Letter Re: A Home Purchasing Guide For Rookies

Mr. Rawles,
In response to the article entitled A Home Purchasing Guide For Rookies, I feel compelled to set the record straight.  Before doing so, I want to thank you for your factual comments at the end of his letter.

The purpose of my response is to ensure that Survival Blog readers get factual information that they can use in their decision making process.  The author of the article made some unfair and sweeping generalizations about Real Estate professionals in general.  Hopefully he will read and learn from the recent posts about logic and decision making.  Here is an outline of sorts:

  1. Always get pre-approved for a loan prior to looking at properties – if not using all cash.
    1. This ensures that you can make immediate offers when you find the right property.
    2. Not doing so can lead to delays in your offer going out or being accepted and the property may go under contract during the delay.
    3. A good listing agent will insist that all offers are  submitted with a minimum of a pre-approval letter – from the loan officer at the buyers lender, proof of funds – usually bank statements showing seasoned liquid funds that will cover the down payment, and a copy of the good faith deposit – a check that will be deposited into escrow or held by one of the brokers involved in the transaction.
    4. Shop around for your loan – The way you do this is by comparing the APR offered from each lender, not the advertised rate.  The APR includes all of the lenders fees and costs that are passed on to you.
    5. Conventional wisdom says that a 30 year fixed loan is the best loan to get.  While this makes sense in a lot of situations, there are situations where a 15 fixed year loan makes more sense.  There are even situations where a 3, 5 7 or 10 year ARM make sense.  For example, will you sell and move again within 3, 5, 7 or 10 years?  If so, it may make sense to take the lower rate.  Of course, if you are moving to the American Redoubt, you  probably want to go with the fixed rate loan or cash.  As JWR says, “you will not be coming back.”
    6. A good agent will be able to give you a list of lenders that they trust and have good reputations and with loan programs that fit your situation.
    7. You don’t have to put 20% down to purchase a property!  This is one of the biggest myths I hear.  It is probably what your parents and grandparents had to do, but it is no longer true today.  In fact, a lot of people are using FHA loans which require only 3.5% down.  A lot will depend upon prices in the area you intend to buy in, your cash reserves, and your financial strategy.  This can be a huge help for someone buying their first home, or for someone who previously lost their property to foreclosure or sold it short due to a true hardship (usually financial).
  2. Every market is different.
    1. Some locales are actually seeing sellers markets right now.  Here in the San Francisco Bay area we are experiencing a red hot sellers market.
    2. Some locales are still seeing buyers markets.
    3. Make sure you know what kind of market you are in as it will impact how you negotiate and the terms and amount you offer.
    4. Your agent should be able to provide you with data that shows exactly what kind of market you are in and explain why.
    5. Your agent should also prepare you for what you will need to do to purchase or sell in that particular market.
    6. The bottom line is that an assessment of what kind of market you are in can be done based on data, not someone’s word.
  3. Your agent matters!
    1. You get what you pay for on the selling side – Experience, Negotiating Skills, Advocacy, someone who can tell you honestly what you need to do to get top dollar for your property.  It is their job to – protect your interests, get top dollar for your property in the least amount of time with minimal disruption to your life while doing so.
    2. You get what you pay for on the buying side – many buyers agents are newer agents – this is not necessarily a bad thing.  Ask to meet their support system – team leader, manager, Broker, etc.  You will be working indirectly with those folks through your agent.  Some are very experienced agents.  The buyers agents job is to know the inventory that is available, know what your wants, needs and price range are, to preview properties for you before showing them to you, and to get the best price and terms for you. 
    3. In general, the most experienced agents usually handle listings as it is a more efficient use of their time and requires more skill than showing property and making offers.  The newer agents typically handle buyers for the more experienced agents, and are compensated less, but are mentored by the more experienced agents.  Then there are those that do both and do a commendable job.
    4. All agents are not created equal – there are two levels of agents, Brokers and Salespersons.  Both are licensed to list and sell real estate, but the experience, education and level of accountability for a Broker are much higher.  Brokers can hire and supervise sales agents, not the other way around because of the education, experience and level of accountability required to become a broker.
    5. Agents are people – some are good people, some are not.- some are ethical, some are not – some are honest, some are not – some are god fearing, some are not – you get the picture.
    6. Select an agent carefully – Do your research – ask friends and family for their opinions of agents that they have worked with, Hint – the one that you met at church may not be your best bet.  My aunt called me, and told me she wanted to sell her house.  She was having a minor dilemma as she had a good friend at church who was an agent.  I told her to use her friend as her property was slightly out of my area, and I didn’t want her to injure any relationships.  Long story short, their relationship was destroyed anyway as her agent turned out to be very weak and didn’t communicate key dates which lead to delays in closing.   Interview 3 or 4 agents and pick the one that you believe has your best interests at heart.  If you don’t like any of those agents, interview more until you find the one that you are comfortable with.
    7. Beware of discount brokerages!  Use your intellect and common sense.  They are discounting for a reason.  Do your homework before using one of these.  Ask them (and any agent for that matter) for proof of their results.  Again, you get what you pay for.
  4. Laws and what is reasonable and customary change from city to city, county to county, within a county, state to state and within a state.
    1. A good agent will explain to you what these are in the area you are buying or selling in and should be able to show you documentation to support what they are saying.  This information can usually be obtained from a title company.
  5. A good agent understands that they do not sell real estate.  They are a consultant, an advisor and a service provider.  A good agent will admit that trying to sell someone on a property is a fools errand.  The agent doesn’t sell the house, home, property, ranch, farm or what have you.  The house sells the house!  I tell my clients as much. I also tell them that we will both know when a specific property is for them.  I tell them that I will have to remind them of the criteria that they gave me when we did our initial interview, and that this house isn’t a good fit. When  they begin to argue why a particular property is perfect for them, that is the property that is usually for them..  JWR is absolutely correct in that purchasing real estate should be done dispassionately.  My experience both personally and professionally is that most people make the decision to purchase a property emotionally.  Although, there are those that are highly analytical and will stick to their criteria, detach themselves emotionally and make the decision dispassionately.
  6. If you feel like your agent is a used car salesman, fire them.  This isn’t the person you are looking for.  There is a language of sales.  You know what it sounds like.  It makes you bristle when you hear it.  You know when you’re being sold and you know when you are receiving a service.  You should feel like you are receiving a service. 
  7. Knowing that a buyers agents job is to get you the best property for the lowest price and best terms possible, and that the sellers agents job is to get the seller the highest price and the best terms in the time frame the seller wants, you can see that if they do their jobs correctly they will be negotiating with their respective clients best interests in mind,  Using the $100,000 example with a total commission of 5%, the total commission is $5,000.  That gets split 50/50 between the buyers and sellers agents office, so $2500   Each agents office takes a cut, a typical split is 70/30 with each agent getting 70% of their respective offices $2,500.  This works out to $1,750 per agent.  If a buyers agent were to try to talk a buyer into paying $110,000, the agents check would increase to $1,925.  Hardly enough to risk getting a bad reputation over.  In this business, you are truly only as good as your last transaction.  On the other side of the transaction, the sellers agent should list the property at a price that will cause the property to sell in a given market.  If they sell the same property in the example above for $90,000, their check only goes down $175 to $1,575.  In this case they would be doing their client a disservice as well as themselves.  Note that the numbers used are for illustration purposes only and are not typical in most markets.  For example, here our average sales price for the entire office is $400,000 with a 6% commission.
  8. Is there a case when the buyers agent should counsel their client to offer more than list price?  Yes.  Your agent should check comparable sales in the area, and show them to you to help you decide how much and what terms to offer.  If you are in a sellers market where pending sales are a lot higher than the number of unsold properties in inventory, and multiple offers are being placed on properties, you are very likely to have to pay more than list to acquire that property.  Your agent will be doing you a disservice and wasting their time and yours if they don’t show you the data and explain this to you.  Sometimes an agent needs to write a couple of offers for a client to get the client to understand that trying to get a property at a discount in a sellers market is an unworkable strategy.  In a buyers market, the logic is reversed.
  9. Always get at least a general property inspection, a termite inspection and a roof inspection – unless you are a general contractor or know what you are doing  These inspections are done by third parties that can be held legally accountable for missing issues within their area of expertise.  They will also identify areas for additional or further inspection.  In rural areas, you are going to want other inspections, such as septic, possibly well, soil  and others to name a few.  Hint – you can usually get discounted prices for these services if you pay at the time the services are rendered instead of paying through escrow when the transaction closes.
  10. Short sales are currently taking 4 to 6 months to close even for listing agents that routinely perform short sales.
    1. Some short sales move faster, some move slower.
    2. Banks are currently attempting to reduce the time to close short sales through process improvements.
    3. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are making it easier for banks and investors to process short sales.
    4. In a buyers market, a listing agent that knows what they are doing will usually price the property 10% below market.  This will allow you to get a good deal, but you will have to wait some time to close.
    5. Short sales cost banks less money to close when compared to foreclosures.  This is because by the time a foreclosure closes, the bank has incurred additional holding costs, legal fees, and maintenance fees.  Foreclosed properties may get broken into and vandalized, and can end up costing the bank even more money in repairs.
    6. A bank does not have to agree to a short sale.  Even though a seller may accept a low offer, the bank is going to have an appraisal performed, and if the appraisal does not come in around the offer price, the bank will usually counter or reject the offer.
  11. If you purchase a foreclosed property, keep in mind that a bank has fewer statutory requirements for disclosure than a seller has in a traditional sale or a short sale.
    1. Do your due diligence!  Get inspections.  Talk to neighbors about the property. Neighbors will often have crucial information about the property that may impact your decision to purchase the property.
  12. Negotiating is about getting to a win-win situation.
    1. Negotiations should be planned.  You will need to know going in what you must get out of the negotiation as well as what you believe the other parties position will be and what they will need to get out of the negotiation.
    2. Negotiations are about finding common ground.  The seller wants to sell the property, and the buyer wants to buy the property.  Think about what could cause both parties to believe that they were treated fairly.
    3. Do not approach a negotiation with a scorched earth policy in mind.  If you do, you will ultimately fail. If you don’t believe me, talk to the Israelis and the Palestinians.  If you are moving to a small town or community, remember that people talk.  You do want to fit in don’t you?
    4. Feel free to think out of the box to make the deal work.  Negotiating is not all about price.  Do you have something of value that you can bring to the table to sweeten the deal instead of paying more?  On the other side of the table, would you agree to a lower price if the other party provided something else of value that you want or need?

There is much more that I could write.  However, I find that the topics addressed above are some of the most common topics that I spend time discussing with people when we are considering working together.  Please understand that the real estate transaction sales cycle is complex and presents many challenges financially, legally, ethically and even morally.  The business is one in which I take great pride in, and get much enjoyment from.  Many of my clients become friends after we have worked together.  I find this especially rewarding.

A disclaimer:  I am not a lawyer and as a result do not practice law or give legal advice.  I am not a CPA or financial planner and do not provide financial or tax advice.  If you need these services, please contact the appropriate professional.  I am licensed to sell Real Estate in California.  I am not licensed in any other state. Keep your powder dry! – Derrick D.

Economics and Investing:

Former Hedge Fund Manager Warns Of ‘THE END GAME’ In Terrifying Presentation. (Thanks to Todd M. for the link.)

Also from Todd: What if US gets downgraded again?

B.B. sent this: Debt crisis: a $46 trillion problem comes sweeping in

June 5, 1933: FDR takes United States off gold standard

Items from The Economatrix:

Many Unemployed Facing Early End to Benefits

The Truth About Europe:  There is No Solution

The Global Economy is Sitting on a Volcano.  What Happens Next?

Steve Quayle Alert:  Acceleration of Financial Meltdown Can’t Be Stopped

Zero Hedge: The Real Banking Crisis, Part II

John Galta:  The Collapse is the Easy Part

Odds ‘n Sods:

A good piece by Brandon Smith: The Realities of Choosing Your Survival Retreat Location

   o o o

“The Looting Started Right Away” – At Nigerian DC-10 Crash

   o o o

Another voice from industry, warning of systemic risk: The lights go out: What happens if the grid goes down?

   o o o

Wood Boilers. Woody Chain provides a reality check, for anyone considering buying an outdoor wood-fired home heating boiler.

   o o o

Scratch another country off your list of potential offshore retreat locales: Venezuela bans private gun ownership. This move is just another requisite step for the country’s dictator to consolidate power and to silence any opposition. As usual, only the honest and law-abiding will heed this law, making them vulnerable to both criminals and tyrants. It is sad, seeing a repeat of the same tyrannical progression of China, Cuba, Hungary, and elsewhere.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Don’t you see that the whole aim of Newspeak is to narrow the range of thought? In the end we shall make thoughtcrime literally impossible, because there will be no words in which to express it. Every concept that can ever be needed, will be expressed by exactly one word, with its meaning rigidly defined and all its subsidiary meanings rubbed out and forgotten.” – The character Syme, in 1984 by George Orwell

A Special Note on Simultaneous Blog Article Submissions

On two recent occasions, readers have without my knowledge sent me articles for the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest that they had previously submitted elsewhere. In one of these cases, their article had already been posted. (At the new blog site SurvivingPrepper.com.) Once I became aware of their prior copyright, I quickly removed that article. (On my site, the article was titled “Childbirth at Home, by J.C.”)

I must remind readers that they are bound by the contest rules and should feel constrained by common courtesy: Simultaneous submissions are not accepted! I greatly appreciate you contributing to the collective knowledge at SurvivalBlog, but please respect the copyright ownership of third parties. Thanks!

Pat’s Product Review: M&M M10-762 Rifle

I’m a big fan of AK-47 style rifles. But I must mention that all the AK-47 style rifles presently sold in the US, are not genuine AK-47 assault rifles. Rather, they are semiautomatic versions of the famed Russian AK-47. Properly, an AK-47 is a select-fire (full auto) battle weapon. Still, no matter how I try to educate people on this, even gun shop owners, they still continue to call semi-auto versions an “AK-47.” So, to concede to the new terminology norm, we’ll just call these rifles AK-47s.
 
I still remember the first semi-auto AK-47that I I purchased, it was back in 1987 (if memory serves me correctly.) I then lived in Colorado Springs, Colorado, and a friend and I operated a gun business out of his gas station, as well as selling at gun shows. I purchased a folding stock, Chinese-made AK-47 with a bayonet, three magazines, magazine pouch, cleaning kit and some other neat stuff, for the princely sum of $189. Yes, try and find that same kind of a deal today. While I really liked that gun, ammo hadn’t yet started pouring into the US at affordable prices. So, I soon sold the gun.
 
Today, there is all manner of AK-47s on the market, and to be sure, some are better made than others. And,, there is a good supply of Russian-made 7.62 x 39 ammo available for AKs and SKS rifles. I’d suggest that you “buy it cheap and stack it deep” while you still can. About six years ago, you could buy a case of AK ammo for abut $90. Today, this same ammo will cost you from $210 to $250! Even so, this ammo is still a bargain in my book, so get it before prices go up (again) and certainly before the November elections. (After that, watch ammo dry up and prices soar, once again.)
 
The AK under review today is from M&M, Inc. which also operates under the umbrella of Colorado Gun Sales. They are producing what they call the M10-762. I’ve had my sample for about three three months now, and I really wanted to wring it out, before reporting to SurvivalBlog readers. I’ve written about several AKs in the past, and they were good guns. However, this newest version from M&M Inc is, in my humble opinion, the finest AK-47 you can buy for the money, period!
 
M&M claims that the M10-762 is manufactured out of brand-new high quality parts – everything is newly manufactured to be US Section 922(r) compliant, though the receiver is made in Romania.. Some people have a “problem” with AK receivers made in Romania – take it for what it’s worth, but I don’t put much stock in those complaints. The M10-762 has a brand-new, chrome-lined 16.25″ barrel, with a 1:10 twist rate, with four lands and grooves, with a right-hand twist, if this stuff is important you. The overall length of this gun is 26″ with the fixed stock, and they are coming out with folding stock versions, if you want a more compact carry gun. The rifle weighs-in at 7.3 pounds, but their web site says the gun weighs 6-lbs. I contacted Colorado Gun Sales on this, and they said they were going to correct their web page.
 
The M10-762 takes all standard AK-47 magazines, and the rifle is supplied with one magazine. It has a TAPCO RAZR muzzle brake/flash suppressor on the end of the barrel. The RAZR can also be used as a “compliance” device because of the super-sharp cut to the brake. The pistol grip is outstanding. This rubber covered pistol grip is not only larger than the standard AK pistol grip, but it is perfectly configured to fit the hand if you ask me. If there is a better pistol grip out there for an AK, then I haven’t found it. The stock is USA-made (by TAPCO) and is black synthetic of some sort. The fore end on the M10-762 is an aluminum quad-rail type, firmly attached, so you can mount lasers, lights and red dot optics on it if you choose – and this is a really nice quad-rail, to be sure. My only complaint is that the rail covers that came with the quad-rail are thick and make the foreend feel too thick. A quick call to Brownell’s solves my problem with a set of “ladder” rails – these cover and protect the rails but don’t add any girth. These are a “must have”, in my humble opinion.
 
The front sight is mounted on the gas block, instead of on the end of the barrel. This gives you a slightly shorter sighting radius, but I didn’t find it to be any sort of a handicap in my shooting. The rear sight is an RPK graduated fully adjustable for windage and elevation sight that adjusts all the way up to 1,000 meters. That is a bit of a stretch to be sure, for the 7.62 x 39 round. While the sight is easy to adjust, I found it a little bit bulky for my tastes, and I may replace it with the standard elevation (only) rear sight. (We’ll see.)
 
A TAPCO single-hook trigger is installed in the M10-762, and I think this is the best after-market AK trigger you can have in an AK. The let-off was right at 4 pounds on my sample and it was very smooth, too. A TAPCO AK retaining plate is used to keep the trigger pin and safety pin in place – a much better set-up than the simple bent spring that comes with most AKs these days. The lower receiver is stamped and heat-treated to military specs. No cleaning rod was included, and because of the design of the gun, you can’t slide a cleaning rod under the barrel – no big deal in my book. I suppose a person could adapt some kind of set-up to the M10-762 to install a cleaning rod, if you were determined to have one on your rifle. There is also a quick-detachable scope mount base on the left side of the receiver if you want to mount a scope.
 
Take-down was a piece of cake with the M10-762, not that I expected anything less from an AK-style of rifle. I did think the parts fit together just a little bit better (closer tolerances) on this gun, than many other AKs I’ve owned and used over the years. And, I believe this accounted for the superb accuracy I got out of this gun – with a mixed bag of Russian-made ammo, this gun is capable of shooting 2″ groups all day long, if you do you part. You can’t get much better than that from an AK, as most AKs will shoot in the 4″ – 5″ group size at 100 yards. With US-made AK ammo, you will be able to tighten-up those groups.
 
I had only one failure to fire in more than firing 1,000-rds of ammo. I found an old box of Chinese-made AK ammo, that someone had given me. This ammo hasn’t been imported into the US for about 25 years now – and I have no idea how this lone box of ammo was stored. One round from the box wouldn’t fire – and I tried this round several times – the primer was pierced on the third attempt to fire this round, so it wasn’t the gun – it was a dud round, plain and simple.
 
There wasn’t any sling included in the cardboard box the M10-762 came in – I thought that was a little bit “cheap” on the part of M&M – but you can pick-up an AK/SKS sling for around $5.00 – $6.00 these days – used to be a buck or two, but everything is going up in price.
 
When I first fired the M10-762 sample, the sights were “off” just a little bit. It took a complete turn on the front sight to get the elevation dead-on, and two clicks on the RPK rear sight to get the windage where it needed to be. And, if you own and AK or plan on getting one, you must get an AK front sight adjusting tool. You can use a brass punch and hammer all day long on the front sight if you want to move if for windage, and all you’ll do is mar-up the front sight. Get the tool, as they are only about $6 and it’ll save a lot of headaches.
 
The only thing I didn’t like about the M10-762 were the rubber covers on the quad-rail, as already mentioned. The magazine release was a little bit rough, and it only took me a minute to smooth it out with a Dremel Tool. (Go slowly with any power tools!) An AK that shoots 2″ groups all day long, with Russian-made 7.62 x 39 ammo is a keeper in my book. As much as I love my AR-15 style rifles, and my FAL, if I only had time to grab one rifle and run to the hills with it, or I’d only be allowed to own one rifle (heaven help us, if that ever happens) the M10-762 is “the” gun I’d grab. I will buy a spare firing pin and extractor for this gun – just to have – not that I’ve ever broken one of these parts – but just in-case I ever need them, I’ll have ’em.
 
Now, for me to pick an AK over an AR or my FAL, for an end of the world scenario is saying a lot of a rifle.  I’ve owned a lot of AKs over the years, as well as an untold number of ARs. But the M10-762 is the gun I’d pick if I had to go into the boonies, where maintenance would be difficult, and parts impossible to find.  Yes, you can spend a lot more on an AK, and you can spend less for an AK – but you won’t get a better AK than the M10-762 if you ask me. Full retail is $650 on this gun – I got mine for $599 because it was the first one my local gun shop got in the store. They’ve had several more since then, and they usually sell the same day they get them. When you handle one, you’re going to want it – so take the checkbook or credit card with you, when you check out one of these AKs.

Letter Re: Evaluating Military Surplus Generator Sets Before Bidding at Auction

JWR,
Thanks for the recent post mentioning GovLiquidation.com-listed auctions in response to a reader’s question about concertina wire. While browsing the site, I found lots of generator sets (“gensets“) offered and I am wondering if there are any caveats a buyer should be aware of before purchasing (besides the long drive to retrieve a purchase). Thanks for all you do for the SurvivalBlog community. – G.R. in Texas

JWR Replies: Military surplus (“milsurp“) gensets are generally a bargain. But unfortunately, the days of incredibly cheap milsurp generator auctions is gone. This is because the scrap copper merchants will now be there to run up the bidding. (The large copper windings on the generators are now fairly valuable for scrap. Therefore, even if the genset is not working, there is now a “floor” under the auction prices. The only exception would be if you are lucky enough to go to a lightly-attended “sleeper” auction.

Here are my recommendations:

  • Check the genset’s data plate carefully. This will tell you a lot about its maker, model, specifications, and year of manufacture.
  • Be sure the check the genset’s “Hours” meter before bidding. (If it has one. Most military generators do.)
  • Check the dip stick for the oil color (the oil should look brown, not black!) and for any signs of coolant contamination, which would indicate a leaking head gasket in water-cooled gensets.
  • Depending on the local efficiency of DRMO auction yard, military gensets can come complete with maintenance records typically in a manila folder or in a plastic log book. If you are fortunate and the genset that you plan to bid on has a maintenance log, then read through it thoroughly before bidding.
  • If the genset is trailer-mounted, then be sure to check the condition of the trailer tires. You will also need to buy a military style (pintle and ring) trailer hitch for your pickup’s receiver before you travel to bid on a trailer-mounted genset. Be prepared!
  • If you plan to buy a small skid-mounted generator, then bring a couple of beefy friends with you, and a sturdy loading ramp for your pickup or trailer. OBTW, one great trick is using five or six 3-foot lengths of 1-1/2-inch diameter steel pipe that you can use as rollers. Generators can be quite heavy!
  • If the genset that you buy does not come with a manual, then you should be able to find one in PDF online, or on an inexpensive CD-ROM. These include user-level Field Manuals (FMs), Technical Manuals (TMs), Technical Bulletins (TBs), and Lubrication Orders (LOs).

OBTW, a few of the recent generation of Kubota three-cylinder diesel gensets are now starting to work their way out of service and to military surplus yards. If you can find one of those, then snag it! They are fantastically reliable. They can also burn JP-4 and even biodiesel.

Letter Re: A South Carolinian Seeking Retreat Locale Advice

Mr. Rawles,
 I live in the Upstate area of South Carolina. Actually live in Spartanburg. Here is the info on my area, from Wikipedia:  

“Spartanburg has a municipal population of 37,013 and an urban population of 145,058 at the 2010 census.[4] The Spartanburg Metropolitan Statistical Area, corresponding to Spartanburg County, had a population of 284,307 as of the 2010 census.[4]
Spartanburg is the second-largest city in the greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson Combined Statistical Area which had a population of 1,266,995 at the 2010 census.[4] It is part of a 10-county region of northwestern South Carolina known as “The Upstate,” and is located 98 miles (158 km) northwest of Columbia, 80 miles (130 km) west of Charlotte, and about 190 miles (310 km) northeast of Atlanta.”

We have a ten man team with families, but to my thinking, this area, even out in farming country ( Where our retreat is.) within 15-20 miles, this is still very risky, and personally feel the need to find a place further out, maybe out of state. What is your opinion?  I’d really appreciate any thoughts. No detail needed, just a confirmation or set my mind at ease. Thank you sir.
God bless, – S.F.C.

JWR Replies: There is some good farming country and many good and trustworthy folks where you live.  But the key problems are population density and the distance to urban areas.  There are just too many people to pull through a grid-down collapse without a major die-off.  That die-off would not be peaceful. The sad fact is that the population density problem is true for most of the eastern United States. Lets choose Montana, for comparison.

Compare these statistics:

“The population of South Carolina (31,189 square miles) is 4,679,230.” And “…the greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson Combined Statistical Area which had a population of 1,266,995 at the 2010 census.”

…to these:

“The population of Montana (147,165 square miles) is 989,415.”    And: “Montana is a large state – a trip via interstate [highway] from the far eastern town of Wibaux [Montana] to the western border town of Mullan, [Idaho] is over 700 miles, an estimated 12 hour trip.” [Emphasis added.]

So… Montana is five times the size of South Carolina, but it has less than 1/4th of its population. Here is brief intellectual exercise: What cities would you pass through and where would you end up if you drove 12 hours from Spartanburg at 70 m.p.h. in any given direction? (Well, obviously if you went east it is just 230 miles to the Atlantic Ocean…) But how much population would you pass through in those 12 hours, especially if you headed north, or northeast, or south? Now consider the same exercise, but starting from, say, Cut Bank. Montana. You certainly wouldn’t reach any significant “urban” area for a long, long while. The first good-sized city that you would reach (after two hours of driving 70 m.p.h. without taking a bio break) is Helena. That is the state capitol, but it has only about 28,000 people.

See the Retreat Areas Page for my recommendations. Be sure to take a look at the “Lights of the U.S.” photo maps at Blue Marble. A picture tells a thousand words.

If you must hunker down in the Upstate region of South Carolina, then for a true “worst case” situation be prepared to have no outside contact for two years or longer. Meanwhile, while refugees from the cold northern states will presumably flood the southeastern U.S. while concurrently a nationwide die-off takes place. Living through that will take a lot of stored food and fuel, plenty of teamwork, and castle-like architecture. Furthermore, you would have to be situated on a piece of land with spring water or a shallow well that is well away from any highway or other natural line of drift for looters and refugees.

Granted, the Upstate region is quite good by southeastern US standards. It is certainly much safer than the Atlanta or Raleigh-Durham regions. But that is all relative, as I outlined above. The Upstate region might pull through a deep economic depression just fine, if the power grid stays up. But if the grid goes down for more than a month, then update your will and say your prayers.

If you can, then relocate to The American Redoubt. We have lots of elbow room.In my estimation, fewer people will mean fewer problems.

Letter Re: Details on the Rawles Ranch

Mr. Rawles:
I’ve noticed that you haven’t mentioned many details about where you live, or much about your daily life, like most other blogs do. Just curious. – R.K. in Alabama

JWR Replies: I try not to clutter my blog with daily minutiae. Since SurvivalBlog is intended to be educational, I try to stick to the preparedness issues at hand, as much as possible. That means downplaying politics and minimizing posts with detailed descriptions of what I’m eating, the eccentricities of our pets, my favorite music, and so forth. There are plenty of other blogs out there in the blogosphere for that.

To maintain our family’s privacy, we are forced to be very circumspect. For OPSEC reasons, I never post pictures of my family members, our vehicles, our house, our livestock, or our ranch. In past years, we had some undesirable contacts with stalkers, so we were forced to go “down periscope.” Given the nature of my blog, this heightened privacy posture is a must, for our personal safety. But here is what I can tell you about our lives, in a nutshell:

We live year-round at a ranch west of the Rockies, inside the American Redoubt.

The ranch is less than 100 acres, but it is surrounded by public land. This provides the ultimate “big backyard” for hunting and cutting firewood. To heat our home, we burn mainly Red Fir and Western Larch. (The latter is commonly called Tamarack, although technically it isn’t.) On the ranch and within just a couple of miles of it, there is truly a lifetime supply of both varieties–either dead-fallen or dead-standing.

The ranch is fully fenced and cross-fenced. About half of it is sub-irrigated and provides excellent pasture. We raise dairy cattle and small livestock, we keep poultry, we have dozens of fruit and nut trees, and we have a very large fenced garden with extra-tall posts for our deer fence. The majority of my time is spent writing, editing and ranch chores, but I assist my wife with her dairying, cheese, butter and yogurt making, as well as dehydrating, freezing, and canning the bounty from our land. The majority of my wife’s time is spent homeschooling our kids. We homeschool using the classical model.

Our ranch is nearly 30 miles from the nearest town. That can be inconvenient, at times. The area is quite scenic, but we live at fairly low elevation so we enjoy a reasonably-long growing season. A river passes through the back end of the property.

We have a three year stored food supply that could easily be extended to serve us for much longer when supplemented with butchered livestock, wild game, wild huckleberries, and our garden produce.

We don’t live in a bunker or in any sort of multi-family compound. Nor do we live at the idealized level of self-sufficiency and preparedness that is portrayed in my novels.

We faithfully attend a local Christian church that maintains Reformed distinctives. Our church supports a large number of missionaries. We also independently help support a Christian mission school in rural Zambia.

Two years ago, just a year after the untimely passing of my wife Linda (“The Memsahib“), I married a lovely young outdoorsy widow, who in the blog is called “Avalanche Lily.” She had been widowed for several years, and already had children of her own. Our family is now quite large with children ranging from grade school age to college age. All of our children have been and will continue to be exclusively home schooled through the 12th grade.

We don’t own a television, nor do we want one. We enjoy an eclectic mix of music, primarily via iTunes. We have a nearly a dozen shortwave radios, many of which are transformerless AC-DC All-American Five designs. (International shortwave listening has been one of my passions since I was in junior high school.) One nice thing about our locale is that we are in an electromagnetic quiet zone. This makes for outstanding shortwave and AM DXing.

At the ranch we primarily use MURS band radios for intrusion detection (with a Dakota Alert), our everyday chores, hiking, horseback riding, and hunting. We also have 2 meter, 6 meter, and HF rigs. Several family members are licensed ham radio operators, but you won’t find us in any of the ham callsign databases like QRZ.com.

For our privacy, I selected a Vonage telephone number with a 510 prefix. That is a prefix normally associated with Northern California. That phone prefix often confuses mass media reporters and my consulting clients. (We don’t live in California.)

Also for our privacy, we have our mail forwarded from a post office box in Moyie Springs, Idaho. We don’t live anywhere near there. This address is often a source of confusion. I regularly get e-mails from readers, mentioning that they will be “passing through” Moyie Springs, and saying that they’d like to meet me for lunch or dinner. That would be a very long drive for me!

We do our best to lead a quiet, humble, Christ-centered life. Living in the hinterboonies has its drawbacks, but we wouldn’t trade it for anything in the world. We are never moving back to the suburbs!

Recipe of the Week:

Wiley’s Chuckwagon Pecan Pie Recipe

Here’s a ranch favorite I love to take to potlucks and calf-ropings. No one has a clue that it’s main ingredient is Pinto Beans!

            1 C mashed pinto beans (cooked, unseasoned and well done)
            2 C sugar
            4 eggs
            1/4 lb butter
            2 tbs molasses or dark corn syrup
            2 tsp vanilla
            1/2 tsp salt
 
Cream sugar and butter. Add well beaten eggs, molasses, and salt. Beat in well-mashed beans (that have been cooked, unseasoned and well done.) Pour into an unbaked pie shell. Pecans may be sprinkled on top before baking. Bake at 350 F until firm. It’s easy and delicious!  Happy Trails!

 

Useful Recipe and Cooking Links:

Howard G. mentioned that there is a great list of Old Cooking Definitions and Temperature Equivalents available at the Preparedness Advice Blog web site.

Do you have a favorite recipe that you have tested extensively? Then please e-mail it to us for posting. Thanks!

Economics and Investing:

Monty Pelerin: Europe Will Trigger U.S.

Frantically spending and monetizing, to delay the collapse: Debt Up $1.59 Trillion Under GOP House—More in 15 Months than First 97 Congresses Combined

Greek Exit From Euro Seen Exposing Deposit-Guaranty Flaws

The end game of global leveraged debt – double-digit percentage point market declines in Europe and Japan and the danger of refinancing debt with longer term debt.

Over at TF Metals Report: Getting Real, Real Fast

‘Beware a rerun of the Great Panic of 2008’: Head of World Bank warns Europe is heading for ‘danger zone’

Items from The Economatrix:

Oil Set For Biggest Monthly Drop in Three Years on Debt Crisis

Jobs Data Points to Recovery Losing Momentum

Gold Poised for Worst Monthly Run in 13 Years on European Crisis

Moody’s Downgrades Nine Danish, Three Finnish Banks and Lenders

Odds ‘n Sods:

Thomas B. sent this amazingly informative graphic of the United States: 56 Years of Tornado Tracks. Once again, the American Redoubt region stands out as a true safe haven. (Note that the scale of the tracks is exaggerated and made more linear than actually occurred.)

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Seed for Security has announced a special promotion: A free pint of Winter Rye (approximately 13,280 seeds), and a free packet of Provider Green Beans (approximately 150 seeds), will be added free to every order over $45. This offer is available for only a limited time.

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Why American Riots Will Be The Worst In The World

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Chris G. mentioned an emerging threat that is documented over at Redstate: One Metric on Impact: SWATting.

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The latest on CISPA (Commonly called “Son of SOPA.”) SurvivalBlog readers in the U.S. are encouraged to contact your elected representatives to ask them to oppose this monstrous legislation.

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Rescued Idaho puppy turns out to be a wolf. JWR’s Comments: In case you are wondering, Ketchum is not a typical Idaho town. Rather, it is a resort town that is undergoing Aspenization and that is peopled primarily by rich out-of staters. Apparently Ketchum has a surplus of sympathy for predators and a shortage of shovels and common sense.

Note From JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 41 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. B.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and E.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 41 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

When Push Comes to Shotgun: Survival in the Suburbs, by Michael K.

To anyone who swatches the news or opens up an internet browser from time to time, it’s exceedingly clear that the world is becoming an extremely dangerous place.  From the abstract threats such as global economic collapse or pandemic to the more concrete ideas of natural catastrophes, terrorist attacks and the like, it’s obvious that preparedness isn’t just something to think about occasionally, it’s an absolute necessity.  Yet, with our feet firmly planted in the middle class, my wife and I don’t exactly have the money to go out and build the fortified bunker of our dreams for the day when, inevitably, life as we know it here in America may take a turn for the worse.  We’ve had to adapt our game plan to match both our materials and our means.  And let me tell you, preparing for disaster smack dab in the middle of the suburban wasteland is a completely different ball game.

So, to start off, I think we should have a little history about me and my situation.  I grew up in the mountains of northeastern Tennessee, deep in the heart of Dixie.  In rural Appalachia, self-sustainable living and prepping are just normal parts of everyday life for a lot of people, and my family was no exception.  Hunting, fishing, gardening, canning food, etc. were pretty much the norm in our area, and served as a means for people in a fairly poor economic region to build both a comfortable life for themselves and a little peace of mind.  On top of that, the mountainous terrain of the southern back country offers great protection from a lot of natural disasters (tornados, flooding, etc.) and isolation from most of the rest of the American populace should widespread civil unrest occur.  In short, though I didn’t realize it at the time, I was born and raised in a prepper’s paradise.  Then, against all odds, I found a beautiful woman who loved me back and we’ve been building a life together for the last 12 years.

However, once we got married, we joined the world of corporate America in order to be able to make the kind of living that we wanted for ourselves in the “new” economy.  Unfortunately, our company underwent some “consolidation” and shut down the office in our hometown.  My wife and I (who both work for the same business) were tasked with a choice:  both face unemployment and risk becoming part of the foreclosure statistics on American home owners, or follow our jobs and move far from friends and family out into the Midwest.  It wasn’t an easy decision, but with the prospect of starting a family of our own right around the corner, there was no choice but to bite the bullet and take a chance on building a better life.  With only a three month window to find and purchase a new home, we ended up settling in a large subdivision on the outskirts of a major metropolitan area near our new place of employment.

Back in Tennessee, our home was a two story brick house with a sizable basement, snuggled into the side of a heavily wooded mountain.  However, due to the higher prices of real estate in our new area, we ended up in a single story wood-framed house built onto a concrete slab, surrounded by hundreds of nearly identical homes.  We are less than 10 miles from one of the largest cities in the continental United States, and to make matters worse, our home is actually visible from one of the major interstates that feed into the city.  In other words, like most of Middle America, my new house is a nightmare in terms of survivability should any major collapse of society occur.  Yet, for that very reason, immediately bugging out during a time of crisis is not an option, due to some of the following factors:

  • Living near a major population center means that when food/water/electricity go into short supply, everyone is going to have the same idea: get out of Dodge.
  • The major roadways around our home become near parking lots during rush hour every day as it is.  In a disaster, those traffic pileups are likely to become semi-permanent.
  • Since a lot of people in large cities don’t commute via cars, during the mass exodus to escape, those who do have working transportation will become immediate targets.
  • Furthermore, like the swarm of locusts of Biblical lore, a large group of people trying to flee an area on foot are likely to consume every resource in their path, one way or another.  While they may not have cars, it’s extremely likely that whether it’s a golf club or a Glock, some will be armed.

Therefore, for all these reasons and more, a more nuanced approach is required.  As much as we would like to, getting back to friends and family in the mountains of Tennessee just probably won’t be an option in the short term.  This means bugging in and hoping to ride out the worst of it until such a time that either:

  • We deem the situation fit to travel via the back roads and reach a more defensible location back home with our families.

Or,

  • The turmoil in our area has cooled to a point that we can start trying to become self-sustainable here in our community without fear of reprisal (openly gardening, hunting, fishing, etc.)

Either way, the name of the game becomes surviving the short term fallout that is bound to follow any collapse of basic societal structure.  Following Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs, it becomes pretty easy to map out the way that things will probably play out.  Our lives, like it or not, are ruled by this chart.  Surviving the “exodus” near a major city means two things:  Having the basics in the bottom row of that pyramid covered for up to a 6-month time period for you and your family and having the means to defend it from those who will want to take it from you.  However, there are unique challenges to achieving either of these goals when living in a matchstick house on a concrete block amidst hundreds of other families and within spitting distance of millions of potentially hostile people.

Let’s start with the first part, meeting your needs.  There are plenty of preparation checklists out there with great advice on every little thing that you might need to survive the apocalypse.  I’m going to assume that you know how to cover the basics of food/water/medicine storage.  However, there are a few extra things to consider when living in the suburbs.  Basic bunker mentality for bugging in during a crisis follows the “dig in and defend” model.  We’ll call this the tortoise approach.  That’s great if you have the means to make it work, however, there’s nothing particularly defensible about many people’s homes, mine included, so that mentality has to change.  For me it has become “avoid detection and deter”.  My home doesn’t have a basement, a bunker, or a safe room, so the idea of holing up in a fortified spot with enough firepower to hold off the mob just isn’t feasible.  Instead, I want to present a small target and make it as unappetizing to potential looters as possible.  Think less snapping turtle, more porcupine.

Back to Maslow’s handy dandy pyramid of preparedness priorities, we know that water is the number one driving force of human survival behavior.  Once the taps stop running and the Aquafina has flown off the shelves, it will be a matter of a few short days before people either leave their homes in search of greener pastures (lakes, rivers, etc.) or start to beg, borrow, plead, and potentially kill to take water from those who still have it.  Here are some things to remember about water storage in the ‘burbs.

  • Diversify your storage.  Like the old adage says, don’t keep all your eggs in one basket (this includes brands, types of containers, and storage locations).
  • You should try to have at least 100 potential gallons per person in your house at any given time, and stored in a variety of places around your home.
  • Keep emergency water containers clean, dry, and ready to be filled at a moment’s notice.
  • My solutions include:

It’s been said over and over, but it is the truest statement in this world: water is life.  Storing water in this way, even if a portion of my home becomes damaged or inaccessible, I’ll still have enough to survive the short term and reevaluate the situation.  Eventually, though, even the largest supplies will run dry.  In this case, you need to be able to answer these questions:

  • Where is my nearest source of clean water (stream, river, large lake, etc.)?
  • Is it easily reachable by foot, under cover of darkness?
  • If not, how likely am I to be able to reach it by car?
  • Do I have an easy way to transport it back to my home?
  • Can I protect myself during this process?
  • Do I have some way to make sure it’s safe (boiling, filters, water treatments, etc.)?

Next on the list comes food storage, and this is another topic that is covered ad nauseam in any number of preparedness web sites and books.  But the important thing to remember for our purposes is that not only do you need to have food, but you need to not draw attention to the fact that you have food.  Nothing brings uninvited guests to the party quite like the smell of fresh beef stew when they haven’t eaten a thing in weeks.  In fact, they’re likely to bring their own silverware if you catch my drift.  Here are some ways to keep that from happening:

  • Avoid storing foods that have to be cooked in an open container or that put off a strong or unique odor.
  • Avoid heating methods that produce smoke or have to be ventilated in any way.
  • Don’t store foods that require much, if any, water to prepare.  Water is going to be your number one resource; you can’t waste a drop that you don’t have to.
  • Try to cut down on trash as much as possible (i.e. large resealable containers as opposed to individually packaged and disposable containers).  Trash has to be disposed of at some point and is a clear indicator that someone is still taking the wrappers off of candy bars.
  • Keep calorie intake healthy, but to a minimum.  Being the only guy in the neighborhood who still has a double chin is another red flag.
  • Don’t use a generator for any reason, ever.  In an isolated location, with proper noise reduction and ventilation, it’s a viable choice.  But nothing says “come burn my house down and take my stuff” like being the one family that has electricity when the darkness comes.

The whole goal here is to fly under the radar as much as possible.  Shelf stable foods that don’t have to be cooked at all are ideal.  Think mixed nuts, dry cereals, beef jerky, and the like.  These types of foods are also much more convenient to transport and prepare should you have to bail out.  Self-heating MREs are also a fantastic option but do require water to prepare and are easy to get burnt out on after a while.  While it’s no fun to have very few fresh hot meals, survival in the midst of the fleeing hordes revolves around avoiding notice at all costs.  You may not be happy, but you’ll be alive.

The last piece of the puzzle is the hardest, but also the most important: defense.  A quiet, middle-class suburb is a pretty appetizing target to people in a desperate search for the basic necessities of life.  All of the supplies in the world won’t mean a thing if you can’t defend them.  However, the key is to not to attract any unnecessary notice and to make your home an inadvisable target.  Some potential tools for getting this job done include:

  • Door Crossbar Holders:  These can be installed quickly during a time of chaos with nothing but a cordless drill, some heavy duty wood screws, and some spare 2x4s.  Putting up at least two sets per door means that the old police trick of “kick and breach” won’t be quite so easy.  It also stops the more subtle “lockpick in the night” routine.  Remember, the goal here isn’t to make the entryway impregnable (which is nigh impossible in a wood and drywall home), but rather to buy some time to defend.
  • Biohazard Signs:  If pandemic is the trigger that starts the collapse, one of these signs on each door is tantamount to installing an invisible force field around your home.  Even if it’s something more plausible, like a global economic collapse, looters are much more likely to target the house that they think won’t give them cholera.
  • Window Privacy Film:  It’s ok for people to know that your home is still occupied.  In fact, an abandoned house is far more likely to be ransacked than one that is thought to still be defended.  Letting people pinpoint your exact location before an attack, however, could cost you your life.  With this upgrade (along with normal blinds/curtains) you can still use lanterns, headlamps, etc. without giving away where you’ve chosen to bed down.
  • Window Bars:  Again, the keys here are speed/ease of installation and deterrence.  You don’t need to protect your windows from a full SWAT team with breaching charges, just dehydrated, half-starved city folks looking for some free supplies.  These bars give you time to line up a clear shot from behind cover and make sure that the person trying to get in realizes the risk vs. the reward.

It’s also important to designate a small fallback area within your home and use this as the staging area for everything else you do.  This way if part of your home becomes compromised it’s not a total loss.  While your “Alamo” may not be a fortress, it should be a place with as few windows and doors as possible and a clear field of fire.   Ours is the large master bathroom with an attached walk-in closet.  The only window in the bathroom is small, octagonal, made of thick frosted glass, and about 8 feet off the ground.  Once things look to be turning south, all our supplies can be quickly moved to the closet, the bathroom door triple barred, and the window filmed over.  The two Mossberg pump action 12 Gauge shotguns with 500+ magnum slug shells that live in the closet provide the “deter” portion of the game plan.

Finally, if possible, it’s also great to have a “plan C” just in case.  If your home catches fire, is completely overrun, or for some other reason becomes uninhabitable, you may have to leave in a hurry.  Fortunately for us, there is attic access in both the walk-in closet and our garage, with only about 20 feet of crawlspace between the two.  Hiding a couple of bug-out backpacks in the crawlspace allows us a fairly covert escape route directly to the car, or at the very least, out of the house.  Planning everything needed to bail out and stay safe on the run in a completely different topic in and of itself, but just keep in mind that bug-out supplies are similar to bug-in supplies, just on a much smaller, more mobile scale.  It’s not a perfect scenario, but having a “last ditch effort” retreat solution is never a bad thing. 

At the end of the day, I think it’s very feasible to sit tight and ride out the initial panic of any major catastrophe, even in a less than fortified location.  When the lights go out and the trucks stop running, places in and around major cities are going to revert to the Wild West fairly quickly.  But it’s for that very reason that staying put is the best option.  When the world around you is chaos, there are too many things that can go wrong by stepping out into the maelstrom, even if the goal is getting to a safer location.  It’s hard to predict exactly how things will go down and Murphy’s Law will bite you on the butt any time you think you’ve got it all figured out.  In any event, by keeping a low profile, deterring looters if possible, and using force if necessary, I think that we suburbanites stand a pretty good chance of making it through the first few months of TEOTWAWKI relatively unscathed.  And that, my friends, is what it is all about.