Economics and Investing:

Reader H.L. mentioned another good reason to keep plenty of greenback cash on hand, for emergencies: Sandy Price Gouging Probed: $7 Loaf of Bread, $10 Box of Matches. [JWR Adds: The truth is that in a free market there is no such thing as “gouging”–just willing sellers, willing buyers and a floating free market price. Large demand, short supply, and minimal opportunities to restock necessitate higher prices. The state Attorney General might just as well attempt to hand out speeding tickets at the Indy 500. But of course, be charitable in disasters.]

At Fierce Finance: New York’s Financial district creaks back to life

Cash-free Greek communities take off while economy collapses

Last Jobs Report Before Election Shows Economy In Virtual Standstill

Items from The Economatrix:

Consumer Spending Picks Up, But Savings A Worry

Why Germany Wants To See Its US Gold

News Not Revealing Real Reasons For Economic Collapse

Global Economic Crisis:  EU’s Jobless Rate Hits New High Of 11.6%

Chinese Financial System On The Brink Of Collapse

Odds ‘n Sods:

Avalanche Lily and I recently watched a movie (via Netflix streaming) that we can recommend: Sarah’s Key. Yes, it is the umpteenth movie about the WWII Holocaust, but its particular value is that it shows how obediently the Vichy French authorities became collaborators of Nazi mass murder, and how indifferent the general populace was to the Jewish roundup and deportation. A good companion piece is the documentary The Eye of Vichy. Is there a Velodrome or Drancy in our future? God forbid. Be vigilant for our cherished liberty.

   o o o

Some quite troubling news from Canada: Mask Avengers: Protesters To Show Faces Or Get 10 Years In Jail. (The Stasi would have loved this.)

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Poor Prior Planning: NY Man Charged in Gas Hoarding Case. Anyone who attempts to transport gasoline in non-DOT approved containers can expect to face arrest. (Thanks to Chris P. for the link.)

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Shaq’s New Shack: The mainstream media seems confused as to why multi-millionaire Shaquille O’Neal would buy a relatively modest $235,000 house in Mount Dora, Florida. (His other house is a70,000 square foot mansion.) Well, I suppose that those reporters have never read Alas, Babylon. (“Fort Repose” was a fictionalized Mount Dora.) Shaq probably reads SurvivalBlog, too.

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James K. spotted this: Drive On: Doomsday truck lets you survive in style. Also see: Multicat Video.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Our emphasis in times of economic dislocation is reflective of our general emphasis on the individual, on productivity and creativity and on elements of community and cooperation. If we have a bias, then, it will be toward growing food rather than just buying it; toward hunting and fishing; toward being able to build rather than buy housing; toward general competence that abides in the individual rather that to the familiar patterns of consumerism." – Karl Hess, Editor, A Common Sense Strategy for Survivalists, p. 5, 1981

Notes from JWR:

Our friend Patrice Lewis (of the very entertaining Rural Revolution blog) reminded me that November is National Novel Writing Month. And November will indeed be an intensive writing month for me as I wrap up writing the remaining key passages of Expatriates. In a lucid dream, I finally came up with a method by which the Indonesians could attempt an invasion of Australia. I don’t want to spoil it, so I won’t give you any details. You’ll just have to wait until November of 2013 to find out…

—

This is the last day of the Ready Made Resources sale on Mountain House long term storage foods. They are offering 25% discounts and free shipping for Mountain House foods in #10 cans. The sale ends at midnight on November 5th.

Pat’s Product Review: Cold Steel Hold Out I

Make no mistake, given my druthers, I’d rather pick a large knife over a smaller knife. Now, you can get by with a smaller knife, but a larger knife can do more chores than most smaller knives can. When it comes to survival, on the streets, in the wilderness or in a SHTF scenario, my choice would be a larger knife for my needs, especially on the mean streets in our country.

My long-time friend, Lynn Thompson, who owns Cold Steel is a firm believer in big knives – either folders or fixed blade – and I can’t really find a lot of fault in his logic. Some months back, I did a review on the Cold Steel “Hold Out II” folding knife, and found it to be super-strong, and priced right, too. Now I’m commenting on the “Hold Out I” plain edge. Let’s get some of the specifications out of the way first: The blade length is 6″ – yes, you read that right SIX inches! It is made out of one of my favorite steels AUS 8A stainless – which I have found, over the years, to be a great compromise when it comes to price, as well as it holds a good edge a long time, and is fairly easy to re-sharpen. Overall length of the Hold Out I is 13 3/16″ – yeah, this hummer is big – even if it were a fixed blade knife. Blade thickness is 3.8mm – plenty of strength there! Weight is only 7.7-oz, so for such a massive knife, it is fairly light-weight. The handle material is G-10, some almost bullet-proof stuff that used to be used exclusively by custom knife makers. There is also a stainless steel clothing/pocket clip on the handle for ease of carry.

A quick review of this design goes back many years, as Lynn Thompson has always been fascinated with the “Black Knife” of Skean Dhu (Gaelic) of the ancient Scottish warriors. It was used as a utility or back-up knife, worn under the sleeve, tucked inside a jacket or slipped into the top of a stocking as it was thin, flat and pointy, and light as a feather. The Hold Out I features the record-breaking Tri-Ad lock, which is simply put, incredibly strong – you really need to check out the tests Cold Steel has performed on the Tri-Ad lock – you’ll find it on their web site – and you will be amazed at how strong this locking system is. Lynn Thompson isn’t afraid to put his knives to the test, and he proves it on his web site – I don’t know of any other knife company that provides this kind of proof on their web sites.

Okay, I know some of you, maybe most of you, are asking “really, a six inch bladed folding knife?” Yeah, and believe it or not, this thing isn’t as “clumsy” or hard to pack in pants pockets as you might think. Lynn Thompson usually carries two of the Hold Out I folders in his pants pockets – one on each side. At first, I also thought that this big of a folder would be a bit too much to carry in my cargo pants pocket. However, I hate to admit it, but I was wrong! I slipped the Hold Out I into my right front pants pocket and never gave it another thought – it just didn’t feel big or bulky in the least, not even when sitting at my PC for hours on end. Surprised? You bet I was!

The Hold Out I features a thin, acutely pointed tip that’s sharp as a needle – it can easily pierce some body armor as is glides effortlessly through many puncture resistant materials. Each blade is expertly hollow ground before being honed to a razor’s edge. And, I have said for many years, that Cold Steel set the gold standard for “sharp” when it comes to knives. Once word got out as to how sharp Cold Steel knives were, right out of the box, everyone else had to either jump on the band wagon or get left in the dust. Lynn Thompson is the “King Of Sharp”, if you ask me.

The G-10 handle scales are worth a mention, they offer a palm-hugging profile and a thin, flat lightly checkered cross section that resists rolling or twisting in the hand, while remaining comfortable and versatile enough to accommodate a wide variety of gripping styles – I know, I tried! The G-10 handle scales have several holes drilled through them, to lighten the overall weight of the knife, and aid in the balance. There are also friction grooves on the top back of the blade, for proper thumb placement in the fencing grip. Dual thumb studs on the blade aid in quick opening of the blade as well.

I can see the Hold Out I working as a wilderness survival knife, as well as an urban defender. I showed this sample to a lot of folks, and they simply couldn’t believe I was carrying a knife “that big” in my pants pocket. When the knife is opened, it will surely get anyone’s attention in short order. It reminds me of Mick Dundee saying: “That’s a knife…”  That’s the same comment you’ll be giving a bad guy if you are forced to pull the Hold Out I for self-defense. Believe me, the mere sight of this massive folder will probably be more than enough to make someone wish they had picked an easier target. As a wilderness survival knife – I found I could actually do some serious chopping with it – and the Tri-Ad lock never gave a hint of letting loose – the blade stayed open and firmly locked! The Hold Out I can easily replace packing a fixed blade knife on a camping trip or in a bug-out scenario – I kid you not. I’m a firm believe of less is more – and if I can get by with less, I’m a happy camper…and I believe you can get by just fine with the Hold Out I instead of a fixed blade knife in a SHTF scenario. This is one knife that you need to have in your bug-out bag – seriously!

I liked how fast the Hold Out I was in my hand – it was really faster than many smaller folding knives in different fighting grips. You can also choke-up on the handle for more precise cutting, or move your hand all the way down to the bottom of the handle, extending your reach by several inches in a self-defense situation, or for chopping purposes – we’re talking VERY versatile.

I have to admit, when I first opened-up the box the Hold Out I came in, the first thing to cross my mind was “Really, this is too big for a folder.” Yes, I was wrong. The Hold Out I will grow on you very fast, and will become a favorite for EDC (Every Day Carry) if you give it a chance. You’ll forget you’re carrying such a big folding knife, until you pull it out to use it. If someone pulled this knife out on me, I’d be heading to the hills – I wouldn’t want to fight against this knife unarmed! My Glock 23 or 27 would be clearing leather – I’m not about to face this knife without being well-armed! Even an untrained person could cause you serious harm with the Hold Out I simply by slashing out at you – keep your distance, simple as that.

As with all Cold Steel products, I believe you get more for your money – you can spend a lot more, but will you really be getting more? The Hold Out I has a full-retail of $159.99 and if you paid full-retail, you’d be getting a heck of a knife. However, you can shop around and find the Hold Out I for less money if you spend a little time on the ‘net. Even if you don’t, you’ll be getting one heck of a folder if you paid full-retail. You will impress your friends and family when you pull the Hold Out I out of your pocket and start doing some cutting chores – you’ll even impress yourself, as to what you can do with this folder. You can also get the Hold Out I with a partially serrated blade, too. So, you have a couple choices there. If you’re looking for one knife, to do many chores, then the Hold Out I might just be what you’re looking for – it can easily replace a fixed blade knife, and it can do most chores that are called upon by smaller folders. – SurvivalBlog Field Gear Editor Pat Cascio

Letter Re: Gas Can Pack Boards and Cargo Shelves

Jim:
All the recent news stories showing people in New Jersey on foot queuing up at gas stations with red gas cans in hand, reminded me: gas cans are heavy! Did anyone think to put a old fashioned Pack Board in with the rest of the supplies? You know the kind, the one with the lip at the bottom? It would hold a two full gas cans with much less strain than carrying them in your hands. Or, how about taking a small load of fire wood to your relatives’ house? Just a thought. – Dale K.

JWR Replies: That is a valuable reminder. In addition to the older-generation military pack boards, keep in mind that ALICE Series (LC-1 and LC-2) backpack frames can have a cargo shelf clipped on, for the same effect. There are also commercially made (civilian) equivalent packs, like those made by Stansport and formerly by Kelty. These are often used by people who own remote “pack-in” or “ski-in” cabins, and for those who work at fire lookout towers that are only accessible by foot.

Letter Re: Laptop Becomes Oscilloscope and Waveform Generator

Jim:
I’d like to tell the readers about an amazingly affordable electronics workbench tool that turns you laptop into an oscilloscope, and a lot more: Analog Discovery. This one card can
replace $10,000 worth of other gear. The student version is just $99. See a quick summary of the specifications.

I think that this is the Pico scope taken to the next level. This puts AM radio, FM radio, radar, sonar, ultrasound, spread-spectrum radio for secure communications, encryption tools for running secure comms over otherwise insecure channels, high-bandwidth servocontrol of machinery and countless other modern technologies in hands of the garage inventors, small businesses and university research groups. At my company we’ve been using much more expensive versions of this technology for a while.

The Digilent Analog Discovery design kit, developed in conjunction with Analog Devices Inc., is the first in a new line of all-in-one analog design kits that will enable engineering students to quickly and easily experiment with advanced technologies and build and test real-world, functional analog design circuits anytime, anywhere – right on their PCs. For the price of a textbook, students can purchase a low-cost analog hardware development platform and components, with access to downloadable teaching materials, reference designs and lab projects to design and implement analog circuits as a supplement to their core engineering curriculum.

The specs:

Dual 14-bit 105 MSPS ADC
Dual 14-bit 125 MSPS DAC
16 digital I/Os at 100 MSPS
Programmable power supply

It is designed to be an oscilloscope/AWG/logic analyser/digital pattern generator, so the usual caveats (5 MHz analogue input bandwidth) apply for such a device, but the screenshots
of the software look quite nice and Mac OS X and Linux versions are promised.

Like many here, I’m not too interested in this class of oscilloscope, but assuming it’s hackable it could be the basis for a cheap software defined radio transceiver. It doesn’t look like a schematic diagram is available, but Digilent often provides them. We’ll have to wait and see after it’s released.

Here is a write-up in EE Times: Disruption in the engineering classroom

And, one in EDN: The joys of tinkering, by Robert J. Bowman, Professor of Electrical Engineering, Rochester Institute of Technology.

Regards, – Chris M.

Three Letters Re: Hurricane Sandy After Action Reports

James:
Let me first say we are doing well compared to the rest of the folks here on Long Island , NY . I am no hard core prepper but believe strongly that the need is there. We are in Nassau County and are served by LIPA, the Long Island Power Authority. As I write there are about 300,000 people here without power. Some of the things I have witnessed are very sad indeed and we were blessed to have our power back within two days.
 
South of where we live along the water the houses have had their basements flooded out. Even with prior storms my in-laws who live near the water had their basement flooded to the ledger board on their foundation. The water has never gotten that high since they have lived there for over fifty years. Everything in their basement was ruined. They had built up a sand berm but the water kept coming and then rushed into the basement, carrying the sand with it. Note to self, use sand bags. Upon entering their neighborhood the people were all on the streets taking their ruined belongings and bringing them to the curb. Everyone of them as I drove by had the “Thousand Yard Stare” made famous in pictures and photographs from World War II. We were able to give my in-laws our generator after they returned to their house. They bugged out to a hotel in a dry area of Long Island . Their Hotel lost power for a day.
 
Things that got us through the storm.
 
Trees
Over the past few years we have removed large trees that, had they fallen the right way, would have cut out house in two. We have three pre-teens and could not have dealt with their loss. After both my wife and I grew up near open water and the associated wind that can come off the water we learned not to have overhanging trees. While the shade generated from them cut out cooling bills, it’s just not worth it if you, or god forbid, your loved ones lose their life.
 
You need a generator (period)
Get a generator strong enough to power your refrigerator, a radio and a few lights. This saved us from having to throw out our newly purchased foods. We are fortunate to have both an old refrigerator (which seems to last much longer than the new ones with planned obsolescence built in, we are never getting rid of it) and a new one. The new one has better insulation. So what we did was take the ice from the ice maker and kept it in the freezer in zip-lock bags. This helped us build us the cooling thermal mass. We kept on letting the ice maker make more ice and put it in bags rather than letting the trip bar stop the ice making. If you think you don’t need a generator then get one anyway when there is a sale because someone you know will need it and being charitable may save someone’s life. After the storm here it got down into the 30’s and people froze in their houses.
 
Stock up on gasoline and stabilize it before the storm.
The Coast Guard shut the ports in NY which supply gasoline here and there are now huge lines for gas. We had about fifteen gallons in the garage and used about half of it before our power came back and we gave the rest to the in-laws to power their pumps to pump out their basement. We could have used a lot more gasoline. (check your local ordinances for storage limits) Again, learning from this instance, if you live in a low-lying area, rethink what you have in your basement. It was never this bad before and they lost everything in their basement.
 
Digitize every picture of sentimental value.
 
On the local news channel most people returned to their home to see if they could salvage any pictures. I can not tell you how sad I found this. If you are like some of my relatives and have, over the years amassed footlockers full of pictures maybe outsourcing is a good solution. Since we take digital pictures now, we save them on our hard drive and back them up to an external one terabyte USB hard drive. If we ever had to bug out we’d just take the USB drive and boogey.
 
Emergency food
Emergency food has helped us out. We went the canned route and slowly purchased canned meals like Ravioli with Meatballs and had them in-hand for use. We need to work on this as we were running out of milk and a few other items for the kids (lessons learned).
 
Water
 
While camping this Summer in New England we went pretty deep into the Maine woods to Baxter State Park . There was no running water and we had to carry it in with the pickup. We used hanging bag showers to clean ourselves and we carried in about 10 gallons of water for a couple of days. Get yourself a good storage container for clean water. We used two five gallon Coleman water containers but a few milk containers with screw-on lids (Sterilized) would have helped.
 
Security
 
While it could have gotten to an apocalyptic TEOTWAWKI situation here the big drama on “The Island” was as the gas pumps with fights breaking out as people tried to cut each other in line. One man was arrested for taking out a pistol. There is and was looting in other areas where homes are damaged and abandoned. Thankfully I did not have to rely on all the NRA patches I earned when I was a kid (I got to Barr III )
 
Batteries
 
Batteries and power for “Crackberries” were a pretty big story here. In New York City people who had power ran power lines to the street to let others charge their cell phones. I use a battery back up pack for my phone and fill it with four double-a rechargeable batteries and keep them charged at all times. Link .This doubles my battery life but when the area lost power…so did the cell towers. So I’ll be studying for the Ham technician license. We have four hand held FRS walkie talkies that my son won in a Boy Scout Raffle a few years ago and it did not get to the point where we needed them. But they are great fun to use in the shopping mall to find your lost kids at no cost.
 
Transportation
Walkability is how friendly your area is to walking. If you have to travel everywhere by car…in our current situation with gas shortages you’d be walking everywhere to get your food and supplies. While this has great health benefits you may end up burning more calories than you can take in. Get a bike and a hand operated bike pump with either a rack or basket to carry items. I need to get a hand operated air pump as I’ve been relying on the air compressor and it never occurred to me.
 
Psychological lessoned learned
 
Having survived the horrific scenes of 9/11 and losing many former colleagues (another  story for another day) and of the 2004 blackout here in NY, I learned that yes, you have to get your news from the media but if you watch the TV 24/7 you will lose your mind and get really really depressed. Get up from the “Idiot Box” as my parents used to call it and “Move a muscle and change a thought”. Getting up and around rather than hunkering down in your foxhole makes you feel “Big and Strong”.
 
Flaws and future plans
 
What I have learned is that a lot of people here needed our help. My in-laws come for dinner every night. They needed my generator when I was done with it. Our friends needed our extra heaters as they got their power back but their boiler (in the basement) was trashed and could not heat their house. Plan on being generous. Maybe someday it will come back to you as you have paid it forward.
 
I need to reconsider where we live. Right now I am unemployed from the financial community here in NY and have worked in Project Management and I am PMP certified. Hopefully the wife and kids will buy-in to the idea. Being a conservative in NY has not suited me well. My father had his life saved by a Naval Scholarship as his dad died at an early age from sclerosis of the liver (as my friend Bill says, he never took the first step).
I tried to join the Military but was unable to pass the physical due to a slight limp, I still got my pilots license though. I have not flown since 1995.
 
Hopefully my Project Management Experience will be able to help me pick up a job in another field somewhere safe. I have worked in banking and software development as a project manager and business analysis. I have traded for the worlds largest commodities firm (at the time) and know a bit about financial derivatives. Enough to know that it’s not the product but the greed behind it that ruins everything. So long as a trading desk is very profitable everybody in management leaves them alone. I’ve seen some pretty smart people (on paper) “Blow-up” and lose everything and then I’ve seen some pretty “street smart” kids make a killing.
 
In summation, while I’m no hard core prepper, I got by with the help from God and family. The 5 P’s are burned into my memory like a scar. Proper Preparation Produces Perfect Performance. Yes, I know there are derivatives of this saying. I was very happy to help other people. Because as soon as I got out of feeling sorry for myself I was able to feel great in helping others. This by the way has saved my life in another aspect. I’m an alcoholic and if I had not learned the lessons I had over half a decade ago things would have only gotten worse in this tragedy and I would not have my wits about me nor my family as they would have left many years ago.
 
I hope this has helped you. Best, – One Lucky Guy (and family).
 

Dear Rawles Family,
I have been an avid reader of your blog for about seven years. You actually recently featured a link on your blog to my radio show on blog talk radio called The Homeschool Homemaker where I discussed what Homeschoolers and Homemakers can learn from Preppers. I followed that with a radio show on how to prep for Sandy. I will be doing a follow up show shortly as the power was just now restored after being out for six days.
 
Your blog has changed my life.
 
The Good Lord Almighty and you are responsible for two proud moments in my life this last week. One, when I walked into Sam’s Club last Saturday morning among HUNDREDS of people in full fledged panic and a smart alec greeter at the door said snidely “If you are here for supplies we are out of generators, water, batteries and lots of other stuff.” I was able to just as smugly say back to him, “Then I guess it is a good thing that I already have those things on hand at home.” He looked genuinely shocked. I spent the next two hours avoiding panic stricken mobs, taking my children through the store and teaching them what they should have on hand at all times and forcing them to watch other people’s behavior. I told them what they could use as substitutes. I was able to get together a large list of wants (these were not needs as if I had to I could have survived at home, just not in luxury) and provisions for expected/unexpected guests. I shudder to think of what was going through the minds of those who needed those supplies and couldn’t find them anywhere. Those poor people.
 
The second was when we were able to provide shelter to some friends who badly needed it. They said it was like coming to a luxury hotel, and were able to take warm showers, have a large hot meal and tuck themselves and their children into warm beds. It was a joy. They remarked upon seeing how we were weathering things, “You are the most prepared people I have ever met!”. It was an honor to show hospitality in the name of the Lord in a time of trouble.
 
Here are some things I can share that may help my fellow readers.
 
1. Preparedness needs to be consistent, constant and progressive.
Had I waited till just the threat of Sandy was here I would not have been prepared to the level of comfort, maybe only to the level of survival.
For the last seven years we have moved, purchased and trained guard dogs, increased security, tucked ourselves into a small and preparedness minded community (hard to find for NJ) and slowly accumulated high quality items with long term preparedness goals in mind. This cannot be done in a week, not even in a month. It makes a HUGE difference.
 
2. Everything you say is true regarding the progression of things. It truly progressed in that fashion. People ignored the warnings, then were terrified when the storm hit, then panicked when they saw the aftermath. It is heartbreaking to see and I am not even in that immediate area. In my immediate area it is more that the cold and frustration was taking over, but the few neighbors who were not prepared quickly got out of town or found a way to manage. This is not what is happening in other areas.
 There is widespread looting. There is genuine hunger, thirst and terror. Others are moving from place to place as they don’t want to be a burden. Prices are skyrocketing and people seem to have lost the good sense God gave them. This is not where the storm damage is, it is just where the power is out!
 
3.We had an attempted break in on my street last night that happened within five minutes of the Husband leaving. Dogs stopped it. Someone tried my doors the night before. My dogs stopped it. The day after the storm my neighborhood was inundated with people looking for work or just looking. My guard dogs took care of that, but scams and criminals abound in even the areas not hard hit. If you have a choice between a security system and dogs, go with the dogs every time.
 
I will just say that many times when I have read here I have had a hard time accepting all of your advice. Thinking things would never progress that quickly or that bad. I was wrong. Just days in, you had to be very careful who knew you had hot water. People were starting to remark on who seemed to be living the high life and who wasn’t. You can see where this can quickly go.
 
Thanks to you, I was frying up chicken with mashed potatoes and drinking hot chocolate with whipped cream the day after the hurricane hit. I assumed we would not be able to leave the house as we would have to guard the generator and we were able to hold tight nearly a week now.
 
Of course now the shelves are all bare and the pumps are being rationed AND we have a huge snow storm coming. I am sorry for those who will lose even more.
 
This has helped me practice many preps, test them out and clarified places for improvement. People who mocked are now listening. People who thought that security wasn’t an issue if you “didn’t live in that type of area” have come to the horrifying realization that people who want to break in don’t have to live next to you to be a danger.
 
I am afraid we are in for much more because of the snow storm coming, but we shall see.
 
Thank you for all you do! – The Homeschool Homemaker

 

Jim:
I’m grateful to you for sharing my post-Sandy updates. There is a “comfort” in reaching people. Here is Storm Update # 5:
 
Sunday morning. Relationships. They matter more than ever in an emergency. Yesterday, we burned through the decent firewood. We are now down to the rot. Before Sandy, I had contacted a landscaper to remove this stuff to make space for a new load. However, it fell to the wayside, in part because I had other priorities, and also because I was using this junk wood in our backyard fire pit. I logged in a call to the contractor who had provided us with firewood for the last seven years – his Fall advertisement was still on my desk. He remembered us, and though he was delivering in upstate Pennsylvania with orders backed-up, he understood the circumstances here and promised to deliver a heaping cord tomorrow. I thanked him, and headed out to clean-up our wood stack. This took several hours. The rot went into the mulch piles, which left two empty six by six inch railroad ties clear for the new wood. I also repositioned our eight-foot metal fireplace holder. Good to go.
 
Next, I turned to refilling the genny. I was mixing the stabilized emergency gasoline that had been under the tarp since last Spring, with the new gasoline I had obtained Friday. Normally, I would do first in, first out, but I didn’t want to risk the genny with bad fuel. While pouring the gas, our neighbor from behind the house (Mike) surprised me with a visit. He lives on a different street, and our last encounter had been testy as he had attempted to dig a drainage line over our property without permission. Don’t get me wrong, we resolved that episode. He had apologized, laying the blame on his contractor. Without rehashing the details, suffice to say that this was a knowing incursion onto our property. Still, I was of a mind to let there be peace.
 
Mike and I chatted for a while. He was cooking the last of his freezer meat on the barbecue – thus he had seen me – and was also a bit freaked. Though our prior encounter had not been the warmest, he was looking for camaraderie. Most of the neighbors on his side were also gone, and he never imagined that power-down could happen for a week in NJ! His genny, like ours, was also wired into critical systems. He had gasoline issues, food supplies in his basement and a baseball bat by the bed. He and his wife were “creeped out” at night. They had signed up for firearm instruction, but that was next month. Short story – I extended the olive branch, and told him I’d watch his back and to let me know if he needs anything. He agreed to do the same for us. I didn’t give him every detail on our situation, but enough. Relationships – they do matter. Perhaps one can be an island as a “prepper” in a hardened bunker in the Redoubt, but in my experience the folks that truly understand survival always acknowledge that it takes cooperation by a team of like-minded adults and children.
 
While I was busy at the house, my wife (Steph) was making a run to Whole Foods to see about fresh food. We got word through our friends on Twitter that the store was open, had generator power and had received a delivery. I reminded her that as the pet store was in the same shopping center, try to buy whatever bags they had available of Aslan’s dry dog food. I had bought two 20-pound bags pre-Sandy, but he’s a 70 pound shepherd and he rips through the chow.
 
Steph returned a few hours later with groceries. The entire shopping center was dark except Whole Foods. Fortunately, the pet store owners had set up a table outside and were walking customers in one at a time with a flashlight – cash only of course. She bought their last 20-pound bag and a few chewy treats.
 
Goods were unloaded, dishes hand washed, fireplace stoked, lanterns checked (fresh batteries for the non-rechargeables), dog walked and dinner cooked. Steph had purchased a mashed cauliflower side from Whole Foods, but upon sampling it in the pan with the onions, she tossed it. Spoiled. Lesson learned… she would ask for a taste at the store before buying any prepared items. After dinner – it’s dark, cold and windy – I did the genny refueling for the night, and observed that it was running a hair rougher to my ear. Note to self: could be the fuel mix, but six days of 24-hour running means that tomorrow I need to check the oil, carburetor, fuel line, etc.
 
Turning to the Shore, and a bit of positive news: I confirmed that mom had checked into the hotel. Eventually, we spoke via the mobile. Her phone battery charger had died the other day and she was otherwise busy with contractors, insurance adjusters, FEMA reps, etc. She had brought enough food with her from Pennsylvania, and in South Jersey, gasoline was not as much of a problem. As for our family home on the beach block, pretty much as expected. The garage had four feet of sand, the doors were destroyed from the waves and everything inside was history. The basement of the home (which is more like a first floor due to the home’s elevation) was trashed, a total loss of all systems (HVAC, pumps, washer, dryer, electrical, freezer, etc.). There was a foot of sand to dig out and everything will have to be removed to the foundation before the mold gets a grip. Thankfully, the first floor and above – having been built high in 1938 and all windows boarded-up for Sandy – suffered minimal damage. Mom told me that the local supermarket will not open for several days, but that other stores are beginning to show signs of life. The overall damage to the City is huge, and there is a foul “smell” in the air. She will do the back-and-forth from the house to the hotel until things are repaired. The only dependable contractor that has been helping her is the carpenter that our family has known for decades. Again, it’s all about relationships.
 
This isn’t the most riveting update, but life is all about the little things. Sometimes they take more energy than we imagine, and it wears you down. Our family realizes that our situation is so much better than that of others in NJ and NY, as well as other regions of the country. In part, that’s through our decisions and actions, but luck also plays a role. I’m told that power should be restored today, and that although our daughters’ school has one building without power or fire alarms, the main building will be open for classes tomorrow – Monday.
 
Best wishes to all. This might be the last update – in a good way. – Bill H.

Three Letters Re: Forget Codes: Using Constructed Languages for Secure Communication

Jim:
The article on constructed languages [by Snow Wolf] was fascinating. Just two concerns: An outsider might be able to crack your code based on repeated grammar. As was mentioned in the letter, “sentences follow the common subject-verb-object pattern”. This pattern is predictable and could help a very intelligent decoder. Also your activity can be observed after communication, helping one define terms.

Both of these concerns can be mitigated with re-aligning, as mentioned in the letter. So take care not to overlook that step.

Finally, if every tip in this article (such as re-aligning and custom grammar) were practiced, and on top of this was layered a nice encryption method, such as was described in the 9/11/12 letter, you’d seriously give an enemy a run for their money!

I know this is true, for during WWII, Navajo-speakers were employed for code talking; that is, the messages were first translated into Navajo and then encrypted. Navajo almost fully qualifies as a constructed language. The following is from Wikipedia:

“Navajo was an attractive choice for code use because few people outside the Navajo themselves had ever learned to speak the language. Virtually no books in Navajo had ever been published. Outside of the language itself, the Navajo spoken code was not very complex by cryptographic standards and would likely have been broken if a native speaker and trained cryptographers worked together effectively. The Japanese had an opportunity to attempt this when they captured Joe Kieyoomia in the Philippines in 1942 during the Bataan Death March. Kieyoomia, a Navajo Sergeant in the U.S. Army, but not a code talker, was ordered to interpret the radio messages later in the war. However, since Kieyoomia had not participated in the code training, the messages made no sense to him. When he reported that he could not understand the messages, his captors tortured him. Given the simplicity of the alphabet code involved, it is probable that the code could have been broken easily if Kieyoomia’s knowledge of the language had been exploited more effectively by Japanese cryptographers. The Japanese Imperial Army and Navy never cracked the spoken code.”

Jim,
The recent submission, “Forget Codes…” while interesting, seems to neglect one rather important point: what the author is suggesting IS a code, and a fairly simple one at that!

Rather than substituting symbols for letters or letters for each other, this code is substituting words for other words. That the substituted words are made up isn’t of any consequence at all.

What is proposed is thus a substitution cipher and like all such ciphers, can and will be cracked by a determined individual or group. It is more complex than the simple Caesar Ciphers we used as children to keep our “secret clubs” secret, but it’s not a secure cipher by any means.

All that is needed to crack it is a sufficient collection of enciphered phrases and some indication of their meaning. These meanings could be gotten by intercepting the enciphered communication and observation of events before or after the communication. The group using the code could even be baited by an enemy into using words – for example, if I walk down the road near their BOL and drop a handful of ammunition on the ground, I can bet the encoded word “ammunition” will be used by their patrol when they report back in. Knowing their word for ammunition could be valuable, no? If the situation is such that I could safely allow myself to be observed while walking down the road, I might also get the words “man”, “stranger” or “dropped”. From there the process of deciphering unknown words snowballs.

Using the examples provided by the author:

puq tf urr (There’s a man in the house.)

cg wzn (A stranger is coming.)

igy cg tf urr (Shoot the stranger in the house.)

aok cg tf f (Watch out for a stranger in a vehicle.)

puq fh bx tf urr (A man with a gun is in the house.)

…and with NO reference to the key, which is now out of sight, I can see that the word “house” is used in sentences 1, 3 and 5. The only code words used in all three sentences are tf and urr. One of those means house. Those sentences also have something else in common, as there is another word repeated – that is the state of “in-ness” – being in the house. A look at sentence 4 disambiguates: it is lacking a reference to “house” and is also missing the word “urr”. Urr thus means “house” leaving “tf” to refer to in-ness. As further confirmation it refers to someone who is “in” a vehicle and contains the word “tf”. Tf thus definitely means “in”. A little more thought along the same lines reveals that the “man” in sentences 1 and 5 is represented by the word “puq” and that the remaining words in sentence 5, “fh bx”, mean “with a gun”. A larger sample would be needed to tease those two words apart. It would probably only take another sentence or two before the word “with” appeared without “gun”, answering that question.

The plaintext is the key! Given enough samples, the key can be extracted from the text.

This cipher could be very useful if dealing with a short-term situation with a transient enemy but would become useless against a long-term neighboring enemy very quickly and suggesting that it could resist the efforts of a government is craziness.

The only way a cipher like this can remain secure is if all of the facts conveyed using it also remain unknown to the observer. This is a common weakness among substitution ciphers. Whether it is letter, digram or trigram frequency analysis for letter substitution ciphers – or analysis of the use and reuse of code words for word substitution ciphers – the weakness is the same. With a more secure cipher knowing some of the plaintext (or in this case, the information conveyed) doesn’t get you even one step closer to deciphering the /next/ bit of text.

Those interested in the subject of encryption would do well to check out “Cryptanalysis – A Study of Ciphers and Their Solution” by Helen Fouche Gaines. It is a well regarded “beginning to intermediate” text on many cipher schemes, some quite difficult to crack. Applied Cryptography by Bruce Schneier contains great coverage and explanations of security and encryption, especially with regard to electronic communication.

Finally, as far as I know there is only one cipher that is known to be unbreakable if properly implemented, and that is the “one time pad”. When I say unbreakable I mean unbreakable even by the wealthiest and most powerful governments. It is extremely simple but suffers from a few difficulties and limitations, the primary one being that the keys must be exchanged before any encoding can take place. Two others are that it requires the generation of a very random collection of data used as the encryption key (the pad) and pads can *never* be reused (or you’ll introduce the very same weakness I illustrated above). It is well worth looking into and if you decide to use it, generate and exchange pads *now*. If you can’t build a device to collect cosmic noise for random data then decent pad data can be (or used to be) gotten from www.random.org. In the event someone intercepts your pad data, it is unlikely they will also be the person out to raid your BOL!

Best, – Matt R.

James:
I was surprised to see you publish the article on “Forget Codes: Using Constructed Languages,” it has to be one of the single most dangerously flawed pieces of writing I have seen on your web site. It seems based on an understanding of cryptography and mathematics set shortly after the Victorian era of heiroglyphics decryption. We have come a LONG way since then. The author is WRONG, and following his advice leaves ones communications completely vulnerable. I do not leave my argument up to a difference of style or opinion. I do not base my argument on petty infighting of Glock vs Everything else, or other arcane arguments that appear on Internet fora. My argument is based on undergraduate level mathematics and statistics. 

Yes, constructed language will serve to keep conversation “secure” in the setting of overheard conversations in the local watering hole. For that matter, I can’t follow the conversation of the waiters at my local Cantonese restaurant. Constructed language might even serve a small groups security purposes in the local AO. However, make no mistake, the concept is tragically flawed when discussed in terms of security and cryptography.

By its very nature, what is being discussed is a substitution cipher. Yes, the author suggested playing some games in the construct and lingui/grammatical foundations. There is also an attempt to change “hash” on a pseudo-random basis. Or to even change keys on some time period (t.) Ultimately, should we follow the authors advice and not even substitute for each word in the dictionary, but instead a common subset of oft used nouns and actions, we are talking about a frequency breakage of a mere (in the authors suggestion) 300 factors. Lets be generous and quadruple this to 1200 words. Or change the hash 3 times, and come up with a factor of 3600. We would not even require computer horsepower to break this “code” using modern mathematics. It can be done by anyone with a basic background in statistics, a few pages of notepaper, and 5-10 pages of message intercepts or transcripts to analyze.

I heartily agree with the philosophy of grounding ourselves in secure communications. But please dear reader, do NOT create a security system that is based on radically flawed assumptions. Heck, do not even trust me on this topic. If you are serious about security, do your own research. You will likely find, that the constructed language concept was debunked shortly after Turing moved beyond water filled tubes and the first computers began number crunching. I should also note that there are now linguistic breakages, as opposed to purely statistical (I hate his politics, but Chomsky is brilliant on language commonalities.) Turing machines used brute force, now we have algorithms to assist, along with the Moore’s Law logarithmic increase in brute force of computing power.

If you are truly interested in secure communication, there are many excellent and free resources.
-The book Cryptonomicon by Stephenson is an excellent novel, and contains an appendix on creating a Solitaire code based on decks of cards.
–Bruce Schneir, one of the worlds experts on cryptography has an excellent blog, and free monthly newsletter. In it, he discusses politics, security theater, snake oil ideas in security, cryptography, software, etc. Free, excellent, and from one of the modern day godfathers in the field.
–Human Rights Watch (say what you will about their politics) has an excellent resource for folks working in hostile environments, who require secure comms from the field.
–PGP and Open PGP (likely breakable by large resources such as the NSA) are free, and there are numerous reputable resources discussing its implementation.
-Read up on Onion routing (not entirely secure, but a good step amongst many needed,) one time pads (very secure, but laborious, and should be implemented with a second authentication factor,) key lengths, and hash functions.
–Open source philosophy of security i.e. public testing of all mathematical and programming functions. Also see: ISECom.

In closing, I could completely pull apart the suggestion of security via constructed language using mathematical arguments, and logical analysis. Lets just leave it at this – PLEASE do some research before you accept that suggestion as gospel to be deployed in securing your loved ones. My entire purpose is to save lives, and letting that article stand is like me not shouting FIRE in a burning building. It is a flawed course of action, potentially fatally.

Wishing gods blessings, of peace and health to all. – CypherPunkPrepper

JWR Replies: I agree completely that substitution ciphers and constructed languages only provide a very weak form of encryption. They might suffice if your opponent is just a criminal looter gang, but they absolutely will not hold up to the scrutiny of any government agency.

Recipe of the Week:

Enola Gay‘s Survival Bars (aka Filled Oatmeal Cookies)

My Survival Bars are “Filled Oatmeal Cookies”. They are wonderful “stored foods” cookies, full of fiber and packed with nutrients. They are our cookie of choice for a quick breakfast. They are great if you are out hunting or hiking. They require no fresh ingredients!

They are also good! Our neighbor girl says they are the best cookies that I have ever made (and I make a lot of cookies!) I got the recipe from my dear friend “Lady Day”. Here is the recipe.

1 1/2 C. Shortening (or lard or butter)
1 1/2 C. Brown sugar
1 1/2 tsp. Vanilla
1 1/2 tsp. baking soda mixed with 6 T. hot Water
3 C. Oatmeal (I use thick cut)
3 C. Flour (may use white or whole wheat)
1/4 tsp. Nutmeg
1 1/2 tsp. Salt

Combine shortening, sugar, and vanilla. Mix well. Add soda in water, nutmeg, salt, flour. Stir in oatmeal. Add more water or flour to make a nice, workable dough. Roll out thin. Cut out with round cookie or biscuit cutter (or whatever shape floats your boat). Lay cookies on cookie sheet, place desired filling on them (1 tsp. or so) and top with another cookie. Bake at 350 degrees for 8 to 10 minutes or until lightly browned. There is no need to seal the edges. My preference for filling is raspberry or blackberry jam. However, any kind of jam would be wonderful or you could use a raisin filling (good stored foods item).

Raisin filling:
Grind or chop fine 1 1/2 to 2 C. raisins, dates or prunes. Add 1 C. sugar and 1 C. water. Bring to a boil. Mix 2 tsp. cornstarch with a little water for thickening.

Chef’s Notes:

I often make these cookies with a drizzle of frosting on them. This certainly isn’t necessary, but sometimes I want them to be a little fancy.

JWR Adds: For the original recipe post (with some photos), see Enola Gay’s great Paratus Familia blog site. (One of our favorite blogs.)

Useful Recipe and Cooking Links:

Over at Sustainable Preparedness: Recipe for Canning Beans

Patrice Lewis recently posted a great curried chicken recipe.

Currently Available as Free Kindle e-Books:

The Art of Perfect Bread Baking

Desserts for Winter

How to Cook Steak: The 5 Step Formula for the Perfect Steak

Do you have a favorite recipe that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers? Please send it via e-mail. Thanks!

Economics and Investing:

The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever. (Thanks to R.D.F. for the link.)

Over at The Motley Fool: Three Facts About the Economy That Should Freak You Out

Hyperinflation Alert: QE Infinity Is The Only Thing Delaying A Complete Systemic Collapse But Now The Fed Is Out Of Short Dated Bonds

Items from The Economatrix:

Labor Department “Working Hard” To Ensure Jobs Report Released On Time

Firings Highest Since 2010 As Ford To Dow Face Slump

Russian Ship Missing With 700 Tons Of Gold Ore

Real Fiscal Cliff–Currency And Bond Collapse

Food Stamp Creation 75X Greater Than Job Creation

Economists Say Jobs Data To Have Little Impact On US Elections:  Reuters Poll

Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader Dana H. suggested this in The Wall Street Journal: Lessons from the Ultimate Safe Houses

   o o o

In New York’s Public Housing, Fear Creeps In With the Dark. J.W.R.’s Comment: Now extrapolate this to a situation where there is no natural gas pressure, and no water pressure for the fire hydrants. Oh, and what if there was no prospect of grid power being restored for weeks… Somehow, I think I’ll be much safer here in TUWS.

   o o o

A Utah Perspective on Sandy (No, not Sandy, Utah, but rather Hurricane Sandy): Caught in the dark: What Sandy can teach you about preparedness

   o o o

Some of Mayor Bloomberg’s “Free Gasoline” is being transported in containers that would give a Fire Marshall apoplexy.)

   o o o

FEMA’s vaunted “lean forward” strategy that called for advanced staging of supplies for emergency distribution failed to live up to its billing in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The idea that living within your means is a form of austerity, and not (other than in exceptional circumstances) the elementary moral duty of people of honor, shows that, underlying the economic crisis is a profound moral crisis in western society." – Theodore Dalrymple (A retired prison doctor and psychiatrist, contributing editor of the City Journal and Dietrich Weissman Fellow of the Manhattan Institute.)

Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 43 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. and G.) A $200 gift certificate, donated by Shelf Reliance.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. B.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, E.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 43 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Letter Re: Possible Survival Uses of Theatrical Blood

As the Halloween season came and went, I had to accompany my  boys to the seasonal Halloween store that opens up for about 2 months in some obscure, rented building. My trip with them looked at masks, costumes and an aisle or two dedicated to make-up supplies as well. I passed by the face paint, the hair coloring and the fangs, but then my eyes spied a series of tubes containing “blood”, and then small bottles of it and even a couple of very large containers all containing the bright red, sticky, usually non-toxic theatrical blood. Being a prepper at heart, my mind usually runs items I see through a mental rubric for deciding if something has any “prepper value” for my survival or my ability to barter. Through this mental maze, there exists a matrix of questions that falls under personal defense and tactics. Could theatrical blood have any tactical value to my survival situation? Yes, I think it could. Knowing that the day after Halloween the products would be 50% off helped make it all the more affordable.

My first idea was for first aid training. My sons have practiced bandaging a large wound, pressure points and even splinting a compound fracture of the humerus or femur. All of these events were practiced clean in a very unrealistic setting where they were told to “imagine” the wound that they were working on. The addition of the fake blood would add a note of realism to the scene. The nice clean area they were bandaging gets transformed into a gooey, sticky red mess with sand, leaves and other debris from the ground worked in. As preppers, first aid could include puncture wounds, gunshots or even an accident caused by broken glass or twisted metal after a natural disaster are not farfetched at all and should be considered. Some theatrical blood, suitably applied could up the realism of the simulation by a notch or two. Emergency first aid may not give someone the time to go put on latex gloves and they may have to get the blood of a family member on them. Would they be squeamish about this?  Now is a good time to work through that. Other damages can be simulated as well. Step on an old nail and it goes right into the bottom of your foot? Cut into a finger while using a knife or hatchet? The addition of the fake blood just adds one more level of realism to the training procedures.  Beware though! Some brands of this kind of fake blood mixture warn that they can permanently stain clothing and fabric so keep that in mind when you decide what clothing you want to practice in or you may have an unexplainable red stain on your new set of Multicams  (or whatever type of clothing you practice in). It’s a good idea to do this outside to avoid any kind of stain on the carpet inside of your home that cannot easily be removed.

Secondly, I believe that theatrical blood could be used tactically. I am well aware that as preppers we might face all kinds of opposition from those who lack the foresight to set aside money and time to stock up on needed items and prepare for the worst beforehand. Basically, we want to get out to a spot, set-up a base or a retreat and just be left alone by everybody else. The truth is, the hills will eventually be swarming with all the unprepared who have some kind of notion that to survive they must flee the city and miraculously find everything they need out in the woods. These folks may have only one tactic available to them and that would be to try to take what I have worked so hard for away from me and my family. They may come at me with guns (perhaps the only plan that they have for survival) or they may have numbers on their side. They may have the advantage of better or more firepower than I can muster or a much bigger defense force than what I have available, so any advantage I have could be a lifesaver. I can imagine scenarios where I could use the theatrical blood to appear severely wounded, diseased or even dead. Situations similar to ones I have seen in Enemy at the Gates and The Road depict a desperate scenario where these ways may be the only way to be spared being shot at or harmed by marauders. If temporarily being taken prisoner or being put under guard by someone as the rest of the horde searches through your meager supplies (the rest are cached, right?), how much threat would you pose to them if you already had a horrible gut injury or a bleeding head wound? Would they pay you as much attention as they would if you were perfectly fine and uninjured? They may not even worry about you running off or suddenly rising up against your guard and overpowering him to make a getaway. Coughing up “blood” could convince a group that you are ravaged by some kind of biological malady that they don’t want any part of. A false “blood” trail could lead a tracking team expecting wounded or dying prey directly into a well-planned ambush.

These are the tactics of deception that can be employed by the disadvantaged defender. Some might take offense at these ideas and say that these kind of tactics are not very warrior-like but I would reply that when the chips are down, it’s life or death and fate has left you little choice between living another day or getting yourself killed by some half-wit who wants your can of Spam, a little deception could easily save your life, your family’s and maybe even your supplies too. – Art X.

JWR Replies: Theatrical blood is indeed useful for training moulage, but I would be reluctant to try most of your mentioned “tactical” uses, other than as a last resort. As much as possible, I advise that you keep your encounters with strangers at far shouting distance, rather than “improv theater” distance. There is always the risk that someone who is otherwise moral and upright might choose to “put them out of their misery” with a shot to the chest or head. But your mileage may vary.

Also, keep in mind that most people know that real blood dries to a brown color (because the iron in blood oxidizes), while fake blood dries to a fairly bright red.