Economics and Investing:

Eric Sprott talks precious metals on Squawk Box. Toward the end, he is asked about physical preparedness. Eric says: “Prudence is very much warranted.” (Thanks to SurvivalBlog’s G.G. for the link.)

Faber Warns “Everything Will Collapse”

G.G. sent this: USPS Prepares for Second Default in Two Months

Bram suggested some good monetary analysis by Charles Hugh Smith: Why QE Won’t Create Inflation Quite as Expected

Items from The Economatrix:

The Truth About The Fiscal Cliff

New Home Sales Dip, But Prices Hit 5-Year High

Dr. Gary North:  Five Mainstream Economists Sound A Warning

Europe Is Now In A Completely Unmanageable Situation

Odds ‘n Sods:

Download, print, fire: gun rights initiative harnesses 3D technology

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Alternatives To A Bugout Location – What You Should Consider

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The Most Often Forgotten Survival Preparations

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G.K. in western Washington mentioned yet another reason to avoid social media sites.

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Here are links to a couple of my recent radio interviews: EMPAct Radio and Time Monk Radio. (The latter is more than two hours long.)

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

I am the good shepherd: the good shepherd giveth his life for the sheep.
But he that is an hireling, and not the shepherd, whose own the sheep are not, seeth the wolf coming, and leaveth the sheep, and fleeth: and the wolf catcheth them, and scattereth the sheep.
The hireling fleeth, because he is an hireling, and careth not for the sheep.
I am the good shepherd, and know my [sheep], and am known of mine.
As the Father knoweth me, even so know I the Father: and I lay down my life for the sheep.
And other sheep I have, which are not of this fold: them also I must bring, and they shall hear my voice; and there shall be one fold, [and] one shepherd.
Therefore doth my Father love me, because I lay down my life, that I might take it again.
No man taketh it from me, but I lay it down of myself. I have power to lay it down, and I have power to take it again. This commandment have I received of my Father.” – John 10:11-18 (KJV)

Notes from JWR:

This is the birthday of Austrian School economist Ludwig von Mises (1881 – 1973.) The many resources at the Ludwig von Mises Institute web site are worth exploring.

—

Today we present another entry for Round 42 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. and G.) A $200 gift certificate, donated by Shelf Reliance.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. B.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and E.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

The queue for Round 42 is full but Round 43 begins on October 1st, so please start writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Update on the Release of “Founders”






This is for those who have asked for more details on the release of my latest novel “Founders”, particularly about the audio book and ebook:

The audio book edition of “Founders” was narrated by Phil Gigante. He is a former Shakespearean actor and an Audie award-winner with a great voice.

The cover artwork for Founders was done by Tony Mauro Jr., who is best known for his movie posters. He did a fantastic job of capturing the atmosphere of Ken & Terry Layton’s trek.

 


Sources for “Founders” – Hardback, eBook and Audio Book Formats

Hardcover Book Sellers:
Amazon.com
BAMM
Barnes & Noble
Indie Bound
Powell’s
 Safecastle
Boomerang (Australia)
Amazon.de (Germany)
Amazon.co.uk (UK)

eBook Sellers:
Kindle (Amazon)
Nook
iBook (iPods and iPhones)
Sony Reader Store (ePub)

Audio Book Sellers:
Amazon.com
Audible.com
AudioEditions.com
IndieBound
iTunes Store
Amazon.de (Germany)
Amazon.co.uk (UK)


 

The Likelihood of Man-Made Disaster, by William Crosby Prentice

Introduction, Scale

I think you will agree that you will get the highest returns from your preparation investments when you make those decisions based on the relative likelihood of a range of SHTF scenarios.  Unfortunately, the probability of many SHTF situations is very hard to determine, and will end up being a judgment call.  However, there is some information out there on the likelihood of certain events that qualify as SHTF.  This information allows us to at least calibrate our judgment calls on the likelihood of certain events, enabling us to refine our gut feelings. In doing so, we will look at a wide range of potential events, which would run the gamut of being the victim of a crime to the potential for a worldwide astrophysical cataclysm.  The scale of a potential SHTF event obviously has an impact on the probability, and in ways that might not be intuitively obvious, but will at least give us some sort of basis for a planning-level judgment. 

Personal SHTF Events
As shown in Table 1, based on crime statistics from calendar 2010, the probability of your being the victim of any crime is about 3.3%, and the probability of becoming a victim of a violent crime is about 0.4%.  On average, in the USA, your chances of being murdered is less than 5 thousandths of a percent.

Table 1 – US Crime Rates – 2010

 

Per 100,000

Percent

Total Crime

3,345.5

3.3%

Violent Crime

403.6

0.4%

Property Crime

2,941.9

2.9%

Murder

4.8

0.005%

Rape

27.5

0.03%

Robbery

119.1

0.1%

Assault

252.3

0.3%

Burglary

699.6

0.7%

Larceny-Theft

2,003.5

2.0%

Vehicle Theft

238.8

0.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Compare this to other personal SHTF events, shown in Table 2.  Note you are a little over four times more likely to become a crime victim than you are to die from any cause in any given year.  You are more likely to die of an accident than you are to be raped and/or murdered.   If you go to Yellowstone, you are five times more likely to be attacked by a bear than you are to be hit by lightning while you are there.

Table 2 – Estimated Rates of Other Personal SHTF Events

 

Per 100,000

Percent

US Deaths, all Causes – CDC

798.7

0.8%

Heart Disease – CDC

192.9

0.2%

Accidental Death – CDC

38.2

0.04%

Being in Car Accident

1,948.1

1.9%

Struck by Lightning

0.10

0.0001%

Yellowstone Bear Attack

0.52

0.0005%

Police Misconduct – Total Pop

2.22

0.002%

Police Misconduct – Adult Pop

2.92

0.003%

Incidence per 100K LEO

978

0.9%

Active Shooter

0.01

0%

Military Action, Iraq  KIA

416.0

0.04%

 

 

 

 

I took some flak for my last essay in SurvivalBlog for suggesting that Unlawful LEO Activity, or Police Misconduct, was something to actively consider as a threat.  First of all, I am biased in favor of law enforcement in nearly all respects – I have nothing to prove to anyone in that regard.  That said, the probability of your being involved in an event in which you become an alleged victim of police misconduct is about one-half of the probability of your being murdered, based on statistics compiled by the Cato Institute.  If you are a law enforcement officer, the probability of your being involved in an incident in which police misconduct is alleged against you is a less than one percent.

Keep in mind that these are averages and for the USA only, and rates will vary dramatically by geographic locations, and would also be highly dependent upon behavior and the situations in effect at the time.  Even though overall crimes rates have been falling, and fell in 2010 as compared to 2009, the crime rates, including violent crime, in those cities with the highest rates, actually increased, resulting in a substantial and increasing variability by location. For instance, it was reported this summer that the murder rate in Chicago – at about 19 per 100,000 population (or 15/100,000 depending on the source) – is presently four times that of New York City and twice that of Los Angeles.  Depending on where you are, what time it is, and what you are doing, the probability of your becoming a murder victim in Chicago might even be higher than that.

Local variations are significant.  In 2010, the average murder rate in Los Angeles County was 6.28 per 100,000 population, about 30% more than the average for the nation as a whole.  Within Los Angeles County, the murder rate for Compton was 25.92, and the murder rate in Inglewood was 18.24.  By contrast, the murder rate in San Jose, in the heart of Silicon Valley, was 1.4, and that for the New Orleans area was 20.

That might seem pretty high, but the murder rate in Caracas, Venezuela recently was reported to be as high as 200 per 100,000 population, and apparently 90 percent of those murders go unsolved.  The murder rate in Honduras is over 90, and that of Mexico overall is only 22.  However, the murder rate in the Mexican state of Chihuahua is 111, and that of Ciudad Juarez, in Chihuahua across the Rio Grande from El Paso, was reported to be over 220 in 2010.

Black Swan Natural Disasters
In a very useful 2011 document, the firm of Ernst & Young defined a Black Swan Event as being one that occurs unexpectedly and unpredictably, develops rapidly and lasts for a period of up to several months, are catastrophic in scale and broad in scope, present hazards beyond immediate financial risks (loss of life, health, environmental damage), involve significant asset damage/losses, and require corporate/government resources to resolve.  The document lists 21 such events that have happened in the past 40 years, including such events as Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Andrew, the Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster, the Earthquakes in Haiti and Sichuan, China, and the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks.  In going through the literature, I believe that I can come up with another 20+ instances of similar magnitude during the same period, which means that a Black Swan Event is likely to occur somewhere in the world at least once a year. 

The question from your perspective is how likely such an event is to strike in your area, such that it effects you.  That is a question that the insurance industry has been attempting to resolve for many years.  We know that hurricanes like to hang out in the Caribbean, the Southeast United States and along Atlantic Coast.  We know we are overdue for a large earthquake in California.  The chances of the Big One happening in any given year is above 0% but less than 100%, and depending on what you read the probability is either increasing or decreasing every year that it does not happen.

For planning purposes, maybe we should assign a probability of 3% to such an event.  That would be about the same probability as your becoming the victim of a crime of any sort in any given year.  Or would you judge that the likelihood of a Black Swan Natural Disaster that impacts you would be less than 1%, or about the same as the probability of dying from any cause according to the CDC?  Or is it in between, at about 2%, which is the approximate the probability of your being in a traffic accident during any year?

Other Black Swans
Black Swan events can include things such as the “financial meltdown” in 2009.  There are many people who predict that the fiscal and monetary policies being followed by the Federal Reserve, the US Government, and many state governments, made a further and more serious financial crisis a virtual certainty within the next five years. 

I have read some reports that state that the past four years have actually been worse, by certain measures, than the Great Depression.  What if it got worse suddenly?  That could certainly happen, with the wrong combination of tax, fiscal and monetary policy being imposed on our economy.  Would the resulting economic and societal stress, combined with gradual breakdown of infrastructure and government services (roads, signals, water/sewer, police, fire, schools) result in our gradual slide into failed state status?  Would that result in the environment becoming as dangerous to us as Mexico is now, or Chihuahua State, or Ciudad Juarez?  This seems more likely to me than the comet strike, Planet X or zombie epidemic scenario. 

A Wedge of Swans
Black Swans, at least by the Ernst & Young definition, are not TEOTWAWKI events, since we have had them before, and the world still exists, in almost the way we knew it.  However, swans are gregarious birds, and a group of swans can be called a flock, a bevy, a wedge or a team.  I believe that a wedge of Black Swan Events could amount to a TEOTWAWKI event, and that such a combination of blows could be a more likely scenario than some of the others we hear discussed. 

One scenario that I don’t like thinking about would begin with a financially weakened and war-weary United States teetering on the brink of a further financial disaster that had been building for years.  We are then suddenly hit with one or more of the following: a 9/11 scale terrorist attack, a major epidemic, and/or several natural disasters.  If you then throw in a dramatic increase in civil unrest bordering on insurgency, which in turn leads to US Government actions that are seen as unlawful by a significant portion of the population, you have a believable, non-sci-fi, TEOTWAWKI scenario. 

What is the probability of such a combination of events?  In rooting around on the Internet, I find that there is a fairly narrow range of personal predictions from various sources of this type of scenario happening: from 1% to 20% within three to five years.  If this is true, at even the low end of the range of predictions, then we should be just as worried about this as we are about being in a traffic accident, being a victim of a crime, or dying from heart disease.

I should add that I recently had a discussion with someone that I respect who argued that there might be several unique Swan Wedge Combos that have an overall beneficial impact on at least part of the population.  For instance, what if the US was teetering on the brink of a financial disaster, and was suddenly faced with a substantial part of the country that wanted to go its own way – secession – and a war-weary population prevented a Civil War type re-conquest of the seceding states or regions?  It is possible that the seceding areas would be established as lightly governed havens for business and technological innovation, a Libertarian utopia.  Where can we sign up for that?

Black Swan Impacts on the Rates
If we slide into failed state status because of renewed financial crises, or we suffer a Swan Wedge Combo, the way that affects our survivability will manifest itself through dramatic increases in the probabilities of various items shown in Tables 1 and 2 above (even bear attacks).  It is useful to think in terms of everything breaking down to where we are suddenly shoved into Caracas-level risks.

If the murder rate is, on average, increased to about 200 from about 5 (40 times), you might also expect that your chances of dying, from any cause, to increase from about 800 to about 32,000.  In other words, your probability of dying in any given year from any cause would go from less than one percent to about 32 percent – the odds are one in three that you would die. If that were to be the average probability – the middle of the bell curve – think what the ends of the curve would look like: on the one end you would have conditions that are much closer to what we know as normal, on the other you would have absolute slaughter house conditions.

The job of those who are preparing is to push their own situation, and that of their loved ones, towards the “more normal” side of the curve.  If you are preparing yourself physically and financially, then you have a much better chance.

Cataclysms, TEOTWAWKI
The scenarios that are the subject of major motion picture franchises, and memorable novels, belong in this category.  Red Dawn foreign invasions, Terminator singularity and machine-attacks-mankind events, epidemic aftermaths such as The Omega Man and I Am Legend, and others.  The scenarios would include asteroid or comet strikes, diseases, apocalyptic wars, electro-magnetic pulse events (natural or manmade), and other disasters.  In 1984 and Atlas Shrugged, both the movies and the books, the villain is the slow relentless grind of totalitarian government.  What are the odds?  I don’t know, but they are certainly greater than 0% – for one example you can check out NASA’s risk assessments for potential Earth impact events.

Who Cares About the Odds?
Life is full of peril, and it is essential that persons committed to individual responsibility and self-reliance be prepared.  It begins with the things that are most likely to happen to you and your loved ones, and grows out from there. 

If you have made the commitment to defend yourself and your family from crime and possible civil unrest, if you alter your lifestyle to avoid the most common objective hazards such as disease and geographically-focused dangers/crimes, if you take measures to ensure you can survive for a substantial period of time during the most likely Black Swan Events (hurricane, floods, earthquakes), then you are already better prepared than the vast majority of people. 

Progressing from that state of readiness to being able to handle various conceivable Swan Wedge Combos is probably just a matter of scale, and of organization into a community of like-minded souls.  If you have done that, and are lucky, then you will be a survivor if this happens. 

Moving from that stage to a stage of being able to handle a true global cataclysm is probably not a very useful planning task.  If you are lucky enough to survive whatever the opening disaster is in the TEOTWAWKI scenario, and you are already pretty well prepared for a potential Swan Wedge Combo, then you are also probably as well of as you could be for the aftermath.  Good luck to you.

The Author
Despite the state’s appalling politics, the author lives peacefully in California.  He is engaged in the business of financing energy and technology firms, and is the acting CEO of a private military contracting firm.  He is also devoted to the personal pursuits of rock climbing, martial arts, and hunting.  Prentice is also the author of Feral, a novel with significant Libertarian overtones, and the short story Purgatory.

References and Suggested Further Reading:

Disaster Center, US Crime Rates 1960 – 2010 (http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm)

Center for Disease Control (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr60/nvsr60_04.pdf)

http://www.goinsurancerates.com/auto-insurance/11-statistics-and-facts-thatll-stop-you-from-driving-uninsured

National Weather Service (http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/medical.htm)

“Yellowstone Bear Attack: What Are The Odds?” by David Knowles

Statistics from Cato Institute’s National Police Misconduct Reporting Project, 2010 Annual Report (http://www.policemisconduct.net/statistics/2010-annual-report/), adjusted to show the “rate” per 100,000 population using 308mm total population and 234mm adult population.  Note that the Cato report shows a total of 4,861 reports of police misconduct, involving 6,613 sworn police officers, and a total of 6,826 alleged victims, out of which there were only 247 fatalities.  The rate of misconduct of 978 is per 100,000 police officers, whereas the two figures above that are the incidence for the population as a whole, in the first case for the average 2010 US population of 308mm, and the second figure for the adult population only.

Used data from NYPD Analysis of active shooters from 1966 through 2010, total of 202 cases in the 44 year period, averaging 3.0 dead and 3.6 wounded per instance, for total casualties to active shooters of 1,333 over the period, during which there was an average population of 252.3mm.

Based on battlefield casualties in Iraq through January, 2007 (http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA518921), based on per 100,000 man-years of battlefield exposure; compares to a KIA rate of 2,231 per 100,000 for Vietnam.

Huffington Post, 16-Jun-12, updated 16-Aug-12 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/16/chicago-homicide-rate-wor_n_1602692.html)

http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/The-Deadliest-Global-City-163874546.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_cities_by_crime_rate

https://www.policymap.com/city-crime-rates/los-angeles-crime-statistics/index.html

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/tables/table-6

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/23/world/americas/23venez.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate

http://www.citymayors.com/security/latin-american-murder-cities.html

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CCIQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ey.com%2FPublication%2FvwLUAssets%2FPrinciples_and_protocols_for_responding_to_unexpected_catastrophic-events%2F%24FILE%2FBlack%2520swan_FINAL.pdf&ei=z2NaUOCpIYfm2QXQ04H4Ag&usg=AFQjCNFuTasXVKu0w95aB_dlWFFM8Tj5jg

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

Letter Re: You Don’t Need To Be A Conservative To Be Prepared

Sir:
Anyone who spends any amount of time on survivalist and preparedness oriented forums knows that a certain political worldview is the most commonly encountered perspective, particularly with respect to economic concerns. Particularly in the literary niche that is survivalist/preparedness fiction, the protagonist is often identified as a conservative critic of Keynesian economic thought and favors the gold standard. Very often the plot presupposes a very right-wing political orientation. Matthew Bracken (Enemies Foreign and Domestic), Thomas Sherry (Deep Winter, Shatter), Glen Tate (299 Days), and even James Wesley Rawles (Patriots) all share to some degree this worldview. Some authors even make efforts to settle scores with Democrats and liberals. I enjoyed all those books, and authors certainly have the right to write whatever they want. However, fiction serves a valuable role in outreach and education (not to mention entertainment!), and I think that it may useful to remember that being a card carrying member of the political right is not a requirement to be a survivalist. There is nothing inherently political about wanting to guarantee the health and safety of your family. You don’t need to be a conservative in the Austrian school of economics to want to be prepared.

Government Might Not Help You

Both the Occupy Wall Street and Tea Party protest movements share a common jaundiced eye toward the motives of government. Whether the criticism comes from the right or the left, it is not unreasonable to worry that the most powerful people in this country, or the world, don’t necessarily have your best interests in mind.

There seems to be a perception that rich bankers and the political elite all seem to eventually hold some fraction of their wealth in precious minerals and mountain retreats. Perhaps they have peeled back the curtain and have seen the fragility of modern civilization. Or perhaps it is just prudent for the super wealthy to take some small percent of their vast wealth and put it to work as a hedge against the most extreme of dangers. After all, gold is pretty and so are the mountains of Montana and New Zealand. Either way, whether through special insight or just good planning, many powerful people are preparing for something. That just makes it all the more likely that if a true danger does appear, they have the ability to escape. That mere possibility of escape means that if comes time to navigate through rough seas, the normal captains at the helm may already be lowering their private life rafts.

Even If “They” Have Every Intention Of Preventing Collapse, They May Miscalculate

You don’t even need to be a cynic about government to want to prepare for trouble. Maybe the power brokers and elites that run the country do have the best interest of you in mind. After all, collapse and disorder are not the ideal methods to accumulating wealth and power. It would be far better to own a small slice of an enormous pie than control a larger slice of a shrinking post-collapse society. Even if the people who man the levers of the economy really are evil geniuses, it is probably in their best interest to keep the entire system perpetuating. But even evil geniuses are people, and people make mistakes.

Many survivalists and authors of survivalists worry about the fiat money system and favor the gold or silver standard. It is entirely plausible that the economic growth and innovation of the last 75 years is attributable to having abandoned the gold standard to the dustbin of history. Maybe fiat money and central banking is a bit like what Churchill said about democracy, it could be the worst form of economic underpinnings except for all those others that have been tried. Certainly inflation, disinflation, and jolting business cycles were well known when the world ran on specie.

The 2008/2009 banking crisis and resulting government intervention was a scary event. Yet some thousand plus days later the wheels of trade are again more or less functional. Nobody should ever wish for a collapse, even if it like the grasshopper, you may think eventually those unprepared are due a comeuppance. If Bernanke was able to patch things together and pull off a last second save of modern civilization, he should be hailed as a hero, not pilloried. However, the fact that a last second save was even necessary should give you pause.

Even if you favor central banking, government backing of the savings and loans industry, and quantitative easement, the fact that it is a human at the lever that makes sure these functions help the economy should give you pause. The most powerful could be evil geniuses plotting every move, or perhaps even scarier, they are just people. Keynes – whose economic ideas are so often the target of the right and many survivalists – was fearful of the impact that “animal spirits” could have on the economy. The spontaneous urge to action unchecked by quantitative benefits or probabilities will always be a core potential risk in society. Even those who politically view government as having an important role in curbing the animal spirits should not ignore the very threats that modern Keynesians argue justify the Federal Reserve.

Other Concerns

Certainly the left offers other justifications for preparedness. Many on the left are concerned about the environment and sustainable ecology. And of course, plagues, nuclear terrorism, meteors, super volcanoes, various peak theories, earthquakes, and weather crises are all apolitical. – Anonymous

Economics and Investing:

Deleveraging from one bubble to another – Since the peak in 2008 $1.3 trillion in US household debt is gone but another bubble is brewing hidden under the rubble of the busted housing market.

Precious metals market analyst Ted Butler: Transparency

Impending Catastrophe: Spain Has Entered A Full-Scale Collapse And Created A Tremendous Amount of Instability Which Could Trigger An Imminent Lehman-Like Event And A Rerun of The Great Panic of 2008

B.B. sent this: Estimate of California’s real debt upped from $28 billion to… $335 billion

In Forbes: Run On The Banks Would Make Fiscal Cliff Look Like A Speed Bump

Items from The Economatrix:

US Bank Run Imminent As FDIC Expanded Deposit Insurance Ends December 31st

Spain Recoils As Its Hungry Forage Trash Bins For Food

Fed Virtually Funding The Entire US Deficit

Greece Is About To Default Again

Odds ‘n Sods:

SurvivalBlog’s Editor At Large Michael Z. Williamson spotted this: Mapping the World’s Population by Latitude, Longitude. Mike’s comment: “An interesting pair of charts, but it is skewed a bit by China and India.”

   o o o

Reader R.B.S. sent us this: San Francisco considers 220-square-foot micro-apartments

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Reader W.C.P. forwarded a link to a diatribe by the West Point Academy’s Director of Terrorism Studies (an Assistant Professor at the Department of Social Sciences) in which he parrots the SPLC‘s Party Line and tars survivalists with a very broad brush, equating us with skinheads, the KKK, and neo-Nazis: Identifying Three Trends in Far Right Violence in the United States. He claims that right-wing extremism is in part characterized by “ideological associations promoting anti-taxation, gun rights, and a ‘survivalist’ lifestyle…”  and “strong convictions regarding the corrupted and tyrannical nature of the federal government and its related natural tendency to intrude on individuals’ civilian lives and constitutional rights…” [JWR’s Comment: <Sarcasm On>Those radical Americans who talk about Constitutional rights. They must all be subversives. <Sarcasm Off>]

   o o o

I noticed that the second episode of the post-power grid collapse drama television series Revolution is now available at the NBC web site, and on Hulu.com. In just the first 15 minutes of it there was a bushel basket full of familiar memes from The Postman and The Hunger Games. In the second episode the plot has thickened, but I still consider the show sub-par, at least alongside a show like Jericho.

   o o o

F.G. sent word of a bad legal precedent: Florida: Court Approves Detaining Motorists at Toll Booth for “large bills”

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The folks at Safecastle are wrapping up their last maximum Mountain House sale of the year. They are offering 33% discounts on many of the most popular #10-can entrees through September 30 only, and 25% discounts on everything else. Then, after September 30th, they will still offer 25%-off all the Mountain House can varieties through October 7th. They also offer additional member incentives to Safecastle Royal club members.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

Praise ye the LORD. Praise the LORD, O my soul.
While I live will I praise the LORD: I will sing praises unto my God while I have any being.
Put not your trust in princes, [nor] in the son of man, in whom [there is] no help.
His breath goeth forth, he returneth to his earth; in that very day his thoughts perish.
Happy [is he] that [hath] the God of Jacob for his help, whose hope [is] in the LORD his God:
Which made heaven, and earth, the sea, and all that therein [is]: which keepeth truth for ever:
Which executeth judgment for the oppressed: which giveth food to the hungry. The LORD looseth the prisoners:
The LORD openeth [the eyes of] the blind: the LORD raiseth them that are bowed down: the LORD loveth the righteous:
The LORD preserveth the strangers; he relieveth the fatherless and widow: but the way of the wicked he turneth upside down.
The LORD shall reign for ever, [even] thy God, O Zion, unto all generations. Praise ye the LORD. – Psalm 146 (KJV)

Notes from JWR:

A reminder that there will be a Sustainable Preparedness Expo this Sunday in Spokane, Washington (September 30, 2012), from 10 AM to 6 PM. The keynote speaker will be Congressman Bartlett, Ph.D., talking about EMP. Bartlett is the only outspokenly survivalist member of congress and is a strong proponent of EMP preparedness. One of our advertisers (Pantry Paratus) will have a booth there as will one of our writing contest sponsors, Naturally Cozy. The latter will have a few autographed copies of my latest novel (“Founders”) available for sale. I included some very special bookmarks as well as some SurvivalBlog magnets for each, as bonuses. If you attend, please stop by and say hello at both of these booths.

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Today we present another two entries for Round 42 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. and G.) A $200 gift certificate, donated by Shelf Reliance.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. B.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and E.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

The queue for Round 42 is full but Round 43 begins on October 1st, so please start writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Severe Weather Vigilance, by Shawn J.

One recent evening I was listening to the local news as they reported on a Tornado outbreak, in one of the Eastern States. The tornado(s) had occurred at night and the news anchors were horrified that the people would not know that anything was happening until it was all over.

Severe weather can occur almost everywhere on our planet. Within the last 10 years I have heard reports of Tornados inside of New York City, London, England, and in India. Tornados and Severe Thunderstorms can occur during the day but also at night.

Tornadoes vary in size from yards wide to mile wide machines of death. Tornadoes can pack wind speeds of tens to several hundred miles per hour. Tornadoes can pick up semi tractor trailers and toss them hundreds of yards, they can literally scour asphalt off of roadways.

Severe Thunderstorms can produce winds in excess of 60 miles per hour, hail larger than the size of  a quarter, and dangerous lightning. Severe Thunderstorms will sometimes produce straight line winds that can tip over semi tractor trailers. Severe Thunderstorms can also produce a microburst. A microburst is a rapidly sinking column of air from a Thunderstorm, it can sink at several miles per hour to hundreds of miles per hour. Microbursts can topple full grown trees, flatten houses, etc.

I have lived in what is called Tornado Alley for all but 18 months of my 40 plus years (An all expense paid vacation to Bosnia, courtesy of Uncle Sam). I am in no way a weather expert. I offer the following information hoping that it will be of use to you.

During the months of Late March thru the middle of June I am hyper-vigilant when it comes to the weather. I will detail my routine below

a Find a local news station that you can listen to their weather forecast and at least feel halfway comfortable that it is accurate. You have some stations that sensationalize everything about the weather. These clowns will break into the regular programming just because the sky is getting dark. On the other hand you have the stations that are staffed by kids fresh out of school who are inexperienced and are only going off of a script.

By listening to the different stations available to you, you will be able to figure out who you can trust and who the clowns are.
Once you have an idea, listen to the station regularly. Listen to the 5-day forecast to see when storms are predicted for your area. This is your early warning system, think of the local weather guys as the cans on the string with the rocks in them, to let you know something is out there.
Also one note here when they say that there is a 40% chance of rain or storms, they mean 40% of the listening area for that station could expect to see rain or storms.


Refer to the web site of the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma.  These guys know their business. They can’t predict where and when something will happen but they can give you an area and a day that they think it is going to happen.

The first thing about this site is they speak in weather terms so you will have to find a way to interpret them. The Weather.com  and NOAA web sites sites have some good glossaries of weather terms.

When you first come onto the page look at the map of the U.S. they will encircle an area and give the probability for severe weather (slight, moderate, high). The “Conv. Outlooks” (Convective Outlooks) give you a synopsis of what they think is going to happen. You will need your weather-speak interpreter here. Watches obviously show you the watches. MD’s are Mesoscale Discussions. This is where the forecasters at the SPC give their impressions on what is now happening in a given area. If you look on the map you will see the area circled in red. Usually if an area is circled, it is about ready to go under a watch of some type.

This site is one that you have to play with and get used to and also do some research on weather-speak. But it can be invaluable with the information that you can get.
Another note here, if these guys start getting fidgety, then bad things are getting ready to go down. This is when they issue Particularly Dangerous Situations alerts.

I think back to the News Anchor and her bleating, “What do those people do when it is dark or at night and they are asleep?”  My first thought was, “Well duh! You use your weather radio”.

Special receivers have been manufactured to tune into certain frequencies and would then activate the external speaker when a special tone was played, then the message was broadcast. The problem with this was that everyone was alerted for hazards that were 20-40 miles away and had little chance of impacting you. Today weather radios are much different. They use SAME (Specific Area Message Encoding) technology and can alert you for hazards in the area or you can program in county codes to alert you to threats specific to the county(s) that you program. Weather radios are usually tested every Wednesday unless severe weather is in the area.

When programming you would think that you would want to program for just your county so that you would not have to hear what is going on two counties over. I actually do the opposite, I program not only the county that I live in but all of the surrounding counties. Usually you have the ability to program 10 county codes.

If I am asleep at night and my weather radio goes off for a Tornado Warning for the county to my west I can then get up and see what I need to do by listening to either TV or Storm spotters. As an aside here, have a scanner with your local storm spotter frequency. They will be able to tell you when stuff is happening and may see that Tornado forming that the weather guys are not seeing yet on radar. If you do not know the local storm spotting frequency try the local Amateur radio frequencies. If all else fails local fire or law enforcement frequencies may give you information.

By programming in the surrounding counties I have more time to wake up and to decide do we go to the shelter, or other courses of action. If you only have just your county programmed in, you may only get the warning when the thing is coming down on top of you.
Usually these radios cost between $30 to $100. The radio also broadcasts current NOAA conditions, forecasts, hazardous weather outlooks for most areas. 

So as I am writing this it almost has a “defense in depth” process feeling.

  • Use your local news stations weather as an early warning.
  • Use the Storm Prediction Center as a tool to see what the actual hazards are.
  • Use your Weather Radio as a trip wire to warn you that the wolf is at the door.
  • Listening to your local storm spotters, they can give you up to the minute information on what is currently happening in your area.

Next, After the Schumer has hit the fan and there is no Internet, NOAA, or Uncle Sugar.
You will need to setup your own off grid weather station. I purchased something similar to this one, several years ago. These instruments give you rudimentary Temperature, Humidity, and Barometric pressure. Barometric pressure decreasing would increase the likelihood of rain or a storm.
Or, Thermometers are pretty cheap and can be obtained at dollar stores. Here is a set of plans to build a barometer.
Here are instructions for a Hygrometer. 

Also, you will have to do your own observations of the conditions around you. As you will not have your weather person to tell you about the weather.

Clouds:  
Here is a link to a web site that describes various cloud types. In summary:

  • Cirrus Clouds indicate that there could be rain within 36 hours.
  • Cumulus Towers indicate possible rain later in the day. Watch cumulus towers if they continue to build they will become Cumulonimbus Clouds.
  • Cumulonimbus Clouds – (Thunder Heads, Anvil Clouds) Severe weather makers.
  • Wall Cloud – Usually under a Cumulonimbus cloud. This is a cloud that is part of the cloud structure but is lower than the surrounding cloud structure. A wall cloud will rotate, and usually produce tornados.
  • Mammatus Clouds – Usually seen from under the storm itself, are formed by sinking air as the thunderstorm is dissipating.

 Plants:

  • Oak or Maple leaves will curl in high humidity, which usually precedes Rain
  • Pine cone scales remain closed in high humidity, but will open in dry air.
  • Plants will release their waste in low pressure, generating a compost type smell indicating approaching rain.

Wind:

  • Easterly winds usually indicate an approaching storm, Westerly winds usually do not.
  • Strong winds can indicate pressure differences which can signal an approaching storm front.
  • Wind changing direction can signal the passage of a front.

Sky:

  • A rainbow in the west indicates a lot of moisture in the air and the possibility of a storm moving towards you.
  • The old saying of “Red Sky at Night, Sailors delight. Red sky in the morning Sailors take warning.”
    Red sky at night, Sailors delight; The red sky is caused by dust particles stirred up by a high pressure system. This means dry air is headed toward you.
  • Red sky in the morning, Sailors take warning; That high pressure system is now to your East. Low pressure has moved in.
  • If the moon is reddish or pale, dust is in the air. If the moon is bright and sharply focused then high pressure has cleared out the dust.
  • A ring close around the moon is caused by the moon light shining thru cirrus clouds which means rain can be expected within 36 hours.

Animals:

  • Herd animals (Cows, horses, sheep) will usually cluster together prior to a storm.
  • Large numbers of birds sitting on power lines can indicate low pressure
  • Birds will fly higher in high pressure.
  • Animals will usually get quiet just prior to it raining.
  • Crickets can be fairly accurate at telling you the temperature. If you add the chirps a cricket makes in a 14 second time period and add the number to 40 you should come up with the temperature within one or two degrees Fahrenheit. Obviously the temperature would be over 40 degrees Fahrenheit.
  • Ants will stay near their nests and will even cover up the hole on their mound, when they detect low pressure. They will also build up the sides of their mound to shed the rain.
  • Bees can also detect when the pressure is low and will hover around their hives and will not be in your flower beds.

Hopefully this information will be of some use to you not only now, but maybe some of this will be helpful after the Schumer has been flung.   Keep your powder dry!

Are You Sure That You Are Ready To Defend Yourself?, by Brett S.

You stocked supplies with plenty of beans, bullets, and Band-Aids.  You have backup plans to your backup plans and know your family can survive months without any contact from the outside world.  You are ready for just about any cataclysmic event, should one happen.  But are you really ready for the most important decision of your life and the life of your family members?  How far would you go to protect your life and the life of a family member? 

Preparing for disaster doesn’t necessarily mean you prepare for armed combat, but practically, disasters create an environment where the aggressor takes all from those unable to maintain control of their possessions.  Those that have not prepared and find themselves with nothing to lose will do whatever it takes to survive, even robbing, stealing, or killing others to take their supplies.   In a time where laws cannot be enforced, the primal law of the land is king, for whoever is stronger than another, owns that which he can take by force.  This not only includes your supplies and food, but also your family members.

Some people refuse to consider preparing for the possibility of horrific violence that may be placed upon their family members.  By rationalizing fear with excuses of “we’ll be too far away from the city for this to happen”, or “I’ll just shoot whoever tries”, will only increase the odds of failure should you or your family face threats of death and  violence.  The first step of surviving a violent encounter is accepting that it can happen no matter your preparation or denial of the possibility.

As you read this, you are now preparing yourself to defend against this potential violence.  After you read this article, you need to rise from your chair and make plans to save your life and the life of your family members by following two simple rules; (1) Physically prepare to fight for your life and (2) Mentally prepare to take a life.    Unless you have experience in the military or law enforcement, you need to do a lot more than convince yourself that the solution of “I will just shoot them” is all you need to do.    Easy in theory, but in practice, not so much.

The easy part is preparing now for physically defending your family in the future.  This does not mean purchasing an armory of weapons and a ton of ammunition; although if you can do this, you’ll be the envy of many and possibly the focus of a government investigation.   You also do not need to spend years earning a black belt in martial arts.   You do need to know what constitutes a weapon and how to employ it.  This includes items specifically designed as weapons, such as a shotgun or handgun.  It also includes items not specifically designed with a self-defense purpose, but can be effective improvised weapons.  Something as innocuous as a rolled up magazine used as an impact weapon or a power cord of a lamp used as a garrote can be considered improvised weapons and not under the control of any law as weapons.

If you have chosen to not be around firearms, nor touch them, or even teach your children how to be safe around firearms, then you really need to know how to use a wide range of firearms.  Those that regularly carry and practice with firearms are comfortable with their firearms, in the loading, field stripping, and cleaning of the weapons.   The more varied types of weapons used the more versatile ability in using different types of firearms.  Someone without firearms experience may one day have to bear arms and use that weapon immediately, or face certain death.  If you cannot even find the safety of a firearm, load it, or fire it accurately, the weapon is useless in the defense of your family.  At a bare minimum, without even purchasing a firearm, classes exist where you can learn the operation of revolvers, handguns, rifles, and shotguns.  By at least knowing how firearms operate, given a tragic scenario where you may have the good fortune to find a weapon or take a weapon away from your attacker, you just might be able to use it effectively.  Before thinking this may be more than you want to take on, consider that the operation of all weapons is really quite similar in basics.  Learning how to operate one type of revolver will allow you to figure out another type when there are slight differences.   Remember, it’s not like Hollywood.  Firearms need to be loaded and re-loaded.  They jam.  And if you don’t aim or use an accurate pointing system, you will miss.  Just because you may not want to handle firearms does not mean your future attackers feel the same.

From now on, if you haven’t been doing so already, you will look at ‘things’ differently.  Walking into your office, you will see the lamp on your desk a little different.  As you look at the lamp, you ask yourself, “If I were to use this as an impact weapon, how would I hold it?”    Loose items on your desk will be looked at as if they were items of lethal force or at least a distraction when thrown at an attacker.  Your home will become an armory without firearms.  Anyone’s home can become an armory.  Beyond kitchen knives, any item can be used as an impact weapon, penetration weapon, as cover or concealment, or as a distraction thrown at an attacker.  Your basic training need only consist of thinking of how you would use these things, not actually trashing your home and office by practicing. 

After you learn the fundamentals of common firearms operation, where you can safely load and effectively shoot a wide range of firearms, you are still not ready.  Even after you look at everyday items as improvised weapons habitually, you are still not ready to defend your family against violent attackers.  There is the non-physical aspect of preparation; you need to prepare your mind for the potential violence and just as importantly, prepare for the psychological effect of the aftermath of violence.  The end of a violent encounter, doesn’t.  It continues for years and sometimes for a lifetime.

There are many facets of violent encounters that affect the outcome of the encounter, especially when your life is at stake.  During a life and death encounter, where one or more attackers may be intent on taking your possessions, your life, and maybe assaulting your family members, you will endure the highest stress, ever.  This stress will negatively affect your (1) physical ability to respond, your (2) mental capability to think, and your (3) coping measures for the aftermath.  You can lessen, but not eliminate, these negative effects with preparation.

The immediate physical effects that you will experience during a life and death encounter will affect your motor skills along with altering your audio and visual perception.  Your heart rate and breathing will increase and you may have uncontrollable trembling and potentially, a loss of bladder and bowel control.  You might experience tunnel vision, where your field of vision becomes restricted so narrowly, that you may only be able to see the attacker’s weapon.  Your audio senses might block out all noises or even intensify certain sounds.  Examples of this would be the person that saw the barrel of a .22 handgun look as large as a cannon barrel, or the noise of a .22 sounding like a cannon.

Seemingly easy tasks such as unsnapping a holster becomes more difficult with trembling hands and a loss of fine motor skills that require precise movements to find a snap or lever.  The passage of time may also feel distorted, in that everything moves quickly or in slow motion.   Although there are researchers that dispel the notion of slow motion, there are also many accounts of persons that distinctly remember thinking to themselves, “why is he moving so slowly?” during lethal force encounters. 

The physical reactions to a life and death situation are instinctive to the human body.  Increased blood flow through a rapid (higher than normal) heart rate, increased oxygen through rapid breathing, increase in gross motor skills, and perceptional changes in focus all contribute to life saving skills…if you are being chased by a lion and need to run fast without thinking. 
In our world of defending against human attackers, we need to maintain our dexterity in handling weapons, our control of bodily functions to fight, and our mind to think.  The only practical method of doing this is through self-induced practice.  Shooting competitions, as one example, condition the mind and body to automatically perform several key movements, with fluidity, under a time pressure to achieve a goal of accurate fire.  Practicing the manipulation of a weapon to the point that thinking is not needed to perform will check one box off of worry in a lethal force encounter.  

Scenario based training, such as with paintball guns or lasers, can also imprint a consistent response to a perceived threat through repetitive practice.    These practical training scenarios can reduce your reaction time and train your mind as to how people act and react.  As an example, continually reacting to a role that reaches for a weapon in a specific manner, such as reaching in his waistband, trains your mind that a certain movement implies a certain result.  Reaching into a waistband implies pulling out a weapon.  Training yourself for these small gestures gives you more time to identify the threat and react. 

Perfect practice makes perfect, and by training your body to arm itself automatically when a threat is perceived will allow your brain to focus on other important issues.  Some of these issues include identification of the threat and decisions on how to react, when to react, and if you need to react at all.  Maintaining control of your body and mind, as much as can be possible during this time, allows you the most effective means of defending yourself and family.  Knowing that you may be suffering from tunnel vision might be enough to calm yourself to expand your field of vision.  Knowing that the trembling you feel does not have to do with being afraid, but a normal reaction to a life and death experience allows you to concentrate on the more important issues facing you at the time. 

Although you cannot control the effects of an adrenaline dump, you can recognize the effects and control your reaction to them.  As long as your brain continues to think, you can reduce irrational decision making, or an uncontrolled fight/flight response.  You may also prevent your mind from simply freezing and not knowing what to do, other than hope for a divine rescue. 
One of the most effective means of training for lethal encounters is through visualization.  Simply visualizing a scenario and your correct response will give you positive results in the future, in similar situations.  If your work requires you to fly constantly, you can constantly visualize scenarios during flights and think of reactions to threats.  Over time, you’ll have a bank account of many responses to many types of threats should it ever happen (again).  Again, thinking is of utmost importance, as you need to be able to quickly identify if there is a threat and choose an option to deal with it, sometimes within a split second.

Another important consideration to prepare is that of the aftermath of a life and death encounter.  Regardless if you had no choice but to take a life or if the attack was prevented through other means, there are long lasting effects.  As each person is different, there are different reactions.  These reactions range from elation of surviving a lethal encounter to revulsion as to what transpired.  Regret, anger, aggressiveness, nightmares, loss of control of emotions, trouble concentrating, flashbacks, and just plain not feeling ‘right’ are effects of being a survivor (or winner) of a lethal force encounter.  Denying that these can happen to you may only make the effects that much worse.  This has nothing to do with being ‘tough’.

Some of these effects can be reduced or eliminated through the physical practice mentioned in this article and others reduced through visualizations, all of which need to happen BEFORE the incident.  After the incident, therapy and counseling will help cope with the negative effects.  By not preparing beforehand and certainly by not taking care of yourself afterward, you can expect the full effect of a post-traumatic stress disorder.   Those that have trained for their career in deadly force encounters, such as those in the military and law enforcement have an edge of training and experience.  They even may have an edge in delaying the after effects of deadly force encounters.  But, we are all human and suffer from the human condition.  Eventually, everyone, including the most experienced combat veteran, will experience these life changing effects, whether it be days after or decades later.

The intention of this article is not to convince anyone to avoid taking a life should that be the only recourse in protecting yourself and family.  The intention is to push you to prepare yourself now for that horrific event in the chance that it comes to your door or into your home.  It is also to help you to help your family member that may have to go through this to save your life as care and understanding does help.

So as you prepare with supplies, prepare for winning a lethal encounter.  As much as you try to avoid it, and as much as you hope that it may never happen, you just never know.  The odds of a lethal encounter are higher than you may imagine, even as you shop in a grocery store, fly on a plane, or stop at a traffic light.  Avoid that what you can; gain control of that which has gone out of control; and take comfort in your faith and family to support your traumatic experience should it ever come to that.

Letter Re: The History of Societal Collapse and Implications for The American Redoubt

Mr. Rawles,
I recently watched a speech given by Jared Diamond, author of the books Guns, Germs and Steel and Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, among others.  It was very interesting and prompted me to write this post (which I first posted over at Guerrillamerica.com.)

I’m watching Jared Diamond speak about why societies collapse.   As you may know, Diamond wrote the book Guns, Germs, and Steel and Collapse, among others (and they’re all great).  Here are five factors that Jared says affect the collapse of societies.  I’ll take notes and relate these effects to the American Redoubt region.  Think of these as thinking points as opposed to talking points.

Human Impacts on the Environment
There are massive human impacts on the environment in parts of the American Redoubt, although much of the Redoubt states are a majority of Federally-owned lands.  Because Redoubt states are so richly endowed with natural resources (hydrocarbons, metals, minerals, and lumber); there’s going to be an equal amount of focus on getting those substances out of the ground.  That can create pollution and a degradation of the environment, which Jared says causes societies to collapse.  There will have to be a happy-medium solution to resource extraction and protection of the environment because we’re economically dependent on these resources in order to function.  Will the American Redoubt be held hostage by international oil cartels (along with the rest of America) or will we make strides to become energy independent?  My bet is on the latter.

Diamond cites a few different examples of how the environment ultimately did-in societies; from the collapse of the Mayan civilization to the Norse in Greenland.  For the Norse, overgrazing and deforestation contributed to the entire Norse population in Greenland dying off.

There are environmental factors that are “too subtle” to realize until it’s too late; as in the case of the Norse.  One of the subtle factors we might include is the population growth over the next decade.  If we do see a financial collapse, followed by a domino effect of other collapses, we’ll likely see an influx of patriots to the American Redoubt.  The slower the process of collapse – if Americans do have time to get out of Dodge in an orderly fashion – the faster we’ll see immigration into the Redoubt.

We should consider how we’ll harvest and extract natural resources in order to support the populace and the defense of the region.  In any number of scenarios, the American Redoubt states would likely have to provide for their own defense; export resources for cash; and manage an influx of immigrants.  That can induce stress on resource production, especially if demand outpaces available supply.  Could our treatment of the environment to make life better in the short term actually end up harming us in the long term?

I’m by no means an “environmentalist” but we have a long term interest in being good stewards of the environment.  That’s not just for the environment but also for us.  When our society literally depends on the environment by which we’re surrounded, we have a vested interest in strategically consuming or harvesting those resources.

[JWR Adds: Thankfully the population density in the American Redoubt is quite low. The population crash examples that Jared Diamond cited were nearly all in areas where the population density grew too high vis-a-vis the natural resources. If there were a rapid in-migration, it would still take a century or more for the Redoubt to overpopulate to the point where it outstrips its resources. For example, the county where I live has less than five people per square mile. Even if the population were to expand by a factor of 10, there would still be plenty of elbow room here. And there is enough timber here to support 20 times the population.]


Climate Change
I don’t believe in anthropomorphic (man-made) climate change but I can easily see how the climates of geographical regions have and can change over time.  We’ve had ice ages and we’ve had warming periods; that’s just the history of the globe as a whole.  If we are indeed experiencing climate change in the Redoubt states, then our survivability in this region could be at stake.
Let’s just assume that climate change is indeed occurring in Redoubt states (purely hypothetical).  Because most of the Redoubt region consists of semi-arid valleys and high deserts, how would warming affect precipitation, the environmental ability to accumulate and retain moisture over the winter (snowfall and snow pack), and run-off which constitutes a large portion of irrigation that makes farming these regions possible?

How would climate change increase the stress on our water tables and aquifers and on crops within the climate threshold?

Relations with Friendly Societies
We have to define “Friendly Societies” as the states (or societies) immediately surrounding the Redoubt; and also include most states in the Union as well as the regions of Canada to the north (British Colombia, Alberta, Saskatchewan).  (States, regions, or societies we don’t include here will fall under Hostile Societies.)
Because the Redoubt is landlocked, we’ll be heavily dependent upon neighboring friendly societies for products and resources not indigenous to the region.  If we want a fresh tomato in January, we’d better figure out how trade is going to work under conditions where resources are scare (if we can even figure it out).  I believe the Redoubt can be energy independent and so our ability to export much needed resources will be an incentive for those friendly societies to remain friendly.
But at what point could we see conflict, coercion, and punishment from hostile societies?

Relations with Hostile Societies
The American Redoubt, with its vast resources and above average infrastructure, will still be under threat of systems disruption (def: the slowing or stopping of critical networks) to include interruptions of petrol, finance, energy, and economic networks (along with the rest of America).  The same nefarious actors that threaten America as a whole will pose a threat to the Redoubt as well.  We’ll likely be limited in our ability (as Redoubters) to effect change on international adversaries and non-state entities and be wholly dependent on the response of America at large.
For the purpose of the American Redoubt, I’ll include regional self-government as being under threat of hostile societies. Domestic hostile societies include large pockets of the Federal and military establishment; societies within the American Redoubt itself who won’t want to live in a “free state”; and potentially large swaths of the population on both coasts.  In a true collapse scenario, there will likely be more immediate problems than the independent mountain states; but to overlook any segment of the American population would be foolish.

Political, Economic, Social, and Cultural Factors of Society
The political foundations in the American Redoubt states are what I’d call “pretty solid.”  Liberty is still heralded as a major political issue although it becomes somewhat diminished in certain parts of each state.  The American Redoubt, by the numbers, has a strong economy; the region as a whole is in the top 25% of the nation when it comes to unemployment and at about the national average in other categories such as median household income.  Societal and cultural factors include a tolerance for logging, mining, and drilling (willing to accept risk for the reward); and very supportive of both hunting and gun laws.  Independence outweighs dependency and most believe that when the government gives to one what is not earned, another must work for without receiving.  Over-regulation and government interference are shunned in most places, which makes the American Redoubt states pretty great places to live.
Redoubters, I believe, when push comes to shove are responsive to intrusive government and laws of soft tyranny; although a few do manage to pass from time to time.  Compared to the rest of the nation, liberties in the Redoubt are either being upheld or eroding at a much slower rate.

Conclusion
Jared Diamond explains that a number of societies haven’t experienced a slow, steady decrease; but instead rise to prominence only to fall very rapidly – years at minimum; decades at max – and collapse.  He likens that to a growth of bacteria in a petri dish, where the bacteria grows, the availability of food diminishes and disappears, and the bacterial growth collapses on relatively short order.

Those societies that collapsed failed to perceive their problems, failed to solve their problems, or both; some for lack of realization, some for lack of effort, or others for lack of ability.
“One blueprint for trouble, making collapse likely” is the rift between the “short term interests of the decision making elites and the long term interests of the society as a whole; especially if the elites are able to insulate themselves from the consequences of their actions.”  We see this today in America.  Our decision makers – Congress, who passes laws regarding healthcare and social security that don’t pertain to them – are adept at insulating themselves from the consequences of their actions and this makes me very concerned with the nation’s survivability over the long term.

Finally, Jared Diamond says that societies must solve all their problems; that it does no good for a society to solve eleven threats but not solve the twelfth.  Regarding issues threatening collapse, we have to get it right 100% of the time.

These are five factors that every Redoubter should consider and we need to work on solving these problems before they threaten our society. – Partisan

Economics and Investing:

Sue C. sent: Analysis: As worst euro fears fade, U.S. fiscal cliff looms

J. McC. sent: Corn and soybean supplies at an eight year low.

Jim Rogers on Quantitative Easing: “We’re All Going To Pay A Horrible Price For This.” (Thanks to Jim W. for the link.)

Items from The Economatrix:

Former ECB Chief Economist Says ECB is in a Panic, as Czech President Warns the End of Democracy is Imminent

Euro Crisis Even Staggers Irish Pubs

Consumers Cut Credit Card Use For Second Month