Dear Mr. Rawles,
I fully enjoy your site and have been reading it daily for some time now.Only yesterday did I follow the link to the You Tube video, After Armageddon.
And only yesterday did the question dawn on me: Following any disaster, what percentage of survivors would be forced to leave their homes?
In twenty years of practicing preparedness, I’ve never given the question any thought!
Sure, I am well prepared and sited in a very rural area flush with abundant water, fish and game, mature hardwoods and other natural resources. I’ve a modest farm with large gardens, we can and preserve every year, and are capable of generating electricity without liquid fuels. I’ve ammo and firearms maintenance tools enough for several lifetimes.
Thus, I would never, under any circumstance, consider leaving my home.
Perhaps in some slightly perverse way, I have been looking forward to TEOTWAWKI. My family and I are enjoying a 19th century bucolic homestead, out of doors most days, maintaining a robust vigilance, eating well, staying warm, raising and educating children and so on.
In short, my family would make only the few adjustments brought on by the failure of high current commercial power, abandonment of motor transport in favor of our mules, and no mechanical refrigeration.
So I am now truly vexed with the question: Just how many folks are like me? What are the numbers of people who will not have any need to leave their homes? Do you have an idea of the numbers? I’d love to know your thoughts. Sincerely, – Tom H.
JWR Replies: Know the numbers is nigh-on impossible, since exact situations cannot be predicted. It is possible, however, to draw some conclusions based on some fairly safe general assumptions. At the core, it all depends on the big linchpin: grid-up, or grid-down. Without grid power for an extended period of time, most cities and even many suburbs will become uninhabitable. I suspect that in a grid-up situation, most people will stay put. But in a grid-down situation, there may be huge numbers of refugees.