Notes for Saturday – July 05, 2014

Today we present another entry for Round 53 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The $11,000+ worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course (a $1,195 value),
  2. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. A $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear,
  5. A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value),
  6. A $300 gift certificate from Freeze Dry Guy,
  7. A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo,
  8. A roll of $10 face value in pre-1965 U.S. 90% silver quarters, courtesy of GoldAndSilverOnline.com, (currently valued at around $180 postpaid),
  9. Both VPN tunnel and DigitalSafe annual subscriptions from Privacy Abroad (a combined value of $195),
  10. KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304,
  11. APEX Gun Parts is donating a $250 purchase credit, and
  12. TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $300 gift certificate.

Second Prize:

  1. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  2. A FloJak EarthStraw “Code Red” 100-foot well pump system (a $500 value), courtesy of FloJak.com,
  3. Acorn Supplies is donating a Deluxe Food Storage Survival Kit with a retail value of $350,
  4. The Ark Instituteis donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package–enough for two families of four, seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate– a $325 retail value,
  5. $300 worth of ammo from Patriot Firearms and Munitions. (They also offer a 10% discount for all SurvivalBlog readers with coupon code SVB10P),
  6. A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials,
  7. Twenty Five books, of the winners choice, of any books published by PrepperPress.com (a $270 value),
  8. Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value),
  9. Dri-Harvestfoods.com in Bozeman, Montana is providing a prize bundle with Beans, Buttermilk Powder, Montana Hard Red Wheat, Drink Mixes, and White Rice, valued at $333,
  10. TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $150 gift certificate,
  11. Organized Prepper is providing a $500 gift certificate, and
  12. RepackBoxis providing a $300 gift certificate to their site.

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  3. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security,
  5. A MURS Dakota Alert Base Station Kit with a retail value of $240 from JRH Enterprises,
  6. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
  7. Ambra Le Roy Medical Products in North Carolina is donating a bundle of their traditional wound care and first aid supplies, with a value of $208, and
  8. SurvivalBased.com is donating a $500 gift certificate to their store.

Round 53 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Negotiating, by KMD

Negotiating is a useful skill in all aspects of life. Negotiating effectively in a SHTF scenario may be the difference between life and death. Whether haggling over the price of your next vehicle, home-repair service, that last box of shells, or something even more important, you want to make sure you walk away from the exchange, and walk away satisfied with the outcome. Below I present some tips to help in this regard.

General Discussion

As with all serious endeavours, careful planning and preparation prior to the affair, can pay healthy dividends. Actively negotiating is typically an exciting, stressful experience. Great value can hang in the balance, and how successful you are at negotiating, can determine if you are successful in obtaining your goal. The best preparations to make for a negotiation is to spend some time thinking about the matter, what you desire for the outcome, what you’re willing to pay to get it, and how the affair might progress. This is merely your opinion, so you should remain flexible. There’s no telling how things will play out, until they play out. Being nimble, agile, and prepared, will give you an advantage over those that are not.

  1. Know what it is you want. Exactly. “I would like
; it would be nice …” are not helpful. Right now, you need to form a very concrete image in your head of what it is you want from this negotiation. What would equal success for you? If you are purchasing (selling) an item, determine what price you would like. Determine first what number you would like, then decide an upper and lower limit. This may take multiple forms– bartered goods, currency, traded labor, or something else. Know your limits before you enter into the negotiation. Also know how firm your limits are. Lifesaving medicine may cost more than you would like to pay for it, or you may not mind helping a neighbor for longer than you planned.

    Spend some time thinking hard about this. You want a firm idea in your mind before entering the stressful act of negotiating. Weigh each option’s merits when you are calm and rational, not when trying to think on your feet. You will be too distracted by the actual negotiations to make a clear decision. Think about multiple possible outcomes beforehand, so you are operating from familiar turf when actively negotiating.

  2. Mentally prepare for a variety of possible outcomes. You may get what you want very easily. You may find negotiations frustrating and difficult. Being mentally prepared for either exchange will give you an advantage, help you to remain calm, and think clearly during a fluid situation.

    Especially in a stressful scenario (TEOTWAWKI), the situation may devolve or escalate very quickly. Your counter party may become hostile, aggressive, or recalcitrant. Negotiations can sour quickly. If you’re swapping some old tools with a neighbor everything is likely to go smoothly, and require little preparation. If, however, you are under duress during the negotiations, it is best to anticipate the worst possible outcome and prepare for it. This means prepare physically (possibly with supplies of extra barter items, such as weapons) as well as mentally (to defend yourself/others, if needed). If the rule of law has broken down, you should assume pleasantries will, as well. You may be fortunate, but it is best to be prepared for a variety of potential scenarios.

  3. Kenny Rogers Rule. Know when to walk away. Sometimes the best solution is to leave the negotiating table. This is especially pertinent whenever stress is high. People often make poor decisions under stress. (This can be used to your advantage as well.) Don’t let this happen to you. Recognize when your position has been weakened and when you need to step away to regroup. Retreat does not equal defeat. Variables may change the dynamics of the situation and require re-evaluation. Don’t let yourself be taken advantage of. Always negotiate on your own terms. Bluffing can backfire. Your position will be significantly weakened if you have to come back to the negotiating table after you have been exposed.
  4. Know thine enemy. Learn as much about your counter party as you can. Information is knowledge; knowledge is power. If you’re negotiating for something in abundance or easily obtained, things will be very different than if you are bartering for scarce and valuable commodities. Knowing the fair market value your counter party places on your/their commodity and having an honest assessment of that, is vital. You will look the fool if haggling over something of little value or use to the other person. We’ve all had the experience of seeing an outrageous price on an item because the seller is attaching some emotional value. Your position during the negotiating will hinge in part on the image you present. If you appear incompetent or irrational, you will be treated accordingly. If you appear calm and calculating, you will be treated differently.

    Know the weaknesses and strengths of your counter party, watch their body language, and analyze their choice of words when discussing matters. They may inadvertently leave clues about their position, emotions, or situation that you can exploit. Think aggressively, but act gently.

  5. Close the deal. Upon reaching an agreement of terms, you should enact the agreement as quickly as possible. Do not allow time for people to change their minds, search for a better offer, or reconsider the deal. If exchanging for an item or product, take (steps towards) possession immediately. Written contracts are of little value outside the rule of law. Ask for your bartered service first. Make this part of the negotiation. (You fix my roof, and then I’ll fix your car.)

Ensuring all parties are satisfied after the deal is a good idea as well. Whether personal, business, work-related, garage sale transactions, or bartering in TEOTWAWK, having both sides happy at the conclusion of the deal is not only a measure of success but an important Post Script should we find ourselves in challenging times. Having a positive reputation and wide trading circle may prove priceless.

Tactics

Not every rule is applicable to every situation. However, there are some techniques that have proven successful in the business world and are useful to everyday negotiations, as well. Some tactics may be combined for increased effectiveness, while some may work against each other in concert. Review these ideas when preparing for your negotiation, and try to choose a few that may work together to generate multiple vectors to approach the negotiation. Try to come up with multiple options to answer different scenarios. If you have thought through some likely scenarios or objections in advance, you will be calmer and better able to think on your feet.

  • You will catch more flies with Honey than with Vinegar: Do you enjoy dealing with someone who is gruff, short-tempered, and crude? Do you leave an establishment with a positive impression after being thanked and given well wishes? You will likely find peaceful negotiations much more fruitful and easier going than acrimonious relations. Not only will this impact future dealings, but the emotional cost to the negotiations should not be discounted. You are more apt to receive concessions if your counter party has a positive opinion of you. Your leverage will go further, your demands seem more reasonable, and your ideas given more weight. There may be times you have to act the loud-mouthed blow-hard, but that should not be your default condition. Engage your party; make small talk; and create an environment for them to relax and feel comfortable in. Then begin your negotiations. Are you likely to charge your friend full-price or entertain a discount?
  • Aim High. Start beyond your desired target, with the expectation of offering some concessions. If you don’t have to, great! Dealerships mark their prices up, expecting to be negotiated down. You should do the same. The worst you can do is get a better price than anticipated.
  • Be realistic. Coming in from far out in left-field, you are more likely to alienate your counter party than get a good deal. If you are offered 10-cents on the fair-dollar-value for your item, are you likely to negotiate further in good faith?
  • Image matters. You are mentally prepared for this exchange, have researched comparable prices from multiple sources, and are serious about this deal. From the moment you enter the room, your body language should show it. From dress to demeanor, looking the part will speak volumes for you. Maybe it’s the gear you bring (to haul your prize home), or a note-sheet with stat’s and pricing written down, or a pre-written check (a great trick for buying a car). Presenting a prepared image shows you mean business. Without saying a word, you say quite a bit.
  • Watch Body Language. Some study may be warranted (and beyond the scope of this article). Most people don’t realize they do it, never mind how to control or use it. Likewise, don’t forget to check yours. Be firm and resolute but not confrontational. Don’t cross your arms over your chest; keep them in your pockets, if you are nervous.
  • Flinch at the first price. This can be done overtly (You want HOW MUCH?!?!?!), or it can be done demurely (ask for them to repeat the number, while writing it down on your aforementioned crib-sheet). The exercise is designed to create question in your counter party’s mind. This will destabilize them, and make them question their offer. Speak little afterwards (appear deep in thought). Maybe you’re comparing their price. Maybe you’re trying to get your head around the number., The point is to make them wonder what you’re thinking. Your initial reaction can give them an idea (if you react loudly), or it may not (if you react calmly), and neither one may be your true feeling. Either way, you are giving yourself a few moments to collect your thoughts and consider your rebuttal, while making their head swim with possibilities. Giving you an advantage!
  • Saying less is more. Often times, the less you say, the better. You are less likely to divulge information to your counter party. People will often prattle on when nervous, and can leak clues to the listener’s advantage. Silence at certain times can be uncomfortable. Use it to your advantage.
  • Ask open ended questions. Let your counter party do the talking. Watch for body language and verbal queues. Phrase your questions so they cannot be easily answered with a “yes” or “no”. Ask “why” or “how”, to give the other person a chance to speak, then analyze their response. “What would you do in my shoes
?”
  • Be clear with your demands. Say “I will accept $100.” Do not say “I would like to get around $100
” If you are flexible you’d take $90, so aim high to give yourself room to negotiate.
  • Ask for a concession when giving one. I’ll take $95, if I could get a couple jars of that blueberry jam you made last week? I can give you that price for cash, but not credit/debit card.
  • Prepare multiple offerings and options to present during negotiations in case your initial offer is rebuffed. Is there something else you can throw in to sweeten the deal, that is of value to your counter party?
  • Add value-added services to your offering to reduce your outlay. A pot-ready chicken is worth more than one you have to butcher yourself. Throw in a coat of paint on that fence for an extra $50 once you’re done fixing it. Would you trade a dozen eggs for a pound of wheat, or 2-dozen for a pound of finely ground flour? There are unlimited combinations when bartering. When you aren’t able to move the price, try to bring other value to the transaction to satisfy both parties amicably.
  • Try to hold back a closer or two. Knowing your counter party helps here, especially if they have a fondness for blueberry jam! If you sense you are close to an agreement, pitch something small at them to close the deal. “I’ll come by and deliver it tonight, help hook it up, and show you how to use it. What do you say, do we have a deal?”
  • Emotion can provide immense leverage. Mentally preparing can help prevent you from being manipulated into making a decision you normally wouldn’t. This can also be applied to your counter party. If you know they have a soft-spot for something, or maybe they don’t particularly like something. There are almost always emotions attached to negotiations. Learning who/what/why about your counter party (#4, know thine enemy) can provide immense opportunities for leverage. However, be cautious, as this can be perceived as a dirty-trick. I do not recommend risking your reputation lightly, however, as we’re discussing potentially extreme situations, I would be negligent for not touching on the subject.

    • Start your negotiations from common ground. This will help endear you to your counter party, and establish the negotiation on friendly territory. It is important to have a solid foundation. Forcing negotiations at a bad time may not work with your chosen tactics, or may be a tactic unto itself.
    • Use the person’s name. Hearing your own name triggers deep emotions.
    • Ask the other person to help you. People (usually) instinctively like helping others.
    • Cooperative vs. Adversarial. Another “Flies and Honey” notion to mention: You want to frame your negotiations in a cooperative manner and paint the situation as mutually beneficial.
    • Show the other side how their needs will be met by the agreement.

      (Now try combining the above five ideas: I could really use your help, David. This problem with the wildlife attacking our farms, since we’re both taking serious losses, needs to be resolved. If we split guard duty on alternate nights, or early/late shifts, we can cover both of our properties and maybe catch that predator?)

    • Avoid Ultimatums. This triggers a “fight-or-flight” response.

Remember that emotions will play a role, but that negotiations are not personal. Be respectful. Try not to take anything personally.

Lastly, I recommend borrowing some tricks from Pennsylvania Avenue– wear your opponent down with circular arguments, deflect blame, and always leave yourself a back-way out. For example, “I know you need it right away, but it’s not my fault. I can’t make that decision. I’ll have to get back to you tomorrow about that price.”

Letter Re: Starting a Garden After TEOTWAWKI

Hugh and Jim,

Thanks for posting this article. In my experience you can add to the rule of three here:

Plant threeof everything that you want to eat– one that won’t grow, one for the critters to steal, and the last one for you to eat. – K.B.

o o o

HJL,

I enjoyed reading the series on starting a garden post event. I’d like to point out that it’s not just a garden post collapse but any agricultural effort.

I’ve raised chickens off and on for my entire life. When I was three years old we lived in the old farmhouse that Mr. Swanson of the chicken dinner fame was renting out on his farm. His big contribution to chicken raising though was chickens that could be sexed at hatching without having to hire people to check their vents. This saves tons of money, as rooster feed and hen feed is different in protein percentages, and when you are raising a few million chickens this adds up quickly.

Where I live now, we have had chickens for fifteen years. So I know a bit about raising chickens, and I know a bit about raising them here. I’ve only lost a couple of chickens over the years to predators, until this year.

I have been fighting with three foxes and a bear that have decided my chickens are their buffet. Now understand my chicken run is completely fenced with chain link fencing six feet high and roofed over. The coop is inside the run. Still, even with all of my experience, I’ve lost four adult hens and nine partially grown chickens in a month. When a black bear wants into a chain link enclosure, it will simply tear the gate off. The chicks are not too smart and stick their heads out of the chain link fencing to see the foxes better, and as a result the foxes bite their heads off.

Needless to say that if this were post collapse I’d be in trouble, and this is with decades of experience.

Make your mistakes now when they will only cause you grief and frustration, not when your family’s life is on the line.

Needless to say I’ve adjusted how I am keeping my flock, starting with chicken wire inside the chain link fencing so the dumb birds don’t get their heads bitten off and making sure I’ve got two roosters to fertilize the eggs rather than just one. – H.D.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Expropriation Is Back – Is Christine Lagarde The Most Dangerous Woman In The World?. – J.W.

o o o

Fear and Rumors Hinder Containment of Ebola Outbreak. – G.P.

o o o

Are We Reading One of the Declaration of Independence’s Most Iconic Lines Wrong? – P.H.

o o o

Around Half the States in the Country are Now Experiencing Drought. – H.L.

o o o

The Military Is Already Using Facebook to Track Your Mood – JBG

Considering that this is how the middle east revolutions started, it has huge implications here. Not just in the government tracking what is going on but also in their ability to influence it.

Hugh’s Quote of the Day:

“Thy word is a lamp unto my feet, and a light unto my path. I have sworn, and I will perform it, that I will keep thy righteous judgments.” – Psalm 119:105 & 106 (KJV)

Notes for Friday – July 04, 2014

Todd Savage (one of of our loyal advertisers and proprietor of Survival Retreat Consulting) has announced a new website where he is advertising retreat properties from both agents and individual property owners, in cooperation with famed relocation expert Joel Skousen. Check it out at StrategicRelocation.com.

o o o

Gun Mag Warehouse is offering a 30 Pack DPMS AR-15 .223/5.56 30 Round Gray Mil Spec Magazines with Magpul Followers for $249.00 plus shipping to SurvivalBlog readers. Use the coupon code “SRBLOG30”.

June In Precious Metals, by Steven Cochran of Gainesville Coins

Welcome to SurvivalBlog’s Precious Metals Month in Review, where we take a look at “the month that was” in precious metals. Each month, we cover the price action of gold and silver and examine the “what” and “why” behind those numbers.

Precious Metals Market Drivers in June

Gold started the month under $1,250 an ounce, and climbed over $70 to above $1,320 by the end of the month. Silver gained steadily throughout June, from under $19 an ounce to over $21. Platinum and palladium saw peaks and valleys, due to the on-again, off-again labor negotiations in South Africa that had halted 40% of global platinum production. Here are some other major market factors for precious metals in June. Spot gold was up $42.80 and COMEX gold was up $46.90 on July 19, the biggest one-day gain since last September. The gold:silver ratio tightened from 67:1 to 62.8:1 overnight.

SOUTH AFRICA MINING STRIKE

The platinum miners’ strike in South Africa is finally over, after five months and $2.25 billion in losses for the companies. Mineworkers lost nearly $1 billion in wages. The three-year agreement will probably not last long, because some of the older mines that were shut down have become so deteriorated that it doesn’t make economic sense to try and restore them to production. Watch for more violence when layoffs are announced, especially as the union leader lied to the workers and told them that there would be no layoffs for three years.

EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

The European Central Bank, desperate to prevent a deflationary “lost decade” like what happened in Japan, announced a cut in their benchmark rate to 0.15%, and announced that they would begin charging banks to store their excess funds at the ECB. This -0.1% rate is the first time a central bank has used negative rates. The idea is to weaken the Euro and force more bank funds in what ECB president Mario Draghi called “the real economy.” The measures only had a temporary effect, since the dollar is still losing international confidence. Investors are moving to the euro and Japanese yen as safe havens in turbulent times, instead of the dollar.

ISLAMIC STATE OF IRAQ AND THE LEVANT (ISIL/ISIS)

The Sunni terrorist group so violent that it was kicked out of Al Queda gathered its forces in June and rampaged over northern and central Iraq, capturing the nation’s second-largest city of Mosul. They looted $425 million in cash and gold from the Iraqi Central Bank branch, as well as numerous private banks. This makes them the richest terrorist operation in the world. They also captured numerous U.S.-built weapons systems, including armed HUMMVs and Blackhawk helicopters. ISIL has been flying the helicopters, apparently manned by former members of the Sunni Iraqi Army under Saddam Hussein. The group recently renamed itself Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, changing its acronym to ISIS. The Shiite-controlled national government of Iraq has carried out a program of revenge against the Sunnis who were in power under Saddam, with the result that many people in northern and western Iraq have sided with ISIL. These developments have seen large increases in the prices of oil and gold, as ISIL has closed export pipelines to Turkey, and fights to take over major Iraqi oil refineries. President Obama has announced that 300 “military advisors” will be sent to Iraq to counsel the Iraqi Army, which fled from ISIL until they reached Baghdad. It isn’t just Iraq and Syria that are seeing terrorist activity. A “commando group” of specially-trained Taliban fighters attacked the international airport in Karachi, Pakistan, with plans to seize hostages and hijack an airliner off the runway as a suicide weapon. The terrorists were stopped by Pakistani Rangers and security forces.

ECONOMIC NEWS IN U.S.

Despite what Wall St banks and the Federal Reserve want you to think, the U.S. economy isn’t as rosy as they say. The U.S. trade deficit ballooned to the largest gap in two years in June, while first quarter GDP was finally reported at -2.9%. The dollar marched in a downward path from June 10th to the end of the month, even while the Middle East is literally being re-shaped before everyone’s eyes. More and more people are warning against the lack of stock market volatility, noting that stocks cannot be a one-way bet forever. Big money is taking notice, as inflows into stock mutual funds is at an 18-month low. As the buyers disappear, who will the sellers sell to when it all comes tumbling down? The same day that Obama announced he was sending military advisors to Iraq, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen described the big increases in food and fuel as “noise” the the Fed was ignoring. Ali Meyer at CNS has the rundown on what you already know about skyrocketing food prices. Did you know that a dollar today only buys 46Âą compared to what it bought just in 2000? Bank savings accounts aren’t even keeping up with inflation. Use bullion to preserve your purchasing power in the long term.

CHINA TROUBLES

China has started towing dredging equipment to the South China Sea, to turn reefs in disputed waters into islands and claim them as sovereign territory. This had led to violent protests in Vietnam, where numerous Chinese were killed, and less violent protests in the Philippines. There’s big trouble for China on the home front, as the revelations that companies used the same stockpiles of copper and iron for multiple bank loans continues to uncover more fraud. Several Chinese banks could be in serious trouble, with no way to collect on massive bad debts. Watch for an increase in Chinese gold demand, once they realize that prices may not be going down any time soon.

REGULATORS CLOSE IN ON MANIPULATORS

British financial regulators are working to expand the LIBOR anti-corruption laws to embrace currency and precious metals trading. This means that those found guilty could be sentenced to up to seven years in prison. Deutsche Bank– Europe’s largest bank– revealed that it is conducting an internal investigation as to whether any of its traders manipulated the London Gold Fix or Silver Fix. This comes in the wake of the first-ever conviction for manipulating the Gold Fix and may be due to Germany’s top financial regulators asking questions to Deutsche Bank that it can’t answer without conducting its own investigation. It was also revealed that UBS– another bank that sets the London Gold Fix– has been conducting their own internal investigations since March. Swiss banking authorities have also been probing possible gold manipulation, and this is probably related to that.

On The Retail Front

The Russian Central Bank reported that it purchased 300,000 ounces of gold in May, possibly as part of the government’s goal of reducing its exposure to the dollar.

Goldman Sachs dropped a bombshell on investors in the largest gold ETF in India, when it changed the rules to allow it to take gold out of the ETF and lease it out for profit. I wonder how much of the “100% backed by gold” ETF reserves are actually paper contracts now? Physical bullion, folks, is stored outside of the banking system. It’s the only way to be sure that you really own it.

The U.S. Mint temporarily ran out of the 5 oz silver America the Beautiful Shenandoah National Park coins on June 23, noting that production was continuing and they would be available again soon.

Market Buzz

The CPM Group says that there will be a world-record shortage of platinum this year, with an 814,000 oz shortfall just for industrial use. This doesn’t count investor demand for physical platinum and through ETFs.

The South China Morning Post has this cautionary tale of making sure that you know who you’re buying from. A Chinese businessman bought 998 one-kilogram gold bars from Ghana; when the shipment arrived in Hong Kong, the crates were full of fakes!

James Rickards asks if we’re about to see the stagflation of 1973 all over again, in this popular article making the rounds: “Connecting the Dots in the Global Mosaic”. Regarding Yellen’s description of accelerating inflation as just “noise”, Rickards posted on Twitter: “On the way from 1% to 9% inflation will hit 3%. When it does #Fed will declare ‘victory‘. Then recall Bush #MissionAccomplished sign & chaos”

Marc Farber predicts a stock market crash within the next 12 months that will equal, or exceed, the 1987 crash.

“This year, for sure—maybe from a higher diving board—the S&P will drop 20 percent,” Faber said, adding: “I think, rather, 30 percent. Who knows. But all I’m saying is that it’s not a very good time, right now, to buy stocks.”

Charles Oliver at Sprott Globalsays that tapering is good for gold, as it means the Fed thinks the banks are healthy enough to survive without QE. He says to watch inflation, which is starting to pick up, scare the $2.5 trillion in excess funds the banks are keeping at the Fed, into the open market. As soon as it looks like the banks can earn more than the 0.25% they are getting at the Fed, they will start pulling that money out and putting it to work. That will increase the velocity of money and fuel more inflation:

“The Fed’s reduction of QE, which they have reduced from $85 billion to $35 billion per month would intuitively be negative for gold. But this also indicates that banks are becoming healthier, which could mean they will begin to push money out into the broad economy. The velocity of money could pick up as a result.

“The 70s were a classic example where banks– and companies– felt shaky about the economy overall, so they held onto cash at first. But when they got a whiff of inflation, they quickly looked for ways to spend that cash. Rising nominal prices made it a good idea to buy things right away – you would be paid to hold onto those things, such as real estate or oil, because their price was rising. This caused a vicious cycle with the U.S. dollar losing value.”

Looking Ahead

Spiking oil prices may delay a relaxation of India’s gold import restrictions, to prevent their trade deficit from exploding again. Oil is India’s #1 import, and gold is #2. This may be offset by increased safe haven demand due to Mideast violence, and as the Chinese seek to hedge themselves against banking and “financial entity” collapses.

Gold prices are now at their slowest part of the year, and still prices have gone up $70 this month. It will be interesting to see what happens come August, when things start taking off.

Even though both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are both doing everything they can to make their currencies cheaper, the sickly U.S. dollar continues to drop, even as the Fed cuts stimulus. Add to that the fact that the dollar seems to have lost all safe haven appeal, and we should prepare for higher prices as the greenback devalues more.

China makes another move to become the new center of the global gold market, as the Shanghai Gold Exchange announces that it will introduce gold futures contracts in September.

As a final warning this month, ESPECIALLY if you live in Georgia, states are now reducing the amount of time until they can seize “dormant” bank accounts and safe deposit boxes. California takes your money if the account has not been used for three years, and Georgia will seize your bank assets after ONE year! This means that if you or Granny have a safe deposit box or checking account set aside for a “rainy day”, you better check on it. The state may have confiscated it, and they won’t give it back! This is yet one more reason to hold your gold or silver outside the banking system.

Letter Re: Harvest Right Freeze Dryer

Dear Mr. Latimer,

Thank you for your in-depth review of the Harvest Right Freeze Dryer.

You mentioned in Part 3, Operation, Section 6 “Working with Trays”, first sentence that you “used both the aluminum trays and the stainless steel ones”.

I checked the Harvest Right website and found no stainless trays available for purchase and I have only the aluminum trays.

My question is: Where did you get the Stainless Steel Trays? I have the Harvest Right unit prior to your review and would like to purchase the stainless tray for my unit as well.

I don’t like aluminum for food use either and would like to make this correction to my set-up.

Thank you for your input and referral as to how to purchase the SS trays. – L.V.

Hugh Replies: I spoke with Harvest Right and they stated that they would get those trays listed on their website. In the meantime, you can contact the person you bought the freeze dryer from, or you can call the company directly at 801-386-8960 and they will take the order over the phone.

Odds ‘n Sods:

South St. Paul Beef Plant Temporarily Closing, 300 Jobs Affected – E.B.

It’s not just the 300 workers who will be affected either. It doesn’t take much to make the leap from “shortage of cattle” to “higher prices” at the market.

o o o

Uncomfortable Independence Day Questions – T.P.

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How Fast Food Providers Beat Inflation – Add Wood Pulp To Burgers – RBS

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The Facebook Manipulation Study’s Mysterious Connection to the Military – G.P.

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IRS policy that targeted political groups also aimed at open source projects – At the same time, it was revealed that the NSA has targeted readers of the “Linux Journal”, a long time respected Linux periodical, calling them “extremists”.

Hugh’s Quote of the Day:

“It took about 150 years, starting with a Bill of Rights that reserved to the states and the people all powers not explicitly delegated to the federal government, to produce a Supreme Court willing to rule that growing corn to feed to your own hogs is interstate commerce and can therefore be regulated by Congress.” – David Friedman

Notes for Thursday – July 03, 2014

Today we present another entry for Round 53 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The $11,000+ worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course (a $1,195 value),
  2. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. A $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear,
  5. A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value),
  6. A $300 gift certificate from Freeze Dry Guy,
  7. A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo,
  8. A roll of $10 face value in pre-1965 U.S. 90% silver quarters, courtesy of GoldAndSilverOnline.com, (currently valued at around $180 postpaid),
  9. Both VPN tunnel and DigitalSafe annual subscriptions from Privacy Abroad (a combined value of $195),
  10. KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304,
  11. APEX Gun Parts is donating a $250 purchase credit, and
  12. TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $300 gift certificate.

Second Prize:

  1. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  2. A FloJak EarthStraw “Code Red” 100-foot well pump system (a $500 value), courtesy of FloJak.com,
  3. Acorn Supplies is donating a Deluxe Food Storage Survival Kit with a retail value of $350,
  4. The Ark Instituteis donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package–enough for two families of four, seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate– a $325 retail value,
  5. $300 worth of ammo from Patriot Firearms and Munitions. (They also offer a 10% discount for all SurvivalBlog readers with coupon code SVB10P),
  6. A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials,
  7. Twenty Five books, of the winners choice, of any books published by PrepperPress.com (a $270 value),
  8. Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value),
  9. Dri-Harvestfoods.com in Bozeman, Montana is providing a prize bundle with Beans, Buttermilk Powder, Montana Hard Red Wheat, Drink Mixes, and White Rice, valued at $333,
  10. TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $150 gift certificate,
  11. Organized Prepper is providing a $500 gift certificate, and
  12. RepackBoxis providing a $300 gift certificate to their site.

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  3. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security,
  5. A MURS Dakota Alert Base Station Kit with a retail value of $240 from JRH Enterprises,
  6. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
  7. Ambra Le Roy Medical Products in North Carolina is donating a bundle of their traditional wound care and first aid supplies, with a value of $208, and
  8. SurvivalBased.com is donating a $500 gift certificate to their store.

Round 53 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

So You Think Starting a Garden Will Be Easy After TEOTWAWKI, by Dr. Prepper – Part 3

In Part 1 of this series, I discussed the preparation of a survival garden where grass used to be, amending the existing soil with compost, and the creation of rows or raised beds. In Part 2, I discussed the construction of an eight foot tall fence and gate with the intent of keeping out varmints. Specifically, and perhaps strangely to some readers, no mention has been made yet as to WHAT should be planted in the garden or how much and why. This is because many who are not familiar with subsistence gardening may be surprised at the true facts of growing adequate calories for consumption.

Calories Needed for Sustenance and Typical Garden Vegetables

Most typical vegetable gardeners, or those families that benefit from the labors of a vegetable gardener, immediately think of salads– nice, fresh lettuce in various flavors and textures; ripe, juicy tomatoes; crisp cucumbers; celery; and some may also think of fresh peas and green beans, too. It all sounds wonderful. In fact, nobody appreciates a nice fresh salad with all the trimmings fresh from my garden more than me. The main course frequently is an afterthought for me, but there is an unfortunate and unpleasant fact that must be addressed if ALL there is to eat is salad vegetables– YOU WILL EVENTUALLY STARVE. It is simply not possible to consistently get enough calories from salads alone.

Most experts agree that an average person needs at least 2,000 calories per day. This may not be optimal, and if you are doing heavy labor, this would certainly be much less than optimal. Let’s assume it is a starting point. So in order to ingest that many calories, you need calorie-dense foods. If there are no animal meats or fats, this leaves only a few vegetable groups that qualify. Such higher calorie choices should be high-yielding, relatively nutritious, able to be stored for the future, and self-propagating with seeds or other reliable methods of starting anew. In my opinion this leaves the following staples: dried beans, grains or corn, potatoes, and hard squashes. Those familiar with the prepper/survival mindset will immediately recognize the “three sisters” of the Native American lore– corn, beans, and squash. Potatoes are added since they are also high calorie starches that are relatively easy to plant and store well.

Now of course, no one would recommend that ONLY these vegetables be grown. All other vegetables should also be grown, in as many varieties as you can find space for, with proper planning to can and preserve as much as possible, but again, for survival purposes, you should grow these four to get enough calories in your system.

How Much of Each to Grow?

If you assume the following facts:

  • One pound of beans = ~2000 calories, one 50 foot row produces 5 pounds of dried beans.
  • One pound of corn = ~ 1800 calories, one 50 foot row produces 10 pounds of dried corn.
  • One pound of hard squash = ~ 250 calories, one 50 foot row of produces 175 pounds of squash
  • One Pound of potatoes = ~450 calories, one 50 foot row produces 75 pounds of potatoes

Divided out equally as your only diet, for an entire year, you would need the following for one person:

  • Beans – 5 fifty foot rows
  • Corn – 3 fifty foot rows
  • Squash – 8 fifty foot rows
  • Potatoes – 3 fifty foot rows

Assuming one fifty foot row is 3 feet wide with a 2 foot aisle, that comes to in total in excess of 4,000 square feet of garden (that’s a 63’ by 63’ plot) needed for growing the caloric needs of just ONE person. Start multiplying accordingly by the number of members in your family or group and you start to see the magnitude of what is needed for a true survival-type garden. It is quite possible that you may need one-half to two-thirds of an ACRE to feed yourselves. Also, to reiterate, this is based on providing a minimal diet of 2,000 calories per day, which is not a whole lot of reserve for exertion or stress, and this estimate does not allow at all for crop failure or rotation needs, so you really should plan for a larger garden.

The Good News Is 


While it may seem overwhelming, believe it or not, all of this was just to help point out your true gardening needs. If you plan to rely on a garden for sustenance, because many may not see the need of a large garden due to the erroneous notion of “It’s only the four of us”. Also, yes, we all have dealt with the overeager gardener who planted too many broccoli (or squash) plants, and then annoyed everyone by trying to give the excess away, but YOU will be planting vegetables that are able to be stored for the winter months, so there are no worries about annoying anybody with your “excess.” Once you are aware of what you need, NOW you can start planning correctly and getting it done. Believe it or not, the difference between constructing a small garden right vs. a larger one is only a matter of scale. You will need the same equipment, just run them a little longer. You will get the same seeds, just plant a few more. You will build the same type of fence, just a little larger. You will still need to water and weed, just a little longer. You may still be able to do it alone, or you can get everyone to pitch in and help. As the Nike ad goes: Just Do It.

Here are some specifics about the staples:

Corn

Corn is easily grown in most areas of the country. While everyone starts salivating at the thought of nice, fresh, sweet corn on the cob dripping in butter (and feel free to grow some of this sweet corn as well), the corn from the above example is called field, dent or flint corn. It is intended to be dried on the stalk and then harvested as dry kernels to be made into meal or flour. Get open-pollinated (OP) varieties, listed as heirloom or OP in the catalogs. As corn is pollinated by the wind through the corn silks, corn needs to be tightly spaced in the same area (i.e. no leaving empty or differently planted rows between your corn rows.) The whole kernel of field corn can be stored dry, unrefrigerated, in buckets, if you prefer, with oxygen absorbers, et cetera. It should be ground fresh as needed for flours and corn meal, as it will quickly spoil once ground.

You are not limited to corn as your only grain. If you want to try your hand at growing wheat, buckwheat, quinoa, amaranth, `or oats as replacement or additional grains, go for it. I have not tried these personally, but I have read several accounts, even on SurvivalBlog, on how best to do it. Many say they just use an available field without cultivation, but I’ve never seen it done.

Potatoes

Potatoes are rather easy to grow. You need to start with seed potatoes, which are normal potatoes that have grown “eyes” and have been cut into small pieces with at least one eye (two is better) in each piece. Let the cut pieces dry for a day or two, and then put them all in a trench in your garden row about 12 inches apart for each piece. Cover with dirt or compost and wait for the leaves to appear. Once the plant seems to be growing well above ground, you need to “hill” the potatoes vines by pushing dirt on top of the plant until only the top leaves are exposed. Keep doing this every few weeks until the vines start to die. Then dig up the potatoes! Store in a cool place, and they will keep for months. Five pounds of seed potatoes can plant one 50 foot row, which produces up to 75 pounds of potatoes.

Beans

Beans are ridiculously easy to grow. Just plant a dry bean one inch deep, water it, and wait for the plant to grow. There are many, many types of beans. Some are intended to be eaten green only, while others are to only be eaten dry and still others can be eaten both ways. There are beans that grow on bushes (hence their reference as bush beans) and vining beans that will climb poles (hence the name “pole beans”). I prefer the bush beans because there is less maintenance. For green beans, pick them when they are ripe and plump, then cook and eat them and can or freeze the extra. For dry beans, wait for the beans to dry in the pod on the plant. The pod will be crispy dry, and the beans may rattle. I pull up the whole bush, put it in a bag, and then beat and smash the bag until all the beans are separated from the pods. I then shake the contents of the whole bag slowly in front of a box fan with a large pan on the ground. The beans drop whole into the pan, while the chaff and sticks blow away into the yard. Beans may be stored dry in a bag or bucket. I usually freeze each batch for two days to kill any possible bugs that might be hiding inside before sealing in a bucket with oxygen absorbers.

Squash

Squash is another easy “set it and forget it” plant. Good types that I like are Waltham Butternut, Acorn squash, and Patty Pan squash. You want winter squash, not summer squash, like crookneck yellow squash and zucchini. You don’t plant winter squash in the winter; you harvest it when it’s ripe and then STORE them in the winter, as they grow very hard shells. They are very easy to bake in an oven, or you can peel off the rind and boil the flesh. Just plant the seeds in a hill, thin out to the best two or three plants and then wait for the squash to start growing. You can accelerate production by artificially pollinating the flowers with a small paintbrush or tooth brush for larger yields. They tend to spread out so if space is at a premium consider training them up trellises to save on ground space. Once ripe, harvest, and store carefully in a cool place.

In Conclusion

I hope I have helped some people dispel some notions of just waiting for the balloon to go up before they start preparing for growing their own food. Also, I hope a it has become quite clear that a little postage stamp yard is not going to cut it. You will need some serious real estate to grow enough food for your family, and you should consider the higher calorie foods, like corn, beans, squash, and potatoes. While this post may make growing the staples sound easy, gardening is a skill like any other that takes practice and repetition. You must allow for the mistakes that will happen so they don’t occur when you can’t afford them. Start your garden NOW, while there is still time to get the needed materials, practice the skills, and make mistakes, and you may accidentally find yourself enjoying a fulfilling activity that is healthy and practical, and find your blood pressure and weight dropping. Also, you get to eat the best, healthiest, pesticide-free, GMO-free, tastiest vegetables and fruits you ever tasted, while food availability gets more and more precarious by the day.

Letter Re: Confiscation of Stored Foods

Hi Hugh,

I really enjoy the blog. There is a lot of good info. You mentioned about losing weight during TSHTF along with everyone else. I and others in my group have bought used clothing in bigger sizes than we wear now. I have worn this clothing around people who haven’t seen me in awhile. All of them commented on how much weight I had lost. Some even asked if I had been sick. In truth, I was the same size I was before. The clothes made it appear I had dropped 20-30 pounds. Perception goes a long way. I just re-enforced their observations. “Thanks for noticing I lost weight. Yes, I was sick.” I even joked I needed to buy new clothes now. My wife said with a little makeup under my eyes people would of thought I was very sick or even dying. People jump to conclusions in a few seconds. Just make sure it’s the conclusion you want them to arrive at. Just another layer to my operational security. – J.T.