Forecasting the Weather in a Grid-Down Situation, by the Old Farmer

I love satellite radar in real time. I’m a big fan of NOAA‘s weather alerts and a unit sits in our kitchen next to the old-fashioned pilot-light gas stove. But over the years I’ve learned a couple of things. One, they’re never completely right, and two, it all depends on technologies we might not have in the not too distant future. I could maybe add a third, just a theory of mine, that computer weather models are based on prejudices that might not be entirely true, like global warming. That could mean that the forecaster is assuming a kind of weather pattern nature isn’t going to dish out.

Weather is my companion. Watch it, smell it, guess at it, pray for changes in it, live in it, that’s all part of a farmer’s life, and I’ve learned to add my observations to whatever is coming out of the forecasters’ mouths. Here’s a summation of my experiences.

Wind Direction

Weather travels on the wind. In the US, this is West to East, following the jet stream, a pattern that has notorious dips from time to time. I live in the Northeast, so I’ll use anecdotes from my area. You’ll have to gather some from your area, and this isn’t hard to do it you’re observant, and if you take the time to talk to old timers. When JWR prints this, maybe other folks will add their wisdom.

Weather from the nor’west is generally fair; weather from the southwest/east is not, and weather from the nor’east is usually bad. So the first thing you’ll need is a good compass. Train yourself to know the compass directions in the area where you live. You’ll find after a while you can remember what they are. For those who have never paid much attention but are learning to do so now, remember “the sun rises in the y’east”, traverses overhead, or in the southern sky, and sets in the west. If you’re watching the dawn you’re facing east, north is on your left and south on your right.

If you simply stand still, you can see how clouds are moving against stationary trees or stars. Don’t assume that if it’s coming out of the west when you get up to do the morning chores it will stay that way. Wind shifts have meaning. So you may want to have some way of measuring: a wind sock, flag, weathervane. Smoke in the winter is a classic way of telling wind direction. Just be sure that you’re away from any structure that would cause a false wind tunnel, such as two tall buildings. Get into the habit of checking from time to time. For me, this is just SOP.

Weather patterns may change seasonally. In the summer and fall in our area, tropical storms coming from the south will bring warm, and sometimes torrential rains, but in winter the nor’easters are more likely, snowstorms or blizzards coming off the water.

Cloud Formations

These are really worth knowing. Observe them at dawn and dusk, then as they change during the day. I like this forecasting cloud chart because it has pictures of the formations condensed on two pages that I can pin to a wall.

Since clouds are made of water particles, they reflect color and that can tell you a lot about what’s coming when you see them at dawn and dusk. The wind direction works in tandem, though. Just knowing the cloud formation isn’t enough. For example, the last hurricane that passed our way missed us by about 80 miles. Since we’re preppers, we topped off our preparations, but as I was watching the clouds in the evening I saw dark, boiling, low gray clouds moving overhead. Normally these (called cumulonimbus mamma) mean bad weather right away. But the wind direction was from the west. With careful observation, I could catch sight of some blue sky in between the threatening patches. Swirling clouds were coming off the coast (a little hint of salt in the air) but were being kept at bay by westerly winds. In fact, we never even got needed rain from that system. So just a cloud formation is only part of the equation.

Become familiar with some of the well-known ones: the ‘mackerel scales’ formation, high ice clouds called cirrocumulus that break up as they move, forming the ‘scales’. If the wind is from the south, there could be rain in 15 to 20 hours, maybe less. Precipitation is likely if you see the undulating forms of altocumulus undulatus, like bands of dirty gray cotton, but once again, the wind needs to be NE to S. Cloud covers that make the whole sky white or gray-white usually mean precipitation of some kind, and so on. Those of you who have often looked at the sky will enjoy knowing the names of these formations and for others, it will be a learning curve.

Other Signs

When growing food depends on rain, or knowing if snow will endanger travel, other signs are important in the mix.

  • The smell of the air. I know, this sounds a little hokey, but other farmers will know what I mean: the sooty or iron taste of air that comes ahead of snow. A salty smell of storms coming off the water. The increased humidity and heaviness in the air the precedes foul weather like thunderstorms and tropical depressions.
  • Sky colors before frost or the arrival of a cooler trend. We all have seen the definite line of clearing or approaching clouds called a ‘front line’. When this happens and the color of the clearing sky is almost a pale green, cooler weather is on the way. ‘Apple green west’ is how I remember it, but sometimes it’s seen in other quadrants, too. In a clearing atmosphere in the fall, it’s a good sign of frost to come. I’m speaking of sky colors under normal conditions. If there’s a major volcanic event, there will be spectacular sunsets for some time, at the least, because of particles in the air.
  • And of course, there’s that sickly greenish tinge of the sky in a bad storm that everyone who’s ever lived in a tornado prone area knows and hates.
  • radiation cooling. This means clouds have cleared and as night falls there’s nothing to trap the warmth near the earth so it’s more likely to be frosty and/or colder than if there was a cloud cover. Very clear, pin-point stars mean there’s not much humidity in the air. Fuzzy, ‘close’ looking stars mean more humidity is present.
  • Rainbows around the moon. This is not a sure portent of precipitation, but it does mean there are water crystals in the atmosphere. In winter I look for this as an early predictor of snow, but it must be taken with wind and cloud formations.
  • animal behaviors. A bad winter storm is always proceeded by animals trying to get food packed in before they have to wait out a storm. If you have a songbird feeder, you know this behavior. When species that are normally in competition seem to be feeding together, just dead-set on getting food on board, look out
  • A sudden change in temperatures. You’re working outside and it’s hot and still. Then you feel welcome, cooler downdrafts lifting your sweat-soaked hair. The wind starts to pick up, and you notice that under the clouds the temperatures are lower, more than shade accounts for. This is a good time to batten down the hatches, close the barn door, get the livestock in, because with the right wind direction, there’s severe weather coming, maybe a tornado or hail. The clash of warm and cold is what causes severe storms.

Predicting The Amount

This is tricky, I admit. But the last few years I got tired of the hype over inches of snow and started paying attention to what I could observe, and the signs of nature always pointed right. Maybe it was just a couple of good years of guesses. But this is what I looked for: the right wind direction. Heavy overcast that got more white/gray. Temps at freezing or lower. Increased bird activity. Small flakes at the onset of snow that don’t get larger. Increasing winds. Generally, small, cold, stinging flakes mean business. Larger flakes mean the upper atmosphere is warm and they’re sticking together, so there will be more melting and probably less accumulation. If the temperature is also rising, it will end with rain.

If the temperature is going down and the snow mixes with ice pellets, freezing rain or a nasty mix can be the result, but there won’t be a foot of snow. Remember, 1 inch of rain equals 10 inches of snow at 32 degrees, so whatever rain or melting you get lessens the accumulation.

Better Safe Than Sorry

In our techno world people get into warm cars in light clothes and go off on their Michelin tires with all-wheel drive and expect to get to their warm, lighted destination without a hitch. I hope the increasingly severe weather patterns have ground some sense into a few folks here and there. Once you know the signs, wind directions and cloud formations, pay attention to them. It could save your life to not go into the woods before a bad storm, or try to travel when the snow looks like it means business. As the economy worsens, we’ll be seeing less frenetic sanding and plowing to keep everybody getting to karate lessons. And that, my friends, is when it’s best to crank up the (non-electric) wood or coal stove, dip into the deep larder, and stay home.

A Real Time Exercise

NOAA has predicted a nor’easter within 36 hours. Use as an exercise to hone your weather forecasting skills. (Actual weather event, Oct. 13 – 15) I’ve used EST rather than military time for the exercise.

  • 8:00 AM, initial observation: Clear. Perfect day, bright, sunny. The sky is a deep, brilliant blue. It’s hard to believe bad weather is on the way. Set barometer.
  • Evening, 12 hours later. Cooler temps, stars brilliant. Haze around half moon, however.
  • Midnight, bobcat in vicinity. Checking our birds, notice a little ground haze but stars still clear.
  • Morning, 24 hours later. Still clear, quiet. Some clouds coming from West. ‘Mackerel scale’ formation noted in W sky. Clouds are moving fast but are light, almost filmy.
  • 12:30 PM, traveling back from an off-farm job. Noticed more clouds, some cumulus in distance, wind still westerly.
  • 2:00 PM, working on farm, note wind shift to due South. High and low clouds moving, still patches of blue. Seems to be less bird activity than usual, especially for migration season. Wonder if they’ve moved on ahead of an approaching storm? Humidity seems higher.
  • 3:00 PM, wind gusts strong enough to blow papers, fitful. Sky is now completely white in the upper atmosphere(altostratus translucidus) with fast moving gray clouds below. No more glimpses of blue. Some shift to SSE.
  • 6:00 PM, first light rain begins.
  • 10:00 PM, heavier rains. Still no wind. Barometer down slightly.
  • 12:30 AM, Heavy, straight rain. Some wind can be seen tossing the tops of trees against a pearl gray sky (remember, there’s a half moon over all this.)
  • 2:00 AM. Not much in the way of wind. If it was a real nor’easter, the east window screens would be clotted with snow or obscured with caught rain. They’re clear. My analysis is that this storm is passing too far to the E to really impact us.
  • 7:30 AM – Barometer has dropped almost 5/10ths. The low has passed us or is passing. We got an inch of rain. Skies are clearing, there’s little wind. Turn on NOAA to learn that this storm did pass to the E and will hit Maine. Higher gusts are forecast behind the storm – let’s see if we get them…

This is the second storm to pass to our E after a big buildup by media outlets. NOAA seems more conservative but sometimes they are dead wrong. Since we get our blizzards as nor’easters and hurricane dregs from a S pattern, this was a useful exercise. I did spend some time preparing for a real storm, putting away things that could become projectiles in a high wind, making sure all the animal chores were done in case the weather delayed my visits to the livestock. It’s tempting to ignore the next one, but I’ve been farming too long to take the weather for granted. Be safe! Good luck in your own forecasting.

Letter Re: Our Experience with a Chimney Fire

I also had a chimney fire many years ago. This was long before I had ever thought about TEOTWAWKI and I knew absolutely nothing. I did end up with firemen and “lookie-loos” roaming my house and yard and included much embarrassment.

The reason I am writing this is that one of the firefighters advised me that I can use a long length of heavy chain and lower it down the stack and do a lot of rattling around. This will not replace regular cleaning, but will knock down the larger pieces of build up. If you have wood that leaves a heavy creosote build-up in relatively short time, this will keep you from having to call the chimney sweep every few months. As you wrote, however, the best solution is to buy the proper tools and learn to do it yourself, which we eventually did. Sincerely, – Erica C.

Economics and Investing:

Fed Easing May Mean 20% Dollar Drop: Bill Gross. (Hat tips to Greg C. and B.H. for the link.)

G.G. sent us this: ‘The World Does Not Need to End’ A Gold Bull and His Prediction: $10,000 an Ounce

Are Asian Traders Preparing A Major Squeeze Of Silver Shorts? (Thanks to B.B. for the link.)

B.J.G. sent this: Roubini: Japan is ‘Accident Waiting to Happen’

Items from The Economatrix:

Why Growth Will Stay Too Weak To Ease Unemployment

Economy Offers Mixed Picture Day Before Election

UPS Says 2011 Rates Will Rise 4.9%

The Next Global Economic Crisis

The Utility of Gold

Why Silver Has Broken Out and Catching Up And Where it Goes Next

CNN Poll: Those Who Say Things Going Poorly Higher than 1994 or 2006

Mid-America Economy Staggers Amid Weak Job Growth

Odds ‘n Sods:

“LT” pointed me to a sticky post in the Survival section of NorthEast Shooters forums. It’s a long post with lots of pictures, on primitive fire-making.

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Reader NLC sent this: NASA Now Ready to Detect World-threatening Solar “Storm of the Century”

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Say it ain’t so! Harley-Davidson to make motorcycles in India. Hopefully this production will be sold only in India. (A hat tip to F.G. for the link.)

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The bedbug infestation rate is getting worse, especially in the eastern U.S. You can sleep relatively tight, by checking the registry before you check in to a hotel.

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Crime Skyrockets In [New York City] Central Park. (Thanks to J.O.B. for the link.)

Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 31 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Parabellum (Luger ) with 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP projectiles, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo (a $249 value), and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $400, B.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and C.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing, and B.) a Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.)

Round 31 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Prepping: It is Dental and it is Mental, by Wade H., DDS

Let’s presume that our worst imaginations of the future economic/political/societal collapse come true.  We are in our “undisclosed bunker location” surviving day by day without all of the creature comforts that we are used to.  A random thought or fear pops into our head…Our local dentist might as well be on the other side of the moon. What is going to happen to our teeth? What are we going to do if we have a tooth ache? What if we get an abscess? What if Suzie did not get her wisdom teeth removed like the dentist wanted? The subject of these next few blog postings will explore aspects of surviving without having a kindly dentist a phone call away.
There are few historical examples of a modern western population suddenly cut off from dental care. What can be called modern dentistry in Europe and the USA dates back to the 1920’s, I would probably date ”Modern” as the common use of local anesthetics and some sort of powered drill. The only well documented group that went through something close to TEOTWAWKI that I am aware of is the POWs held by North Vietnam during the 1960s and 1970s. For the most part these men began their captivity as typical fighter pilots, “Ten feet tall and Bullet proof”. They were the tip of the spear mentally and physically. There were plenty of opportunities for these men to have their needed dentistry done on a regular basis. Many of them went into captivity with no needed dental treatment. Some, however, for one reason or another had unmet needs prior to their capture.  These two groups did have some slightly different results during their stay in the North.  When they pulled the ejection bar on their airplane, their lives were abruptly and indefinitely changed.  Their story is as close as I can come to any documented account of the untoward scenarios that we envision.
The experience of these men from a dental standpoint is especially valuable, because when they were released, the medical and dental community realized that in addition to the debt that a grateful nation owed these heroes, this was a rare opportunity to learn from the experience of these men.  Careful debriefing, examinations, and records were taken for these men when they came home, and compared to their condition prior to captivity. Several summary articles were published at the time and are still available on Medline. Being a Cromagnon dentist myself, I remembered some of these from the mid seventies, and downloaded them for some memory refreshment. Below are some of the bullet points that stood out to me from this review.
What can we learn from the experience of these brave men.

  1. The POWs were able to maintain their oral hygiene. In fact if anything, the fear of dental issues led these men to over clean their teeth.  Post captivity examination showed numerous examples of gum recession due to overzealous brushing. In addition to the inexpensive toothbrushes that the prisoners were given, the men fabricated their own chew sticks, tooth pics, and floss. From Bamboo, bone, and thread. Tooth paste was made from charcoal, soap, and salt. For many of the men tooth cleaning became an obsession. Something within their control that they could positively affect their health.
  2. Many teeth were fractured from pebbles and bone chips in their food. It was reported that the rice that they were fed was recovered from buried stores of food stockpiled by the government. It was not washed and was in nasty condition. The men quickly learned to use extra care in their chewing.
  3. Many tales of self and buddy administered improvised dental first aid were noted. Sharpened nails, bamboo, and bones were used to lance dental abscesses. One pilot related how he kept a fish bone to work up in the stump of his broken off incisor, as needed, to open the pathway for the pressure from an abscess to be relieved. Salt was used for poultices and rinses to help heal abscesses and inflammation.
  4. The psychological impact of dental problems was emphasized by these men over and over. Bruises and burns would heal and get better, Wrenched joints and broken bones would knit back together, dental problems would not get better until the men were released. Despair, anxiety, irritability, and inability to concentrate resulted from dental distress. One quote sums up this feeling: “Although this may seem a severe evaluation of so many (seemingly) simple a problem as a toothache, it must be born in mind that for the prisoner of war, relief cannot be expected until he is released from his captivity. Thus, a severe toothache may bring about a a condition slightly detrimental to survival, but may produce a psychological condition which, to a prisoner who is isolated, may be extremely hazardous to survival. To the person who is sitting in a prisoner of war camp, even though at the present time he does not feel the toothache, he is aware that in the future it is going to return again, again, and again. He also knows that there is no relief in sight for this and realizes that in many cases he himself is to blame for the pain since, prior to captivity, he had the opportunity to have his teeth repaired and yet chose not to do so.”
  5.  Within the POW community, a man was chosen as “camp doctor”. He was untrained, but had some interest or had studied some kind of related pre professional college degree. One such individual stated that he had seen much suffering from teeth untreated prior to capture. It was of such great importance, that in the future, men with needed work should be prevented from being placed in harm’s way until that treatment was completed.

I feel that there are some obvious conclusions for us in the prepper community. Dental health is something that we take for granted.  During the pending apocalypse the ability to find a clean well lighted clinic with a competent experienced practitioner will be severely limited. You might not die from a tooth ache, but those with a bad one may debate the merits of ending it. My recommendation is to start off with as high degree of dental health as possible.  When the balloon goes up, we will be done with x-rays, crowns, root canals, implants, periodontal treatment, dentures, etc. for a long long time. We will be able to do some fillings. They will not be pretty but they should be functional. We will do a lot of extractions, but tooth replacement will be next to impossible till the new normalcy develops. The good news is that dental anesthetics should maintain enough potency to get the job done for years if not allowed to get too hot. The Boy Scout motto:  Be Prepared. – Wade H., The Tooth Doctor

Letter Re: Finding Affordable Ham Radio Gear

Hello Jim and Readers,
Last weekend I attended a Ham radio swap meet near Salem, Oregon. I have attended swaps for over 40 years now, and I am noticing an interesting trend in equipment sales. especially in 1970s and early 1980s ham gear. Kenwood, and Yaesu gear that was very popular during that period of time is becoming very affordable. Most of the Kenwood TS-520, and TS-820 gear is now selling on average for around $150 to $350 price range. likewise, the Yaesu FT-101 and FT-901 series are in the similar price ranges. Most of these older radios work quite well. I still use a TS-520 that works quite well, no problems, and it is very reliable. The only drawback is they are not general coverage radios. Most are ham bands only with the exception of variable frequency oscillator (VFO) overlap.

I did notice several early 1980s radios like the Kenwood TS-430S are selling in the $350 range, and comparable radios from Yaesu, and ICOM are selling in that price range also. Most of these are general coverage radios, that are multi-mode (USB, LSB, AM, CW, FM) and cover from 100 KHz, to 30 MHz. and are modifiable for out of ham band use, like military, MARS, CAP, and other government operations. Radios to watch for are sets with internal antenna tuners. Some of the parts for repair are unavailable.

If your are looking for VHF/UHF radios, they can be had quite cheap. older ICOM IC-2AT handheld two meter radios are quite tough, they are one of the most reliable handhelds made. (That is my opinion–others may say differently. But I have been acquiring this model for several years now to send to Burma for missions work, all that I have ever purchased are still working and “they take a licking and keep on ticking.” Pricing from $15 to about $35 is a good range to look for, Other mobile VHF/UHF radios are also quite cheap no. Of course let the buyer be ware. I have found most hams to be quite honest. They will tell you if what they have does or doesn’t work. And a lot of them will be happy to fire up the equipment in your presence to show you how they work. When buying gear, many people save the original boxes, and manuals. It is always best to obtain an operators manual but they are available on line for a small price. Some service manuals are even sold with older gear, it makes the equipment more saleable.

Be sure if you buy a radio to get one with at least a hand mike, Vintage microphones are kind or pricey the popular D -104 tend to cost more $60 to $120. Telegraphy keys the type I used to buy for 50 cents, or sell for that, now are $25 and more. Older military keys are now “getting like chicken lips” and people who have them won’t let go of them inexpensively. They were cheap when they were plentiful. after WWII until the early 1970s.

Antenna insulators for wire antennas depending on the seller, can be cheap or quite pricey. But gray PVC works very well for antenna insulators. ARRL hand books are always a good deal. The antenna manuals are very useful, I still reach for my older manuals before I go for the very large newer ones, And I must have at least 15 different antenna books.. I had an engineer make a pretty dumb comment once. He said all of the antennas that will ever be made have been invented. That is not true. But if you know the basics or have a basic understanding you too can invent or design something new. So if your looking into getting a ham radio license, or just some decent gear check out some of the ham fests, and ham radio swap meets around the country. Most of us who read Survivalblog understand the importance of communications during stressful times. Ham radio has been the first to communicate in most major disasters. Even when Iraq attacked Kuwait, and The Cubans took over in Grenada it was ham radio operators who were able to communicate with the outside world and summon aid.

Places to look for when there may be an event near you are to check out web sites like ARRL.org, QRZ.COM, eHam.com, QTH.COM or just plug into your search engine “HAM RADIO” , clubs, activities, etc. Another way is to find a copy of QST magazine at a good book store or library, or ask someone you know to be a ham radio operator for information. Most of us like to gab about our hobby, and really enjoy sharing with people who show an interest. If you don’t know any, then check out parking lots for cars with really weird antennas on them with call sign license plates, leave a note or wait for the person to return to their car. Blessings, – Dave of Oregon.

Economics and Investing:

Frequent content contributor B.B. sent this: U.S. home prices expected to slide another 8%

December 7th: Planned European Bank Run. (Thanks to Richard S. for the link.)

Daniel Amerman: Bailout Lies Threaten Your Savings

Most Americans Say the Recession Isn’t Over Yet. About three out of four Americans say the U.S. is still in a recession, with Republicans and women slightly more pessimistic about the economy than Democrats and men, according to a new AOL/Poll Position survey.

Items from The Economatrix:

A Paralyzed Fed Defers Decision On Monetary Policy To Primary Dealers In An Act That Can Only Be Classified As Treason

Nitty Gritty Numbers Suggest Downward Spiral

Record-low Mortgage Rates Will Be Gone In 2011

Note from JWR:

Today we present two entries for Round 31 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Parabellum (Luger ) with 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP projectiles, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo (a $249 value), and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $400, B.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and C.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing, and B.) a Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.)

Round 31 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Survival and “The Right Stuff” Thoughts on Guns and Medicine, by Matthew R.

Survivalism in our age represents a gamut of knowledge in diverse subject areas. Expertise in a specific subject area can be a rare and valuable find. But anyone who claims to be a “general expert” is an oxymoron at best.

I have been serving in the Army Reserve and National Guard as a medic for seven years now; and I am an OIF veteran. That makes me an expert in a very limited area of combat medicine. It also makes me generally knowledgeable in areas of basic soldiering.

Based on these experiences, I believe I knowledge and skills that could prove useful to the prepper reading this blog. But take what I have to say with a grain of salt. With the good also comes the bad.

Debate in the survival literature regarding which weapon would best serve a survivor in a TEOTWAWKI situation is wide ranging and often conflicting. Personally, I have experience with weapons ranging from the .22 LR to the .308. And I know some of the readers are familiar with everything between the .17 HMR to the 50 BMG. While no one will ever agree regarding which one of the rounds falling in this range “best,” I think the most experienced shooters of us can agree that each caliber with its corresponding platform has its respective virtues. At the end of the day, it’s not about who has the “best” gun; it’s about who has the right gun to do the job at hand.

This is where situational awareness becomes particularly relevant. A prepper living in the city has different needs and requirements in a weapon than a prepper living in the suburbs, or a prepper in a rural area for that matter. Different blogs and literature are devoted to each of these areas and the reader would be advised to consult with the relevant resource.

One common denominator is the old combat axiom: “the first to die on the battlefield is your plan.” We may live in the cities, but we should be prepared to have to fight our way to the suburbs, into rural areas, and so on. Similarly, we may have a stronghold in the densest of wilderness yet find it necessary to fight our way back into a populated center. In the final analysis, what we want is a weapon system that is adaptive not only to the situation immediately at hand but also for the situation that we cannot anticipate.

This is why it is important to choose a weapon system involving more than one weapon. Historically, this means carrying both a long gun and a short gun. In the Old West, this meant a carbine/revolver combination. The contemporary military variation of this concept is the M4 carbine and M9 pistol. A shotgun can also supplement the short or long-gun role, depending on the prepper’s particular needs and abilities. Regardless of which weapon you choose for each role, this is the basic dual weapon concept.

When choosing which weapons to carry, the prepper must take into consideration two paradoxical factors affecting the choice of weapons: ensuring redundancy and maximizing range of use. By redundancy, I mean that if one weapon fails or is inaccessible, the other weapon will be able to supplement that weapon and fall into that role. An example of this scenario is the classic cowboy .45 Colt dual weapon configuration, lever action carbine and single action revolver. If my camp gets overrun with brown bears and I reach for my carbine and it jams, I can reach for my revolver and likely be able to stop the bear with that weapon. Additionally, I only need to carry one caliber of ammunition, making my total carrying load much lighter. A .22 LR carbine/pistol combination is probably one of the best examples of using the same caliber for both weapons in order to maximize combat load while minimizing weight in the dual weapon configuration. Obvious from these examples are the limitations of orienting your dual carry weapon system towards complete redundancy. In both cases of the .45 Colt and .22 LR dual weapon system, it is obvious that these calibers are inherently limited in their potential uses. The .45 Colt is essentially a pistol round, with very limited terminal ballistics. While it would be an excellent choice at short range, an individual preparing for the unexpected will probably anticipate the need for longer shots. I want to note, however, that for some individuals, the terminal ballistics of .45 Colt is within their maximum expected shooting range and, therefore an excellent choice for a dual carry system. A look at the 22 LR dual carry system yields similar observations. For some individuals, particularly inexperienced shooters and children, the .22 LR could deliver the optimum performance for what the shooter at short distances would expect to shoot. In such a case, the .22 LR would make an excellent choice as a dual carry system.

More experienced/skilled shooters may want to expand the field of uses for their dual carry systems. This usually means choosing a long and short gun of different calibers, with different purposes. The side effect of this is having to carry more than one caliber at a time. The corollary benefit is that in an environment of scarcity, the prepper will have a higher likelihood of finding the correct caliber of ammunition (assuming he is not chambered for “exotic” rounds) for at least one of his guns. Therefore it is important to consider how common each caliber is of the guns you intend to carry.

In rural, lightly populated areas, the dual weapon concept may entail a long gun in .270 or .308 for long distance game and/or personnel and a short gun in .357 or .44 magnum for personal defense and small or large game. For urban areas, it might make more sense for the prepper to carry a .223 long gun and a short gun in either 9mm or .45 because of the unpredictability within a dense population setting, the greater load carrying capacity, the likelihood of shorter fighting distances, and smaller concern for hunting wild game. Generally, the urban prepper will lean towards smaller, light-weight rounds with larger combat loads; the rural prepper will want at least one weapon in high-powered .30 caliber or larger, but may choose between either a large caliber or a small caliber round for the second weapon. In either case, the rural survivor must be prepared to use his dual weapon system in an urban setting and vice-a-versa.

While ideally, we would be able to carry our weapons collections with us and use each weapon for its specific purpose, in reality, if we find ourselves displaced from our homes, we will probably have to make a quick decision about which weapons we choose to carry. Because it is unfeasible to carry more than three weapons (two is probably more reasonable), we should be prepared to take into account our present situation and be ready to adapt to a situation that is not immediately foreseeable.

Medicine:

Again, the paradox lies in the problem of specific versus general application. In combat, I was faced with the choice of carrying numerous items with specific applications or carrying general first aid items that may not be able to fix a specific problem I could have been faced with.

Generally, when procuring medical supplies, the prepper should consider the spectrum of medical scenarios. In military terminology, this spectrum can be described as everything between sick call and a Mass Casualty (MASCAL) event.

Sick call is mainly preventative and is essential to the functioning of a unit. Assessing and treating problems at the sick call phase often prevents a small medical problem from becoming a larger one that could endanger the health and well being of the entire unit. While often overlooked by preppers, the most frequent type of medical care people require in the field is preventative.

For sick call, the medical personnel should carry a small First Aid pouch. That is everything from cough drops to Band-Aids, to Tylenol. Many medics pass these types of items off as unnecessary, because they are focusing on the potential MASCAL situation. What they forget is the effect these little comforts have on enhancing morale and preventing small boo-boos from becoming big problems.

Please don’t get the idea that all I carried for sick call were cough drops, Band-Aids, and Tylenol. In addition to these essential products, I carried treatments for blisters, antibiotics, pain killers, ice packs, ace bandages, thermometer, blood pressure gauge, Benadryl, saline, diphenhydramine (an antihistamine), and more. But, I say again, my purpose here is not to get into specifics about what to pack. I am not trying to espouse a list of the “right stuff,” that a cookie-cutter prepper needs to buy; rather I want to express a coherent framework for choosing the items that you, exercising personal judgment, ought to consider taking when weight, space, and time are of the essence.

There is abundant literature regarding preparing for MASCAL scenarios. In particular I would refer you to one of the copies of the Ranger Medic Handbook floating around on the Internet.

MASCAL is the worst-case scenario; it occurs when multiple members of your party or friendly parties are injured. In large-scale scenarios, MASCAL includes triage, treatment, and evacuation of patients.

Suppose you and members of your group are convoying from point A to point B for whatever reason. After many miles, one of the drivers falls asleep, swerves, and rolls the vehicle into an embankment. As the senior medical personnel in your group, it is your job to decide who can be saved and who cannot. This is the first step in triage. You then must arrange your patients into categories based on the amount of care they need. In a small accident, formal triage is not so essential so I won’t get into those categories here.

What is essential is determining who can live and who will die at that particular moment and then treating those most severely injured who still have a chance at surviving. While taking responsibility for those needing immediate care, you must simultaneously direct those who are capable, including the walking wounded, to provide care to those other patients who you have determined can survive though you are too tied up to treat immediately. This is where the Combat Life Saver training becomes critical in survival preparations. The better trained the members of your group, the better they will be able to fall into supporting roles in a medical emergency. The Combat Life Saver curriculum can be found online.

The most common acronym you will hear in emergency medicine is “ABC,” standing for “airway, breathing, and circulation.” In some military circles, the order has been changed to “CAB,” in order to stress hemorrhagic bleeding over airway concerns. Rather than engaging in a debate regarding which one is correct, I recommend leaving it up to the senior medical personnel to decide the order of treatment and establish that standard within the group. In any event, after you determine the casualty’s level of consciousness, the first step in treatment involves addressing the patient’s ABCs.

Every member of your group should be taught the proper way to open a patient’s airway, whether it is the jaw-thrust, for suspected trauma, or the head-tilt-chin-lift for all other cases. They should also know how to insert either a nasopharyngeal airway or an oral pharyngeal airway. The steps for these tasks can be found in the Combat Life Saver manual. Additionally, you should teach your members basic CPR. Though the CLS course is designed for active fire scenarios, in which CPR could create more battlefield losses, in most situations requiring emergency medical care on the battlefield, knowledge of CPR would be more beneficial than harmful. Anyone seriously interested in survival should take it upon himself or herself to receive CPR training.

Every member of your group should also know how to identify and stop arterial bleeding. They should understand the progression from applying manual pressure, to applying pressure dressings, and finally applying a tourniquet. They should also know when the situation dictates that they go directly to the tourniquet.

The last step to emergency care treatments not covered in the CLS curriculum, which any practical adherent to emergency medicine ought to recognize, is the treatment of fractures and most importantly, the appropriate treatment of potential cervical-spine injuries. The old CLS curriculum disregarded the potential adverse effects improper movement of a patient with a c-spine injury could have on the patient, including paralysis or death. When cervical-spine/neck injury is expected, special care must be given to the patient, immobilizing his head, before and during transport.

There are plenty of products available for patenting the airway, providing rescue breathing, stopping arterial bleeding, splinting fractures, and stabilizing c-spine injuries. I would advise you to familiarize yourself with these products and use them in training scenarios in order to better utilize them should the need occur.

When preparing my aid-bag, I am anticipating having to address everything between sick call and MASCAL. I know that to focus on any area at the detriment of another would be folly. In addition to the sick-call items, mentioned above, I carry a non-rebreather mask, nasopharyngeal airways, combi-tubes, e-tubes, CAT tourniquets, QuickClot Gauze, Israeli Bandages, to mention just a few things. But remember that none of these things are useful if you don’t know how to use them. The important thing to remember is that as a survivor, you will probably be faced with having to assist someone who can’t breathe, someone who is bleeding out, or someone whose neck is broken. Take what you can and be as prepared as possible, but also be prepared to use what you have around you when the situation arises; you may not end up in the situation you expected, and you may just have to improvise a solution.

One of the most common and useful training scenarios I have experienced is the direct fire drill. It may be conducted mounted (in vehicle or on foot). What the drill does is train the group to function as a unit. In each direct fire drill, simulate being on patrol and being attacked. The unit must react to the attack, thus familiarizing themselves with tactics and weapons. In each of these scenarios, a member of the group should be designated as a combat casualty. The group will then have to function as a unit to suppress the attackers, triage, treat, and evacuate the casualty. Thus your combat training will involve a deeper dimension than simple react-to-fire drill; your unit will learn how to fight through a worst-case scenario.

Please don’t leave this article thinking this is in any way an exhaustive list. If lists were the end-all to survival, preparing would be easy. It is not. Whatever you do will reflect your personal knowledge base, your needs, wants, and those of the members in your group. Rather than thinking about survival in terms of things you need for what you expect, think about survival in terms of maintaining flexibility in the face of uncertainty.

Insight on TEOTWAWKI from Quilting, by Don L.

Life offers us inspiration in the oddest times and ways. My wife is a third generation rag rug weaver but also has many other endeavors, such as baby quilts. She has a craft show coming up and wanted to finish the three quilts she had started. My occupation stems from working in the operating room and I have developed a fairly fine sewing skill so I offered to help. Little did I know this would give me insight in the preparations I am currently working on.

As I was running a fine invisible stitch on the inside of the seams it dawned on me that in my seeking info on TEOTWAWKI, I hadn’t seen any articles on stockpiling sewing supplies. We take for granted buying new clothing easily and inexpensively. I began to ponder the rag material that she uses to make her rugs and the thread we need to attach one end of the rag to the next. These can be old clothing, towels or sheets as well as end of cloth bolts made by commercial material mills. Now apply this thought to a time when you can’t buy new clothes or, even more stressful, have growing children who outgrow clothes. Sure there may be some sort of bartering, but if we are seeking self-reliance, then having necessary items on hand for mending or tailoring new clothes becomes essential.

I have begun sending my wife out to buy patterns on sale for your basic run-of-the-mill clothes, such as pants, shirts, and jackets. I am a lucky man with such a talented wife! We are stocking up on patterns for men, women and children. This also serves a two-fold purpose, the first being self-provision but secondarily, it becomes a marketable skill that could bolster our household income. Patterns can be as little as 99 cents and we have even found them at yard sales for 25 cents.

Our next phase is to start stocking up on essential materials. Things like denim, cotton, wool, jersey, and so forth, allowing for a variety of necessary clothing items. Fabric store often run specials and sales. Another good source for material is the fabric stores in the nearby Amish country, they tend to have larger amounts for lower prices. Also their selection reflects more of the need to have items. While at our local supermarket we came across a closeout deal on needles. How many people have not given any consideration to sewing needles? We put several packages in our cart along with spools of corresponding thread. Once again there is a secondary purpose we can use for ourselves or barter for needed items. Yard sales have rendered many “bolts” of  cloth from people who have given up on sewing and crafts.

Add to the sewing inventory items like stick pins, pin cushions, sharp scissors, snaps, Velcro, buttons. My wife has jars of buttons from every shirt or whatever that no longer had any use for that just in case repair. We have yarn and darning needles on hand as well. I also began to think of heavier duty materials and invested in one of those awl types stitching apparatus. I bought additional spools and needles for it as well. My wife used it to make me a denim wrap for my butchering knives and tool. It is awesome everything close at hand and well protected.

In a TEOTWAWKI situation we have begun to secure the tools needed to reused, recycle and repair in the area of clothing. Many of us have that favorite whatever and wouldn’t want to dispose of it if it had a hole but this becomes more crucial when you can’t replace the item. My wife is looking for other sources of education to support this phase of preparation. She is on the look out for any other type of sewing related courses like knitting.

My next venture is to learn more about tanning hides. We butcher our own beef and pork so learning to make full use of those hides would be invaluable. So now I want to acquire tools for working leather. We can only begin to think of the multiple uses of tanned hides in a time of need. The list of uses are unlimited by nothing except your imagination and available resources. Add to this list of material the hides of animals we hunt. You could make shoes, belts, slings, wallets, holsters and so on!

I realize the preparation must focus around the basics such as food, weapons and water but how will maintaining those items or acquiring them be impacted if you have leaking boots or a coat will holes in it. Tattered gloves will not protect you from frost bite. Most of these items can be packed in small packages other that large quantities of material but still are light weight. The plethora of usage is beyond the time required to gather.

This new area of prepping has allowed for us to prepare for the grown of our children as well as provide for others in our fledging group. It also gives us a marketable skill that can lend to bartering for things we need. Here is a starter list.

  • 20 spools of thread in base colors: black, white, brown, green, blue and gray
  • 10 spools of thread in secondary colors: red, pink, orange, yellow and so on
  • 20 packages of sewing needles
  • 10 packages of straight pins
  • Sheers 2 regular, small, and pinking shears
  • Basic clothing and undergarments patterns, male, female, and various children’s sizes
  • Material, basic colors in cotton, denim, wool, jersey, flannel and fleece
  • Add-ons, buttons, zippers, Velcro, snaps and latches

The second area of prepping I want to lend information on is to buddy up with other people who have jobs in operating rooms. The reason for this is the sheer volume of items that aren’t used but since they came in pre set up kits can not be used on another patient. These items can include but not limited to things like Army Battle Dressings (ABDs), various other dressings, sutures, sterile items and other useful things for TEOTWAWKI. A lot of these items have ended up in my stash and that even includes basic surgical instruments that have minor flaws.

A lot of times these items go to the local vet’s office which saves them a small fortune but they still charge you for it as if they bought it new. You wouldn’t believe the resources that are available if you find someone who works at your local hospital. At times supplies are opened for surgery and the case cancels leaving a great bounty of supplies for the cache of medical supplies. I just took home a huge bag of cotton balls. I have countless lap sponges which I used for rags and when they are worn out they get dipped in something to serve as fire starters.

I can not speak on other areas of a hospital since I have no experience there. You can imagine the money you can save if these people share a 1/3 of what they collect. Imagine adding band aids, dressings, ABDs, casting material, Ace wraps, suture and so on for no cost this would be a  logistical blessings for preppers. This can free up some additional monetary funds for other crucial items.

With all the talk about food preparation I have been getting food grade buckets from another department within my hospital for free, These 5 gallon buckets were filled with soda lime used in the anesthesia machine to filter CO2. I bought some mylar bag and using a method I learned from JWR’s nonfiction book started going to my local grain dealer and buying corn, oats and wheat for long term storage. Companies who have the market on this may charge up to $60 for a 5 gallon bucket. I can buy 50 pounds of it for 15 dollars and that will fill about 2-3 buckets.

Not only does this serve as long term grain storage for our group but it will serve as grain for livestock as well till first crops come in. I find items that serve a more versatile area are what I seek out. To me it is better to have one item serve multiple purposes that to have several items that sever only one. I tend to shop around. I am working on picking up food grade plastic barrels with removal lids. I can collect rain water, store items and so on. My current venture is reloading equipment, lead bars and bullet molds. That way I not only reload but can cast my own bullets if need be.

Having kids in our group I have stocked up on regular board games, cards and books for the children when the event takes place. Add to it a stash of sports balls, air hand pump to help pass the time of life without electronic entertainment. I realize they will all be busy helping maintain our homestead but they need to have something to enjoy as well as adults on the rare moment things slow down. Books also offer education since many I own are about this for mention situation. But have added many works of fiction and non fiction, I have included army field manuals, medical books and how to books.

We are slowing prepping at our place in the country. Each week affords us new ways of becoming more self reliant.

Letter Re: A Technique for Decanting Oil Into Small Containers

Sir:

I found many years ago that oil by the gallon like WD-40 is cheaper than small cans of three in one. But, how to get the oil from the gallon jug to the small can?

I took about four inches of surgical tubing, and pressed it onto the end of the squeeze can. Hold the small can with cap up. I took a small pill bottle, and filled it from the big gallon jug.

Hold the small can upright, and put the end of the surgical tubing into the small bottle of fluid. As I squeeze the small can, bubbles blew. When I released, fluid came back into the small can.

I’d be squeezing air out, and the fluid stayed in the bottom of the small can. I could refill a small can in a minute or less. – C.A.Y.