Hi Jim,
Within the last couple of days I have noticed that multiple economic and financial institutions have started to issue global financial crash alerts. For instance:
– Morgan Stanley warns of a ‘catastrophic event’. The point of maximum stress could occur in coming months if the European Central Bank (ECB) starts to raise rates and the Fed backs away from expected tightening. The rates differential “could trigger a ‘catastrophic’ event”.
– The Global Europe Anticipation (LEAP/E2020) team is now convinced that this period will consist for the whole world in a major plunge into the heart of the phase of impact of the global systemic crisis. The upcoming six months are in fact the core of the unfolding crisis. The troubles met in the past 12 months were mere harbingers.
– In its latest quarterly report, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warns that the credit crisis could lead world economies into a crash on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
– The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses major central banks.
You know the risk for a ‘mother of all great depressions’ is real when normally cheerful bankers start to openly warn about a global crisis.
Time to recite the old adage: “The one who panics first wins!” Thanks for publishing a great blog. Regards, – Alain
JWR Replies: Here is one more article to add to your list: Paulson & Co. Says Writedowns May Reach $1.3 Trillion
I have been raising red flags ever since the global credit market collapsed in the summer of 2007. As I’ve mentioned before, credit used to be the lubricant of the global economy, but in recent years credit has become the prime mover of the economy. The nascent recession cum depression could be very, very bad. If you haven’t done so already, get your logistics squared away. And if you don’t already live at your retreat, the vast majority of what you need should be pre-positioned there, muy pronto.