Economics and Investing:

The “Dead-Cat-Bounce”: That Dead Cat Is Truly Dead; And That Bounce Is Truly Over… “Nihilo Ex Nihilo” – GJM

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Record 94 Million Americans Not In The Labor Force; Participation Rate Lowest Since 1977 – B.B.

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Items from Mr. Econocobas:

Central Banks Can’t Save the Markets From a Crash. They Shouldn’t Even Try – The first section of this is pretty good, but after that it starts venturing off topic.

Dow Dumps 600 Points From Last Friday’s Panic-Buying Ramp, Drops 10% Year-To-Date

Chart Of The Day: Since 12/2007—— 1.5 Million More Waiters/Bartenders, 1.4 Million Fewer Mfg. Jobs

Odds ‘n Sods:

Anyone near Dallas/Fort Worth might have an interest in an event hosted by the Mises Instititue: Lew Rockwell, Tom Woods, Tom DiLorenzo, and Jeff Deist will discuss Against PC: Creating a Culture of Liberty.

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FBI, DEA and others will now have to get a warrant to use stingrays – G.G.

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For pilots: TCAS, ADS-B Unreliable in Southeast U.S. Beginning Sept. 2 – T.P.

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Gov’t Accuses Company Of Discrimination Over Employees Having To Prove Citizenship Status – P.M.

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ISIS smuggler: ‘We will use refugee crisis to infiltrate West’ – D.S.

Hugh’s Quote of the Day:

“Ye stand this day all of you before the Lord your God; your captains of your tribes, your elders, and your officers, with all the men of Israel, your little ones, your wives, and thy stranger that is in thy camp, from the hewer of thy wood unto the drawer of thy water: that thou shouldest enter into covenant with the Lord thy God, and into his oath, which the Lord thy God maketh with thee this day: that he may establish thee to day for a people unto himself, and that he may be unto thee a God, as he hath said unto thee, and as he hath sworn unto thy fathers, to Abraham, to Isaac, and to Jacob.” Deuteronomy 29:10-13 (KJV)

Notes for Friday – September 04, 2015

September 4, 1862 is the fateful day that General Lee invaded the North with 50,000 troops. Historians will banter back and forth about the real reasons for the Civil War, but we will probably never fully understand. It is my personal belief that General Lee was gambling on a quick offensive because the South did not have the resources for a prolonged war. Whatever the case was, President Abraham Lincoln trampled the Constitution and created the foundation for the “Big Brother” government we have today.

Medical Bartering, by Cynthia J. Koelker, MD

Medical bartering is as old as the hills, yet still alive today. Though you may not have encountered medical bartering in your own community, a quick web search will reveal that the days of paying your doctor with chickens continue into the 21st century.

Of course, when the grid goes down or our currency collapses, you’ll need to find another method of payment for everything. On the other end, with store shelves empty, medical supplies may become a valuable medium of exchange.

When stocking up on medical items for your family, it’s a great idea to purchase extra, currently inexpensive supplies for others who may want or need them in times of crisis.

Items to consider for bartering include OTC medications and supplies, as well as medical skills. Under current law, bartering for prescription medication is not legal (unless you are a licensed medical professional).

Bartering may occur person-to-person or via an exchange involving a third party. If you have a survival group, a written plan is highly advisable, especially regarding the ethics involved.

For example:

  • Is the single case of formula you have on hand for your grandchild worth only the $20 you paid for it or worth a $500 rifle to the parents of a starving child? Would such a trade be ethical (as it seems to be in today’s medical system)?
  • A nickel’s worth of antihistamine may help your runny nose today, but how much would you pay if your toddler were covered head-to-toe with hives?
  • If a nurse currently receives $15 to administer a $5 bag of IV fluid, will you charge someone the hundreds of dollars a hospital would charge?
  • Or if you ever had a bad case of gout, what would you pay for a dollar’s worth of naproxen?

Having a written policy with room for flexibility and generosity may prevent disagreements at a later date when fear comes into play.

Many over-the-counter drugs are extremely powerful, especially the ones that were by prescription only not many years ago. Here is a short list of OTC drugs potentially useful for future barter:

  1. Tylenol – primarily for pain, but also fever
  2. Anti-inflammatory drugs (ibuprofen, naproxen, aspirin) – for pain, fever, inflammation, sprains, arthritis, gout
  3. Meclizine – for nausea, vomiting, and vertigo; also may help anxiety
  4. Loperamide – for diarrhea
  5. Diphenhydramine – for allergies, hives, itching, and insomnia; also may help anxiety
  6. Non-sedating antihistamines (cetirizine, loratadine) – for allergies, hives, itching
  7. Acid-relievers (ranitidine, omeprazole, lansoprazole) – for heartburn, ulcers/gastritis
  8. Asthmanefrin – for asthma and possibly allergic reactions
  9. Bacitracin – for superficial skin infections and prevention of infection
  10. Hydrocortisone cream – for red, itchy rashes
  11. Antifungal creams (clotrimazole, Lamisil) – for athlete’s foot, ringworm, other fungal diseases
  12. Multi-vitamins– especially useful for prolonged malnutrition

Insulin is more expensive, but certain formulations require no prescription and may save a diabetic’s life. Fish antibiotics are intended for aquarium use but some are the same as human antibiotics.

It is not legal to share a prescription medication, but leftover antibiotics, steroids, and pain pills may be worth their weight in gold if pharmacies are empty. To comply with the law, it may be best to recruit a physician, pharmacist, or dentist for your group who could then prescribe, sell, or dispense any available prescription medication, or act as a professional third party for a bartering transaction.

Other OTC medical supplies are useful barter items including:

  1. Pregnancy tests
  2. Condoms and spermicide
  3. Bandages, Band-Aids, medical tape, gauze
  4. Wound cleaning supplies (soap, Hibiclens, bottled water)
  5. Wound closure strips
  6. Laceration trays
  7. Diabetic testing supplies
  8. Ice packs and hot water bottles
  9. Ace wraps and Coban
  10. Rehydration solution
  11. IV administration kits
  12. Dental repair kit
  13. Oil of clove
  14. Crutches, walkers, wheelchairs
  15. Casting supplies (plaster, stockinette, padding)
  16. Urine test strips
  17. Strep test kits
  18. Reading glasses
  19. Hearing aid batteries
  20. Arm slings

Medical skills are at least as vital as other work (chopping wood, gardening, animal husbandry, defense, et cetera). Whether medical care should be given away without charge should be discussed before the need arises. A balance of paid care and perhaps a tithe of unpaid care is one option. Keep in mind that, in general, what people don’t pay for, they don’t value. Any seasoned medical professional can confirm this is true, and it is often difficult to decide when to “pay it forward”. Loving your neighbor as yourself does not necessarily mean giving everything away (and thus making your own family a burden on society).

Although it’s doubtful you can make a living off medical bartering in times of crisis, having extra medical supplies or skills to exchange may allow you to acquire items you’ve forgotten or could not previously afford, or are running low on (food perhaps). In my Survival Medicine classes I emphasize such skills, to help your own family and community should there be no doctor and you’re truly on your own.

– Cynthia J. Koelker, MD

Letter: Thoughts for Frozen Food Storage for SHTF

Tonight I ate a rib eye steak that was a little over two years old. It was tender, juicy, and just as good as the day I bought it. It was vacuum packed and frozen at -14 to 0 degrees for the entire time. I see no reason to believe that the steak would not be just as palatable for at least another year. I believe this to be a viable consideration for food storage for, if not the long term, an intermediate period for SHTF situations.

If this is to be considered for a food source for a few years, what about EMP issues? Several years ago, I bought a top of the line 20 cubic foot upright freezer with all the bells and whistles. About a year ago, it began intermittently shutting off and the temperature inside got dangerously close to thawing out. A hurried call to an appliance repairman revealed that the entire electronic control unit can be unplugged from the front of the unit and replaced within seconds and that this cured the problem. After fixing the original problem, I ordered a second control unit, which is now wrapped in foil and has been placed in a metal can along with other valuable items.

About two years ago, I bought a second 20 cubic foot freezer. This time, I special ordered a basic, no frills model. It consumes exactly the same amount of power (140 watts after start up) and contains no electronic circuitry. The schematic diagram shows that the unit contains only switches, temperature sensors, a thermostat and, of course, the compressor. This freezer works just as well as the older freezer and should be as close to EMP proof as possible as all current information indicates that microprocessors are the items at risk during an EMP.

What about power interruptions? My long-term testing of both freezers shows that my Honda EU2000i inverter generator will keep both freezers adequately cold (as well as running several other items simultaneously including the refrigerator/freezer) with about 2½ hours per day of usage. With the Honda, this equates to about 1/3 gallon of fuel per day. Yes, fuel availability could be an issue, but if an EMP event renders most vehicles inoperable, fuel might be somewhat available from abandoned vehicles. Regardless, my RV contains 55 gallons of gas, the SUV 30 gallons, and I have 60 gallons in storage. The stored gas is stabilized with a commercial fuel stabilizer and is rotated through the vehicles as is convenient. At 1/3 gallon per day, I anticipate a minimum of one year of food available from the freezers. Natural gas tends to be more reliable then electricity during an emergency, and natural gas and propane conversions are available for under $200 for Honda and similar generators.

Some of you may have already considered this method of providing nutrition during a crisis, but for those of you who may have not “done the math”, you may find this of value and something that you can implement concurrently with your other long-term storage plans. If you are considering the purchase of a refrigerator or freezer, look closely at the “no frills” models and get the assistance, if needed, of a good service technician to determine what, if any, electronics the unit may contain.

As an aside, I do rotate our food, but I also keep back some food to let it age so I can determine the limits of my storage methods. The steak mentioned above was bought at Costco for $7.95 per pound and it is now $11.95 as I write this. Prepping does pay. I ate the steak with a can of corn that I bought in 2010 and with a “best by” date of September, 2011. Like the steak, it was as if I had bought it yesterday. I’ll keep you posted on the meat as time goes on, assuming we are still here.

Be safe and prep as if your life depended on it. – G.D.

Notes for Thursday – September 03, 2015

On September 3, 1752, the American Colonies officially adopted the Gregorian calendar, and it immediately became September the 14th.

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During the month of September, Ready Made Resources will be offering Mountain House Foods at 35-50% off. Make sure you visit their web site if you are thinking of topping off your storage.

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This week we welcome our newest advertiser: DBArms.com. They assemble and market some of the very best Individual First Aid Kits (IFAKs), medic bags, and trauma kits on the market. Be sure to check out their web site. If all that you presently own is a “boo-boo” first aid kit that doesn’t have much more than band-aids, then it is high time for you to acquire a serious trauma kit. And of course get the training to go along with it. (Short of taking formal EMT training, I highly recommend the inexpensive training offered by the Western Rifle Shooter’s Association, and by Dr. Bones & Nurse Amy.)

August In Precious Metals, by Steven Cochran of Gainesville Coins

Welcome to SurvivalBlog’s Precious Metals Month in Review, by Steven Cochran of Gainesville Coins. Every month we take a look at “the month that was” in precious metals, covering the price action of gold and examine the “what” and “why” behind those numbers.

Volatilitywas the name of the game in August, as a surprise currency devaluation by China spooked investors into realizing that the Communist government in Beijing likely was lying about the state of their economy. This ignited a global meltdown in stocks, the likes of which have not been seen since the height of the financial crisis.

Gold started the month struggling near multi-month lows, under $1,100 an ounce but rose on safe haven bids as the month wore on briefly reaching the $1,170 mark at the height of the stock market meltdown. Gold got another boost at the end of the month, after falling on a stock rally, as equities were unable to hang on to gains.

Precious Metals Market Drivers in August

CHINA SYNDROME

The Chinese government shocked world markets on the 11th, when it suddenly devalued the renminbi (yuan) by 2% and pledged to let it move according to market forces. Stocks worldwide sold off, and the currencies of nations that supply China with raw goods were hit hard. Gold jumped $15 on the news. Beijing didn’t keep its promise of a “free market” in currencies for long, as it began massive direct intervention by selling U.S. dollars and buying yuan to stop the collapse of its currency.

The devaluation of the yuan has more people receptive to the idea that the Chinese economy is in far worse shape than the government will admit. The only reason the Shanghai stock market hadn’t completely come apart is that the government is forcing state-owned entities to buy stocks. August 24 was called “Black Monday” by the press, as the Shanghai composite lost 8.5% and dragged the rest of the world’s stock markets down with it. By Wednesday, massive direct intervention by the Chinese government when stocks fell too much had the index solidly in positive territory, and investors returned to stocks in the belief that the government would not let the market collapse.

GLOBAL STOCK ROUT

Stocks in the U.S. and Europe saw the worst days since the height of the financial crisis in the wake of China’s yuan devaluation and accelerating stock market meltdown. American households saw $1.8 trillion of wealth go up in smoke in the stock market. Many “mom and pop” investors saw the writing on the wall and followed the big equity firms out of the market just in time. Bloomberg notes that individual investors pulled out of both stock and bond mutual funds in July, escaping the crash in August. $6.5 billion was taken out of stock mutual funds, and $8.4 billion was taken out of bond mutual funds. This is the first time since 2008 that small investors have fled the market completely. Usually, when they cash out of stock mutual funds, they move to bonds.

FED POLICY

Perhaps even more than the big trouble in China, the uncertainty over Fed interest rate policy shaped the economic landscape in August. The Fed seems to have adopted a policy outside of their dual mandate of controlled inflation and full employment and now consider making sure wealthy investors don’t lose money in the stock market as their goal. Whenever the market gets jittery over a rate hike, one of the Fed officials comes out and says something to rescue stocks.

Some pundits, notably James Rickards and Peter Schiff, are betting that not only will there be no rate increase with inflation near zero and stocks selling off, but that the Fed will actually go back to quantitative easing – “printing money”. Albert Edwards, an analyst at Societe Generale, agrees, saying “you’ll hear the printing presses from Mars.”

After the big losses on Wall St in the last part of the month, some in the “alternative financial press” said to watch for the Fed to float a trial balloon regarding QE4. Lo and behold, the next day, Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota said he was in favor of another round of quantitative easing instead of raising interest rates (cue spooky music).

Speaking of quantitative easing and the trillions of tax dollars the Fed gave to Wall St. banks, research by the St. Louis Federal Reserve shows no evidence that QE helped the economy.

On The Retail Front

The Greek crisis, which resulted in austerity measures being passed by Athens and the government losing its majority, has led to snap elections being called for September 20th.

It also led to a huge increase in physical gold purchases in Europe. Gold refiner Degussa reported that German gold buying increased by 50% in the first half of the year.

American Silver Eagle sales for August topped four million ounces, following an extremely strong July. ASE sales for the year are already over 31 million coins.

Market Buzz

China surprised global markets (in a good way, this time) by updating their official gold reserves for the second month in a row. Prior to last month, the latest government numbers were from 2009. China’s official gold reserves grew by 19 metric tonnes in July, to 1,677 metric tonnes. This makes China #5 in the world for gold reserves and the largest non-Western gold reserves in the world. Only the United States, Germany, the International Monetary Fund, and Italy have larger gold reserves.

It isn’t just the Chinese (and Russians) that are bullish on gold. Billionaire hedge fund legend Stan Druckenmiller has placed a huge bet on gold prices rising. Bank of America is joining the mainstream voices declaring that gold is undervalued at $1,100.

Peter Schiff says blame the Fed, not the Chinese, for spooking the stock markets.

Also from Peter Schiff, he says the Chinese are too late to the currency wars with their yuan devaluation, because the Fed will launch QE4 to win the “race to the bottom”.

While not jumping on the “QE4” bandwagon, both Barclays and TD Securities say forget about a rate hike in September; it isn’t happening until March of next year!

Mega-miner GoldCorp (NYSE: GG) just started production at a new $2 billion gold mine in Canada.

In the “Who’d have thought it?” department, the Federal government is returning “most” NORFED dollars it seized in its prosecution of Bernard von NotHaus. For good measure, we get news that *maybe* someone is taking a real look at gold manipulation.

We end this month with a story that once again proves that “all that glitters is not gold”. Hundreds of people in a Chinese city shut traffic down all day, frantically harvesting “gold dust” from a busy street. It turns out that the treasure was really crystalline sulphur!

Letter Re: Fishing Pliers

Good Morning Hugh,

Thank you for your hard work; keep fighting the good fight. Greetings from the great state of Tennessee! I’ve written you for years but from my address in NY. We’ve finally broken free and are speaking w/ our feet. It feels great. We’re renting at the moment, homestead-shopping. Why yes, I have been to the realty-blog, as well!

Regarding the recent post on fishing pliers, I had a great experience with pliers in my trials in the Saltwater Reef-keeping aquarium hobby. Growers of hard coral species (Acropora, Montipora) who propagate frequently use various shapes/sizes of pliers to break fragments off the mother colonies in the tank. Being in saltwater, this naturally presents problems for most metal implements. The fine folks at Sears have solved the expense of this problem with their lifetime warranty on Craftsman tools. One of my fellow hobby enthusiasts had returned scores of them! The manager asked what he used them for on one trip. He explained, and the manager laughed and told him they were in Aisle 12 and to have a nice day! While not ideal in a survival situation, it is one company that stands by the no-hassle lifetime guarantee. So feel free to purchase a fancy-shaped/size/type of pliers or selection of pliers from your local Sears store, and when they get old and rusted and beat up, take them back and get a shiny new one!

Also I wanted to comment regarding the tin-foil safe idea. Foresight protected me from such a mistake, however. The Sentry Corporation has a 1 cu. ft. model that is entirely mechanical, costs a couple hundred bucks, and has served me well. They recently shut down (or are winding down) operations outside Rochester, NY, and are moving the work to Mexico. (Thank you, NAFTA!) I purchased the product when it was U.S.-made, but I have owned it for years, and it’s worth the price of admission. – K.

Economics and Investing:

Stock market too big to fail? I suppose it’s possible that the Fed could start buying specific stocks to keep the market propped up. – P.S.

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?The surging ranks of America’s ultrapoor – G.G.

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Canada officially enters recession – G.G.

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SILVER MARKET OUTBREAK: Surging Physical Demand & Falling Inventories

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Items from Mr. Econocobas:

Why The Federal Reserve Should Be Audited

Video Interview with Greg Hunter : Jeff Berwick-Nothing but Black Swans Ahead

Hugh’s Quote of the Day:

“As long as enough people can be frightened, then all people can be ruled. That is how it works in a democratic system and mass fear becomes the ticket to destroy rights across the board.” – James Bovard