Letter Re: Pre-TEOTWAWKI Survival is All in The Numbers

Dear James:
It occurred to me while training kids on water safety, that some of the most basic elements of surviving everyday life are perhaps neglected by many of us while focusing on worst case scenarios.  We can be so wrapped up in getting through TEOTWAWKI that we neglect first surviving to TEOTWAWKI.

It doesn’t do any good to be fully prepped for TEOTWAWKI if you, or a loved one, dies in the meantime from one of the statistically most likely causes of death – namely disease and accidents.

By the numbers, if you are younger an auto accident may be your biggest threat.  If you are older likely a debilitating disease that is dependent to a large extent on your health and wellness lifestyle choices.

To kick off the conversation:
• ROAD SAFETY::   Do you (and your kids) know how to swim well enough to survive an accidental immersion into cold, rough water?
• FIREARMS SAFETY:  Can you (and your kids) recite the 4 rules of firearms safety, backwards and forwards.  Do you insist your shooting buddies keep the same high standard?
• HEALTH:   Is your weight within 10% of ideal?
• Do you refrain from smoking?
• Have you minimized toxic foods in your diet (GMO corn and soy, aspartame, MSG, etc.)  
• Do you pay attention to taking in nutrient dense foods versus empty (or toxic) calories?
• Do you pay attention to keeping  your immune system strong through diet, exercise and nutritional supplementation?

The “bonus” here is that all of these mundane health and safety fundamentals needed to survive likely causes of death  pre-TEOTWAWKI,  would be even more critical post-TEOTWAWKI.

Just like in wars – and likely in many forms of disaster – it’s not the actual conflict or disaster that kills but the accidents and disease that result from it.   Historically disease and starvation are bigger killers in wartime than is enemy fire.   In the first Gulf War, there were more US deaths from vehicle accidents than there were to enemy fire.

Regards, – OSOM

JWR Replies: Thanks for mentioning those important points and keying them to the ground truth of the statistical list of the most likely causes of death. It does indeed make sense to employ an actuarial perspective of the world.

It is noteworthy that “Violence” rates just 0.98% of deaths, but in the event of a widespread disaster, war, or revolt, that figure can quickly jump into double digits. And a similar jump for “Infectious and parasitic diseases” (normally 23.04%) and many other other listed lethal diseases–most notably diarrhea, which is normally 3.15%–in the event of a pandemic. Ditto for “Drowning”, which is normally 0.67%, but that risk of course multiplies greatly in a flood or tsunami. (Does everyone in you family know how to swim?) These are a few of the reasons why SurvivalBlog is so popular: Wise people realize that the world around us can change very quickly, and we need to prepare for those events.

In looking at the list of most likely causes of death, which all start with two digits, one digit, or even with just a decimal point, most people skip by pondering the big number at the top, the only one with three digits–the one that reads: 100% (All causes.) To me, that is the truly sobering number. Let’s face it: We are all going to die (barring the fulfillment Mark 13:26 in our lifetimes) and the human lifespan is pitifully short compared to that of a Sequoia tree. So to my mind the far larger questions are:

1.) Are you right with Christ, so that you are fully assured of your final destination? (There are just two, Heaven or Hell, where we will spend eternity.)
2.) Are you sharing the Gospel with your children, and others?
3.) What legacy are you passing on to future generations? How will you be remembered? Are you helping to improve the world, or just taking, using and abusing? Are you putting your descendants in a better position to survive, thrive, and live long and happy lives? Are you writing and publishing words and music (or creating art, architecture, films, software, or other lasting legacies) that are helpful, positive, and edifying or that are degenerate?Are you truthful, fair, and forthright in all of your public dealings?
4.) Are you raising children who are content, polite, and helpful, or are they foul-mouthed, grossly pierced, heavily tattooed, addicted, and lost?

I must also note that taking this long view of life can radically reduce your risk of suicide. (Which, according to the stats, is normally 1.53% of deaths.) Just last week I heard about the suicide of an anesthesiologist in the American Redoubt. Although he was an accomplished prepper and he made a very good living, he was not in Christian fellowship and had developed a drinking problem. His experience should be a warning to all of us.

It is not my intent to sound preachy, but that is where I stand. Think about it.



Letter Re: Black Berkey Water Filter Problems

Hello Mr. Rawles:
I expect you have already heard about this problem, but the black Berkey water filters have an alarmingly high failure rate (in my personal experience, for what it’s worth, 4 out of 4).  The silicone caulk that attaches the black ceramic-like filter itself to it’s plastic base fails, and water runs right through the failure spot, without being passed through the filter material.  People could be unknowingly drinking unfiltered water, as I was.  I read online that adding red food coloring is one way to test the integrity of the filter unit, I do not know if this is true.  Thank you, as always, for everything you do, I have received so very much from you. – Carol D.

JWR Replies: Sending them back to the company under warranty for a free replacement works. (At least it does now–a couple of years ago, they just mailed you back identical filters that also failed.) But I learned that there is also a practical way to fix them yourself.



Letter Re: Risky to Live Near a Small Town Airport?

Dear JWR,
I find your blog and its associated advertisers very useful.  In considering buying some land and a small cabin in northern Wisconsin as a back up retreat in case of societal collapse and my question involves its location.  The site can be converted to an off-the-grid living situation easily enough.  It is near the local town so associating with others for mutual assistance is a very good possibility. But it is also near the local rural airport and I’m wondering if in your opinion this increases the possibility of interference by others and by how much?  Perhaps you can comment. I’m weighing the pros and cons of these circumstances. Thank you. Tom H.

JWR Replies: In my estimation living near small local airport is not a risk, unless your property is truly contiguous to the airport’s perimeter fence. If that is the case, that could put you in contact with Federal authorities.

Unlike railroad tracks–which create a likely line of drift for looters and refugees–in the event of TEOTWAWKI I anticipate that airports will only attract a few folks looking to pilfer fuel or to steal tools.  And once it is clear that there is no longer anything of immediate value there will be few who come to a small airport. Perhaps just a few folks looking for scrap metal.



Letter Re: The Quest for Safety: Is Jackson County, Florida America’s Ideal Retreat Locale?

Jim,
I recently noticed your recent comparison of Jackson County, Florida, with Lewis, County, Idaho, and the follow-ups posts. I hope I can add some additional information since I attended high school in the county and have many relatives living there. Just as a point of reference my mid-1970s High school graduating class had less than 60 people and only five of them attended and graduated college. I know of only one of those people who still lives there. Youth tend to move away if they can.

As poster Kathi indicated, the county is rather closed to outsiders. The only town of any size is Marianna, with the usual array of Wal-Mart and related-tier stores. The county is bisected E/W with I-10 and N/S by US-231. The closest towns of any size are Dothan, Alabama and Tallahassee, Florida, both about an hour away. She is correct that the only major employers are prisons (state and federal) and the local hospital. There is also Sunland, a developmental disabilities resident facility. EMS response time to most parts of the county are in the 10-20 minute range. Much of the county is still crisscrossed by dirt roads (mainly sand.) The smaller roads were not named [and marked] until the early-1990s when E-911 service was introduced. Cell phone service is rather spotty with frequent dropped calls. Sometimes if you are on the east side of the county, your cell phone will often link with the system from Gadsden county which is in the Eastern time zone, which makes for some interesting double-takes!

If you are an individual with skills, establishing a customer base will be difficult. Most work is done based on word-of-mouth recommendations. The population is generally aging or retired and wary of ‘newcomers’. There is little professional employment with most of it occupied by locals that are in a family business (legal, medical, etc.) There is little entertainment available in the county. Hunting and fishing are major outdoor activities; the county is adjacent to Lake Seminole, know for bass fishing. Also the eastern border of the county is the Apalachicola River, which runs from the Jim Woodruff Dam to the Gulf of Mexico.

Anyone considering moving to this area should perform significant due diligence prior to making a move. – J.D.





Odds ‘n Sods:

An interesting novel has just been released that includes some outdoor survival and tactics tidbits: Marine One Down! (It is available in paperback and quite inexpensively for Kindle and Nook readers.)

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The folks at KnifeUp have created an updated reference web page on state knife possession and carry laws for the US. This data was researched in 2013, so it is current. But of course it is wise to check your state’s legal web page. Their web site also has some useful product reviews.

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In the midst of America’s acute ammo shortage, the UK’s press is moaning that their Ministry of Defence (MOD) has too much Radway Green 5.56mm ammo. The Daily Mail journalist who wrote this piece sounds convinced that this ammo will spoil like last week’s bananas. (But in fact, it should still properly ventilate bad guys quite satisfactorily in the year 2050 or even 2100.) My solution: Just declare it surplus and send it on over!

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Never bring a toy gun to a gun fight.

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Jay in Missouri recommended some commentary by Libertarian science fiction novelist (and shooting instructor) Larry Correia: On Profiling and Stand Your Ground



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"I believe that every individual is naturally entitled to do as he pleases with himself and the fruits of his labor, so far as it in no way interferes with any other men’s rights." – Abraham Lincoln



Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 47 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course. (A $1,195 value.) B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), F.) Two BirkSun.com photovoltaic backpacks (one Level, and one Atlas, both black), with a combined value of $275, G.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. and H.) A roll of $10 face value in pre-1965 U.S. 90% silver quarters, courtesy of GoldAndSilverOnline.com. The current value of this roll is at least $225.

Second Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. C.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. D.) $300 worth of ammo from Patriot Firearms and Munitions. (They also offer a 10% discount for all SurvivalBlog readers with coupon code SVB10P.), E.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials and F.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value. E.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value), and F.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 47 ends on July 31st so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Deep Winter Prepping, by Ronald in Alberta

I live on a small ranch in Northern Alberta, Canada. I’m approximately a half hour drive to the nearest small town, and the winters here can be tremendous. I’ve always taken a slightly different approach to preps than most of my American counter parts, because most energy, food, shelter, water and defense advice floating around the Internet is not cold weather viable. In this short paper I will attempt to relay to you, the reader, the importance of being ready for winter in all aspects of survival. This is a short collection of some thoughts and experiences I’ve had living through Northern Canada winters.

1) Heat is what you need in the winter. ‘Of course!’ you say. It’s hard to emphasis the priority having heat takes when it is -40 (Celsius or Fahrenheit it doesn’t matter). Food, shelter, water, medicine, and defense all rely on having enough heat. You can’t clean with, or drink, water that is frozen. Even eating snow is not recommended because of the energy your body must use to heat the frozen water. You can’t eat meat that is frozen solid. You can’t live in uninsulated flimsy structures not designed to handle the weight of snow, or the extreme life-sucking cold. You can’t stay in a LP/OP for very long without heat. It is harder to fight with a rifle when you cannot feel your hands or they ache intensely from being frozen. Everything takes a back seat to keeping you and your families body temperature at the correct level. You will find that all aspects of surviving a winter are ultimately steps towards providing enough heat to live. I think most preppers agree a good wood stove and a way to efficiently obtain dry fire wood in the winter is a must. A Ski Doo (snowmobile), a sled for hauling, a good chainsaw, extra chains, oils, parts, fuels, tools etc are all requisites as well as the ability to differentiate dead standing wood (the dry stuff) with live trees that are simply dormant for the winter (not dry stuff) and transport it back home. Have multiple methods of heating the indoors.

2) Food is akin to warmth. Your body will automatically try to keep warm if it detects colder temperatures, burning extra calories. You will find that in order to maintain a healthy mind and body, you will need to start a supplement regime through the coldest winter months, when there is little to no fresh vegetables or fruits, and mainly a diet of preserves and game. Canned goods that become frozen may go bad, or the container may rupture. Unless you have an extensive organic garden that provides a winter’s worth of preserves each summer, you will most likely end up eating some GMO canned products. Hunting changes with the coming of snow. Deep snow can become a serious problem for most hunters as mobility in four to five feet of snow without snow shoes or a skidoo is minimal and exhausting. For game you will mostly find mammals such as coyotes, deer, elk, etc. All can be taxing to move or prepare in deep snow. Ice fishing requires an ice auger, and multiple lines in multiple holes to really be successful.

3) Water is relatively easy to find. See that white stuff? Yup. Water. It needs heat. For every shovel full of snow you melt, you will get approximately 1/3 that volume in water. Start shoveling! If you have a good well, the water will remain liquid until it is exposed at ground level. If you heat water then put it outside it will freeze even faster, so don’t do your animals a favour. All lakes, ponds, and rivers will freeze over and become hidden under snow, so you need a water source.

4) Shelter is a means of efficient heat. It contains the heat from your stove for a longer time. It keeps the wind off you, which can make the cold multitudes worse. It is a place to prepare food, practice good hygiene, and spend time with friends and family, safe from the hostile environment outside. Temporary shelters such as igloos can work if one is skilled enough and snow conditions allow snow to be packed together. This is not always possible in extreme cold. An alternative is using layered pine tree branches in a sturdy lean-to design, with a fire in front projecting heat. Note that you must dig down through the frozen snow before starting a fire for obvious reasons. Be creative. Keep the wind off your skin. Contain the heat safely. Find a way to dry your clothes and skin off while in shelter. Your shelter needs to handle huge amounts of snow weight, and will still need to be cleared. If you own a house you must shovel your roofs off if too much snow builds up on it, or it may collapse or deform, and leak.

5) While I have never been in a gun fight in the middle of winter, there are some common sense things that everyone needs to take into consideration. Cold hands are the least of your worries! We are all taught to ‘get off the X’, but this becomes problematic in a situation where you may have to run through a foot or more of snow. Its slippery, heavy, and you don’t know what you’re stepping on under that snow. If it gets a little deeper you simply cannot run, much less retain a sight picture of your firearm. Sinking into a snow bank up to your waist while someone is trying to kill you is probably not a good thing. Going prone may save you, but its a gamble if you’ll land softly on the snow and ready to fight, or end up swimming in the snow looking for your buried firearms (which may or may not function after being packed with snow). You will be wet and cold when you stand up again.  The first nations had a proper solution to this. Snow shoes are life savers. I recommend rifle drills where you practice positional shooting with snow shoes as well as getting off the X. Go on winter hikes through a forest area with the shoes on. Skis become problematic due to the length especially if you are in a thick tangle of branches. Cold weather will affect the ballistics of your rifles tremendously. Canadian Rangers still use the Lee-Enfield which is a .30 caliber bolt action rifle, because the AR-15 platform simply does not perform in the super cold climate. It tends to have problems with its gas impingement system and the arctic climate and dense air causes the small .223 round to lose stability much much quicker. Also a bolt action with iron sights is much more likely to function even after being jammed full of ice and snow and moisture. M1As, AKs and VZ58s will all work very well in the extreme cold, provided that you keep your actions clear [and de-lubricated].  Winter is a completely different beast. Everyone can see your footprints in the snow, and tell how long ago you were there. You need a whole new set of winter camo’s and gear such as no-fog goggles and proper gloves, boots, and balaclavas.  What will you do if someone blocks the road off in front of you? Your vehicle cant go through the snow in the ditches. If your vehicle is disabled you are put into an immediate heat-shelter survival situation on the side of the road, and you could be wounded as well.  If someone comes into your house in the middle of the night, and you decide to run… will you make it till morning at -40 degrees? A huge truck full of cut firewood would be a target in a winter TEOTWAWKI situation. Snow banks need at least a few feet of width to stop most rifle rounds. The snow will reflect moon light making night time bright as day (almost!) and if you put snow in your mouth it will stop people from seeing your breath. Batteries for night vision devices and red dot sights will die quicker. If you bury a weapon cache in the ground during summer months, that same ground will be hard as a rock and full of ice during the winter. That is… after you find it and shovel all the snow off it first! When the spring comes and all that snow melts guess where that water will go? Yup. Right down into the hole you dug for your end-of-the-world rifle.

Study the Eastern Front of the Second World War and the hardships many soldiers went through during those winters.

Think outside the box. Last winter I stayed in a trappers tent with a wood stove. To handle the weight of the snow on the tent, I drove fence posts in beside the tent and tied all of the supports to the fencing post, and after that I threw a double layer tarp over the entire tent. The result was an outer layer of tarp with a approximately a foot of space between it and the inner tent. This space acted as an insulator for inside. The outer tarp, which was always frozen, would dehumidify the air by building up frost on the inside. I stayed comfortable and warm in a 12′ x 20′ tent during a deep Canadian North winter. It was dry, so I was able to safely use my laptop and some lights inside. I would not recommend storing electronics in a winter tent such as this because it will collect frost, and when that frost melts and electricity is applied… you may has well have thrown it in a lake. I had to run my stove constantly. Cutting firewood and hauling it on a shoveled drive way with my quad was a huge calorie burn. That’s on a day when my quad would start easy. I will be purchasing a good working skidoo this fall, as well as storing several containers of stabilized gasoline.



Letter Re: Stealth Wood Cutting and Splitting with Electric Tools

James,
I wanted offer some praise to J.J.S. and is thorough submission titled Heating with Wood 101. I’m following his lead and wanted to offer your readers some additional ideas on wood processing with some stealth after TSHTF. Running a 50cc chainsaw and a 34-ton log splitter is all fine and dandy when there’s no one around meaning to do you any harm but its completely inappropriate in a TEOTWAWKI situation. If you are lucky enough to have a renewable energy source its advisable to switch to electrical tools because they are so quiet. Either of the big box stores carry electric chainsaws and electric, 5-ton log splitters at reasonable prices. I’ve also found that they have a semi-professional grade chain sharpener that’ll make the teeth on your chain look like a mirror when sharpened. While the 5 ton splitter isn’t going to split 3 foot diameter pine trees like a gas one will, it will go through the same wood once you quarter it with a maul. Just add a bit of oil to the maul on the splitter and it’ll do just fine. Here are quick links to the three products I recommend:

Regards, – Gilpin Guy

JWR Replies: I appreciate your advice, but the brands that you mentioned are mostly made in mainland China. (See my many admonitions about China’s laogui prison factories.)

The WORX brand tools and their batteries are all made in China. One alternative: I have a Makita 14-inch electric chain saw, and I’ve been quite happy with it. To the best of my knowledge, those are still made in Japan.

The Task Force brand tools (a house brand of Lowe’s) are also imported. Many of those come from China. An American-made alternative that is more powerful (16-tons of force) is produced by Ramsplitter. As electric splitters go, these are fast and powerful. Another American-made electric splitter is the 10-ton dual-action splitter made by DR. Unlike a typical gas engine splitter, most electric splitters cannot be heard from more than a short distance away.

The Buffalo Tools brand products are made in China. An excellent American-made alternative is made by Silvey. Unlike the cheap imported chain grinders, these cut a precision square notch.



Letter Re: How to Survive a Serious Burn

Mr. Rawles,

I always read your site with interest, especially the medical advice that is written by Dr. Koelker and others, as this is my area of expertise.

Dr. Koelker’s article regarding burn care made very brief mention of a technique called hypodermoclysis as an alternative method for intravenous infusion of fluids in the event of a severe burn. Essentially, hypodermoclysis involves using a regular IV catheter to infuse fluids into the patient’s subcutaneous tissue. Unfortunately, it wouldn’t be a replacement for IV fluids in the case she uses as an example. It appears that the maximum amount of fluids that can be infused over a 24-hour period is about 3,000 mL, using two sites, which would fall short of her fluid replacement calculations using the Parkland formula.

I think in combination with oral rehydration therapy in a conscious patient, hypodermoclysis would be a valid option to assist in maintaining fluid balance in a burn patient, but would not otherwise be sufficient to keep a burn patient hydrated.

Additionally, in a TEOTWAWKI situation with limited resources, knowing when to provide “comfort care” versus aggressive fluid resuscitation might be useful. Although there are newer guidelines with regards to burn survivability, they probably only apply to burn centers. Once upon a time, the age of the patient + the % area of burned skin = the patient’s chance of dying. A revision adds an additional 17% chance of death if the patient’s burn includes an inhalation injury.

For further reading:

  • Hypodermoclysis: An Alternative Infusion Technique. Am Fam Physician. 2001 Nov 1;64(9):1575-1579.
  • Simplified Estimates of the Probability of Death After Burn Injuries: Extending and Updating the Baux Score. J Trauma. 2010 Mar;68(3):690-7

– Todd B., MD



News From The American Redoubt:

There has recently been some discussion in the blogosphere of Castle Doctrine and Stand Your Ground laws. To clarify: All but one of the five American Redoubt states currently have solid Castle Doctrine (right to defend your habitation) laws on the books. These include strong protections of the rights of homeowners and house renters in Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. There is also a modified form of the Castle Doctrine in force in Washington as well as a location nonspecific Stand Your Ground law. But Oregon’s law is presently ambiguous. Their “duty to retreat” law enacted in 1971 was partly overturned by a state supreme court decision in 2007. There is an active movement to improve Oregon’s law, but a recent ballot measure on this failed in 2012. The long term prospects for passage of a Castle Doctrine law in Oregon are good, given the preponderance of states that now have such laws.

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Are you an experienced machinist? Then there is probably a job for you in the Redoubt! In Idaho, labor shortage hurts gun industry. (Thanks to R.B.S. for the link.)

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Some disappointing news: Idaho Cooperates with Homeland Security on National ID

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Montana Anti-Location Spying Bill Becomes Law With Governor Signature. The editor of the Lightning War For Liberty blog noted that this bill was passed in April–several months before Edward Snowden’s NSA revelations.

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The American Redoubt influx continues! Pastor Chuck Baldwin (up in Missoula, Montana) reported in his latest e-newsletter: “Once again, last Sunday, we had visitors with us from at least 7 or 8 states. The Sunday before that, the number was 10-12. And many of these folks are trying to make arrangements to move to the valley to be part of Liberty Fellowship.”

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Reader G.J. suggested a Red State Talk podcast show called The Uncooperative Radio Show with Brian and Susan Bonner, in Montana. G.J. summarized: “Brian Bonner is a paramedic originally from New York who was once pro-union but who is now a Constitutionalist who is interested in self-sufficient living.”





Odds ‘n Sods:

Camping Survival 23% off sale on all Backpackers Pantry Freeze Dried Foods ends on July 28th, so order soon.

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Mike Williamson (SurvivalBlog’s Editor At Large) wrote to mention: “Due to publishing deadlines, my novel Freehold originally came out only in paperback.  A decade later, there is finally a signed, limited edition hardcover scheduled. Anyone interested should place a pre-order as soon as they can, since this will be a one-time press run.”

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Max is back! It appears that Mad Max: Fury Road is now in post-production and will be released in the summer of 2014. Those of us who enjoyed The Road Warrior are anxiously awaiting the release.

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Cheryl N. Mentioned a new secure Internet communications system: RetroShare.

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The leftist mass media can’t Trayvon this one: Cleveland man shoots intruder holding fiancée at gunpoint; Resident applauded by councilman.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

A: Because it messes up the order in which people normally read text.
Q: Why is it such a bad thing?
A: Top-posting.
Q: What is the most annoying thing in e-mail?

– SurvivalBlog Reader L.R.S.