Survival Planning Using the Military Decision Making Process, by A.J.

There are literally thousands of resources out there for the prepper and would-be survivalist giving advice on the best Bug-Out Bag (BOB), Bug-Out Vehicle (BOV), or necessities to pack into your Bug-out Bag (BOG) or the well stocked first aid kit.  All of this advice is great, however, one thing most of these references have in common is that they all tell the individual prepper he or she needs to assess his or her needs and current situation in order to determine their individual needs.  One thing I have noticed is the dearth of advice on HOW to plan for survival.  I propose using a tried and true tool that can easily be learned and is actually quite intuitive.
The US Military (as well as NATO partners and others) use what is known at the Military Decision Making Process, or MDMP, to plan every level of mission from a squad attack to the invasion of a foreign country.  The tool incorporates gathering all available information, developing Courses of Action (COAs), analyzing them, comparing the results, and deciding on a plan.  The level detail of the planning is dependent only on the amount of information available and the time one has to plan.  As a 25 year military veteran, I have discovered that I subconsciously use MDMP in virtually every decision I make, often without even realizing it, and you probably do as well.
MDMP is a seven step process consisting of:  Receipt of Mission, Mission Analysis, COA Development, COA Analysis, COA Comparison, COA Approval, and Orders Production.  After the plan is developed and briefed, rehearsals are conducted and then are always followed by an After Action Review or AAR.  Each of these steps is comprised of substeps.  I will take you through each of the steps and some of the more relevant substeps and give examples of how they apply to prepping.

  •  Receipt of Mission:  In the military, orders are passed from higher to lower and a subordinate staff will usually start planning off of their higher headquarters guidance and specified tasks.  Oftentimes, however, a commander owning battlespace will develop a plan on his own, based on broad overarching guidance from their higher.  This step, while simple, is critical.  The substeps include conducting an Initial Assessment, Updating Staff Estimates, and Preparing for Mission Analysis.  The outputs are generally Guidance from the Commander and a first Warning Order to subordinate units.

For the Prepper:  Obviously, you do not have a higher headquarters issuing you specified tasks, but you are a battlespace owner (your land, your house, your apartment) and you have been given guidance from such places as FEMA and other Federal Agencies, sites like Survivalblog.com, survival books and numerous other resources.  You have recognized the threat to yourselves and your families and are determined to develop a plan.  Step 1 for the Prepper includes gathering, and understanding, all of these guides, determining your basic requirement (shelter for you and your family of ‘X’, local threats (proximity to nuclear power plants or other high value/high risk targets, etc), pets, and so on.  Make a list.  Preparing for mission analysis is nothing more than gathering all your references together as well as planning tools you might need (note paper, dry erase boards, maps, manuals, lists, etc).

  •  Mission Analysis:  This step, in my humble opinion, is by far the most important step requiring the most detailed analysis and time.  Inputs to this step include the mission from higher, original estimates from the staff (of in the case of the individual prepper, yourself), and all facts and assumptions.  The substeps of Mission Analysis consist of Analysis of the Higher HQ Mission/Intent (See Step 1), Identify Specified and Implied Tasks, Review Task Organization and Assets, Determine Restrictions or Constraints, Assess Risk, and Identify Critical Facts and Assumptions.  Outputs from this step include:  Initial Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB), Restated Mission (5Ws), Commander’s Intent/Guidance, Warning Order 2, Staff Products, Battlefield Framework, and conduct Preliminary Movement.

For the Prepper:  After your have gathered all your products mentioned in step 1, make a list of all the things you NEED to do (specified tasks), and think you SHOULD do (implied tasks).  For example, you determine that you NEED to defend your family against marauders.  Implied tasks include acquiring weapons and ammunition and practice your marksmanship.  Write all these down on separate lists.  Your review of your task organization is straight forward; e.g.  I have a family of five (wife and three sons), and a dog.  Assets gets more detailed: e.g. an SUV that seats 7, is diesel powered and four wheel drive, and has a range of about 200 miles when fully loaded and full tank; a semi-automatic rifle, a deer rifle, a 12 gauge shotgun, a 9mm pistol, and a .38; a house on a ¼ acre lot in a sub-development with basement and a hunting cabin on a 200 acre lot in the mountains 45 miles from home.  Make this list detailed including all equipment and assets you have.  You will quickly realize where you are short once you have it all listed on paper.  Next are your restrictions and constraints.  Restrictions are imposed upon you such as laws and regulations, constraints are things beyond your control (such as my sons are too young to drive).  Next, assess risks to you and yours.  For example, there is a nuclear reactor 10 miles straight line distance from our house.  Finally, identify critical facts and assumptions.  These are hugely important and need more that a little brain power.  Examples of facts may be that my Bug Out Location is 45 miles away that can easily be reached by my SUV in any weather, however our sedan would not make the drive in deep snow.  The primary (and quickest) route takes us through a major metropolitan area of over 2 million people, the alternate route makes the drive more than an hour longer and through very rural areas.  Assumptions are critical to identify, but keep in mind that they must be valid and necessary based upon your analysis of the situation.  It might be fun to assume the zombie apocalypse, but probably not a valid or necessary assumption.  A more valid assumption may be that I will have enough warning to load our vehicles and reach our BOL before the SHTF, or that I won’t.  If I assume that I won’t, then that whole plan is not valid.

  •  Course of Action Development:  Develop at least two Courses of Action (COAs), three is better, but more than three is probably too many.  In this step the staff Analyzes Relative Combat Power (friendly  assets vs. the enemy’s  assets), Generate Options,  Array Initial Forces (where friendly forces are arrayed as well as the best information on the enemy are arrayed), Develop the Scheme of Maneuver, Assign Headquarters, and prepare COA statements and sketches.  The COA sketch is a one page (usually PowerPoint) diagram that shows a map of the plan with all the critical tasks listed along one side.   COAs need to pass the suitability, feasibility, acceptability, distinguishability, and completeness tests.  This means that the plans each need to be realistic given the assets, restraints, constraints, and assumptions listed in the previous step.  The two to three COAs need to be distinct from each other, not just minor variations of the same plan.  And they need to be complete.  Of course, they have to also be acceptable…. nuke ‘em all, is not an option.

For the Prepper:  Your COA development is very similar with just some minor tweaks from the military model.  Your relative combat power is listed in your assets (weapons, vehicles. etc) and your adversaries come from your assumptions (in a possible scenario one could anticipate groups of up to a half dozen armed marauders, well armed but poorly trained). Now is when you generate your options:  do I Bug In or Bug Out, for example?  You array your initial forces on a map:  we are here, they are there.  Developing your scheme of maneuver entails adding detail to your COAs.  If Bugging In, then you are in essence planning a defense.  What is your perimeter?  Where are your defenses, chokepoints, and vulnerabilities?  Where is your strongpoint?  If Bugging Out, what are your routes?  Where are you most vulnerable?  How are you moving (together or linking up at a rally point, for example)?  If your COA involves others, you would break individual or group tasks down at this point.  Who brings what to the party?  Who is responsible for food, fuel, ammo, shelter, and so on?  Finally, as much of this information as possible is arrayed on your sketches of your COAs so that the picture speaks for itself.

  •  Course of Action Analysis.  This step is known as wargaming.  The staff have gathered all the information available, determined assets available and the assets the enemy has, identified facts and assumptions, and developed a couple of plans.  Now the plan is put to the test in a table top exercise.  There are rules to wargaming.  At all times, remain unbiased towards a COA.  If someone want a COA to “win” it will.  Approach wargaming as an honest assessment of the plans to determine their strengths and weakness.  Next, list the advantages and disadvantages of each.  This is done as the wargaming progresses and is tracked on a board.  Continually assess the COA feasibility, acceptability, and suitability.  If, while wargaming, it is determined a COA just won’t work, then we stop wargaming it.  No sense of wasting time on a plan that is impossible to accomplish.  Next, avoid drawing premature conclusions and gathering facts to support such conclusions.  This is a scientific process and picking and choosing information to support one COA over the other is not an option.  Finally, compare the COAs in the next step, not during wargaming.  When wargaming, focus on one COA at a time, from start to finish, without discussing how this COA has an advantage over the other.  Wargaming takes preparation.  All the tools used for wargaming are gathered in advance (maps, toy vehicles, toy Soldiers, methods to record actions and reactions, etc).  List all the friendly forces.  List all your assumptions so you can refer back to them for validity and necessity.  List known critical events and decision point.  Determine evaluation criteria, which means on what basis are we going to evaluate the COAs (survivability, cost, risk, etc)?  Select the wargaming method, which can vary on the COA.  Typically, a defense is wargamed in a box, whereas a movement is often done using the Avenue-in-depth technique.  Next,  the method to record and display results is selected, which is typically a dry erase board or large sheet of paper with each of the critical events listed across the top and friendly and enemy forces listed down the sides.  Finally war game the COA from start to finish.  Go friendly action, enemy reaction, friendly counteraction for each event (or enemy action, friendly action, enemy counter action if the enemy strikes first).  One member is dedicated to the enemy side, who fights to win for the enemy (could even represent the natural disaster).  And remember to record everything.

For the prepper:  This is pretty straightforward.  Take your Bug In COA and play it out from the time you determine the need to Bug In until you think it is safe to come out.  What are the threats; be they natural, manmade, or mutant, and how can they defeat you?  Discuss how you will defeat each threat based on your assets and forces that you have on hand.  When you determine a shortfall, write it down.  Do not say you will do something you have no capability of, such as “well, I will have landmines around the perimeter.”  Really?  Where are you going to get landmines?  When are you going to put them in, camouflage them, control their detonation, and recover them?  Be realistic.  After you have wargamed that COA, wargame the other from start to finish.  If your second COA is to Bug Out, play through getting from somewhere else (such as your place of work) to your house in order to load vehicles.  How long will out load take and who does what?  War game both your primary and alternate routes.  And don’t forget to war game what happens when you get to your Bug Out Location.  You are essentially Bugging In there, so war game that as well.  That might have a completely different set of threats and conditions.  When you are done wargaming, you should have a list of the strengths and weaknesses of both of your plans.  You have identified where there are risks.  Now the assumptions that you made earlier are either emphasized or discarded.  Additionally, you may have developed branches and sequels to your plans that you hadn’t thought of before (If X happens, I will do A, if Y happens, I will do B).  All of these should be written down as well.

Step 5:  Course of Action Comparison.  Now is the time that the various COAs are compared to determine which is the best and therefore which plan to go with.  The actual comparison of the COAs is critical.  We use any technique that facilitates reaching the best decision.  Start by evaluating each COA from different perspectives, using the evaluation criteria that was already established.  Now, compare the COAs to determine the one with the highest likelihood of success against the most likely enemy threat and the most dangerous enemy threat.  This is done through a simple matrix with COAs listed across the top and the evaluation criteria listed down the side.  The criteria can be weighted in order to give more strength to those criteria which is most important.  Then each COA is scored, usually 1, 2, or 3.  If certain criterion is given a weight of 3, then the results would be 3, 6 and 9 respectively, with lowest score being best.  After each COA is graded and weighted, they are totaled and the one with the lowest score wins.  You now have your COA.
For the prepper:  The process is the same.  The only real difference would be the criteria you evaluate the COAs against.  For example, the military might use such things as Fires, Intelligence, Air Defense, and Combat Service

Support.  The prepper would use criteria such as Survivability, Risk, Simplicity, Cost, etc.
Step 6:  Course of Action Approval.  Within the military, this is a formalized brief to the commander by the staff with detailing the results of the wargaming process and their recommended COA.  At the end of the briefing, the command decides on a COA and then issues final planning guidance.  Since you are the commander, it is ultimately your decision; therefore there is not much to cover in this step.

Step 7:  Orders Production.  Now that the COA has been approved, the staff gets to work finalizing the plan that will result in an order to subordinate units.  All the information gathered during wargaming is gathered, including branches and sequels to the plan, and incorporated into the plan as  either tasks to subordinate units  or coordinating instructions that apply to multiple units.  The plan also identifies risks and implements control measures to reduce those risks.  The commander reviews the final plan which is then issued via a variety of means.

For the prepper:  Now that you have your plan, and have seen where you are vulnerable, you can write everything down into one cohesive document.  This can include maps and directions, a list of division of responsibilities within the family or your group, load plans for vehicles and packing lists.  This is a good time to also list those items you identified you need to support your plan, but don’t currently have on hand.  This is your new shopping list.  This way you are purchasing what you will NEED to support your plan, not what you THINK you need and can help reduce waste.

Finally, after the plan is issued to everyone, and everyone understands the plan, comes the time to rehearse, rehearse, and rehearse again.  Time is the main limiting factor here. If you have a solid plan for TEOTWAWKI you can rehearse it with everyone involved in your plan at any time.  Try to do it under a variety of conditions such as night time, high traffic times, middle of winter, in the rain, etc.  After each rehearsal, conduct an After Actions Review to discuss what the plan was, what went right and what went wrong.  Only then can you identify faults in your plan that you didn’t realize while planning  in the comfort of your living room and further develop other contingencies to counter those problems.

The Military Decision Making Process was designed to handle any kind of operation, take all factors into consideration, and come up with the best plan in order to accomplish the mission.  Prepping for when TSHTF is no different and is the method I use to ensure the survival of my family.

Reference:
FM 5-0, Army Planning and Orders Production, 20 January, 2005, Defense Printing Office

Two Letters Re: Don’t Stockpile, Get Global — Conversations with a Rhodesian Expat and Being Financially Global

Jim,
It doesn’t have to be either or. It is foolish to not have resources stored. It also makes sense to be prepared to make a retreat to another country where you have friends and resources. My family’s plans and preparations include personal contacts and pre-positioned resources in two countries. I can show up unannounced in two other countries, and be assured of a warm welcome and assistance in integrating into the country. I have lesser contacts in a number of other countries. In the country where we live we have stockpiled over a years worth of food, and have the land, seeds, tools and expertise to feed our family indefinitely. We are not a wealthy family in terms of net worth as it is usually measured. I’m only worth about $100,000 USD. But I have no debts, own productive land, hold other land via long term lease agreement, have invested in several small businesses. But the crown jewel of my resources is the international network of contacts held together by friendship, common faith, family ties and economic interests. Louis L’Amour fans might think about Barnabas Sackett’s network of contacts and the blessing it was to his sons. – Andrew B. (Somewhere in the southern end of the Redoubt.)

Gents,
While I do understand what Peter was getting at, I think there were some serious elements missing in his theory.

For starters, if the US collapses, odds are excellent that most other nations will have either followed suit or soon will. Even China, touted as the world’s most powerful economy, is completely reliant on exports – exports to countries like the US, which will have collapsed, no? The global economy is too interconnected to assume that some regions would fall without other regions following suit. Even as far back as the 1920’s-1930’s, the world economy at large suffered in chain reaction, and that was back when many nations were still largely isolationist in nature! This leaves you with a question of where to go… even tiny nations that appear to be isolated are heavily reliant on imports to maintain any real standard of living (and in some cases, any living at all). Case in point would be the Bahamas… nice and isolated, but without a massive desalinization/groundwater extraction infrastructure (and imported fuel to feed the pumps), most folks there would be SOL for drinking water. Same story with most tiny island nations – without imports (that would dry up when SHTF), survival would be sketchy at best for the current populations residing on them.

Long story short, you’d still have to survive collapse, but now you have the added bonus of surviving it in a foreign land, and with no supplies.

Secondly, under such a scenario, the amount of time you would have to bug out to your chosen remote nation of choice and get set up there would be vanishingly small. In order to fly out under such circumstances, you would have to be already there, perfectly lucky, perfectly psychic, or own a transcontinental-range private jet. Why? Because I sincerely doubt that buying a plane ticket is going to be possible while everything is turning into chaos. You could do it by ship, but finding one and getting passage on it is going to be harder still.

Third, the gringo has a bit of an identity problem… most non-English-speaking nations, while nominally friendly to the typical US tourist (who brings money), would get pretty hostile on an interpersonal level once word got out that the US was no longer functioning. Nationalists of all stripes would rise up and make you out to be the scapegoat for all his nation’s ills. As most nations have strict weapons laws for foreigners (that would be you), you get to face the mobs unarmed. What friends you do have aren’t going to risk their wife/kids/parents to save your butt, and shame on you for thinking they will. I strongly suspect that even nations such as Mexico would suddenly become a dangerous place to be an American in if/when America ceased to be.

Next up? Medical issues. In most places today, drinking the local water is a guaranteed 3-day trip on the Toilet-Ride Of Pain. Post-collapse, it would be a guaranteed death sentence if you weren’t already used to drinking it. Oh, and now you get to contend with strange local diseases that you didn’t have time to get vaccinated against before you hurriedly left home. While not everyone will experience issues with it, I guarantee that unless you’ve gotten used to it and are already acclimated? It’s going to hurt, and coupled with the stress of bugging out of an entire country as it’s collapsing? It’ll likely kill you if you catch anything at all.

And then there is climate. Bugging out to Canada? Hope you can deal with the extreme winters. Australia? Cool, but most of it is hostile desert and scrub… the good parts are already occupied fully by the current population. New Zealand? Given their current immigration requirements and small size, I doubt they’d let you in.

Finally, there’s the money thing. A collapse of the world’s biggest economies would mean that all economies would suffer greatly. So, even if you did manage to convert those greenbacks to the local swag before the crash? The local money may well become worthless too – just as you’re trying to use it as a means to buy all the stuff you didn’t stockpile on.

Not even going to mention the language differences, lack of local knowledge on some rather vital subjects (edible plants, animals, etc), lack of local political knowledge (yes, it’s kind of important to have that), etc.

All that said, I get the theory, and if you planned carefully, and bugged-out well in advance, you would have a shot at riding out the collapse in relative ease. You would have to pick a country that isn’t going to go all hostile on you as an American, a country with enough local resources to largely support its current population minus civilization, and one that has some hope of functioning in some fashion in spite of the rest of the world going to hell.

It is entirely possible to find a safe haven, but in my opinion? It would require a ton of research, and quite frankly, you’d better already be living there. – T.J.M.

Economics and Investing:

C.A. in Oregon mentioned a recent news story that might be a preview for American farmers that have orchards near cities or suburbs: Desperation thefts of crops from farms in Spain.

Clive Maund: Heads A Deflationary Implosion – Tails A Hyperinflationary Depression…

Upside Down America: The lingering problems of negative equity – Over 10 million Americans are underwater with 1 million having loan-to-value ratios of 150 percent or higher

Are Bitcoins Becoming Europe’s New Safe Haven Currency?

Items from The Economatrix:

Weak Factories, Sentiment Show Shaky US Recovery

There’s A Positive Sign For Housing

V’s Response to Greek Election Facade-Just Watch and See–The Euro is C’est Fini

Forget The Election Results–Greece Is Doomed And So Is The Rest Of Europe

Odds ‘n Sods:

Composting 101

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SurvivalBlog reader Ed. M. recommended the training seminars by author Lt. Col. Dave Grossman, titled “Bullet Proof Mind for the Armed Citizen.” Ed M. notes: “I’m a 35-year veteran Park Ranger and this was without a doubt one of the top 10 training sessions I’ve ever attended. Colonel Grossman has given this training to our and international military and law enforcement personnel for years, this was the second time the training had been provided for civilian patriots. I strongly recommend that SurvivalBlog readers attend his great training if he comes to your area.”

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The editor of The Prepper Website mentioned this site: Biblical Self Defense.

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Reader Ken L. said that he plans to try an interesting potato bin growing method.

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Leigh spotted this: Things to Consider in a Natural Gas Pickup Truck

Note from JWR:

Today we present another two entries for Round 41 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. B.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and E.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 41 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Treasure Hunting, Prepper-Style, by PrepperGal in Colorado

Nearly two-thirds of all the furnishings and prep items in my home were used when I got them.  As the economy has continued to crumble, any stigma attached to shopping on the cheap has given way to pride at getting a good deal.  Forget designer shoes or imported coffee – I get absolutely giddy when I come home with a great “find”!

But can you rely on bargain shopping to get all the things you need to help your family be prepared for whatever comes your way?  Is there a way to really make “treasure hunting” both fun and successful?
Yes!  All it takes is some planning together with a positive attitude and a pre-determined budget.  Even if you aren’t pinching pennies, why waste your money when you can find great items at bargain prices and redirect those extra dollars to food or debt reduction?  And if you are on a budget (and most of us are), this organized approach lets you decide what’s important and where you should look for the best buys.
Do your homework

  • Get a small notebook that fits in your pocket, purse or glove compartment.  Never leave home without it!
  • Sit down with your family.  Identify your needs and prioritize them. For each item, determine:
    • Exactly what the item is.  If your husband needs a Left Handed Monkey Whatzitgrubber and you don’t have a clue what that is, have him show you a picture of one and explain what it’s for.  Guys, the same goes for you if you don’t know the difference between a tea strainer and a colander.
    • The condition you’ll accept.  Is there someone you know who could refurbish or repair–a broken or not-working item?
    • $$ you’re willing to spend.  Be sure to set aside funds that can be readily accessed if you find a great deal on one of your high priority items.
    • Specifics such as make, model, caliber, size, etc.  Remember, you can’t take it back if it doesn’t fit!
  • Put these items in your notebook on a Priority List.  These are items you’ll actively search for on a regular basis.
  • Make  lists of less critical items that you’ll keep your eyes open for whenever you find them.  Divide the lists into heading such as Equipment, Survival items, Clothing, Consumables, etc.  I keep a summary of categories at the front –my “list of lists”.
  • Next, if you have a group of like-minded friends that are planning and training together, have a serious discussion and identify the needs of the group.   You may want to start with a checklist such as the ones found online or in your favorite SHTF book, customized for your group, location and budget.  Determine what items and supplies you don’t have that are critical to your group, then prioritize and budget for them.  Agree who will house the item, the condition you’ll accept, and who will contribute how much.
  • Share your own priority list with your group and keep a list of their priorities in your notebook.  The more people looking, the better!
  • Be sure to ask and note such requirements as size, caliber, dimensions, colors, etc next to each item on everyone’s lists.

What can I expect to find?
Anything and everything!  You’ll shake your head at some of the objects being sold for pennies on the dollar or thrown away as trash.  Here’s a sample of some of my recent finds:

  • 6’ black wire bakers rack – $10
  • All-American pressure cooker, new (still in the box) – $15
  • 2 Coleman camping cots – $2 each
  • 15 PermaGard chem suits new in packages – $1 each
  • Excalibur dehydrator – $10
  • Craftsman toolbox with more than 120 Craftsman, Stanley and other tools – $20
  • 5 gal bucket chemical toilet (new) – $2
  • 3 oil lamps with extra globes – $3 each
  • Metal ammo cans – $4
  • Grocery sack full of new first aid supplies (at the end of an estate sale) – FREE
  • Garden tools (2 rakes, 2 shovels, a hoe) – $3 each
  • 10 person, 3 room Coleman tent in very good condition, along with two sleeping bags and a Coleman lantern – $75

Where to look
Now that you know what you’re looking for, the question is where to find it.  Your options will vary depending on where you’re at and how much time you can devote to “the hunt”. Be sure to check:

  • CraigsList
    • Check under Yard Sales, Farm & Garden, etc, and use key words to search the general “For Sale” category for your priority items at least once a week.  Remember, it’s a first come/first serve situation.
    • Beware of scammers.  Try to take someone with you when you go to purchase an item.
  • Other web sites such as www.GovLiquidation.com, www.GovDeals.com, www.GSAAuctions.gov  or www.drms.dla.mil
    • Some of these require that you buy a case full of something.  This is where coordinating with a group of friends is useful.  You may not need 20 gas masks, but your group may need that many for all their family members.
    • All states and many municipalities also have surplus sales or auctions.  The same is true for hospitals, colleges, school districts and other large organizations.  Be sure to check their web sites for upcoming sales.
  • Yard Sales (especially estate sales)
    • Yard sales are mainly held between April and September, although they can be year round in warm weather areas.  Watch online and along the streets for signs that the “season” has begun.
    • Look for sales in locations best suited to your items.  Identify sales in rural vs urban areas, look for nice homes in neighborhoods that have yards or gardens.  Make a map/list of sales in geographic and priority order.
    • Be there first, with plenty of cash in hand.  Always be friendly – greet the seller with a smile!  They’re much more likely to give you a good deal if you’re not gruff and rude.
    • Be considerate.  If the ad says “No early birds”, respect the hours posted.  Don’t block the street or driveway.  Keep your children under control or leave them at home.
    • Negotiate!  This can be the best part of the whole hunt.  Prices are rarely firm, but don’t insult them, either.  If they’re asking $20 for the dehydrator, it’s fine to offer $10, but don’t offer $2.  Don’t look too eager – point out the worn spot, the torn cover, or the missing end piece.  But most importantly, know when to walk away if it’s not a good deal of if it’s not a need.  Keep the larger purpose in mind.
    • Estates sales are the best source for many items such as older tools and gear.  Things that a family wouldn’t get rid of just because of a move are up for grabs when grandpa moves into the nursing home.
    • Keep your eyes open when you’re going from sale to sale – there’s usually more Yard Sale signs posted along the way.
  • Thrift Stores
    • Get to know your local thrift stores – what their strengths are, any special sales days, and any membership cards (yes, just like the groceries!).  Get on their mailing list if they have one and find out about any early bird specials.
    • Once you’re a “regular”, chat with the manager or the clerks and let them know about any specific items you’re watching for.  They’re often very willing to give you a call if something comes into the store that’s on your list.
  • Auctions
    • I recommend taking someone with you that has experience with auctions or you’ll find yourself buying something when you just tried to scratch your nose!  All auctions are different, but most are fast paced, fast talking and lots of fun.
    • Most auctions have a time prior to the start of the sale for inspection of the items.  Take advantage of this time to look closely at an item’s condition.  Ask questions.  Listen to those around you and learn, learn, learn!
  • Local or community newspapers
    • Most local papers have a yard sale or items for sale/barter section.
    • Watch for local auction notices.
    • Don’t be afraid to approach the sellers prior to the official sale date to see if they’d like to sell specific items.  In small communities, people are often more flexible with neighbors than with strangers.
  • For Sale sections on town, church or company web sites, bulletin boards or newsletters
    • Watch for church rummage sales, fund raising sales and items being sold off by your town or community center.
  • Word of mouth (Tell your friends what you’re looking for!)
    • Some of my best leads on items and services have come from friends and neighbors when I’ve mentioned what I’m looking for.
    • Shop local merchants whenever possible.  Buying from farmers or local tradesmen both supports the local economy and cuts out the middle-man profit.  Plus, they’re more likely to take pride in selling a quality product or service.    And when you purchase from them, you can ask for referrals on other items.

And don’t forget that there are some places that even advertise free things or items for barter!  Be sure to check FreeCycle, the “Free” section on CraigsList, and other local sources.  Also, if you show up near the end of a yard sale, people will often be willing to give items away to keep from having to haul them away or put them back in their garages.
Be sure you inspect all items carefully.  Be sure they work (or that their condition is acceptable).  Remember – all sales at yard sales, thrift stores, auctions and the like are final.  No returns accepted!
If you find an item that’s on a friend’s or your group’s priority list, take a photo and quickly send it to whoever else is part of the decision making process.  Call them immediately while standing next to the item (even better, lean on it!)
Tools of the trade
So now you have the what and the where.  But before you jump in the car and head out on your adventures, be sure you have everything you need.

  • Don’t forget to bring your notebook along with a pen or pencil to take notes.
  • Carry your purse or wallet in a way that your hands are free without laying anything down.  Keep most of your cash in the car, carrying only part of it on you at any one time.
  • The bigger the better – a pickup truck is a great way to carry just about anything home.  However, my small SUV works just fine for all but the big stuff.  In that case, have a pick-up driving friend on speed-dial!
  • In your car, have the following:
    • A measuring tape
    • Bungee cords
    • A bucket, bag, newspapers or other items to restrain and protect small or breakable objects

Ready, Set, Save!
So now you have a plan.  You know what you’re looking for, where to find it and how to get it home.  All that’s left is to put on your comfortable shoes, strap on your fanny pack, grab your notebook and your list of destinations, and head out!  Make it a family affair or take a friend and have lunch afterwards.  Whether with a group or by yourself, if you’re like me (I consider shopping both a sport and entertainment) you’ll look forward to the adventure.  Just tell your family that you’re “working hard” to help the family prep.  Enjoy!

Cause or Consequence: Yet Another Planning Tool, by E.B.

I recently saw a prepper forum which posted the question “What is your biggest fear?” Answers listed varied from EMP to riots to complete financial collapse to nuclear strikes in your backyard. I thought a long time about this fear-based. In my mind, I prepare so I do not fear; or really, so that I fear less.

So what are we really afraid of? Are we afraid of the causes of a crisis, or the consequences? Causes and crises are scary, and there are many: wars, recession, wildfires, tornados, hurricanes, blizzards, ad infinitum. Take your pick. But the consequences are almost universally the same; namely a reduction in our standard of living and/or imminent danger to our lives and property. To what degree that standard of living may be reduced and our lives endangered is the only real unknown a prepper needs to fear. If you look at you needs of life (check out Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs) and ask yourself how you will provide for those needs come what may, you can expose weak spots in your preparations and, perhaps more importantly, organize and prioritize your ongoing and future preparations.

I believe you should put all of your prepping categories through the gauntlet on consequence-based thinking. Needs such as food, shelter, water, security, entertainment, income, investment should all be thought-out thoroughly and analytically. Prepping should not be an emotional endeavour. Break down all your needs, all the subcategories, even all your individual preps or plans into their most basic components, and run them all through the mill of comprehensive and intentionally thought-out ‘what ifs’, and see how they stand up. Make sure you write them down. Keep your records organized. I strongly encourage all of you who are new to the preparedness world to organize your needs in a similar way, either as below or in some other manner, and then write it down. Your written work serves not only as a future guide of prepping priorities, but can serve as a plan to deal with the full consequences of any foreseen crisis. Not only will these records help your current preps, but if and when things go sideways it will be your blueprint for fulfilling those needs when the stress makes your head spin. Even people who have been preparing for years may find it useful to revisit the basics.

Some Potential Major Consequences of Crises

1. Reduced Purchasing Power
I personally think we are experiencing this consequence of crisis right now, and I am sure most of you would agree. Every grocery bill seems to cost more and buy less. But this is more than just accounting for inflation. It includes reductions in incomes, due to lost jobs, layoffs, loss of benefits and other causes. It could simply be becoming injured on or off the job, and having to take sick leave, or losing money in your retirement mutual fund of choice (I earnestly hope you do not have mutual funds. These days you might do better at the roulette table at the local casino. At least their odds are 49-51 if you bet on red or black!) Combat your reduced purchasing power, and prepare for further erosion in purchasing power by:
• Working More! Dave Ramsey correctly states that you biggest money maker is your job. If you can get a different one, do it. I used to refuse to apply for jobs that I thought were “beneath me”, until I met a recent immigrant who taught me that the important job – the one I can be proud of – is any job that provides for my family. If you can’t find another job, keep trying and slug on. It’s increasingly common to be in that situation and there is no shame in it, as long as you keep trying. There is only shame in giving up.
• Budget. Plan a budget. It’s hard, and I can’t count how many budgets I have made and failed to adhere to, but each time I try it makes me a little more focused on my true priorities, which don’t include a new flat screen anymore.
• Buy in bulk, on sale, and coupon. Other articles have been written about this. Search them out in the SurvivalBlog archives. If you know you will need one small tube of toothpaste per month, don’t be afraid to buy 12 large ones when they next go on sale. People will look at you funny right now, but they’ll catch on soon. Stock up on non-perishables that you use daily and when the price is right. These are better than money in the bank. You cannot brush your teeth with money. “Wealth” as a concept means the things you need, or the ability to get the things you need. When money buys less, toothpaste (or any other thing you need, and have) is “wealth”.
• Share. There is no time like the present to start making connections with people around you. If someone needs help now, help them! You might need help later. And it’s not just money and stuff I am talking about; share your time, your labour and your expertise. Think of the old barn raisings in our grandparent’s days. Many together can do what one alone cannot. Start now, and get to know the people around you.
This first category is basically a consequence of hard economic times. Whether it comes about from a lost job, inflation, low supply or high demand, the results are similar: you cannot afford as much as you used to be able to. Preppers often prepare for these consequences unintentionally. If you are worried about mass inflation, then you probably have your bases covered for the regular kind. We have not yet seen mass inflation in our lifetimes (at least in North America), yet many of us have had our purchasing power suddenly and drastically reduced.

2. Scarcity
Scarcity means the things you need to live are no longer available. How will you meet your needs when there is no food on the grocery store shelves, no power, no gas at the gas station, no medications at the pharmacy, no plumbing, no mass transit, etc, etc, etc. Peak oil, just-in-time delivery, shortages – there are many crises that could result in scarcity. Offset the hardships of scarcity with the following:
• A Larder. Did you notice that newer houses aren’t built with pantries anymore? I remember the cold room at my grandma’s house – in the basement stocked to the roof with mason jars, with a framed dirt bin along one wall for the potatoes and carrots. Why did people do this? To live. In the great depression, for many people, if they couldn’t make or grow something themselves, they didn’t have it. Think like your grandparents. They lived through hard times. For many of them, going to the grocery store once a month was a convenience. If your grandparents had it easy, think like my grandparents and fill you larder. If you buy the things you need in bulk, to hedge against your loss in purchasing power, you likely have a start on some sort of storage or larder.
• Do It Yourself. Learn to do things for yourself, and reduce your dependence on buying stuff. “We have no knowledge, so we have stuff, but stuff without knowledge is never enough.” (Greg Brown). Learn to start a fire, build an improved woodstove (check out practicalaction.org), cook your own meals, bake bread, build an outhouse, poop in a hole in the woods, knit socks, darn socks, anything. And then try to meet other people who think the same way. Knitting clubs, pottery lessons, artisan guilds, reloaders; there are many activities people do for pleasure that used to be essential to life, and may be again.
• Barter. Again, share. A community is stronger than an individual and has access to greater resources. Cut your neighbour’s lawn with your old-timey push mower in exchange for using her pressure canner. Ask around of you need something; seek and you will find it.

3. Hunker Down
“Bug In” is the term most commonly used for this consequence, preferably at your retreat or retreat-in-place. This is what happens when there is a pandemic, martial law, curfews, tornadoes, blizzards, etc. Bugging in may require:
• The need for short term self sufficiency in your home, even with disruptions of utilities (Unavailability) such as power and plumbing. Includes plans for meeting the basic needs or human life (food, water, warmth, toilets). You should have this covered if you have a larder, with the addition of some sort of hygiene/pooping plan.
• Entertainment. Don’t overlook this one! Your sanity depends on it.
• The need for defence of your home (I.e. strong doors, storms shutters, and other means…)
• Communication. A radio or security cameras would be useful in knowing when that tornado warning ends, or the bad guys are gone. How are you going to know when it is safe to come out of the basement?

4. Evacuation!
Everyone should consider the need to beat feet and get out of dodge. It’s not just meant for a coming world collapse or when bad guys knocking down your front door – even the most prepared family retreat needs to have an evacuation plan for natural disasters such as wildfires or floods. If you are planning on ‘bugging in’ for every conceivable crisis, you are committing to going down with your ship. A noble principle, I suppose, but I would rather build another ship. How will you meet your basic needs of life in an evacuation? Some ideas:
• Documentation. Everything you need to access your resources, like bank account records, will, identification, medical prescriptions, etc, and important phone numbers for your family and friends who you will likely be visiting very, very soon. Get it in paper and backed up electronically (perhaps on an encrypted USB).
• Mini-Larder. A bug-out bag or get out of dodge kit is really just a portable mini-larder, with the necessities for life in the short term or the ability to provide for them. Pack it up, customize it, put it in the trunk of your car, carry it on your back or whatever. The most minimal bug out bag I would consider is carrying a small metal can, a knife, and a lighter. Don’t leave home without it.
• A Plan. So you left your house: now what? Part of your security planning in an evacuation is the plan to reach safety. Routes, vehicles, extra gas might all be required, but it might just mean moving up the hill to get out of the tsunami evacuation zone like in Hawaii after the Fukushima earthquake. How will you get your kids out of your 2nd storey bedroom when the main floor of your home is on fire?
The potential for evacuation is real, for everyone, everywhere. A house fire would have the same consequence, initially, as any other crisis – you would have to leave fast. I think the potential for evacuation is something everyone should be addressing, and is a good way to introduce people to the ideas surrounding emergency preparedness.

5. End of the World as We Know It
Worst-case scenarios like are hard to predict. Things could always be worse. In essence they are unpredictable. As a TEOTWAWKI event, I imagine ALL of the above consequences happening at once, or for a long, long time. It would be death, chaos and mass destruction. I can’t give you any instructions on this consequence of crises, except to do your best, do right, and make your peace with God. ‘Nuff said.

6. Status Quo
This is the one that no prepper likes to talk about. But it needs to be talked about. There is the possibility, however distant we might think it, that things will remain unchanged for long time. That doesn’t rule out things like job loss, but when we put all our resources into preps at the expense of our financial well-being and happiness, we have left the path of wisdom. Live within your means. Do not max out your credit cards to buy preps for an event that could be years away. They will repossess your stuff, and you will be worse off than when you started. No second mortgages to buy the armoured vehicle you think you need!
• Live within your means.
• Make rational decisions, not emotional or fear-based decisions.
• Balance the future with the present. You never know, that asteroid that causes the end of the world could fall directly on your head. Spending your life worrying about it would have been a silly thing to do, wouldn’t it? Or you could have a heart attack tomorrow. So prepare, make it your new useful insurance policy, but don’t let it consume you and your happiness. Spend time with the people you care about doing the things you love to do.

This list is by no means exhaustive. It’s just a method a taking the fear out of any given disaster scenario and replacing it with a plan. It has helped me, but you mileage may vary. At the very least, I encourage everyone to revisit their preps, to re-evaluate and reassess, and look for areas that nay have been previously glossed over. Think of the aspects of your basic needs and how you provide for them in the event of different consequences that life may send at you. Do it slowly, and write it down. A wise friend of mine told me once, that in our lives, we are either heading out of a crisis, or into one. He meant it on a more personal level, dealing with loss of a family member, but it applies everywhere. If you plan well, if you plan rationally and intentionally, then all your preps should be either useful or enjoyable to your life now. So what if someone makes fun of you for having a year’s supply of toothpaste? You’re going to use it one way or another, and you got it on sale.

Letter Re: Advice on Pre-1965 Silver Coinage

Hello James,
I have started buying “junk” U.S. silver coins as part of my preparedness plan. I have found the valuation formula for bulk bags of the 90% silver coins, but in spite of a lot of research I have still have not been able to find the formula to value an individual coin. Would you please provide the formula to determine the value of an individual 90% silver dime, quarter, and half-dollar?
 
Thank You and God Bless, – Joe from Florida

JWR Replies: Here is some data that you should print out and keep in your reference binder. Most of what you need to do to calculate coin melt values is simply shift decimal places…

90% .50/.25/.10 bags ($1,000 face value) contain approximately 715 ounces of silver.

So at today’s spot price (in mid-June, 2012):

$28.73 spot x 715 ounces = $20,541.95 for a full $1,000 bag (Or just think of it as 20.5 x face value.)

or,

$2,054.19  for $100 face value

or,

$205.42 for $10 face value

or,

$20.54 for $1 face value.  (BTW, silver dollars have a silver content greater than four quarters. Not only is there numismatic value, but there is also slightly more silver content, per dollar.)

or,

$10.26 for a silver half dollar

or,

$5.13 for a silver quarter

or,

$2.05 for a silver dime

You can find detailed coin specifications at Coinflation.com. (These are useful if you’d rather calculate coin values by the gram.)

And speaking of which, here are some handy conversion formulas:

Grams to pennyweights, multiply grams by .643
Pennyweights to grams, multiply pennyweights by 1.555
Grams to troy ounces, multiply grams by 0.32
Troy ounces to grams, multiply troy ounces by 31.103
Pennyweights to troy ounces, divide pennyweights by 20
Troy ounces to pennyweights, multiply troy ounces by 20
Grains to grams, multiply grains by .0648
Grams to grains, multiply grams by 15.432
Pennyweights to grains, multiply pennyweights by 24
Avoirdupois ounces to troy ounces, multiply avoirdupois ounces by .912
Troy ounces to avoirdupois ounces, multiply troy ounces by 1.097
Avoirdupois ounces to grams, multiply avoirdupois ounces by 28.35
Grams to Avoirdupois ounces, multiply grams by .035

P.S.: $1,000 face value bags of 40% silver half dollars (with 1965 to 1970 mint dates) contain approximately 296 ounces of silver.

Three Letters Re: Don’t Stockpile, Get Global — Conversations with a Rhodesian Expat and Being Financially Global

Good Morning James,
I couldn’t disagree more with Peter’s preparedness methodology. By the very definition of “refugee” that is just what he will will be and we would be if the USA goes down. I would rather be here trying to survive and rebuild as opposed to trying to live in some other country trying to get my money from a Chinese bank after a currency and societal collapse. Put your extra cash into silver. Regards, – Jim A.

 

Sir:
I was surprised at Peter’s suggestion that people (or more specifically Americans) would be ‘safer’ living abroad than in the USA. The poster of the article cited the crisis in Zimbabwe’s mob attacks on white farmers / land owners for his support of living abroad in an apartment. The poster mentions opening a bank account in China but then states that is ‘difficult to get one’s money out unless one knows someone in China’ that certainly doesn’t sound a well thought out plan on financial safety. I don’t know anyone in China and even if I knew one person in China what if that contact disappears? He suggested placing funds in several other nations but didn’t mention that many countries now do not want to open a US citizen bank account because of the onerous financial laws based in the USA and imposed upon other nations.

Obtaining ‘dual citizenship’ was suggested but it takes a minimum of four years plus he failed to mention the long arm statutes of the US government to claw back the former US citizen’s assets for several years after achieving an alternative citizenship. Nothing was mentioned that in some other nations, it is not legal to purchase supplies of one’s well being. Some of the other nations require that the American produce evidence of being adequate funds to enter their country and to sustain themselves. I call this as a major ‘mark’ for an American living abroad — whether one becomes a citizen of the new country or not, an American will be seen as wealthy and thus a target for kidnappings. I was reading some place of an American woman who was stuck in her Central American safe zone when the businesses refused to accept her US dollars for payments of goods and services. In
Brazil, one of the nations suggested as an alternative nation for a dual citizenship, that nation has been urging its business owners to force all American dollar holders to take them to a bank to be exchanged into the local currency. Great! What a mess if one’s source of income is based in US dollars and suddenly the host nation refuses transactions/ exchanges of US Dollars?

I would personally hate to be an American living abroad when that nation and its people turns hostile to all foreigners. I would hate to be stuck in some awful high rise apartment surrounded by a sea of humanity that riots in the streets if their currency collapses (think: Argentina). Many of these other nations have roving gangs of bandits and, as troubling as the US gangster groups are, they are nothing compared to being a foreigner living abroad who encounters the highway bandits.

Take a look at the discussions taking place throughout Europe. They are talking about panic plans to shut down border crossings for as long as two years and to prevent currency movement. Image living in southeast Asia and trying to get access to one’s bank account in France if this shut down were to take place.

Then there is the cultural problems and the possible language problems. My parents spoke numerous languages and when they lived abroad in Europe, they were met with significant rudeness by Europeans who disliked Americans. My parents’ language accents were such that they would have sounded like natives, unlike my speaking abilities it would clear to everyone that I was speaking the foreign language with an American accent.

A friend’s son is currently living in Brazil and he is horrified by the abject poverty of the people. Where he is living in Brazil, they are having a severe drought which is so bad that he is only capable of hauling water in a bucket and taking a sponge bath. Living like the locals? – “Just Me”

JWR:
That was an interesting article by Peter H. so I will send it out to friends. Being mobile makes sense.  Stockpiling many things will just tie you down if you have to relocate if things get crazy (riots, looting, mayhem etc).  There is little protection from mobs descending on a farm/retreat with only a small number of people to protect it. – L.A.M.

JWR Replies: I disagree with you, L.A.M.. If you carefully you pick a retreat that is truly remote and off the beaten track, then it won’t be in the path of urban refugees or looters. And if your retreat is well-defended, then looters with common sense will move on to easier pickings, rather than take casualties.

Also, we need to consider that the farm confiscation mobs in Zimbabwe that Peter mentioned were state-sponsored, so the police and army were no help to the landowners. (In fact, in many cases they helped transport the ZANU-PF thugs to the farms!) Unless our own government gets grabby, then we will have at least limited recourse to the law–and local law enforcement–to help back us up.

Economics and Investing:

Steve C. chalked up this one: Social Explosion Concerns in Greece Following Election

Pierre M. sent: Debt crisis: Greek government will be forced to seek third bail-out

B.B. suggested this: Thanks Obamacare: 83% of Doctors Surveyed Say They May Quit

Spanish short-term debt costs reach alarm levels. (Thanks to Sue C. for the link.)

Items from The Economatrix:

Europe on the Brink as Greek Crisis Comes to a Climax

City By City, Here’s Your Guide To The Painfully Slow Economic Recovery

Signs Of US Weakness Mount As Confidence, Output Fall

Payrolls Climb In 27 US States, Jobless Rate Rises In 18

Odds ‘n Sods:

Another Self-Reliance Expo will be held in Dallas, Texas, July 27-28, 2012. Their most recent event (in Colorado Springs, Colorado), was a huge success. OBTW, wear your SurvivalBlog T-shirt or hat and see who you meet.

   o o o

Michael R. suggested this scholarly piece in Science magazine: Generic Indicators for Loss of Resilience Before a Tipping Point Leading to Population Collapse

   o o o

David Nash of the excellent Shepherd School web site wrote to mention that their extensive free reference library (thousands of military and firearm manuals) has just been revamped to make it better organized.

   o o o

The staff of Radio Free Redoubt has announced TEOTWAWKI Readiness EXercise (TREX) 2012 for August 10-11-12, 2012. (Friday through Sunday.) Get involved!

   o o o

Charming news, by way of Reader J. McC.: Flame virus can hijack PCs by spoofing Windows Update

Note from JWR:

Today we present another two entries for Round 41 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. B.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and E.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 41 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Don’t Stockpile, Get Global — Conversations with a Rhodesian Expat and Being Financially Global, by Peter H.

Some friends recently bought a self sustaining bit of farmland in the American Redoubt. Part of it was a desire to get back to the land, part of it was for safety and security in a future TEOTWAWKI situation. I wished them well and was impressed with the desire to get back to the land. But deep down I don’t believe that a remote farm is necessarily safe, defensible, or a better bet than being mobile. It comes down to a conversation I had with a Rhodesian (Zimbabwean by passport, but he called himself Rhodesian) expat in Thailand about a decade ago.

This was a man who owned a family farm and knew others who owned farms. He decided to leave Zimbabwe before the height of the farmland grabs, just after a mob came for some friends of his. These friends had plenty of stockpiled weapons and ammunition; they had water, food, and ham radio contact with nearby farms. But what they didn’t have was the hundreds (note this is what I was told, so I am unsure if this number is an exaggeration) of people that the mob that came for their farm had. Their guns were useless against this large mob. They couldn’t just shoot indiscriminately into the crowd without drawing the ire of the military [which was tacitly supporting the farm invasions]. Shots fired to try to disperse the crowd led them to charge. The sons at the farm were seriously beaten up trying to stand their ground. The family made it out in a pickup truck, leaving behind their stockpile of guns and ammunition, which with their farm went to the Mugabe regime.

Seeing this writing on the wall, the man sold his farm at a huge discount to the workers who worked on the farm. His hope was they could maintain the farm intact. At least he could have a legacy for his family farm if he could not keep it financially. Unfortunately even these workers ultimately lost the farm to the “war veterans” of the ZANU-PF. The irrigation system got stripped, the farm got parceled up into unproductive one acre lots. The man left for Thailand, ran a tour company, and as of that point in time never returned to his country. I met him in 200. The land grabs continued throughout the next decade.

Some people did try to stay and fight for their land in Zimbabwe. Most notably Mike Campbell and Richard Etheredge took the Zimbabwean government to court in a tribunal of judges of the South African Development Community (SADC) regional trade bloc. For opposing the government the Etheredges were threatened with their lives and had their belongings ransacked. The New York Times reported:

“The gang had looted the three family homes on the farm of all but the large mounted heads of an eland and a kudu, according to photos taken before and after the invasion. They used a jackhammer to break through the foot-thick wall of the walk-in safe. The haul from the homes and the farm included 1,760 pounds of ivory, 14 handmade guns, 14 refrigerators and freezers, 5 stoves, 3 tractors, a pickup truck and 400 tons of oranges, the family said.”

The Campbells suffered a far worse fate:
“[A] far more violent farm invasion occurred at the home of Mike and Angela Campbell, also here in Chegutu. Mr. Campbell, 76, was the first farmer to take on Mr. Mugabe before the tribunal.
A gang came that Sunday afternoon, pouring out of a pickup truck and a bus, Mrs. Campbell said. Her son-in-law, Ben Freeth, 38, said that he was bludgeoned with rifle butts and that his skull and ribs were fractured. Mike Campbell was also severely beaten.
Mrs. Campbell, 66, said she was dragged by her hair, after her arm was broken in multiple places, and dumped next to her husband. The doctor who treated them in the capital, Harare, signed affidavits confirming the severity of their injuries.” [JWR Adds: Their story was well documented in the film Mugabe and the White African, which is available via Netflix streaming.]

During Mugabe’s inauguration the Campbells were abducted and tortured until they signed a formal withdrawal of the case from the SADC. The son had his feet beaten, a common form of torture in Zimbabwe which often leaves people crippled for life. The case ultimately went forward and the SADC ruled in favor of the Campbells. The Zimbabwean government withdrew from the SADC August 7th 2009. The farms were burned down August 30th 2009. In April 2011 Mike Campbell died; his family says it was due to complications from having been tortured.

Ultimately these seizures did not turn out to be a wise national policy, leaving economic ruin:
“By contrast at least 90 per cent of formerly white-owned farms – more than 20 million acres – lie fallow since Mr Mugabe began chasing whites off their rural properties, while agricultural exports, which once earned 40 per cent of Zimbabwe’s foreign exchange, have collapsed, and more than half the population needs food aid.”

Zimbabwe used to be a rich food exporter with a dollar that was on parity with the British pound. Money printing combined with the erosion of exports destroyed that. But totalitarian regimes have the interest of control not prosperity as their main focus.

Why am I sharing all of this? Well the man in Thailand’s story has had a big impact on me in strengthening my resolve that I never want to live in a totalitarian country. This has had the effect of making me a lot more global in my thinking. I’ve worked and traveled in enough countries close to the bottom of economic and development indicators to know it is a long way down (US is #4 right now), but I also have seen that even in countries with histories of free speech or democratic process, it is possible to slip into a totalitarian state over a 20-30 year period. Contrary to many survival based forum conceptions, that if the money dries up so will the government involvement in your life, I believe that as the money gets tight governments get more repressive and controlling (look at North Korea, Myanmar, Zimbabwe, Romania in the 1980s). Desperate measures get taken in the name of security of the state, and the population is left to adjust, those who don’t fall in line or leave get crushed. Sadly not just in Zimbabwe, but elsewhere, Congo, Guatemala, Haiti, people in rural areas seem to see some of the worst atrocities by the state (this differs in all out conflicts like Bosnia where urban areas would be battlegrounds).

Totalitarianism is my biggest survival concern. Now I’ve been through enough natural disasters that I have enough food and have backup energy and water systems to make it comfortably through a couple months of grid down. But I live in an east coast city, I rent an apartment, other than the aforementioned food I don’t really have stockpiles. I don’t have much attachment to any of my stuff, my wife and I have been known to just uproot and go live in foreign countries. Normally I’d be the antithesis of a survival type. But being primarily concerned about economic collapse and the loss of freedom, stockpiling for scarcity is not in my strategy.
I feel economic decline will take a while. Not to say that portions of that slide won’t happen quickly creating Russian or Argentine style shortages and bank holidays, but there will be time to see things changing and get out. The important thing is having the hard currency and flexibility to be mobile, even if everybody else in the US has a frozen bank account.

Working largely in the international development industry I don’t have much, but I am more global than most. I am liquid in a basket of currencies with bank accounts around the globe and I’d recommend this to others. There is nothing mysterious about doing this, you have to file extra forms to the IRS annually (FBAR), but it is perfectly legal and relatively easy to maintain offshore accounts especially in this age of online banking.

My hope is that when the SHTF in the US if things look dark for the future of freedoms here I’ll be tied into businesses on a global stage that can guarantee my revenue and I’ll be left living in relative style in some comparatively untouched global city. Even when things go down hill, like during WWII, there are still locations of wealth and safety. It’s a bet that I can find and work my way into those places, but it is a bet I’d take any day over stockpiling ammunition and trying to survive a gunfight in the countryside.

If you want to make a start at international banking I’d suggest the following resources (disclaimer, all banks are subject to health concerns in this climate, laws governing international banking vary from country to country, so do your own research):
Bank of China: minimum $500 for a Yuan account. This, however, is very restricted. This is only a savings account not a checking. It is hard to get your money out of this account if you don’t know people in China.
Isle of Man: £2,500 minimum deposit for British pound, Euro or Dollar accounts. Get an international Visa card.
Multiple Countries in the Caribbean: bank in multiple Caribbean countries. Apply as a non-resident. Hold CHF accounts.
Multiple Countries: Enroll to be a student for a semester and then get a bank account and keep it.
Multiple Countries: Start a local business, get a bank account.
Multiple Countries: Pay a law firm to set you up with a bank account and a holding corporation.
As for managing your affairs in the US, I recommend services such as, online bill pay, Google Voice, Earthclassmail and PostalMethods to virtualize your communications.

What about citizenship? Well it is possible to move around as a “perpetual traveler” (PT). But dual citizenship is something you can work on depending on what country you are in. Most countries have pathways to citizenship that are less onerous than existing US laws. “For example, you can became a citizen… 

…of Ireland if you have an Irish grandparent.(1)(2) 
…of France if you’ve lived and paid taxes for five consecutive years.(3)(4) 
…of Brazil if you’ve lived and paid taxes for four consecutive years.(5)(6)  “

My advice to others is get global resources in place now that enable you to become an expat and not a refugee. If I have learned anything from people who live in poor and repressive countries now, it is that if you are skilled and educated this strategy can be a good one for your family. Pick a few countries and get to know them (knowing multiple languages opens significantly the options for where you can go on the globe). Globally, historically, diaspora tend to do well in countries with resources, especially in the second generation.

I think you will see a lot more migration when things start to get tough. I believe this is a good thing. Not everybody is meant to be a self sufficient farmer (I know this, I used to be a farmer), and there are worse things than planning now so you can find yourself running a small business in Thailand or Norway or New Zealand talking about how you got out before it all fell apart. Finally, if it doesn’t all fall apart there is nothing unsound about having diversified international revenues even if you are staying put.