Poll Results on SurvivalBlog’s Web Design

The vast majority of readers voted in favor leaving SurvivalBlog the way its is–predominantly text, for minimum bandwidth. I did learn that man readers would like more links to off-site graphics and videos. I also learned that I need to warn folks when a link is to a video, so that their mobile devices aren’t overwhelmed or “blow their budget” on bandwidth . So henceforth I will try to include the word “video” in those text links,

Letter Re: Firearms Selection for Times of Ammunition Shortages

Dear JWR,
Last spring, with the ammo shortage clearing the shelves everywhere, I found myself in a position to expand my collection.  I decided on a Ruger .44 Magnum Super Blackhawk, with the 7" barrel.  Legal for whitetail in my state, you see.  Having neglected to actually check the retail supply, I assumed that the shortage would be primarily the military calibers (9mm Para, .45 ACP, 5.56mm NATO, .308, and 7.62x39mm) with the civilian calibers being readily available.

Experienced wheelgunners are already laughing.  Took me a month to track down 100 rounds of basic .44 Magnum.  Eventually, diligent checking at Wal-Mart (I work nights, what else is open at 5 AM?) landed me another 200.  Over the rest of the summer.  Usually buying the one remaining box of 50 rounds.

Things started to loosen up a bit here, and I picked up a S&W in .357, as a friend had laid in 500 rounds of reloads a couple years back, and gave me  a box of leftover factory .38 Special.  I find it amusing that a box of 100 .38 Special costs about the same as 50 of .44 Magnum! Also, the local farm supply carries .38 Special and .357 Magnum, but not .44 Magnum or .44 Special.

Through this whole business, I have been impressed by the fact that the much-derided .45 Colt has been readily available at Wal-Mart, including a combination pack of 25 rounds of .45 Colt and 25 of .410.  My congratulations to anyone who had the foresight to buy one of the combination .45/.410 pistols.  That and .40 S&W were the only pistol ammo continuously in stock at Wal-Mart since April 2013, when I started looking.  Many of us originally chose 9mm pistols and 5.56mm or .308 rifles for for long-term ammo availability–ammo in military calibers is supposedly plentiful.  Lately, this has proven false.  Any first-time pistol buyers this year who purchased .45 Colt revolvers showed more foresight than I had. – Ethan A.

[JWR Adds: While .45 Colt (commonly but erroneously called ".45 Long Colt") is a fine cartridge ballistically–with plenty of power for self defense (especially if you handload), I generally recommend .44 Magnum for anyone desiring a large bore handgun. The key problem with .45 Colt is that it has a relatively narrow cartridge rim. So, when shooting swing-out cylinder revolvers with a typical rim extractor "star", you will occasionally get a cartridge rim stuck underneath the extractor, when you make the fired brass ejection stroke. This is a mere annoyance when target shooting, but it could prove deadly if it were to happen in the midst of a serious shooting affray.

The .410 shotshells (with buckshot or slugs) are a poor choice for self defense. So if you own one of the new pistol/shotshell long-cylinder revolvers, my advice is to keep it loaded with .45 Colt jacketed hollow points. Only load it with shotshells when shooting grouse or garden pests.]

Odds ‘n Sods:

Ken W. suggested: Proper Field Dressing in Today’s CWD World

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Frequent content contributor F.J. sent this from MIT Technology Review: How Remote Places Can Get Cellular Coverage by Doing It Themselves
With Swedish telephone numbers and a tree-bound base station, a remote Indonesian village runs its own telecommunications company.

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H.L. sent: Rhode Island town voting on recall after gun-permit row

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Construction of secret hiding places. (Thanks to Pete S. for the link.)

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Video: J. McC. mentioned a 1950s Special Forces training film (now on YouTube) which hypothesizes insurgency actions in the U.S. by Green Berets after Communists concentrated in the Yeasty East have caused the country’s balkanization.  Although there are a lot of little details that bother—big hand movements, sub-optimal choker-hold, muzzle-sweeping, the film still offers much of interest, and its host site offers many more similar works.

Notes from JWR:

Today marks the birthday of Simo Häyhä (born 1905, died April 1, 2002.) He was the world’s most successful sniper. Using an iron-sighted Mosin–Nagant in Finland’s Winter War, he had an astounding 505 confirmed sniper kills.

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Today we present another entry for Round 50 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The $9,400+ worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course. (A $1,195 value.) B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), F.) A $300 Gift Certificate from Freeze Dry Guy. G.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. H.) A roll of $10 face value in pre-1965 U.S. 90% silver quarters, courtesy of GoldAndSilverOnline.com. The current value of this roll is at least $225, I.) Both VPN tunnel and DigitalSafe annual subscriptions from Privacy Abroad. They have a combined value of $195. J.) KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304. and K.) APEX Gun Parts is donating a $250 purchase credit.

Second Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. C.) A FloJak EarthStraw “Code Red” 100 foot well pump system (a $500 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. D.) $300 worth of ammo from Patriot Firearms and Munitions. (They also offer a 10% discount for all SurvivalBlog readers with coupon code SVB10P.), E.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials F.) A full set of all 25 of the books published by PrepperPress.com. This is a $250 value, G.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value). H.) EP Lowers, makers of 80% complete fiber composite polymer lowers for the AR-15 rifles is donating a $250 gift certificate, and I.) Autrey’s Armory — specialists in AR-15, M4s, parts and accessories — is donating a $250 gift certificate.

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security., E.) A MURS Dakota Alert Base Station Kit with a retail value of $240 from JRH Enterprises. F.) Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances, and G.) Ambra Le Roy Medical Products in North Carolina is donating a bundle of their traditional wound care and first aid supplies. This assortment has a retail value of $208.

Round 50 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Protecting Your Church, by Wandering Will

The service has ended, we say goodbye to our friends, wait for everyone to leave then lock up the church.  The drive home takes only a few minutes and when we arrive my wife and I take off and secure our weapons and conduct a debrief on any problems we encountered during the service.  Not exactly the Norman Rockwell version of a day in church.  I realize that the fact that someone would carry a weapon in church is appalling to many people.  However, before you begin stereotyping Christians as right-wing radicals, ask yourself a few questions.  When you were growing up, how many people did you know who were the victims of some type of crime?  In the last year, how many people do you know that have been the victim of some type of crime?  If you are at least forty years old, you can easily quote the numbers, and the increase is significant.  Whereas crimes against property, institutions, and people have increased dramatically ( regardless of what the local media tells you), unfortunately the church has been given no exemption. 

My journey into the world of church security took the proverbial long and winding road, but I will condense it down to the basics.  A chance encounter a couple of years before had introduced us to a couple who were like-minded, great people.  We kept in touch and became close friends.  As the situation in the country continued to deteriorate we, like many “preppers”, recognized that going it alone in hard times was not a good option. Clearly, our new friends were the ones we wanted watching our backs so we relocated to a city in the southeast to join forces with our friends to form a safe haven for “old geezers”.  After all, we had four senior citizens and a .22 rifle, what could possibly go wrong?   Soon after settling in, we began a search for a church.  After several unsuccessful visits to area churches we found a small country church and sat down to listen.  One sermon and we were pretty sure this was the right place.  The pastor minced no words when delivering the message. Obviously this guy was not going to win any awards for political correctness.  Plain and simple this man spoke the truth.  We began regular attendance and I noticed that each time the pastor did the announcements that he would warn about some act which had occurred at the church, i.e. acts of vandalism, panhandler’s accosting elderly women as they walked to the church door, and other problems.  God began speaking to me and said you know what you need to do.  As usual, I procrastinated.  One day I timidly sought out the pastor to inquire further about the incidents, but he was corralled by other members and I could not talk to him.  The very next week, another incident occurred and as I sat in the pew God was very direct with me, get off your butt and do it.   After we returned home I spoke to my wife and told her my plan, she was in total agreement.  That day I wrote the pastor an e-mail simply stating that I have a number of years of experience in the security field and that if there was anything I could do to help let me know.  The Pastor’s reply was quick and direct; I want you to set up a security team to protect the church.  Well, I guess I’m in it now!  Right on schedule the devil put the doubts into my head. I am brand new at this church I don’t know anybody, nobody knows me, why would a team follow someone they don’t know, etc.
Again, cutting to the chase, the team was formed.  The program launched and we continue to improve.  What I would like to do is offer some of the lessons learned from our startup to folks who are recognizing the need to protect their church.

Clearly state and understand your mission – When I tell people about our program the first thing they say is why does a church need a security program?  My first response is Proverbs 22.3 A prudent man sees danger and takes refuge, but the simple keep going and suffer for it. A quick internet search will produce an astounding number of crimes directed at churches.  Most people remember the church shootings in  Colorado Springs, Colorado, and Knoxville, Tennessee, but harbor the same delusion that it could never happen at their church.  When you decide to start a security program, clearly define what it will and will not cover and get buy-in from the governing body of your church.  Nothing says that you cannot expand your program at a later date, and you probably should. More on that later.
 
Do your home work- Before you start worrying about whether your team should carry  .44 magnums or 9mms you need to understand what most police officers already know, most of the job is paper work.  Ah man, that’s no fun! Sorry people, but it’s the truth. You will be dealing with vulnerability assessments, threat assessments, job descriptions, operating procedures, architectural drawings, and on and on and on.  Don’t panic if your knowledge in these areas is limited, there is help out there.  Tina Lewis Rowe Training has some really excellent material on building a program and this fine lady allows you to use the material free of charge, just respect her copyright and follow her agreement. 
 
Pick your team (carefully) – When I started our program my team was chosen for me, and it could not have worked out better.  I got men of the church who were well known by the congregation, mature and level-headed.  Most were veterans ranging from Vietnam to Iraq and Afghanistan.   Later,  two ladies joined the team and if there were any doubts as to their abilities (which I doubt there were) they were quickly dispelled during a team trip to the range. All of  these team members were clearly a blessing, but the chances of you being handed a team of this quality are rare.  Choose your members using established criteria, look for mature folks who have good decision-making skills, avoid those who volunteer because of the “cool” factor.  Also, recruit younger members who you can train and have ready to replace people as they leave, and don’t get your feeling hurt because people will leave.  Establish a clear chain-of-command and impress on your volunteers how important the job is.
 
To carry or not to carry – This is one of the most controversial decisions you will have to make.  The church I attended before my move was partially governed by a group of elders.  Although we had no formal security team, a few of us stepped up when a threat was made against our pastor.  To our surprise some of the elders simply would not stand for anyone having a gun in church regardless of the fact that these men were police officers and concealed-carry holders.  The solution to this problem was obvious, smile, drop the subject, and do a better job of concealing your weapon.  After a lot of research and prayer, the firearms policy at my present church was formed and we tried to keep it simple.  Those who had valid carry permits were allowed to carry while performing their assigned security duties.  It is our belief that you must be as well equipped as those who seek to harm you if you are to have a viable defense.  However, each team member is made well aware of the legal and moral and financial hazards should they be forced to use a firearm.  If you have a church attorney, consult with them.  If you do not have an attorney, I recommend you read two books before deciding: Evil Invades Sanctuary by Carl Chin and  God, the Gunman & Me by Jeanne Assam.    
                      
Build a comprehensive program- Please understand you must have a program that covers more than security.  If you protect the pastor from a mugger but the church burns down because you did not do routine fire extinguisher inspections, then your program has failed.  Your program must have many aspects including but not limited to security, fire protection, emergency evacuation, executive protection, and weather emergencies.  One of the first things we did was to install locks on numerous storage and maintenance areas, you do not need a kid playing with electrical cable. Do not alienate the congregation, once you start implementing rules no matter how correct and necessary they are, people will be offended.  Ask for input when practical, gradually implement new procedures.  When we first fielded our team, some church members were uneasy with these “security people“ hanging out at different locations.  After a few weeks of these “security people” holding umbrellas for people getting out of their cars and escorting the ladies to their cars when they parked in a dark area of the lot, sentiment changed. Write well thought out and researched procedures, practice those procedures, and drill on those procedures. 

In conclusion I would like to add if you hear the call that your church needs your talents, step up.  I was standing in the parking lot one cold rainy night and I realized that my years as a fire fighter, SWAT team leader,  and emergency manager were all preparation for this most important job and that I was exactly where I was supposed to be.

Letter Re: Any Escape from Obamacare?

Mr. Rawles,
Is there any way that I can avoid enrolling in Obamacare? (I believe that abortion is sinful and there’s no way I want to support it.) Thanks, – Debra L.

JWR Replies: As currently enacted, the Affordable Care Act (commonly called “Obamacare)” contains a special exemption provision for members of healthcare sharing ministries. One of the best of these is called Medi-share. A similar plan–and even less expensive per month–is available from Samaritan Ministries.

Letter Re: Berkey Water Filters Work!

Dear Editor:
I live an in area that is considered to have excellent water, however with time and age the delivery system is having some issues.  I am a great water drinker so this is an important matter to me personally, not withstanding any kind of a meltdown.  A friend of mine recommended that I buy a Berkey brand water filter.  So I researched and of course found that they are not cheap.  Being one that does so much with alternative purchases such as yard, estate type sales I almost choked when I heard the price.  I contacted LPC Survival (aka Directive 21) an advertiser on SurvivalBlog and made my final purchase. They even tossed in free shipping.  My friend also recommended buying two extra filters (there is space for four filters) because they will flow faster.  He has had his system over 10 years and loves it. 

So after sweating a few financial bullets and putting it together, I have to just write about how wonderful it is.  I told my husband who has had a kidney infection that it is better for this item to filter the water rather than having his kidneys do the work.  So after I set it up lo and behold I read a negative item on this system [with an earlier generation of black filter cartridges] that it would not even filter out red dye, imagine my dismay after having spent a bundle.  So I tried the red dye test, I had a little bottle of it and so I poured almost half of it in.  After a week, still no pink water, I looked inside the top and the water was still red.  I was truly impressed. I cleaned out the top, checked all the plastic screws (a sort of a tune up) and continued using it, I think that if the screws were loose, red dye would show.  A friend tried the water and described it as having a velvety texture. 

I have since purchased an extra spout kit just in case that fateful day arrives and postal delivery is no longer available. I purchased that spare because it gets used so much I want an instant replacement.   We all want to be prepared and there are many things that we can cut corners with or simply survive without, but clean water is not one of them.  So I will buy used and refurbished but there are a couple of things that you simply must suck up and buy new. I chose a Berkey water filter as one.  This is a “must have” and I highly recommend it.
Thank you for your blog and all the education it has given me.  – D.N. in Spokane

News From The American Redoubt:

Gary Marbut (one of the originators of the now famous “Made in Montana” guns law) has proposed novel legislation: The Constitutional Settlements Commission of the States

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R.B.S. sent: Lt. Gov: In rural Idaho, quite a lot of hostility.

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A larger American Redoubt? PPP Poll: Colorado Getting Redder . (A hat tip to to H.L. for the link.)

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He never even really had to apply or interview… Harsin agrees to five year $6.5 million contract with Boise State. (So…. Does the extra advertising and scholarship revenue of a “winning” team offset all of that compensation?)

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Spokane man accused of stealing a cabin. Thanks to R.B.S. for the link.

Economics and Investing:

Reader Tom H. sent: Price of silver could double because of Apple

Washington & Wall-Street: The Death of Money. (Thanks to both Gregg P. and to Jeff in Texas for the link.)

C.D.V. sent this: Yet Another Massive Nail In The Dollar’s Coffin

Items from The Economatrix:

Richard Russell – US May Destroy The World Monetary System

The One Topic No One Is Discussing

Congressional Odd Couple Finally Strikes a Budget Deal 

Odds ‘n Sods:

Here is a clever new product, from Israel: The Recover Grip and Rail “skin.” Note: These won’t be available until after SHOT Show but you can pre-order.

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Gregg P. mentioned this great example of trans-national dependencies and the JIT food supply chain: Map shows what it takes to make one single jar of Nutella

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K.T. recommended this great reference site: Exterior Ballistics

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I’ve warned you about Common Core. Beware the “New New Math” in CC math textbooks. (I suppose these should be called “Al Gore Rhythms,” since Gore is a big backer of the CC nonsense.)

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James C. potted this over at Survivopedia: Social Crisis Approaching: 3 Signs of Tyranny

Note from JWR:

Today is the birthday of Philip K. Dick (born 1928, died March 2, 1982.) He penned a remarkable number of sci-fi novels and novellas that have been adapted into movies including Blade Runner, Total Recall, Screamers, Impostor, Minority Report, Paycheck, A Scanner Darkly, Next, and The Adjustment Bureau. Though he had a troubled personal life (with drug use and several failed marriages), his captivating books certainly had a knack for envisioning potential futures.

Precious Metals — 2013 Year in Review, by Steven Cochran

This year saw a battle for the direction of precious metals waged between speculators and short-term “paper gold” traders in the West, against record-breaking physical demand in the East. That physical demand from Asia reached new highs in 2013, underpinning a market that saw the outflows from precious metals ETFs eagerly snapped up by the Chinese and Indians.
Gold and silver ended the year about where they ended 2010, while platinum was down only slightly from 2012. Palladium was the big performer, doing even better in 2013 than last year, but not as well as the all-time high reached in 2011.

Central bank money printing didn’t ignite hyperinflation in 2013, as many feared. This was mostly because the banks that were receiving these funds kept them to themselves, instead of lending them out. Sine the money didn’t circulate as intended, inflation was kept in check. The central banks had hoped that the Big Banks would lend money to businesses, and restart the economy. But the banks found someplace they could make more money than by making loans in a time of abnormally low interest rates: the stock market. The Fed kept interest rates artificially low for the fifth year, and companies used low interest loans to buy back shares and boost their stock price.This also had traders dump shares of precious metals ETFs and jump with both feet into stocks.
Outside of blatant manipulation, precious metals showed a tendency to stick to tight trading ranges, faced with good news and bad. Inflation in Asia, combined with low gold prices, kept the gold flowing from west to east. Let’s take a month-by-month look at the year in precious metals for 2013.

JANUARY
The “fiscal cliff” was averted on December 31, but it was just a “kick the can” solution, pushing the sequester to March. The Bank of Japan imitates the Fed by starting its own open-ended Quantitative Easing, and India raises the import tariff on gold from 4% to 6% in an attempt to stop record-breaking demand. In the US, the new 2013 American Silver is introduced in the middle of the month, and completely sells out in under two weeks. The U.S. Mint stops sales of the coins for two weeks, because it has no silver blanks. The Royal Canadian Mint rations Silver Maple Leafs, due to excessive demand.
The German government announces that it is going to repatriate its foreign-held gold, but the Fed refuses to give it to them. It even refuses to let the Bundesbank representatives even see the gold (they wanted to check serial numbers on the bars.) A deal is finally reached to let the Germans have their gold bit by bit, over seven years. Unrest in South Africa rises as platinum miners announce plans to close unprofitable mines.

FEBRUARY
On the heels of the German repatriation story, news leaks out that the Mexican central bank has never actually seen the gold it supposedly owns in London. The Mexican high court orders an audit. The Shanghai Gold Exchange hits the first import record of many this year. In the U.S., the stock market panics when records show that the Fed considered scaling back its “money printing” of buying $85 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Gold drops when it is revealed the George Soros sold 55% of his gold ETF holdings at the end of 2012.
Europe, already in disarray over the Greek bailout, is now faced with a deadlock election in Italy, and  the possibility that Italy will default and leave the EU.

MARCH
A divided Congress is unable to make a deal, and the sequester across-the-board spending cuts hit an economy still in trouble. The banking industry in Cyprus blows up, unable to survive its large exposure to Greek debt. All banks are closed, and credit cards frozen. Cypriots have to resort to bartering to survive. The “Bail-In” is invented, where the government seizes a portion of depositors’ money to help pay for the bail out of the banks. Germany and the rest of the EU refuse to finance a normal bailout, as Cyprus was a tax haven where people hid money.

APRIL
The Great Manipulation hits the gold market. In the early hours of April 12, gold contracts totaling 400 TONS are sold into the market when everyone was asleep, crashing the price down $200/oz. Whoever did this lost millions of dollars, so it is assumed it was a large player who stood to gain by crashing the market. Things didn’t work out exactly as planned, as a global frenzy for physical gold erupted. The Hong Kong Gold Exchange totally ran out of physical gold, and silver bullion in the U.S. disappears as buyers purchase everything in sight. Production bottlenecks mean that a temporary silver shortage results.

MAY
Gold continues to fall, losing $60/oz on the month, but this is mainly from “paper gold” trading in the West. A physical gold shortage in Asia persists, even as gold in the West is resmelted into .9999 fine 1 kilo bars and sent east to eager buyers. In Switzerland, a populist right-wing party gains enough votes on their petition to call a national referendum on repatriating Switzerland’s foreign gold reserves.

JUNE
Currency exchange rigging among the Big Banks is revealed, yet central banks claim there is no gold or silver market rigging. India increases gold import taxes again, to 8%, after Indians set a record for gold imports after the April price drop.
June 19: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke tells reporters that the Fed will start “tapering” it’s $85 billion a month in bond purchases this fall, with a complete end by next summer. Stock markets plunge, the dollar skyrockets (killing foreign currencies) and gold falls under $1300/oz. Banks in China, who are the main sellers of gold there, run out of physical gold. The Indian rupee collapses, putting gold (which is denominated in dollars) out of the reach of many.

JULY
Gold recovers back over $1300 as physical demand in Asia hits unprecedented levels. Gold import restrictions in India means the market price for gold there is $20 over global spot. Smuggling is exploding, as gold supply dries up. The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced that it has now shipped more gold into China in the first seven months than it did for all of 2012. Iran is hit with more economic sanctions over its nuclear program, and Turkey is found to be paying Iran in gold for for cross-border oil imports. A new 200-ton silver vault in Singapore is pre-booked to 30% capacity before it even opens its doors. A revolution breaks out in Egypt, while a civil war continues in Syria. This lends some safe-haven support to gold.

AUGUST
Precious metals recover more from the June drop, with gold hitting a two-month high and ending at $1394. Silver enters a bull market, rising 20% over the June lows. The U.S. threatens military intervention in Syria after news that the Assad government used chemical weapons against rebels. Violence escalates in Egypt. India raises its gold import tax to 10%. Pakistan bans gold imports for one month, after it becomes apparent that people are using a tax break loophole to import gold and smuggle it into India. The Chinese economy starts improving, raising gold demand. Rumors start that the Fed will start “tapering” next month.

SEPTEMBER
The Fed shocks everyone and decides not to start reducing quantitative easing. The U.S. government is locked into a budget showdown over defunding Obamacare, which threatens to have the government default on its debt. Europe is still unsettled, with Greece wanting to renegotiate its bailout.

OCTOBER
The U.S. government goes into partial shutdown for the first time in 17 years, over the budget showdown. The government comes within hours of defaulting on its debt, which shakes global confidence in America so much that the Chinese call for a “de-Americanized world” where nations won’t be so exposed to the dollar. Gold in India hits $120/oz over global spot price due to shortages. Small jewelry companies are rumored to be setting up their own smuggling rings to survive. China and the EU start cracking down on bad bank loans. The Fed doesn’t even talk about the shutdown, and thinks things are great, panicking the markets into thinking, surely, they will taper in December. Gold recovers back above $1,300 again.

NOVEMBER
The Fed scares markets by talking about a December taper, which knocks gold back under $1300. The U.S. Mint announces that the 2014 Silver Eagle bullion coins will be released a week later in January, to give them time to make enough, but they will still be rationed from day 1. American Silver Eagle sales hit an all-time record on November 12. November 20 sees massive gold manipulation TWICE in the same day. Each time, 150,000 oz (4.66 tons) of gold was sold at once, causing circuit breakers to trip and halting trading for 20 seconds both times. This was paper contracts of course, no physical gold changed hands.
The economy in the U.S., China, U.K., and Germany improve markedly, as the Chinese announce market reforms to make the yuan easier to use in international trade. A surprise deal with Iran and the major powers boosts stocks, but the same day, China puts an air defense zone over Japanese-held islands that are claimed by China. This rallies gold enough to make up some of the losses due to taper fears.

DECEMBER
Rapidly improving economies in the U.S., U.K., and China pressure gold to five-month lows, but gold pops back over $50 as the market becomes over-sold.

About the Author: Steven Cochran is with Gainesville Coins