Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Regulators here and in Europe have no idea — repeat, no idea — of the full extent of the derivatives exposure that could be triggered by an “official” Greek default, or by the failure of a major French bank. And if the people in charge have no clue as to the fallout from what may be trillions of dollars in side bets waiting to be triggered in a catastrophic cascade, they’re basically flying blind.” – Matt Miller, in a Washington Post editorial on derivatives titled: Europe’s debt crisis and the danger we can’t see



Notes from JWR:

We are pleased to welcome our newest advertiser, Pantry Paratus. Even though they had been our advertising waiting list for many moons, our staff didn’t get the chance to meet the owners of Pantry Paratus until the recent Denver Preparedness Expo. They have a friendly sales team, excellent customer service, and a great line of preparedness products with an emphasis on food preservation–including vacuum sealers, dehydrators, and home canners. They also offer bulk wheat, peas and lentils grown in The Palouse Hills. Be sure to visit their web site and their blog.

Today we present another entry for Round 37 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $300 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo, and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, C.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and D.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, C.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and D.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 37 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Uses of Thermoses and Hot Water Bottles, by BigSky

I have long believed that quality hot water bottles and steel vacuum thermos bottles and are very valuable survival tools. They are a wonderful intersection of high and low tech that can serve in a number of helpful roles.

THERMOSES

Fireless Cooking (retained-heat cooking) – I have cooked in WIDE-mouth thermoses many hundreds of times since the 1970s. There are a couple of other articles on this sight covering that fuel-saving application. I would amend the recommendation given re: Aladdin Stanley vacuum bottles, and I will cover that below. Using WIDE-mouth thermoses for “fireless cooking” is one very useful role for thermos bottles that saves fuel and allows mobility even while your food cooks. Summarized, fireless cooking in a wide-mouth thermos involves immediately transferring boiling-hot food into the thermos which is then sealed up for approx. two to three hours. It won’t burn or over cook the food. If the food temp drops over time  into double digits fahrenheit, the food will eventually begin to spoil. If cooking grain, leave a half inch space empty at the top for expansion. If it is to be carried in a pack it should be maintained upright and placed within a plastic bag which can be secured against leakage. I’ve learned that the hard way.

Because of a long-term interest in vacuum bottles I have tested the heat-retention abilities of every brand I could lay hands on. The winner consistently is the Nissan stainless steel line with their premium vacuum technology marketed as “Thermax” insulation. “Thermax” is also available in the higher-end Thermos brand products, from the formerly American-owned Thermos Co. now owned by the same Japanese conglomerate that years ago acquired the Nissan line. (Not connected with the car company). Stateside, the Nissan products are marketed as Thermos-Nissan while the lower-end lines have the “Thermos” name as a stand-alone. The Nissan line incorporates tensilized stainless steel which allows them to be lighter weight than other metal bottles on the market while also being more thermal efficient.

The venerable, heavy old Aladdin-Stanley bottles worked pretty well and were built like a tank. Now they are Stanley-PMI, made in China, and their online reviews are deplorable. I have only tested the old A – S models which performed pretty well against the Nissans, for someone who didn’t mind the extra size and weight. Search out old, used American-made models and replace the pour-through stoppers with a solid stopper that must be removed to dispense the contents (available in some hardware and outdoor stores).

JWR Adds: Look for the older Aladdin-Stanley stainless steel bottles on eBay or through Craigslist. These are available with scuffs and minor dents for the fraction of the price of the new bottles , yet they are better made!

Having hot water readily available for warm drinks or for preparing instant foods throughout the day or night, whether at home or on the move, is a comfort and convenience. It may be more than just convenience in frigid weather. In a situation where hot water requires a wood fire – or, in some cases, solar devices — having the ability to maintain a goodly supply of hot water for immediate use over extended periods without starting a new fire – or waiting for the sun – can be a treasure. Having hot water for washing first thing in the morning, before a fire is started, can be an invaluable comfort. Having hot water to refill a hot water bottle which you’re using to stay warm on a frigid night is another comforting convenience.
In a situation where starting a wood fire is necessary to heat water, having the means to store a gallon or more of hot water, without the fire start-up and fuel use, is a no-brainer, esp. when hot water is the only reason for burning the wood. (This is a scenario where having a “rocket stove”, e.g. the Stovetec, makes a lot of sense since the fire goes right into heating the water rather than also heating up several hundreds pounds of a woodstove’s steel and firebrick, something you especially don’t want to do in warm weather.) Working with a finite supply of any fuel, it makes good fuel sense to heat some extra water to put into a thermos rather than restarting a stove later on.

I have not found glass-insert thermoses that will perform anywhere near the efficiency at which high-quality steel units will function. Don’t throw the glass ones out if you have them, but be aware that there is a large performance jump with Nissan or the old Stanley steel units. Glass thermoses are, of course, considerably more fragile, too.

Two-quart thermoses will maintain higher temps for longer periods than one quart units so, for a family, a couple of these might be a wise choice. One ‘two-quarter’ is also a cheaper investment than two one-quart units. If it’s going to be carried in a pack though, choose what will make sense for you or your group.

The Thermos-Nissan one liter “Compact Bottle” thermos (FBB1000), besides being more efficient than the Stanleys (new or old), is also lighter weight and smaller. The Nissan WIDE-MOUTH “Food/Beverage Bottle” (FDH1405) is a 48 oz (1.5 qt.) unit as opposed to the Stanley’s one qt. which does not have a very thick stopper – the critical design element for maintaining heat long term in a thermos.

Efficiency of the any thermos can be increased by wrapping it with closed-cell sleeping-pad foam or other good insulating material. Concentrate extra insulation around the cap as this is where most heat is lost from a thermos.

DIY expedient thermoses
can be made using a sturdy glass bottle thoroughly wrapped with closed-cell foam, Thinsulate, packaging foam, or various other insulators. An inner layer of heavy duty aluminum foil, shiny side in, will add the insulation factor of a radiant barrier which  reflects heat back to its source. A radiant barrier needs a little air space between it and the hot object to work properly. A couple layers of onion bags (or similar open, lattice material) inside the foil layer should adequately meet this airspace requirement. Do not allow the foil any direct exposure to the surrounding air as this creates a point of conduction-convection heat escape. Over the foil is placed your standard insulation. All-weather duct tape should keep it all nicely intact. Preheat for a couple minutes with hot water, dump that out and fill with freshly hot water. If they are well-insulated these improvised thermoses may actually outperform some so-called thermoses currently on the market.

HOT WATER BOTTLES

Good quality hot water bottles (HWBs) can help with much more than pains, upset stomachs, and flu chills. They might even save a life in frigid situations. I would recommend two minimum per person, especially in cold climates.

One brand I’ve found to be particularly versatile is Fashy out of Germany. They make a tough thermoplastic hot water bottle that can resist repeated sanitizing in hospital sterilizers.
I’ve lived in cold houses where in winter I have sometimes gone to bed with two HWBs on nights some of which probably qualified as ‘Three-Bag Nights’ for those who remember the reason for having three dogs around you on such cold nights. With a good HWB (should have a very trustworthy stopper or be put inside a sturdy zip-lock bag) you can place near-boiling water in it and wrap it with terry towels to protect your skin and retard the bag’s heat emission so that it will provide heat for you throughout the night. Holding one HWB between the thighs may work as a good placement because most of the heat is transferred to the body. Against the spine and kidneys, backed up with a pillow, may work for side-sleepers. Experiment to find what works for you. If you haven’t tried a HWB (or two) on a cold night, you’re in for a real treat. Not quite as lovable as a couple of big, friendly dogs, but they’re a lot easier on the budget.

Diverging slightly here, in Chinese and Japanese medicine it has been known for centuries that maintaining the warmth of the kidney area of the back helps to maintain strength, alertness, resistance, and efficiency in the cold. Hara belts, scarves wrapped around the trunk to cover the kidneys, have been a common clothing accessory in these countries for centuries and are something for westerners to consider seriously (a German company called Medima, has nice, elasticized ones that are fashioned into a step-into garment). Our military has found the same benefits but adds the whole spinal column into the equation. There is clothing marketed now that is insulated with this awareness in mind and even has small behind-the-kidney pockets into which hand warmers can be inserted.

Strapping a HWB over the kidneys with a scarf inside a shirt may be a trick to consider in cold weather when a lot of movement is not anticipated. Putting the HWB inside the front of one’s shirt so it is bottom-supported above the belt may work with greater levels of activity. Experiment. Keep the stopper up (maybe padded, too) and remember the Ziploc bag if uncertain about the stopper’s integrity.

A back-up thermos of hot water can dovetail with this stay-warm trick to refill your HWB when it cools down to the point of not providing warmth. As with use in your sleeping bag or bed, near boiling water can be used providing the bottle is wrapped with a towel or other  insulation which protects the skin and slows down the bag’s release of heat.
I look forward to hearing what tricks others have found for using these valuable tools for everyday use and survival applications.



Two Letters Re: A Different Perspective on Packing a Bugout Bag

James,
I have to take issue with the last post concerning the contents of a persons B.O.B. The writers experience of humping large loads up mountains under fire notwithstanding, I have to say that the majority of bags and packs being prepared today aren’t for natural disasters,even though they certainly would suffice for that situation.
 
I live in a Hurricane Zone and survived Katrina, although without having to relocate. And I agree with the writer that I didn’t know of anyone starving to death .I also have read the latest figures showing FEMA is broke and aid to impacted areas could be slowed or otherwise affected.
 
Having said all that,why not have TWO BOBs for each family member? The first would be a smaller one with the required 72 hrs subsistence–although I’d substitute the water with a good quality purifier and use that extra weight penalty for a sleeping bag and tent. Granola bars,other types of cereal bars and the so-called “Lifeboat” bars fit in nicely with this sort of situation,allowing for one freeze dried meal per day for variety.

Then for those who wish to prepare for some other sort of G.O.O.D. situation, the second pack would be a nice 6,000 cubic inch pack with all the trimmings can be right alongside. Since my family’s Gore-Tex rain suits are rolled on the outside of the big pack,they can easily be transferred to the smaller pack if I think its a needed thing to take one and not the other.
Just an idea for those who are on the fence about how to prepare. – Ed S. in Mississippi

James,
Thanks for your blog, I read daily and it has changed my overall perspective by no small measure.  I am sure that you will get flooded with an incredible amount of emails pertaining to the BOB article.  Apologies, but I just must add my 2 Centavos. 

Prioritizing the contents of a BOB and abandoning some items is indeed crucial for all who would have one.  However, the author jumps right into paramilitary gear as if AR-15s and thousands of rounds are weighing down all our BOBs.  I know most preppers have more gear than they ever plan to carry, which can make the situation that much worse when trying to choose.  Of course fitness and individual ability to carry weight are key factors as well, which means that maintaining or improving fitness to carry what you need is also very important.  However, let’s look at the author’s example: 160 lb fit male with 25% load in the BOB (40 lbs).  I myself happen to be a fit male of around that build and I feel that 40 lbs is far too short for the intended purpose.  I don’t walk out my front door to work without a 40lb day pack, much less bug out!  Let’s take the authors whole entire bag of food, water, medical, and fill in that last 5 lbs with your camp, a small metal pot filled with a camp tarp / knife / firesteel / compass / map / water tabs or filter, just what you need to set up camp and sleep outdoors during those initial days and maybe make your way in the woods.  Now I am “maxed out” at 40lbs.  Next, how many of us will beat feet with no form of self defense in the bag?  I am not talking about any form of rifle, but even the handgun with a few clips will add some heft to the pack.  In fact, a .45 ACP with 200 rounds easily hits 40lbs, doubling the bug out weight total right there. 

If I were a minimalist, I would stop there and just deal with carrying 50% of my body weight just like any other camping trip.  That is the absolute bare minimum for me personally.  But that’s not good enough yet.  By the time we add an emergency radio to keep up with what’s happening out there, some rope or paracord, a little cash and junk silver, a couple pieces of spare or layer clothing for night time or weather changes, and the ebook reader we are quickly approaching 100 lbs in my BOB.

Now one could argue that the whole last paragraph is all optional stuff, and they would be right, but all also potentially life saving and well worth the few pounds to me.  Now I am sure there would be many suggestions on the firearm / protection configuration that keeps weight lower.  Sure, one could take a smaller caliber or (gasp!) less ammo but the bottom line is that anything chosen will add a significant amount of heft to your overall setup.  Grabbing this bag would require (obviously) a real bug out scenario where we would potentially be abandoning everything we have and know.  With no guarantee that my home / supplies will be there when I return, or that  I would even return at all, I plan on carrying everything I can and then some! – Nate V.



Economics and Investing:

G.G. sent this for the I-Told-You-So Department: Home prices heading for triple-dip. Mark you calendar for June, 2022. That might be a reasonable date for price recovery, barring a mass currency inflation. But even that of course wouldn’t be a genuine market recovery, when gauged in real home values (adjusted for inflation).

Don’t miss this great piece by Thomas L. Friedman: Did You Hear the One About the Bankers? (Thank to Jed F. for the link.)

Ben S. sent this: The Inflation Shock and the Fall Melt-Up of 2011

Despite Debt Deal, Europe May Slide into Recession

John R. sent this: Papandreou’s Power Weakens as Lawmakers Rebel on Vote

Greek vote would be on euro membership: Finnish minister

G.G. flagged this: US Food Stamp Usage Hits New Record



Odds ‘n Sods:

Lee M. sent this article datelined Spartanburg, S.C.: Sheriff: Time For Citizens To Arm Themselves; Sheriff Chuck Wright Doesn’t Hold Back

   o o o

SDG spotted this: DHS completes Multi-Band Radio testing

   o o o

Survival Mom very kindly spilled a lot of ink pixels, posting links to my recent radio interview with Peter Schiff.

   o o o

“Boosters” sent this piece that has been overlooked by the mainstream media: Muslims Stone Catholic Festival-Goers in France.

   o o o

Over at TechPlus: How to create disposable mail address





Note from JWR:

A quick update on my writing projects:

I’ve finished writing the second sequel to “Patriots: A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse”. It will be titled: “Founders: A Novel of the Coming Collapse”. Like “Survivors”, it will be a contemporaneous sequel to “Patriots”, but this one will focus more on the latter stages of the War of Resistance. This novel is set mainly in and near Fort Knox, Kentucky. It describes how U.S. Army Captain Andy Laine infiltrates the Provisional Government’s New Army in the midst of the resistance war, and the foundation of a new Constitutional government. The novel also details the cross-country trek of Ken and Terry Layton, and introduces a new character: Joshua Watanabe, a U.S. Air Force Missileer, stationed at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Montana. “Founders” will be published by Atria Books (a division of Simon & Schuster) It is scheduled for release in November, 2012.

Meanwhile, I’ve just begun writing “Rawles on Guns and Other Tools For Survival.” (A non-fiction book.) It is scheduled for release in late 2013 or early 2014 by the Plume Division of Penguin Books–the same company that publishes my international bestseller “How to Survive the End of the World As We Know It.

OBTW, I heard from my editor at Atria that “Survivors” is already in its fourth printing even though the book is not yet a month old. Here are the details:

1st:      29,000
2nd:     6,000
3rd:     12,500
4th:     5,000
Total in print (as of 31 October, 2011): 52,500

Note that the third and later printings include corrections to a few typographical errors. My apologies for letting those slip by!



Letter Re: Radio Communication and Antennas

All radios need an antenna and the type of antenna chosen will determine important performance characteristics. Let us start with a radio most people are familiar with. The citizens band
radio is typically supplied with some form of mobile vertical whip style antenna. This antenna is usually mounted vertically on the vehicle and it radiates radio frequency energy with mostly vertical polarization. Most CB users have vertical antennas so they are most sensitive to similar signals having vertical polarization. If a person using CB radio wanted to make his signal heard by his comrades more and less by people outside his group, he could change his antenna to a horizontally polarized antenna style and have his comrades do the same. There are other tricks to making a radio signal less likely to be intercepted by an unfriendly force. Antennas can be built to have directional characteristics so that the majority of the radio frequency energy is directed toward your comrades but not towards the opposing force. One cheap and user friendly wire beam antenna is named the Moxon beam. The Moxon beam is built to operate on a narrow band of frequencies and it typically doubles your effective radiated power twice and reduces radiation to the rear by a large degree. The Moxon beam antenna also can be set up for vertical or horizontal polarization. A very important feature of the Moxon beam antenna is it’s suitability for matching the impedance of the radio transceiver. Most radio transceivers have a 50 ohm nominal impedance and that just means that in order to transfer the most energy to the antenna, you need the connecting cable and the antenna to both have 50 ohm ratings. Coaxial cable is often used to connect the transceiver to the antenna and this cable for low power would typically be RG-58 (available from Radio Shack and many others).

Antennas radiate differently depending how high off the ground they are mounted. Let us take our CB radio and connect it to a dipole antenna. The frequency of CB radios is about 27 Mhz(megahertz) and another way to express the frequency is by the mention of the wavelength which is approximately 11 meters. If we mount our dipole antenna at ¼ wavelength above ground, it will radiate energy efficiently perpendicular to the wire and practically no energy in line with the wire. The ¼ wavelength at 11 meters is close to 108 inches. If we bring the antenna closer to the ground at 50 inches the antenna radiates most of it’s energy straight up towards the clouds(which is the reason this type of antenna is called a cloud burner). A point of safety: any antenna radiating radio energy must be isolated so that people are not able to physically touch the wire or an RF burn may result. An RF burn can burn to the bone and take many months to heal. Also, ionizing radiation from antennas can be hazardous if power levels are elevated and/or a power gain antenna is used and directed where humans may be.

Why would you want to direct your radio frequency energy towards the sky? A skywave coming from a near vertical incidence skywave (NVIS) antenna at the appropriate frequency will cover an area that would be described as regional as opposed to global. An NVIS generated signal is much harder to direction find by the opposing force.

Another wire antenna type for point-to-point communications is the Rhombic antenna. This antenna can make a pin point beam width of about 30 degrees and is useful for a wide range of frequencies but may take up a large area to erect. The Rhombic antenna is diamond shaped and each side of the diamond must be 3 or 4 wave lengths. For CB a rhombic antenna would be a little less than 6×11 meters long or about 200 feet overall. On the 75 meter ham band the length would be just under 1400 feet. On the 2 meter ham band the overall length would be under 36 feet. The big plus of the Rhombic antenna is pin point aiming which give higher effective radiated power and much better hearing for the receiver. The antenna gives an amplifying effect without using extra power. The power gain is estimated at 10 dB (Decibels) or greater. The power is doubled effectively for every 3 dB of gain. If the transmitter output power started with 5 watts, this style antenna could boost the directional power to over 30 watts of effective radiated power.

My personal favorite antenna for ham radio is a relatively discreet loop of wire that circles my yard at an average height of less than 15 feet and it has about a 550 foot circumference. It is inexpensive and proven to work on all high frequency ham bands (1.8 to 28 Mhz) with the use of an antenna tuner. This antenna is not for talking reliably for more than about 400 to 600 miles using 100 watts of power on the 75 meter ham band. 

For more in depth antenna study, consult the American Radio Relay League (ARRL) and their publications. The ARRL Antenna Book has a wealth of information as does the ARRL Radio Handbook. The ARRL web page has information about where to test for your ham radio license and QRZ.com has sample test questions to prepare for the test to become an amateur radio operator.

The ham tests are written and all the answers are at QRZ.com.There is no longer a code test but Morse code is a great mode to operate with under low power conditions or less favorable propagation and it makes your communications more secure from the average eavesdropper.

Disclaimer: Check with your Radio Authority before transmitting to be sure you are operating according to rules of the Authority having Jurisdiction over your geographic area. In the US that authority is the Federal Communications Commission (FCC). – Uniform Delta



Letter Re: A Different Perspective on Packing a Bugout Bag

Dear Editor:
The unanswerable question becomes what constitutes the absolute needed contents within the much discussed and dissected “Bugout” or “Bail Out” Bag (BOB). The generally accepted definition of a BOB could be summed as providing the carrier with seventy two hours of life supporting kit.  While the initial attempts to define its necessity would likely center around the need to displace due to such things as hurricanes, earthquakes or extreme civil strife I am not convinced this would constitute the apocalyptic SHTF scenario so many individuals seem to envision when compiling their BOB contents lists.  I do support the theorem of necessitating a grab bag that is prepared for immediate deployment.  However, I do not believe the majority of the items I have seen pre-positioned for rapid departure would be of use in the aforementioned natural disasters. For the record the aforesaid adversities are statistically more likely to occur versus the end of the world as we know it.  Thus, your primary concern should be to ensure your BOB is equipped for the most likely scenario dictated by your local seasonal phenomena. Under those dire circumstances a reasonable load of food, water, and personal hygiene items for a man, woman and child (children) would suffice until humanitarian aid arrived.  I would wager that upon a close examination of the after effects of Hurricane Katrina one would be hard pressed to find a verifiable incident evidencing death by starvation.  Therefore, a reasonable conclusion or statement could be made that aide, whether provided by the state/federal governments or a non-governmental agency (NGO), such as the Red Cross, would be sufficient to maintain timely subsistence.

I am not advocating described times would not be tough to cope with, but I am saying those that are subscribing to the 72 hour BOB theory at times appear to be preparing for two missions.  The intent of this commentary is to examine the concept of the Bail Out Bag from one of these two unique perspectives.  The first of which is to make it through the initial onslaught, seek and gain semi-permanent refuge within three calendar days so as to be supported by local/national level relief agencies.  Ultimately the intent would be to return home once declared safe.  Now on the other hand, some individuals seem to take into consideration an extreme objective when loading up a BOB.  Based on their packing lists and forum derived commentary, they seem to be leaning towards how best to prepare for the complete dissolution of the Rule of Law whereby every man, as the last vestige of humankind, is facing personal extinction on a daily basis.

Before I continue, I would like to reiterate and reinforce my stance that preparation for surviving a 72 hour movement to safety is great.   But I would strongly advise a prepper to concentrate in preparing his/her load out based on these three items.  First is water, second food, and finally the tertiary concern should be personal hygiene items with a basic first aid kit. 

Let us use the example of a 160 pound adult male backpacking 25% of his body weight, which should be exactly 40 pounds.  The initial guidance would be to carry two gallons of water and at 8.5 lbs per gallon this would be 17 lbs.  I would pack two pounds of food per day, which is six pounds for three days.  I would keep my personal hygiene and first aide kits down to three pounds.  At this point the weight carried equates to 26 pounds.  This leaves fourteen pounds of items to be carried at the discretion of said male, some of which is already accounted for in the form of the BOB itself.  Obviously, your load out equipment will vary based on the type of terrain traversed, time of season and proximity to a safe refuge.  Personally, I do not believe having immediate access to only two gallons of water is sufficient for a full three days of hiking, especially if you are operating in climates high in humidity, having to traverse over terrain versus defined roads or operating in desert-like terrain.  One very broad rule of thumb states an adult male should have three liters of water per day, which converts to .79 gallons. By day three the displaced male would be almost a half gallon short of water.  The problem with the given rule of thumb is the source, and a respectable source at that, did not specific the age, weight, physical condition, nor did it indicate if the “men” had to remain inactive on a daily basis to meet this threshold of three liters.  I believe a better way to determine how much water might need to be carried; one should measure his/her water intake over a series of inactive and physically active days to extrapolate an accurate demand for hydration during arduous activity.  Honestly, my opinion would be to advocate carrying another gallon of water and utilizing only 5.5 lbs for discretionary items.

So why have I taken the time to run the numbers on something as ordinary as water?  It is to underpin my earlier commentary that those who prepare are preparing to carry too much in unnecessary accoutrements.  Look how quickly the weight of the BOB increases with just the minimal necessities of food and water.  Therefore, extreme caution and moderation should be exercised when determining what extraneous items are to be packed.  You may have 100 pounds of high speed, low drag gear but that still is a 100 lbs you have to carry.  When one is contemplating the initial packing lists, are you just packing for yourself, a spouse and/or children?  It is fairly evident the individual physical fitness capacity of each person within your group is going to determine who carries how much and how much of what is going to be carried.  A five year old child may be able to carry only his supply of pull ups for three nights but in no way will he be able to carry his 72 hour requirement of juice boxes.  Trust me; my son who just turned six seems to consume his body weight in juice on a daily basis.  Consequently, I would have to carry my necessary items along with those needed by my son, which further reduces my ability to carry optional items. At this point I hope I have been able to clearly convey how I would approach a realistic resolution in easing one’s anxiety over how best to prepare a BOB. 

With saying the above, do you really need to pack snare wires for trapping small animals, a myriad supply of Swiss Army knives, machetes, axes, daggers, fixed/folding blades, combat tactical edged weapons, chemical lights in addition to LED flashlights, strobes, thousands of rounds of ammunition for your collection of assault rifles/combat pistols, stoves, pots, pans, titanium flatware, and finally lest we forget a level IV plate carrier with four ceramic inserts along with soft armor.   I will admit there is a time and place for that level of outfitting but I cannot advocate the need for the type or amount of equipment I have seen desired or acquired by a vast plethora of preppers who envision a three day movement.  Of course we are assuming you must leave your home of record and won’t be forting up within your residence due to the need, real or perceived, to relocate. 

If an individual or group has to displace and their collective plan includes the carrying of firearms, there are at least two concerns I would advise they take into consideration well prior to such a need.  The first is to ensure a complete understanding of their respective and adjoining states’ laws regarding the open and concealed carry of handguns, along with rifles/shotguns.  Just because there is a state of chaos or panic due to a disaster does not give a person immunity to operate outside the legal boundary.  Another point that should warrant thought is how are those carrying firearms going to be received by the agencies rendering aid?  I have always wondered what would happen when these people make it to the FEMA/NGO aide centers.  There is no why any government organization or relief agency is going to allow you to enter or partake of aide when you are carrying armaments in the quantities which surpass the basic combat load of an Infantryman.  It is one thing to legally carry a concealed handgun with a few extra magazines but to carry an arsenal of tactical rifles during the scenarios delineated earlier would likely cause more trouble than not.   

Taking into account the historic stability of western capitalistic-modeled, democratically governed countries, how many of such failed to adequately take care of their citizenry during any epic manmade or natural disasters?  I am not naïve to say governmental agencies are going to be Johnny on the spot when it comes to providing for its displaced citizenry.  Hence, I reiterate my belief that a 72 hour BOB, intelligently stocked, is indeed a wise investment in time and currency.  This strategy would allow the individual to bridge the gap between the time the disaster struck and arrival of aide.      

Now, let us consider the worst case scenario whereby the SHTF and every day that you awake you must answer the questions…do I eat and will I be eaten?  What assumptions must be made and what facts are applicable to this setting?  Firstly, something of such destructive power has completely eliminated the protections afforded to us through modern civilization.  While making assumptions as to what could cause a calamity of such annihilation is counterproductive to determining how best to prepare your BOB, it is the fact that your individual or group’s lifespan is now dependent on how well you can survive without the conveniences of modern times.  Therefore, in preparation of said earthshaking tragedy, the driving factor in prolonging your ability to function is derived from how well and comprehensively you have prepared your BOB.  As with the beginning of this commentary an unanswerable question has been posed yet again.  Clearly, the contents will be based on personal need, real or perceived, and what you believe will work best for you.   While I do not claim to know what best to pack for the time of omnipresent darkness I would find that subject matter a very worthy topic warranting more commentary. – F.J. (JWR Adds: F.J. is a U.S. Army officer currently deployed at a remote FOB in Afghanistan)



Economics and Investing:

The New American magazine cites my novel “Patriots” in a recent article on hyperinflation.

More derivatives news: Credit-Default Swap Risk Bomb Is Wired to Explode: Mark Buchanan. (Thanks to BigTex for the link.)

Bob S. spotted this: USDA economic research say CPI of food price to rise 3.5% – 4% in 2011.

Reader AmEx (American Expatriate) was the first of several readers to send this: Three Men Arrested In Nickel Theft At Local Steel Plant

Meanwhile, some sad news from England: Thieves desecrating memorials to our war heroes every other day as metal plaques and statues are being sold for scrap



Odds ‘n Sods:

F.G. sent this article from California that underscores a deep division in all of American society: Steven Greenhut: Rural rebellion brewing

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SurvivalBlog reader TTabs has produced another one of his great ultralight “trike flying” videos. This one shows a flight over ponds, rivers, and lakes in Eastern Washington. Not only is this scenic, but consider it some scouting for potential retreat locales. (Eastern Washington is part of the American Redoubt region. And BTW, one advantage of Washington state is that there is no personal income tax.) If you haven’t yet seen it, be sure to watch his aerial tour of locales from my novel “Patriots” , in the eastern Palouse Hills region of northern Idaho.

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Jeff A. forwarded this headline from Utah: Woman stole neighbor’s food storage, charges state.

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Kyle L. stumbled into an interesting web site called Vintageprojects.com while he was looking for some camping trailer plans. They have a bunch of do-it-yourself and “how stuff works” articles from Popular Mechanics, back in the 1950s and 1960s. All the PDF plans are free to download.

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Check out the new Self-Sufficient-Blog. Great stuff.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Should these speculations (on the future of humanity) be found doubtful or fallacious, there still remains a more humble source of comfort and hope. The discoveries of ancient and modern navigators, and the domestic history or tradition of the most enlightened nations, represent the human savage naked both in mind and body, and destitute of laws, of arts, of ideas, and almost of language. From this abject condition, perhaps the primitive and universal state of man, he has gradually arisen to command the animals, to fertilise the earth, to traverse the ocean, and to measure the heavens. His progress in the improvement and exercise of his mental and corporeal faculties has been irregular and various; infinitely slow in the beginning, and increasing by degrees with redoubled velocity: ages of laborious ascent have been followed by a moment of rapid downfall; and the several climates of the globe have felt the vicissitudes of light and
darkness. Yet the experience of four thousand years should enlarge our hopes and diminish our apprehensions: we cannot determine to what height the human species may aspire in their advance towards perfection; but it may safely be presumed that no people, unless the face of nature is changed, will relapse into their original barbarism.

The improvements of society may be viewed under a threefold aspect.

1. The poet or philosopher illustrates his age and country by the efforts of a single mind; but these superior powers of reason or fancy are rare and spontaneous productions; and the genius of Homer, or Cicero, or Newton, would excite less admiration if they could be created by the will of a prince or the lessons of a preceptor.

2. The benefits of law and policy, of trade and manufactures, of arts and sciences, are more solid and permanent; and many individuals may be qualified, by education and discipline, to promote, in their respective stations, the interest of the community. But this general order is the effect of skill and labour; and the complex machinery may be decayed by time, or injured by violence.

3. Fortunately for mankind, the more useful, or, at least, more necessary arts, can be performed without superior talents or national subordination; without powers of one, or the union of many. Each village, each family, each individual, must always possess both ability and inclination to perpetuate the use of fire and of metals; the propagation and service of domestic animals; the methods of hunting and fishing; the rudiments of navigation; the imperfect cultivation of corn or other nutritive grain; and the simple practice of the mechanic trades. Private genius and public industry may be extirpated, but these hardy plants survive the tempest, and strike an everlasting root into the most unfavourable soil. The splendid days of Augustus and Trajan were eclipsed by a cloud of ignorance; and the barbarians subverted the laws and palaces of Rome. But the scythe, the invention or emblem of Saturn, still continued annually to mow the harvests of Italy; and the human feasts of the Laestrigons have never been renewed on the coast of Campania.

Since the first discovery of the arts, war, commerce, and religious zeal have diffused among the savages of the Old and New World these inestimable gifts: they have been successively propagated; they can never be lost. We may therefore acquiesce in the pleasing conclusion that every age of the world has increased and still increases the real wealth, the happiness, the knowledge, and perhaps the virtue, of the human race." – Edward Gibbon, The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, edited by J. B. Bury, 7 vols. (1896-1902), vol. IV, pp. 160-169