The Golden Hours, by Brad H.

The three main factors in determining who lives and who dies WTSHTF are situational awareness, overcoming inertia, and dumb luck. The first two you have some control over. The third is always going to be beyond your control, except for Divine intervention, so don’t worry about it. If you are at mid-span on the Golden Gate Bridge when Al Qaeda sets off a nuke in San Francisco, or “The Big One” hits. In such cases, acceptance of God’s will is all you have to do to prepare.

For those who are lucky enough to not be killed immediately when disaster strikes, how you have trained yourself to handle the first two factors will make all the difference in the world. The first two of these factors are well known and accepted. Believing and accepting what has now become inevitable should motivate the serious survivor. There are three parts to being adequately prepared:

First: Acceptance of the seriousness of the situation. Most of us are already there or you wouldn’t even be reading this. You have to accept the probability that there will be a major crisis befall our nation in the near future.

Second: Initiate Preparations: Having accepted the first premise as a literal fact, you must start as soon as possible to “put away the things of a child” and start behaving as a responsible adult. This means beginning to acquire those supplies that will give you and your family the very best chance of surviving the impending collapse.

They are: Water; Food; Weapons; Medical Supplies; Transportation; Fuel; Shelter; Skills.

Third: A Backup Plan. The third level of preparation is distinct from the first two. If you have already taken care of the first two parts, this will be supplemental to your plan. If not, this will offer your best chance of surviving the crisis. You have to put yourself in the best possible position to to take advantage of what I shall refer to as “the golden hours” which occur at the very beginning of any crisis. The “golden hours” is a concept that has gotten very little, if any, ink in all the survivalist literature, both real and fictional.

Anyone familiar with emergency medicine is aware of the term “the golden hour”. This refers to that first hour following an injury until the initiation of medical treatment. In most cases, the ability to get the patient into a medical facility within the first hour raises the chances of survival exponentially.

The same will be true of those last minute preparations an alert person can make who recognizes the magnitude of the impending crisis in its’ earliest stages. As in most things in life, the majority of the population will not be able to process and accept the severity of the crisis until it is too late to do them any real good. In other words, most people won’t recognize “it” when “it” first happens. And most of those who do get a glimmer will in all probability delay acting, and that delay will most probably be fatal in any real TEOTWAWKI scenario.

Even for those few who do get a sudden dose of clarity, most will also fail absent prior planning.

Why are almost all last minute actions doomed to failure in major crisis situation? Because by the time the average person realizes there is a real crisis, their ability to mitigate the effect will be so severely compromised as to be almost useless to them. e.g. if you need a six month supply of food to survive, it is too late to acquire it once the trucks have stopped running and the markets have been emptied.

Think of it this way: You, having been jolted out of your American Idol reveries, finally decide the national and world situation dictates you order a years worth of freeze dried food for your family. You immediately place your order. You are informed that due to the increased demand, there will be a delay of 60 days in shipping. Being aware that all suppliers are experiencing the same delays, you go ahead, place your order, and hold your breath. You are now at the mercy of fate for at least 60 days. 59 days into your waiting period TSHTF. No food is shipping. No trucks are running. You now find yourself in the worst possible position, appreciating how serious the crisis is, and unable to do anything about it, except for those golden hours I mentioned earlier.

Effective preparation requires forethought and planning, but forethought and planning are not sufficient in and of themselves to keep you alive in most long term crises. Thinking and planning are only a prolog to action. “Think; Plan; Act” needs to become your credo.

The concept of “the golden hours” encompasses at least two aspects of survival preparation. First, as a supplementary action for a person who has already made some preparations, and second, as a last ditch back up plan for those who foolishly waited too long to start their preparations.

There are basically three approaches to preparation from which to chose, and these three approaches will encompass virtually the entire population, whether they want to be there or not:

Approach Number One: Preparations made well in advance of a crisis, which provide the very best chance of survival whatever the crisis might be;

Approach Number Two: Preparations made in the last golden hours at the very beginning of a crisis supplemental to a preexisting survival plan, or as a second best alternative, but only for those who are smart enough to quickly grasp the situation and act decisively thereon;

Approach Number Three: Attempted preparations that are made too late to provide any security to those poor individuals too unaware or slow witted to anticipate and/or recognize the crisis for what it is.

The place you do not want to be is in the third category. Being in the third category will in all probability get you and your family dead in very short order in a TEOTWAWKI crisis.

So what kind of planning will help you take the maximum advantage in the golden hours? Here are a few a examples, and I want to stress these are just my own examples, and how I have addressed potential problems for my own family. You might have totally different priorities, but regardless, the better you can position yourself to take advantage of the golden hours, the better your chances are of surviving.

Transportation:

I have assessed the potential threats to my own families transportation as being a fuel shortage crisis and/or an EMP attack on the U.S.

We have an 1992 GMC 2500 Sierra 4×4 which is our primary G.O.O.D. vehicle. I keep it well-maintained and topped off all the time. (For those of you too young to remember the 1973 gas crisis, you missed what can only be described in the words of our “Dear Leader” as a really good “teachable moment”.) Being well aware of the probability of a major natural disaster (I live in earthquake and wild land fire country) and to the impending economic collapse, I have taken other precautions so as to cover as many bases as possible.

EMP Preparations:

(For those readers who don’t know about electromagnetic pulse (EMP), do a web search. This is something you need to know and understand.)

Being aware of the possibility of an EMP attack on the US, I have acquired spare electronic control units (ECUs)–also known electronic control modules, CPUs, or simply “computers”) for all of our vehicles, and secured them in an EMP shielded Faraday cage shielding metal can along with the necessary tools to swap out the units, and printed instructions for doing the job for each specific vehicle. Each vehicle also has a Chilton’s Manual on board.

The easiest way to ascertain the part you need is to call the local dealer parts department, give them your year, make and model, and the VIN, and they will be able to look up your part and give you all the specifics. If you feel the price from the dealer is too high, then get on Ebay and find and order your part from a wrecking yard. Some newer vehicles have more than one computer, but the one you need is the one that controls the engine/fuel/ transmission. I have not ordered the computers that control the cabin heat and gauges as, quite frankly, in a G.O.O.D. situation I really don’t need to know my mpg, mph, etc. I just need the vehicle to start, run, and get me to where I need to go.

The units are stored under the seats of each vehicle in a Faraday cage. The Faraday cage container is made by first wrapping the unit in some kind of non-conducting material: rubber, plastic bubble wrap, anything that is non-conductive. Next, wrap the whole thing in duct tape. Then wrap the whole with two or three layers of aluminum foil, and then another layer of duct tape. It is important that each successive layer completely covers the each prior layer. Then insert the whole into a steel ammo box, along with the instructions and change out tools. If the time comes you need to open and use it, don’t forget to first ground the ammo box and yourself.

A possible alternative solution that I have not elected, at least not yet, is to own and maintain as your principle G.O.O.D. vehicle one which was manufactured before 1986, as those vehicles did not have computers or other electronics that are susceptible to the effects of EMP.

Fuel Crisis Preparation:

For most of us it is impractical (not to mention unsafe) to store large quantities of fuel. We are 300 miles from our retreat location, which is located in another state, and under normal conditions it takes us about six hours to get there. However, keeping in mind the value of the golden hours, I am fully prepared to take advantage of those hours. I did this by acquiring two 55 gallon steel fuel drums from a local distributor, and a 12 volt fuel transfer pump with hose and nozzle from Ebay. I don’t keep the drums full, but rather readily accessible for loading in the truck and a quick trip down to the local all hours gas station.

Those who recognize the crisis for what it is should have enough lead time to make last minute purchases of critical supplies, such as fuel, medicines and food. One problem for most people is they have not positioned themselves to take advantage of those golden hours for immediately acquiring a last minute emergency fuel supply. The additional hours they might have to waste acquiring portable storage containers could easily lose those critical golden hours.

When I see on the 11:00 PM (or whenever) news what I deem sufficient information to make the final call that the crisis is really starting, I will load my drums into the truck and drive to my local CardLock station and fill up. (I just joined a local CardLock station for this very purpose.) If I didn’t already have my drums, I would either have to wait until the next morning to go out and try and acquire some drums or fuel cans, or if it happens during the daytime, go out and try and acquire some before I head to the fuel station. This means that by the time I can get to the gas station it could already be pumped dry, rationed, confiscated or requisitioned by the government for the “common good”.

By having the necessary containers already on hand, we will be able to beat the rush, and be literally hours ahead of the masses which will by then be approaching a full scale panic mode.

The point is, I have put my family in a position to be able to act quickly and decisively to take advantage of those golden hours at the very beginning of a crisis, thereby increasing my family’s chances of survival. By anticipating a need, I have made a plan and acted upon it. When TSHTF I now have in place not only a plan to make use of those golden hours, but those items needed to fulfill that plan.

Costs? The fuel drums were free from my local fuel oil and lubricants dealer. Mine originally held methanol alcohol. I purchased a nifty little 12 volt fuel pump, complete with hose and nozzle that I can screw into the barrel bung, attach to my truck’s battery and will deliver up to 20 gallons a minute. “Little” is a relative term. The whole pump and hose system weighs in at 39 pounds, but it is smaller than a regular service station fuel pump, and a lot more portable and, since it is being carried in the truck, the extra weight doesn’t bother me.

The cost of the pump was less than $150 on eBay. Don’t have $150 to spare on an emergency fuel pump? Try a simple siphon hose costing a couple of bucks. Every vehicle we own has a 20′ section of 3/8″ I.D. clear plastic tubing. Why clear plastic tubing? Because I have never acquired a taste for petroleum products. Keep in mind the tubing needs to be small enough in diameter to get past the “unleaded fuel” barrier in the mouth of the filler tube which is now a standard in all modern vehicles.

In addition to the two barrels I also have five 5 gallon red plastic gas cans. Best price I found for these is at Wal-Mart which, while anathema to left wing ideologues, is most often the prepper’s best friend. Between the 25 gallon tank in my GMC; the 110 gallons in the drums, and the 25 gallons in the gas cans, I have now provided my family with yet another benefit: options. A military maxim states “No plan survives first contact with the enemy.” This is why the more options you can provide yourself, the better off you will be in a crisis.

Medical Crisis Preparation:

What holds true for fuel, also holds true for last minute medical and prescription acquisitions. Have a friendly doctor write you some undated prescriptions for antibiotics and for several months worth of your regular prescriptions can be a lifesaver. If you don’t have a relationship with a physician that would allow you to acquire these, check out the SurvivalBlog archives for an article on veterinary pharmaceutical equivalents.

Remember the golden hours rule. Be prepared to pay cash or write a check for the necessary drugs, as you probably won’t have the luxury of time to negotiate with your insurance company. Wal-Mart and other competing chains offer $10 prescriptions for a 90 day supply. Try and acquire prescriptions for at least 180 days on hand. Tell the pharmacist you are going on a trip out of the country if they question you.

I was discussing survival preparation with my best friend many years ago when he was in medical school, and he commented that very few people understand that civilization is only about one micron thick. The very same germs that killed our great grandparents are still alive and thriving in the dirt just outside our window. The only reason they don’t kill us now is we have magic bullets in the form of antibiotics, vaccines and pain controllers that keep them in check. Take away these and we will die even quicker than our antecedents because as a civilization we have lost so many of our natural immunities.

Our nation functions on a continuous re-supply system for medicines and food. All of this is kept in motion by an increasingly high tech system of computers and coding. It all works because of a myriad of interconnecting symbiotic systems. For example, most pharmacies (including those in hospitals) only keep about a three day supply of drugs on hand for their normal patient load. If anything in the supply chain breaks at any juncture the whole chain grinds to an immediate halt. Overload a hospital with injured disaster victims and the medical supplies will be gone in less than 24 hours. Without resupply, and a steady supply of power from the grid, modern medicine reverts back to the 1800s in just a few days.

The weakest link in our entire social construct is our total dependency on computer driven data, and the computer’s total dependency on an uninterrupted flow of electricity. Shut down the grid for a day, and things get very bad. Shut down the grid for a month, and the result will be catastrophic. Shut down the grid for a year, and the estimates are that, absent outside assistance, 50% to 70% of our population will die from starvation and disease in that first year!

There was an article on the net last week about there being approximately 26 million insulin dependant diabetics in the US. If the supply system stops, absent a backup supply, the majority of these people will die within 90 days. How can they prepare for this situation? A little forethought and preparation can give a diabetic a chance of at least surviving long enough for the restructuring of the supply chain.

The whole plan keys on two points: 1.) Having sufficient insulin stored away to keep a diabetic alive for an extended period of time; and 2.) having a way to keep the insulin refrigerated and usable for an extended period of time.

For example: Humilin N, a common OTC insulin, has a three year shelf life if kept properly refrigerated. Humilin N comes in 100 Unit vials. One vial lasts a diabetic X number of days, depending on dosage. A diabetic can easily calculate how many vials they will need for whatever period of time they wish to prepare, up to 3 years, under refrigeration.

So, what is the most effective way to maintain refrigeration in the event of a grid collapse? Propane refrigerators.

Because we have two family members who are insulin dependent, we have prepared as follows:

Our RV, which is stored on site at our retreat, has a propane/electric refrigerator already installed. Additionally, and in my own penchant for redundancy in all things survival oriented, I acquired a full-size propane refrigerator for our retreat, through Craigslist

For those unfamiliar with propane refrigerators, let me say they are probably the most energy efficient appliance ever built. Energy companies don’t want people to know just how cheap it is to run a propane refrigerator. The amount of propane necessary to keep a full size refrigerator cold is about the same as a pilot light. We have a 500 gallon tank at the retreat and are adding another one this summer. With that much propane we can run the fridge for many years.

Note: If you are thinking about using your RV fridge as your backup insulin storage, remember to acquire the necessary fittings and hoses to fill your RV tank and also to attach it to larger external tank(s).

Another Note: Why is propane the preferred fuel for making long term preparations? Because, unlike gas and diesel, it doesn’t get old and it requires no treatment to stay usable. As long as the tank holds pressure, the propane is good. Additionally, when used to power a generator, there is no residue to foul and damage the filter and diaphragm which stay clean, extending the life of the power plant.

The existing current national disaster plan calls for the requisition, by force if necessary, of all existing food and drug stocks from outlying, lightly populated, rural areas, for transport to and use in more densely populated (read “voting bloc”) urban areas. This policy will, however, take a few days to implement. Once again, an alert and informed person will have golden hours they can use to their advantage. Make a list of your local all night pharmacies, markets and fuel stations. Then, make lists of what you need at each location, print them out and keep them handy. Use the golden hours to fill out your list.

Food Supply Crisis Preparation:

In times of disaster or emergency the demand for everything in our culture will spike, exhausting local existing supplies in less than a day. Our markets resupply daily. If the resupply stops, even for a few days, the effect of the resulting shortages will magnify. The time to go to the store is before the crisis hits or immediately upon recognizing it for what it is. Don’t delay! These are the golden hours. Go and shop immediately! Once the reality sinks in to the general public, stores will be cleaned out in a matter of hours.

I have prepared a shopping list I distribute to friends and family for either just before or just after a national emergency occurs or is announced. Once the truth sinks in to the general population, there will be a run on the stores. Re-supply to the stores will be either unlikely or irregular. If you have failed to prepare adequately before now, this may be your one and only chance to provision your family for an extended period of time.

I won’t bore you with my own list, but I will say that we have given it quite a bit of thought as to quantities and types of food we will acquire, and they are all easy to prepare, non-perishable foods needing no refrigeration. I have even gone one step further to prepare my family to take advantage of the golden hours. My wife and I regularly mentally map what foods are where in our local markets to assist us in making the best use of time in the stores.

When TSHTF, while I am down at the Card-Lock filling the fuel drums in the truck, my wife will be at the closest market filling the shopping carts. After the fueling is completed, I will meet her there to help finish up the shopping and loading the purchases in the SUV and to provide additional security. Hopefully it will not be needed as all of the foregoing last minute preparations should be taking place well before the masses even realize the severity of the crisis, in those “golden hours” which are the focus of this article.

In Summary:

Last minute preparations are not a panacea for a previous lackadaisical approach to preparation. But people should realize that even this late in the game there are still options to see them through a major, extended crisis. The sooner you start serious preparations the better chance you have of surviving what is most certainly headed out way.

The real key to your family’s personal survival is recognizing the true nature of the crisis before too many others do. Even a few hours lead time on the majority of the population can mean the difference, literally, between life and death. Those few hours are, truly, the golden hours.



The Backup Plan to a Backup Plan for Telecommuters, by Tamara W.

Assumption: “If it snows or storms, I can work from home and telecommute.”  Assumptions are not always correct. The major ice storms at the end of January and start of February 2011 prompted creating this plan for my husband and myself. (Or first backup plan was alternate transportation routes.)

Lessons learned day by day:

Day 1

When power goes out at the house, such as during the first day of the storm for about 6 hours, the only way you can work from home is by using precious generator  fuel or laptop batteries. Due to my husband’s higher pay rate, he dialed in with the laptop computer while I managed the kids and lessons.

Lessons learned:
* if we want to be able to both telecommute, we either need to have two working laptops to connect with or be willing to give up generator fuel to use one desktop computer. Cost of fuel needs to balanced against the cost of extra lap top batteries and an additional laptop and the effort to keep their batteries charged.

Day 2

When the power goes out at your place of work, as happened on day 2 of the storm, you cannot remotely connect to the work site to telecommute. Husband’s backup plan was a stack of printed calculations to review and then manually type up comments and e-mail back. Time to type and e-mail is a fraction of the time spent reviewing paper. I worked on technical documents but could not submit them for review. My work was done in the hope of billable results (paid upon acceptance) later due to the customer’s site being down (whole site dead, data centers on backup power, no one had e-mail or network connections).
For another site, data that I worked on through the web site was lost when the site went down for a while during a rolling power outage. There went half an hour of work.
Potential backup laptop we have borrowed from a friend is virus infected. Running virus-scans found at least three infections. Fortunately, we double-checked everything before I touched it with consideration of actually working on it. (Imagine the perceived reputation of working remotely if all work sent in is infected!)

 

Lessons learned:

  • Have a backup plan of means to generate billable time or payable work if everyone else’s network connections or computers are dead. The ability to do work from home is of limited value if you cannot send it for management review or customer acceptance. If their standard process is review through a tool like PleaseReview or Documentum, propose a backup plan of e-mailing documents so that days are not lost. If e-mail through work accounts are not available and e-mailing work files from personal e-mail accounts are not acceptable, have a backup location agreed upon in advance of where files can be securely uploaded and shared.
  • Have backups of all customer billable files saved somewhere other than methods through which you submit them. Save early and save often. If their system goes down and all data is lost, your only hope of recouping that time is having a backup to resend them. Copy and paste results into web sites or attach these files to e-mails or upload to their web site. Avoid working only in their web site or forms; if your computer or theirs goes down, all the work is lost.
  • Virus-scan everything thoroughly prior to use. Scan computers you receive at least three times to ensure that it is safe before using. Scan files you receive at least twice with two separate virus-scanners to prevent infection of your own machine.

Day 3

Husband has finished much of his take home work. I am looking for billable work through e-mail to customers. Crowd-sourcing web sites provide a fallback for burning some time and generating some (though less than usual) income.
My main customers’ systems are still shut down from massive electrical failure at site. This could create a problem because some of the work I do is customer surveys and satisfaction analysis. If I had had more information for software manual updates, there would have been more billable time for them even when working from home.
Secondary customer is up and running and accepting articles. I sent several articles written in the interim to a third customer.
Kids have finished all homework and are making progress through workbooks I had saved. This keeps them busy but not entirely occupied.  Interruptions cost quality of work.

Lessons:

  • Have more than one customer! The ability to be paid from more than one source meant that income flow wasn’t entirely constrained by one customer’s literally shut down.
  • Where possible, have a backlog of tasks or projects for which you can be paid if working from home. Conversely, have tasks that are not time constrained. Having a paid task that must be done on a certain date is worthless if you cannot complete it on time.
  • If you have children, then have a plan of how to keep them and you working at the same time. Then practice it on the weekends in imitation of how it may play out in real life. We’d practiced “power down weekends”, but that was closer to family camping inside the house. Mommy and Daddy trying to work on computers with them trying to do school work is a whole other scenario that needs to be practiced as well.

Day 4

Mailman makes it in and out. We’re well stocked, so getting to the store is a necessity. However, getting to the bank to deposit a check received in the mail is a major hassle. We found a solution: direct deposit through our credit union. Scan the check (our printer doubles as a scanner and fax machine), upload to web site, and deposit. Funds available next day for electronic funds transfer (EFT) bill paying.
I received other payments through PayPal and Amazon gift certificates. Paypal funds can be transferred to the bank account electronically. They could also be used for online purchases if we chose. Amazon gift certificates are great to order groceries or necessities from their web site; sort by items eligible for free super saver shipping and order sufficient volume to hit the $25-30 minimum for free shipping. The items arrive in a few days because the mail man still comes every day. And it is safer than trying to get to the store as well as convenient.
A few low priority documents and articles are submitted via the mail. A good supply of stamps and envelopes made this a practical backup plan when power is interrupted.

Lessons: 

  • Have alternate means of payment available. Be able to bypass the bank.
  • Have ways to immediately convert these alternate payments into things you need and use.
  • Plan your business like your life for emergency situations; don’t have to go anywhere to get it all done.

Day 5

Power interruptions are short 5-15 minutes during Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) planned rolling blackouts to save electricity. This is in some ways worse than power out for 2-5 hours because it is easy to resume work after power comes back on, only to lose it again shortly thereafter.
The Uninteruptible Power Supply (UPS) is connected to wireless router and DSL router. We’re still connected to the internet while the UPS is running, and unlike a computer, routers don’t draw as much power. If that didn’t work, we could connect via the phone line.
Husband had to go into work to catch up on tasks that could not be handled remotely. Fortunately, he had safe routes in and out regardless of weather. Taking his laptop with wi-fi connection allowed him to work even while the train was delayed.

Lessons learned:

  • Laptops have built in battery backups. If the power goes out while someone is working on a laptop plugged in, the battery backup kicks in. The ability to continue working and at least finish the work and notify everyone that you will be offline shortly minimizes the disruption. 
  • Have an uninterruptible power supply (UPS) connected to your desktop computers. This provides a short period to save work, preventing its loss. [JWR Adds: For the greatest practicality, a UPS should be too heavy to comfortably lift and carry more than a few yards. A heavy UPS means that that it has lots of batteries, which equates to a longer useful run time.]
  • UPS connected to home routers keeps home network up and running even when the local wi-fi shuts down from local power outage. Consider adding a UPS to your router if it is heavily used or connecting it to your computer’s UPS.
  • We retained our old modems in case faster network connections like wi-fi failed. Have a backup connection method.

Other observations:

  1. If you plan to telecommute, have multiple means to make connections with your customers. However, this must be balanced with data security and their corporate policies if any.
  2. Have these backup plans in place and agreed upon before they are needed. Trying to discuss these alternate data sharing methods on cell phones with limited batteries is not a good backup plan.
  3. As with any other power using appliance, have backup power sources that can fuel it.
  4. Have multiple methods to connect to the Internet.
  5. As demand on infrastructure goes up from a growing population but quality declines from lack of maintenance, expect interruptions of basic services like utilities. Then plan on how to function with both shut downs and interruptions.


Letter Re: Earthquake Hazard, Risk, and Mitigation

James:
Thank you for your interesting and informative web site and mission.  Just a few short thoughts on earthquake hazard, risk, and mitigation, since it’s a pet interest of mine for some time and I come at it from a slightly different background than some.  I’m a southeastern US resident in an area about 300 miles give or take from the New Madrid fault zone.  My community is actually located in the second most seismically active area east of the Rockies, so I do have some personal investment in the topic.  Additionally, I have more than 20 years’ experience in disaster services, so i’ve got both some practical experience and I’ve had some time to study and think about stuff.

Hazard is the potential for physical activity that can cause damage to structures and inhabitants.  Risk is the human behavior(s) that leads to greater or lesser damages given the particular hazard(s) discussed.  Mitigation is the action(s) taken to reduce risk and damage. 

The greatest danger for many families living in earthquake country is right in their own homes.  Gas-fueled water heaters are fairly unstable when lifted and pushed sideways, and since you already have a natural gas line, usually copper in the Central US, and a flame (pilot light), an unsecured gas water heater is like having your own family catastrophe waiting with your bath water.  Copper line breaks, uncontrolled gas bleeds out of the lines, and it ignites.  This was a problem in California and other western states in the past — in areas that mostly require seismic shutoff valves today on natural gas lines entering occupied properties.  During, IIRC, the Loma Prieta earthquake, they discovered a few useful facts like this, including the follow-on treat that events that break gas lines also often break water lines, so you get a fire that you have little to no means to extinguish.  Turned out it was hard to open rolling sheet metal fire station doors too. 

Fortunately for those who don’t live in places where building codes have caught up to physical realities as much as to political ones, it is simple and cheap to fix this potential catastrophe. Hardware stores sell, very inexpensively, “plumbing tape” or “hardware tape” that is basically thin, 1 inch or so wide strips of rolled sheet metal with holes every inch or so.  One simply takes this material, wraps it around their water heater at about 2/3 height of the heater, then nail it off securely to wall studs.   Shazam.  It won’t fix all your problems, and there are lots of other topics we could discuss, but this is the first one I mention when I meet folks who live in or very near earthquake hazard zones.

This happens to be the bicentennial of the famous New Madrid series of quakes that caused 2 waterfalls on the Mississippi, church bells to ring in Boston, windows to rattle in D.C., and formed the largest land area lake in Tennessee by the Mississippi River basically flowing backwards for a while.  The eyewitness accounts are quite riveting.  The fact is that Eastern/Central US quakes cause shaking in a roughly 10 times larger area than in California simply due to the stiffer, older underlying rock.  Damages will likely be even greater geographically distributed because we have practically nothing in the built environment to protect people, and our people have no clue what to do to prepare or respond. 

With Best Regards, In Christ, – River S.



Letter Re: The Hard Truth About Starting Your Survival Homestead

James:
That was great post [by Mitch M.], many thanks to all who share their experiences on your blog. Nothing beats mentoring, even by internet!  However, I would like to share that RoundUp is a dangerous product and should not be used anywhere you plan to grow plants for food.  The following is an excerpt from an article at The Institute For Responsible Technology web site:

“Monsanto used to boast that Roundup is biodegradable, claiming that it breaks down quickly in the soil. But courts in the US and Europe disagreed and found them guilty of false advertising. In fact, Monsanto’s own test data revealed that only 2% of the product broke down after 28 days. Whether glyphosate degrades in weeks, months, or years varies widely due to factors in the soil, including pH, clay, types of minerals, residues from Roundup Ready crops, and the presence of the specialized enzymes needed to break down the herbicide molecule. In some conditions, glyphosate can grab hold of soil nutrients and remain stable for long periods. One study showed that it took up to 22 years for glyphosate to degrade only half its volume! So much for trusting Monsanto’s product claims.

Glyphosate can attack from above and below. It can drift over from a neighbors farm and wreak havoc. And it can even be released from dying weeds, travel through the soil, and then be taken up by healthy crops. The amount of glyphosate that can cause damage is tiny. European scientists demonstrated that less than half an ounce per acre inhibits the ability of plants to take up and transport essential micronutrients (see chart). As a result, more and more farmers are finding that crops planted in years after Roundup is applied suffer from weakened defenses and increased soilborne diseases. The situation is getting worse for many reasons.”

Thank you Mr. Rawles for all you do to create awareness. Yours in Him, – Julie D.



Avalanche Lily’s Bedside Book Pile

I heard that Mark Harrison (the husband of Erin Harrison, who produced the excellent Homesteading for Beginners DVD series) was just involved in a freak accident that nearly cost him his life. While attaching some siding on a building under construction at their farm, a co-worker slipped and accidentally put an industrial staple into the back of Mark’s head, stapling his hat to his head. The prongs of the staple penetrated one inch into his skull. One brain surgery later, it looks like Mark has a good chance of making a complete recovery. Please keep Mark and his family in your prayers! And if you’ve thought about buying any of their books, DVDs, or gear from their on-line store, then now would be a great time to do so. (They are surely going to have some huge medical bills!)

Here are the current top-most items on my perpetual bedside pile:

  • I’m in the middle of reading Joel Rosenberg’s nonfiction book Epicenter 2.0: Why the Current Rumblings in the Middle East Will Change Your Future. It is noteworthy that social networking services like Facebook and Twitter have proven to be potent tools for planning uprisings in the Middle East. Jim says that they ought to have a local version, called Fezbook.
  • I just read two books edited by Abigail R. Gehring. They are titled: Homesteading and Self-Sufficiency. They have some beautifully detailed photos and the books cover a lot of subject areas, but they lack the greater depth of detail that is included in Carla Emery’s Encyclopedia of Country Living.
  • I recently watched the movie Fiddler on the Roof. I think it will earn itself a place in the “classic films” category. Great singing and acting! I love the film. “Tradition!!!” It has some very emotional moments. Topol is a wonderful actor. Oh, and I must say that The Almighty Matchmaker made Jim and I a perfect match. 🙂


Economics and Investing:

John R. flagged this: Egypt’s Super-Rich Begin Moving Their Money to Switzerland

Also from John comes a bank run news article: Egyptian Banks Open, And The Government Is Forced To Use Cargo Planes Full Of Cash

Mal sent us this: Why You Need to Own Nickels, Right Now

Reader M.B. highlighted this one: South Korea must prepare for food crisis

Bob Chapman: Almost a Total Dollar Devaluation By The Fed

In his video blog, Peter Schiff warns of rapidly-rising bond yield rates.

Andy A. suggested this: Silver in complete backwardation



Odds ‘n Sods:

Hillary Clinton calls historic meeting of ambassadors. Wow, 260 ambassadors and counsels in simultaneous transit! Something is afoot, folks. The bottom line is that the world’s governments can print unlimited supplies of currency, but they can’t print food. I anticipate that a regional war or perhaps even global war is just around the corner.

   o o o

Why America Should Be Driving on Natural Gas

   o o o

Ms. M. sent this article about “Generation Rx”: Pharmacies Besieged by Addicted Thieves

   o o o

I just heard about an interesting new product, made here in the U.S.: The Flashlantern.





Note from JWR:

Today we present another two entries for Round 33 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A 250 round case of 12 Gauge Hornady TAP FPD 2-3/4″ OO buckshot ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo (a $240 value), and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, C.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and D.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.) , and B.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value.

Round 33 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



The Hard Truth About Starting Your Survival Homestead, by Mitch M.

I have noticed a frightening trend being used by many of the “survival seed” companies that have started up in the past several years. The same trend shows up on many “survival/ prepping” web sites. This is pushing the idea that in TEOTWAWKI one merely needs to open the bucket and have an instant survival homestead. That isn’t necessarily so. Does buying the latest fancy rifle with rangefinder, laser pointer, and fancy toilet paper holder make you a marksman?

There is a range of preparations and skills necessary for running a successful farm or homestead. That is why our forefathers often screwed up and starved to death. If all the pieces are not there then the potential exists for failure. Today this is heartbreaking. In TEOTWAWKI this can be fatal.

Let me preface my remarks by saying that I have killed more plants, lost more animals, and had more failures than I would have ever envisioned when I first started my hobby farming. I am a police officer by trade not a farmer. It shows. Right now I have a nine-day-old baby pot-bellied pig in a box next to me. He was born on an 18-degree day and his mother didn’t care for her first litter. When I found the six piglets in the nesting hut, they were already hypothermic. I lost the first in less than an hour while still trying to get Momma Pig to care for them. Once the decision was made to bring them in and bottle feed them I hoped they would be okay. I was wrong. My wife and I worked and fed day and night and gradually watched all but one of these precious little creatures die. This was with veterinarian’s and local expert’s tips. My one little boar seems to be doing well.

Losing the offspring was heartbreaking after caring for them. It is also expensive in lost revenue. Locally, the piglets run from $50 to $200. That means potentially $1,000 lost from my profits already this year. Today that is lamentable. Tomorrow it may be deadly. What if this litter was one from my Yorkshire sows that was going to supply meat for my kids? There is a learning curve involved here. Now is the time to be making mistakes not in TEOTWAWKI.

The Garden of Eden in a Bucket group would have you believe that these skills can be learned and preparations made after the fact. In truth this is too late. The time to make mistakes is now while you can still purchase food from a farmer’s market to replace your failures, not when your children are praying for their next meal. We must start today building our knowledge and skill base to handle the chores necessary to a successful homestead. We have to start the garden, plant the fruit and nut trees, and start husbanding the animal today in order to have the ability to do so when TEOTWAWKI comes. Perhaps it is because we are further removed from our food sources now that we must relearn the skills of the past. These are not innate abilities. They must be cultivated

A garden doesn’t just happen. It takes planning, work, skill, luck, and plenty of prayers. I have been growing a garden of one size or another from a few tomatoes, peppers, and cucumbers for fresh use to three to 4 acre canning gardens that took full time work to keep up. Lack of experience is a big problem in the amount and consistency of harvest. Even experienced gardeners have bad years. The difference is that they usually have some harvest. Inexperienced gardeners often lose the whole crop. Gardening is a skill best learned by doing it not just reading about it.

In the beginning one must choose the location for the garden. This should be done based on soil type, drainage or water availability, and sunlight. Different parts of the country have different soil types and needs. Some are more acid or alkali than others. Did you realize that the soil will vary on your property? The south side of my yard is hard packed red clay with no real topsoil. Grass will grow but is severely affected by drought. To the north of the house is where all of that topsoil was pushed as fill when the lot was leveled and the house built. That is where we chose to put the garden. This location also provides good sunlight with no trees to the east, south, or west. We are in the process of planting fruit trees to the north side of the garden since this will not affect the amount of sunlight. This location provides good drainage and access to water. Right now that means access to hoses but hopefully this year we will install guttering on our metal roof and build a rainwater recovery system to provide for our needs.

When your life depends on it is not the time to start breaking ground on a garden. How are you going to do it? Are you going to use a shovel? Good luck. I have and it has been slow going with about four wide rows added each year. The ground was initially run over with a tractor with a tiller attachment behind it. That was probably a mistake since it just chopped all of the grass roots and rhizomes up and sprigged the garden with them. The tiller only cut about 8 inches through the sod. It was more like aerating the soil than prepping it for planting. I had to then resort to the shovel and rake to get my rows made. I use wide rows about 42 inches wide for planting. This allows me to reach the middle from either side but minimizes the area taken up by walk space. I would love to frame them in but have not had the money to do so. My rows are 36 feet long, and I have been able to break and cultivate about four new rows each year. Remember this is practice for not having the modern conveniences. This garden has been a learning process and is a long term prep.

As I said, I have had a battle with grass and weeds due to starting off wrong. Apparently I had done too good a job on that lovely lawn. I would have been better off spraying the area with Roundup first. I prefer to use natural methods but I do have to admit its effectiveness. Hand weeding and hoeing are tough on the back. It is better to kill of as much as possible first before planting. One can use chemicals to accomplish this. You must decide how you feel about them. You can also use a heavy layer of mulch to kill off the grass. This is slower and can have its own problems. I don’t recommend using hay for this. Hay contains the seed heads of grass stems. It can bring in more problems than it fixes. Use leaves, straw, or grass clippings in a layer at least four to 6 inches deep and be prepared to wait a few weeks to kill it off. Better is to lay a layer of newspaper or cardboard down first then cover it with your mulch. The great thing about this is that it improves the soil as it kills weeds and grass. Leave it alone and plant right through it if you choose. This method was touted by the great Ruth Stout who wrote several books about her “no-dig, deep mulch” methods. Doesn’t sound like it can be accomplished overnight does it?

I have tried a new approach this winter. I have the garden fenced off with “hog panels” and have it divided into two paddocks. The pair of pot bellied pigs is in one section and the four Yorkshires are in the other. Both share the area with four geese, a tom turkey, and assorted ducks and chickens. The pigs are constantly turning the soil over and working organic matter into it. Hopefully between the birds, sunlight, and freezing most of the weed seeds will be eliminated. There is not a sprig of grass to be found. This should be a viable way to expand a garden post Schumer. I feed them vegetable left-overs from the local fruit stand. They reward me by stirring in fresh manure daily. Any leaves, saw dust, and other mulches are thrown in for them to stir into the soil. I will have to report on the effectiveness of this method in the fall.

Notice earlier I said natural and not organic. Organic has come to be a USDA term for nothing. Organic produce in a major-chain store is no better than standard produce. They have subverted the word. I am talking about natural production methods like God intended. Composting, mulching, and fertilization should be accomplished working with not against nature. God knew what he was doing when he designed the system. It is when we try to act contrary to his laws that things fall apart. Leave any natural thing including stone alone and let the weather and the microorganism have their way with it and it will break down and return to a state usable by plants as nutrients. Compost is the best thing available for improving soil tilth and fertility. No man-made product comes close. The only problem is it takes time. Start now.

I mentioned the doomsday seed vaults earlier, and I know that it sounds like I am against them. Actually I think you are a fool if you don’t have something like them. Seeds for Security and Everlasting Seeds have wonderful products that give a security and peace of mind to any prepper’s future. They have put together seeds designed to maximize your food potentials in your survival garden. I keep a running supply of seeds that I rotate on a yearly basis. This way I have fresh seeds available at any time. I use a lot of open pollinated seeds now for safety. I can always save seed if needed and do so for practice each year. I do grow hybrids also. I know, I know, sighs of disgust. Get over it. Hybrids produce more crops for less work in most instances. They have been bred to give the most bang for the buck whether it’s disease resistance, taste, or vigor. Remember that being a hybrid is not a bad thing; it just means that the plant won’t reproduce true to form with all the traits that made you choose it in the first place. You can still save seeds from them they just won’t reproduce true in the offspring. You can still grow plants from them and they will share many of the original traits. Hybrids are good to have on hand early in the gardening experience because they usually have a vigor that exceeds either parent. As your skills improve you can work with the heirloom varieties.

Working a garden now also lets you learn what varieties you like the taste of. There are literally hundreds of varieties of tomatoes. Tomatoes are supposed to be bright red, period. Actually on the advice of a friend who runs a feed store I tried a pink variety, Arkansas Traveler, a couple of years ago and found it to be an instant favorite. It’s not as pretty, but it sure is good. An added bonus is that it happens to be an heirloom variety that breeds true. When do you start seeds where you live? What is the date of first and last frost and freeze? What varieties grow well on your soil? Will your family eat them? What diseases are in your area? Do you really want to wait to find out after the Schumer hits the fan?

Why haven’t you planted your fruit and nut trees? Are you waiting until after TEOTWAWKI to do it? Too late. The best time to have planted them is already gone but you can start today. The soft-fruits are the way to go for quick production. Brambles and grapes give a quick return for the investment. They will fruit quickly, usually within the first year or two after planting. Plums, figs, peaches, and blueberries usually take from two to four years to become productive. Hard fruit trees like pears and apples take even longer. Start with the oldest and largest trees you can afford. Dwarf trees mature faster than standard stock. Nuts are a long term investment. They may take twenty years to produce. When you plant remember to plan for the grown size of the plant. Also think about where the shade will fall so you don’t ruin your garden. Buy from a local nursery not the big-box stores. The local nursery will cost more but they will have varieties suited to your climate.

Do you have your pens built for your livestock? What about the materials to build them with, wire, wood, posts, sheet metal? Not yet huh? Okay do you have your medicines, wormers, milk replacers, and colostrum for emergencies like mine with the piglets? Not yet? See where I am going? I raise a variety of animals and have for several years and still got caught off guard with this last litter (didn’t know she was bred and she is pot-bellied after all). I had no colostrum on hand and had to wait until the piglets were almost a day old to get some in them. Do you think it will be easier to find these things after old Schumer shows up?

You need to plan now for what animals you want to raise, where you want them located, and how to care for them. You need to know how a ruminant’s stomachs (4) work. You need to know which plants will kill your goats (rhododendron family such as azalea). What is the gestation period for a pig? A rabbit? How long do you incubate chicken eggs? Ducks? Geese? What do you plan to feed these animals when you get them? There is a lot of effort required in keeping small stock. The time to practice is now. The time for mistakes is now.

This is the time to be learning and developing the skills necessary for a Pennsylvania homestead. No one on this forum would advocate buying a firearm now but waiting until the Schumer hits the fan to buy ammo and learn to shoot. Sweat in practice saves blood in battle. Start sweating.



The Ethics and Methodology of Sniping after TEOTWAWKI, by P.A.

Introduction
Having served as a scout-sniper section leader in the United States Marine Corps’ Fifth Marine Regiment for two years from 2002-2004, I would like to share my thoughts regarding the application and role of sniping and long-range precision marksmanship (herein defined as shooting beyond 700 yards) in a TEOTWAWKI scenario.  Since the end of my enlistment I have had the opportunity to discuss emergency preparedness scenarios with the well-prepared, the well-grounded, and those that were neither.  Given my background the subject of sniping frequently comes up, and the sum of those conversations have led me to believe that there is a significant understanding gap between the popular idea and the reality of sniping and the ethical considerations that should, but usually do not, go along with that understanding.  After a discussion of the ethics of sniping, I’ll look at scenarios, provide an overview of marksmanship methodology, briefly examine sniping equipment and close with a few resources for further research.

No matter what you read on the internet, war and TEOTWAWKI are not the same thing.  War is inherently offensive, while surviving TEOTWAWKI should be inherently defensive.  Preparation is your best defense against becoming the dangerous parasite that poses the greatest threat to recovery after TEOTWAWKI.  If you have been caught materially unprepared, you should at least have worked to develop some knowledge or skills that will allow you to be a contributing member of a more prepared community, thus helping to ensure your survival without posing an undue burden on what functioning society is left.  As this pertains to sniping, we must consider the appropriate uses and consequences of strategically defensive sniping.

Sniping, at its core, is ideally the art of killing an enemy from a concealed position at a distance where they cannot effectively threaten you.  You are blind siding someone; it is the antithesis of a fair fight.  While conflict is about survival, all of us understand that the ends do not always justify the means.  For example, we can all agree that non-combatants should never be targeted or exploited, even if there is a potential gain to be had.  In a typical firefight the enemy poses an immediate threat to your life and the moral justification of killing that enemy is one that falls even within the established norms of a civilian society.  However, taking on the posture and therefore the mantle of a sniper removes both the immediate threat to your life and the clearer justifications that can be found in other forms of self-defense.

Each individual in our sniper platoon had to wrestle with this issue and come to their own decisions.  Our best snipers, and those who dealt most effectively with the psychological aftermath of war, were those who gave this and other considerations due and thorough  thought before they came into the platoon, during their training, and over the course of our deployed combat operations.  They approached their job professionally and rationally.  They were patient, grounded, smart, professional and lastly competitive.  These are the qualities of a sniper.  I am 5’8”, 150 pounds, when I was a sniper I wore glasses, and have always been a bit of a bookworm.  Being a sniper is not an image, and certainly not the image you see on television, it is a combination of skill and talent directed by determination and focus.  I am a Christian, and have always sought to understand my actions’ consequences to my relationship with God.  Ultimately He is the one we must answer to, and I do not believe that He would be pleased with my casually taking a human life.

With the immediacy of a firefight unavailable, a sniper in TEOTWAWKI must wrestle with the problem of threat identification.  At ,1000 yards through an eight power scope the gross details of a man are barely discernable – especially if there’s mirage.  Given that every other person carrying a firearm is not necessarily an enemy during TEOTWAWKI, it follows that it will be nearly impossible to determine whether or not an unknown person at long range is a threat.  Even assuming you observe them with a high-power spotting scope, the actions of a person at those ranges, particularly if they are unaware of your presence, are unlikely to reveal their morality or motivations.  If you can’t determine whether or not they’re a threat, and you haven’t been able to communicate that further approach will be regarded as hostile, you shouldn’t be killing them.  So, unless the person approaching is part of an armed war band that’s been burning and pillaging their way towards you (a la the situation depicted in the novel One Second After), you will never know if you’re killing a threat or a potential ally when you send that bullet humming downrange.

As I see it, sniping could justifiably be employed in a few circumstances after TEOTWAWKI.  The following four scenarios are not all-inclusive.  Careful consideration of your situation and the likely threats that you will face will help you to refine these ideas or add others.

  1. If you have a primary avenue of approach to your residence you could post notices along that approach.  Those notices should delineate measures that individuals can take if they want to approach without drawing fire.  Laying aside arms, getting out of vehicles, approaching in small groups during the day, etc. are reasonable precautions to demand from unknown persons.  This kind of “checkpoint oversight” is a reasonable circumstance for the employment of a high-caliber weapon capable of disabling a vehicle.  A sniper in a distant and concealed position could observe and cover by fire such a “checkpoint” without unduly compromising their safety.

2. If an individual or group makes a deliberately covert approach, then their motives are questionable.  They may pose a threat, or they may be trying to determine if you pose a threat.  Such a group, once spotted, may be engaged with a warning shot.  Their reaction will dictate whether or not further engagement is necessary

3. If someone in your group has been kidnapped or if a group with demonstrated hostile intentions has been located (i.e., the war band mentioned above), then offensive actions may be appropriate and a sniper can be used to eliminate leaders, sentries, lights, or other high-value targets before an assault or rescue.

4. Planned meetings with groups whose motivations are questionable could be covered by a sniper.  In such circumstances the sniper’s hide should be selected and occupied well in advance of the meeting.

 

Terrain Limitations
Sniping (the field application of long-range marksmanship) is only effective in terrain which provides long-range fields of view.  Grab a map, Google Earth, or get up and go look around; are there 700+ yard fields of fire around where you are/plan to be?  In many parts of the US, there are not, and the capabilities of a sniper rifle and the time spent learning how to use those capabilities are going to be wasted for want of a clear, long-range shot.  Mountains, deserts, and relatively treeless areas are most likely to provide this kind of terrain.  On a related note, do you have a 700+ yard range to train regularly?  Precision marksmanship is a perishable skill, and while taking a basic course will improve your marksmanship, you will not rise to the consistent level of skill required unless you have the room to train regularly.  So, before investing in the equipment and training necessary to become a sniper, ask yourself if you’ll ever have the space to put that gear and training to use.

While not many areas present the space appropriate for long-range marksmanship, I would argue that there is a much more probable place for equipment and training in the “designated marksman” (to use a military phrase) range of about 400-700 yards.  These ranges require a good firearm/scope/ammunition system, and descent training, but nothing as specialized as the 700+ yard “sniper ranges.”  400-700 yards is beyond the effective range of run-of-the-mill shooters equipped with small arms, and thus provides you with a meaningful ballistic advantage.  As a moral advantage, your ability to distinguish friend from foe is significantly better at these shorter ranges.  A semi-automatic .308, such as an AR-10 or M1A would be my weapon of choice for this duty. (I’ll have more about equipment later.)

Terms to Know

Ballistic advantage: the positive difference in maximum effective range between your gun and your enemy’s
Caliber: the diameter of a bullet (in the limited sense of the projectile as opposed to the entire cartridge, though the term bullet is often used to refer to a cartridge) as a portion of an inch; a .50 caliber bullet is ½ inch in diameter
Cartridge: the assembled primer, case, powder, and bullet; often called “round”, and often mistakenly called a “bullet”
Foot-Pound: a unit of measure for force, used to describe the energy a bullet possess at a given range
Grain: a unit of measure for small weights; used to weigh bullets and powder
Hand Loading: making ammunition yourself from its constituent parts
Match Grade: ammunition made to very tight tolerances suitable for precision shooting
Maximum Effective Range: the furthest range that a weapon system can capably engage a target, not the absolute distance a bullet can travel
Mil: the distance between the center of one mil-dot and the next
Mil-Dots: the circles or ovals superimposed over the crosshairs in a mil-dot scope; used to determine range to a target
Minute of Angle: MOA is the angular unit of measure equal to 1” per 100 yards, so 1 MOA at 500 yards is 5”; used as a measure of accuracy or shot adjustment in precision shooting; a precision rifle should hold at least a 1 MOA group with match-grade ammunition
Mirage: The effect generated by heated air rising off the earth; easily seen over a road on a hot day
Sniper ammunition: used to refer specifically to match-grade military ammunition issued to snipers
TEOTWAWKI: The End Of The World As We Know It

Marksmanship
Long-range shooting requires brilliance in the basics of marksmanship. A sniper rifle and match grade ammo do not a sniper make!  Professional instruction by a qualified teacher is imperative to mastering long-range shooting.  Front Site is one of several shooting schools across the country that offer precision shooting courses to civilians.  Beyond the basics, precision shooting requires an understanding of ballistics, wind, and the application of shooting formulae.  Wind and range estimation and adjustment are the most critical skills that a long range marksman can possess. And while these skills cannot be learned without hands-on training and practice a few things are important to know before you begin the trigger-pulling aspect of your training

Range estimation can be achieved through a wide variety of technical aids (mil-dots in a scope, a range finder, maps, etc.), but wind estimation is another matter.  While a wind gauge can tell you what the wind speed at your position is, it will not tell you what the wind is doing 800 yards downrange.  For those of you in hilly or mountainous country, the convoluted terrain can give you nightmares as you try to determine an adjustment for a shot involving multiple different winds.

Training in wind estimation is a relatively straightforward matter.  Keep a wind gauge and a copy of the Beaufort wind scale (see below) with you during your day-to-day outdoor activities.  When there’s a wind, use the Beaufort scale to estimate what the wind velocity is, then use the gauge to verify or correct your estimate.  Along with the environmental signs, learn how wind feels at certain speeds.  With training, you will be able to feel the difference between a 12 and a 14 mph wind on your cheek, useful if you live in a desert where there’s not much vegetation to indicate the wind’s speed.  As you are doing this watch your environment several hundred yards out.  Are the signs there the same as where you’re standing?  Is the wind blowing in the same direction at the same speed?  If not, what appears to be affecting it?  By observing, questioning, and practicing you will become adept at reading and understanding the wind.

BEAUFORT WIND SCALE

NAME

WIND SPEED

DESCRIPTION

MPH

KPH

calm

<1

<1

calm; smokes rises vertically

light air

1-3

1-5

direction of wind shown by smoke but not by wind vanes

light breeze

4-7

6-11

wind felt on face; leaves rustle; wind vane moves

gentle breeze

8-12

12-19

leaves and small twigs in constant motion; wind extends light flag

moderate breeze

13-18

20-28

wind raises dust and loose paper; small branches move

fresh breeze

19-24

29-38

small-leaved trees begin to sway; crested wavelets on inland waters

strong breeze

25-31

39-49

large branches move; overhead wires whistle; umbrellas difficult to control

Range estimation is most easily done with a laser range finder, but that does have limitations.  Range finders don’t work well in foggy or rainy weather conditions.  Range finders designed to work at 700+ yards are expensive; beware inexpensive range finders designed for golfers.  Range finders’ greatest limitation is the fact that they require batteries.  If you have a range finder, enjoy it and use it to verify your other range estimation methods.  The most applicable range-estimation technique for precision shooters is using mil-dots inside your rifle or spotting scope to determine range.   In this a mil-dot equipped scope the mil-dots are the feint dots that run along the thin crosshairs. 

To determine range with a mil-dot scope, an object of known size must be measured in mils, broken down by tenths.  A mil is the distance from the center of one mil-dot to the center of the next.  Thus, the brown cardboard in the picture to the left is approximately 5.8 mils tall and 5.6 mils wide.  That size is computed in a formula (see below) and the range in yards or meters can be determined.

It is worth noting that with an 8 power scope this method becomes increasingly difficult to use past 700 yards due to the apparent size of the target with respect to the mil-dots and human error.  A more powerful scope and/or lots of practice can help compensate.

These skills are not easily acquired, and must be learned in the field.  Becoming a proficient long-range marksman requires an outlay of time and money which will only tangentially carry over into improving your tactical shooting abilities.  In short, don’t train to be a sniper and assume that your room-clearing skills will improve right alongside.

Shooting Formulae
Precision shooting requires math; sorry folks!  Calculating range to target, windage compensation, adjustments for a moving target, and compensation for other more obscure variables is accomplished through shooting formulae.

To use these formulae you need some basic ballistic data for the ammunition that you are shooting, which should be available from the manufacturer.  Needless to say, doing these calculations is time-consuming, especially if zombies ate your last calculator.  So, it is most efficient to perform these calculations ahead of time and compile them in ballistic charts which you can use for quick reference.  Many such charts can be found online, saving you considerable time.  While deployed in combat operations I kept a windage-adjustment chart taped to my sleeve for easy reference.

When referencing raw ballistic data or pre-compiled charts, be sure to take into consideration the circumstances under which the data was compiled.  For example, a military ballistic chart for the standard-issue M118 sniper round was compiled using a 24” barrel Remington 700 military sniper rifle (the M24 or M40).  If you happen to be shooting an M118 round out of a rifle with a 20” barrel your bullet’s muzzle velocity will be slower and subsequent performance with not match exactly with the published ballistic data.  This information may be available directly from the manufacturer if you cannot find it online.

Range-determination Formula
Ryds = (Hyds*1000)/Hmil
Ryds = (Hin*27.77)/Hmil
Rm = (Hin*25.4)/Hmil

Wind-adjustment Formula
WMOA = ((RYDS/100)*VMPH)/RC
Wmil = (((RYDS/100)*VMPH)/RC)/3.438

Moving Target Compensation
Ldft = ToFsec*SpoTfps
Ldmil = ((Ldft*12)-6)/((Ryds/100)*3.438)

Variable Key
R = range
W = windage
Ld = lead
H = height of target
in = (in) inches
yds = (in) yards
m = (in) meters
RC = range constant
V = velocity
ToF = time of flight
SpoT = speed of target

Equipment
While much ink has been spilled over the comparable merits of various firearms, scopes, and calibers, there are a few things that most can agree on.  One is that you cannot skimp on equipment used for precision marksmanship; buy expensive, quality equipment.  Match-grade ammunition is what you want for precision shooting work.  Try out different brands and different loads for your gun as some guns respond better to certain loads.  Experienced shooters may want to consider hand-loading their ammunition; many champion competition shooters do.  A purpose-designed rifle needs to hold a 1 minute-of-angle group (1” per 100 yards range to target) out of the box; some excellent rifles are guaranteed to hold .5 or even .25 MOA, though you’d have to be a better shooter than I am to take advantage of such quality!  Scopes and the rings that hold the scope on the rifle are just as important as the rifle itself.  While I highly recommend learning to shoot on iron sights, a scope is a necessity for precision shooting.  Given our discussion of mil-dots earlier you’ll already have deduced that you don’t want to consider a scope without them (or some other equivalent integrated range-finding aid).

A few accessories that you’ll want to seriously consider: A cheek-rest if your rifle doesn’t come with an integrated variable one.  Being underfunded Marines, we made ours out of green duct tape, closed cell foam and moleskin, but some very nice ones are on the market.  Bipods are very useful and a worthwhile addition.  If you don’t have one you’ll want some kind of brace for the front of the rifle.  We used more closed cell foam taped into a pair of parallel braces on our rucksacks or butt packs.  Also a good sand-sock is used for propping up the butt of the rifle by the non-trigger hand while shooting.  This eliminates another source of vibration that comes from contact with that hand.  I made mine from a one pound bag of peas wrapped in a pair of socks.  It’s functional and survival-riffic!

Caliber
I would recommend two rounds as top contenders for an anti-personnel precision shooting system: the .308 (7.62x51mm for you military types) and the .300 Winchester Magnum.  Smaller calibers, such as the .243 or .223 may have extremely high muzzle velocities, but their bullets lack the mass to counter the drift caused by wind and are thus inappropriate for long-range shooting.  On the other end of the spectrum, there are only a few descent contenders in the magnum round field; the .338 Lapua Magnum, .408 Chey Tac and the .50 BMG are the most widely accepted.  Major Plaster in the book The Ultimate Sniper analyzes five other magnum rounds against the .300 and discusses the deficiencies to be found in all of them.  The .338 Lapua Mag, .408 and .50 were not included on this list (though I believe they are discussed in his newer edition), and are large enough, expensive enough, and specialized enough that they are not truly suitable for a side-by-side comparison with the .308 or the .300 Win Mag. 

.308 vs. .300 Winchester Magnum
Off-the-shelf match-grade .308 ammunition is widely available, Match-grade .300 Winchester Magnum is also available, but in somewhat less variety.  Both rounds have quite a few excellent firearms which will chamber them.  They have a relatively flat trajectory, the ability to counter the effects of wind, and retain energy at long range (which translates into “stopping power”).  On this last point, a military M-118 173 grain .308 sniper round has 545 foot-pounds of energy at 1,000 yards, while a 200 grain Federal Premium .300 Win. Mag has 995 foot-pounds of energy at the same range.  Compare these to a 230 grain Speer .45 ACP pistol round, which at the muzzle has 404 foot-pounds of energy.  In other words a long range rifle bullet has more power when it hits its target a 1000 yards away than a standard pistol round at point blank range.

The .308 is the standard US military sniper round and can engage targets at 1000 yards.  However, Major J. Plaster makes a strong case in favor of the .300 Win. Mag in his book, citing superior energy at range and superior ability to counter the effects of wind.  The .300 Winchester Magnum pushes the maximum effective range of a good shooter out past 1.000 yards, but the ammunition is pricier, barrel life shorter, and the kick nastier than with a .308. 

Two primary choices present themselves when it comes to precision rifles: bolt action or semi-automatic.  While it is easier to make a bolt-action rifle more accurate than a semi-auto, there are quite a few tack-driving semi-auto sniper rifles on the market.  However, the semi-auto will cost more.  The choice here comes down to the rifle’s purpose.  A semi-auto can be used more effectively at closer ranges where volume of fire becomes more important, but using your $2,000 sniper rifle as a general battle rifle may not be a wildly effective use of resources.  It’s a decision you have to make based upon projected use and funds.

 

Closing thoughts and caveats
I believe that it is critical to keep morality in mind as we consider preparations for a possible TEOTWAWKI.  In the end, it is about more than simply surviving, it is about surviving and remaining the people we want to be.  When we pull ourselves back up by the bootstraps will you be able to look your grandchildren in the eye and recount what you did to survive?  When your Day comes, will you be able to do the same to God?

On a more technical note, there is a world of information on precision marksmanship and firearms/ammunition that I only alluded to or glossed over.  If you are considering pursuing this as a hobby, sport, or survival tool, then seek out quality information and qualified instruction – it will make for a shorter, easier, cheaper, and more enjoyable road.

Resources:
The Ultimate Sniper by Major John Plaster, 2006, ISBN 1581604947
Front Sight’s 4-Day Civilian Precision Shooting Course.
Sniper Central: a sniping-oriented site with very polite forums; there is a great deal of very excellent information about ballistics on this site if you look for it
Sniper’s Hide: another site/forum for snipers and precision shooters
Long Range Shooter: another good site for long-range shooting

JWR Adds: I also highly recommend Darryl Holland’s long range shooting school. His classes will be taught this year in Powers, Oregon and College Station, Texas.



Letter Re: Cold Weather Patrol Tactics and Techniques

Dear JWR:
Regarding the recent Cold Weather Patrol Tactics and Techniques article, just one note about condensation prevention from bringing a cold weapon indoors. Packing or leaving a heavy duty garbage or similar bag outside and placing your weapon inside the bag can greatly reduce condensation from the indoor climate. Just place your weapon completely inside the bag. I like to compress the opening in my hand like a balloon opening and instead of blowing into this opening, I suck as much air out as I can with my lungs. If two or more deep inhalations are required to remove excess air after manual compression of the bag, remember to close your hand around the bag opening to avoid the bag expanding. Once you are satisfied you have removed as much air as possible, tie the opening very tightly with a rubber band, tape or the bag itself. I have found this technique to nearly eliminate all condensation on the weapon as the metal warms to ambient indoor temperature, but the plastic bag will have some moisture on the outside.

I do not recommend the usage of heavy duty compression or vacuum bags if the weapon is your first line defense arm. Unless these bags have a rapid way to open and extract your weapon, I prefer the tear-away and cheap garbage bags to allow rapid rearming when needed. However, as an aide to the air removal, I have seen the usage of small hand pumps and even a small battery powered air mattress inflator used in a reverse role. – J.G.

JWR Replies: That is a good suggestion. Of course, once a gun fully equalizes to room temperature, it should soon be removed from the bag, so that any trace of moisture doesn’t settle on the gun an induce rust.



Three Letters Re: How Your World View and Preparedness Mindset are Influenced by Your Eschatology

James:
Regarding the recent piece on eschatology and prepper Christian world views: We must suffer.

I’m not sure which is correct; post-trib, pre-trib, mid-trib, post-mil, whatever. But I know this: Some hold to pre-trib rapture simply because of an assumption that God won’t let His children suffer. But that turns a blind eye to the unmentionable suffering of Christians in the world today.

The Bible tells us to expect suffering: “Through many tribulations we must enter the kingdom.” (Acts 14:22) Peter said, “Do not be surprised at the fiery ordeal among you, which comes upon you for your testing, as though some strange thing were happening to you” (1 Peter 4:12). In other words it is not strange; it is to be expected. And Paul said (in 2 Timothy 3:12), “Indeed, all who desire to live godly in Christ Jesus will be persecuted.”

Two reasons to prepare anyway Two reasons it’s not foolish to prepare even if you are pre-trib: 1.) You might be mistaken on your interpretation of the Bible. Do not arrogantly assume you are correct about a topic for which there is considerable debate amongst intelligent, godly scholars (applies to post-trib as well). Such hubris will only harm people. I’m hoping the rapture happens before the tribulation and living as though it won’t. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. 2.) These might not be the last days. Don’t assume that simply because many nations are headed for great difficulty that Christ is definitely coming. You’d have thought Jesus was coming any second during the last days of the Great Depression when the Dust Bowl consumed your food and Hitler was rising to power.

There are many reasons to think these days are indeed the last days. I’m 75% sure we’re in them. It’s the other 25% which bothers me: History is littered with great upheavals and all along they were sure it was the time to see Jesus. Even in Paul’s day they were saying it was the last days (2 Thessalonians 2).

Yet I’m 100% sure America will suffer great poverty within my lifetime — unless we have a mighty miracle. When we see winter coming we should prepare: “Four things on earth are small, but they are exceedingly wise: the ants are a people not strong, yet they provide their food in the summer…” (Proverbs 30:24,25 ESV)

Physically and spiritually James Rawles at SurvivalBlog.com is doing a great job teaching us how to physically prepare. One way to spiritually prepare is to start with many of the incredibly rich, free resources by Dr. John Piper. Start with the short videos, then listen to or read the other messages. Short video: America’s Ugly Exported “Gospel” Short video: Why Did the Bridge Collapse? Where Is God? (My favorite!) The Suffering of Christ and the Sovereignty of God , Don’t Waste Your Cancer,   Doing Missions When Dying Is Gain

Book that’s now free thanks to generosity: Suffering and the Sovereignty of God. (Both it and its study guide are free.).

More goodies: Essential Resources

The Bible can be deeply soul-satisfying in times of suffering, and I’m thankful for Dr. Piper’s work in exposing these truths.

Meditate on your Bible Much of the Bible is written for hard times, and up until now we’ve been living in Disney World so it hasn’t made as much sense. Half of the Psalms will pop off the page once things really start rolling. The writings surrounding the Babylonian capture are particularly applicable.

I suggest you start right now by reading Matthew 6:19-34 and Habakkuk 3:17-19 out loud. It seems to have a stronger effect when you read it out loud.

Also see Luke 12, the Psalms and Lamentations.

Memorize your Bible — with some excellent help I’m really bad at memorizing Scripture, but I’ve got some crutches which work wonders. David said, “I have stored up your word in my heart, that I might not sin against you.” (Psalm 119:11) (Yes, I wrote that from memory.) One day I was worried about the bee colony collapse disorder when Habakkuk 3:17-19 immediately popped into my head. I didn’t have to think, “What’s that verse about food?” It just immediately came to mind. The Spirit kept me from sinning by reminding me of a memorized passage.

I’ve got the “Hide the Word” CD series because I’m really bad at memorization. (Free samples here.) They definitely work, and are worth their weight in gold. You can also get Seeds Family Worship, the Glory Revealed CDs, and this free scripture memorization series. Also see Amazon’s and Google Shopping’s offerings. Worth their weight in gold!

Trust God. Oh that more Christians would trust God in hard times! He suffered more than any of us so He understands suffering (Hebrews 4:15).

He knows what we need before we ask (Matthew 6:8). He promised that if we seek first the Kingdom that food and clothing will be provided (Luke 12). George Mueller proved this with over 50,000 specific answers to prayer for specific needs.

One day He will deliver us from all suffering: “He will wipe away every tear from their eyes, and death shall be no more, neither shall there be mourning, nor crying, nor pain anymore, for the former things have passed away.” (Revelation 21:4 ESV) Amen! Come quickly Lord Jesus.

In summary, it’s wise to prepare for both physical and spiritual suffering, whether you are pre-trib or post-trib. Even if nothing happens you’ll still have goods left over to give to the needy. – C.D.V.

Dear B.H. in  North Central Idaho,
Your letter was well thought out and delivered and I agree with some of the statements you made.  However, I struggled with your claims on the eschatology of some of the religions you mentioned such as Mormons and Seventh Day Adventists.  Having many close friends in both those churches and knowing what they believe, I’m sorry sir, but they don’t meet the criteria you assigned to them.  There are far more believers outside of those churches, and considered more mainstream, that believe in the Rapture.  The last time I spoke to my Mormon and Seventh Day Adventist friends they were preparing for a long hard ride through the Tribulation or any other catastrophe that might befall us.  Many of them are doctors, medics, teachers, and community volunteers who are out there helping their fellow man just as you suggest and they are doing it now–not waiting for a TEOTWAWKI.  I know because I am in the emergency medical field and a community volunteer and that is where I met many of them.  Might I suggest that rather than focusing on our differences we might instead focus on what we do have in common so that we might work together for the good.  “Every kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation, and  a house divided against a house falls. ” – Luke 11:17. Respectfully,- J.H. in Washington State

 

Mr. Rawles,
Regarding the recent article on SurvivalBlog entitled “How Your World View and Preparedness Mindset are Influenced by Your Eschatology”:

Some readers may be interested to know that all three books recommended by B.H. are available (digitally) for free on Dr. Gary North’s Freebooks page.



Economics and Investing:

Avalanche Lily spotted this: Report Card on Obama’s First Two Years. Those commodity inflation numbers look very troubling. What we are now witnessing is not so much commodities going up as it is the U.S. Dollar going down in purchasing power. If you haven’t done so already, then start shifting out of Dollar-denominated investments and into tangibles! Don’t overlook buying long term storage foods as both a hedge on inflation, and as a survival reserve for your family for times of scarcity.

Analyst Warns of 2015 Bank Crisis Amid ‘Upbeat’ Davos. “The fundamentals haven’t been addressed at all,” Wilkinson, a London-based partner at consulting firm Oliver Wyman, said in an interview at the Hotel Morosani Schweizerhof. “The things that caused the previous crisis — loose monetary policy and trade imbalances — they’re actually bigger now than they were then.”

B.B. sent us the link to the latest from the NIA: Americans Will Flock Into $5,000 Gold and $500 Silver

Our friends in Appenzell, Switzerland at The Daily Bell posted this: Central Banks Now Creating Hyperinflation?

Items from The Economatrix:

Bernanke Warns of Catastrophe if Debt Limit Not Raised  

Egypt Diverts Media Attention From US Economy  

GOP Plan Would Let States Go Bankrupt; Prospect Rocks Bond Market  

Bernanke Speech Helps Push Stocks Higher



Inflation Watch:

Companies Stock Up as Commodities Prices Rise. (This sort of hedging can of course start a snowballing effect.)

Why Global Food Price Inflation Really Matters  

Reader B.B. highlighted this: As World Becomes Zimbabwefied, Cotton Futures Surge 17% In One Month

Treasury TIPS: A Looming Disaster for Small Investors

Inflation ‘Higher Than Official Statistics Reveal’. (An interview with Marc Faber.)

Supermarket surprise: smaller servings, same price.

Bond Market Flashes Inflation Warning: Jump in U.S. Treasury yields signals market fear that Fed is behind the curve on prices