News From The American Redoubt:

America’s conservative heartland–a lot of it is in the Redoubt and Plains states. This map, courtesy of Nick Gillespie of the Hit & Run blog at Reason.com shows just how conservative the American Redoubt congressional districts are, compared to much of the rest of the nation. (The Republican-held congressional districts are shown in red.)

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The Free State Wyoming forum was “suspended” about six weeks ago, and the members were unable to contact Boston T. Party or discover any reason for the suspension. So they decided to go ahead and establish another forum, called “Wyoming Mavericks” that is independent of FSW. (Click here, for some background.)

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Part of the Monderno team has relocated to Montana.

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R.B.S. sent: 3,600 mink released by activists at Idaho mink farm.

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Montana State Representative Krayton Kerns warns Montanans need to be vigilant about preserving their state’s well-written Stand Your Ground law.

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Reader R.B.S. in Idaho sent: States respond to Idaho’s concealed weapons rules.

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Report from First annual “Northwest Patriot and Self-Reliance Rally”

Economics and Investing:

G.G. sent: The lame jobs report, in eight charts.

News from Spain: Bank bailout fund admits losses have reached 36 billion euros

Consulates and the Vatican in chaos as HSBC tells them to find another bank

Items from The Economatrix:

Full circle: Joblessness at 2008 level

Record Jobs For Old Workers; For Others – Not So Much

Ten Times More Waiter and Bartender Than Manufacturing Jobs Added in 2013

US Factory Orders Miss (Again); Biggest 4-Month Drop in a Year

Odds ‘n Sods:

F.J.R. sent this from MacLife: Eight Apps for Wilderness Survival. The piece begins: “It might seem counterintuitive to rely on a device so associated with the comforts of civilization for survival in the wilds, but a well-prepared iPhone could mean the difference between life and death when stranded in the great outdoors…”

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Let’s hear it for home schools: They are educating kids better than public schools. (Thanks to Bob G. for the link.)

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Mike Williamson’s latest book Tour of Duty: Stories and Provocations will be released tomorrow.

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A privacy-minded reader in Bend, Oregon wrote to mention that he was having trouble finding a .50 BMG bolt action rifle from a private party seller. In the same e-mail he mentioned that he was in the process of parting up several AR-15s. Well, here are a couple of solutions for him: The Ferret .50 or the Safety Harbor .50. Any adult can buy these .50 BMG upper halves by mail order with no FFL paper trail (Form 4473) and then complete it with a generic AR-15 lower.

Notes from JWR:

August 5th is the sad 64th anniversary of the Mann Gulch Fire in Montana that took the lives of 13 firefighters (including 12 smokejumpers and one former smokejumper), in 1949. The intense, fast-moving forest fire was in what later became Gates of the Mountains Wilderness. The events of that fire were chronicled in the book Young Men and Fire by Norman Maclean and immortalized in the haunting lyrics of the ballad Cold Missouri Waters by James Keelaghan. This anniversary of course reminds us of the recent Yarnell Hill fire in Arizona, where 19 hotshots died. Please keep their family members in your prayers.

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After hearing the recent news, it is probably a good time to avoid visiting US embassies, consulates, or other places westerners congregate anywhere in the Islamic world: Senior U.S. Official: Intercepted Al Qaeda Communications Indicate Planned Attack ‘Big,’ ‘Strategically Significant’. FWIW, I think they’ve overlooked giving alerts in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei.

Safer in the City? Statistics Don’t Lie, But They Can Obfuscate

Several readers sent me a link to a study by researchers from the University of Pennsylvania recently published in the Annals of Emergency Medicine that had some surprising results: They concluded that big cities are statistically safer than small towns.

This study, titled Safety in Numbers: Are Major Cities the Safest Places in the United States? has a number of flaws. First, it treats deaths by intentional violence equally with accidental deaths and deaths related to the use of alcohol and illicit drugs. This is not quite fair, because the former are not nearly so avoidable as the latter. If I want to avoid most drunk driving accidents then I can simply abstain from drinking. (Unless of course, it is a drunk that hits my car, or me as a pedestrian.) That means that I can effectively excuse myself from being part of the statistics. But if I want to minimize my chance of getting robbed and shot to death, then I can only do so by changing my ZIP code. And if I want to avoid high speed traffic accidents, I can drive more conservatively. Again, that means that I can in part at least excuse myself from being part of the statistics, or at least lower my actuarial risk.

The “flattening” of volitional differences by the researchers also ignores the psychological impact of various forms of death. All families are of course aggrieved by the loss of a loved one. But consider this: What would be the quality of your sleep for the rest of your life be if your teenage daughter were killed: A.) In a simple highway traffic accident and you never saw her body, or B.) Your home was invaded by a gang, they tied everyone up, and then you witnessed your daughter being violated and then murdered? To a statistician, it is all the same. But to you and me, not all “injury-related” deaths are equal.

Another flaw is that while the University of Pennsylvania study narrowed in on trauma, it ignores lifestyle differences that can contribute to significantly longer life spans that would put then outside of statistical norms. A non-smoking, non-drinking rural person who drives conservatively, drinks pure water, breathes fresh air, eats veggies from his own garden, and who eats local trout and lean venison is probably going to be a “Statistical Outlier“–that is, someone who defies the odds and lives to a ripe old age. And guess what: That is the very definition of a SurvivalBlog reader, or at least what he strives to be, and urges him to where he plans to live.

One other flaw is that the statistics are all based on the county of deaths occurrence, rather than the county of residence of the decedent. (Death certificates are filed in the place where someone assumes room temperature, rather than their Home of Record.) So this ignores neo-local deaths. I can assure you that there are plenty of them in The American Redoubt. The populations of some towns in the Redoubt doubles each summer. Every year in our county, accidental deaths peak in the summer months. That is when the idiotic drivers from western Washington come here to “play.” (And that play often involves drinking and driving fast, or drinking and water skiing.) And then there is hunting season when, again, urbanites come here to release their Inner Idiot. Many of the deaths due to exposure and snowmobile accidents are neo-local. And the only negligent shooting death in recent memory involved out-of-state hunters. Many of these yahoos come from either Seattle or Portland.

Again, there is the flaw of throwing together intentional deaths with unintentional deaths, in drawing the report’s primarily conclusion. Granted, when you are dead, you are dead. But to say that it is more “risky” to live in the country where people often commute long distances at high speed versus in the Big City, where people commute short distances at low speed is not quite fair. Not when part of the offsetting risk of “injury-related” death risk in urban areas comes from instantaneous lead poisoning when you dare to step outdoors after dark. All things being equal, I’d rather face the risk of spinning out on black ice or the risk of a deer coming through my windshield than I would having a twitchy drug addict sticking a pistol in my face and saying: “Your money or your life.”

Notably, I found this proviso buried in the report: “We chose to exclude terrorist-related deaths, the majority of which are associated with the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States.” Well, well, that was convenient! When 3,000 people get whacked on a single day, it badly messes up your intention to show that cities are “safer”, doesn’t it? I have a news flash for them: Terrorists regularly target big cities, because that is where population and news cameras are concentrated. They don’t intentionally crash airliners full of screaming passengers into Kansas wheat fields. No! They aim for Manhattan skyscrapers. They don’t set off pressure cooker bombs at 5K Fun Runs in Lander, Wyoming. They choose events like the Boston Marathon, where there are huge crowds and more television reporters than you can count. And when they eventually get their hands on some nukes (and they will), they won’t be be shouting “Allahu Ahkbar” and pressing the button in Miles City, Montana. No, it will more likely be in Los Angeles or Dallas. So someday–most likely in the next 20 years–there will be a great big “Boom!” (or more likely simultaneous “booms” in multiple cities, given their proven modus operandi) potentially with millions of deaths. And that event will absolutely blow their statistics right out of the water. (Or should I say, into mushroom clouds.) Then, and only then, will the statisticians say to themselves: “Gee, maybe it is safer out in the boonies.”

I recently did some web wandering, and gathered some interesting murder statistics, from the most recent years available. (These are mostly 2010 stats.):

Honduras homicide rate: 91 per 100,000 people.

El Salvador homicide rate: 69 per 100,000 people.

Detroit, Michigan homicide rate 58 per 100,000 people.

Flint, Michigan homicide rate per 48 100,000 people.

Colombia homicide rate: 32 per 100,000 people.

Oakland, California homicide rate: 22 per 100,000 people.

Washington, DC homicide rate: 21.9 per 100,000 people.

Richmond, California homicide rate: 20.3 per 100,000 people.

Stockton, California homicide rate: 16.8 per 100,000 people.

Louisiana homicide rate: 11.2 per 100,000 people.

Jersey City, New Jersey homicide rate: 10.2 per 100,000 people.

New York City, New York homicide rate: 6.4 per 100,000 people.

Tennessee homicide rate: 5.8 per 100,000 people.

Chile homicide rate: 5.5 per 100,000 people.

Bolivia homicide rate: 5.3 per 100,000 people.

Ohio homicide rate: 4.1 per 100,000 people.

Montana homicide rate: 2.6 per 100,000 people.

Washington (state) homicide rate: 2.3 per 100,000 people.

Maine homicide rate: 1.8 per 100,000 people.

Boise, Idaho homicide rate: 1.5 per 100,000 people.

Wyoming homicide rate: 1.4 per 100,000 people.

Missoula, Montana homicide rate: 1.4 per 100,000 people.

Idaho homicide rate: 1.3 per 100,000 people.

Vermont homicide rate: 1.1 per 100,000 people.

Newport, Washington homicide rate: 0 per 100,000 people.

Condon, Oregon homicide rate: 0 per 100,000 people.

Rogue River, Oregon homicide rate: 0 per 100,000 people.

Lewiston, Idaho homicide rate: 0 per 100,000 people.

Moscow, Idaho homicide rate: 0 per 100,000 people.

Bonners Ferry, Idaho homicide rate: 0 per 100,000 people.

Bozeman, Montana homicide rate: 0 per 100,000 people.

Helena, Montana homicide rate: 0 per 100,000 people.

Cody, Wyoming homicide rate: 0 per 100,000 people.

Newcastle, Wyoming homicide rate: 0 per 100,000 people.

It certainly sounds safer, in some respects, out in “The Wild West.”

As for me and mine, we keep our guns handy, and we’ll continue to primarily travel in a big, safe SUV with a massive “Deer Stopper” bumper, in which we carry both a trauma kit and an AED. We’ll take our chances, living out in the country, thanks. – J.W.R.

Tradecraft: Going Jason Bourne, on a Budget

Hollywood movies often show secret agents tossing cell phones out of car windows, and grabbing new ones to activate. In today’s world of almost universal surveillance and tracking, that is actually fairly good tradecraft. When operating in guerrilla warfare mode, a cell phone that is used more than a few times is a liability. So is a cell phone that is “turned off”, but that still has its battery installed. (They can still be tracked.)

In summary, here is some cellular phone tradecraft for times of genuinely deep drama:

1.) Don’t create a paper trail when buying clandestine phones. Pay cash for cell phones and don’t give your name. Preferably buy them in small stores without video surveillance.

2.) Activate phones only as needed.

3.) Never “recharge” the minutes on disposable cell phones. (This leaves a paper trail–at least leading to the place where you bought a recharge “minutes” card. And buying minutes via a phone call and credit card transaction leaves a huge paper trail.)

4.) Set a “phone talk time limit” for your group, depending on the then-current severity of the threat. Once you’ve reached the limit for each phone discard it. (But save the batteries, if they interchange.)

5.) Never program any cell phone numbers into your phone.

6.) Also carry a retained “cover” phone, on which only totally mundane (non-operational) calls are made. If you can make your operational phone disappear, then your cover phone will give you some plausible denial. (But you won’t be Teflon Coated, since the geographical movements of your cover phone can be correlated to operational events or calls from any of your clandestine phones.

7.) Discard phones discreetly, with the batteries removed. Alternatively, you can leave the battery in if you want to lay a trail to confuse those pursuing and you suspect that phone location is being tracked.. (You can mail the phone to a random address that is a thousand miles away. (Use a padded envelope and just drop it in a mail box.) Or you can leave it in a donation box for regional charity. (These charities usually send donated items to a sorting center.)

8.) Keep in mind that cell phone Subscriber Identity Module (SIM) chips are quite compact and can be moved from phone to phone.

Take a look at the history of how Ryan Fogle was bounced out of Russia. He used some very bad tradecraft. Learn from the mistakes of others.

One final tip: Reader Jeff H. mentioned that Tracfone now sell LG800G with 1,200 minutes loaded. The nice thing about these is that their minutes never expire. So this sort of phone would be a great phone to buy and just “tuck away for a rainy day.”

More All-American Makers

Several readers wrote to suggest some more American makers to add to my recently-posted lists:

Alvord-Polk Tool – Aircraft quality reamers. 

Brubaker Tool, Division of Dauphin Precision Tool, LLC  – Mills, taps and drills.

Ames Corporation is the parent company for several brand names that make all American-made tools. These include:

Miller Electric (a sister company to Hobart Brothers.) – Engine Drive welder/generators. Made in Appleton, Wisconsin.

Quincy Compressors – Air compressors. Made in Quincy, Illinois.

Hypertherm – Plasma cutters.

Torchmate – CNC plasma cutting machines. (Part of Lincoln Electric Cutting Systems.)
 
Ventamatic – MAXX brand fans. Made in Mineral Wells, Texas.

Liberty water pumps – Electric transfer pumps (for use with garden hoses), sump pumps, macerator pumps, etc.

Bark River Knife and Tool – Mostly hunting, utility and filleting knives. Made in Michigan’s U.P.

William Henry – Top quality pocket knives. Made in McMinnville, Oregon. (While they are a bit “spendy”, they source all of their parts from suppliers in the States. For instance, their high end Damascus steel is forged in Alabama.)

Queen Cutlery/Shatt & Morgan – Quality and made pocket, hunting and other knives. Made in Titusville, Pennsylvania.

Rada Cutlery – Utilitarian knives at very reasonable prices. (Making it easy to stock up).  They make kitchen knives and utensils, as well as stone bakeware.  Made in Iowa.

Reader E.M. wrote to lament that a lot of fishing tackle is now made in China, but that one American company he does recommend is X Factor Tackle.

And Reader J.K. wrote this pitiful news: “As a former employee of Stanley Black and Decker in Towson, Maryland, I’m sorry to say that a vast majority of DeWalt (and other SB&D brands) tools currently produced by the company are actually made in China. While the current generation on the market are wonderful and durable tools, they are not made here any more. The only American assembled tools I handled there as a test technician were engineering prototypes. About the only thing SB&D does in America now for its various branded power tools is production lot sample testing for life limits and safety regulation compliance. Unfortunately, as I understand it all manufacturing will probably end up in China as a part of their ‘Design to Value’ campaign.”

Pat’s Product Review: LTR Scope Mount For FAL/L1A1

I’ve had a fondness for the FAL and L1A1 rifles for many years, even before I carried one in Rhodesia, (now Zimbabwe) back in 1976. Even before that, I still remember the first FAL I ever saw. It was a select-fire version, hanging on the wall of my local gun shop outside of Chicago. I asked to handle it, and it was love at first sight and touch. There’s just “something” about this style of rifle that calls out to me – and thousands (or millions) of other gun owners, and for good reason, they are time-tested battle rifle, that at one time, served in approximately 90 militaries around the world, and it is still serving – a testament to the design and the .308 Win (7.62 NATO) round – when you want to reach out there and touch someone – the .308 can get the job done.
 
There are a few scope mounts out there for the FAL (generic term) of rifles these days, and I’ve tried a few – albeit, they are very expensive and a bit bulky and heavy. I like saving a few bucks whenever I can. B&T Enterprises produces a very lightweight and very affordable set-up for your FAL if you want to mount a scope or red/green dot scope on your rifle, without adding a lot of weight.
 
Brian, at B&T Enterprises, sent me an FAL top cover, with a light-weight aluminum scope mount attached to it. My first thought was, “this looks a little flimsy…” and as is often the case, first impressions are not always the right ones. I have a Century Arms “FrankenFAL” – meaning, it isn’t quite an FAL nor is it an L1A1, either – it has parts from both designs, one being metric, and one inch pattern. Many parts will interchange between the inch and metric guns, and Century Arms did a good job on my sample – however, they have had some bad guns get out there, that didn’t work. The good news is, Century stands behind their products and will make it right if you have a defective gun. Only thing is, Century doesn’t run many batches of these guns, they aren’t exactly easy to assemble and make work. So, when they do a run, they usually sell out very fast – be advised. You can find these guns on Gun Broker and Guns America, if you take the time to search their web sites.
 
My biggest complaint with the FAL is that, the rear sight isn’t the most stable – no matter what you do, many of them will have some play in them – and that is NOT a good thing, especially if you are looking at any long-range shots. What might be ok at a hundred yards, won’t work at 600-yards if that rear sight isn’t tight and it is moving around on you. So, a lot of folks want to mount a magnifying scope or a red/green dot scope of some sort on their FALs. Well, now you can do it, and do it for a lot less money, too.
 
B&T has several options for you. You can send them your FAL top cover, if it fits tightly on your FAL, and have them attach their mount to your cover. Or, you can request one of their covers with their mount attached, and fit it to you own rifle. Most of the time, this isn’t a problem, it doesn’t take much to fit a top cover so there isn’t any play in them. The sample B&T sent me, with their mount already
attached, fit my FAL tightly – perfect!
 
I had a couple cheap red/green dot scopes around, and I tried them on the top cover with the mount attached, and they all fit nicely – no problems at all. I also tried a 3×9 scope on the top cover, and it, too, fit nicely – no movement of the top cover when it was installed on the rifle. I don’t know that I would install a great big scope on the top cover with the mount, though. Seems like the red/green dot scopes or a light-weight magnifying scope would work best.
 
When I went out to the range to test the mount, I had one of the red/green dot scopes installed, and I had a good supply of Black Hills Ammunition .308  168-grain Match ammo, along with their .308 Hornady A-Max 168-grain load – which is for hunting purposes, and it is also match-grade in my book. From Buffalo Bore Ammunition I had their Sniper load which is a 175-grain JHP bullet, that is really screaming out of the barrel of your rifle. In all my testing, I fired about 100 rounds of ammo, through my FAL, with the red/green dot scope, and a cheap 3X9 scope. I removed the FALs top cover several times and replaced it, and there wasn’t any noticeable change in my zero – I was shooting at 100-yards. B&T Enterprises shows on their web site a video of similar testing and there wasn’t much change in the zero. This is a good thing!
 
Additionally, my German Shepherds knocked my FAL over at least a dozen times while the gun was sitting in a corner in my office, and the aluminum mount on the top cover didn’t come loose. I was impressed! B&T has the aluminum mount, attached to the steel top cover with some sort of adhesive, and as I said as the start, I was a bit concerned that, this mount might work itself loose under recoil. While I know that firing 100 rounds through my FAL isn’t a real torture test, I believe my German Shepherds gave it a good work out by knocking the gun onto the floor numerous times, and the scope that was mounted on the top cover never caused the mount to come loose in the least. In B&T’s own testing they said the mount should stay attached to the top cover from -40 temps up to 190-dgrees – and I see no reason to doubt this claim.
 
The mount only weighs 1.2 ounces, so you aren’t adding any appreciable weight to the FAL…and most red/green dot scopes don’t weight all that much, either. It’s when you add a magnifying scope, is where the added weight comes in. I think I would just leave a red/green dot scope on the mount myself. And, one nice thing is, if you want to take the dot scope off, you don’t have to actually take it off the top cover. (You can still see through the iron sights.) If it were me, I’d purchase another top cover – they are usually under ten bucks. Then take your top cover off, with the mount and scope attached, and put on your spare top cover – only takes a few seconds to do so, and you don’t have to worry about re-zeroing your optic.
 
I like saving money whenever I can, I’m not rich, not by any stretch of the imagination, and when I can save money, and find a quality product, that will do all I ask it to do, for less money than a more expensive product, I’m going to jump on it. If you send B&T your FAL top cover–one that fits tightly–they can install their aluminum mount for $69.99 and return it to you – plus shipping. And, if you want one of their mounts with a top cover that they supply, contact them for full information on prices – it depends on what type of FAL you have, as to what it will cost you. But I believe the most you’ll be paying is under $90 for their top cover with the mount installed.
 
The B&T Enterprises brings the FAL and it’s clones into the 21st Century with a top cover with a mount on there, especially if you want to add a red/green dot scope, and they are providing a top quality product, at a great price, too. A lot of work and testing went into this mount – and it isn’t as easy as you may think, to come up with the mount and a way of attaching it to the top cover. Check out their web site for complete information before ordering. I think that you’ll be impressed with the light-weight set-up for your FAL.  – SurvivalBlog Field Gear Editor Pat Cascio

T.M.’s Book Review: Plague, Quarantines and Geopolitics in the Ottoman Empire

Published by Edinburgh University Press, ©Birsen Bulmu, 2012
ISBN 978 0 7486 4659 3 (Hardback) $75 to $99 on Amazon.com
This book has 195 pages including comprehensive bibliography, endnotes for each chapter, and index.

Today, I ‘m reviewing Plague, Quarantines and Geopolitics in the Ottoman Empire . Once you get past the price, this book has a lot of good information for any prepper in any nation, not just Turkey. The author discusses various diseases and the reactions of theologians, physicians, politicians, and business leaders. They all have a different approach to the problems over the centuries.

Theologians quote holy book passages to support their side of the debate, while physicians use facts, science, and their experience. Business leaders oppose any measure that will hurt the bottom line, and politicians try to not offend everyone. These have not changed over the centuries.

Nowadays, epidemics quickly overrun available local medical services. Outside assistance usually saves the day. Bottled water disappears from store shelves. Politicians are besieged with angry demands to solve the problem.
Recent natural disasters have shown that those of us who are prepared are faced with an inconvenience, not an emergency. History has and will continue to repeat that fact.

The story in this book takes place from the 1400s to 1923, and is useful to all of us today trying to prepare for the next catastrophe. It took the Ottoman Empire authorities almost 400 years to build an immigrant quarantine site in their capital city of Constantinople (Istanbul today). During those centuries, epidemics came and went with regularity. The author explains the interactions of all players in telling why it took so long to do the obvious to fight diseases.

Muslims on both sides of the debate quoted the Quran. It is God’s Will that epidemics kill people. It is God’s Will if you live or die. It is God’s Will if people take steps to eradicate disease. The same arguments were seen in Europe between Christians. The difference was the Europeans took corrective action quicker.

Sanitation reforms finally began in 1838 at the urging of Europeans hoping to improve business prospects in the empire. Measures such as sewage disposal, clean water systems, immigrant quarantine, and better building codes aimed at preventing disease were begun after much debate and fierce resistance from the local citizens. The opponents were leery of government interference in their private lives and perceived religious transgressions.           

In any case, the Sultan had the final say and improvements were made. He took the advice of a Muslim reformer who said, “Take precaution and get ready by any means but do not put yourself in harm’s way: God created you and your actions.”

In other words, “Be Prepared.”

What can we learn from this history? What is important for readers of this web site is to know what happened before we had the sanitation and medical services we now enjoy. In a societal collapse, we will return to the Dark Ages. There will be no hospitals, sewage treatment plants, or clean city water systems.

When epidemics struck our ancestors, the first reaction was to flee the area, or to ‘bug out’. The disease usually hitched a ride and quickly spread. Europeans were the first to use quarantine as a defense. [JWR Adds: The practice of enforced health segregation actually dates back to at least Old Testament times, as mentioned in Leviticus 15:4-5.] Citizens were told to stay away from the marked houses, but do not leave the city. Keep the disease localized and allow it to die out. Other cities would not allow you to enter. The Ottomans finally embraced this practice in the early 1800s. The lesson is: you need a place to bug out to in your present location or nearby.

The bug out place needs clean water, sewage, and garbage disposal of some sort.

You need the proverbial beans, bullets, and Band-Aids. Information on all of these items is available in the archives of this web site.

This book is well written and organized in eight chronological chapters. The ten pages of comprehensive bibliography provide the interested reader with a wealth of further reading. Chapter endnotes and the index are also handy.

The author has skillfully blended the political, theological, scientific, and commercial debates of the subject into an easily read and understood treatment of the subject. All we have to do is learn from history.

Letter Re: Europe, Japan, or China: Who May Go Off the Economic Cliff First?

Jim,
I believe that the world is on the verge of a possible economic meltdown. I think that there is just too much debt (both governmental and private), not enough assets, and with a end result of the financial system breaking down with devastating consequences.
 
There are some common problems that the countries I will be looking at  all share. The first is high debt levels that cannot be repaid. However, the more important factor is negative demographics in these countries.  I think that national demographics do not receive enough consideration when analyzing a country’s economic potential. This is a mistake. Demographics are probably the single most important issue that should be examined. For example, a country could have massive natural resources available for both domestic use and export. But if this nation has a elderly and child ‘bulge’ with a very small working age population that doesn’t have the manpower to exploit these resources, then the resources will provide this country with very little economic benefit.
 
The title of this article asks a question. The honest truth is that I don’t know what the exact answer is (or when).  I think it will be Europe first, but Japan isn’t looking so hot either. China is a export-driven economy. Yes, they have some serious problems too, but I think they won’t truly take a hit until either Europe or Japan go off the rails first.
 
 
EUROPE
 
I think Europe’s economy collapses first because of something originally designed to help the area’s economy: the Euro Currency. Having a regional currency used by multiple European countries is a idea that has failed completely. When a nation controls it’s national currency it can devalue the currency if it’s economy slows down. A devalued currency will make that nation’s exports cheaper for its neighbors to buy. More exports leads to a higher level of economic activity and the end result will be a pick up in economic output overall (Please keep in mind that these are general economic theories, and they may not work every time in every country. If a nation has no exports then a currency devaluation does them no good, since the price of their imports will rise).
 
Since most of Europe uses the Euro Currency, and not their former national currencies (the Italian Lira, French Franc, Greek Drachma, etc) there can be no currency devaluation at the national level in a effort to goose exports and sell more of that nation’s cheaper goods to its neighbors. This is why European countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy have been mired in recession for the last couple of years. the ‘easy’ way for them to get their national economies back on track by boosting exports through devaluation is no longer a available option.
 
These countries now have to boost their economic output by much harder methods: internal labor market reform, (translation: working more for less) opening up protected industries to competition to make them more productive, decreasing governmental control of the economy, and other ideas that aren’t well liked by the locals.
 
Things are beginning to reach a breaking point in Europe. Yes, I have written in previous articles that I  thought the Euro Currency would be collapsing by now. And maybe I am wrong this time as well. I have underestimated the ability of European politicians to keep kicking the Euro Currency can down the road in their desire to keep things from imploding in Europe. Last year, I did not expect that European Central Bank President Draghi would make his infamous “Whatever it takes” comment and then unveil the ECB’s plan to buy unlimited amounts of European sovereign debt in order to keep bond yields low (BTW, one year after Draghi announced the ECB bond-buying plan, there is still today no formal plan, idea, document or even anything sketched out on a soggy cocktail napkin on how exactly the ECB would conduct it’s bond buying operation and how the plan would actually work).
 
The general Unemployment levels across Europe are  hitting all time highs of around 12%. Youth (18-to-25 years) unemployment in countries like Greece and Spain are around 50-to-60% and rising. Since more people are unemployed, this means economic activity is negative pretty much across Europe (Germany is still positive, but not by much) High unemployment and lower growth have two bad effects on a country’s finances. First, government has higher expenditures due to increased numbers of unemployed citizens needing government-provided social support. second, governments take in less tax revenue from both businesses and employed individuals. Higher government expenditures and lower incoming revenues can really raise government debt levels. This is why Greece needs another  multi billion Euro Bail-Out (it will be their third or fourth, I have lost track) The Italians may soon be asking for one also. And the Spanish are lining up for their second hand out. Even the French aren’t in such great economic shape anymore, and may soon be needing financial help.
 
The bottom line is that Europe is in trouble and there is no real way out of it until they kill the Euro Currency and go back to previous national currencies. The Euro Currency has become a noose that is slowly strangling European economic growth. Even if the Euro is killed tomorrow, Europe isn’t out of the bad economic woods yet. European demographics are ugly. Too many retirees, not enough workers, and not enough Europeans having kids to sustain national populations going into the future. All national Social Security type programs are basically legal ponzi schemes. There needs to be a steady source of incoming workers starting to pay into the system to replace the retiring workers who will soon be receiving payments from the system. Thanks to the postwar ‘Baby Boomer’ generation that is starting to retire, Social security programs will soon have more money flowing out of the system then into it. (This is just not a European problem, The USA will have to deal with the exact same issue)
 
High levels of unemployment, exploding debt levels, decreased government revenues, no national currency that can be devalued: add it all up and things are grim in Europe and getting worse by the day. Europe’s current downward spiral cannot continue. Something will break, and it will be soon.
 

 
JAPAN
 
Japan is the only country in the entire world with a demographic picture that makes Europe’s look easy to fix. Europe’s demographics are bad. Japan’s demographics  are horrible, ghastly, terrible, and hideous.  Europe has bad sovereign debt problems. Japan’s debt problem is simply impossible to fix. They will default someday, probably within the next two years. Japan is reaching the point of no return, and they have few options left.
 
What does the number ‘One Quadrillion’ represent? If you said “That is the Yen-denominated figure of all outstanding Japanese Government debt they have issued”, then you  just won a free drink on me. Congratulations!  Yeah, that number is accurate. Honestly I’m not sure exactly just how many zeros there are in a Quadrillion, 14? 16? I do know that if you started at ‘One’ and counted one number every second until you reached One Quadrillion, you would be counting for 32 million years. Does that sound like a number that Japan will ever be able to pay back?
 
For the last two years, a milestone has been  achieved in Japan, but nobody in Japan should be popping a bottle of Veuve Clicquot champagne in celebration yet because the milestone reached was not a good one. The milestone reached was that the sale of adult ‘Depends’ style diapers now outsells regular baby diapers. This is because Japan has the fastest growing elderly population in the entire industrialized world. Nobody comes close to the speed that which Japan is becoming old. Once again, demographics are key. If national demographics are bleak, there just isn’t much a country can do to fix it.  Japan is no exception. Unless Japan starts  making some huge gains in robotics starting tomorrow and starts developing ‘Cylons’ (I admit it, I’m a big ‘Battlestar Galactica’ fan), then going forward they just will not have enough workers replacing all the retiring elderly. Japan does control the value of the Yen, and they have been devaluing it (“Abenomics”) but they have a slight problem. Thanks to World War Two, they aren’t the most well liked country in Asia ( to put it mildly). They have few friends in the region who want to buy cheap exports from Japan. And thanks to some current nationalistic events regarding disputed territory involving China and Japan, Japan’s largest export customer, China, has stopped buying Japan’s goods. So even if the Yen gets devalued massively, it won’t help much regarding China’s  lack of desire to now  buy Japanese products and services.
 
Making a bunch of robotic worker ‘Cylons’ is about the only option Japan has left, since they allow almost no migration into the country. The economic picture is getting so bleak that they have had around ten (yes, 10) different Finance Ministers in the last five years. One FM actually committed suicide while he held the post. Another had to  resign and be checked into a mental hospital because the job was so stressful. If you have the time, look up on ‘Youtube’ some speeches by a billionaire Hedge Fund Manager named Kyle Bass.  He lays out Japan’s ugly economic future quite well.
 

 
CHINA
 
Just when you thought it would be safe to pick up Asia’s economic pieces once Japan explodes, here come the Chinese. Unlike Europe and Japan, the Chinese actually have a growing economy. But they have problems. Thanks to China’s ‘one child’ policy, they will soon be hitting some unique demographic issues. Because of the policy and a Asian preference for baby boys, there will soon be a generation of Chinese males without girlfriends or wives who will be caring for four grandparents all by themselves. Personally, I can barely manage my own life, so the idea of taking care of elderly relatives doesn’t have much appeal. Luckily, I am not facing this prospect, but a lot of males in China soon will be, and I wish them the best of luck cause they will need it.
 
Bad demographics aren’t the only issue mainland china faces. Due to them becoming the manufacturing center of the world, all that industrialization has produced massive environmental damage that will takes decades to heal. Their factories rely heavily on coal-fired power plants for energy.  Burning all that coal is another factor in China’s environmental problems and is also a issue regarding health problems.
 
There are economic problems as well. When the global economy tanked in 2008, the Chinese central government kept their economy growing by launching a multi trillion Yuan stimulus package. This backfired due to the fact that  many construction projects were launched that were completely unneeded. Think ‘bridges to nowhere’ on a massive scale. The Chinese built entire cities that stand vacant with very few residents. This overbuilding also produced rampant property speculation, resulting in local governments making bad real estate investments that are now badly  underwater. The speculation also led to large amounts of shady deals and outright criminal activity that has no positive benefit to the nation. The central government is now so concerned about bad debt levels at the local government level that they are conducting a massive audit of local finances to get handle on just how big this problem could be. My prediction is that what the central government learns from the audit of local book keeping will result in a whole bunch of local commissar type folks getting lined up against a wall in a police station basement and…. not walking out again, ever.
 
I know it makes for pretty depressing reading, but these are some of the things I see ahead for the global economy. Even the best-case outlook still results in  a lot of uncertainty that will soon be upon us. And the worst case means that we could be looking at: Regional conflict?, Economic meltdown? World war? It is something that we all need to keep a eye on. – CDWT

Letter Re: Advice on Shopping for CONEX Shipping Containers

Hello Mr. Rawles
, I enjoy your site. A good idea if you are in the market for a used CONEX shipping container would be to take a container inspection form that you could get online from numerous sources, American Bureau of Shipping to start. A proper inspection form could help you to assess your container. Thanks, – Ed B.

JWR Replies: Thanks for that advice. I just found this detailed inspection guide available online. I also found a more brief Army inspection procedure in FM 55-17.

Recipe of the Week:

KAF’s Lemon, Almond, and Date Balls (or Bars)

1 cup Almonds
1 tsp vanilla extract
1 1/2 cups dates, diced up
1 whole diced up lemon with the zest and juice
1 cup unsweetened coconut flakes
2 tsp. amber agave nectar

Pulse all together in food processor or in a heavy duty blender, so it’s all chopped but still slightly chunky and sticky, then dump the prepared mixture into a square pan and pat down with spoon. Refrigerate, and when thoroughly cold, cut into small bars, or, you can roll this sticky mixture into small serving candy balls and roll them in more unsweetened coconut flakes to coat them, and wrap them individually to go.

Healthy. Yum!

Useful Recipe and Cooking Links:

Fruit Bar and Square Recipe

Summer Seasonal Recipes

Do you have a favorite recipe that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers? Please send it via e-mail. Thanks!

Economics and Investing:

Detroit Bankruptcy a “Game-Changing Event,” Meredith Whitney Says

Square Goes Bent on Bias: Mobile Payment Company Says No to Guns

G.G. flagged this:Bond Losses at Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion. The article begins: “The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has surged 66% over the past three months. And bond investors, especially those with jumbo-sized positions, are getting hammered. How much money has the Federal Reserve lost?”

Also from G.G.: US regulators ‘find evidence’ of banks fixing derivative rates

Items from The Economatrix:

Marc Faber On Central Banker Actions: “Insane People Don’t Realize They’re Insane”

The When: “The Economic Collapse Cannot Be Predicted By Looking at Stock Market Charts or Other Standard Economic Indicators”

The Most Important Number In The Entire U.S. Economy

The Secret Sauce in the July Jobs Report