Economics and Investing:

Doug Casey Answers The Hard Questions About Hard Times

The latest economics animation by Omid Malekan is great: Inflation Explained. (The closing line was priceless: “In a world where cartoon bears on YouTube are the most reliable source of information, anything is possible.”)

A bit of confirmation for one of my predictions in 2005 that was then called “alarmist”: No Rise in Home Prices until 2020: Bankers

Items from The Economatrix:

“Massive Jobs Shortfall” Predicted For Global Economy

Fed Dissenter Says Latest Step Won’t Help The Economy

Cash Is King No More, Gold Reigns

Financial “Cataclysm” To Come; Gold To Unimaginable Levels

Odds ‘n Sods:

From October 3rd through October 5th, Ready Made Resources is offering a 25% discount on case lots of Mountain House storage foods and free shipping. They will also include a free copy of my novel “Survivors” with any orders over $500. (This also includes food packages.)

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I coined the term UAV-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (UAVIED) five years ago, in anticipation of a new terrorist threat. Unfortunately, my prediction has come true: Massachusetts Man Plotted to Blow Up Pentagon, U.S. Capitol Using Model Plane, Feds Say. (Thanks to Joey G. for the link.)

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Stock up! The price of PB&J is going up

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The folks at Directive 21 recently added Tattler reusable canning lids to their line. They keep them stocked for immediate delivery.

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I was recently interviewed on The Prepper Podcast as well as on the EMPAct America show. Both interviews should soon be available as podcasts.

Notes from JWR:

A reminder that next Tuesday (October 4th) is Book Bomb Day for my new novel “Survivors”. If you have a blog of your own, brief mentions of the book release with links to my Writings Page would be greatly appreciated. Please wait until Tuesday to place your order. That way the book will have a better chance of climbing up to the Top 20 in Amazon.com’s overall sales ranking. Thanks!

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Today we present the last two entries for Round 36 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $300 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo, and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, C.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and D.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, and C.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 36 ends on September 30th. A few articles received in the last few days of the contest will be “rolled over”, for posting in the next round, because of space constraints.

Family Planning WTSHTF, by N.S.

Everyone wants to be able to take care of the family When The Schumer Hits The Fan (WTSHTF).  We have all read dozens of articles about how to garden, store food, keep seeds, protect our homes, and generally go about the living of life day-to-day.  We’ve heard the mantra: Life after the TSHTF is not for the faint of heart, nor the easily-grossed-out.  We’ve also seen a few that go into detail on how to prepare medically for disaster.  While all of us will be working hard to provide for our families and keep them safe, we also need to be concerned about something less-often talked about:  family planning when there is no hormonal birth control, and prophylactics are scarce.  Heaven knows,  when TSHTF, you and your existing family will be busy adjusting to your new life, and may not be ready to welcome a new bundle of joy before your local area stabilizes. 

The dangers of unexpected or poorly planned pregnancies in a situation where medical facilities and options will be extremely limited cannot be ignored.  Communities may have no real medical expertise, and certainly, without anesthetic, a cesarean section won’t be a terribly pleasant or successful affair.  A woman who has had problem pregnancies in the past will most likely continue to have problem pregnancies.  If you suspect your partner will have a problem pregnancy, or if she’s had one before, extra care must be taken to consider the time and place of birth: for example, temporarily moving to the area closest to the best medical personnel available.  

Another oh-so-fun factor to consider is the very real possibility of being due mid-winter, when snow might be high, and travel difficult.  Families may want to consider planning the children they want to be born in the fall or in the spring or summer, rather than mid-winter, just so that if there is a semi-competent medical person in the vicinity, they can get there in time without being side-lined by a blizzard.  It’s not very likely that the county will be out snow-plowing and salting all the roads, right?  This is not to say, of course, that all pregnancies will end in disaster, of course.  Most of the time, with most women, the pregnancy and birth will probably go just fine.
 Aside from the risk inherent in pregnancy and childbirth itself, however, there are other reasons why planning for pregnancy is important.  There are implications for a woman’s health after the baby is born, her family’s health, and even to some extent, the health of the community itself. 

Families will probably need to be bigger than the “typical” American size of 2.5 children as a matter of necessity.  Where food is scarce, and farm labor is the mainstay of food production, it will be a blessed family that has four or five children to help out.  More importantly, though, a family needs the children well-spaced, so that there is time for the mother to recuperate in between pregnancies. For the preservation of her health, a mother should probably not have more than one child every two or three years.  This is because of the time it will take to recover from the pregnancy, birth, and the first year or two of infancy.  Remember, when TSHTF the baby will need to be breastfed, like it or not, because home-made formula is not a smart option if there is any alternative.  Babies should be breastfed for a minimum of 1 year, but ideally, it should be closer to two years, especially in areas where food or medical aid is scarce.  Breastfeeding beyond a year may be the difference between life and death for a young child after TSHTF. 

A woman who is worn-out from having a baby every year most likely will have difficulty helping with every-day tasks, let alone trying to manage the hard daily living of farm-work, gardening, and putting food on the table when there is no such thing as convenience food.  She might be fine for three or four years, but just try safely focusing on gardening, housework, and making food– possibly over a fire or wood-burning stove with five under-five-year-old children running under foot.  Some of those babies aren’t going to make it, and you’ll end up with tiny graves in your plot.  If that thought isn’t appealing to you, you need to start considering your options now.

Beyond your own household, though, there may be other factors to consider.  In a smaller community which depends on its members helping each other out, it would be a pretty uncomfortable state of affairs if most of the women in a community end up pregnant all at once.  It would be very difficult for women to help each other with, say, labor, or childcare if they’re all in need of help themselves.  There are some tasks that are just not safe with a baby in tow, and women may need to trade tasks.  In addition, can you imagine if there are only one or two people in a community who are even remotely comfortable attending births, and there are three or four women in labor or about to go into labor?  If even one of them has complications, the others might be out of luck when it comes to having someone experienced on hand to help out. 

Now, I’m not saying all the families in a community should be drawing lots for the right to get pregnant, of course.  Far from it.  But coordination among women or families isn’t at all a fanciful idea, and may be the difference between having adequate help in the first few weeks or days or being completely on your own.  It’s a small enough consideration to hold off on a pregnancy for six months to a year to space babies between families so not everyone is dealing with the squalling of an infant at all hours of the night at the same time. 
For families without the knowledge or supplies for family planning, purposeful spacing most likely won’t be possible.  I firmly believe that children are gifts from God, and that He is the one that engenders new life.  On the other hand, I also believe that God expects us to be reasonable and moderate, and use all the (morally acceptable) tools at our disposal to prepare and take care of our families.  In contemporary society, many God-fearing families still depend on hormonal birth control (“the pill”) or IUDs, condoms, diaphragms, cervical cups, et cetera, to help manage child spacing and family size.  While those families can plan ahead a certain extent and stockpile extra supplies, they won’t last forever.  Stockpiles containing latex items, like condoms and diaphragms face serious storage issues.  Latex is extremely sensitive to heat, cold, and light.  Without climate control, they won’t be nearly effective enough to be reliable in preventing pregnancy past a summer or two   Stores are not even required to notify the purchaser if they’ve improperly stored them, so even in perfectly storing new condoms in your stockpile, you are not guaranteed a “good” lot that will last for many years.  Hormonal birth control is no joke, either.   Even if you could store more than a year or so worth of pills, just because something works now, doesn’t mean it will continue to work– and there are serious health risks to unmonitored hormone usage.  Or you could get stuck with a stockpile of mis-packaged pills, like the batch that was just recalled.  In the event that manufacturing of these supplies ceases and distribution dwindles, alternatives will need to be explored.

So, then, if “conventional” methods are unavailable, what options are you left with?
I’m sure we’ve all heard the “sex-ed” talk about different kinds of birth control, and heard how ineffective the “pull-out” and “rhythm” method are in comparison to the standard industrialized hormonal and physical barriers are.  The bad news is that the talk is right:  those methods probably won’t help for long, and are pretty unreliable in any case.  The good news is that those are not the only options after TSHTF. 

You may know that in the animal kingdom, God designed most animals so that they come into “season” or “heat”  at most two times a year.  What you may not know is that although human beings are fertile all year round, women actually have been designed with seasons too, though the human fertility cycle runs on a monthly, not yearly, basis. Everyone knows about “that time of the month”.  Not everyone knows that there are other, equally important parts to the human fertility cycle that are predictable, observable, and measurable.   With the aid of something to write on and a writing instrument, you can use these observable and measurable signs on a day to day basis to determine the fertile and infertile portions of a given cycle.   Using the knowledge of which part of the cycle she’s in on a given day, a couple can choose to avoid or achieve pregnancy.  This practice is called Natural Family Planning (NFP) or fertility awareness. 

There is over half a century of solid research underpinning the science of understanding, and the art of working with the human fertility cycle instead of against it.  You may have heard someone mention NFP or fertility awareness and dismissed it as a “glorified rhythm method”.  Unfortunately, if they’ve even ever heard of it, your doctor may have reinforced that notion.   The average American’s understanding of NFP is severely flawed,  and influenced heavily by the pharmaceutical industry’s consistent downplaying and misinformation campaign aimed squarely at your doctor.  By deciding to either abstain from or engage in sexual activity, on any given day, the method can be used to achieve or avoid/postpone pregnancy.  The best part is that NFP is actually just as effective as any form of hormonal birth control, with an effectiveness rating of 98% to 99%.  Even women with irregular menstrual cycles can reliably use NFP to achieve/avoid pregnancy.  It’s more effective than a condom or a diaphragm.  It’s free, and perpetual.  Once you know NFP, you can use it for the rest of your reproductive life without any adverse side effects, and you can teach it to your children when they get married.  You can’t “run out” of NFP.  It can even help couples who are having difficulty with trying to get pregnant, so it works both ways. 

There are several “flavors” of NFP, ranging from the simple to the fairly complex.  Whichever method you choose to learn, it’s important that you do not wait to start learning.  I strongly urge couples to start investigating this most basic of knowledge before TSHTF so that they can be prepared. While anyone can learn NFP (and I do mean anyone), learning it is akin to learning how to ride a bike, swim, or shoot.  You will have to learn about it, do it, and practice some more before you feel fully comfortable.  After TSHTF is not the time to try and figure it out on your own.  You don’t learn to swim when you fall out of the boat, and you don’t learn to shoot when you’re going hunting for the first time.

It’s best that, if at all possible, you find a teacher that can help you learn the symptoms and help you learn to reliably interpret your cycles.  It’s important to remember that NFP is not something that a woman is solely responsible for.  For NFP to work, the couple must be in agreement, and communicate on a daily basis. Once your understanding is firmly established, the effort that goes into observing, and charting is virtually unnoticed.  It will feel like a natural extension of your relationship with your spouse, and will have some interesting fringe benefits.  A key point to remember is that, although in the beginning it may seem daunting, the process is quite simple. Really, if you can learn to tie your shoes, you can learn NFP.  I promise.

There is nothing you need to stockpile for it other than something to write on and something to write with and perhaps if you are so inclined, a book or two for reference and teaching your children when the time comes for them to learn about the birds and bees.  You might consider getting certified to teach NFP to other couples through an association like the Couple-to-Couple League.  You can use the training to teach the other families in your community in case they didn’t prepare.  You might also seriously consider obtaining a supply of glass thermometers (instead of the digital, battery-powered kind) for several reasons.  Some of the NFP methods rely on cross-checking body temperature with the other signs.  Equally, though, if you want to be able to determine someone’s temperature to, say, check if they’re getting an infection from a wound or childbirth or a viral illness, a thermometer is important.  The old glass-mercury thermometers are generally not available [new] in the US, but alternatives do exist.  Glass thermometers are more accurate than digital, and have several other advantages:  no batteries to run down, no need for re-calibration after just a few years, they can be sterilized, and they might make a good trade-item later. 

Although God is the only real arbiter of new life, and all our plans are subject to Him, the  knowledge  of our fertility cycles gives us the ability to discern our actions.  Our families do not need to be beholden to pharmaceutical companies to “help” us control our God-given fertility.  When TSHTF, you don’t have to be afraid of the specter of more children than you can manage, or your wife  getting pregnant when it would seriously endanger her health.  You can learn how to work with a woman’s natural cycle to plan your family safely, reliably, effectively, and cheaply.

For more information:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertility_awareness
http://www.creightonmodel.com/
http://www.nfpandmore.org/
http://www.ccli.org/nfp/
http://www.armenianchurchlibrary.com/files/nfpmethods.pdf 

Thinking About Weapons, by Jon W.

“Just think–it may be a new experience.”  For many of us “just thinking” may indeed be a new experience if it means making TEOTWAWKI survival choices purposefully and rationally,  We need to apply that quote and really think before deciding what and how much to buy as part of our survival plan. This is especially true when it comes to choosing firearms because they are our primary survival weapons.

Calm and logical thought processes are vital to selecting tools key to surviving in an “end of the world as we know it” scenario.  But the advice many give about selecting firearms seems to suggest shortsighted, poorly researched decision-making processes that waste resources.  Sometimes I am amazed and even dismayed by some of the choices “preppers” make about the type, quality, and quantity of their weapons.

In general, prepping for survival presents us with the worst possible dilemma:  Having to prepare for the unknown.  We don’t know exactly what a crisis is going to be, when it will happen, how serious it will be, or how long it will last.  Nevertheless we must prepare.  The old saw goes that we should “prepare for the worst and hope (pray) for the best.”

This tool, of all the of  thousands of weapons available in America today, should be the one most capable of providing a reliable, effective, general purpose weapon that will put meat on the table and prevent the survivalist–and those who depend on him from becoming . . . meat on the table.  You need a force multiplier, the one weapon you will grab when SHTF time comes to help you survive for however long and through whatever happens.  

And you must be able to feed it, clean it, and fix it, for however long the storm lasts.  

This is the gun you will grab from the ready rack when the alarm sounds that “Charlie is in the wire!”  This is not choosing what tie to wear to work today.   It is not “Oh my!  We are under attack.  Let’s see, what shall it be today, my AK has a lovely camouflage paint job that matches my Cabela’s camouflage jump suit, but my AR-7 .22 is so much lighter and convenient to carry.  Decisions, decisions.”  We are talking about having a weapon and web gear loaded and ready for instant action to defend your life. 

There is no “perfect” weapon that will do everything for everyone in every situation.  Is that Mosin-Nagant really your first choice?  If not, what are you doing with it?

It would be wonderful if someone invented a gun that can knock an elephant down every time with one shot but has no recoil.  How about a gun that has a hundred round magazine, but weighs just ounces.  A gun small enough to conceal but with thousand yard match accuracy and costing less than a hundred dollars.  It just ain’t hapnin’ any time soon.  So whatever weapon you choose is going to be a compromise. This compromise should be based upon your well thought out and researched evaluation of all of your perceived conditions of use.  

There are several factors to be considered.   They include but are not limited to the following:   Who will be using the gun?  There is no doubt that the Smith & Wesson .500 Magnum is a quality and formidable weapon, but it probably isn’t an ideal choice for the average sixteen year old girl.  Where will the weapon be used?  Your weapon choices might differ depending on locale, an urban setting versus a desert or mountainous region, and so on.     

A “lone wolf” with no dependents to worry about may make choices without considering their effect on anyone else.  If, however, you are a member of a group or family unit then there are several things to consider that may influence your decision.  

In a group situation (as pointed out in the novel “Patriots”) selecting a single weapons platform that everyone carries has distinct advantages. Having all weapons fire the same ammunition, use the same magazines, share the same operating system, and use the same spare parts simplifies logistics, training, and support functions.  So the weapon of choice should be one everyone in the group will be able to manage and accurately fire down range.  Remember, every weapon put on the line can be a force multiplier that may mean the difference between life and death for members of your group.  

The ability to carry substantial quantities of ammunition is an obvious plus, as there is no telling when you will be able to restock.  Thirty round magazines are a very good thing.  There is no greater pucker factor in combat than realizing your weapon is between “empty and walk” and you now have to disengage long enough to reload. The fewer number times you are forced to reload the better, and that means carrying more rounds.  

The .308/7.62×51 is a great round but twice the weight of a .223/5.56, so for the same weight allocation, with the former you can only carry half as many rounds. The 12 Gauge round, for example, is heavy, bulky, and decidedly short on range.  Close in the 12 Gauge is a real stopper, but if the zombies are in range, so are you!  I personally don’t plan on letting anyone get within shotgun range in a SHTF situation.   Not when there is a better choice.

The 5.56 is powerful enough for both thin-skinned game and defense and pound for pound arguably provides the best bang for your buck. I simply don’t understand how or why someone could logically choose any weapon platform over the AR for defense, at least not here in the United States.  I would no doubt choose an AK if I lived in the former U.S.S.R., but I don’t.  

More than twelve million ARs are in civilian hands in the United States.  This doesn’t count those held by law enforcement, the National Guard or Army Reserve, and the active military.  There is more .223/5.56 ammunition in this country that any other caliber except .22 Long Rifle.  There are more spare parts, more accessories and more people trained specifically on the AR platform than on any other weapon.  

Buying anything other than an AR platform weapons system in the U.S. would be like buying Nitrous Oxide-assisted powered Lamborghini while living in Alaska.  It will look cool, until the snow falls, but where are you going to get fuel, where do you find parts, and who’s going to work on it?

The concept of a “survival arsenal” completely escapes me.  I like guns, I have lots of guns, but they are not all part of my survival plans.  Most of them will go into a hole until “normal” returns.  In a SHTF situation I can’t imagine having enough time to deal with all of those guns?   If they are not already in a hole they are going to be left behind for the bad guys.  Understand that in a true SHTF, “end of the world as we know it” situation, you are going to be “married” to your survival weapon 24/7. Get caught without it and you may not get another chance.  Under what circumstances are you planning on putting down that nasty old AR or AK with the thirty round magazine and picking up your trusty Mosin-Nagant tent peg?  I believe in charity and having good trading material could provide a way of filling in holes in your prepping inventory, but is it really a good idea to trade weapons and ammunition that could be used to kill you and yours, to people who didn’t even have the common sense to buy a weapon before the SHTF? 

This concept of a “survival arsenal” seems to have started in the 1970s with [Mel Tappan,] one of the early “survivalist” writers. He was a stock broker who (to the best of my knowledge) never fired a shot in anger, retired to Oregon and then wrote a book.  I am no doubt committing some kind of sacrilege by criticizing this guy as he seems to be revered by most as some kind of Grand Poobah Guru of “survivalism,” but I just don’t think the guy had a clue.  He seems to have made this stuff up as he went along with no thought to the consequences of what he was advising.  

The lists of suggested firearms in his book are wonderful for a gun dealer’s retirement plan but a terrible waste of money, and almost unmanageable for a survivalist.  He points out (correctly) that you must store sufficient amounts of ammunition, and spare parts for each gun.  Then in his examples of “actual batteries I have helped clients to select” he recommends a survival battery for a couple (that’s two people) in their late thirties consisting of fifteen (15) different types of ammunition and thirty seven (37) different makes and models of firearms.  

The point here is that we are preparing for a worst case scenario where we may be forced to abandon everything we own except what we can carry. We are not opening a sporting goods store, and this is not a contest to see who can accumulate the most stuff.  How are you going to transport all of those guns, all of that ammunition and all of those spare parts in a “bug out”?  It would be an interesting exercise to figure out how much all those guns and the spare parts and just one thousand rounds of ammunition for each would weigh and cost in today’s dollars.  

If you really want an “extra” gun or are buying for friends or relatives who may show up, then buy another AR or whatever the rest of the group is carrying, and stock ammo and parts for it. Most of us have a limited income and are hard pressed to come up with the money for daily living costs while at the same time we try adding to our store of backup supplies   I have lots of stuff I really need to do more than trying to find and buy parts and ammunition for thirty seven different guns that I don’t need, can’t use, can’t bug out with, and don’t want to trade into the hands of morons who weren’t smart enough to buy their own when they had the chance.  Just a side note here, one of the “recommended” guns for this “survival battery” was a Perazzi over and under shotgun.  Are you kidding me?

If you had this “ideal” battery and were in the middle of a SHTF situation and decided to go hunting, would you leave your defensive gun at your retreat and take your bolt action scoped hunting rifle along?  What if you ran into a flock of Ducks? I guess we need to take along a shotgun too, just in case.  How many rounds of ammunition do you carry for these guns?  And what happens when while out hunting you are confronted by a group of aggressors?  Your force multiplier is at home in the rack and you are armed with what amounts to a single shot rifle and a shotgun with birdshot.  

Or do you pack your battle rifle and full combat load of ammunition, your scoped hunting rifle, and your shotgun along.  Then you use one of them to shoot a deer. Now you have 150 lbs of meat, three guns, and all but one round of ammunition to haul back to camp.  Sounds like fun to me.      

Everything you choose to carry with you in a bug out is a compromise.  It would be nice if we could each carry ten guns, twenty gallons of water, thousands of rounds of ammunition and food for a month, but unless you plan on bringing your pet elephant along to share the load, you are just going to have to make some, logical, tough, informed, well thought out choices.  

(Note; If I lived in big Bear country I might carry a slug or buckshot loaded shotgun. One of us will definitely be carrying a “stewpot gun”–say, a Ruger .22 pistol–for small game.)  

An example of choices to be make and another one of my unfathomables is some people’s fascination with handguns.  I have a Springfield Armory XD in .45 ACP, great gun.  However, the gun, plus forty rounds of ammunition in three magazines, magazine pouch, and a holster weighs four and one half pounds.  

Now, I can choose to carry that handgun or, for the same 4-½ pounds of weight, I can carry one hundred and seventy-five (175) extra rounds for my AR.  That’s either forty rounds of .45 ACP or 175 rounds of Green Tip Steel Core 5.56mm going down range. The same holds true for my wife’s AR, and the ARs of my two sons.  For those of you not keeping track that’s a total of seven hundred (700) extra rounds between the four of us in addition to our basic combat load in magazines versus a total of one hundred sixty rounds of pistol ammo.  Or better yet, eighteen pounds (18 lbs.) of whatever we want.  Can you say, “Duh?”

The bottom line here is to analyze your situation, research the weapons offered on the market today, read SurvivalBlog and any other legitimate source you can find, talk to “experts,” then buy the one weapon that you feel is the best tool, of the best quality, that you can afford.  Then buy all the ammunition, and spare parts you think you will ever need to keep it running, and perhaps even some lightweight accessories you might want to make your weapon truly “yours.”  

Learn to shoot it, clean it, and repair it until you know it like your own body. And then pray.

JWR’s Comments: The logic that you’ve employed is a bit fuzzy. To clarify a key point: Having different guns for different tasks does indeed make sense at home or at a fixed retreat. That is what Tappan was advocating. In his book Survival Guns, Tappan was not addressing “Bug Out ” situations. He was primarily explaining gun selection for fixed retreats. G.O.O.D. situation would give a completely different complexion , because of weight and space constraints. Only in situations where budget or transportability are overriding concerns is it crucial to simplify to just few guns or just one gun.

It is also noteworthy that Mel Tappan’s detailed “battery” recommendations in many cases were based on adjusting the lists of guns that his consulting clients already owned. Many of Tappan’s clients were wealthy. That explains the reference to the Perazzi shotgun.

There is indeed a temptation by gun enthusiasts to buy more guns than needed. And that is often at the expense of other very important preparations. (Food, fuel, commo gear, medical gear, et cetera.) That sort of over-indulgence is a mistake. But to over-simplify is also a mistake. An AR-15 is not the answer to every self defense and hunting situation and circumstance. As someone who lives in Grizzly Bear country, I can state forthrightly that reliance on just a cartridge that was originally designed for varmint hunting would be foolhardy. (This echoes a statement in your e-mail.) In sum, balance is key to preparedness.

Every family needs to tailor their firearms selections based upon their budget, their terrain, their local fauna, and the sorts of personal security risks that they envision for their locale. A family firearms battery for someone living on a rural ranch in the northern Great Plains would be substantially different than for someone living in a forested Eastern suburb. Concealability is also an issue for many folks, especially those living in areas where open carry is either restricted or where it is simply uncommon.

I will be addressing these issues in a book that I’m presently writing: Rawles on Guns and Other Tools for Self-sufficiency. I hope to complete that book in about 18 months.

Letter Re: U.S. Air Force Final Phase Out of BDU Uniforms

Jim,
Woodland pattern battle dress uniforms (BDUs) were phased out by the Army years ago, but the U.S. Air Force has allowed their personnel to wear them longer, even as they transitioned to other camo pattern uniforms.  Final BDU phase out for the Air Force is reported to be November 1st, 2011, so the availability of this used gear will continue to taper off, even in base thrift stores. 

Note that with two forms of identification, most Americans can access a base to visit a thrift store.  Military base thrift stores are usually operated as private, charitable organizations and have limited hours and days. – W.J.

Economics and Investing:

Chris Martenson: The Economy Is on The Ropes and Going Down–We are down to the wire in terms of time to prepare

Miek F. flagged this bit of Agenda 21-style nuttery: Gas Tax Should Yield to Mile Fee as Cars Evolve: James M. Whitty

Items from The Economatrix:

Tightening The Noose:  France Bans Cash Sales of Silver & Gold Over $600

Wall-Street Protestors:  Over-educated, Under-employed, Angry

Geithner Plan For Europe Last Chance For Catastrophe

Consumer Confidence Remains Weak In September

Stocks Rise For Third Day On Optimism About Europe

Odds ‘n Sods:

Once again, the American Redoubt shines, as a safe place to live: Firearm-related crimes interactive map.

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S.D. sent: Meet the Zetros: Apocalypse-Ready Motorhome

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Reader C.K. wrote to mention an illuminating article about the Red Dawn remake controversy: Libertas Sees the ‘Uncensored’ Version of MGM’s New Red Dawn

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G.G. was the first of several readers to send this: As Federal Crime List Grows, Threshold of Guilt Declines

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The Federal Reserve Plans to Identify “Key Bloggers” and Monitor Billions of Conversations. So not only does the NSA (a government agency) keep tabs on bloggers, but so will a new intelligence arm of a private banking cartel? Charming. (A tip of the hat to B.B. for the link.) OBTW, please don’t write me to claim that the Federal Reserve is an agency of the government. It isn’t. Ben Bernanke’s Band of Fools is no more “Federal” than Federal Express (FedEx) or Federal Cartridge Company.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Waking up at the start of the end of the world,
But it’s feeling just like every other morning before,
Now I wonder what my life is going to mean if it’s gone,
The cars are moving like a half a mile an hour
And I started staring at the passengers who’re waving goodbye
Can you tell me what was ever really special about me all this time?

I believe the world is burning to the ground
Oh well I guess we’re gonna find out
Let’s see how far we’ve come
Let’s see how far we’ve come

Well I believe it all is coming to an end
Oh well, I guess, we’re gonna pretend,
Let’s see how far we’ve come
Let’s see how far we’ve come.”

– Matchbox 20, Let’s See How Far We’ve Come. (Lyrics by Rob Thomas, Paul Doucette, Kyle Cook, and Brian Yale.)

Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 36 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $300 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo, and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, C.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and D.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, and C.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 36 ends on September 30th. Note there now isn’t room to post articles received in the last few days of the contest, so any received after today will be “rolled over”, for posting in the next round.

The Ice Walking Survival Stick, by Carmen G.

As we start to age, we have to compensate for arthritic knee joints, arthritis, and the inability to balance oneself on level ground, never mind walking on a wooded trail.  When finding myself in the situation of not being able to work as a Building Inspector, I decided to do something about it.  My problem was not being able to walk on uneven or ice-covered ground in order to inspect construction sites.  Those sites were the equivalent of an Appalachian trail minus the view in my mind.  My solution was to use a broken rake handle and insert a Philips head screwdriver with the handle ground down to fit into the hollow end of the handle,  thus presenting me with a pointed tip that resembled a very large ice pick with a five-foot long handle.  The tip was ground to an extremely sharp point and protruded out six inches from the bottom of the handle.  The idea was simple hold the stick with the point on the ice and walk by holding onto the slip proof staff.  The making of the ice stick just morphed into a great home project, by using materials that were just lying around the workshop looking for the right application.  By using material, that I had stored in the shop made my wife feel   like I was finally going to get rid of my stuff taking up room.  Her idea was that I would be making more room for her stuff in my space.  Ha , Ha! Thanks to many survival readers’ ideas and letters to survival blogs,   I was able to build new stuff out of old stuff and just wound up with different   stuff.  When   the last two major storms hit, my stuff proved necessary and practical: my wife has been quiet about that.  (I still check   the   trash cans for my stuff).  I do not expect that to last long but I believe I will survive her encroachment of her replacing her stuff where mine used to be.  By my warped thinking, she is investing her surplus stuff for use on my survival projects.

I started the ice stick by gathering the materials and finding the required hand tools under mountains of   hardware saved over the years.  All of the items were going to be projects someday and this was the day.  The first thing I picked up was a broken fiberglass rake handle that was cut off square at the bottom where the steel rake used to be.  The top already had a black plastic rubber handgrip on the end.  The length was ideal approximately 5’ long and the 1 ¼” diameter staff was made for the hand and it was strong enough to support my weight while leaning on it. 

In one survival handbook that I came across was a sketch of two Ice picks with the wood handles drilled through to attach corded loops.  This was done so that a gloved hand could slide through, grip the handles, and prevent the dropping of or losing the picks.  The purpose of the picks was to save yourself if you fell through thin ice and you could pull yourself out.  In addition to this, if you fell on the ice you were to lie flat (spread eagle) and by using the picks pull your way onto thicker ice.  With this in mind,  I decided to do the same thing with the walking stick.  Keep me upright in snow and on ice and having the ability to reach unto to the ice to test it.  The pick evolved into a large Philips head screwdriver, modified to serve this purpose.  Modifying the screwdriver was simple with a side grinder and a coarse sanding disk.  Take the screwdriver handle and sand the outer surface until it fits snugly into the bottom of the handle.  The next step was to drill through the fiberglass and plastic screwdriver handle (above the steel imbedded in the plastic) and through to the other side.  Then turn the handle until you are able to drill another hole an inch above the first one, then repeat the drilling again in the opposite direction.  After removing the burrs, push through each hole a 1/4″ stove bolt with a washer between the bolt head and the pipe.  When the bolt comes through the other side, complete  the connections  by capping each bolt with another washer, lock washer, and bolt cap.  For the top of the newly created “Ice Walking Stick”, I secured a Para cord wrap with a hand loop, enabling the user  to  grasp the stick with a gloved hand and not drop it on the ground or in the snow.  The idea was also to be able to reverse the pick end to a rounded plastic screwdriver handle for non- icy days.  

I was very happy with my walking stick and it had served me very well until I joined Mr. Charlie Richie’s family of survivalists and became a fan of Richie’s magazine, “The Backwoodsman”.  A month after I emailed my Ice walking stick illustration to one of my favorite web sites,  I picked up “The Backwoodsman Volume 32 No. 3, May / June issue.  On page 53, you will find the article “The Survival Walking Staff” by Raul Limon.  This article was the survival staff, minus the “Carmen Touches.”  After reading the article, I realized that we have been walking around in the woods for years.  I am just catching up to those who used hiking sticks since man walked this world almost erect.  With that new insight from Charlie Richie on how can we improve if possible on what has already been proven to work through trial and error?
 
As I have enjoyed reading and mentally experimenting with the ideas presented to everyone from all of the subscribers, members, and bloggers (who are genuinely open friendly and sharing).  I wanted to present to them my version of the Ice Walking Stick and ideas for the survival kit.  Therefore, after reading the article it was time to reinvent the wheel or the stick in this case.

The second version of the walking stick that I created was an ice stick with all the survival necessities to protect you in an emergency bivouac in a 1-1/2″ diameter PVC pipe, with the ice pick at one end, and a screw cap at the other end, with everything else inside the waterproof stick.

I have taken ideas from every issue of Charlie Riche’s magazine and any information presented from the following sites:
BackwoodsmanMag.com, TacticalIntelligence.net, Jack@survivalpodcast.com , Joel@surivalcashe.com , and ErichJeckel@gmail.com, TheSurvivalMom.com, TheEpicenter.com, OffgridSurvival.com, Les Stroud and Bear Gryllis DVDs as well as many military handbooks, outdoor survival manuals.  

By taking, the concepts presented,  in each article I built onto the idea and added my new enhancements, hence the term “what is old is new again”, but with a twist.

The stick was assembled with off-the-shelf PVC pipe, fittings, glue, and miscellaneous hardware items. 

The material list for my first generation stick is as follows:
·        1 ½” dia. 5’ – 0” long  schedule  40 PVC pipe
·        1 ½” PVC  female cap socket joint
·        1 ½” PVC  socket female x threaded adapter
·        1 ½” PVC   threaded cleanout plug
·        One Philips head 3/8” diameter steel shaft x 6” long with a plastic handle (clear plastic preferred to be able to see the steel shaft imbedded in the handle).
·        (2)  ¼” dia.  x 2 ½” lg. stove bolts
·        (4) ¼” washers
·        (2) ¼” lock washers
·        (2) ¼” bolt caps
·        1 small can of PVC solvent and glue
·        A dust mask when cutting or grinding the plastics
·         Safety glasses for cutting, grinding and drilling
·        SS machine screw 1” long with a two (2) washers and  a nut
·        Duct tape (heavy duty plastic coated recommended)
 
To start the stick, work with the screwdriver   first, using a side grinder with an abrasive sanding disk to round off the screwdriver handle.  The handle should fit snugly into the bottom of the pipe.  Insert the handle until the beginning of the screwdriver is flush with the bottom of the pipe. Set the pipe on a vise to hold it in place for drilling.  Mark on the outside of the pipe where the steel shaft lies within the handle before drilling.  Knowing were the end of the pipe is drill about a half inch clear of the shaft a 5/16” diameter hole through the assembly.  Rotate the pipe a full 90 degrees and drill another hole about  ¾” above the last hole working toward the top of the pipe.  You should have the holes running North and South and East and West. The screwdriver handle can  be switched   from the ice pick end to the rounded screwdriver handle end by just reversing the position of the driver.  The bolts will secure the driver in either position for ice, road, and or sidewalk as needed.  Install the stove bolts washers and nuts to the pipe. 

Take the PVC cap and drill a hole directly through the center of the top of the cap.  Use a drill bit the same diameter as the screwdriver, then push the cap onto the tip and up an onto the pipe end.  This will close off the bottom of the pipe and keep moisture out from snow or water from creek crossings.  I thought of gluing this cap, on but that would mean always having the pick end out and not being able to change to the blunt tip.  I glued the pipe cleanout fitting on the  top of the pipe and then screwed the threaded male plug  (hex head) into the cleanout.  To keep from losing the plug on the ground run a metal screw through the plug with glue on the screw threads, and place the washer and nut on tight to the underside of the plug.  The screw head extended above the cap about a half inch with a fender washer to hold a cord attached to the plug and was then tied off to the hand loop to keep from losing the plug.  On a cold day, I would not want to look for the cap if it drops into the snow.  For extra cordage run a length of parachute  cord around the pipe and duct tape the ends only under a few turns of about  of duct tape.  This also forms a grip and tie off for the hand loop.  The hand loop should be large enough to slide a gloved hand through the loop.

The fun part was filling the newly-hollowed pipe with skinny survival gear that fit into the pipe cavity and could slide in or out quickly. My shoulder pack is my extended stay bag and contains full size back up gear and more.  Remember that anonymous famous saying that “One is none routine”, and of course my favorite: “It is better to have it and not use it rather than to need it and not have it”.  The meaning has changed substantially from its original meaning, I think.  With this in mind, my walking stick serves more than one purpose other than assisting me while walking on snow, ice or rough terrain.  The stick provides a feeling of confidence that should a problem arise you have assistance available and at hand.

The contents ‘of the Ice Stick is as listed below
·        ¾” copper pipe nipple about 3” long  with caps at each end just pushed on the ends containing waterproof matches
·        Rolled up  cotton pads soaked in paraffin wax (fire starter) (Note: Makeup remover round cotton pads split open, filled with Vaseline, closed shut then dipped in wax to seal.)
·        Round plastic  propane and flint lighter
·        Wax coated cotton  tipped sticks (short double ended homemade mini torches) (Note: Mini torch consists of cotton tipped swab with a paper stick with both ends dipped and coated with candle wax. When lit is lit has a very bright light and last about five minutes of intense heat.)
·        Fishing line and small hooks in a small plastic container
·        Swiss small army knife
·        Reciprocating saw blades metal and wood
·        Small plastic bottle with four days worth of  meds inside
·        Steel and flint fire starter combo
·        ¼” triangular style 6” long metal file
·        Small led flashlight and extra  AAA  batteries
·        Steel 30 # leaders with swivels for constructing snares/ fishing
·        Small bottle of liquid type bandage
·        Sewing tube with nylon  braided line and large  needles
·        9 volt battery for igniting steel wool
·        Rolled up steel wool in plastic wrap
 
When you carry the walking stick, you can provide more room in your bug out bag.  The shoulder bag provides the shelter, food, ammo, cleaning kit, axe, saw, field first aid kit, and basic specialty knives.
 
Your imagination will run away with different packing items and uses for the stick. Enjoy and be safe.

Vision Preps for Disasters, by Josh D. in Georgia

As anyone who makes preparations for the survival of themselves and their family knows the number of things you have to take into account when planning is truly vast and can be overwhelming at times. Food storage, reusable resources, home defense, and do-it-yourself medical care are just a few of the things that must be researched, prepared, and enacted to ensure that you are safe and ready for whatever may come. The number of articles giving advice and urging action are equally numerous throughout dozens of blogs, web sites and books. Within all of this however I have seen almost no Information on preparing for something that is essential to almost 60 percent of the American public, Prescription Corrective lens. This really shocked me as it seemed like an item that would be on the forefront of anyone who uses glasses mind, given the level of helplessness that would arise without the corrective lens we rely on.

Glasses are used by a large percentage of people on a daily basis for the essential task of granting usable vision. Anyone who wears glasses will understand exactly how important they are to effectively any activity. I myself am nearsighted, without my glasses I legally cannot drive, without my glasses I am effectively helpless, unable to see more than 3-4 feet in front of me in any usable way. In our current society that’s not a problem, Contacts, Lasik vision surgery, and old-fashioned prescription lens give people like myself the ability to see at almost 20/20 vision with a short examination and a wait of a few days for your lens to be delivered, granting you full functionality as a member of society. Now picture a broken world, roads badly maintained, little to no trade or contact with anyone more than a few miles away, and 0, that’s right 0, access to the specialized equipment and even more specialized skills needed to manufacture prescription glasses. Imagine trying to effectively forage for food and resources while unable to see more than a few feet away from you, or if far-sighted without any close up focus, this takes a situation already extremely difficult and turns it into one where you have little chance of independent survival, and worse in many perspectives, can find yourself a burden to those who love you. Taking this problem, something with such a widespread applicability, as lightly as many people do is simply unimaginable. To truly drive home how dangerous this is and how crippling it can be, think on what could happen if your attacked by unknown people, its late at night your glasses are on the table next to you but in the dark you can’t find them, you grab your home defense weapon, always kept ready and loaded and run to see what’s wrong, as you reach the door  you come to a horrible realization, without your glasses you can’t distinguish between your children, your wife, your mother, your father, and whoever it is that has penetrated your defenses, now you are truly helpless, unable to use your carefully prepared and lovingly cared for weapon to protect your family for fear of hurting that very family.

Considering the gravity of this problem the solutions are actually fairly simple to enact and can lead to either a complete resolution or at the very least the reduction of the problem to negligible risk. There are three main things that can be used to nullify this problem, Lasik, Glasses, and contact lens, each of which has their own pros and cons
Lasik is overall the best option as it is a permanent solution to the problem, and completely removes the risk associated with. The procedure has become easy, quick to perform and easy to heal from leading to its continuing increase among the general population. Despite these benefits there are some downsides that can eliminate lasik as a usable solution. The biggest hurdle for most people to overcome is the expense, Lasik is considered elective surgery by almost all insurance carriers, and as such the full cost must be borne by the patient themselves. A basic Lasik surgery, for a simple prescription change generally cost around 300-600 dollars per eye, while a large prescription, with astigmatism and other complications, can cost upwards of $1,500 per eye. I don’t know about most of you but I definitely don’t have an extra $600-$1,200 lying around much less $3,000. Taking all of this into account Lasik can be seen as a good investment for many people who can afford it and as a goal to work and save towards for those such as myself.

The second solution is one familiar to anyone preparing themselves and their family for periods of unrest and lawlessness, namely building up stores of necessary tools and materials, in this case Glasses and contact lens. The expense is once again a stumbling block; glasses are expensive ranging from a hundred to several hundred dollars a pair at traditional retailers with contact lens costing nearly $30-$100 for a 3 month supply. A solution I have found and frequently employ is online discount eyeglass retailers. My preferred point of sale is Zenni Optical, due to their low cost and general high level of quality but there are several other retailers as well. At Zenni you can get most prescriptions for 6.99 a pair and can get progressive or bifocal glasses for only $40-60, which as anyone who lives with corrective lens can tell you, is a significant savings. By using online retailers you can purchase several pair for under a hundred dollars, and with each pair you will receive a hard case, cleaning cloth and pay low shipping, making them perfect to put in several different locations for all eventualities. I myself have ordered some 30 pairs of glasses from Zenni and several pair from Goggles4u another of the online retailers. I keep several pair throughout my house along with five pair in a secure location away from my home, I have a pair in my car and one in my BOB along with the pair I keep with me at all times.

When you place your order you simply take the prescription given to you by your doctor and input it into the fields provided on the order page, then choose whatever styles and materials you like along with any add-on’s such as non reflective lens coatings and things of that nature. Make sure you ask your doctor to do a full eyeglass prescription for you as you won’t have the technicians at the store to take Pupillary Distance (PD), which is the distance between the pupils of your eye, and facial measurements all of which are necessary to ensure a comfortable fit. The only real downside to using Zenni in particular is that they have almost no customer service available, a trait which seems typical for the entire field, for instance except in instances in which they’re manufacturers made a mistake in the prescription or the glasses are broken upon delivery they will only offer 50% in a refund. Despite this the overall quality of the lens and frames are very high, I’ve only had one pair in which the prescription was off and it was quickly replaced for shipping costs only. When I compare the $6.99 glasses I receive from the bargain retailer versus the $239 per pair I last purchased from Lenscrafters. I can see no difference in the quality of the lens and with the frame the pair from the online store is actually sturdier and less susceptible to scratches and bending. In short I would seriously recommend checking out these online stores in order to build up a cheap store of eyeglasses to protect your vision.

With contacts it becomes both more expensive and provides a shorter term benefit. Contacts have a usable shelf life of only a few years which limits the amount you can reliably stockpile as without regular rotation they will become less and less viable. Along with the lens themselves solution and proper maintenance materials must also be maintained. Contacts must be regularly removed and cleaned to prevent the buildup of dead cells on the surface of the lens which can lead to the formation of a corneal ulcer. With no regular medical service available what in our current society is a treatable condition could easily lead to partial blindness.  On the other side of the argument contacts offer several benefits over eyeglasses, ease of use, relative security from theft, and ability to work and do activities without worry of shattering or damaging them. By wearing contacts it is much more difficult for anyone who captures you or attacks your family to exploit them as they can’t be knocked off or removed as easily as glasses, a major tactical benefit. While wearing them one doesn’t have to worry about accidentally hitting them or knocking them loose through an incautious movement, thereby accidentally depriving you of corrected vision. In a world without optometrists and the ability to produce new glasses eyeglasses could have a great deal of value as a potential trade good, given that with many lower level prescriptions there will be some overlap among prescriptions, leading to possible theft of eyeglasses for trade.

To procure contacts I would again recommend taking advantage of discount online retailers, as the price is generally much lower than traditional brick and mortar companies. 1-800 Contacts is the company I use for all my contacts but I’m sure there are others available. By using them I save $10-$15 for each three month supply I purchase, which allows me to buy an extra several months every year without going over budget. By ensuring that I rotate my supply out each time I purchase new lens I can keep about a year’s supply on hand at all time, thus giving me a buffer between breaks in supply and a way to slowly move myself off of contacts without too much difficulty if the supply is completely cut off.

By using these methods and planning ahead anyone with a need for corrective lens can ensure that they have continual and unimpaired vision even though the ability to produce new glasses is no longer in existence.

Letter Re: The Google Earth Threat to Retreats

Dear SurvivalBloggers:
So you think that your residence, bug out location, or retreat are going to be easy to hide?

See this news article: Police: Burglar used Google Maps to case upscale suburban homes

Think operational security (OPSEC)!

I’ve noticed in my neighborhood who had “photo roofs”, who ran a generator during the recent Hurricane Irene, and who has “interesting” bulk food boxes put out for recycling. 

Now I’m not going to be part of the Golden Horde. I’ll be dead of a stroke if TEOTWAWKI happens. (Never been right before in my predictions.)

But if I see this stuff, the bad guys and soon-to-be bad guys will, too. 

Arrgh! – J.R.C.

Economics and Investing:

Commodities Are Down, But Far From Out

Tulare County [California] walnut farmers fight theft. (Thanks to Sean B. for the link.)

Kevin S. sent: A new supply risk index for chemical elements or element groups which are of economic value

Items from The Economatrix:

Silver Soars 26% In 26 Hours

Denninger:  I Hope You Have Taken the Last Couple of Years to Prepare

10 Million More Mortgages Set to Default, Expert Says

Global Financial Meltdown:  Investors Dump Nearly Everything Amidst Worldwide Market Crash

Oil Wavers on Weak Home Sales