted to respond adequately to home invasions: Police wait too long to help – family dies. Be armed at all times!
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I just received a sample of the latest-generation Kelly Kettle (also sometimes called a Benghazi Boiler, in British Commonwealth countries), from the U.S. importer. It looks very well-made. I was half-expecting it to be made in China, but was delighted to see that it was made in the EU. I will post a review as soon as one of us here at the ranch has had a chance to test it.
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Safecastle Royal has started their last 25% off sale on Mountain House canned storage foods for 2010, with some free bonus items, depending on the size of your order. Safecastle also resumed stocking real canned butter, from Holland. Stock up!
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Jason M. sent this: 900 pound gator caught in South Carolina. There’s a lot of protein swimming around, down there!
Jim’s Quote of the Day:
"It is a proposition too plain to be contested, that the constitution controls any legislative act repugnant to it; or, that the legislature may alter the constitution by an ordinary act. All laws which are repugnant to the constitution are null and void." – Chief Justice John Marshall, in Marbury v. Madison, 1803
Note from JWR:
Today we present another entry for Round 30 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:
First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Parabellum (Luger ) with 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP projectiles, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo (a $249 value), and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).
Second Prize: A.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $400, and B.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).
Third Prize: A.) A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing, and B.) a Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.)
Round 30 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
What Am I Prepping For–And How, by T.N.T.
I started “officially” prepping about two years ago simply based on the way things were starting to turn bad with the economy and for fear that a real depression was coming. As I studied and read what other preppers were doing and the reasons they were prepping I came away with some useful knowledge and information that changed my perception of prepping.
My early experience found me gathering supplies helter-skelter and after several months I had no idea what else I might need to focus on. Back in my younger day from backpacking experience, I knew I could make some one pot stews, start a fire, and live in the great outdoors for a week or more. Just the same, that was a long time ago and I have much to learn. In my early prepping I gave no thought to medication, first-aid, or other essential things that are typically taken for granted but need to be a part of a real prep plan.
I found it wise to reevaluate from time to time the how’s and why’s of my prepping needs and priorities. What I mean is that as things change, it is important to know why I am prepping, how I am going about doing it, and if the anticipated event were to occur tomorrow, would I be ready enough to weather it out.
Then I have to ask myself, if an unanticipated event were to occur tomorrow would I even be close to ready for the event that I didn’t plan for. If the goal is to prep for a seventy two hour event as some government agencies recommend and a two week event occurred that would be a bad place to be.
With that in mind, I found it is useful to make a list of events which could likely occur that would cause a condition where I have to rely on the supplies that are stashed away. This list should include any possibility that it is believed could happen and then rate each item by the severity it might affect you and the likelihood that it could occur.
Much of this of course would be very speculative, but the list is for personal prep purposes. This should help set priorities on what supplies are most important and how much of each necessary item it may be wise to accumulate. An example would be if a flu pandemic is at or near the top of your list, then food, medicine, and sanitation supplies (including N95 respirators) are must have items. If you determine that for this event you would want to quarantine the household for maybe three to six weeks then you have a measure of how much stuff you might need.
If you realistically have a list of possible events with say five to ten items on it, then you can start preparing for the worst case scenario starting with the top item on your list and work your way down as you get that done i.e.; dollar collapse, pandemic, earthquake. You may find that once you prepare for the first item or two, you have the rest covered.
Of course I say this based on my own situation and your mileage may vary by a great distance. Personally, in my circumstance, living in a suburban setting with no real good rural retreat option, I don’t consider it necessary to have more then about six months of supplies. If any SHTF event that is considered worse then a few months of Schumer flying past that whirly device, it may be next to impossible to protect. In that type scenario, within just a week or two the Golden Horde will be out in hungry force and it will be like the “Return of the Zombies”. Defense of course is a key component for any prepper, but without a group of armed and prepped neighbors to help defend the suburban castle, a family would be quickly overrun or simply burned out. In a grid-down condition, it would be just a few days before the first visitors looking for handouts will very likely by the unprepared that live near by. It would only go downhill from there, but I digress.
With an honest and real evaluation, you will now have a good idea of what and how much in the way of supplies you want to have on hand. Next you need to determine if your prep plan is realistic and doable. For example, what if I have an EMP attack near the top of my list? What if I had it listed with a high probability of occurring and expect that it will affect the entire country with a grid down time of two to seven years?
For that situation, I would want to be out in the boonies in a fortified underground bunker with enough food and other resources to last at least five years and a good source of water available. Not to mention a well supplied and heavily armed group of dedicated defenders to keep it secure. Of course in reality, I would not be able to do this based on my current responsibilities and financial resources. I’m fairly certain that at least ninety five percent of the population is in a similar posture.
The point is that you can only do what you can do but it’s best to be realistic while doing it. At the top of my list is the collapse of the US dollar. A pandemic or other natural disaster such as an earthquake and a terrorist attack (false flag) are also high on my list. These are things that I can realistically prepare for in my suburban setting; at least to some degree.
If something thing worse were to come along (EMP, CME, comet hit) at least there could be survival for the early stages but in my view, the average person can’t be ready for these extreme events. This is not to discourage anyone from prepping for worst case scenarios but these type events would most likely result in a “Mad Max” scenario in short order.
The main point is that you should determine what situation you are prepping for. Prioritize the list of items that are needed and start stocking up. As you make progress, reevaluate from time to time and make sure that it’s not all beans and bullets stashed away.
Start with priorities such as water (including filtration and storage), and of course food. Then add the hygiene and sanitary supplies, first-aid, medicine, vitamins, money (silver, gold), security and branch it off from there based on any of the umpteen lists that are out there. Be sure to include in your budget firearms training as a part of your security. In my view if you go to all the time and expense of prepping you better know how to defend it if it comes to that, but that is just me.
I suggest that you work on the list of critical supplies in two week intervals. This is just to avoid blowing the entire monthly budget stockpiling just one item. This would be especially true if you are in the early stages of prepping. Hopefully this will ensure that if an event occurred you aren’t stuck with just rice and tuna to eat but have no water, toilet paper, or sanitary supplies available.
It is possible that for some things you may have to use the entire budget on one type item (such as gold or silver), just be sure to prioritize. Again, I have to emphasis that water needs to be at the top of the list including a way to store and sanitize it.
It is also a good idea to keep a detailed list of these supplies as you accumulate them with a purchase date and expected shelf life. Be sure to rotate for freshness, especially as the stock grows and you get close to topping it off. Of course when you get to the top off point you should be making every effort to use the food supplies for family meals as a part of the rotation. You could even start this early on to a small degree. This will give you a chance to get accustomed to what it would be like preparing and consuming the foods you stored. Use your propane cooker or whatever other method you plan on using. Maybe even make it a point to do the prep with a lights out condition to get a real feel for it.
In conclusion, in order to ensure that you are staying on track with your current prepping needs, revisit your reasons for prepping from time to time; at least every six months. Make a realistic list of the possibilities and reevaluate your reasons for prepping; assess your needs and priorities as conditions change. Keep a detailed list of the supplies you’ve gathered with a purchase date and expected shelf life. Be sure to rotate for freshness, especially as the stock grows and you get close to topping it off. Finally, make an effort to utilize some of the food stores routinely, especially as you rotate and top off.
Just remember, you might not be able to do it all at once, but even the tortoise gets to the finish line while the spectator just waits and watches.
Letter Re Peak Oil–The Short Version
Dear Jim and Family,
There are many web sites dedicated to Peak Oil. All the explanations, the various arguments about when and explanations about why and the different methods for mitigating this disaster. I’ve spent most of 10 years involved with it. Once you get past the Kubler-Ross Grief Process, then Peak Oil is a matter of approach. It’s a huge problem for civilization, but its not necessarily an end.
I admit to being optimistic about civilization because we are adaptive people. We will find a way. I take a lot of cues from the Third World because they adapt first. It’s very important to look at them, and look at how cultures have adapted to change in the past. It’s popular to take the 1980s Apocalypse view of change to the Peak Oil Problem, but this is not rational. We are not the same people we were in 1983 and The Day After was running on television to scare us all out of Nuclear War with a ruthless depiction of MAD. We saw the light, we adapted, nuclear war will never be an all encompassing spasm. It will never be global or total because it is politically unacceptable. Any nation that tried would end up like North Korea, isolated, mocked, a pariah nation nobody wants to do business with. Peak Oil is as big an issue as global thermonuclear war. It really is. But the end of easy energy is not the end of energy. Its a temporary cessation of movement, and a reconstruction binge associated with it as we all come back to reality from the fun of Car Culture, something which is all we’ve known.
In the Third World, many people can’t afford to own a car or the fuel to move it around. They get by other ways. Taking buses, riding scooters/underbone motorized cycles. Hitching a ride on a farm or work truck for a little money, a bicycle, or even walking. There are ways to get things done. We in the First World have had it really good, and the USA was a major oil exporter until 1970. As far as I’m concerned, that was Peak Oil. The day we had to start importing oil to meet our own needs is the day we lost control of our national destiny. It is ironic that all those presidents, even Richard Milhous Nixon, were right about our dependence on foreign oil costing us so much.
We are heavily invested in the trappings of oil dependence. Cars, planes, most buses, earth moving equipment, industrial civilization is mostly powered by oil. Getting away from that, so the oil left is reserved for vehicles is going to be expensive. We’ll have to electrify rail, both for freight and for passenger lines. We’ll have to bring back the Streetcar and put them in every town that’s big enough to justify a bus service now. We’ll have to smooth the roads left, and narrow them to adjust to the fact that we can’t justify six lanes of empty freeway for no cars but lots of bicycles and scooters and a few trucks and buses going by. We’ll also have to lower speed limits to save energy, the most irritating of mandates. Many of us are old enough to remember the 55 MPH maximum speed limit. Compared to today’s 80 (officially 70 in many states), the countryside seems to crawl by at 55. Its important, though, and we’d better get used to it. Peak Oil makes it necessary.
Survivalism is about doing what’s necessary. Anticipating government moves is part and parcel to Preparedness. Driving 55 on the freeway, and seeing scooters and bicycles in the slow lane is something which will become common as time passes, probably by the time the next President is elected.
As less oil is available, fuel will also become less available and more expensive. Right now, weakness in the world economy is keeping the price “low”. That $147 per barrel of oil a couple years ago was not a fluke or one time thing. We should expect the price to creep up to that as the remaining oil gets more expensive to recover. As bad as the recent oil spill was, it was largely inevitable. Welding at that depth is bound to cause problems as the chemistry is not favorable for it. There will be other incidents like it in future. We’re into the expensive and difficult oil, not the easy and cheap oil.
What expensive and mostly unavailable fuel means to you is you must adapt to the conditions. This is a long term and nearly permanent situation. The oil is going away. Alternatives take time and effort and money to develop. They aren’t here yet, and what’s available isn’t affordable. So what can you do? You can carpool. You can take mass transit, if available. You can work closer to home and take the pay cut, or get training so that job will pay more, or other jobs become available. And you can get a motorcycle license and learn to ride a light weight fuel efficient bike so you can get to work wherever that is. This is what they do in the Third World when they want to get around. The 125cc 2-stroke is the third most popular motorcycle on earth. The scooter and underbone are the first two. The equivalent in 4-stroke, required in most states for legal highway access, is 250ccs. Its enough to get the job done and have good fuel economy.
Just as you would learn to shoot a rifle, the ability to ride a motorcycle is an important life skill. Having the bike is like having a full pantry with rotating stock. Just as you would keep a backup water supply or a well, alternative personal transportation is very important. This is what they do in the Third World, where they just don’t have the resources we do. They get by on what’s available and make it work. I admire their determination and ability to solve problems. We all should. Being a farmer is a lot of that. Living in the boonies, or huddling in the burbs to keep your specialized job, you can camouflage yourself with poverty and position yourself to survive by not sticking out, just adapting quietly to the conditions with a few less hardships. And if you happen to teach your neighbors to ride bikes to work, then you’re one of many and that much less noticeable.
Eventually, sustainable fuel will allow us to have cars again, probably. But in the 10 years or so it takes to get that far, best case, we’ll need to continue living and going to work. Peak Oil is a big change, but it is not the end of the world. It’s going to be awkward and irritating and inconvenient and expensive, but it’s not the end of the world. That’s why you have to keep going to work. Make sure you’re prepared to do what is necessary to get there. Best, – InyoKern
Economics and Investing:
More FDIC Friday Follies: Bankruptcy & Closures: Six More Bank Failures Makes 125 in 2010
Wasteland: Europe stalked by spectre of mass unemployment. (Thank to J.M for the link.)
Retirement on Hold: American Workers $6 Trillion Short
J.H.B. liked this piece by commentator Devvy Kidd: Bail-outs of Freddie and Fannie will bury us under unpayable debt
Tom F. sent us this link: Congressmen Weiner and Waxman Set Gold Hearing
Items from The Economatrix:
A September Surprise is Coming…As Stunningly Stupid Politics Spread
Widespread UK Civil Disorder “Inevitable”
The Daily Gold And Silver Report reports COMEX warehouse shortages. A short squeeze in silver is coming, folks!
Odds ‘n Sods:
C.J. Chivers, the New York Times newspaper’s Token-Guy-Who-Understands-Guns has posted an interesting piece about the weapons used by insurgents in the Middle East: What’s Inside a Taliban Gun Locker? Too bad that this article got relegated to a little-read blog page, rather than a prominent place in print. OBTW, a century ago American newspapers had both reporters with expertise, and editors with an interest in firearms. See, for example, an 1893 New York Times article about Krag rifle procurement. (Thanks to “Straycat” for sending the link to the C.J. Chivers article.)
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Michael H. sent us this news item: Two Tornadoes Strike New York City. Michael’s comment: “Not your typical New York City weather, with only 10 tornadoes recorded since 1950. I’d bet that few of the people impacted were prepared, whether for having the power out for three days or having the roof ripped off their homes.”
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Violent Crime Declined As Gun Sales Climbed in 2009. (Thanks to B.B. for the link.)
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The latest video from Jews for the Preservation of Firearms Ownership (JPFO): “No Guns For Jews”. OBTW, here is a web page that describes some well-armed and well-trained Jews. These folks, showing the same spirit of resistance as just a small minority of Jews during World War II, will be able to say “Never Again”, and do something about it!
Jim’s Quote of the Day:
“Wherefore it shall come to pass, if ye hearken to these judgments, and keep, and do them, that the LORD thy God shall keep unto thee the covenant and the mercy which he sware unto thy fathers:
And he will love thee, and bless thee, and multiply thee: he will also bless the fruit of thy womb, and the fruit of thy land, thy corn, and thy wine, and thine oil, the increase of thy kine, and the flocks of thy sheep, in the land which he sware unto thy fathers to give thee.” – Deuteronomy 7:12-13 (KJV)