Economics and Investing:

D.L.T. sent us this: The modern economy depends on dozens of obscure metals. What happens if we run out?

Over at Sipsey Street Irregulars, some more evidence that ammunition was and still is a wise investment: Logistics: CMP advisory on .22 Long Rifle

My old friend Conor recommended a BBC news segment about the little-publicized EB-5 Green Card program: Chinese investors ‘buying’ US green cards for $1Million. (Warning to dial-up users: The included video is launched automatically.) Of course the reverse side of that coin is found in countries like Panama, where American retirees are effectively buying residency for as little as $1,000 per month.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Obadiah’s Woodstoves is offering a 5% discount for SurvivalBlog readers, until December 31st, 2013. (Just ask for it, when you order.) They will also include some additional freebies, depending on the size of your order. I should also mention that Obadiah’s is now sponsoring the Wood Cookstove Cook-Off Kick-Off.

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News from The “Gunshine” State: Guns may be in high demand for Floridians’ holiday gifts: FDLE estimates it will conduct 1 million background checks on gun purchases

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I recommend video blogger Wranglerstar’s great series of YouTube videos on using traditional wood felling and bucking tools: Getting Back To Basics

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Several readers mentioned a YouTube clip in which Iraq combat veteran and law enforcement officer Aaron Weiss speaks out on New York’s civilian disarmament “SAFE” Act.

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I keep warning you about social media, folks! Now we learn: Facebook can see what users type even if status is not posted. (Thanks to loyal link contributor J.B.G.)

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Brethren, be followers together of me, and mark them which walk so as ye have us for an ensample.
(For many walk, of whom I have told you often, and now tell you even weeping, that they are the enemies of the cross of Christ:
Whose end is destruction, whose God is their belly, and whose glory is in their shame, who mind earthly things.)
For our conversation is in heaven; from whence also we look for the Saviour, the Lord Jesus Christ:
Who shall change our vile body, that it may be fashioned like unto his glorious body, according to the working whereby he is able even to subdue all things unto himself.” – Philemon 3:17-21 (KJV)

Notes from JWR:

Because of a local ice storm where we are traveling, I’m posting the blog a full day early, in anticipation of possibly limited Internet access.

—

December 22nd is the sad anniversary of the death of SP4 James T. Davis, the first uniformed American combat casualty of the Vietnam War, in 1961. This ASA soldier (of the 3rd Radio Research Unit) was killed in a Viet Cong ambush on a road outside Saigon.

—

Today we present another entry for Round 50 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The $9,400+ worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course. (A $1,195 value.) B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), F.) A $300 Gift Certificate from Freeze Dry Guy. G.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. H.) A roll of $10 face value in pre-1965 U.S. 90% silver quarters, courtesy of GoldAndSilverOnline.com. The current value of this roll is at least $225, I.) Both VPN tunnel and DigitalSafe annual subscriptions from Privacy Abroad. They have a combined value of $195. J.) KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304. and K.) APEX Gun Parts is donating a $250 purchase credit.

Second Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. C.) A FloJak EarthStraw “Code Red” 100 foot well pump system (a $500 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. D.) $300 worth of ammo from Patriot Firearms and Munitions. (They also offer a 10% discount for all SurvivalBlog readers with coupon code SVB10P.), E.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials F.) A full set of all 25 of the books published by PrepperPress.com. This is a $250 value, G.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value). H.) EP Lowers, makers of 80% complete fiber composite polymer lowers for the AR-15 rifles is donating a $250 gift certificate, and I.) Autrey’s Armory — specialists in AR-15, M4s, parts and accessories — is donating a $250 gift certificate.

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security., E.) A MURS Dakota Alert Base Station Kit with a retail value of $240 from JRH Enterprises. F.) Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances, and G.) Ambra Le Roy Medical Products in North Carolina is donating a bundle of their traditional wound care and first aid supplies. This assortment has a retail value of $208.

Round 50 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

A Contingency Bag for Frequent Air Travelers, by T.R. in North Carolina

Your Bug Out bag, Go Bag, SHTF Bag, or whatever you call it contains similar items for each one of us. Some are kept at the door ready at a moment’s notice, some in the trunk of each vehicle all with the same purpose; Mitigation of Risk. As a project manager, Risk Management is a key component to successful project delivery, and one tool of risk mitigation is contingency resources. Understanding the risk and developing contingency to avoid, eliminate, adapt to or reduce the impact upon a project’s outcome. I say all this to share with you my recent experience of experimenting and adapting to build a Air Travelers Contingency Bag.
 
Over the last year my role as a project manager has changed with a promotion to a position that now directs and leads other project manager for our company throughout the most population concentration in the country, the East Coast. My primary responsibility is an area from North Carolina to Maine, but frequent travel to Atlanta and Denver. This is in stark contrast to my previous role which confined my travel to 180-200 miles of home or our retreat location. In an event situation, though difficult but not impossible, it was always possible to get to one of those locations. Since my main travel method was by vehicle packing and carrying a contingency bag with a full pack with significant supplies was always readily available in my truck. Since I have always traveled with my “security contingency bag” that included a means of self defense, but as of February 3rdmy world changed. The promotion was a mixed blessing, a promotion and larger salary but increased risk.
 
I have been working to build an Air Travel Contingency bag since that time and I thought I can’t be the only one that needs this information. I know I am not the only awake person that realizes the world in which we live that travels. So from a project manager’s mind set my thoughts and methodology I personally went through to arrive where I am today.
For all non-project managers, risk management included contingencies to overcome or adapt to a variable that may create a critical project failure, thus the name sake of my bag is a Contingency Bag. My first struggle was what can logistically be packed, not just from a space or load perspective but also legally to avoid TSA/Homeland Security scrutiny.
 
All projects with a begin with a mission in mind, and mine project mission is to travel in-complete the work-get home as quickly as possible to reduce my exposure to the risks associated with traveling in the I-95 Corridor (DC, Philadelphia, New York and Boston). I eliminated planning for an EMP risk while airborne, since well let’s just say the landing will be a little rough. So I eliminate the thought of any carry-on bags and thus increase the size of luggage I can travel with. This allows has allowed me to enter and exit the aircraft quicker, though I still have to wait on other carry on passengers, but I also move quicker through busy airports such as JFK, Atlanta or Denver.
 
With the determination of checking my bag it allows consideration of risks that can be mitigated. I would suggest performing a risk matrix analysis, it helped me to determine how many contingencies I should plan for a event that has a low probability but high impact to those that are high probability but low impact. Some of the contingency planning included the distance from home or retreat and method of return or even if the return would even have a remote possibility of success. This reminded me of all the travelers on I-40 in One Second After. Each contingency should present valid solutions, whether that is walking from Boston to North Carolina, time of year, etc. or surviving in location long term. Not all contingencies will necessary have a high long term success rate, it may only present a solution that reduces the impact of the variable.
 
To avoid getting any deeper into risk management, I only presented it to you to show my methodology used to construct a contingency bag for traveling by air. I then decomposed my bag into categories, I will avoid long lists of specific items, they are numerous lists available and you will want to weigh and build your own bags according to your own risk matrix.
 
As you go through your categories be mindful of the size bag you have chosen. This is important since I assume you, like me would need room for business attire and a change(s) of clothes for your trip. I don’t pack trips in a full military duffle bag, nor do I want the attention. I use a standard suitcase, slightly bigger than a carry-on and I found a bag that when packed takes no more than 50% of the checked suitcase. Make sure it is neutral or black, no HI-VIS colors for the obvious reasons to remain inconspicuous. Also, be mindful you can’t take everything you would if the bag was packed for a bug-out from home scenario or one in which you can travel by car, this is for Air-travel. The categories give you some minimal resources, adjust for your personal situation.
 
Category 1-Water
        I include two bottles of 8oz water in my bag, one the weight is low, and it provides additional containers for future use. Since packing air is a waste of space either take filled bottles or fill them with something useful but dry. I use filled bottles. Purification tablets and a LifeStrawGo
Category2-Fire
        Matches dipped in paraffin, cotton balls soaked in Vaseline, magnesium starter, small pieces of fatwood stored in an empty Altoids can
Category 3-Food
        Three days MREs, instant oatmeal, power energy bars, chocolate bars, instant coffee.
Category 4-Medical
        Standard first aid kit, moleskin, k-Tabs, Fish Antibiotics, Pain relief, Combat Bleed Stop, tourniquet, syringe and a scalpel. Yes, the scalpel makes its way the checked bag security unlike knives. I also, carry two epi-pens and Benadryl since I am allergic to bee stings. I suggest packing these in a Med Kit since it seems that they get through inspections without much scrutiny. Items you pack may be specific again to your personal situation.
Category 5-Clothing
        In addition to your travel clothes which should include a sturdy pair of jeans, I pack extra socks, underwear, thermals, rain jacket, tactical pants and a shirt. As for boots, they are bulky and difficult to pack so when I can I wear them on the plane both way and store them in my rental car upon arrival. Those of you that don’t have that option realize some sacrifices may need to be made if you are traveling with footwear that will last if you need to evacuate by foot.
Category 6-Defense
        This was the most abrupt change. I the past I was able to travel freely in North Carolina and Virginia with a firearm for defense. This all ended leaving me feeling completely unable to defend myself. I first decided to include a knife in my bag thinking it would be overlooked since it was in a checked bag. Wrong! On three consecutive trips three knives were stolen or confiscated. So I quickly decided not to include a knife. Of course the paper work and logistics of declaring a firearm etc was not logistically possible, plus the States and Cities I work are not gun friendly to even their citizens. There are some products I have yet to try that may pass as innocent products but I am not going to list them here for numerous reasons. So for now I have decided that upon arriving at my destination the first stop is a Wal-Mart or Sporting Goods store and purchase a knife. I have padded self addressed envelopes for at the end of the trip I mail myself the knife home or return it to Wal-Mart unopened. Those that I have mailed home now total over 30, thought they will make a great barter item in the future. Bottom Line you will have to think creatively to provide your inherent right to self defense when traveling by air.
Category 7-Shelter
        Flat unwrapped 6×8 tarp, 100’ of Para-cord
Category 8- Cash/Gold and Silver
        Never, ever, pack cash or precious metals in a checked bag unless its Christmas time and you are giving the TSA agents a Christmas bonus! I carry these items on my person, be cautious however since gold and silver bullion shows as a distinctive black circle on TSA X-Ray scanners. I experimented and was pulled and ask about them. My computer bag physically checked. Use discretion when travel with PMs (precious metals not project managers).
Category 9- Communications
        I assumed the communication grid will be limited or down, cell connectivity will be limited similarly to 9-11. I have approached this category as if I was going on a hiking trip alone. I leave all destinations, arrival times, departures, hotel accommodations and phone numbers with my family and a friend at our retreat locations. I also let them know in case of an “event” my intended course of action. I include in my bag maps and a compass of the area I am traveling to mitigate the chance that GPS is down. Included in this category is a flashlight and extra batteries. I additionally discovered that “a friend” has a number a safe houses available to me that I now have access to in an event.
Category 10-Free Space
        Usually by this time there is none so I move into what is available at my hotel destination. Shelter for one, but towels and personal hygiene items are available in your room, as are blankets and some type of food stuff such as fruits, instant oatmeal and grits, etc, but if you do have free space after packing your Contingency Bag add things like a additional food, clothing etc. or personalize it if traveling with children, chances are you won’t have any room.
 
Is this the perfect solution to an Air Travel Contingency Bag, by no means, and your bag will become personalize to your unique Air Travel project as mine has over the last year.  But it is only meant to mitigate a risk just like any other Bug Out, SHTF Bag etc. Good luck in your travels.
 
 JWR Adds: Be sure to check current airline regulations. These seem to change regularly, and they restrict some items which seem quite innocuous.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Matt A. suggested this video: Raising Chickens Without Grain

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Reader J. McC. suggested this essay by Ann Barnhardt: On Timelines and Prepping: Don’t Be a Foolish Virgin

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B.B. sent: Missouri bill would nullify all federal gun laws, ‘past, present or future’

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Janet W. spotted this item: From Saigon with Love: How Noelle Nguyen Hopes to Rebuild the American Dream (A Vietnamese refugee makes it big in America, and starts a mini-Amazon web site carrying only American-made products as a “thank you.”)

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R.B. sent: Men Thought to Be Impersonating Cops Robbing People, Turned Out to Just Be Cops Robbing People

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“His father Zechariah was filled with the Holy Spirit and prophesied:
“Praise be to the Lord, the God of Israel,
because he has come and has redeemed his people.
He has raised up a horn of salvation for us
in the house of his servant David
(as he said through his holy prophets of long ago),
salvation from our enemies
and from the hand of all who hate us—
to show mercy to our fathers
and to remember his holy covenant,
the oath he swore to our father Abraham:
to rescue us from the hand of our enemies,
and to enable us to serve him without fear
in holiness and righteousness before him all our days.
And you, my child, will be called a prophet of the Most High;
for you will go on before the Lord to prepare the way for him,
to give his people the knowledge of salvation
through the forgiveness of their sins,
because of the tender mercy of our God,
by which the rising sun will come to us from heaven
to shine on those living in darkness
and in the shadow of death,
to guide our feet into the path of peace.” – Luke 1:67-79 (KJV)

Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 50 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The $9,400+ worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course. (A $1,195 value.) B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), F.) A $300 Gift Certificate from Freeze Dry Guy. G.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. H.) A roll of $10 face value in pre-1965 U.S. 90% silver quarters, courtesy of GoldAndSilverOnline.com. The current value of this roll is at least $225, I.) Both VPN tunnel and DigitalSafe annual subscriptions from Privacy Abroad. They have a combined value of $195. J.) KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304. and K.) APEX Gun Parts is donating a $250 purchase credit.

Second Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. C.) A FloJak EarthStraw “Code Red” 100 foot well pump system (a $500 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. D.) $300 worth of ammo from Patriot Firearms and Munitions. (They also offer a 10% discount for all SurvivalBlog readers with coupon code SVB10P.), E.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials F.) A full set of all 25 of the books published by PrepperPress.com. This is a $250 value, G.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value). H.) EP Lowers, makers of 80% complete fiber composite polymer lowers for the AR-15 rifles is donating a $250 gift certificate, and I.) Autrey’s Armory — specialists in AR-15, M4s, parts and accessories — is donating a $250 gift certificate.

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security., E.) A MURS Dakota Alert Base Station Kit with a retail value of $240 from JRH Enterprises. F.) Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances, and G.) Ambra Le Roy Medical Products in North Carolina is donating a bundle of their traditional wound care and first aid supplies. This assortment has a retail value of $208.

Round 50 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Harnessing (and Creating) the Community to Work Together in a TEOTWAWKI Situation, by Meir L.

I have recently been reading SurvivalBlog.com, and as an avid hiker/backpacker/adventurer, I am very interested in what this site has to offer. I have been reading the different TEOTWAWKI posts, and I have read different TEOTWAWKI situations, learning and understanding more and more about survival. I enjoy giving back to the community, and I have been searching for my own TEOTWAWKI situation that I can use to help myself and other people learn from it. I realized that about 1 year ago, a really serious TEOTWAWKI situation happened to my community (and family).

I am a religious Jewish 18 year old living in New York. My family and live in Far Rockaway, approximately nine blocks away from the beach. In other words, we are very close to the ocean. About one year ago, we heard on the news that a really big hurricane (Superstorm Sandy) was heading our way. Since we live very close to the ocean, you might think that we get hit with hurricanes all the time. The meteorologists seem to think that also, and about once or twice a year, we get a warning to evacuate. The truth is that we have been getting these warnings since I was born, and NOTHING has ever happened. A few examples are (as quoted from the NYC OEM web site):


FELIX- Hurricane Felix lingered off the East Coast for nearly a week in 1995, menacing the northeastern U.S. before it finally drifted out to sea.
BERTHA- A weakening Tropical Storm Bertha brought heavy rain to the City in July 1996.
EDOUARD- Hurricane Edouard veered out to sea after tracking toward New York City around Labor Day 1996.
FLOYD- In September 1999, Tropical Storm Floyd brought sustained 60 mph winds and dumped 10-15 inches of rain on upstate New Jersey and New York State over a 24-hour period. Flash flooding from this tropical storm — one of the most powerful to affect New York City in a decade — forced hundreds of people to leave their homes in counties just outside the five boroughs. Floyd caused New York City’s schools to close for the first time since 1996 and led the city to open emergency storm shelters as a precautionary measure.
IRENE- In August 2011, Hurricane Irene was downgraded to a tropical storm right before it made landfall in New York City. In preparation the City issued the first-ever mandatory evacuation of coastal areas on August 26, 2011. The evacuation encompassed 375,000 residents living in evacuation zone A, the entire Rockaway Peninsula, and 34 health care facilities located in evacuation zone B. The City sheltered 10,000 evacuees at 81 shelters.

There have actually been more, but since they didn’t affect the entire New York metropolitan region, only Far Rockaway, they didn’t count them. I remember Hurricane Isabella some time ago. But the bottom line is that most of these hurricanes are just fluff and nothing really happened despite all the warnings the news gave us.

As a result of all these factors, whenever a hurricane happens, no matter how intense the warnings are, almost nobody evacuates (at least in my community.) Just to slam the message home, in 2011, the year before Sandy, when the news people, the government, and local organizations told us how “this is the craziest, most intense storm to ever hit the Rockaways…..etc.,” some people did evacuate, and still nothing happened. So in October, 2012, when SHTF, nobody expected it, nobody evacuated, and everything went crazy.

Religious Jewish people in general usually live in the same community, go to the same events, and go to the same Shuls (synagogues). The Far Rockaway Jewish community covers an area of roughly two square miles. The community next door (Lawrence), covers approximately that same, and so on. You can probably walk from Far Rockaway to Manhattan and every few miles walk through a Jewish community. Because of this, when Sandy hit, we were all helping each other out.

There amount of good will was astounding. Just to give a tiny example, we have an online classifieds in the Five Towns (Lawrence, Cedarhurst, Inwood, Woodmere, Hewlett) and Far Rockaway, and to show you how the community got together in order to survive this episode, I will post a few samples of the posts:

“1 pair of Beige and 1 pair of Navy Blue Dickie Pants, New with Tags Size 7 regular. 1 pair each of Black George New with Tags Size 8 Regular. 1 pair of Black George Slightly used Size 8 Regular. Prefer these go to family affected by Hurricane like so many of us.  We also have some polo shirts in similar sizes if interested.”
“If anyone needs some lightly used baby clothes or lost baby clothes in the storm. Sized 0-6 months (boy). Please email or call” 
“you can have wireless internet access at XXX XXXX XXXXXXXX anytime. its wireless network is XXXX. password:   sandy 2012. you can come in or park near driveway and it will work. also for those who need showers come on over until 1 am. you can just come to warm up and relax if that’s what you need
Ally and Sean”
“I have room for 3 people leaving to Brooklyn this afternoon.”
From Achiezer (Local organization):

CLOTHING
=========
We are compiling lists of those that are in the immediate need of clothing. There is a clothing gemach (lending/free organization) that has already been set up at XXXX Reads Lane in Far Rockaway. Anyone who requires may go there for clothing for men, women, boys and girls as well as coats and shoes. If anyone would like to donate clothing to members of the community, please email XXXXXXXXXXXX@gmail.com
FOOD
====
If you have no choice but to remain in homes in the Far Rockaway/Five Towns and do not have food for Shabbos (Saturday) or during the week, please call our hotline and prepared foods will be made available for you. (Please keep in mind that many people do not have access to email. Please share this information with anyone you know.)  Fully catered meals are being made available to anyone in the Far Rockaway/Five Towns communities who require.  Please email XXXX@ACHIEZER.ORG or call  XXX-XXX-XXXX to let us know how many meals are needed.  The MET Council along with the JCCRP have opened up a respite area in the White Shul as well as the Young Israel of Bayswater starting at 7pm for Far Rockaway/Bayswater residents.  Anyone who would like some hot food or a place to charge your phones may go there starting tonight.”
“I have a few bags of challah (bread) rolls and some bread for someone that needs it. I can house a single or couple; sorry I don’t have room for kids. If you need a shower; change; place for charging cell phones, computers, etc.  If you need (a) Shabbat meals(s) let me know.”
“Dozens of beautifully catered shabbos packages for any families that would like for shabbos are being distributed RIGHT NOW. These include challah, grape juice, matzo, bottled water, gefilte fish, chicken cutlets, kugels, assorted salads, cakes, cold cuts, soups, as well as cold cereals and other items for your children. There are dozens of people arriving there with hundreds more meals being setup.
The distribution is being handled at Shor Yoshuv, 1 Cedar Lawn Avenue, in Lawrence. There is no charge for these meals, and due to the email/cell breakdown we ask you to spread this service to anyone who may benefit from receiving these meals. If you know of someone who is unable to drive to get these meals, please let us know and we will have it delivered.
If anyone in Bayswater requires, please go to the Young Israel of Bayswater where there is also distribution taking place at the headquarters of the RCSP.”

Please read the following few final updates regarding shabbos plans for this weekend. We believe you will find this information both helpful and useful as shabbos approaches.

“From Achiezer Community Resource Center
1)Gasoline Update:
We are tremendously appreciative to Assemblyman Phil Goldfeder who today brought Senator Schumer to our temporary community center to pledge their assistance. Together they are working on a major effort to bring and make available a supply of gasoline to our neighborhood. We should start seeing a major improvement in gas supply before the start of shabbos.
2) Security over shabbos:
We know that many are concerned about the safety of our communities over shabbos. Assemblyman Phil Goldfeder has arranged that there will be a major increase of police presence in the Far Rockaway area over shabbos. A call was also made to the NCPD to arrange increased patrols for the Five Towns area. The RCSP is also hiring additional patrols for the Bayswater area over shabbos.
3)Volunteer help:
We have numerous volunteers available to help you clean out your homes, pump out your basements, and whatever other needs may arise. Call the office in the morning, and we will be happy to set you up.
4)Shelter for shabbos:
If anyone still would like to be put up for shabbos in either Queens in Brooklyn, it is not too late. We have numerous homes available for complete families. Please call our office at  XXX-XXXX, or email XXXXXXX@achiezer.org
5)Financial assistance:
Rabbi XXXXXXX XXXXXX from Agudath Israel of America and a group of community trustees spent hours at our office today preparing this special fund. If anyone would like information about emergency assistance, please email us at XXXXXXXX@achiezer.org, or call us at our hotline for further instructions.
We thank you for your incredible patience, and we will do everything in our power to try and alleviate the stress from what is undoubtedly a most difficult period in your lives.”
“I have power at XXX Grove Ave . you are welcome to power up your devices, and shower (after I am finished). There is a limited amount of refrigeration available since I have a lot of stuff from neighbors, but we can squeeze some more in if necessary.”

I think the foregoing messages illustrate an ideal way for a community to react to a TEOTWAWKI situation. This response was only possible after many years of coordination of the community members. We have our own volunteer ambulance service (the city one takes too long), a volunteer police department, a community patrol, etc.  There was incredible damage throughout most of Far Rockaway and the five towns, and many people’s houses were unlivable, besides not having heat in the early winter. Electricity was a rare luxury in few houses. There was no phone service, cell or land line. I think this should be classified as a TEOTWAWKI situation based on these facts alone. I know that a lot of the people who are reading this are from out of the city area, and are probably thinking that this is normal, should remember that this is a city area where there are not really any communities and most people do not know there neighbors. This would have normally resulted in chaos and mayhem. To show you how this is true, look at the next door community where there is no real community infrastructure in place. A few blocks from where I live is a lower to middle class community, and there was rampant looting, shootings, and burglaries. The local Best Buy, Costco, and strip malls were all looted. Our community was mostly untouched.

As a side point, there were signs in this community that read “you loot, we shoot.” Shows you the value of firearms in this type of situation.
It is worth it to organize and establish a community within your midst just to help each other out in this situation, besides all the obvious benefits. A few ideas are thus:

  1. Create a list of the different streets in your neighborhood
  2. Invite all those who live on those streets to partake in events, house parties, etc.
  3. Create an online classifieds that will bond the community members together. Craigslist is too shady and full of scams for many people to be involved.
  4. Create multiple volunteer organizations
  5. Welcome new neighbors to your area. This usually creates a feeling of togetherness.
  6. Assign communal posts. A few reasons for this: you can keep everything organized, it takes away pressure from you doing everything, and causes people to be more invested in your new community

Letter Re: A Beginner’s Guide to Essential Oils

Jim,
Regarding the recent article “A Beginner’s Guide to Essential Oils”:
 
I was involved in the Essential Oil industry for a while. There are very limited uses for essential oils, however, and this is important, there are so many scammers in essential oil sales. It is very difficult to tell, without actual spectroscopic and chemical testing, if the essential oils are actually pure, what their purity is, if they’ve been diluted, and what they’ve been diluted with. Most essential oil companies buy from farmers or wholesale dealers overseas, pay be wire transfer, and hope reputation will see them to a good product. I worked for one of the better companies, and they did not do any lab verification of product newly arrived from a distiller. Bottle it, ship it out. I had questions.
“Is this lighter color? Is the viscosity off? Does this smell right?”
The answer: “It’s a different batch! Don’t worry about it!”
 
Maybe they know best, but I’m often skeptical of blasé claims. Science exists to tell exactly these things, but the cottage industry of essential oils have no reason to do that. They insist their product is Pure and Natural. And just because a bottle of oils passed exam the first time (years back) doesn’t mean the farmer in Africa or India isn’t diluting it in later bottles, knowing you were dumb enough to buy the con the first time. Like salting a mine to get a better price. There is considerable variation and I would not be surprised at all to test a batch and find something interesting diluting it. It is unregulated, at every stage. Buyer beware.
 
Most of the oils are properly labeled as perfume oils or perfume supplies. They smell good, they get used in perfumes, and that’s fine. Night Blooming Jasmine can be diluted a lot into very nice perfume and has been used as a perfume oil since Babylon was the center of the arts and culture. Frankincense is a piney smell. Myrrh (Oppoponax) is a weaker pine smell, but irritating on the skin so while amusing to own a bit of Biblical History, the two aren’t actually a very nice scent, in my opinion.
 
Many kinds of Rose oil can be used as a perfume base, though many brands of rose oil are frequently synthetic labeled as organic by unscrupulous dealers. In international trade people don’t always tell the truth. And the buyers in that industry are often not the most discerning businessmen, trusting in relationships rather than verify the goods are pure every time before payment. Trust but verify. Or rather verify, don’t trust. And that’s the perfumes and placebos.
 
If you decide to stockpile perfume, essential oils deserve to be kept in a cool dark place, like a box in your wine cellar or basement. Some get better when they age. Perfumes are valuable trade goods, and history shows men do many things for the willing and enthusiastic attention of a woman. This is the good side of the Essential oil industry.
 
Unfortunately, some of the oils sold as “traditional medicines” are actually potent toxins. As in deadly [in sufficient concentration], though not normally considered such because: “They’re natural and that’s the same thing as good!”.
 
Yes, 90% of them are placebos and make the room smell nice, but the other 10% might stop your breathing, cause brain damage (which starts as a strong headache and nosebleed), and should be treated with extreme caution and possibly need an ambulance and Poison Control Center.
 
Holy Basil? Nosebleed and increasingly strong headache.
Sarsaparilla? Toxic, despite being used in root beer for a century and a half. Buy a certain beer manufacturer’s Root Beer (non-alcoholic) and drink three in a week. The third one should make your head ache like a persistent migraine. That’s the toxin. Not their fault. It’s the real extract, not synthetic.
Wintergreen oil? Oops! Toxic. This is a major component of Birch Oil, by the way
Clove Oil? Nerve blocking toxin, that will numb skin applied to. So it is popular in “natural” dentistry, but watch out. In higher doses it is like curare or botulin.
 
The secondary problem of essential oils is dosage. They are meant to be either breathed in or rubbed into the skin. The aerosol dispersal system uses sound waves to raise a mist over the thin film floating over a water bath. This mist is blown out with a fan and wafts around the room. If ventilation is good, you smell the nice or odd smell and its fine, probably. If you’re in a closed room and maybe inhale a bit too much, it gets into your bloodstream in higher concentration. If it’s a placebo, probably no issues other than saturating your clothes and furniture. If it’s a toxin or corrosive/irritant, you might get into respiratory distress or worse. Irritants trigger asthma attacks, even in low doses of passerby or hours later. Sneezing allergy is common with a number of essential oils with no proven effects otherwise.
 
Since practitioners of herbal medicine are not licensed doctors because Essential Oils are not FDA-approved drugs and have highly variable purity, this can be a very risky and unsafe, to say the least. Thankfully, most are placebos so people rarely die from overdosing. I make specific note of the NOT FDA APPROVED part because real doctors have sworn an oath (Hippocrates oath: “first, do no harm.”) An unlicensed herbal medicine clinic doctor may cause your accidental death using drugs with uncertain potency, on patients with unknown allergies with impure sourcing and no serious testing. Sellers of essential oils do zero allergy testing for patients because most sell in new age shops, by phone, or web site, or multi-level marketing so the one taking the blame in court isn’t the maker in many cases. This is the downside of the “wink wink, nudge nudge, say no more!” crowd. Deflecting blame if something goes wrong.
 
Oils meant to be rubbed on are generally used after diluting in a carrier oil like almond oil or jojoba (which is another frequent synthetic sold as natural and pure). One of the popular oils meant for sleeping is actually a strong toxin and an overdose can risk your life. Oops. I imagine people who die using that can’t complain, and since none of these are FDA approved, companies which sell it DO NOT ever refer to it as medicine, nor may they legally describe the effects. It’s all inferred to avoid FDA regulation violation fines. “Oh, this is really RESTFUL, okay! Its calming!” It’s a potent toxin which in small doses is a sedative but large ones may kill you. There are several like this and gushy sales people pretend to not tell you what its supposed to do, according to some culture’s traditions. Unfortunately, modern techniques of steam distillation and stainless steel means the oils are far purer (if the source is actually pure), than ever obtained in stone or bronze age cultures. This means the traditional guidelines aren’t right, to say the least. And you might get way more exposure than they ever used.
 
Some more examples of essential oil effects that aren’t directly stated but inferred with a wink. Quotes to paraphrase their indirect claims:
“Carrot Seed Oil is a natural sunscreen.” Nope. Multiple tests with multiple people and correct concentration in appropriate recommended carrier oil: result was bad sunburns all around.
“Rosemary oil repels mosquitoes.” Nope. They’re attracted to CO2 from your breath. The oil just repels other people.
“Eucalyptus oil prevents colds.” Placebo.
“Marigold oil repels insects when sprayed on plants.” Might work. Don’t get it on you though. Planting marigolds is a known and sometimes effective bug deterrent in gardens. But it doesn’t stop all bugs. Sometimes buying ladybugs and praying mantises is better, since they actively hunt pests down.
“Sunflower Essential Oil improves skin.” Placebo. Oils reduce dryness, generally improve skin anyway. Almond oil is cheap at health food stores.
“Neem oil is an antibiotic and antifungal.” Smells foul enough. The trouble with antibiotics is bacteria adapt and overcome. They’re like the Marine Corps. So it might work once but repeated use often breeds superbugs and most doctors recommend people do not use antibiotic soaps. Neem has similar issues.
 
Citrus oils cause severe sunburns on any contaminated skin exposed to sunlight. They’re called phototoxic. So Orange Oil in cleaning products isn’t just irritating and corrosive, it also gives you sun burn which could become skin cancer. Nice. Same with Lemon Oil, Lime Oil, and Grapefruit Oil. They smell nice though.
 
All in all, having the chance to be exposed to that industry and deal directly with those products, I can’t seriously recommend them. Most are Schumer, some are poisons, others might work once but harm afterwards. Few are proven tested to be what they claim to be so you’re taking a heck of a chance. That’s not a very good success ratio, particularly since they are so expensive. And there is no good reliable guarantee of purity or quality other than some person’s promise. Even if they believe it doesn’t make it true.
 
Focus on the Three Bs instead. And use more traditional means to care for your health. Proper nutrition and exercise. Split some firewood or till the garden or shovel off your driveway. It’s much safer. And probably a far better use of your time and money.
 
Sincerely, – InyoKern

Economics and Investing:

Reader Andre D. sent: Feeding the Bubble: Is the Next Crash Brewing?

Charles Hugh-Smith: A Quick Guide to What’s Fake: Everything That’s Officially Sanctioned. [JWR’s Comment: While I disagree with his viewpoint on

government intervention in the marketplace and on taxation (I’m a laissez faire minimalist-government libertarian), I almost always enjoy reading Charles Hugh-Smith’s piercing observations.]

Over at The Daily Bell: Forced Savings Bait and Switch

Items from The Economatrix:

U.S. October Business Inventories Up 0.7%

Why The Budget Deal Is Bad News For Gold: Pro

Is Your Job About To Be Outsourced By A Computer (The Probability Is 47%)

Military Retirees Feel Betrayed By Congressional Budget Cuts To Pensions

Odds ‘n Sods:

Former Top NSA Official: “We Are Now In A Police State”

   o o o

Worthy of support: Benjamin Wassell Legal Defense Fund

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Here comes the RIF! Reader John E. wrote to mention: Army to cut 4000 captains and majors. The Air Force, too

   o o o

Alan W. recommended this sound advice: Is It a Cold or the Flu? How to Tell the Difference

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Several readers mentioned this: In Texas, Search Warrants Can Now Be Based on a “Prediction of a Future Crime.” Here is a key quote: “The majority’s decision, he writes, means that ‘search warrants may now be based on predictions of the commission of future crimes,’ which is an uncomfortable concept to say the least.”

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Comfort ye, comfort ye my people, saith your God. Speak ye comfortably to Jerusalem, and cry unto her, that her warfare is accomplished, that her iniquity is pardoned: for she hath received of the LORD’s hand double for all her sins.

The voice of him that crieth in the wilderness, Prepare ye the way of the LORD, make straight in the desert a highway for our God.

Every valley shall be exalted, and every mountain and hill shall be made low: and the crooked shall be made straight, and the rough places plain:

And the glory of the LORD shall be revealed, and all flesh shall see it together: for the mouth of the LORD hath spoken it.

The voice said, Cry. And he said, What shall I cry? All flesh is grass, and all the goodliness thereof is as the flower of the field: The grass withereth, the flower fadeth: because the spirit of the LORD bloweth upon it: surely the people is grass. The grass withereth, the flower fadeth: but the word of our God shall stand for ever.

O Zion, that bringest good tidings, get thee up into the high mountain; O Jerusalem, that bringest good tidings, lift up thy voice with strength; lift it up, be not afraid; say unto the cities of Judah, Behold your God!

Behold, the Lord GOD will come with strong hand, and his arm shall rule for him: behold, his reward is with him, and his work before him.

He shall feed his flock like a shepherd: he shall gather the lambs with his arm, and carry them in his bosom, and shall gently lead those that are with young.” – Isaiah 40:1-11 (KJV)

Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 50 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The $9,400+ worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course. (A $1,195 value.) B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), F.) A $300 Gift Certificate from Freeze Dry Guy. G.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. H.) A roll of $10 face value in pre-1965 U.S. 90% silver quarters, courtesy of GoldAndSilverOnline.com. The current value of this roll is at least $225, I.) Both VPN tunnel and DigitalSafe annual subscriptions from Privacy Abroad. They have a combined value of $195. J.) KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304. and K.) APEX Gun Parts is donating a $250 purchase credit.

Second Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. C.) A FloJak EarthStraw “Code Red” 100 foot well pump system (a $500 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. D.) $300 worth of ammo from Patriot Firearms and Munitions. (They also offer a 10% discount for all SurvivalBlog readers with coupon code SVB10P.), E.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials F.) A full set of all 25 of the books published by PrepperPress.com. This is a $250 value, G.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value). H.) EP Lowers, makers of 80% complete fiber composite polymer lowers for the AR-15 rifles is donating a $250 gift certificate, and I.) Autrey’s Armory — specialists in AR-15, M4s, parts and accessories — is donating a $250 gift certificate.

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security., E.) A MURS Dakota Alert Base Station Kit with a retail value of $240 from JRH Enterprises. F.) Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances, and G.) Ambra Le Roy Medical Products in North Carolina is donating a bundle of their traditional wound care and first aid supplies. This assortment has a retail value of $208.

Round 50 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.