Helping Friends and Family Gear Up, by L.D.L.

As I sit here this evening, I am watching the aftermath of recent Missouri and Alabama tornadoes, Midwest flooding and western fires on television.  In the southeast, hurricane season will be upon them and there is always the possibility of an earthquake throughout the US. The news carries stories of our county’s continuing financial decline and overwhelming debt. I watch as the value of gold, silver and other precious metals climb and the value of our dollar continues to drop.

The next segment of the news has reports of increasing gas prices, increasing taxes and increasing crime. The growing unrest in the Middle East threatens to push the cost of a gallon of gas to more than $6 not to mention destabilization of the entire region. No, we here in the US get comparatively little of our oil from the Middle East any longer, but that doesn’t stop the instability there causing our gas prices to rise here.

I live in a suburban Missouri neighborhood which has experienced very little crime over the years. If you listen to the local police scanner, crime in our area consists of the occasional DUI, Speeder or Petty Theft from an open garage of a kid’s bike. The police here will turn out if there is a report of a party or a house being toilet papered as a tenage prank.. Pretty boring from a law enforcement standpoint, but last weekend every Police Officer and Sherriff’s Deputy in the county were two streets over for a hostage situation. We recently had our first bank robbery and crime has begun to move out of the city, across the river and int to our quiet suburban neighborhood. As the economy breaks down, the crime rate goes up.

And yet, I remain hesitant to discuss preparing for TEOTWAWKI scenarios with my friends and neighbors. They like many people they would rather keep their heads in the sand and ignore reality than face something that monumental. They think that those who prepare are “a little loony”; a little over zealous. Even my own family thought that I might be a little over the top, that is until recently.

With all of the recent disasters they have had an epiphany. I have also changed how I approach the subject. Instead of talking about the proverbial  “when the Schumer hit the fan” situation, I now refer to the recent Earthquake in Japan or the Tornados that hit St. Louis to provide a reason for some basic preparation that they can identify with. Rather than looking at the really big picture, I can refer to the small picture and motivate my family and friends to make some preparations if only to cover the short term. Of course I recommend those preparations be able to support them for 7 to 10 days versus the usual 3, but even this is an easier lift than it used to be.

All of us have probably experienced this same feeling of awkwardness trying to convince those we love and care for to prepare for the inevitable.  But depending on how we frame our recommendations and our reasons determines if we can get their buy in. Done right, it will work. It has worked for me.

Once you get their (usually tentative) Buy-In, the next challenge is to get them to make appropriate preparations. You must help them tailor a Go Bag to not only their needs, but the most likely situations or possible disasters. Two guiding principles I try to follow are to make it familiar and make it as small as possible. For some reason, the smaller the kit, the more they will accept it.
In my situation my wife teaches at a school about 20 miles and across two major river bridges from our home. My daughter, on the other hand, goes to school at a local university and doesn’t have to cross any major bridges and is less than 10 miles away from home. So the kit I will build for my wife will be different than the one I build for my daughter.

To make my wife’s situation more challenging, she decided that after all of the minivans and Soccer-Mom cars she wanted a convertible sports car now that the kids are grown, so that is what she drives. A beautiful and dependable car, but it offers little security or ground clearance. Broken road material could bring this vehicle and her escape home to a screeching halt. Though not as small as some, but because it is a convertible it has very little trunk room. This means it has very little room for a Go Bag.

Now normally I would have a small bag in the car to get you to your bigger bag at home, but considering that if the bridges are down due to an earthquake, she may have to survive for quite a while with just this bag. Here the situation dictates a larger kit, but storage space limits it.

My only big advantage is that she usually carries a case of bottled water in her trunk. Other than that, though she likes to camp, (in a nice campground) the idea of survival is a bit beyond her. So, making the contents or her Go Bag very self explanatory and familiar will make it useable for her. Yes, it is limited and there is a bigger one at home, but you have to work within the parameters given.

With the contents of the bag, I included instructions with how to use the contents and the possible optional uses for each. Radio channels for the handheld radio in the kit and points of contact are listed. I also included short notes of encouragement. As someone who has taught wilderness survival for the past 38 years and urban survival for the past 20 years, I revert back to my training when I am faced with a situation. My wife, daughter, son and friends haven’t the training or experience that I have so they don’t have that to fall back on. Anything that I can do to lessen or relieve their anxiety and overcome their stress will greatly increase their probability of survival and success. Besides, the little notes will be appreciated by them especially if things get difficult.

By taking a different tack on the need for preparation, and then adjusting my expectations to meet my wife’s expectations, I was able to get her onboard. By making the kit contents familiar, I was able to make it user friendly. This results in making my wife more comfortable with the concept of survival in an emergency and reducing the expected anxiety.

As a side note I also include a few treats to help support morale. Things like small family pictures. For young Grandkids I include a small stuffed animal. A small, soft throw blanket can add comfort for her should she have to sleep in an unusual location, like her car. Including food that is familiar and she likes along with rationing instructions makes survival easier. A piece of candy is always a morale and energy booster. Remember, in a real emergency people will be scared and experiencing many emotions. Anything that you can do to mitigate those fears and lessen those emotions will go a long way to help them survive the situation.

As you probably know, it is not about gear, but knowledge for those who are trained. For those who are not, it is all about instructions. Helping family or friends prepare for a disaster is much harder than helping yourself. Where as you may and probably do work at learning all you can about preparedness and survival, the person you are helping usually has little or no knowledge so it will take some work to support them. It can be frustrating, but remain calm and charitable. What you do now will pay off in spades when the SHTF. Take your time; add a little knowledge here and there. When you can reference the survival use of a piece of equipment, do so. It makes the understanding of the use of the piece much easier and easier to recall when needed.
As you write instructions use simple clear instructions. Pictures go a long way to support clear understanding. Using familiar items decreases the fumble factor. If they can identify an item they are much more likely to succeed in its use; odd or unfamiliar items significantly increases anxiety. These items are always more likely to be discarded or left in the kit and not bothered with. One other tip I would make is to use the best quality items you can afford. In my personal Go Bag, I have Columbia River Knife and Tool (CRKT) fixed blade and folding knives. Yes, there are more expensive knives out there, but for the price, these are excellent and I would trust my life to these. Buying cheap may save a few bucks, but if the item breaks or fails to function when needed what is the real cost? Besides, you want to make things as easy as possible since everything else is going wrong. Don’t do anything to add to their concerns. Should the SHTF there will be enough to worry about.

I will mention firearms here as an example of adjusting your expectations. I am armed every day. I always have a small concealed carry pistol with me and I keep a larger fighting handgun in a gun vault in my truck. Because my wife teaches in a public school, she is unable to carry a firearm on campus so the compromise was a Taser. It is not the best option, but it is one of the compromises that you have to make sometimes. This is just one example of adjusting your expectations. Her Taser is backed up with a couple of cans of Pepper Spray, but that is the best we can do. In all reality, she is not really supposed to have those on school property, but it was a reasonable compromise. Sometimes compromise is good.

So the next time you want to introduce your family or friends to the ideas and concepts of emergency preparedness and urban survival, take a lesson from my experience. Carefully consider your approach. Make sure that you reference emergencies that they can identify with. Use emergencies that are likely and realistic for your location. Adjust your expectations to meet theirs. As you help them with their preparations, use supplies that are familiar and they can use (a Bic Lighter is much more familiar than a Blast Match for most people); so their chance of success with them is significantly improved. And lastly include instructions describing how, where and when to use each of the contents. A listing of local and out of area contact numbers reminds them to make the call if they can. Notes of encouragement are optional, but can’t hurt. Good Luck and God Speed.



Tangible Investments for the Future, by Donald V.

Until recently, I had been confused on how to invest my savings, in anticipation of future currency inflation.  Our family is truly blessed by the Lord and we have a small farm that is our retreat.  We have also made stocking up on beans and bullets a regular and routine practice; for which I am very thankful.  While these items allow me to sleep at night; especially after reading the news, any extra that we put away will likely be used for charity; and thus I do not feel that these items are an investment and in a true schumer scenario, aside from self-preservation.  My guns have some value, however my definition of an investment is something that will gain value or grow wealth over time that is easily tradable.  Included in my definition of an investment is something that will gain value with or without a Schumer.  At this time, my guns are not something I am looking to trade in the near future unless I am desperate.  Buying guns are also a large ticket item and is not something that is easily invested on a monthly or even quarterly basis.  Finally, sadly enough with changing gun laws there could be a time when it is difficult to sell firearms at a profit or as an individual.

So for the last several years I was “plum lost” on investing.  The stock market is at a fictitious high; like a crack addict standing up on a cliff and looking for his next hit.  While I still work for the man and have one of those sucker-you-in matching 401(k) plans, it feels like I am tossing good money down the drain so this is a minimal investment.  I have bought gold and silver over the years, not much mind you, not nearly what I would like or should have bought, but I have bought some and I also purchased several hundred dollars in nickels to set aside.  But the trick to investing is buying low and selling high and as metals continue to hit new highs, I still occasionally buy metals but feel like I’ve missed the train.  Investing is something I’ve enjoyed in the past and I’ve made a few bucks in the stock market but for anyone who understands the historical actions of the market, it is in a strange trance waiting for a break.  Any dollar going into the market is a fool’s errand right now.

One of our largest investments has been education.  The most important aspect of the equation is preparing my children.  We have been homeschooling for several years after a short but unsatisfying stint with the public school system.  The best part about homeschooling is that education becomes a way of life and you are constantly considering lessons for your children.  Often, while you are trying to give them that next life lesson hoping it just might stick; you find you learn a few new tricks along the way.  This weekend was one such lesson, one that I want to share with you as it changed another aspect of my preparations and became a new investment.

As I said; we homeschool so my wife is at home with our children constantly.  Understandably, she needs a break every once in a while or she goes loco and so we (the children and I) planned on being out of the house on Saturday.  Work has been a drag and uninspiringly I had a zoo outing planned.  Fortunately it rained and our last minute decision was to instead head to an auction. 

If you do not go to auctions, I would recommend everyone to take a look at AuctionZip.com.  Type in your local Zip code and it will give you a monthly calendar with all the auctions in a radius from your home.  As you become familiar with the auction houses in your area you will find favorites.  Typically I like to check this site as well as the auction house sites to understand the type of auction (estate, farm, antique, etc.).  Most auction houses list a majority of the goods and always the best items as bait.  Good auction houses post pictures as well and large sales even have previews the day before.  Once I decide there is something of value, I try to price the goods I want on line (Craigslist, eBay, etc.) so I know what would be a good economic deal (although on this day, since it was a last minute decision I did not have my usual homework completed).  The one danger of an auction is that you can get caught up in the action–an auctioneer’s prized skill.  They make their money off commissions and want the highest price possible.  On the other side, you can buy coins and metal, old tools, farm animals, equipment, guns (depending upon local laws) and a whole lot more at reasonable prices.

So my children and I headed out for the auction, but since I am with my 9 and 6 year old, there is no urgent rush.  We have a lazy breakfast at the local pancake house, hit a church rummage sale (where my daughter dickered for a princess purse but decided a Hannah Montana doll was too pricey), followed it up with a construction company moving sale (where we bought nails by the pail for pennies) and then the auction last.  All of these different “stores” teach my children how to evaluate “stuff.”  We bargained, dickered and bid for different things throughout the day and only our breakfast was a predetermined price as we relished our off-the-menu blueberry pancakes.  It also teaches them the intrinsic value of well made goods versus just being “new.”  I could also go into the whole recycling spiel, but we are all fed that diatribe on a regular basis and this audience understands it more deeply than I can write in a one line tangent. 

In any case, the last place we stopped was an auction held at (but not by) the National Guard Armory a bit more than an hour drive away.  After oohing and ahhing over the tanks out front, we sauntered in during the late afternoon well past the auction’s prime.  Our timing was perfect.  Most people had left for lunch and there were only a handful of stalwarts out who had already spent quite a bit of money that morning.  Auctions are notorious at keeping a handful of good items to hold the crowds interest and this auction was no different but still the interest of the people there was obviously waning.  We arrived just before they started on a large batch of coins.  My son and I have been investing in metals and I had an idea of the current melt prices.  His eyes lit up as we approached the table and he pulled on my sleeve to get into the bidding.  Others were better educated than us and so nothing was free, but we got a few things that we knew were worth the greenbacks traded in exchange.  There were a series of foreign mint sets that the serious collectors had little interest so I let my boy who is the nine year old do the bidding.  I told him what I thought it was worth and if he wanted to pay a premium, he could feel free to do so.  He stepped in to bid and kept his eye on the prize, not getting flustered or suckered in and bought a set of pristine Deutschmarks minted in the 1970s. Afterwards, I received more than one compliment on the great job by my boy from the various gentlemen and auctioneers participating in the day’s events.  I also talked to a couple of the more knowledgeable coin guys asking why they paid more for certain articles and learned a few new tricks for my next auction.  When we checked prices later, we found the same Deutschmark set on eBay sold four to five times more than what we paid.  My son was delighted in his trophy.

After making sure my son was doing well, my daughter and I went and bid on some old tools (which were five feet away).  The Lord works in mysterious ways as I at that time I was in the middle of reading The Homesteader’s Handbook. Written in the 1930s, he has a section on tools and how to use them.  As this is a period piece, all the tools he referenced are now antiques, but it is a great list for vintage hand tools if you are worried about the lights going out.  At this lovely auction, I saw for the first time, a hand drill with a chest brace; something I had never even heard of until I read this book.  I had a small collection of older tools as I do like tools, but this auction had a good selection of well maintained hand tools from the late 1800s through 1950s.  I have a few buggy wrenches that we inherited from my wife’s grandfather and there were plenty of good examples in the auction.  My daughter and I won just about every bid (whereupon she would jump up and down excitedly until she just tuckered out and bunkered down with our winnings) on the older tools and only lost if something was lumped together with a power drill or other modern contrivance that I did not want.  We made a heavy haul on these older tools as well as some interesting odds and ends like a good conditioned butter churn and a bunch of candles at well less than a nickel each.  We evaluated our purchases on E-bay that night and realized that we got a better deal that we thought.  If I tried to buy the same tools on eBay I would have easily paid twice or more the amount.

One item we got was an old cedar chest that was no longer useable as a cedar chest.  It was still solid but it had a musty smell and was not the prettiest thing to see although at one time it must have been a beauty.  Sadly, it was just not restorable as it was covered with a wicker veneer and was missing bits of the trim. We won it in a bid that included a full set of encyclopedias and a set of pipe wrenches all for the low price of $1.  This is incentive to go find the auctions.

Now on to investing advice.  Investing has traditionally been more than monetary substitutes (metal, stocks, dollars, etc.).  Historically investing has been land, art work and other items of value; say antiques.  Some of these items like land and art are significant investments and made sparingly during ones lifetime.  Others should be made regularly.  Afterwards, my children and I spent a long afternoon cleaning and oiling these old tools, wrapping them lightly in cloth and placed in the aforementioned cedar chest with a handful of desiccant.  We have our modern tools to use for working around the house and I already have some of the older tools that we do use regularly.  The tools we put away were rare and valuable.  For me, as I explained to my children, this was a modern day treasure chest.  We have these tools if we ever need to use them, but if not, they are well protected and will only become worth more as they age.  It is a win-win situation.  It has changed the way I view my preparations and I am looking for more of these scenarios where I believe regardless of the situation, my family and I will be better off.  If the world hangs on as is against all odds, I can imagine the delighted look on my children’s or grandchildren’s face when they open this box, years from now, loaded with well preserved antique tools.  If the schumer hits the fan, I can picture the same delighted look (as well as one of relief or thankfulness) as these tools will provide the ability to do work that would be difficult at best without and any duplicates will make great barter items.

One last remark on these tools, every single one of them; all at least fifty years olds and some much older are American made.  Forged in Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago; these are places my children know and have visited. The last lesson my children learned is that the USA used to be the manufacturing capital of the world and the stuff that we did make was made for the ages.

While I didn’t plan this experience I was fortunate enough to a) be a prepper and realize the value of the equipment and b) be a homeschooler attentive enough to realize the value of the lesson.  My best advice, whether with regard to prepping or just living life is to always be observant and grab opportunities when available.  There are many great options everyday to become better prepared.

A last addendum: over the Easter Holiday I was traveling to visit my relatives and went to visit the local antique shops in their town square.  The goal was to add to my tool collection, which I did and bought a few more vintage tools.  However the big win was with silver coins.  Silver has skyrocketed so quickly, the coins were marked at coin value versus silver and well under melt prices.  Realizing this I quickly bought out the place of WWII Nickels, pre-’65 dimes, and a handful of quarters, half dollars and even a well priced Morgan [Silver Dollar].  Apparently I didn’t miss the train on silver investing after all and based on current market values I could have turned the silver over for a 20% profit.  Some (not all) had a collector value as well.  As indicated in my previous closing paragraph, there are great options every day for those who are observant and grab the opportunity.



Letter Re: Parachute Cord Bracelets

Hi Jim,  
After I saw Liam Neeson with a parachute cord bracelet at the beginning of the movie The A-Team, I thought “Okay, I got to get one.”   After waiting around for the vendor who makes those to show up at one of the local gun shows, I finally went on YouTube, and guess what? I learned how to make them myself. They’re not difficult to make. As a matter of fact, the company you linked-to yesterday (SportBraceletStore.com) makes a simple two-piece Cobra Weave. I crank those out like candy, using a simple jig I made using a carabiner, a C-clamp, and a plastic clothes hanger.  

Knowing how to make those will not only be a good post-collapse hands-on skill for barter, but also a moneymaker in the present. They cost me next to nothing in materials or time, as I now make them right there at my gun show table, between sales. At one show, I even custom made three of them for a family, while they waited. At $12 each, they move pretty well.   On the other hand, if your making watchbands, three-cord weaves, or “monkey fists,” those require some extra skill.   Cheers. – Jerry E.



Letter Re: Ruger’s Model 77 Hawkeye in .300 Winchester Magnum

Jim::

Congrats to Pat for writing a nice review. There are a few items I would have included that may make a difference to a shooter with this caliber, especially for new shooters:

1. when shooting in the prone, expect to leave a dust cloud marking your position. You can lay a wet burlap sack on the ground beneath the muzzle to assist in disguising your position. This is a powerful caliber, remember, there are no free lunches with anything firearms related.

2. Even if you reload, you will be paying more for this cartridge [, since the brass and primers are more expensive].

3. You won’t see this caliber on the shelf at every gun store or in many households or police departments. Supply should be a concern for this group.

4. A .308 Winchester gets the job done at or less than 600 yards if you are familiar with your firearm and the ballistic chart [for your particular load]. The .308 will even suffice out to 800 yards, for the overachievers. 

5. Identify the quality, weight and price of the scope you will need to hit anything over 800 yards before purchasing.

Shooters should ask themselves if they think they’ll need to take a shot at greater than 600 yards. I have no problem with “bigger is better” or the caliber. Everything Ruger makes is high quality. Good luck and happy hunting. – Pete in Florida



A Late April Snow and Wind Storm Illustrates the Need to Be Prepared

James,
Things can fall apart rather quickly.  Today’s example is why you always want to carry a survival kit (BOB) in your vehicle.  People are stranded all over western North Dakota on the last day of April.  Who would have anticipated this?  The weather service put out warnings that many ignored and those who stayed home are without power. A total of five major electrical feeds into the state are down which is unheard of.  What couldn’t happen, happened. Mile after mile of power poles are sheared off and snow drifts of up to 10 feet and zero visibility is slowing any attempts to rescue stranded motorists and stopping power company personnel trying to restore power.  Readers may listen to this interview with the power company manager by Jim Olson from KX news, Channel 13 out of Minot, North Dakota.  Jim Olson Interview

Thanks for SurvivalBlog. – Bob (At the end of the gravel road in North Dakota)



Four Letters Re: Why Store Wheat?

James Wesley:
According to the folks at aaoobfoods.com they have a “recipe” to grow yeast on potato granules/flakes. They are out of Amite, Louisiana. They are great! Thank you, James Wesley. Sincerely, – Ron M.

 

Jim:
Yeast can be cultured at home to prolong its use indefinitely http://www.wikihow.com/Culture-Yeast

That aside people have eaten flat bread like matzoh for centuries.

Of course that pasta he spoke of is also typically fashioned from wheat. Not that everyone can make their own homemade pasta but yes it can be done by those who really wish to. Cheers, Rich F.

Mr. Rawles,
I read the note from a reader concerning yeast not being available for making bread. I bake bread with baking powder (aluminum free), sodium bicarb, and salt. This makes a light loaf, but not quite as light as yeast bread, however, it still tastes great (judging by how fast my kids make it disappear). Regards, – Mike C.

James,  
Michael wrote in asking “Why Store Wheat?” as the lack of yeast would mean only eating wheat cereal or sprouts.  There are many wonderful uses of wheat!  I’m sure he knows many of them and has simply overlooked them.  In addition to wheat breads, that wheat can be ground into flour for biscuits, mixed with corn flour for cornbread, flour tortillas, pancakes, crackers, biscotti, focaccia, pita bread, other flatbreads, cakes, crusts, pasta, dumplings, and more.  While yeast may not store forever, baking soda and cream of tartar do and together they make baking powder ( 2 parts cream of tarter to 1 part soda – 1 part corn starch can be added optionally) which can be used in many of the above.   

In addition to flour, you can also make bulgar from your wheat berries. Bulgar can be used for salads, soups, used in place of rice, or to make a sort of gravy.  It can be stuffed in sausages to stretch scarce meat supplies.  Boil your wheat with 2:1 water to wheat for about an hour until the wheat berries have swollen.  Drain and then dry/dehydrate the wheat until completely dry.  Then coarsely crack the dried berries and store for future use.   You can also make a gluten meat substitute from wheat.  Make flour and then add just enough water to make a stiff dough.  Knead for about fifteen minutes.  Put your dough in a large bowl or sink and gently wash, while kneading, in a good amount of cool water. The dough will soften with the additional water.  Pour off the water.  Repeat washing and squeezing until the dough firms up again and the water runs clear.  The stuff sloughing off into the water is bran and starch.  If you save the runoff water, you can let it settle and pour off the water on top and use the rest for making crackers or other purposes.  Once your gluten dough has finished washing you should cook it.  Steam it for 20-30 minutes or pinch off pieces and cook in simmering broth or water for 30 minutes.  After that the gluten can be sliced, cubed, chunked or ground to be used as a meat substitute in other dishes.  The ground gluten can be used as filler for meatballs, hamburger patties, sausage, etc. again to extend scarce meat supplies.  

Lastly, you can make malt from sprouted wheat and use it for sweetener or as a substitute for sugar or honey.   So, there you go.  Wheat is almost a wonder food!  And that’s just off the top of head in a few minutes.  Wheat has a very long storage life and actually provides quite a bit of variety if you use your imagination.  I’m sure someone else will contribute many more ideas. – Matthew T.



Economics and Investing:

Jeff Reeves: The nine places where inflation is crushing us. (Thanks to Paul B. for the link.)

G.G. flagged a piece at Zero Hedge: More Americans Believe The Country Is In A Depression Than Growing

The World’s Last Typewriter Factory Closes in India. (A hat tip to RBS for the link.)

Spotted at Fierce Finance: Goldman Sachs: Too big to prosecute

Items from The Economatrix:

Massive Raid on Silver / Open Interest in Silver Remains High

Everything’s OK with Economy, Go Back to Sleep

S&P Cuts Japan’s Rating Outlook to Negative

US House Prices Fall Close to 2009 Lows With Record Number of Foreclosures Blamed

US States Pension Fund Deficits Widen By 26%

Obamaflation Arrives



Odds ‘n Sods:

Steve D. was the first of several readers to send this: Feds Raid Amish Milk Farm.

   o o o

George J. spotted this bit on Nanny Statism news: N.J. town limits chicken hookups. Here is a quote: “Hopewell Township residents can have up to a half-dozen hens on half-acre lots. Roosters would be allowed only 10 days a year for fertilization purposes.”

   o o o

The annual book “Passport to World Band Radio” is now out of print (sadly, the final edition was published in 2009) but I’ve found that The Shortwave Listener’s Guide web site seems to be kept well up-to-date. I must say that there are times when I’m in the boonies that I really miss having current references like that in hard copy!

   o o o

In the spirit of the Avalanche Cliff Jump video that I recently posted, Troy H. sent me another fun video: Roller Suiting Down the Gothard Pass Road. I wonder what the motorcyclists thought, as he passed them.

   o o o

Jon B. in Georgia flagged a news story from Alabama that serves as a bit of confirmation on human nature: Looters pilfering through shattered homes; nighttime curfew imposed



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“The LORD [is] thy keeper: the LORD [is] thy shade upon thy right hand.

The sun shall not smite thee by day, nor the moon by night.

The LORD shall preserve thee from all evil: he shall preserve thy soul.

The LORD shall preserve thy going out and thy coming in from this time forth, and even for evermore.” – Psalm 121:5-8 (KJV)



Note from JWR:

Today we present another two entries for Round 34 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and B.) Two cases of Alpine Aire freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $400 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo , and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, C.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and D.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.) , and B.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value.

Round 34 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Raising Midget White Turkeys, the Perfect Homestead Meat Bird, by L.C. and D.B.

Like many preppers, we’ve been looking for ways to expand our self-sufficiency.  With 25 years of experience raising chickens for both meat and eggs, adding another meat fowl seemed like a good move.  Although we had raised both broilers and laying hens of many breeds, we hadn’t found a good all-purpose bird among the chickens, although many lay claim to the title.  They either laid poorly (eating all the while) or were very short on meat when killing time came. 

As readers may know, chickens in America have been bred for two tracks:  meat (fast growing, often leg problems, too big to properly breed) and egg layers (broodiness bred out, goal of one egg per day bred in, hens ‘wear out’ quickly, especially if pushed to lay with extra light.)  The standard way of raising for us had been get chicks from a hatchery, raise to eating/laying size, replace with a new set as needed.  This is not a self-sustaining plan.  So, after extensive research, we chose the Midget White Turkey (MWT) and began our personal experience with this breed.

MWTs have several huge advantages for the homesteading prepper:  (1) they’re smaller, eat less, need smaller housing and can do some foraging for themselves, (2) they love human beings and are easy to handle, (3) they are good setters and mothers, and (4) they taste wonderful.  The meat is close grained and takes like real turkey.  Every bite, from the long, oval breast to the broth from the bones smells and tastes like an old-fashioned turkey dinner.  Finally, (4) they are easier to kill and clean than bigger birds, and in a scenario where food has to be eaten because of lack of electricity or refrigeration, a MWT can be polished off in a meal or two, depending on the size of the group.

I say ‘we’, because two homesteads are raising the MWT right now so as to have a larger gene pool.  SW Farm used electricity in the shed this past winter and raised the birds, initially, on wire.  NW Farm got young birds from SW Farm and raised them in a well-insulated shed on wood and on the ground.  So we got to see how different methods worked.

The turkey lore warns of grave problems with disease if turkeys are raised on the ground, and this may be so for young birds or other breeds.  SW Farm found that the turkeys didn’t like being on wire and their claws became so long and curved they had trouble walking on a regular floor on the coop.  As soon as they were let out on the ground they ran to get dust baths, then began to graze.  The claws were worn down, as the Lord intended.  So both Farms moved to a ‘barnyard’ setting for the turkeys.  SW farm uses a moveable pen, with protective netting.  NW Farm uses a stationary yard, with netting, again, against hawks.  Both flocks have done well with no losses to disease.  SW Farm did find it’s easier and healthier to have a low screen made of furring strips covered with hardware cloth in the coop under the roosts.  There’s less walking in droppings and a quick cleanup by removing the screen, raking out, then replacing it.

Turkey are susceptible to coccidiosis, a bowel disease that makes their droppings look like chocolate pudding.  They do not ‘grow out’ of this like chickens do.  It can progress to blood loss and small, unthrifty or dead birds.  So we began the birds on commercial feed with Amprolium.  After the birds graduated to regular pellets we still had to treat for coccidiosis with liquid medicine added to their water.  Oddly, the stated cause for coccidiosis in turkeys is from the ground, previous birds, or their own feces.  In our case, the housing was new, the birds were on wire (droppings fell through and were promptly cleaned up) – there was very little contact, yet they got the disease.  The Merck vet Manual seems to imply it’s almost impossible to avoid.  With treatment and more space, they seemed to recover, and now there is only an occasional problem that I suspect is more from too much forage than disease.  Perhaps a reader is more expert and can respond to this idea.

Throw away all the turkey legends when dealing with MWTs.  Midgets are not stupid, won’t drown looking up at the rain, aren’t susceptible to diseases that ravage the commercial birds, such as blackhead, and do not have to be artificially inseminated.  When we initially ordered our birds we had one loss upon arrival and another due to an accident with the waterer.  All the others flourished.  They got wet as dishrags on rainy days, don’t mind walking on snow (and we had a lot of it) and seemed hardier than chickens in many ways.

The poults (baby turkeys) were ordered from Murray McMurray Hatchery and came as 3-day old birds on 4/21/2010.  As poultry go, they are expensive, and only straight run were available from any breeder.

They were brooded very simply, with a heat lamp and draft shield.  The first egg was laid on November 1st at SW Farm.  NW farm didn’t have the first egg until spring.  This is probably due to the fact that SW Farm has a light in a coop  with large windows and NW doesn’t. 

You’ll immediately notice that these turkeys mature much more quickly than chickens.  Not only do they get bigger faster, they display pecking order behavior and sex-linked behavior only a few weeks old.  Initially it was hard to tell which were the males and which the females from our straight-run order because the females would fluff out their feathers, fan their tails and display aggressively while finding their place in the flock.  A turkey fight is pretty impressive – the birds grab each other by a beak lock and fight until one is exhausted.  They can and will draw blood in the fight.  They also peck the head and beak of another bird and can damage the beak.  So beak clipping is necessary.  If you clip too deeply, be ready to cauterize with a hot knife.  We did not de-beak them as poults.  Females will fight this way as well as males.

As adults, females will still fight over the mating order, the nests and pecking order.  I found it necessary to re-clip the beaks of the more aggressive ones.  But toward humans, they are friendly, interested, and will allow themselves to be fed by hand and handled.  Keep in mind that birds discover things by pecking, and they’ll peck your clothes and skin.  Our turkeys were trained not to peck hands and even a nesting hen would only give a ‘warning peck’ to a human, that is, not really bite down hard.  A hard bite will leave a blood blister, and those claws are sharp.  So be warned and wear gloves yourself if you’re clipping beaks or some unwanted attention.  MWTs are very forgiving, though.  Where a chicken would run away for a week after a de-beaking, the next time the Farmer came in they were all gathering around.  

Under normal conditions, overall MWTs are less aggressive to humans than other fowl I’ve seen.  This is good, because a WMT male weights 13 – 18 lbs. dressed out, and the females 8 – 10 lbs.  So far there have been no aggressive attacks defending the hens as there were when we had a rooster, even when entering the pen during mating.

Turkey males will fight to the death, so once the birds were able to be out in the ambient temperatures. we chose one male and segregated the second.  In my flock, the chosen bird (called ‘Studley’) seemed like the best choice – he was big and healthy – that was almost making the fatal mistake among small turkey breeders of choosing the big birds and ruining the breed.  But ‘Thanksgiving’  (to remind everyone on the Farm of his destiny) wound up being the flock male because the females liked him better, he seemed to breed more easily, was more attentive and protective, and all around more like the classic MWT bird.  After observing both with a chance at the flock, Studley ‘flew into the freezer’.  He was very tasty, and wasn’t greatly missed. 

A turkey killing cone is highly recommended when killing time comes.  A bird that big flopping around makes a huge mess and can break wings.  They’re strong – don’t plan to hold one down.

We use the ‘brain stick’ method once the bird is immobilized in the cone.  Take the head of the bird in your left hand, and a small knife with the end honed into a sharp on both sides half-circle, in your right.  Insert the blade into the slit in the turkey’s upper beak, push the blade toward the palm of the hand holding the head, (think of a line from the blade through the eye and into the brain) and give a sharp twist.  (Obviously, you’re wearing gloves, although we’ve never seen a blade go through the skull.)  There should be one sharp cry and then the bird is dead.  Immediately cut the veins on either side of the neck and bleed out the bird.  There will then be the flapping and shaking, which is why the cone is so important.  Even then, you want to stand back, because a flopping head can spray blood all over the Farmer. The bird should be eviscerated, plucked and chilled as soon as it’s bled out. 

MWTs seem to have a high quality down.  We didn’t have the chance this year to test it out, but it might be worth cleaning and using the down.  Also, the biggest flight feathers of a turkey have been, and in places still are used to make quill pens. 

In the NW Farm flock, it took a couple of months to determine that some possible males were females.  This is because the Midgets seem to come in two types, those with rose colored feet and more reddish necks in the females, and those that are paler in the neck and have white feet.  Both sexes have a beginning snood.  There is no question, though, as the males get older, that the red necks and wattles, the snood, and blue heads are very distinctive in addition to the tail fanning and low spread of the wings.  MWT males are beautiful birds when displaying.

We soon learned that a ‘nesting house’ or area was necessary.  When the large white eggs with purple/brown speckles began to come, some birds became broody.  They would compete for nesting space, and the others would keep coming into the nest to see what was going on.  A nesting bird coming out for daily food and water was getting beat up. So we segregated the nesting birds with her young.

A nesting MWT hisses like a goose, fluffs up her feathers and tries to defend her eggs by pecking, but another bird would steal the eggs with a curling motion of her beak, or even sit on top of the nesting bird, crushing eggs.  Since SW Farm has limited space, I chose one female to lay on all the eggs.  Gestation is 28 days, and the first bird hatched Turkeys will lay eggs for several months, at least 6, but not all year.  The eggs are good to eat, a bit more viscous than hen’s eggs, and some people say a bit stronger.  They are excellent for baking and quickly incorporate air when beaten.  We had very tender meringues and high-rising quick breads with the extra eggs.

Extra eggs?  Yes.  SW Farm learned not to try to let a hen brood in the winter.  This past year temperature\s were regularly in the ‘teens and the eggs died in the cold in spite of everything I could do – two heat lamps, etc.  It’s sad to see a hen lose her whole clutch, or to open an overdue egg and find a fully formed poult frozen to death.

At NW Farm they there’s no electricity in the shed, so the birds did not start to lay until this spring.  This is a good idea, in my opinion.  Perhaps SW Farm’s birds were too pampered. If meat is needed in winter and the hens are laying, plan to incubate them yourself.  There are both electric and non-electric incubators – an ingenious one is available from the Amish at Lehman’s.

The standard lore is that turkeys will lay 110 – 115 eggs in 28/30 weeks, 7 – 8 months.  They are ‘eating size’ at 32 weeks and ready to lay.  We found that the turkeys were small for eating that early, and this is the main reason that MWTs are not commercially raised – they don’t grow fast enough.  But for the small farm, time is not that critical.

MWTs will eat out of your hand, so when we were ready to cull our extra male, we put him in a smaller cage and made a point of feeding him high carbohydrate snacks.  The lack of exercise makes the meat more tender, and the high carb diet put on some fat.  But MWTs will not pork up the way store birds do.

Setting hens are very attentive.  I even have to boot mine out of the nest to be sure she eats.  There will be one, large smelly poop a day, and it’s better done outside.  Food and water kept near the nest is a good idea, and a handful of rye grass from the garden or scraps will keep her in good health.  When the poults come, she’ll eat and drink from their food source, although I keep adult food available for her.  So there has to be enough for all, and the water fount has to be appropriate for chicks. 

MWTs don’t like change.  It takes a long time for them to adjust to a new coop or a change in their old one and to find nests.  When they come from the hatchery they take longer to find food and water than chickens – this is extremely important to know.  Like all chicks, they are susceptible to drowning in a small amount of water, so there should be a special waterer), or marbles put in the fount so the water can be drunk but not swum in.  When raised by another bird, though, this doesn’t seem to be a problem.  Our poults found the food and water with no problem, were kept warm, dried after coming out of the egg, gently gathered under the hen’s feathers when cool…this is the upside of having birds raise their own.

Their long necks mean it is easy for them to scatter food, so SW Farm found that a deep container, like a window box, filled only to 2 or 3 inches, made a good feeder.  NW Farm fed the birds daily in a large pan to conserve the grain – the birds were only given enough for each feeding.  A plain bucket works for water.  They drink a lot, so be prepared for daily fillings.  MWTs are not as omnivorous as chickens, either.  They like the occasional bread crust but prefer something green, and will graze like wild turkeys, whereas our chickens will eat anything that doesn’t eat them first.  MWTs can eat a grain of corn whole, useful info for those who grow their own feed.  They swallow, rather than peck at the food.  In winter I used some scratch feed, but they preferred the whole rye grains rather than the cracked corn.  (I personally wonder about that cracked corn – my birds don’t like it the way they used to and I think it’s because of the poor quality and genetic alteration.  I’m planning to start growing some feed this year.)

MWTs make sounds that have meanings.  The male, of course, has the traditional ‘gobble’.  Females will whistle to find each other to point out food, or when they see Their Farmer.  They make a different sound when about to lay an egg or talking to their eggs and chicks that sounds like ‘buddle up’.  This sound, with raised back feathers, means an egg is on the way.  If you’re collecting to incubate, wait and gather the fresh egg as soon as it is dry.  Don’t wash the eggs, because this protective coating is part of God’s plan to keep the egg safe from bacteria. 

There is also a sound almost like the bark of a small dog MWTs make when agitated or really need something.  There is a little murmuring sound at mating, or when they’re choosing a mate, or when the male is trying to talk a female into mating.  Males mount the females, who present themselves by settling on the ground, putting their feet on the females’ outspread wings.  This is another reason not to have too big a male – if you’re raising them on wire, they can get hurt. We had some cases of torn feet.  A receptive female will raise her tail, and a male doing his job will be working at this all day.

Once the eggs are laid, they should be candled at intervals and the unfertilized eggs discarded.  Don’t wash or refrigerate the eggs.  I’m told eggs will keep at room temperatures for up to 20 days, but a clutch can be assembled in less time than that.  Also, it seems to be true that a hen remains fertile for about a week on the nest, even away from the male if she lays additional eggs.  Mark the date the egg was laid with an indelible marker, candle at least twice during the incubation period and mark the egg.  Remove eggs that don’t hatch by 10 days after that date.  A bad egg will actually explode with a sound like a small caliber pistol, and they smell horrible.  I found that a chart (many available on line) showing the development of the bird inside the egg helped in learning to candle eggs. 

Cooking the MWT is a little different than the store bird.  First, store birds are injected with water (and sometimes flavored solutions that contain salt), and are fattier.  Homegrown Midgets have a finer grain of meat and smaller breasts.  The whole bird, plucked, is a bit more oval than the standard store turkey.  They can be dry plucked, but it’s pretty hard work, and should be chilled for 24 hours to allow rigor mortis to pass off for more tender eating.

Once the bird is ready to cook, slip your hand between the breast meat and skin, and place pats of butter there and on top of the drumstick.  This will baste the bird from within.  The butter can be seasoned, if you like.  We found cooking them in a covered roaster was best, then removing the lid for browning.  This takes about half the usual cooking time.  In general I think fresh cooks faster than store-bought.  The ‘dark’ meat will be darker than on a commercial bird and folks who like it raved about the MWT.  (I’m not a big dark meat lover, so I think this is a fair assessment.)  It will be tougher if the birds have had more exercise.  Remember, the store birds are raised in crowded conditions for meat, only, grown just until they are saleable, but your birds will be raised in barnyard conditions.  For a special meal, choose a bird, put it into a smaller pen for a couple of weeks, and feed it the high carbohydrate diet for best eating.  This is what the old-timers used to do with chickens.

Leftover MWT makes excellent soup, croquettes, pot pie, etc.  Unlike the store bird, this meat is good and doesn’t need a sales pitch to get eaten.  We foresee a time when any meat will be welcome, but for the small farm, the Midget White seems to be a very good choice. 



Knowing Your Personality Strengths and Weaknesses, by C.F.

In nature, optimizing for one attribute generally means weakening one’s abilities in another. For example, with vehicles, optimizing for speed and maneuverability in tight turns generally means reducing carrying capacity, road clearance and tolerance for rough dirt roads. A sports car is clearly different from a 4×4 pickup truck. Both are optimized for different purposes.

The same is true for the human mind. Optimizing one’s strengths for real-time situations (e.g., physical combat) is very different from optimizing for long-range pursuits that require extended periods of uninterrupted concentration (e.g., theoretical physics).

In a survival situation, it can be crucial to know one’s best strengths and likely weaknesses, both for oneself and for others in the retreat group. Also, it can be very helpful to be able to quickly size up the likely strengths and weaknesses of others that you may meet in difficult times. There is a helpful guide for this in the form of the Myers-Briggs type indicator, which is useful in knowing what sorts of personality “tools” you have for dealing with people, objects, and ideas. Some of us like crowds, while others prefer the wide-open spaces; some of us are handy with tools and crafts, while others are happiest reading books, daydreaming, or working on the computer; some of us make friends easily and entertain frequently, while others are close friends with only a few people; some of us make decisions slowly, with many revisions, while others decide quickly and rarely change their mind, once settled. All of these are ways of approaching the world, each with their own advantages and disadvantages, just like the differences between the 4×4 pickup truck and the sports car.

The Myers-Briggs type indicator is a way of zeroing in on these personality differences, and it focuses on the following characteristics:

Introvert/Extrovert: introverts are one-quarter of the population, while extroverts are three-quarters of the population. Introverts prefer time alone and become tired from excessive contact with large numbers of people, while extroverts gain energy from large crowds and lose energy from excessive solitude.

Sensing/Intuitive: sensing types are three-quarters of the population, while intuitives are one-quarter of the population. Sensing types are well-grounded in the day-to-day world, operate with common sense, and are generally focused in the present moment. Intuitive types are focused almost anywhere but the present moment, and tend to focus more on past events and possible future events.

Thinking/Feeling: thinking types are one-half of the population, and feeling types are the other half. Thinking types focus on facts, while feeling types focus on values.

Perceiving/Judging: perceiving types are one-half of the population, while judging types are the other half. Perceiving types are slow to come to a decision, and generally like to continue gathering information. Once they’ve made a decision, they’re often uncomfortable with their choice and may try to second-guess the result. Judging types are quick to come to decisions, feel uncomfortable before making their choice, and generally feel comfortable with their decision.

Each of these personality characteristics fall along a continuum, e.g., from extremely introverted to moderately introverted, to moderately extroverted, to extremely extroverted. However, most people end up on one side or the other, since these are opposite characteristics. Since there are four sets of opposites, there are 16 different Myers-Briggs types. This can be rather complicated, and so as a useful shorthand, it is helpful to know that the Myers-Briggs types can be divided into the following four groups:

  • SP: sensing-perceivers, these are people who are action-oriented, very much in the moment, adapt quickly to emergencies, tolerate (and sometimes create) chaotic environments, but who often tend not to plan ahead or strategize for the long term. SPs are about 38% of the population.
  • SJ: sensing-judging, these are people who are well-organized, systematic, responsible, and orderly, guardians of traditions and customs, but not usually well-adapted to chaotic or highly spontaneous events. SJ’s are about 38% of the population.
  • NF: intuitive-feeling, these are the actors, storytellers, poets, religious leaders, singers, entertainers, charismatic personalities, and counselors. NF’s work primarily with feelings and sometimes have an aversion to facts. NF’s are about 12% of the population.
  • NT: intuitive-thinking, these are the scientists and engineers, inventors, leaders in technical industrial pursuits, philosophers, mathematicians, and architects. NTs work primarily with facts and sometimes have an aversion to feelings. NTs are about 12% of the population.

Looking at the preceding list, you can see that each type definitely has its strengths and weaknesses. One would not send an NT out to do a hostage negotiation, for example, because they would be likely to precipitate an emotional blow-up. Likewise, an NF would not be one’s first choice for bronc-busting, police officer, or machinist, because they would be likely to accidentally injure or kill themselves or someone else. An SP would likely do a quick and haphazard job of long-range strategic planning and inventory management, leaving a lot of omissions. When seeking an entertainer to help liven up a group and boost morale, an SJ likely would not be one’s first choice.

Given that one has inherent strengths and weaknesses from these characteristics, what are some ways to use one’s strengths to advantage and compensate for the weaknesses? Here are some suggestions that may be useful:

For SPs it can be very advantageous to partner with an SJ or NT for long-term strategic planning and organization. For example, an SJ will be much more comfortable in setting up and organizing supplies and long-term food storage, ensuring that supplies are ample, remain useable, and are cycled through in sequence. An NT with some knowledge of electrical engineering can design a solar power system with adequate batteries, safety features, sufficient power for necessary equipment, potential for expansion for future needs, backup equipment, and safe and adequate cabling. An SP with the same knowledge would be more likely to cobble together an “ad hoc” system that might not fully meet present needs, safety requirements, or potential for future expansion.

An NF can help to bring harmony and cohesion to a group that might otherwise not connect with one another. Most religious leaders (pastors, preachers) as well as counselors are NFs. As negotiators, an NF can provide a finely-tuned sensibility and real-time ability to deal with difficult personalities and situations. As entertainers, NFs can help to boost the morale of a group during difficult times, providing humor, uplifting spirits, and helping to reconnect people with one another.

Each Myers-Briggs family group has its dark side, as well. An SP gone bad can be a bully, a slothful lout, or a gang member. NTs can be a criminal mastermind, the proverbial mad scientist, or creators of intellectual traps for the unwary, while NF’s can create massive dissension and malice within a group, even inciting people to murder. SJs can betray the very traditions and standards they claim to uphold, thereby creating chaos.

On the positive side, SPs at their best are courageous explorers in all facets of the physical world, extending the possible range of human beings from the deepest oceans to the highest mountains and beyond, exploring new facets of sport and physical endurance, expanding the physical limits of human beings in the universe.

Likewise, NTs at their best are expanding humanity’s knowledge and mastery of the deepest mysteries of the physical universe, advancing science and technology for the benefit of all humanity and creating new visions in mathematics and philosophy.

SJs at their best are creators and promoters of systems of organization and customs and traditions that enable everyone to work together with greatest harmony and efficiency. SJs at their best also ensure the continuity of human culture and traditions, carrying the best traditions of the past forward to the future.

NFs at their best are explorers of the true meaning of human values and human existence in the universe, explorers in the realm of human personality and the deepest levels of human communication both with other humans and with the universe at large.

In an ideal world, each of us would only face problems that are suited to our own nature. However, the universe does not respect our limitations, and we often face situations that we are ill-equipped to handle. This will likely be even more frequent during SHTF situations. How can knowledge of one’s own mental strengths and weaknesses be helpful during such times? First, one can use this knowledge to prepare in advance for areas of likely problems. If possible, it is helpful to partner with others who have complementary strengths. For example, SJs, who are great at organizing in advance of events but less handy in the actual chaos of a true emergency, may find it very helpful to partner with some SPs. Likewise, the SPs can benefit from the systematic preparedness of SJs.

Another way to use this knowledge is to make proper allowances for one’s areas of weakness. For intuitive (N) types, operating in the physical world can be a challenge. However, it can be done, and even very successfully. It just takes longer, and it requires more effort. Also, one needs to respect one’s limitations and have an adequate regard for physical safety.

Thinking types, especially NTs, run the very real risk of offending the wrong person at the wrong time. This can be very dangerous in SHTF situations. Avoiding people and living as a hermit is not always practical or possible. But even introverted NTs can develop some social skills in small-scale, safer social environments. Again, patience and persistence are necessary.

Even though most of us tend to associate with others of a like kind, there are many valuable synergies in working together. While NTs may design a new fighter plane, it is likely an SP who is the test pilot. Likewise, while it is generally SPs who actually build the plane, it will be SJs who organize the myriad details necessary to successfully construct and test the aircraft.

There can be many potential conflicts and sources of disharmony when groups of people work together on a project. Often people in the thick of things cannot truly perceive their shared interests or successfully work out solutions to conflicts as they arise. NFs can often be very helpful in this area, finding workable solutions that are palatable to all parties involved and also helping people to understand one another. Sometimes apparent conflicts arise from simple misunderstandings that grow into larger problems. NFs can be invaluable in maintaining the harmony and cohesiveness of a group, helping people to work together even in very difficult circumstances.

If you are interested in more information on the Myers-Briggs types, one helpful resource is the book Please Understand Me: Character and Temperament Types by David Keirsey and Marilyn Bates.

Hopefully some of the information in this article has helped to inform your awareness of yourself and those around you, creating a better understanding of your own strengths and weaknesses, as well as those of your family, friends, and co-workers. Such knowledge can be invaluable in survival situations.



Letter Re: Peak Oil and the Real Value of the Dollar

Dear Jim,  
For the last 70 years, the dollar’s value has evffectively been pegged to oil. We can thank FDR for that, since he removed Gold from backing the dollar. I suppose it worked out okay, but now we have a problem. The oil is running out. You’ve seen it at the gas stations, and the price of Brent crude is $124 per barrel, and domestic USA crude is $112 per barrel. The USA only produces 5.5 million barrels per day (mbpd). The balance of the 19 mbpd is imported, mostly from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, and Nigeria (not Saudi Arabia or North Africa. Those go to Europe and China). Mexico is running out of oil. Venezuela is running out of oil but wants to sell it exclusively to China. Canada sells oil to the USA under a NAFTA agreement (which is why the USA can’t do without NAFTA). And Nigeria just had another fraud election which has resulted in renewed rebellion so expect supplies to be shaky there. Most of what Nigeria sells will probably end up replacing what is lost in North Africa and the Middle East going to Europe and China.  

This means the USA will have to conserve another 20% of its oil demand, dropping from 19 mbpd to around 15 mpbd. Cue economic contraction and further jobs lost, more wage erosion (lower wages and no raises and no benefits). However you feel about Socialism, it is not fun working in the USA today. Some regulation will have to come about or revolution pressures will increase, and its much easier for a semi-Democracy like the USA to just mandate benefit requirements for employers than suffer the consequences of an increased turnover rate in leadership positions (vote the bums out).  

Still, this is the unpleasant bit, not only are we undergoing economic contraction but we also are seeing foreign holdings of T-bills dumped in favor of other currencies, and oil is starting to trade in Yuan, Euros, and other currencies because they’re stronger than the Dollar. A tipping point is highly probable, leading to a panic and the dollar will drop like a stone. How low can it go?  

Think Weimar? No, probably not. The USA would impose trade tariffs before that, messing up FOREX markets completely and causing the common man to shrug, preventing panic as far as he’s concerned. Irritation over the cost of imported goods will be interesting though. There’s likely to see a huge surge in demand for domestic copies of replacement parts for imported goods (cars, electronics, everything made in China, Japan, EU nations) because Tariffs change manufacturing and ends globalism as far as we’re concerned.  

Lest ye worry that it would incite war, China is already selling to everyone else. They know as they dump our bonds that they’ve decided they can accept the loss. It won’t be a surprise as they de-couple from the USA economy while we stew like Brazil in the 1970s. The big difference between us and Brazil is the USA can readily adapt to manufacturing and doing so does not require a 5 year lead time for higher education. Assembly line jobs can be taught in hours or days. And we’re going to need full employment to accomplish these things, to keep our stuff working. Even the minimal pioneering survival stuff like cast iron cookware and plates and silverware and water heaters and all sorts of things which are best mass-produced.  

The rest of the world can easily block out the “information economy” nonsense since so much of that is being done in India and elsewhere anyway. What they can’t ban is USA’s food exports, largely because the USA feeds a third of the world’s population. They can’t adjust immediately without invoking massive civil war over starvation. So they’ll pay to keep things under control while they frantically plow their fields, plant their crops, and pay their farmers enough to care. In the years it will take to get their own farming going, the hard currency from USA’s agricultural exports (rice, wheat, corn, soybeans) will pay for the critical imports and the more important domestic manufacturing plants, with all the implied jobs. And its going to be a lots of jobs. Everything we use that’s imported now will need to be made here in the USA. The USA has 300 million residents. That’s plenty of demand, in housewares alone. Exporting anything else is unnecessary, and the insistence that the USA “must export to survive” is nonsense. Beyond agriculture we don’t need to.  

That gets back to the original issue: how much is the dollar really worth? Approximately 20% of its value in 2006, the peak value of the dollar before the crash started hurting everything, including other currencies. It will probably drop below that at some point, but fluctuations in the commodities market will stabilize it again. The big industrial agriculture organizations farming all that wheat and rice and soy demand a certain amount of return on investment, and they’ll want it in hard currency. Expect the US government to tax those exports, which the foreign governments will pay because they literally can’t do without the food or stop being governments and start being in the middle of revolutions. They have to pay.  

It is worth pointing out that the USA’s other big export is arms. That’s likely to be counter-tariffed so competing nations (Britain, France, China) can sell arms for less. All those arms manufacturing jobs in the USA will probably evaporate, but the machinist and assembly line workers will find work making scooter engines and water pumps and Blue-ray players. Same skills, different products, and we actually need them.  

I believe that Trade Tariffs are just as inevitable as the Dollar Crash. They are the only practical way out of this disaster. Believe it. Even if you disagree its going to be what the politicians in the USA will grab for. The Cult of America can’t survive otherwise and insulation is just a step short of cultural marginalization (blame that other guy) and drinking the Kool Aid (implosion, probably at the Federal level freeing the States to govern themselves, something Kalifornia is already doing with its responsibilities and revenues dumped onto Counties). Assuming we survive those particular steps, rebuilding is possible. Keep a handy copy of the Constitution in your safe, and remember that State-Level government is far more accessible.  

[Consider life at 20% of] 2006’s Dollar value. No more imports. Export agriculture only. Bootstrapping our manufacturing post cheap-oil. Bicycle to work. That’s our future.   Best, – InyoKern



Two Letters Re: Using Your Smart Phone as a Survival Phone

James;
When the cell phone network is down, telephones expend energy constantly searching for a connection. This can increase your battery drain. If you are in a situation where you know the network is not functioning, I recommend you set your smart phone to “Airplane Mode”. This disables all radio communication functions of your phone and allows it to act as a hand held computer thus no longer wasting power trying to contact a network that is not functioning. – Mike in Kentucky

 

Dear Jim:
Being a techie/having worked in a cell store, I enjoyed Kelly’s article. What I would like to add in the plethora of apps presented is a (usually) free PDF viewer. Some have searchable features, but the survival-based resources you can find in PDFs is astounding. All the Army Field Manuals, tips on canning, old household encyclopedias, gardening advice, etc.

And do no disregard phones without a micro SD card. It is quite easy to transfer files to a smart phone without one. If you have a smaller internal memory, you might have to do with less games and music and more stuff that saves your bacon! – Jim S.



Letter Re: Why Store Wheat?

Mr. Rawles:
I’ve been reading SurvivalBlog exhaustively for several days, and I don’t understand why people store wheat as part of a long term food storage plan. Since yeast is not a long term storable commodity, it will not be available to make bread.  That means that the buckets of stored wheat can be used only for sprouts or as a cereal dish, which is rather unpalatable.  Our food storage plan is centered on rice, pasta, and beans instead of wheat.  Am I missing something? Why store hard wheat?   Thanks for your help,  Michael 

JWR Replies: Yeast can be stored for up to four years. By the time that runs out, I predict that there will have been a resurgence in popularity in sourdough “start”, which can be divided and passed around from family to family.  (Some sourdough yeast strains have been in continuous circulation for more than a century.)