Welcome to SurvivalBlog’s Precious Metals Month in Review, where we take a look at “the month that was” in precious metals. Each month, we cover gold’s performance and silver’s performance and examine the factors that affected the metal prices.
WHAT DID GOLD AND SILVER DO IN NOVEMBER?
The inevitable finally happened: gold and silver had a down month.
Both metals traded slightly lower on November 1st, with silver dipping to $32.40 per troy ounce and gold holding above $2,730/oz. The following week began with modest gains until the wheels fell off on Wednesday, Nov. 6th: gold lost 3% to fall to $2,660/oz and silver shed $1.46 (-4.5%) to $31.16/oz. Despite rebounding on Thursday, Nov. 7th, those gains were swiftly erased the next day. The week spanning from Nov. 11th to Nov. 15th saw the precious metals post losses during five consecutive trading sessions.
Silver and gold managed to stage another rally the following week (Nov. 18th–Nov. 22nd), which lifted silver to $31.24/oz and gold to $2,709/oz. It was actually the best week for gold percentage-wise since October 2023. Yet on Monday, Nov. 25th both metals took another plunge. Gold slumped 3.3% lower to $2,626/oz—its worst single-day session in four years—while silver lost $1 to $30.29/oz.
Silver ended on a positive note, rising to $30.59/oz on the final trading day of the month to cut its losses to about 6% in November. Gold closed at $2,659/oz, roughly 3% lower on the month.
FACTORS AFFECTING GOLD AND SILVER THIS MONTH
There’s no doubt that the presidential election outcome had a short-term impact on the metals markets. The downswing for the precious metals began in earnest the day following the election. It appears that the drop in gold and silver prices are somewhat mirroring their post-election performance from Trump’s victory in 2016 as some safe-haven demand cools off.
Along the same lines, the apparent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon seemed to lessen the geopolitical premium on gold. That may end up being cancelled out by the escalation between Ukraine and Russia—and changes little about the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Yemen.
Some of silver and gold’s decline was “mechanical” in nature. Options on December futures contracts expired on November 25th, and predictably the metals saw steep losses in response. Crude oil also fell 3% the same day for largely the same reasons.
Many commentators have pointed to the optimism about President Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, as another cause of the sell-off in the metals. I remain unconvinced on that count: Bessent is a bit of a goldbug himself, having gone on record saying the metals are in a long-term bull market and that gold is his #1 position in his investment portfolio. He’s even floated the idea of the Treasury Department issuing gold-backed Treasury instruments, echoing Dr. Judy Shelton’s recent suggestion that the U.S. could issue gold-convertible bonds to restore integrity and stability to the monetary system.
The November downturn strikes me as a garden-variety correction for silver and gold after a relentless year of gains.
CENTRAL BANK GOLD PURCHASES
Note to readers: Most data about international gold reserves are delayed by a month. They are not typically reported to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and are instead compiled by private organizations such as the World Gold Council (WGC).
Turkish gold reserves rose 17 tons in October. They are up 72 tons year-to-date, and have reached 600 tons in total.
The Czech National Bank bought 2 tons of gold in October, its 20th straight month of purchases.
Kazakhstan purchased 4 tons of gold in October.
The Reserve Bank of India bought 27 tons of gold in October, its biggest monthly increase since November 2009.
The Kyrgyz Republic (also known as Kyrgyzstan) bought almost 2 tons of gold in October, increasing their gold reserves by about 6 tons so far in 2024.
The National Bank of Poland added 7 tons of gold in October. The Polish central bank’s annual report indicated it plans to buy an additional 170 tons of gold in the coming years.
Russia’s gold reserves surpassed $200 billion in value for the first time ever.
Gold now makes up 18% of global foreign exchange reserves; 25 years ago, that percentage was just 15.9%.
ON THE RETAIL FRONT
U.S. Mint coin sales are still being reported with a lag. At the time of writing, 295,000 Silver Eagles were produced in November and 16,500 Gold Eagle coins were produced, although these numbers are certainly incomplete.
We did get updated data for the partial sales figures from October. Gold Buffalo sales were revised higher from 10,000 ounces to 14,000 ounces. Only 2,000 oz were reported so far in November.
American Gold Eagle mintage numbers were nearly double the initially published total, with 53,000 oz sold in October. Almost 2.5 million Silver Eagles were minted in October, surpassing the revised September figure. Year-to-date silver production is approaching 25 million oz.
Somewhat surprisingly, not a single Platinum Eagle or Palladium Eagle coin has been sold by the mint this year. For context, last year 12,700 oz of platinum were sold in addition to 80,000 oz in 2022. No palladium coins have been produced since 2021.
MARKET BUZZ
Seven different U.S. states passed laws this year to essentially remonetize gold and silver, with some advocating for an end to the Federal Reserve.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange has plans to encourage greater silver trading.
An airport in Hong Kong added 1,000 tons of capacity to its gold vault in an effort to compete with Singapore as a gold storage destination.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has surpassed London as the second-largest gold hub in the world, with $129 billion in gold flows.
The newspaper Asia Times published an op-ed explaining why President Trump should bring back the gold standard.
Demand for silver in China continues to grow.
Vaults at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) added 113 tons of gold in October.
Swiss gold exports rose 8% in October to 101 tons.
The global mine supply of silver will dwindle as industrial uses rise. Overall industrial demand for silver hit a record high in 2024. Meanwhile, the silver supply is in a deficit for the fourth straight year.
The Russian Ministry of Finance unveiled plans to increase its monthly gold purchases, and to add silver to the mix of its strategic reserves.
Following deep cuts to its import duty on precious metals, India saw record-high gold demand during Q3. The country’s gold imports were up to $7 billion in October, after $4 billion of imports in September. Silver imports to India have already blown away their all-time highs set in 2023.
Gold premiums in India also hit their highest in four months
A Colombian cartel has been stealing from a Chinese-owned gold mine. In Mexico, 240 tons of precious metal concentrate were reportedly stolen from Newmont’s Peñasquito mine.
This year, smuggled gold into Turkey is estimated at 50 tons, and various government officials are allegedly involved in the scandal.
UBS expects $2,900 gold in 2025.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT MONTH
The economic calendar may prove favorable to the precious metals, depending on which direction the data swing. It’s a reasonably safe bet that much of the markets’ attention will be trained on the transition in the executive branch and any developments on the geopolitical front.
After the last time Trump took office, the stock market went up for 15 straight months (which was a record). Amid that kind of financial euphoria, if it were to occur again, we could easily see gold fall to $2,500 and silver prices re-test levels below $30, which hasn’t happened since September.
It’s worth noting that silver and gold both remain among the best-performing assets this year. There have only been four years on record where gold has exceeded its 2024 performance, and all of them were in the tumult of the 1970s.