Economics and Investing:

Reader Jay B. wrote to mention this: IMF doubles lending capacity. Jay’s comment: “Didn’t you hear the printing presses speed up? You didn’t? Well, I will give you a hint, and it sounded like a sonic boom.”

Coin Dealers Squeezed By New Ordinances. JWR’s Comment: To expect a coin dealer to hold merchandise for 15 to 30 days in a volatile precious metals market is absurd. No doubt their bid prices will be decreased, to cover the additional risk.

Doug Casey: Expect Extreme Volatility a the Titanic Forces of Inflation and Deflation Fight Each Other

The big swindle and a fog of debt – hiding the unemployed in the higher education bubble and three years of economic recovery equates to 11.5 million more Americans on food stamps.

Items from The Economatrix:

The Birth Of Barter: How One Greek Town Dropped the Euro and Moved On

IMF Tells US to Sort Out Debt, Quickly

Baseball Attendance Provides a Good Economic Indicator

Is The Economic Recovery Sustainable?

Odds ‘n Sods:

A reminder that I will be a guest speaker (via teleconference) at the Get Prepared Expo, in Springfield, Missouri on April 28 & 29, 2012. The expo is being organized by USAPrepares.com. It will be held at the Ozarks Empire Fairgrounds.

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A reader from Florida wrote to ask me about the prospects for paying off the National Debt. The short answer: It is mathematically impossible, unless the purchasing power of the US dollar is destroyed through mass inflation. (It worked for the Weimar Republic…)

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My recent interview on the Alex Jones show is now available on YouTube: Living in The Age of Deception and Betrayal. Update (August, 2018): The entire library of Infowars shows has been deleted by YouTube in part of a coordinated campaign of censorship against conservative voices. This is evidence that we truly are living in the age of deception and betrayal!

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Dr. Mike in Missouri wrote to mention that the digital edition of A Community Guide to Environmental Health is now available.

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Cheryl N. sent this: The Fallacy of Bugging Out:  Are You Prepared to be a Refugee?

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes…" – Napoleon Bonaparte

Notes from JWR:

Please pray daily, fervently for the fledgling nation of South Sudan. I was alarmed to read yesterday that war has now been declared by Sudan. After seeing how the BHO administration has aligned itself with the Muslim Brotherhood in several recent civil conflicts in North Africa and the Middle East, I expect that South Sudan can’t expect anything more than just disingenuous lip service from the U.S. government. Please pray and do anything you can to help the South Sudanese to survive. Please also pray for our President, that he would become convicted to substantively help South Sudan.

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Today we present two more entries for Round 40 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and E.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 40 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Prepping the Space Between Your Ears, by Tona

I don’t recall a time in my life when I wasn’t doing at least some planning for “worst case” situations.  That may have come from growing up in an earthquake prone part of the country, and during the cold war when we drilled for nuclear attacks during the school day.  My mother, who was a single parent through much of my life, also modeled planning for “hard times” by storing food, following world and local trends closely, and being careful with money.  I became serious and more intentional in prepping following Katrina, when it confirmed my suspicion that we had better be prepared to take care of ourselves in a disaster, and after reading James Howard Kunstler’s The Long Emergency,  and watching his predictions come true.  My spouse and children have endured my lectures, emails, nagging and copies of relevant articles with patience, and are also on board with their own preparations.

By training and background I am a clinical psychologist, with specialty training in health psychology, helping people manage the emotional impact associated with illness, injury and death.  In addition, I am active in disaster preparedness and disaster mental health, serving locally and internationally as a disaster responder.   I have truly seen situations in which it is TEOTWAWKI for those involved, where home, family, job, government services have all been lost.  And through my years in practice, as well as my work in disaster planning, it is clear that the most important preparation is not “beans, band-aids, and bullets” (although those are important) but mental preparedness and psychological flexibility.   I want to share some of the factors which come into play in big abnormal events such as natural disasters or terrorist events, because I believe we can take lessons learned from these into situations where it all comes apart, and we are left to stand and survive if we can.  In this essay, I’d also like to help you develop some simple skills to manage your own emotional responses and to help your family and friends.

It may surprise some to know that research shows that the most common long-term response to the trauma of a major disaster is not Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), but resiliency and growth.  People are pretty good at overcoming bad things without any help from professional counselors or other mental health types.  That’s not to say that people aren’t affected by losing their homes, family members and security.  They are.  Most people show a range of symptoms in the immediate aftermath of a disaster, but tend to recover in about three months.   Some of the responses we should be prepared for are discussed in the next section. Some people will have some significant longer terms psychological issues following a disaster, but hopefully, those people will be in the minority. 

Common Short Terms Responses to Disaster and Loss:

Big events have an impact on body, mind, and spirit.  Once the initial phase of a disaster has passed, doctors begin to see many more patients showing up with MUPS (medically unexplained physical symptoms).  When we human beings experience a traumatic event, it releases a cascade of stress hormones and other chemicals in our bodies.  Sometimes, the body reacts as though the threat is ongoing and the condition can become chronic.  When the body is out of balance, we often begin to experience stomach aches, headaches, fatigue, dizziness, trouble sleeping, pain, and changes in appetite.  The distress experienced by someone who has those symptoms is real.  The pain is real.  It’s a real response to a real physiological change in the body.  But…it is not related to a disease, infection, or injury, but to the body’s chronic stress response.

We also commonly experience cognitive or thinking changes such as trouble making decisions, difficulty with remembering things, trouble concentrating, and re-occurring thoughts about what has happened and what we’ve witnessed.  And, our behaviors and emotions can change due to the stress we’ve undergone, making us more likely to be irritable or aggressive, cry more often, withdraw from our loved ones, feel terribly guilty or depressed, feel panic, engage in more risky behaviors, or “self medicate” with drugs or alcohol. 

We may experience a change in our relationship with God, becoming angry over what has happened, losing interest in prayer or avoiding worship settings and rituals, which formerly were very important to our spiritual lives.  The opposite may also happen, where there may be a renewal in faith life following a terrible loss.

Children and teens are vulnerable to all of the above as well.  In addition, children may regress in their development, acting much younger than their age.  They may begin to wet the bed or play like a younger child, and have trouble being able to separate from their parents or loved ones.  Nightmares are common.  In young children, you may see repetitive and obsessive play, which re-enacts the event(s) they have experienced.  This is the way a young child attempts to make sense of the event and regain some sense of control. 

Interestingly, the elderly can often do better under such duress than others, possibly due to their life experiences which have provided some “stress inoculation”.  Seniors can provide wisdom from their perspectives as well as information from their life experiences.  On the other hand, seniors who have some dementia may become very agitated and confused due to being away from familiar settings and routines.

Individuals with pre-existing mental health issues such as anxiety, depression or psychosis may, in the short term, temporarily get better.  It was reported that, following September 11th, many patients in psychiatric wards temporarily “cleared” their psychosis and the rates of suicide declined.  However, without the access to appropriate medication, patients with significant psychological disorders will need care and support.   Individuals with mental disabilities such as developmental delays or head injuries may experience confusion, fear, and disorientation. 

Many people following a major disaster will have lost loved ones, but be unable to access the services and rituals which would typically help them through the grieving process.  For example, mortuary services and funerals may not be possible in the events of mass casualties, civil breakdown, or pandemic diseases.  Community support may be limited because so many have experienced deaths in their own families and are unable to reach out and help others.  This may lead to complicated bereavement and depression.

When TSHTF How Can You Help Yourself?:

We cannot avoid bad things happening, but we can prepare ourselves psychologically so that we can more effectively use the tools, food, skills and other resources we’ve gathered.  People who do best when their worlds fall apart tend to have some specific factors helpful to their ability to survive and thrive:

They have a support system of family and friends, who can share in the struggle

Human beings are innately social creatures.  We are designed to live in community with others.  The myth of the lone wolf, living off the land all by himself, is just that…a myth.  Following disastrous events, people who have community support are more likely to survive.   Groups are more effective than individuals in identifying resources, sharing work, and in defense against outside forces.

They have spiritual practices which help them to find meaning and comfort even in dark times.

The old saying goes that “there are no atheists in foxholes”.  It may be true that you can suddenly discover your Maker in tough times.  However, preparing for tough times is enhanced when your prayer, study, worship, and charitable practices are a core part of who you already are. 

They have an innate style, or learned a psychological style of thinking which helps them remain more calm, more optimistic about their future, and more realistic about the threats to themselves and their loved ones, neither living in fear nor in denial. They tend to have a mind-set of assuming they have control over their lives and decisions vs being at the mercy of others’ control.

We’ve all known people who were quick to panic, tended to see the worst possible outcomes, magnify the impact, fail to see the good portions of any event.  Those folks generally suck all the energy out of their companions, and are not useful when the SHTF.  I’m assuming all those on forums such as this want to be useful and helpful and not a drain on resources during emergencies.  This involves practicing mental exercises in much the same way you practice marksmanship, canning, or gardening.

Here are some tools which may help you become more flexible and resilient in your approach if life takes a terrible turn:

Learn to recognize when you are making “thinking errors” such as magnifying, assuming, having a negative bias, or worrying unnecessarily.

    1. Magnifying turns a problem into a disaster.  For example, you may drop a case of canning jars and break them.  This is a problem.  It may create a resource limit.  Canning jars may be hard or impossible to get.  HOWEVER, it does not qualify as an End Of The World event.  Your family will not starve because of this one thing.  One way to counter Magnifying is to ask yourself “what is truly the worst case scenario with this event?” and then counter that thought with “and what can I do if that happens?”  In nearly every event, there will be some way to mitigate.
    2. Assuming creates catastrophes when there may not be one in the immediate future.  For example, I might assume that because Mrs. Smith doesn’t say “hello” to me she doesn’t like me.  I may further decide that if she doesn’t like me, she might wish me harm.  Because I assume she wishes me harm, I avoid her…and so on.  If I ask myself whether my assumption might be in error, and whether there might be another reason for Mrs. Smith’s behavior, I can flex my thinking to include the possibility that 1) Mrs. Smith didn’t hear me say “hello”, 2)that she might be distressed about something completely unrelated to me, 3) that she didn’t see me etc.  Those possibilities allow me to more realistically assess the whole situation and also provide me with a chance to practice more flexible thinking.
    3. A negative bias causes us to fail to see the possible positive outcome to a situation or decision, thereby narrowing options.  Listing pros and cons and forcing the numbers to be equal can be a good exercise in learning how to counter your bias.  The worst case of “negative bias” often happens in suicide.  It is tragic to see someone commit suicide because they truly thought there was no possible way they could manage something like losing a job, or breaking up with a girlfriend.  Suicides like that tend to happen because the person is in so much distress they are unable to imagine any outcome except the worst.  They cannot see anything but the negative and this leads to a deadly despair, due primarily to them not being able to identify any positive outcomes.
    4. There are plenty of reasons to worry in our world.  That’s why we try to prepare ourselves for some bad eventualities.  Preparing is different from worrying.  I tell my patients to watch out for “what if…” thoughts.  Sometimes “what if” thoughts can be helpful, such as when we try to plan for the “what if” the JIT delivery system doesn’t work.  But, if you find yourself feeling in a tizzy and uptight all the time, “what if” may be a marker for an anxious thought…e.g. “what if we can’t get food because the trucks are not running, and then what if the garden fails and then what if there’s a big EMP, and what if the nuclear material from Fukushima washes up the river from here and creates mutant zombies and we don’t have enough ammo….” and…well you get the picture.  Sometimes we need to set limits on those “what if” thoughts, so that we can be calm and emotionally more healthy when some of the “what if” stuff happens.  A great tool is “thought stopping”.  If you find you have the same negative or scary thought over and over, it helps to literally say “stop!”, find something to distract, or even snap a rubber band on your wrist.

Cultivate an “outside of the box” thinking style by asking “and what else could we do?” over and over, and using brainstorming techniques.  In brainstorming, nothing is off the table initially.  There are no stupid ideas.  This allows interesting and creative solutions to pop up.

Learn some ways to self-calm so that the thinking part of your brain is able to work. When we become too scared, the lower sections of our brains take over.  Those are the ones useful for “flight or fight”. However, when those parts of our brain are too activated, the thinking/planning/judgment part of our brain isn’t able to work.

    1. Learning simple breathing techniques allows us to be more centered so that we can figure things out better.  An example is “bubble breathing”.  In this technique, you pretend that you are blowing the biggest bubble you can with soapy water and a wand.  In order not to break the bubble, you breathe in softly through your nose, and breathe out very softly through your mouth.  This induces a relaxation response.
    2. Finding a calming thought and repeating it in our heads, or out loud, can help.
    3. Calming spiritual rituals such as reciting Bible verses or the Psalms uses our brains and our bodies and both distracts and calms.  For Catholics, meditating on the prayers of the rosary occupies mind, body and spirit in ways that allow for relaxation.
    4. Physical activity works for many, as does yoga

When TSHTF  How Can You Help Others?

What makes a good helper?

  1. Open communication, trust, empathy, honesty
  2. Recognizing that not all problems can be solved and not all people want to be helped
  3. Recognizing that the helper must set limits of time and energy, and values.  Helping does not mean that you destroy yourself trying to help another

In The First 24-72 Hours
In the first two to three days following a disaster or other large negative event, the focus needs to be on basic needs.  You can help by:

  1. Doing a self “check in” to make sure you have the ability to help someone else.
  2. Listening without trying to “fix “ the problem
  3. Making sure the person has access to food, water, shelter and some measure of safety.
  4. Helping the person locate other family members.
  5. Helping the person identify resources.
  6. Letting them know they are not alone in their reactions
  7. Answer questions honestly and simply

In An Ongoing Disaster, In addition to the foregoing

  1. Try to help them establish a return to some sort of routine, even if it is simply trying to eat at the same time each day
  2. Provide a quiet place, if possible, to reduce noise and other stimulation
  3. Help the person establish small and manageable goals
  4. Help the person to focus on “here and now”, and shorter term future vs long term future issues
  5. Request information about positive things in the person’s life: (“What do you do, on a day-to-day or weekly basis that you enjoy and which helps you feel less distressed?”)
  6. Teach them some ways to manage their bodies and their thoughts: A.) Deep breathing for relaxation and calming. B.) Thought stopping and thought replacement

If you feel that a person you are trying to help is dangerous to themselves e.g. suicidal, dangerous to others e.g. homicidal, or is suffering from a major mental illness e.g. bipolar disorder or schizophrenia DO NOT ATTEMPT TO HANDLE THIS ON YOUR OWN.  THIS NEEDS HELP FROM OTHERS.  IF THERE IS NOT A MENTAL HEALTH PROVIDER AVAILABLE, GET HELP FROM FAMILY, FRIENDS AND COMMUNITY TO ASSIST THIS PERSON SAFELY.

Bottom line…human beings are remarkably resilient survivors.  You can do some mental prepping so that your chances of remaining emotionally healthy, and being a helping resource are increased. 

Letter Re: An Expat’s View of Overseas Relocation and Expatriation

Jim:
Periodically I see posts or news articles about USA citizens renouncing their citizenship and moving abroad to greener pastures for tax and other reasons.

I have lived and traveled outside the USA for some time now due to my current job.  Every year I have to fill out all the forms stating the bank accounts (and now assets) that I have outside the USA and they are indeed a real pain to fill out and it is a rather onerous process to gather all the information that I need to provide.  Not only do I have to fill out all these forms but the USA also requires that I pay taxes on my worldwide income regardless of where I earn it.

The filing regulations, the tax on worldwide income, etc. it can all be very frustrating but let’s stop and look at the alternative; would I really want to give away my USA citizenship?  Where would I permanently relocate to, perhaps Europe?  They have higher taxes and even greater regulations than the USA (see current postings about gun regulations in the UK) and they are in a real economic mess.  How about the Middle East?  I have lived there already and would have no desire to relocate there permanently.  What about Asia – definitely not China nor other countries that I would consider are, or will be overshadowed by China. How about Africa or South America? There are advocates for living in South America but what guarantees do you really have as a foreigner that in a time of global adversity that your “rights” would be upheld and you would continue to be welcome? It’s hard enough moving from one state to another in the USA and assimilating into a community let alone moving into a different country with another language, cultural and norms where you are clearly an outsider.

That brings me back to the USA, a country founded on principles that I believe in and embrace.  Is it broken today? Perhaps.  Can it be fixed – make your own determination.  One thing is for sure, in the USA there are those who share the foundational beliefs of myself and my family, who believe in one nation under God, who embrace the concept that each man, woman and child are created equal and are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights including life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
Is the grass greener on the other side of the fence? It may appear to be so but having lived on the other side of the fence; I am here to tell you that what may appear to be an oasis in the desert often turns out to be a mirage.

So what am I personally planning on doing? While I plan on being overseas for the foreseeable future, I am actively looking for property in The American Redoubt. Once I find what I am looking for, the plan is to have my retired in-laws live there full time and establish/assimilate themselves into the community with my family and I joining them when required in the future. (Note that in the meantime, I am also making preparations at our foreign residence in the event that something would occur that would make it impossible to immediately return to the USA).

For those of you who still insist on moving outside the USA, good luck – perhaps we’ll pass at the airport as I head back into the country while you are headed out.  For the rest of you, I look forward to speaking to you from across the fence – at our adjoining properties in the American Reboubt.

God bless you and God bless America. Yours Faithfully, – AmEx (American Expat)

Economics and Investing:

The $5 Trillion Man: Debt Has Increased Under Obama by $5,027,761,476,484

eBay Announces New Changes for Coins Listed in Auction. The two changes, in essence, that follow up on their earlier banning of “replica” coins: 1.) Starting May 30th, Sheldon Scale numbers (1 to MS70) can only be mentioned if the coins are PCGS or NGC graded and encapsulated (“slabbed.”). 2.) Any coins valued at $2,500+ must be PCGS or NGC slabbed. (JWR’s comment: Gee, do the coin grading firms make a slab big enough to hold a one kilo gold coin? And what about a 10 kilo silver coin? That weighs more than an M60 light machinegun.)

B.B. sent this: Food Stamp Rolls to Grow Through 2014, CBO Says

Items from The Economatrix:

Spain is Doomed; Why Austerity is Destroying Europe

Layoffs, Freezes, Retirements for US Public Sector

Gold/Platinum Ratio Suggests Much Higher Gold Prices are Coming Soon

There is Not Going to be a Solution to Our Economic Problems on the National Level

Odds ‘n Sods:

Prepper At Large suggested a free medical Expert System developed by the CD3WD Project, a free but high quality collection of practical How-To Technical Development Information. They bill their mission as: “Helping the Third World to help itself.” The site hosts 4,000 document titles filling a whopping 13 gigabytes.  All are free downloads.

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Earth as you’ve never seen it before: The best pictures of our planet taken from the orbiting Space Station. A couple of these photos underscore my comments on the high population density of Europe. (Thanks to R.B.S. for the link.)

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C.D.V. mentioned that the book The Everything Grow Your Own Vegetables Book, is currently available free, via Kindle.

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W.W. sent another near case of Death by GPS: ‘I shouldn’t be alive’: New York City man survives three-day ordeal in wilderness. (JWR Notes: Please don’t castigate him, since low blood sugar obviously clouded his judgment. And most Easterners have no concept of 7,000 foot elevation mountain passes in the West.)

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Lee M. sent this: Zoning the ocean.

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Massad Ayoob: A Thought for a Sunday

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Whosoever believeth that Jesus is the Christ is born of God: and every one that loveth him that begat loveth him also that is begotten of him. By this we know that we love the children of God, when we love God, and keep his commandments.” – 1 John 5:1 (KJV)

Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 40 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and E.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 40 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Understanding Five Types of Electrical Losses in Alternative Power Systems, by Roger A.

“Line Loss” is often mentioned when discussing alternative energy systems, but that is just one of several significant losses. This article will describe five distinct types of losses.

In an alternative energy system that incorporates a battery or battery bank, the first electrical loss is within the batteries themselves as they discharge, this is called the Puekert exponent. This loss increases with the aging of the batteries. Look at it this way: If you had a 500 gallon tank of water and you used 200 gallon a day you would have to replace 200 gallons every day or 400 gallons every other day. If this tank had a half inch hole it could lose say 50 gallons a day. That means you would have to put 250 gallons back in every day to keep it full.  The erosion on that hole would increase the size of the hole and the loss as time goes on. Whether you used water or not you would have to replace this loss or the tank would be empty when you wanted to use the water. Like that tank of water, a battery has the same type of loss every day, whether it is used or not. 

Second is line loss, which increases with line distance, especially in direct current low voltage applications. This is why higher voltages are becoming popular. The lower voltage’s lose efficiency and can become dangerous if wire sizing isn’t given special attention. On the other hand the higher the voltage the less choices of direct current appliances (12 volt) you will have. The lower the voltage the larger the wire must be to maintain a safe system. It also needs to be multi stranded. Multi-strand cabling increases the surface area. This can’t be overstated. 

 

The following table shows the Voltage Drop Index (VDI) per foot of various sizes of copper and aluminum cabling.

VDI = Amps times Feet divided by (% volt drop times voltage)

Wire Size – Copper Wire               Wire size – Aluminum Wire

AGW  VDI      Ampacity     VDI      Ampacity

0000   99       260             62         205
000     78       225             49         175
00       62       195             39         150
0         49       170             31         135
2         31       130             20         100
4         20        95             12           75
6         12        75 
8          8         55
10        5         30
12        3         20
14        2         15
16        1

Determine the appropriate wire size from chart above.

A) Take the VDI number you just calculated and find the nearest number in the VDI column, then read to the left for AWG wire gauge size.    B) Be sure that your circuit amperage does not exceed the figure in the Ampacity column for that wire size. (This is not usually a problem in low-voltage circuits.)

Example: A photovoltaic (PV) array consisting of four Sharp 80-watt modules is 60 feet from your 12-volt battery. This is actual wiring distance, up pole mounts, around obstacles, etc. These modules are rated at 4.63 amps X 4 modules = 18.5 amps maximum. We’ll shoot for a 3% voltage drop.   So our formula looks like: 

  VDI = (18.5 A a 60 ft.)divided by (3% x 12 V) = 30.8

Looking at our chart a VDI of 31 means we’d better use #2 gauge wire in copper, or #0 gauge aluminum wire. Hmmm. That is fat wire.

What if this system was instead 24 volt? The modules would be wired in series, so each pair of modules would produce 4.4 amps. Two pairs 4.63 amps = 9.3 amps, Max.   

VDI = ( 9.3 x 60 ft.) Divided by ( 3% x 24 V) = 7.8

What a difference! At 24 volts you could wire your array with # 8 gauge copper wire.

[JWR Adds: Up until the 1980s, residential aluminum AC wiring was allowed in new construction by the U.S. National Electrical Code (NEC), in branch circuits (inside walls.) But because of a higher incidence of house fires caused by overloaded circuits, beginning in the 1980s nearly all state building codes were updated to ban aluminum wiring in branch circuits, for new construction. Typically, these laws grandfathered aluminum wiring it in existing houses.]

Next, I’ll discuss inverters. Losses within inverters are the third types of loss. Converting direct current (DC) to 110 or 220-volt alternating current (AC) creates another electrical loss. Inverters are an electrical appliance and use electricity (3 to 40 watts) to run. The better inverters have a “search mode” using from 3 to 5 watts when no loads are detected. When operating an appliance they may use from 25 to 40 watts plus the appliance load. This can be anywhere from minutes to 24 hours a day, depending how long the inverter needs to be on to operate the appliances needed. The cheaper inverters do not have a search mode and must run 24 hours a day unless turned off and on mechanically. This usage can use up to 1,000 watts a day. This amount of electrical usage is equivalent to having two 100-watt panels in direct sunlight for 5 hours just for ability to use electricity if you want to, or three 100-watt panels if there are clouds passing by from time to time. It is much wiser to have an inverter with a search (sleep) mode especially if you have a load that needs to have access to electricity on a non continues basis, like a refrigerator or furnace. If the electrical system has one 110 Volt inverter and 220 Volts are needed the transformer uses electricity (25 to 35 watt range) just like any other appliance.

Phantom loads are the fourth loss. Phantom loads are created by appliances that have been designed to still need electricity while nominally switched “off”. The is often the greatest loss, especially in 110-volt AC systems. These are a serious problem in smaller systems. These can be voltage converters that convert a/c back to a variety of lower voltages both AC and DC (wall warts). Clocks, timers, remotes, smoke alarms, and even ground fault interrupt (GFI) outlets are all culprits. (It is noteworthy that GFI outlets are required by the electrical code for bathrooms and kitchens and can use as much as 5 watts per 24 hours.) Appliances with timers and clocks like microwaves and stoves also create phantom loads. Remote controlled appliances like televisions and stereos are the biggest users of electricity while off, some using as much as 80% as much electricity while off as when switched on. All so you can turn them on without going over and using physical force. If industry were to eliminate these phantom loads in their appliances we could close several power plants and save our environment and resources, as well as reducing heart attacks (exercise walking to the television and back to the chair) but people and industry would rather talk than do. These combined phantom loads often exceed the electrical consumption of the necessary household appliances like refrigerators and furnaces. Simple switching could save thousands of watts per household. These phantom loads would save enough electricity to eliminate the need for rolling blackouts in the cities, like happened in Texas.

[JWR Adds: The simple workaround to eliminate phantom loads is to put any identified culprit devices on power strips. When you’ve finished using the device, make sure that you turn off the entire power strip. The key here is to position the power strip in a convenient place on top of furniture, so that it doesn’t get overlooked. Granted, this approach detracts from your home’s decor.]

I was able to buy my second inverter and its accessories because of phantom loads. (These had soured their first owner on PV power.) Refrigerators are normally the largest users of electricity. Some have ice makers and need a “resistance heater” coil (in the freezer) to free the ice, automatically defrost, also using “resistance heating” and a “resistance heater” coil in the wall at the door to keep the magnets dry in humid climates because safe latches cost more to produce and diminish the manufacturer’s profits. These types of refrigerators can use 3.5 to 5 kWh per day. Short-term gain is certainly more important than efficiency or clean air. Some have a switch to disable this door feature for arid climates thus gaining the good ‘OLE’ Energy Star rating (most don’t). Another load can be a thermostat like all 120 VAC electric refrigerators and some gas heaters. When these are plugged into grid there is no load as the electric is available 24/7 (24 hours a day, 7 days a week) to the thermostat. Not so off grid. A cheap inverter has to run 24/7 to duplicate this feature, and can be using as high as 600 watts a day just to have your appliance off while allowing the capability for the appliance to come on. This usage can be eliminated by using an external thermostat with a plug system to plug into the wall and plug the refrigerator into the plug. 

[JWR Adds: If you want to track down all of the phantom loads in a modern house, buying a Kill-A-Watt Meter is strongly recommended.]
 
The better quality modified sine wave or pure sine wave inverters use a search mode and eliminate this problem, by allowing a mechanical device to be installed or the sensitivity to be lowered enough to sense the small voltage needed to make active the device.  The lack of a search mode is the fifth potential loss. All this is before whatever appliance you intend to run can have electricity to do its intended job. Some pellet and gas stoves used instead of central heat have electronics that are two sensitive to run on modified sine wave (as are many other appliances). In some this will cause their “magic blue smoke” to appear. Most of the quote “real deals” on inverters are for inverters that use modified sine wave technology. Even better deals are on older square wave inverters (which may cause motors to show their “magic” abilities also). Many of these are sold in places like eBay and the tool magazines ‘you pay your money you take your chances. When shopping for an inverter a person needs to be aware of this fact. Many solar stores try to sell what they have in stock rather than what you need. As larger chains become involved in the sale of solar equipment misinformation will increase. Many factories offer incentives to their retailers to buy these older types of inverters, thus clearing old stock. Many foreign companies only make the older type of inverters. It is truly buyer beware! “Good information is the key” search it out whenever possible and you will be rewarded.

Many of the systems that I have built, modified, or altered and tested were on a small solar system by today’s standard. Thus teaching myself to conserve and question efficiencies. This was important to me. By this time I was completely off grid and had cut my electrical consumption to less than 6 kWh per day. This included using my shop welder (electric) that made many of the devices (photovoltaic trackers, etc) that I was using. Most all the systems herein were modified in this manner. I often had electrical components waiting for the remainder of the upgrades.  The object was to use the old system as well as adding the new ones when they can be afforded. Mixing old but usable batteries with new will age the new making their capacity the same as the old, defeating the purpose of buying new. This is something that anyone who plans to become independent needs to learn while still living on grid. That way one knows how to deal with the quirks that arise without feeling the real discomfort that comes from not having put in the time to learn and understand. All of these remedies that I detail in my working for independence may not be the same avenues you wish to explore, but often the idea or the switching can be modified to be used in a different appliance or on a totally different project. Often just the idea will be the seed or the key leading to success, rather than “do it this way”  I now live in an earth ship miles from utilities. I make my own or do without. I have almost every convince that I had before, like a dishwasher, trash compacter, microwave, bread maker and many other kitchen appliances that use electricity. Many I could do without ‘but’ I like them and have made room for them in my life.  (Don’t we all.) Most people think this can’t be done. Not true! I have to be aware of my battery’s state of charge before using many of these appliances, but often I have spare electricity at the day’s end.

A Real World Perspective on Expense Paybacks
Many people ask me what is the payback time on all my solar power equipment? In reply, I ask them what is the payback on their electric bill, gas bill, water bill. Also, what is the pay back when the grid goes down and you lose everything in your freezer? I am helping the environment are you? I am not using alternative energy to make money; I am doing it for the independence that I gain!   Look around you. How many power outages have there been lately? I haven’t had any. How about you? One question I never hear in the solar power industry is what is my payback on the grid-tie system that someone else put in and [for which they] only paid a portion of and then claimed their payback was just so many years, and I as a taxpayer had to pay the balance? I paid for my own [system] out of my pocket, with no help from any agency or deduction whatsoever.

Letter Re: Defending Static Positions in a Survival Setting

Good day, Mister Rawles.

Thank you, as always, for the good work you do.

Regarding J.G.’s article homestead defence, it occurred to me that stand-off situations would become a likely possibility.

Reasonably, a group of attackers will launch an assault on your homestead and either succeed or fail to kill/capture you.
If they succeed the point is moot, but if they fail, what then? Unless their force is clustered or small you’re unlikely to kill them all. Odds are strong that after half their force (or maybe less) gets ventilated the rest will attempt to retreat.

What will they do afterwards? Look for a less defended homestead or simply wait for a better time to crack your defences? Perhaps they’ll set the nearby foliage alight after determining the direction of the wind and attack under cover of smoke or simply find the best position to take pot-shots at your residence. Several sleepless days later you’ll be exhausted and your nerves will be wracked.

Heaven forbid they have a distance shooter more skilled than your watchman. Suddenly the odds are not looking so great, are they?

It’s for this reason I think it’s important to be able to communicate with the goblins after they lay siege to your residence.
Negotiate?
Bargain?
Not a chance!

Instead, a suitably powerful loudspeaker (or failing that, a note wrapped around the shaft of an arrow) can convey to the goblins that you will fight to the bitter end, and that the last man standing will detonate a well placed petrol bomb and reduce their prize to ashes.

This strategy could even prove effective against less violent but more populous mobs (such as any locally organised “food redistribution teams”).
Cheapen the “reward” part of the enemy’s risk/reward analysis and you will certainly fight less battles than you might otherwise have to. You’ll also be able to give those less vicious trespassers their marching orders at a more suitable distance.

Kind regards, as always. – The Apple Islander

JWR Replies: In a world without advanced medical care or even antibiotics available, who in their right minds would risk repeated attacks on a resilient target? It is reasonable to expect that in most cases, looters will see the error of their ways and move on to easier pickings. (Unarmed victims.) Your part of this equation is to be truly resilient. In a situation where there is no extant law enforcement agency left to summon, it will be “You’re on your own” (YOYO) time. Don’t ever make the mistake of appeasing or negotiating with goblins. Looters only understand thick walls, stout doors, and force. So be prepared to provide plenty.

Sometimes a display of force will be enough to discourage looters, so that they will go find easier pickings. As I mentioned once before in SurvivalBlog, one of my consulting clients is a rancher in the intermountain west. He has a 24″ diameter, 3/4″-thick round steel plate hung up on chains above his perimeter fence gate, which is 250 yards from his house. (He has a typical western ranch entry gate with a very high, stout crosspiece.) This plate is painted with his cattle brand logo, so to the casual observer it merely looks decorative. He’s told me is that his intention is that if miscreants stop and show signs of forcing his gate, he will used a scoped FAL rifle to apply several rapid shots to that steel plate. He calls it his “Go away” bell. Hearing his “bell” ring will be a clear message to los hombres malos: “You have 250 yards of open ground to traverse to get to my house. Do you feel lucky, or bulletproof?”

Again, in genuinely Schumeresque times, during hours of darkness it is likely that a semi-auto burst of tracer rounds fired over the heads of a gang of looters might have a similar effect. One of my readers also suggested placing 20 pound Tannerite targets in positions around a retreat’s perimeter. Ideally, these target would be positioned so that they can be seen and targeted by the retreat defenders but not by the attackers. (Tannerite can be really impressive.) Depending on the circumstances, demonstrating one or two of those going “boom” in plain view somewhere between the looters and your retreat residence might be a good way to encourage the ruffians to leave.

One strong proviso: The use of “warning shots” or other displays of force could be misconstrued. State laws on warning shots vary widely. (Be sure to check your local and state laws!) In some states, this might be considered justifiable, but it in others it is a potential felony. I would only recommend doing this in the midst of a true “worst case” societal collapse, only from a long distance (firing from cover), and only if no law enforcement were available to call. Do not attempt this in present day circumstances or you will risk getting sued or prosecuted! Also note that tracer ammunition and Tannerite are banned in a few jurisdictions. Again: Do your homework!

Please don’t mistake any of the foregoing as sure solutions. Merely scaring off looters might not be sufficient. Certainly don’t use displays of force more than once, per customer. The first time should be their only warning. Be prepared, if need be, to follow it up with a heavy dose of lead if they persist and thereby demonstrate that they plan to kill you.

And you are right: You need to be able to demonstrate that you are willing to fight to finish. Anything less will be a sign of weakness that can be exploited.

Letter Re: Rules of Engagement and Escalation of Force for the Armed Citizen

Recently Fox News published an article about a Hew Hampshire man being arrested on reckless endangerment for discharging a firearm into the ground as a warning shot to stop a burglar. Reading that article got me thinking about what rules of engagement and escalation of force would look like for civilians. As a former infantry officer and combat veteran of the U.S. Army, I am familiar with the Army’s rules of engagement (ROE) and the use of escalation of force (EOF).

Soldiers have a clearly defined set of rules of engagement and escalation of force for different scenarios from peace-time guard duty to combat operations. I believe responsible armed citizens should have them as well. What I would recommend for each firearm owner is to determine what your top 2 to 3 most likely scenarios for dealing with a possibly armed and dangerous individual would be, researching the state and local laws regarding self defense and the defense of others, then developing your
own rules of engagement (ROE) and escalation of force (EOF) for each of those scenarios. One set of ROE and EOF may be all you need or a couple of them may be necessary. Personally, I prefer to keep it simple so I only have one set of ROE and EOF.

A useful model of rules of engagement to base your own off of is the U.S. Army’s ROE for guard duty. The acronym RAMP may help you develop your own ROE:
• R – Return Fire with Aimed Fire. Return force with force. You always have the right to repel hostile acts with necessary force.
• A – Anticipate Attack. Use force if, but only if, you see clear indicators of hostile intent.
• M – Measure the amount of force that you use, if time and circumstances permit. Use only the amount of force necessary to protect lives and accomplish the mission.
• P – Protect with deadly force only human life and property designated by your commander. Stop short of deadly force when protecting other property.

Remember, this is a base model and should be modified for your specific scenarios. I would argue that there is little property that you may have that a jury would deem worthy of protection by the use of deadly force. Therefore, my personal ROE excludes the use of deadly force to protect my personal property and property of others as I do not wish to face an arrest and/or conviction over stuff that can be replaced. Develop your own ROE with what you are comfortable with that is in accordance with state and local laws. State and local laws vary greatly on the use of deadly force to protect personal property so make sure you check the applicable laws in your area before adding that to your ROE and actually using deadly force to protect your property or the property of others. The use of a firearm against another individual, whether they survive or not, may be considered using deadly force.

Next is your escalation of force or EOF for short. The U.S. Army model for EOF is below:
• SHOUT – verbal warning to halt.
• SHOVE – nonlethal physical force.
• SHOW – intent to use weapon.
• SHOOT – deliberately aimed shots until threat no longer exists.
Warning shots are not permitted.

It should be noted that military installations are generally around a populated area and the most likely scenario they will face is a protest and/or riot so the guard duty ROE and EOF do not allow for warning shots in order to prevent collateral damage and unintended civilian casualties.

For my own personal EOF guide I have removed the Shove step as a bad guy within range of physical contact is too close and would leave precious little time to anticipate an attack. Therefore my personal EOF guide is Shout, Show, Shoot. In the case of the New Hampshire man who fired a warning shot, checking state and local laws regarding warning shots could possibly have saved him from the ensuing legal battle he was faced with. Again, be absolutely certain to check your state and local laws before adding warning shots to your EOF and/or actually firing a warning shot. Ignorance is not a valid defense and you should not turn yourself into a criminal by firing a warning shot if they are not permitted in your locale.

Another great place to learn about state and local laws for the use of a firearm for self defense is a state approved concealed carry course. Some states, such as Florida, do not require a course if you can prove you are proficient in the use of firearms (such as a DD-214 discharge document from the military). If your state does not require a course, attending an NRA or other licensed instructor course for concealed carry will educate you on where you can and can not carry as well as provide you with different scenarios on when to use force. Each year the NRA also publishes the Traveler’s Guide to Firearms Laws of the Fifty States which will inform you as to what states recognize other state’s permits. Remember, that publication is only a resource and should not be substituted for checking with state and local laws on where you intend to carry.

By having a thought out and planned set of Rules of Engagement and Escalation of Force guide you will be better prepared to react to adverse situations and will have a better defense against criminal prosecution if you use that level of force only which is necessary to neutralize the threat and/or diffuse the situation. Sincerely, – B.K.

Economics and Investing:

After an unexpectedly long delay, here it comes: Stivers’ steel-coin bill gets hearing in House. (2012 may be your last chance to stack up your rolls of nickels with relative ease, at face value.)

Reader “AmEx” sent this: Taxmageddon coming? Answer could cost Americans $500 billion

The latest in the ever-growing world of derivatives: Could the Next Investment Craze Be Hedging Marriages?

Kevin S. sent this: It’s Starting To Look Like This Notorious Book On The End Of Growth Was Right

Several readers sent this: 16 Reasons To Move Away From California

Items from The Economatrix:

More US Cities Set to Enter Default Danger Zone

Did Doctor Copper Become Doctor Plopper?

Gold Heading to $700; Author Sees “Impending Collapse”

Economists’ Forecast:  Congress Won’t Fix Economy

Odds ‘n Sods:

After a long interval, Ol’ Remus of The Woodpile Report again addresses the fine art of stacking woodpiles.

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Scientists Say Spread of Schmallenberg Virus Is ‘Warning To Europe’. (Thanks to Gregg P. for the link.)

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Chris M. sent this amazing tale of long-term caching: Twenty Spitfire aircraft buried in Burma during war to be returned to UK.

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I just heard that Levon Helm passed away. He was a man who will be missed. By coincidence, just a couple of days ago I heard a cover of the song “Up on Cripple Creek”, and commented to myself that it wasn’t nearly as good as Levon Helm and The Band’s rendition.

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Jessica Hooley, the author of the Salt n’ Prepper blog, just posted this how-to piece: Super Saver: DIY ’100 Hour Candles