Notes from JWR:

Good News! It took many moons, but the archiving project for the early years of SurvivalBlog posts is now complete. You can now use the “Search” box at the top of the right-hand bar to search every SurvivalBlog post, all the way back to the blog’s launch in August, 2005. Thank you for your patience.

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Today we present another two entries for Round 32 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A 250 round case of 12 Gauge Hornady TAP FPD 2-3/4″ OO buckshot ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo (a $240 value), and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $400, B.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and C.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.) , and B.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value.

Round 32 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Thoughts on 2011 Silver Investing, by Texas Tony

Disclaimer:  This  article represents the opinions of one individual.  Keep in mind my views are more extreme than the mainstream.  For example, I am anticipating significant worldwide financial upheaval in 2011, which could include any combination of collapse and bailout of European economies (Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece, or Italy); devaluation or collapse of the Euro; loss of faith in the US Dollar as a worldwide trading tool (note that Russia and China recently agreed to price trade deals in their sovereign currencies, not dollars); further “bailouts” and “Quantitative Easing” in the US Economy;  and widespread municipal bond and municipal pension collapse.  None of this may occur, or only a small and isolated portion; however, all the things listed would further bias silver prices higher.

The successful silver investor in 2011 will need good discernment to separate fact from fiction.  Silver has historically been among the most volatile of investments, and although we sit near $31/oz. today, it could be $8 or $80 in six months.  Silver should be only a small portion of an overall investment strategy.  Having said that, in the last four months of 2010 my stocks returned around 9% and my SLV ETF, which I entered in late August, returned 41%.

Although I am invested in the SLV ETF stock I have stopped adding to that investment and am buying the physical metal instead.  Reasons why are below.

Resources I use, with comments:

  1. The Silver Bear Café:  A good clearinghouse for a variety of (sometimes hilarious) commentary on precious metals investing, Federal Reserve issues, general investing issues, etc.  They also have updated prices and sell silver. 
  2. Zero Hedge Blog:  Another blog which is updated daily with silver and financial articles.  The comments, if you have time, can be enlightening.  These are the folks putting out those funny talking bears videos.
  3. Survival Blog:  Although many articles are geared towards surviving societal and financial collapse, they frequently link to articles on silver investing and appear convinced that silver is headed higher.
  4. KITCO:  I run this in the background when the markets are open:  continually updated quotes, including the gold-silver ratio, charts, etc.  I have not bought silver from them.
  5. APMEX:  I have purchased bullion from APMEX and was very pleased with their service and shipping.  They charge a 3% premium for credit card orders.  Their selection is second to none.  I highly recommend them.
  6. Lear Capital:  they have some of the lowest spreads and cheapest bullion prices on the web; although I haven’t used them, I love their prices on Canadian Maple Leafs.

I also have found pawn shops and antique stores to be sources for economical silver:  some operators appear open to negotiation and/or ignorant of the true value of their wares. (I recently bought 20 2009 BU Silver Eagles for $500 from a pawn shop!)  Remember, though, caveat emptor:  Be ready to walk away from dealers who are unwilling to negotiate.
My main holdings are in one-ounce American Silver Eagles, although I have no bias against generic silver rounds like Engelhard, APMEX, or Sunshine Minting.  Call it a personal bias, but I don’t have much interest in junk silver or mining stocks.

What I’m Anticipating from My Silver Investment:

  1.  I plan to at least double my money from my entry point of $19. on the SLV ETF and $27 (dollar cost averaged) on my physical holdings.
  2. I do not plan to add to my SLV or FGDCX silver and gold funds.
  3. I do plan to continue to purchase physical silver (not gold) as long as the gold-silver ratio stays above 25 and the price per ounce stays below $50.
  4. I would start liquidating my silver purchased at $25 if it breaks above $60 or the ratio drops below 25.
  5. My goal is to own 500 ounces of physical silver.
  6. My best guesses for 2011 target price per ounce are:
    1. Low price (no political and minimal financial upheaval):  $42/oz.
    2. Mid-point price (QE3, failure of one or more European economies, bankruptcy and default of 3-5 midsize American towns): $55/oz.
    3. High-point price (collapse of dollar, collapse of Euro, widespread financial upheaval): no limit to how high it could go, easily over $100/oz.

 

My Opinions on the Various Rumors About Silver:

  1.  The Gold-Silver Ratio has been around 16:1 throughout all of recorded history.  It is out of whack right now, being as high as 60:1 earlier in 2010 and sitting at 46:1 at the end of 2010.  Silver is totally underpriced right now:  if the ratio reverts to its historical norm, with gold at $1,425 per ounce silver should be around $90 an ounce right now.  This is the one paradigm I most believe in.  Given the manifold industrial uses of silver, including applications in medicine, solar power, electronics, and computing, I don’t see how silver’s price will not slowly continue to revert to its historical norm.
  2. A major bank has a tremendous naked short position in silver: buying physical silver will create a short squeeze and cause parabolic, explosive upwards price appreciate in silver:  I rate this a big fat maybe.  It sounds too good to be true and thus doesn’t pass the smell test:  it sounds too conspiratorial.  But, then again, a Major bank just took a position in 80% of the copper reserves in Europe (as a hedge against their silver short??!!) so we’ll need to wait and see.
  3.  The SLV ETF is nothing but a Ponzi scheme; since that “major bank”  is their custodian, and we know “major bank” lies about their naked short position, it stands to reason that the SLV ETF also fudges their numbers and does not have the physical reserves they claim they have.  As such, SLV holders are going to be left holding an empty bag.  Possible, but doubtful.  Although there is historical precedent:  isn’t our $1 deposited into the bank allegedly loaned out to 4 other people who have a claim on it?  Still, I’m not selling my SLV or gold mutual funds over this rumor.
  4. Based on #3 above, you must hold your physical silver in your possession and not take the word of a custodian.  Although I’m not convinced about rumor #3, I do believe in the power of an ounce in my hand.  If we get into a SHTF or TEOTWAWKI situation, having silver in hand to barter can mean the difference between getting out of trouble or letting trouble get the better of you.  Some of my holdings are in ½ ounce rounds, just in case I need a loaf of bread post-EMP.
  5. Silver and precious metals in general are just the latest bubble.  The bubble will burst soon and silver will go back to $4 and all the silver bugs will be toast.  Although I don’t deny that the price can go down, and that I am psychologically prepared for a 50% correction to $15 an ounce, I just don’t see it.  Go ask 20 of your friends and family if they have bought silver or gold in the past 6 months, and you’ll likely get 19 puzzled looks.  Also, silver is not tulip bulbs or insertdomainnamehere.com:  it has a millennium-spanning role as currency.

SUMMARY:
In closing, although I do not advocate taking a second mortgage or liquidating a 401(k) to bet the farm on silver, I am very bullish for 2011 to replicate the returns of 2010.  I hope these thoughts and opinions can serve as a springboard to further research and success in your silver investing efforts.

One View of The End Of The World As We Know It, by John Y.

The wonderful thing about the Internet is how many viewpoints and perspectives there are out there that can save a person a lot of time trying to articulate his own.  And I found one that suits me and mine.  If you haven’t taken the time to explore the SurvivalBlog.com do it.  I have barely scratched the surface and have found so many interesting things.  I generally download or copy and paste the stuff that I think has value and add it to my growing digital library.  That’s actually another project that I encourage.  I have multiple digital folders divided by topics and some loose files that I have yet to definitively categorize.

At any rate, I read an article submitted by someone discussing as he ponders the need to retreat or not and why or why not.  His main point is that he has faith in the indomitable American spirit and that the apocalyptic TEOTWAWKI event will not be as some expect; rampant cannibalism, mass gang take over, catastrophic disappearance of modern technologies and comforts.  You can read the article on SurvivalBlog.com and decide for yourself. 

Don’t get me wrong, I still believe that The End Of The World As We Know It is upon us.  I just think that because the world we live in changes every day, each day is the beginning of the next World As We Will Come To Know It.  My goal is to be ready to meet that new world and continue to exist through survival practices.  Remember the Rubicon philosophy that survival isn’t as much about staying alive by returning to a primitive life style, but continuing to live comfortably with new (old) learned skills.  Being prepared means not panicking when others do.  Encouraging those we know to be ready (without completely divulging too much information about our prepared status) so that they may “survive” as well.

I am about half way through the novel “Patriots” authored by the same James Rawles, the guy behind the survivalblog.com web site.  In the beginning, as he sets the scene for the impending event, he introduces two individuals that are to explain what happened in their countries in the eighties and nineties when their respective economies experienced rampant triple digit inflation.  One of the characters was from Argentina.  Well, I was in Argentina in ’81 and ’82 and experienced that event.  I mostly talk about being there during the war, Malvinas or Falkland depending on your preference.  When I got in country one U.S. Dollar exchanged for about 1,500 pesos.  When I left it was about 20,000 pesos to the dollar.  Do the math.  They had already devalued their currency by lopping off two zeros.  The confusion was trying to know the difference between goods priced with a difference in value of 10 X.  There were 10,000 pesos worth 10,000 pesos “law” and 10,000 pesos worth 100 pesos “old” and so on.  Coin currency became so worthless that I was able to acquire quite a collection picking up discarded coins thrown into the dirt.  We found them everywhere we walked in the country dirt roads.  Can you imagine using a $100 bill to pay for a $1 item?  (Note: In this case it was pesos)  That’s what was happening before I got there and it continued beyond the year and a half I was there.  By the time I left we were living on less than half of what we started with at about $90 US per month.  I still remember getting $1,000,000 peso bills from the bank.  Yes, one million pesos, about $20 US.  Okay, so now my point. 

That nation weathered the economic storm with a war thrown in.  It was difficult and almost impossible to get goods from other countries for the consumer markets.  (Not such a bad thing if it were to happen to us. It would mean less foreign goods bought and maybe a return to US making products for US.  Hmmm, more local jobs, less unemployment, less dependence on outside countries.)  There was always food.  I guess the food producers who make a living producing food figured out that if they didn’t make food for the rest they wouldn’t survive either.  In more rural areas people who had a little plot of land had gardens, raised a pig, a goat, a cow.  Buses and trains moved, people rode them, cars were used and people drove them.  That means that there was fuel, all of which was produced in country.  We never had a loss of electrical power, water or other utility services.  Restaurants were open and I remember going to the Argentine version of El Polo Loco to get roasted chicken and cold cuts to make sandwiches at the end of a long day.  Merchants plied their wares.  There were no riots, no massive crime waves, and certainly no cannibalism.  The people were and are basically good and no matter how screwed up the government and economy was they persevered.  We will do the same.  I believe we will do better because since the beginning of our history we have been a nation that overcomes adversity, finds a better way, has more resources, and gets things done.

No doubt there will be shortages, crime, and bad people taking advantage of a bad situation, lack of lots of stuff, and even death.  But, we have to remember, the greatest majority of Americans are good, law abiding, somewhat religious, hard working people who will not just roll over and give up.  Those that have no will to work and continue to live outside the norms of society will become the desperate that will go away naturally or with a little help from the majority.  Government may break down but it won’t disappear completely.  Its power will become more localized, not such a bad thing.  Law may get bounced around but I believe it will survive on its own and may get somewhat simplified on the local level.  Hands may get bloodied but eventually they will just get dirty as we learn to do for ourselves and band together with others doing the same.  The important thing to remember is that being prepared so that you don’t have to act or react out of desperation leaves you with many more options than the alternative of doing nothing and becoming a victim.

Being able to exist with your morals and values in place can be most easily accomplished by doing what we are doing.  I am encouraged by how much more mainstream “survival-ism” has become.  Hundreds of web sites, television shows (Apocalypse PA on the History channel, The Colony) radio talk shows hosts, and on and on.  When I talk to people these days, friends and acquaintances, I am less likely to be looked upon as some kind of Ted Kaczynski or a Jeremiah Johnson want-to-be.  Maybe it’s because I don’t have a beard or because more and more people are starting to get it.  And the more and more who do begin to make me think that in the event of a societal meltdown, for whatever reason, there will be more people less likely to panic.

When we talk about TEOTWAWKI it always seems so “end of times” and final.  But just as every day becomes final a new day begins.  Taking on the challenge of getting prepared for that new day has a tendency to be somewhat overwhelming.  Most people will start, do some investigating, buy a few things, and then get disheartened or disinterested and simply stop.  Their day of preparation comes to an end and they go about their merry way never giving thought to the next day that they aren’t prepared for. 

Survivalism is a combination of knowledge, skills, opportunity and desire.  Survivalism is living out of the ordinary and usually in an extreme situation.  Survivalism is like a diet.  A real diet requires changing your life style to accommodate the goal (of weight loss or better health).  Survivalism first requires becoming a “Prepper” with the goal of changing your life style so that surviving in abnormal conditions becomes second nature.  It becomes a mindset that directs you each day to be better prepared than the day before.  It is not a onetime activity that you can say you have completed and now sit back and wait for something to happen. 

I have been at this preparedness thing for more than nine years and have learned that there is no end to being prepared and no final step that says that you have arrived. 
Everyday should have one or two activities that help educate or enlighten you to the possibility of an End Of The World As We Know It event.  Check out a new web site, read and do what others have done or are doing and incorporate that knowledge and experience into your plan.  Learn a new skill; knots, fire starting, marksmanship, cooking outdoors, impromptu shelters, water purification techniques, living without electricity, etc.  It’s really about doing something.  Meeting the challenge of life changing events head on and conquering them.  Not losing to that which would compromise your morals or standards of normal life.

So, lest anyone think that I am truly panicked, I am not.  However, I am more, now than ever, convinced that it is still better to “expect the worst and hope for the best.”  It is always better to be prepared years in advanced than to find yourself unprepared a minute too late.  And never, ever think that you know it all.

I ask you, “What are you doing today to be better prepared?”  Myself, I will be going to Svendsen’s Marine Supply to pick up some PRI-G.  If you are curious to know what it is, do some research on the web.   I will also be adding to my digital library, inventorying my reloading supplies and survival equipment, scheduling some more range time, planning some outdoor activities for practicing, reading the hundreds of downloads and trying some of them out, reprioritizing my needs, and continuing to spread the word.  I hope that you are doing something similar. Spread the word!

Letter Re: Lessons from the Tunisian Revolution

Greetings Mr. Rawles,
In the ongoing chaos of the Tunisia revolution we are able to watch a real life SHTF scenario being played out. Well worth the time to observe and learn from. Even though the head of the government has fled, it’s body is still alive and flailing creating havoc. The resulting chaos has caused breakdowns in food distribution and security as evidenced by the following quotes in the Washington Times. I thought it interesting that how quickly the neighborhoods have formed their own militias to protect themselves.

The following are some quotes from a Washington Times article:

“Ordinary Tunisians concentrated on two key needs Sunday — food and security.”

“Many scoured the capital for food. Most shops remained closed Sunday, others were looted, and bread and milk were running short.”

“Overnight patrols were being organized in both wealthy and working-class neighborhoods.” 

Regards, – Ralph N. from Washington State.

Avalanche Lily’s Bedside Book Pile

Here are the current top-most items on my perpetual bedside pile:

  • I just finished reading the novel Life As We Knew It, a 2006 “young adult” novel by Susan Beth Pfeffer.  It is a survivalist story.  An asteroid strikes the Moon, knocking it out of orbit and closer to the earth.  As a result, the earth’s gravitational forces are changed, causing high tides, tsunamis, earthquakes and major volcanic eruptions.  The coastal cities world-wide are wiped out, weather patterns are completely disrupted, causing floods and droughts, terrible thunderstorms and blizzards and earlier, colder winters.  Food is scarce.  The story is a series of journal entries (along the lines of The Diary of Anne Frank) written by a 16 year old girl (Miranda) chronicling  how she and her family and neighbors experience the first nine months following the asteroid strike.  Miranda explores her many thoughts and feelings of coping with the disaster: lack of abundant food, death of friends, illness, work, personal religious views, her relationships with a very religious and a very secular friend, her brothers and mother. From the first page, this book was a gripping read, and very informative in the areas of stocking up, preparing for winter, and self-rationing of food.  They nearly starved to death.  The story was rather depressing to me.  It makes one examine how prepared they would be physically, emotionally, and spiritually in event of a long term disaster.  Would I survive?  I found myself pausing often and wondering how my beliefs lined up with Miranda’s actions and if I would do the same or differently.   I hope we never have to go through any times such as these of which I’ve read about recently: major natural disasters, economic crash or war. I just hope and pray that God will continue to have mercy on us all. Our nation is overdue for some serious discipline from the Almighty Father.  I’m done with reading survivalist fiction for a while.  I am now more than fully aware of the possible grid-down causing scenarios and their aftermaths.  Its getting a bit heavy for me.  So for the next few weeks I am going to concentrate on becoming more knowledgeable and skilled in practical living. Therefore,  I will be concentrating on non-fiction preparedness and homesteading books, some history, and homeschool topics.
  • Echoing my preceding statement, some of the young’uns and I have started watching Homesteading for Beginners DVD series. These are three excellent educational videos produced by Mark and Erin Harrison, in Wisconsin. This is a young Christian homeschooling family with five children. Their DVD series deals with the basics of Homesteading. Nearly all of the teaching segments includes participation of their children. It is wonderful to see them all working together and sharing in the bounty of their efforts. They cover topics like milking a cow, making home dairy products, raised bed gardening, canning, butchering livestock, meat canning, making homemade noodles, baking bread, sprouting, root cellaring, making homemade vitamins, maple syrup production, and much more. Most segments are accompanied with instrumental Christian music: guitar, banjo and violin. Much of what they know they learned from their Amish neighbors. A trailer of their first DVD is available on YouTube. Their web site is: HomesteadCommunityPost.com. I will have a few more comments after I’ve finished watching all three of their DVDs. So far, I find them to be wonderful and very informative. Our Young’uns are enjoying watching the Harrison’s children doing all of these activities.
  • I just read How to Stay Alive in the Woods by Bradford Angier. This is considered a classic book on outdoor survival skills. I highly recommend it. Oh by the way, the edition of this book that Jim bought several years ago has a unique green rubber cover that feels very strange in your hands. (A bit of a novelty, but I suppose it does make the book more durable.) Jim was disappointed that it was printed in China.
  • Jim and I are still watching Northern Exposure episodes on DVD once every few nights. Don’t look for any great outdoor survival lessons in the show, but it can be depended upon for plenty of humor and witty dialogue.

Economics and Investing:

Sue C. suggested this: The Black Swan Events of 2011?

RVL sent: Record $14 trillion-plus debt weighs on Congress. The article begins: “The United States just passed a dubious milestone: Government debt surged to an all-time high, topping $14 trillion — $45,300 for each and everyone in the country.”

Thomas Sowell: Honest Answer to Government Woes is Bankruptcy

Wait for complete package on debt crisis: Merkel

Weak Dollars and Strong Commodities? (Thanks to John R. for the link.)

Items from The Economatrix:

Homelessness Increases As Help Decreases  

10 Things That Would Be Different If The Federal Reserve Had Never Been Created

Chinese President Hu Disses the Dollar; Says U.S. System is a ‘Product of the Past’

Odds ‘n Sods:

China’s control of rare-earth metals poses risk to U.S. solar future.

   o o o

Rourke spotted this: Inexpensive perimeter alarm. Keep in mind that those units are NOT weatherproof, so they should be installed in weatherproof enclosures, and buy plenty of spares!

   o o o

The Queensland Floods: Next shock will be high food prices

   o o o

James C. recommended this videotaped interview with Dimitri Orlov: “America Will Collapse”. It should come as no surprise to SurvivalBlog readers that Orlov predicts very high crime rates and that country dwellers will fare better than urbanites. He calls the collapse unavoidable, and urges people to prepare and develop a sense of community.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Since it’s not considered polite, and surely not politically-correct to come out and actually say that greed gets wonderful things done, let me go through a few of the millions of examples of the benefits of people trying to get more for themselves. There’s probably widespread agreement that it’s a wonderful thing that most of us own cars. Is there anyone who believes that the reason we have cars is because Detroit assembly line workers care about us? It’s also wonderful that Texas cattle ranchers make the sacrifices of time and effort caring for steer so that New Yorkers can have beef on their supermarket shelves. It is also wonderful that Idaho potato growers arise early to do back-breaking work in the hot sun to ensure that New Yorkers also have potatoes on their supermarket shelves. Again, is there anyone who believes that ranchers and potato growers, who make these sacrifices, do so because they care about New Yorkers? They might hate New Yorkers. New Yorkers have beef and potatoes because Texas cattle ranchers and Idaho potato growers care about themselves and they want more for themselves. How much steak and potatoes would New Yorkers have if it all depended on human love and kindness? I would feel sorry for New Yorkers. Thinking this way bothers some people because they are more concerned with the motives behind a set of actions rather than the results. This is what Adam Smith, the father of economics, meant in The Wealth of Nations when he said, ‘It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interests.'” – Dr. Walter E. Williams

Note from JWR:

Today is Martin Luther King Day in The United States. While his civil rights goals were admirable, he was a documented chronic plagiarist. Because of that mar on his record, I don’t think that he is worthy of remembrance for a national holiday. My suggestion is that the holiday be replaced with Dr. Walter E. Williams Day. In my estimation, he is a man that is much more worthy of admiration. In his honor, all of SurvivalBlog’s Quotes of the Day for this week will be quotes from Dr. Williams.

Pending Magazine Ban Legislation in the U.S.

Just as I anticipated, in the wake of the Tucson shootings, the mainstream media and the congresscritters are on the war path! Mayor Bloomberg has the propaganda machine running overdrive with this week’s Bloomberg Businessweek cover story.  The cover of the Jan. 17, 2011 issue of Bloomberg Businessweek is midnight black with nothing but a Glock 19 pictured and the words “The Killing Machine” in white boldly superimposed over the gun.  The article summary states “America’s Gun – How Glock became the weapon of choice for U.S. cops, gun enthusiasts, and mass killers/psychopaths like alleged Tucson gunman Jared Loughner.”

A recent article in Politico outlines the draconian terms of congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy’s recently-announced magazine ban bill. (The bill will be formally introduced on January 18th.) According to Politico, the new law would not just permanently ban the import or manufacture of 11+ round magazines, but it would also outlaw their sale or transfer–even those that are obtained before the law takes effect. This flies in the face of a heretofore fairly uniform feature of American jurisprudence: the grandfather clause. This will set the bill up for an almost certain court challenge. Leaving dealers and private citizens holding millions of un-sellable magazines in effect constitutes a “legislative taking” that is wicked and despicable. (With the exception of drug bans, grandfather clauses are considered standard practice in the U.S. for laws restricting everything from R-12 Freon to pre-building code houses, to live cheetahs to machineguns to elephant ivory.) Could you imagine a law that said that it would be illegal to pass down to your grandchildren a family heirloom piano, just because it had ivory keys? That is effectively what Rep. McCarthy has proposed, for what she calls “high capacity” magazines! (OBTW, they are more accurately called “full capacity” or “standard capacity.”)

Last week, Delaware Senator Ted Kaufman said: “We should all agree there’s no earthly reason to have a 30-shot magazine.” Well, Senator Kaufman, I’d like you to come huckleberry picking with me, out here in grizzly bear country. Or go walk a patrol with some American infantrymen in Afghanistan or for that matter with the Guardian Angels in Dallas, Texas. Then you will indeed see an earthly reason to have a 30-shot magazine! Meanwhile, veteran gun grabber Senator Frank Lautenberg was recently quoted as saying: “The only reason to have 33 bullets loaded in a handgun is to kill a lot of people very quickly.” How about stopping a charging bear? Or stopping a charging meth addict? These legislators are out of touch with reality. Please contact your Senators, and insist that they kill any new “gun control” legislation before it ever makes it out of committee.

A magazine ban would limit us to neutered 10-round (reduced capacity) magazines. So what am I supposed to say to a charging brown bear or grizzly bear? “Time out! Wait, while I reload.”

The ban is being drafted by Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, who is absolutely clueless about firearms terminology. (She thinks that a barrel shroud is a “shoulder thing that goes up”). In an interview with NPR, Rep. McCarthy said: “We’re not dealing about guns here. We’re dealing about a piece of equipment that goes to the gun. I think when you think about just common sense here, large capacity clips that can basically, in my opinion, be weapons of mass destruction, should not be available to the average citizen. They will be available to our military. They will be available to our police officers.” Oh I see, only “trained professionals” should have access to them. We, the lowly peons should not be entrusted with coercive force.

As an aside, hearing the ignorant nabobs in congress and the mainstream media talking about banning “clips” that can hold more than 10 “bullets” makes me cringe. I find this akin to hearing George W. Bush mispronouncing the word nuclear as “nuke-you-lur”, or hearing Congressman Hank Johnson pontificating on the risk of a “capsize” of the island of Guam because of overpopulation.

These politicians seem very intent on “closing loopholes” and enacting what they call “reasonable” “reforms” (read: restrictions) on our rights. What is really going on is that the legislators want to deprive the citizenry of effective modern arms, but retain them for The Powers That Be. Also beware that there are legislative threats at the state level. For example, read this: Reactionary Gun Laws Being Proposed in South Carolina After Tucson, Arizona Shooting. Be vigilant. Contact you legislators frequently, or our liberty may slip away.

Just in case a magazine ban becomes law, I recommend that you immediately stock up on your lifetime supply of full capacity magazines! Also, be prepared to legally transfer, by means of a dated document, the majority of your magazines to your children and grandchildren, before any new ban is signed into law. Do an inventory all of your 11+ round magazines, and make detailed lists in separate “Completed Transfer of Magazine Ownership” documents for each child. Have each witnessed by two adults who are not members of your family, and then have the documents notarized. Unless your children have this equivalent of a Bill of Sale, they won’t be able to prove that they legally owned their magazines before the bill becomes law.

Again, please regularly contact your congressmen and senators, and express your concern about this issue.

Letter Re: Observations on Atlanta’s January 2011 Ice Storm

Hi JWR:

One of the parts of SurvivalBlog that I enjoy the most is when folks contribute their real life experiences after going through some sort of hardship. Reading the examples from others helps me to fine tune my preps. Let me participate by providing my observations from the ice storm, amusingly titled Snowpocalypse 2011, that hit Atlanta recently. The roads were impassible due to the city’s lack of snow removal equipment, and pretty much the entire city was stranded in their houses. What would’ve been a blip of a storm in the north ended up crippling this city, and everything ground to a halt.   I started creating this list of observations for myself, but decided to share. Here they are, in no particular order:  

• The statistic I’ve frequently heard of “every family has only three days of food on hand” always sounded like bunk to me. Who goes grocery shopping every three days? Shopping once a week seems more realistic, so I figure a week’s supply of food is in everyone’s home. However, consider the pattern where Family A typically shops on Mondays, Family B shops on Tuesdays, Family C on Wednesdays, etc. Imagine what happens if the stores are closed for three days in a row, like they were due to this storm. Everybody that missed their typical shopping day now has to go, and the stores were cleared out. That, plus the expected panic buying, happened here. Imagine, say, 40 feet of shelving without a single item of food on it. I saw photos. It was real.  

• Injuries exponentially increase stress, especially if it is impossible to get to a doctor. A family member developed a wound that needed seven stitches, and I had no way of making that happen for five days. I’ve recently purchased a skin staple gun.  

• No matter how deep your larder, chances are excellent that you will not have something very important when you need it. In my case, it was antibiotics. I had topicals, but I needed something more significant because the above-mentioned wound got infected. Mentally prepare yourself for the idea that you won’t have everything, and when you do discover that you are missing something, the idea won’t come as such a shock.  

• A routine is a powerful thing, and three days without the ability to leave the house is enough for cabin fever. It would have been much worse without Internet or television, and even that got old after visiting all of my usual web sites. Have something to read. Have a lot to read. I personally suggest studying some sort of skill during your normal work/school hours, then having fiction or entertainment to read during your normal off hours. It helps keep a semblance of a routine.  

• Keep enough of your regular food for at least every other meal. My wife and I feared a power outage, so we ate all of our typical “Sunday fancy meal” foods from the freezer in succession, and it made me sick.  

• Expect typical governmental lunacy. Some of Atlanta’s main streets downtown weren’t touched for days because the roads themselves belong to the state. The city said clearing the roads was the state’s job/expense, and the state said that since the roads were downtown, they were the city’s responsibility. So nothing happened.  

• People who make poor decisions during normal circumstances will continue to make poor decisions, only now the impact will be worse. Despite repeated pleas by the local government not to drive, folks went out anyway, and got stuck or crashed. Some were killed. Those stranded/abandoned cars prevented the few plow trucks the city has from clearing the roadways. Also, the crashes were so frequent, the police said they would respond to accidents only if somebody involved was injured because they were overwhelmed by the volume. If no injuries took place, you were on your own.  

• Your family is just as stressed as you are. Don’t be at each other’s throats. If you’ve been with your spouse long enough, you know what will make him/her happy, even if it is just a small gesture. Do them. Such efforts will pay dividends when the crisis is over, too.  

• Those with alcohol will drink it, to the point where it was treated like a mandatory vacation. I frequented an Atlanta-based message board online, and was surprised to discover how many people posting said they were doing not much more than spending the entire time drunk. I would say that 65% percent of the posters said so. I don’t have anything against alcohol, but decided to spend the duration sober, if only to stay sharp. If the huge tree in my back yard fell on the house due to the ice load, I didn’t want to have to evacuate my house while inebriated. WTSHTF, I would expect the same sort of people to react in the same manner, at least until they run out. See my point above about the people with poor decision making skills. In this case, they knew the ice would eventually melt, and things would go back to normal. When it is TEOTWAWKI, these folks might make some unpredictable choices.  

• A job that can be worked from home is a huge benefit. I racked up hours even though I wasn’t able to get to the office.   • Ice is the great equalizer. Traffic was snarled, cars abandoned, making roads impassible. Everyone should have chains for their vehicles, even if they live in the south and own a 4X4. A recent news story said that 49 of the states had snow. It can happen anywhere. My four wheel drive was parked because I didn’t have chains. I live on a slight hill, and a neighbor of mine had his car slide down the hill. Bear in mind that no one was in it at the time, as it was parked and the doors were locked. It just slid away. He managed to run after and catch it in time before it hit another car. If anything, this observation should reveal just how slippery the roads were.  

• Down here, some houses are poorly insulated compared to northern levels, and many heaters weren’t be able to keep up when the weather got record-breaking cold. Be prepared for the idea of wearing outdoor clothes indoors. A co-worker of mine had her furnace fail because of the stress load. She spent three days freezing (temperatures were in the teens) because the service technicians weren’t able to get to her. An alternate source of heat would’ve saved her a load of turmoil. Keeping her equipment maintained would’ve been a good idea, too. She confessed that she skips the typical service checks to save money. Guess that didn’t work out so well.  

• Unless you are very fit, everything will be sore as you are forced to vary from your daily routine. Have pain reliever ready. I’m a black belt, and consider my balance exceptional. That said, I still slipped and fell on the ice. It can happen to anyone. My training included the ability to take a fall and not get hurt, so I came out ok. Not to say that I wasn’t sore, of course. I’ll take sore over a broken bone any day. The news reported of one poor gentleman that fell and was killed.  

• Have enough preps in your home to last at least a couple of weeks, even if there is a store within walking distance of your house. Depending on the circumstances, even three blocks will be an impossible distance. I read stories about locals who fell on the ice and broke bones. Also, not only will the stores get cleared out by panicked buyers, some employees were not able to make it to work so the stores couldn’t open, and in other cases, resupply trucks were not be able to restock due to the roads.  

• Services, such as mail or trash pickup, stopped. Public transportation didn’t run, schools were closed. I haven’t had mail for an entire week, and UPS and FedEx suspended deliveries completely. That’s a shame, because I had some stuff on order that would’ve been nice to have. Banks were also closed, which ended up no big deal because not only could you not get to them, few stores were open anyway so you had no place to spend your money. A town north of here had a boil water advisory, for whatever reason. I wonder how they got the word out if people were without power. A Berkey, with a policy of using it regularly instead of just emergencies, would probably be pretty useful for those folks.  

• Local television newscasters couldn’t get in to the stations, and were posting their on-the-scene news reports online by using the video capture provided from their iPhones.  

• Emergency services were also compromised. An ambulance is nothing but a big car, and in some circumstances, they weren’t able to get where they needed to go either. I saw a fire truck, with chains on, stuck. The crews were using shovels to clear a path under the wheels, one foot at a time. Slow, hard work.  

• A retreat is useless if you can’t get to it. Pre-stage your preps there, if you have one, but have something to fall back on at your regular home. You might find that you have to dive into those reserves unexpectedly.  

• Fortunately I never lost power or water/sewer, though some did lose electricity. If the lights had gone out in mass quantities, with impassible roads and well below freezing temperatures, people would’ve died all over the city. There would’ve been no way to extricate them from their homes, and if the outage was wide spread enough, no place to put them.  

• There is one bright spot in the story. In my area, neighbors relied on each other, communicated, and provided assistance to each other. My neighborhood has a Google message board, and if anybody learned any useful knowledge, it was passed along to the group. I highly recommend setting up one of these, no matter how big your community is. Our group is populated by a wide variety of socioeconomic levels, and it still works. Even if no useful information is conveyed, the gallows humor passed along provided a great stress reliever and offered the “We’re all in this together” attitude.   Hopefully this list will provide value to someone. Stay safe! – John C. in Atlanta

Letter Re: Resources for Preppers in South Africa

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Dear Editor:
This letter is a primer for new preppers in South Africa. The reason for this is simple, we don’t have the equivalent of a SurvivalBlog in South Africa and our family and confidants have had to find out the hard way where and what to buy. (Subtle hint to a South Africa-based prepper looking for a home business)

That said, this is not to be considered a definitive resource for the South Africa prepper, it is a list of known suppliers to us that we have purchased from, specifically for reasons of preparing. We have never had a hassle with these suppliers. Most suppliers are in the Gauteng area, but there are a number that are national, you will need to maintain your own OPSEC, as none of these suppliers knowingly supply the local ‘prepper movement’. We typically use reasons of self-sustainability, Camping/off-road trips, farm security or one of our own businesses if the situation/reason fits, if any direct questions are asked. We find giving an impression of ….. (choose one of the above) without outright lying is best, people make up their own stories. Lets jump into the list. This is in no particular order, as it flows. All of these suppliers will ship to you if you cannot find a local supplier.

Plastic Food Grade Containers.
Trim Plastics supplies a whole range of food grade plastic buckets. We have found the rectangular 10 and 20 litre containers to be perfect for storage as they can stack higher (7 high for 20 Lt and 12 high for 10 Lt.) They use less space in storage and seal really well. I think it’s the corners that assists with the strength. Unlike elsewhere in the world we do not have the luxury of free buckets, as they are typically scrounged by staff working in a ‘free bucket’ environment. (Cash or EFT)

Glass ‘canning jars’.
Consol jars are similar to the Mason jars in the US and Canada. Consol jars are often free for the taking in many older homes. It’s the seals that are hugely expensive. We have found the most cost effective solution is to standardise on a single size jar (Cross & Blackwell Mayo jars for example, get your friends to collect for you) and then purchase a few boxes of single use lids from www.bonpak.co.za the lids are 1/20th the cost of Consol seals. These can often be reused if the seal is still perfect. Note: We have not used these for pressure canning. Stick to Consol Jars and lids for that. (Cash EFT and Cards)

Your Local Fresh Produce Market is a great place to get bargains on in-season veggies for a canning exercise. We use AppleQueens at the JHB Fresh Produce Market. We plan a trip in once every second month and all spend part of the weekend processing at a fraction of the cost of buying elsewhere. Don’t go to the trouble of getting a buying card, the prices are not much different from the market floor or a wholesaler. Fresh produce markets also have a host of supporting businesses (for farmers) where you can get bulk packaging, bulk catering items and growing resources like seedling trays, ties, bulk seed (Hybrid) and irrigation systems. etc, so take your time and see what is available. (Most stores are Cash Only)

Grains.
Find your local Co-Op and purchase your bulk grains like wheat and whole mielies (Corn) there. Typically sold as Boer Koring or just plain Wheat, you will be paying about R200 per 50 Kgs. The same goes for mielies  but you are almost certain to get GMO Corn, unless you grow your own. (Depends on the store) Your Co-Op is also a great place to get veterinary medication at a good price. They also sell disposable syringes, gloves, needles and multi-use ‘sharps’. I have tried the multi-use sharps (B Co injection) it’s a bit more painful than the single use needles, but they work.

Dry Ice, find your local Ice-cream factory and buy from there.

Heirloom seeds
Contact the guys at www.livingseeds.co.za. We have had great service from these guys, all their seed is grown in South Africa and it’s a good local business to support. There is also a lot of useful info on keeping your seed pure from season to season and generally being self-sustainable. (EFT and credit card)

Beans and Lentils
Akhalwaya’s is a great place to buy bulk storage beans, lentils and spices. If you are outside of Gauteng then do a google for your local spice wholesaler. Spices, oils, beans, wheat, rice and the like are available there. I always leave with more than I planned to buy. (Cash and EFT)

Oils and Chemicals
Rebound Chemicals. These two ladies provide a great service and supply a wide range of chemicals at rock bottom prices. Food grade oils (Coconut, olive etc) and chemicals for making soaps and detergents, they will even supply you with recipes if you would like to start a home based soap making business. (Cash and EFT)

Another edible oil supplier is Pridon, they also have no web site, just e-mail Graham at pridon@isat.co.za (016 365 6073) they supply in bulk and are a good place to lay in your edible oils or Pomace olive oil for soap making. (Cash and EFT)

Essential Oils

www.essentialoils.co.za a great range and one of the most cost effective suppliers. We have been using them for years. (Credit card and EFT)

Off grid power. We use two sites/suppliers www.sustainable.co.za and www.redrhino.co.za  They stock all one needs, the service and prices are by far the best we have found. A self-installed solar geyser (hot water system) from Red Rhino is cheaper than taking advantage of the Eskom rebate with a more expensive dealer installed system, as long as you are handy and can do-it-yourself. (Cash, EFT and credit card)

Solar water pumping. www.allpower.co.za this is a great locally made solar (PV) pump that can be repaired by most handymen. It uses commonly available spares in most motor spares shops. Proprietary parts are freely available from the manufacturer at a low cost. Well worth the investment. Get a spare controller board in case of a lightning strike, as well as extra diaphragms. (The system comes with a free set, replace every 12-24 months). I really like the fact that this system is user serviceable, important in a SHTF scenario. We used their Gauteng based dealer www.sunlec.co.za and are extremely happy with their service, they delivered onsite (120+km) and even supplied couplings that were not charged for to suit our unique installation. (Cash and EFT)

Security, we use a number of suppliers here. Oh, I’d give an eyetooth to be able to shop in the States but we need to maintain OPSEC locally and work with what we have. Maybe the Dollar will crash one day soon and we can get it on the cheap…)

For Mil Spec gear to drool over http://www.msequipment.co.za prepare to flatten your wallet, this site can hurt. (Cash and EFT)

Mil Spec Clothing and tents www.armystores.co.za they do postal orders which is cool. (Cash, credit card and EFT) Another option which we are exploring is to purchase a bolt of Mil Spec Camo material to make clothes on patterns. We are waiting for our first order to be delivered. Just find your largest haberdashery and say you need it for a bush camp that you are setting up…. Mmmm could very well be true, depending on how you interpret it.

Second-hand reloading kit at reasonable prices (New as well)  Try Craig at the Blunderbuss Tel 011 867 0370 Fax :  011 867 0369 E-mail : blunderbuss@telkomsa.net  (Sorry they have no web site) they also stock a range of militaria, however we have found their Military clothing to be a bit steep on price, but they do have some really cool original WWII stuff. They are a great resource for spare mags and additional (old and new) Mil Spec kit. If you need something rare or unusual they should be your first stop. (EFT, Cash and credit card)

Pick up brass at your local range or purchase brass from their shop depending on the range. We pick up everything that we can lay our hands on and put it in storage, you never know when its barter value will go through the roof. Also lay on some extra dies in common calibres and make sure you keep loading data for all of them.

As an aside, most larger gun shops have a large collection of spares for firearms. (They break-down and/or weld-up most of the weapons handed in by gun owners that did not want to go through the hassle of the new Firearms Control Act) You can often sort through crates of spares and mags looking for the peaches.

Reloading Components.
Contact www.questbullets.com for limited range of superb quality locally made rifle bullets at a good price. Don’t phone Oom (Uncle) Petrus, he prefers email. For any other components buy them cash from your local gun shops in staggered amounts and please stick to the law. (Credit card and EFT)

OTC Medical supplies.
We get some from www.dischem.co.za and some from www.clicks.co.za. Both of these national pharmacies require a verbal ID (Name, address and ID number) when ordering basic over the counter (OTC) medications. Create a pseudonym that you can easily remember, they don’t ask for a visual ID. Don’t buy your first aid kit supplies here, rather check out one or both sites that are mentioned below.

Online suppliers for medical kit and hardware that we have used with great success are. www.yms.co.za (They also supply security related products) and www.myomed.co.za

Hand powered equipment and antique tools.
Find your local smallholders’ livestock auction. Typically held on a Saturday in rural / Peri-urban areas. These auctions most often have a flea market attached to them that sell all manner of things. Get there early and browse the flea market. We have found some real gems like hand powered grain grinders, scythes and old wood working tools.

For anything else keep a watch on www.gumtree.co.za, at www.bidorbuy.co.za and at www.junkmail.co.za those three sites will often turn up an item that you are looking for. If it’s not urgent and the price seems a bit steep, the seller will often re-list at a lower price, if it’s up for three weeks you could probably negotiate quite nicely. Regards, – Joe Ordinary Voortrekker

Economics and Investing:

A chart published by The Financial Times says it all: America: Paydown problems

You’re insane if you don’t own gold, investors told

Muni Bonds Crashing For Third Straight Day, And This Is The Worst Yet. (A hat tip to Yishai for the link.)

John R. sent this by Gonzalo Lira: Why Democracies Will Always Go Bankrupt

The Latest Gold Fraud Bombshell: Canada’s Only Bullion Bank Gold Vault Is Practically Empty. (Thanks to Michael H. for the link.)

Items from The Economatrix:

At Least 10 States Have Introduced Gold-As-Currency Bills

Industrial Production Rises By Most in Five Months  

Holiday Spending “Record” Not As Good As It Looks  

Wholesale Food And Energy Prices Rise  

US Mint Reports Unprecedented Buying Spree Of Physical Silver  

Bad Real Estate News Ignored To Spin Bright Future  

Odds ‘n Sods:

Pierre M. sent a link to a fascinating blog written by a wife and mother who lives deep in the interior of Alaska: The Last Frontier. Their main access to the outside world is via bush pilot flights. The blog is posted only sporadically, since they have to fly in the gasoline to run their generator. Now that is remote!

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Leading computer expert warns of cyber attack on National Grid. (Thanks to Dave B. for the link.)

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From Chris S. comes a news account of YOYO time: Brazil Mudslide Survivors Carry Food, Water to Those in Remote Village.The mudslides have reportedly taken 600 lives.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“The essence of exchange is the transfer of title. Here’s the essence of what happens when I buy a gallon of milk from my grocer. I tell him that I hold title to these three dollars and he holds title to the gallon of milk. Then, I offer: If you transfer your title to that gallon of milk, I will transfer title to these three dollars. Whenever there’s voluntary exchange, the only clear conclusion that a third party can make is that both parties, in their opinion, perceived themselves as better off as a result of the exchange; otherwise, they wouldn’t have exchanged. I was free to keep my three dollars, and the grocer was free to keep his milk. If you think it’s obvious that both parties benefit from voluntary exchange, then how come we hear pronouncements about worker exploitation? Say you offer me a wage of $2 an hour. I’m free to either accept or reject your offer. So what can be concluded if I’m seen working for you at $2 an hour? One clear conclusion is that I must have seen myself as being better off taking your offer than my next best alternative. All other alternatives were less valuable, or else why would I have accepted the $2 offer? How appropriate is it to say that you’re exploiting me when you’ve given me my best offer? Rather than using the term exploitation, you might say you wish I had more desirable alternatives. While people might characterize $2 an hour as exploitation, they wouldn’t say the same about $50 an hour. Therefore, for the most part, when people use the term exploitation in reference to voluntary exchange, they simply disagree with the price. If we equate price disagreement with exploitation, then exploitation is everywhere. For example, I not only disagree with my salary, I also disagree with the prices of Gulfstream private jets. By no means do I suggest that you purge your vocabulary of the term exploitation. It’s an emotionally valuable term to use to trick others, but in the process of tricking others, one need not trick himself. I’m reminded of charges of exploitation Mrs. Williams used to make early on in our 44-year marriage. She’d charge, “Walter, you’re using me!” I’d respond by saying, “Honey, sure, I’m using you. If I had no use for you, I wouldn’t have married you in the first place.” How many of us would marry a person for whom we had no use? As a matter of fact, the problem of the lonely hearts among us is that they can’t find someone to use them.” – Dr. Walter E. Williams